18
DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE II EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report provides detailed statewide travel impact estimates for Washington from 1991 to 2012 and estimates of U.S. travel, derived primarily from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts. All estimates for 2012 are preliminary. The Washington State travel industry continued to show improvement in 2012, following the steep decline in travel in 2009 in the state and the nation. Perhaps most notably, travel-generated employment grew by a substantial 2.7 percent. Employment should continue to expand providing that visitation and spending continue to grow. Total Spending. Travel spending in Washington State was $16.9 billion in 2012. This represents a 4.4 percent increase over 2011 in current dollars and 2.6 percent inf real dollars (adjusted for inflation). In real dollars, this is the greatest increase in travel spending since 2005-06. Visitation. Visitation to Washington State also grew in 2012. The total number of overnight person-trips (36.4 million) increased by 2.1 percent. The preliminary estimate of visitor air travel on domestic flights to Washington (5.9 million) also increased by 2.1 percent. Room demand, as measured by Smith Travel Research increased by 3.3 percent for the year. Tax Receipts. As with the increase in travel spending, total local and state tax receipts generated by travel spending increased by 4.9 percent from 2011 to 2012. Lodging tax revenues increased by 7.8 percent. In 2012p, local and state tax revenues supported by the travel industry amounted to amounted to more than $1 billion. This is equivalent to $390 for every resident household. Employment. Travel-generated employment (153,300 in 2012p) increased for the second consecutive year following the steep decline brought on by the 2008-2010 recession. The rate of increase was 2.7 percent. International Travel. Spending by international visitors to Washington State was $1.9 billion in 2012p. This represents over 13 percent of all visitor spending in the state. Average Spending. Overnight visitors to Washington State spent, on average $98 per person-day and $299 per person-trip. Overnight visitors that stayed in hotels, motels and B&Bs spent $202 per person-day and $499 per person-trip. These overnight guests accounted for one-half of all visitor spending in the state.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - res-3.cloudinary.com · Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Spending

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Page 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - res-3.cloudinary.com · Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Spending

DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE II

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report provides detailed statewide travel impact estimates for Washington from 1991

to 2012 and estimates of U.S. travel, derived primarily from the Bureau of Economic

Analysis Travel and Tourism Satellite Accounts. All estimates for 2012 are preliminary.

The Washington State travel industry continued to show improvement in 2012, following

the steep decline in travel in 2009 in the state and the nation. Perhaps most notably,

travel-generated employment grew by a substantial 2.7 percent. Employment should

continue to expand providing that visitation and spending continue to grow.

Total Spending. Travel spending in Washington State was $16.9 billion in 2012.

This represents a 4.4 percent increase over 2011 in current dollars and 2.6 percent

inf real dollars (adjusted for inflation). In real dollars, this is the greatest increase in

travel spending since 2005-06.

Visitation. Visitation to Washington State also grew in 2012. The total number of

overnight person-trips (36.4 million) increased by 2.1 percent. The preliminary

estimate of visitor air travel on domestic flights to Washington (5.9 million) also

increased by 2.1 percent. Room demand, as measured by Smith Travel Research

increased by 3.3 percent for the year.

Tax Receipts. As with the increase in travel spending, total local and state tax

receipts generated by travel spending increased by 4.9 percent from 2011 to 2012.

Lodging tax revenues increased by 7.8 percent. In 2012p, local and state tax

revenues supported by the travel industry amounted to amounted to more than $1

billion. This is equivalent to $390 for every resident household.

Employment. Travel-generated employment (153,300 in 2012p) increased for the

second consecutive year following the steep decline brought on by the 2008-2010

recession. The rate of increase was 2.7 percent.

International Travel. Spending by international visitors to Washington State was

$1.9 billion in 2012p. This represents over 13 percent of all visitor spending in the

state.

Average Spending. Overnight visitors to Washington State spent, on average $98

per person-day and $299 per person-trip. Overnight visitors that stayed in hotels,

motels and B&Bs spent $202 per person-day and $499 per person-trip. These

overnight guests accounted for one-half of all visitor spending in the state.

