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Allerdale Borough Council

Housing Study

2016

Allerdale Borough Council

Final ReportMay 2016

Main Contact: Dr Michael BullockEmail: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133Website: www .arc4.co.uk

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Allerdale 2016 Housing Study Page | 2

Table of ContentsExecutive Summary.....................................................................................................8

1. Introduction.....................................................................................................12

Background and objectives.............................................................................12National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) requirements............................12Definitions.......................................................................................................13Geography......................................................................................................14Research methodology...................................................................................17Presentation of data........................................................................................17Report structure..............................................................................................17

2. Policy and strategic review..............................................................................19

Introduction.....................................................................................................19Local strategic priorities...................................................................................19Concluding comments.....................................................................................21

3. Defining the Housing Market Area..................................................................22

Introduction.....................................................................................................22House prices and rates of change in house prices..........................................23Relative affordability........................................................................................27Household migration and search patterns.......................................................33Travel to work trends.......................................................................................37Concluding comments.....................................................................................38

4. Understanding the current housing market position in Allerdale.....................39

Introduction.....................................................................................................39Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure..........39Relative affordability of housing options..........................................................58Estate and letting agent review.......................................................................62Concluding comments.....................................................................................67

5. Understanding the future housing market in Allerdale.....................................68

Introduction.....................................................................................................68Key market drivers..........................................................................................68Suggested future development profile of market dwellings.............................75Concluding comments.....................................................................................77

6. Housing need..................................................................................................79

Introduction.....................................................................................................79Current households in need............................................................................79Affordable housing requirements....................................................................82Estimates of household groups who have particular housing requirements. . .86Summary.........................................................................................................99

7. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues.........................................................100

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The Housing Market Area.............................................................................100The current housing market..........................................................................100Housing markets and mobility.......................................................................101Future housing market..................................................................................101Housing need and demand...........................................................................101NPPF requirements.......................................................................................104Final comments.............................................................................................104

Introduction to Technical Appendices......................................................................105

Technical Appendix A: Research Methodology.......................................................106

Technical Appendix B: Policy Review......................................................................111

Technical Appendix C: Housing need calculations..................................................123

Technical Appendix D: Monitoring and updating......................................................142

List of TablesTable ES1 Gross annual affordable housing imbalance by SHMA, property

size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 (excluding affordable supply)..................................................................................................10

Table ES2 Net annual affordable housing imbalance by SHMA, property size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 (including affordable supply)......10

Table ES3 Open market dwelling stock and preferences.......................................11

Table 3.1 House prices in Allerdale by ward during 2014 and 2015....................25

Table 3.2 Relative affordability of lower quartile (LQ) prices by District (residence based).................................................................................27

Table 3.3 Relative affordability of median prices by District (residence base).....27

Table 3.4 Origin of moving households................................................................33

Table 3.5 Residential mobility – movement between different tenures................35

Table 3.6 Residential mobility – profile of properties moved into by type and size.......................................................................................................35

Table 3.7 First choice destination of households planning to move in next five years.....................................................................................................36

Table 3.7 First choice destination of households planning to move in next five years.....................................................................................................37

Table 4.1 Dwelling stock and occupancy by SHMA.............................................39

Table 4.2 Property type and size of occupied dwellings in Allerdale....................40

Table 4.3 Dissatisfaction with state of repair by housing market area, property tenure and type.....................................................................................44

Table 4.4 Repair problems by property tenure.....................................................45

Table 4.5 Repair problems by housing market area.............................................45

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Table 4.6 Lower Quartile and median house price and income required to be affordable.............................................................................................49

Table 4.7 Profile of private rented sector in Allerdale...........................................52

Table 4.8 High income household dwelling aspirations and expectations............58

Table 4.9 Cost of alternative tenure options for Allerdale.....................................59

Table 4.10 Assumptions in assessing income required for alternative tenure options..................................................................................................60

Table 5.1 Primary market drivers.........................................................................68

Table 5.2 Projected population change, 2015 to 2037.........................................69

Table 5.3 Ranking of priorities by stakeholders....................................................70

Table 5.4 Dwelling completions 2002/03 to 2014/15............................................73

Table 5.5 Open market dwelling stock and preferences.......................................76

Table 5.6 Open market dwelling stock and preferences.......................................76

Table 5.7a Comparison between current dwelling stock and market aspirations...78

Table 5.7b Comparison between current dwelling stock and market expectations.........................................................................................78

Table 6.1 Housing need in Allerdale.....................................................................80

Table 6.2 Households in need by SHMA..............................................................81

Table 6.3 Housing need by tenure.......................................................................81

Table 6.4 Housing need by household type.........................................................82

Table 6.5 Gross annual affordable housing imbalance by SHMA, property size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 (excluding affordable supply)..................................................................................................83

Table 6.6 Net annual affordable housing imbalance by SHMA, property size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 (including affordable supply)......83

Table 6.7 Tenure preferences of existing households in need and newly-forming households requiring affordable housing.................................84

Table 6.8 Tenure preferences by Strategic HMA.................................................84

Table 6.9 Tenure preferences by SHMA of existing households in need and newly-forming households requiring affordable housing......................85

Table 6.10 Property type preferences....................................................................86

Table 6.11 Property type preferences by Strategic HMA.......................................86

Table 6.12 Property type preferences – Families...................................................88

Table 6.13 Illness/disability.....................................................................................89

Table 6.14 Older persons’ housing options............................................................90