Page 2: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - res-3.cloudinary.com · Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Spending

DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 1

I. U.S. TRAVEL

Page 3: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - res-3.cloudinary.com · Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Spending

DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 2

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12p

Touri

sm O

utp

ut

(Bil

lions)

Current

Real

$580

$600

$620

$640

$660

$680

$700

$720

09-2 09-4 10-2 10-4 11-2 11-4 11-2

Rea

l Touri

sm O

utp

ut

(Bil

lions)

Year-Quarter

All of the estimates in this section are preliminary. The estimates for spending and

employment were made by Dean Runyan Associates and are based on three

quarters of data. International arrival data was available only through August of

2012.

The following two graphs are derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel

and Tourism Satellite Accounts.1 Both graphs show direct tourism output for the

United States – spending by domestic and international visitors.

1 See www.bea.gov/industry/index.htm. Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates

and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates.

Spending by domestic

and international visitors

was $856 billion in

2012(preliminary) in

current dollars. This

represents a 5.2 percent

increase over 2011.

When adjusted for

changes in prices

(constant dollars),

spending increased by

2.7 percent – compared

to a 3.2 percent increase

from 2010 to 2011. In

real terms, tourism

output has still not

recovered from the steep

decline from 2007 to

2009.

Real travel spending has

increased in every

quarter since the third

quarter of 2009. The

average quarterly rate of

increase during this

period has been 0.7

percent. The average

quarterly rate of decrease

from 2008-Q1 to 2009-

Q2 was 2.8 percent.

Annual Direct Travel Spending in U.S., 2000-12p

Direct Travel Spending in U.S.

2009-Q1 to 2011-Q3 Annualized Seasonally Adjusted in 2005 Dollars

Page 4: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - res-3.cloudinary.com · Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Spending

DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 3

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2010 2011 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

00 02 04 06 08 10 12p

Europe Asia Other

$75

$85

$95

$105

$115

$125

$135

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

00 02 04 06 08 10 12p

Inte

rnatio

nal Sp

en

din

g (B

illio

n)

Inte

rnatio

nal Sh

are

Share Spend

The following three graphs are concerned with international travel to the U.S. The

first graph is derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis Travel and Tourism

Satellite Accounts and International Transactions.2 The following two graphs are

derived from the monthly (through August) international arrival data released by the

Office of Travel and Tourism Industries.3

2 See www.bea.gov/international/index.htm for quarterly international estimates of travel and tourism

exports (travel to the U.S. by international visitors). Preliminary 2011 estimates by Dean Runyan

Associates

3 See http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/research/monthly/index.html. Preliminary 2012 estimates by Dean

Runyan Associates.

International Direct Travel Spending in U.S.

Amounts in Real Dollars (Billions) International Share of U.S. Internal Travel*

Overseas Arrivals (Millions)

In real dollars, spending by

international visitors in the U.S.

increased by 8.2 percent from

2011 to 2012 (preliminary) – the

third continual year of growth.

The international share of U.S.

travel spending in 2011 was 15

percent – compared to 11

percent in 2003.

*Airfares for international flights on

U.S. air carriers are not included.

Much of the recent increase in

international visitor spending, has

been due to favorable exchange

rates with respect to the U.S. dollar.

Overseas arrivals to the U.S.

increased by 5.8% in 2011 and by a

similar amount in 2012.

It should also be noted that the

increased share of international

spending in recent years is in part a

function of the relatively modest

sluggish growth of domestic travel

spending.

Page 5: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - res-3.cloudinary.com · Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Spending

DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 4

24.6

24.8

25.0

25.2

25.4

25.6

25.8

26.0

26.2

26.4

26.6

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Avera

ge W

eekly

Ho

urs

2009 2010 2011 2012

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.9

6.0

08-2 08-4 09-2 09-4 10-2 10-4 11-2 11-4 12-2

Millio

ns

of Jo

bs

Travel industry employment has also exhibited modest growth since the second

quarter of 2010. The average quarterly growth (seasonally adjusted) has been 0.5

percent. This compares with an average quarterly decline of 1.6 percent from the

first quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2010. The fact that travel industry

employment has not recovered is a reflection of the trend in real travel spending

(see previous graph). It is also a reflection of the fact that changes in employment

typically lag changes in spending and business receipts – employers tend to

lengthen the hours of existing employees and improve their balance sheets prior to

hiring new workers following steep recessions.

U.S. Travel Industry Employment, 2008-Q1 to 2012-Q3 Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates

In this regard, average weekly hours have generally increased since the second

quarter of 2010. This suggests that employment in leisure and hospitality will

continue to expand with moderate growth in travel activity.

U.S. Leisure & Hospitality Sector Average Weekly Hours, 2009-Q1 to 2012-Q4

Source: Bureau of Labor

Statistics Current Employment

Survey. The Leisure and

Hospitality sectors include all

businesses in arts,

entertainment and recreation

(NAICS 71) and

accommodation and food services (NAICS 72).

Source: Bureau of

Economic Analysis

Travel & Tourism

Satellite Accounts.

Page 6: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - res-3.cloudinary.com · Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Spending

DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 5

Washington State

II. WASHINGTON STATE TRAVEL

Page 7: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - res-3.cloudinary.com · Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Spending

DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 6

Spending Earnings Employment Tax Receipts ($Million)

($Billion) ($Billion) (Thousand) Local State Federal

1991 7.3 2.1 134.6 99 294 414

1992 7.6 2.2 134.0 103 305 430

1993 7.9 2.2 135.4 111 321 440

1994 8.1 2.3 136.5 118 333 450

1995 8.5 2.5 140.3 128 355 474

1996 9.0 2.6 137.9 146 371 498

1997 9.4 2.7 139.2 165 388 519

1998 9.8 2.8 139.9 182 404 543

1999 10.2 3.0 144.1 197 424 577

2000 11.2 3.4 149.2 220 445 644

2001 10.9 3.4 148.2 224 443 645

2002 10.8 3.4 143.7 229 448 658

2003 11.2 3.6 145.7 236 468 670

2004 12.0 3.7 146.1 255 498 714

2005 13.0 3.9 149.8 276 529 756

2006 14.2 4.1 152.6 321 569 792

2007 14.9 4.3 154.5 352 599 827

2008 15.4 4.3 155.6 360 613 828

2009 14.7 4.3 149.5 331 593 830

2010 15.4 4.3 146.6 350 614 846

2011 16.2 4.6 149.2 368 645 800

2012p 16.9 4.7 153.3 388 674 831

Annual Percentage Change11-12p 4.4 4.3 2.7 5.5 4.5 3.9

91-12p 4.1 3.9 0.6 6.7 4.0 3.4

Washington State Travel Trends, 1991-2012p

SUMMARY OF WASHINGTON STATE TRAVEL

Recent travel trends in Washington State have been similar to national trends. Visitor

spending in the state increased by 4.4 percent from 2011 to 2012 (preliminary). In real

dollars (adjusted for inflation, travel spending increased by 2.6 percent (see first graph,

page 7).

Local and state tax revenues, which are primarily comprised of sales taxes, grew by 5.5

percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.

The preliminary estimate of travel-generated employment shows a 2.7 percent increase

from 2011 to 2012, following a 1.8 percent increase the previous year. The growth in jobs

is encouraging given the sharp decline in employment during the recent recession and

moderate increases in travel spending over the past three years. Travel-generated

employment should continue to expand as visitation to destinations within the state grows.

Page 8: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - res-3.cloudinary.com · Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Spending

DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 7

Real

Current

$10

$11

$12

$13

$14

$15

$16

$17

$18

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12p

Trav

el

Spe

nd

ing

(Bill

ion

s)

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12p

Vis

itor

Arr

ival

s (M

illi

ons)

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12p

Ove

rnig

ht

Per

son-T

rips

(Millio

ns)

WASHINGTON STATE TRAVEL TRENDS

Visitor Air Arrivals to Washington State

Domestic Flights

Washington State Overnight Visitor Volume Person-Trips

Travel Spending in Washington State Real and Current Dollars

The first graph expresses travel

spending in Washington State in

current dollars (no adjustment for price

changes) and inflation-adjusted real

dollars. Real travel spending is now

slightly above the previous high in

2007.

Note: Travel spending was adjusted with a composite of price indices for the West Urban CPI, and, for Washington State, lodging rates from Smith Travel Research, gasoline prices reported by the Energy Information Administration and airfares from the Department of Transportation.

Visitor volume, as measured by the

number of overnight person-trips to

Washington State shows a similar

pattern. Differences are due to the

composition of visitor volume (about

one-half stay overnight in the unpaid

accommodations but contribute

proportionately less to spending), the

effect of price changes, and the

measure of visitor volume (trips versus

nights).

Note: Visitor volume estimates calculated by Dean Runyan Associates. See appendix for data sources.

Finally, visitor air arrivals also reflect

the overall trend in real travel

spending. Most visitors that travel by

air stay in commercial lodging or have

long lengths of stay in private homes.

Note: Estimates of visitor arrivals calculated by Dean Runyan Associates from Department of Transportation Origin and Destination Survey.

Page 9: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - res-3.cloudinary.com · Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Spending

DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 8

Washington34%

Other U.S.55%

International11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

*All Trips

Nights

Other U.S.

Washington

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

$1.8

$2.0

00 02 04 06 08 10 12p

Inte

rnat

ional

Shar

e

Inte

rnat

ional

Spen

din

g

(Bil

lions

of

Rea

l 2012 $

US) Spending Share

INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL TO WASHINGTON STATE AND VISITOR ORIGIN

Visitor Spending in Washington

State by Origin (2007-2011 Average)

Domestic Travel to Washington State (2007-2011 Average)

International Travel Spending in Washington State

In recent years, residents of other

states and countries have accounted

for about two-thirds of all visitor

spending in Washington State –

eleven percent international and

fifty-five percent other states in the

U.S. (See pie chart, left.)

Even though residents of

Washington State generate only

about one-third of all visitor

spending, they comprise almost

two-thirds of all trips to destinations

within Washington State (bottom

bar, middle graph). Most spending

is attributable to overnight stays,

and out-of-state visitors tend to have

longer lengths of stay.

Note: The estimates for the first two graphs on this page were calculated by Dean Runyan Associates from TNS TravelsAmerica survey data.

As with the larger U.S. (see graph

preceding section), both absolute

international spending and the

international share of Washington

travel spending have increased

during the past three years.

Favorable exchange rates with

respect to Asia and Canada have

been factors as well as increased

visitation.

Note: Estimates by Dean Runyan Associates based on Bureau of Economic Analysis International Transactions and arrival data from the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries.

Page 10: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - res-3.cloudinary.com · Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Spending

DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 9

Aerospace,

$11.8

Software,

$10.6*Other

Manf., $7.0

Food, $6.2

Travel, $4.6

Wood, $2.3

Micro-Elec.,

$2.1

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Software

Agric. & Food Prod.

Forestry & Wood Prod.

*Other Manf.

Travel

Aero-Space

Micro-Elec.

WASHINGTON STATE EXPORT INDUSTRIES

Exports are not necessarily more important than locally traded goods and services.

However, diverse export-oriented industries in any economy are a source of strength – in

part because they generate income that contributes to the development of other local

services and amenities. Such industries characterize the “comparative advantage” of the

local economy within larger regional, national, and global markets.

As shown in the graph below, while the travel industry ranks in the middle with respect to

earnings growth since 2006, it has been more stable than most other industries.

Earnings of Washington State

Export-oriented Industries 2011 (Millions)

Earnings of Washington State Export-oriented Industries Year 2006 = 100

Export-oriented industries are those

industries that primarily market their

products and services to other

regions, states or nations.

Agriculture, extractive industries

(forestry, mining) and manufacturing

are the best examples of export-

oriented industries. In addition,

professional and business services

are often export-oriented. The travel

industry is also an export-oriented

industry because goods and services

are sold to visitors, rather than

residents. The travel industry injects

money into the local economy, as do

the exports of other industries.

Estimates calculated by

Dean Runyan Associates

from earnings and payroll

data reported by Bureau of

Economic Analysis and

Bureau of Labor Statistics.

*Other Manufacturing

includes all manufacturing

industries not included in

aerospace, agriculture/food,

forestry & wood, and

microelectronics. Food &

beverage processing

included in

Agriculture/Food category.

Wood and paper products

included in Forestry & Wood category.

Page 11: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - res-3.cloudinary.com · Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Spending

DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 10

Federal

$831

Local

$388

State

$655

Local Sales

$187

State Sales

$489

Lodging

$145

Auto

Rental$30

*PFC

$27

Motor Fuel

$107

B & O

$59

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12p

Tax

Re

ceip

ts (

Mill

ion

s)

WA State Conv. Center

Tour. Promotion Area

Additional 2-5%

State-Shared 2%

Millions Percent

WA State Conv. Center $61.8 42.7%

State-Shared 2% $44.6 30.8%

Additional 2-5% $31.2 21.6%

Tour. Promotion Area $7.1 4.9%

Total Revenues $144.7 100.0%

Lodging Tax Revenues, 2012p

TRAVEL-GENERATED TAX REVENUE

Travel spending in Washington state

generated $1.9 billion in local, state, and

federal tax collections in 2012. The

estimated federal tax receipts are comprised

of the motor fuel excise tax, airline ticket

taxes, and payroll and income taxes.1

More than $1 billion local and state tax

revenues were collected in 2012. The largest

share of these tax receipts was attributable to

the state sales tax ($489 million). Receipts

from local sales tax receipts ($187 million),

lodging taxes ($145 million) and motor fuel

($107 million) were also significant sources

of tax revenue.

Travel-generate local and state tax revenues

represent roughly five percent of all local and

state tax revenues, exclusive of property tax

collections. Visitor spending generates

almost $400 in tax revenue for each

Washington household. Note: *PFC refers to the Passenger Facility Charges collected at Washington state airports.

Transient Lodging Tax Receipts in Washington State

Local, State & Federal Travel-Generated Tax Revenues, 2012p

Local & State Travel-Generated Tax

Revenues, 2012p

Page 12: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - res-3.cloudinary.com · Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Spending

DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 11

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012p

Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million)

Destination Spending 9,283 10,358 12,120 13,255 13,129 13,819 14,457

Other Travel* 1,546 1,684 2,063 2,153 2,307 2,385 2,460

Total Direct Spending 10,828 12,043 14,183 15,408 15,436 16,204 16,917

Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million)

Accommodations 1,412 1,564 1,953 2,223 2,038 2,158 2,303

Food Service 2,257 2,525 2,867 3,113 3,250 3,395 3,596

Food Stores 719 794 852 961 957 1,014 1,050

Local Tran. & Gas 1,186 1,543 2,044 2,465 2,237 2,521 2,623

Arts, Ent. & Rec. 1,285 1,388 1,498 1,534 1,518 1,557 1,613

Retail Sales 1,492 1,524 1,633 1,637 1,673 1,723 1,781

Visitor Air Tran. 932 1,020 1,274 1,323 1,457 1,451 1,491

Destination Spending 9,283 10,358 12,120 13,255 13,129 13,819 14,457

Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million)

Accom. & Food Serv. 1,376 1,517 1,756 1,928 1,885 1,976 2,091

Arts, Ent. & Rec. 681 733 815 835 767 787 818

Retail** 320 349 374 390 392 403 419

Ground Tran. 202 214 237 253 256 263 273

Visitor Air Tran. 295 314 320 297 350 383 390

Other Travel* 556 595 635 610 672 739 755

Total Direct Earnings 3,431 3,724 4,138 4,313 4,323 4,550 4,747

Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs)

Accom. & Food Serv. 65.9 68.5 73.8 76.4 70.9 72.9 75.1

Arts, Ent. & Rec. 38.7 38.6 39.3 39.7 38.0 38.1 39.7

Retail** 14.7 15.3 15.7 15.5 15.3 15.4 15.6

Ground Tran. 9.1 9.6 9.4 9.2 8.9 9.0 9.1

Visitor Air Tran. 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.5

Other Travel* 10.1 9.4 9.7 10.0 9.0 9.3 9.3

Total Direct Employment 143.7 146.1 152.6 155.6 146.6 149.2 153.3

Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million)

Local Tax Receipts 229 255 321 360 350 368 388

State Tax Receipts 448 498 569 613 614 645 674

Federal Tax Receipts 658 714 792 828 846 800 831

Total Direct Tax Receipts 1,335 1,467 1,682 1,801 1,810 1,813 1,894

Details may not add to totals due to rounding.

Washington State Travel Impacts, 2002-2012p

*Other Travel includes resident air travel and travel agencies. **Retail includes gasoline.

DETAILED ECONOMIC IMPACTS

The detailed direct travel Impact estimates shown below do not include secondary (indirect

and induced) impacts. An estimate of one-way airfare to Washington State is included.

Total earnings include wage and salary disbursements, other earned income, and

proprietor income. Employment includes full- and part-time payroll employees and

proprietors.

Page 13: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - res-3.cloudinary.com · Released December 17, 2012. Preliminary 2012 estimates and constant (2012) travel spending estimates by Dean Runyan Associates. Spending

DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 12

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012p

Visitor Spending by Type of Traveler Accommodation ($Million)

All Overnight 7,283 8,132 9,578 10,469 10,369 10,899 11,423

Hotel, Motel 4,520 5,098 6,098 6,670 6,484 6,863 7,273

Private Home 2,237 2,472 2,840 3,083 3,192 3,316 3,416

Other Overnight 527 561 640 715 693 720 735

Campground 369 394 460 521 497 516 527

Vacation Home 158 168 181 194 196 204 208

Day Travel 1,999 2,227 2,543 2,787 2,760 2,920 3,034

Destination Spending 9,283 10,358 12,120 13,255 13,129 13,819 14,457

Washington State Visitor Spending, 2002-2012p

Party Length of

Day Trip Day Trip Size Stay (nights)

Hotel, Motel $458 $1,152 $202 $499 2.3 2.5

Private Home $122 $430 $55 $189 2.2 3.5

Other Overnight $156 $521 $57 $189 2.7 3.3

All Overnight $225 $697 $98 $299 2.3 3.1

Average Expenditures for Overnight Visitors, 2012p

Travel Party Person

2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012

Hotel, Motel 33.6 34.6 36.0 14.8 15.3 15.9

Private Home 60.9 61.4 62.0 27.5 27.8 28.1

Other Overnight 12.9 12.7 12.7 4.7 4.6 4.6

All Overnight 107.4 108.7 110.7 47.0 47.6 48.5

2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012

Hotel, Motel 13.6 14.0 14.6 5.9 6.1 6.3

Private Home 17.7 17.9 18.1 7.8 7.9 7.9

Other Overnight 3.9 3.8 3.8 1.4 1.4 1.4

All Overnight 35.2 35.7 36.4 15.1 15.3 15.6

Overnight Visitor Volume, 2010-2012p

Person-Nights (Million) Party-Nights (Million)

Person-Trips (Million) Party-Trips (Million)

OVERNIGHT VISITOR VOLUME AND AVERAGE SPENDING

The following three tables are inter-related. The first, Visitor Spending by Type of Traveler

Accommodation, reports the total annual spending estimates for each type of visitor. The

second, Average Expenditures for Overnight Visitors, reports the average daily and average

trip expenditures for each type of visitor for 2012p. The third table, Overnight Visitor

Volume, reports annual visitor volume for each type of visitor. Volume is broken out in

terms of trips and nights and visitors (persons) and travel parties. In general, multiplication

of an average spending numbers with the appropriate volume number will yield the annual

total spending number for that type of visitor. (See appendix C, page 20.)

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DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 13

2.6 2.6

4.7 4.7

9.6

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

Spending ($16.9) GDP ($7.4)

Billio

ns

$9.6 Inputs

$4.7 Earnings

$2.6 Surplus & Taxes

WASHINGTON STATE TRAVEL INDUSTRY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is often used as a measure of an industry’s economic size

or value. In concept, industry GDP is equal to gross output (sales or receipts) minus

intermediate inputs (the goods and services purchased from other industries). GDP is

always smaller than output or sales because GDP measures only the “value added” of an

industry and does not include the cost of the inputs that are also necessary to produce a

good or service.

More than half of all travel spending in Washington can be attributed to intermediate

inputs and goods resold at retail. Intermediate inputs cover a range of goods and services

that are purchased by travel industry businesses for the purpose of creating a product or

service for the traveler. For example, lodging establishments purchase cable television

services. Restaurants purchase food and beverages from vendors. In both cases, these

inputs are classified as the GDP of other industries. In addition, travel spending occurs at

many retail establishments where the goods purchased from the retailer are purchased as

finished goods from suppliers. These resold goods are also counted as products of other

industries. This would include motor fuel, groceries, and most of the commodities sold at

retail establishments.

Estimates of travel spending and travel industry GDP are shown in the chart below.

Washington travel industry GDP amounted to $7.4 billion in 2012p. In recent years, the

state travel industry GDP has represented more than two percent of total state GDP.

Sources: Dean Runyan Associates and Bureau of

Economic Analysis. Details may not add to totals

due to rounding.

Washington State Travel Industry Gross Domestic Product, 2012p

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DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 123

Visitor Spending Impacts (2011p)

Amount of Visitor Spending that supports 1 job $78,100

Employee Earnings generated by $100 Visitor Spending $34

Local Tax Revenues generated by $100 Visitor Spending $2.70

Visitor Volume (2011p)

Additional visitor spending if each resident household encouraged

one additional overnight visitor (in thousands) $40,060

Additional employment if each resident household encouraged

one additional overnight visitor 513

Visitor Shares

Travel Share of Total Employment (2010)* 3.5%

Visitor Share of Taxable Sales (2010)** 6.7%

Ratio of Overnight Vistors to Resident Population (2011p) 4 :1

Travel Indicators

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Hotel-Motel

Private Home

Percent of All Overnight, 2011p

Person-Nights

Spending

Person Person Visitor

2011p Trips Nights Spending

(Thousands) (Thousands) (Millions)

Hotel, Motel 1,201.5 2,350.1 $373.5

Private Home 1,301.7 3,548.7 $144.2

Other Overnight 74.4 222.8 $11.5

All Overnight 2,577.6 6,121.6 $529.2

SPOKANE COUNTY TRAVEL IMPACTS AND VISITOR VOLUME

*Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Estimates

by Dean Runyan Associates.

**Source: Washington State Department

of Revenue Quarterly Business Review.

Visitors that stay in private

homes typically comprise the

largest share of overnight visitor

volume. Visitors that stay

overnight in commercial

lodging typically have the

greatest economic impact.

There is substantial variation

among counties, however.

Most rural and suburban

counties have high shares of

private home visitation. Urban

counties tend to have greater

shares of hotel/motel stays.

Overnight Visitor Spending and Volume

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PAGE 124 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES

Spending Earnings Employment

($Millions) ($Millions) Local State Total

1991 515.0 131.6 8,980 7,179 19,444 26,623

1992 542.5 137.0 8,990 7,556 20,286 27,842

1993 586.6 141.5 9,120 8,099 21,614 29,713

1994 614.9 147.1 9,250 8,519 22,364 30,883

1995 644.6 154.1 9,290 8,913 23,263 32,176

1996 702.2 163.6 9,300 9,998 24,722 34,720

1997 692.9 163.9 9,060 9,946 24,867 34,813

1998 704.8 170.0 9,090 9,986 25,794 35,780

1999 712.0 173.3 8,560 10,013 25,962 35,976

2000 697.8 175.0 8,060 9,993 25,085 35,078

2001 715.9 189.9 8,470 10,322 27,014 37,336

2002 714.8 191.4 8,380 11,100 27,600 38,700

2003 788.9 216.7 9,130 12,281 31,000 43,281

2004 855.1 224.8 9,040 13,943 32,885 46,828

2005 910.0 232.4 9,010 15,584 33,752 49,336

2006 996.5 245.4 9,380 16,392 35,789 52,181

2007 1,063.0 265.5 9,620 18,062 38,843 56,905

2008 1,081.1 263.5 9,570 17,969 39,087 57,056

2009 1,088.5 253.1 9,290 16,828 37,644 54,472

2010 1,174.9 254.6 9,240 18,239 38,692 56,931

2011p 1,096.8 253.2 9,060 17,603 38,406 56,009

Annual Percentage Change

10-11p -6.6% -0.6% -2.0% -3.5% -0.7% -1.6%

91-11p 3.9% 3.3% 0.0% 4.6% 3.5% 3.8%

Tax Receipts ($Thousands)

Spokane County Travel Trends, 1991-2011p

Notes: Spending includes visitor spending and other travel spending (travel agencies and

transportation related to travel to other destinations). Earnings include wage and salary

disbursements, benefits and proprietor income. Employment includes full- and part-time

payroll employees and proprietors. These direct travel impacts do not include secondary

(indirect and induced) impacts. The multiple year percentage change refers to the average

annual change.

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DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES PAGE 125

2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011p

Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million)

Destination Spending 469.9 558.4 606.7 669.2 631.4 655.9 661.2

Other Travel* 244.9 296.7 389.8 411.9 457.0 518.9 435.6

Total Direct Spending 714.8 855.1 996.5 1,081.1 1,088.5 1,174.9 1,096.8

Visitor Spending by Commodity Purchased ($Million)

Accommodations 78.4 97.3 111.1 129.2 119.1 125.2 122.8

Food Service 123.6 148.8 161.0 177.1 174.2 180.1 180.6

Food Stores 43.4 51.1 53.2 60.8 58.4 59.5 61.6

Local Tran. & Gas 57.7 74.8 89.2 105.2 90.5 97.8 104.1

Arts, Ent. & Rec. 75.0 86.2 89.1 92.3 88.3 89.3 88.3

Retail Sales 91.7 100.1 103.1 104.5 100.9 104.2 103.6

Destination Spending 469.9 558.4 606.7 669.2 631.4 655.9 661.2

Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million)

Accom. & Food Serv. 79.8 96.0 103.9 115.9 114.1 115.6 117.3

Arts, Ent. & Rec. 59.0 67.6 71.8 74.5 69.7 67.7 66.3

Retail** 19.4 22.5 23.2 24.5 23.7 24.3 24.4

Ground Tran. 12.7 14.2 15.0 16.2 16.0 16.1 15.9

Other Travel* 20.4 24.6 31.4 32.4 29.6 30.9 29.2

Total Direct Earnings 191.4 224.8 245.4 263.5 253.1 254.6 253.2

Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Jobs)

Accom. & Food Serv. 3,750 4,230 4,330 4,490 4,330 4,410 4,380

Arts, Ent. & Rec. 2,620 2,630 2,850 2,880 2,880 2,760 2,650

Retail** 870 940 930 920 890 910 900

Ground Tran. 570 630 590 590 570 560 540

Other Travel* 570 610 680 690 610 610 590

Total Direct Employment 8,380 9,040 9,380 9,570 9,290 9,240 9,060

Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million)

Local Tax Receipts 11.1 13.9 16.4 18.0 16.8 18.2 17.6

State Tax Receipts 27.6 32.9 35.8 39.1 37.6 38.7 38.4

Total Local & State 38.7 46.8 52.2 57.1 54.5 56.9 56.0

Details may not add to totals due to rounding.

Spokane County

Travel Impacts, 2002-2011p

*Other Travel includes air travel and ground transportation impacts for travel to other Washington visitor

destinations, and travel agencies. **Retail includes gasoline.

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PAGE 126 DEAN RUNYAN ASSOCIATES

2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011p

All Overnight 374.2 447.9 487.5 538.3 507.3 527.1 529.2

Hotel, Motel 260.0 322.6 351.3 389.1 362.6 375.8 373.5

Private Home 106.7 116.6 127.2 138.2 134.4 140.5 144.2

Other Overnight 7.5 8.6 9.0 11.0 10.3 10.8 11.5

Campground 4.9 5.9 6.1 7.9 7.2 7.7 8.2

Vacation Home 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3

Day Travel 95.7 110.5 119.2 130.9 124.1 128.8 131.9

Spending at Destination 469.9 558.4 606.7 669.2 631.4 655.9 661.2

Visitor Spending by Type of Traveler Accommodation ($Million), 2002-2011p

Spokane County Visitor Spending and Visitor Volume

Party Length of

Day Trip Day Trip Size Stay (nights)

Hotel, Motel $334 $675 $159 $311 2.1 2.0

Private Home $82 $236 $41 $111 2.0 2.9

Other Overnight $141 $423 $52 $155 2.7 3.0

All Overnight $179 $444 $86 $205 2.1 2.5

Average Expenditures for Overnight Visitors, 2011p

Travel Party Person

2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011

Hotel, Motel 2,378 2,409 2,350 1,127 1,147 1,117

Private Home 3,459 3,553 3,549 1,710 1,762 1,752

Other Overnight 215 218 223 79 80 82

All Overnight 6,052 6,180 6,122 2,916 2,989 2,951

2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011

Hotel, Motel 1,216 1,232 1,202 559 568 553

Private Home 1,269 1,303 1,302 597 614 612

Other Overnight 72 73 74 26 27 27

All Overnight 2,556 2,608 2,578 1,181 1,208 1,192

Overnight Visitor Volume, 2009-2011p

Person-Nights (000) Party-Nights (000)

Person-Trips (000) Party-Trips (000)