Table 6.15 Reasons why households containing a head of household aged 65 and over are unable to move................................................................91

Table 6.16 Dwelling aspirations and expectations of households containing a head of household aged 65 or over......................................................91

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Table 6.17 Future housing choices (upsizing/downsizing).....................................92

Table 6.18 Type of assistance required either now or in next 5 years by age group....................................................................................................92

Table 6.19 Type of assistance required either now or in next 5 years by when required................................................................................................93

Table 6.20 Adaptations required either now or in next 5 years by age group........93

Table 6.21 Type of adaptation required either now or in next 5 years by when required................................................................................................94

Table 6.22 Home improvements required either now or in next 5 years by age group....................................................................................................94

Table 6.23 Home improvements required either now or in next 5 years by when required................................................................................................95

Table 6.24 Client groups accommodated in social/affordable sector in Allerdale 2010/11 to 2012/13...............................................................................96

Table 6.25 Homeless decisions and acceptances 2010/11 to 2014/15..................97

Table 6.26 Characteristics of households previously homeless.............................98

Table A1 Household Survey sample information...............................................107

Table C1 CLG Needs Assessment Summary for Allerdale................................125

Table C2 CLG Needs Assessment by SHMA....................................................126

Table C3 Summary of current housing need across Allerdale...........................127

Table C4 Homeless decisions and acceptances 2010/11 to 2014/15................128

Table C5 Lower quartile house prices (£) 2014-15 by Parish...........................130

Table C6 Lower quartile private rents (£) 2014-15 by Parish............................131

Table C7 Annual social/affordable re-lets by SHMA..........................................134

Table C8 Intermediate tenure sales/relets by SHMA.........................................134

Table C9 Gross annual affordable housing imbalance by SHMA, property size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 (excluding affordable supply)................................................................................................136

Table C10 Net annual affordable housing imbalance by SHMA, property size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 (including affordable supply).. . .136

Table C11 Affordable tenure preferences............................................................137

Table C12 Tenure preferences by SHMA of existing households in need and newly-forming households requiring affordable housing....................138

Table C13 Ability of existing households in need and newly-forming households requiring affordable housing to afford intermediate tenure dwellings..................................................................................139

Table C14 Ability of existing households in need and newly-forming households requiring affordable housing to afford intermediate tenure dwellings by SHMA.................................................................139

Table C15 Property type preferences..................................................................140

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Table C16 Property type preferences by SHMA..................................................141

List of FiguresFigure 3.1 Median house price trends 2000 to 2015: Allerdale, the North West

and England.........................................................................................24

Figure 4.1 Property type by SHMA........................................................................41

Figure 4.2 Property size by SHMA........................................................................42

Figure 4.3 Allerdale: tenure profile of occupied dwellings......................................46

Figure 4.4 Allerdale tenure profile by SHMA.........................................................47

Figure 4.5 Allerdale household income and housing costs....................................61

Figure 5.1 Dwelling completions 2002/03 to 2014/15............................................73

List of MapsMap 1.1 Allerdale Context..................................................................................15

Map 1.2 Allerdale SHMAs..................................................................................16

Map 3.1 Median house prices 2015 by ward......................................................26

Map 3.2 Income required for a lower quartile open market property to be affordable by ward................................................................................29

Map 3.3 Relative affordability of lower quartile property prices compared with lower quartile household incomes by ward...........................................30

Map 3.4 Income required for a lower quartile open market property to be affordable by parish..............................................................................31

Map 3.5 Income required for a lower quartile open market property to be affordable by parish..............................................................................32

Map A1.1 SHMAs and Wards.............................................................................109

Map A1.2 Map of parishes also showing Lake District National Park Parish Clusters..............................................................................................110

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Please note that in this report some of the tables include rounded figures. This can result in some column or row totals not adding up to 100 or to the anticipated row or column ‘total’ due to the use of rounded decimal figures. We include this description here as it covers all tables and associated textual commentary included. If tables or figures are to be used in-house then we recommend the addition of a similarly worded statement being included as a note to each table used.

This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third party.

arc4 Limited accepts no responsibility or liability for, and makes no representation or warranty with respect to, the accuracy or completeness of any third party information (including data) that is contained in this document.

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Executive Summary

IntroductionThe Allerdale Housing Study 2016 provides the latest available evidence to help to shape the future planning and housing policies of the area. The study will help inform the preparation of the Housing Strategy and support the Local Plan. This research provides an up-to-date analysis of the social, economic, housing and demographic situation across the area.

The 2016 Housing Study has comprised:

A major Household Survey which was completed by 5,557 households, representing a 17.3% response rate;

An online survey of stakeholders;

Interviews with estate and letting agents; and

A review of existing (secondary) data.

The findings from the study provide an up-to-date, robust and defensible evidence base for policy development which supports Government’s National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG) requirements.

Housing market contextHouse pricesMedian house prices in Allerdale have generally tracked slightly lower than those for the North West region and England. House prices in Allerdale have tended to reflect regional trends between 2000 and 2010.

During 2015, median prices across Allerdale were £140,000 and lower quartile prices were £96,750. There are marked variations within Allerdale, in particular higher prices in the Lake District National Park.

Dwelling stockThis study assumes a total of 48,434 dwellings in Allerdale, with 46,396 occupied households, 857 vacant properties and 1,181 second homes.

Overall, the 2016 Household Survey shows that:

76.1% properties are houses, 15.4% are bungalows, 7.4% are flats/apartments or maisonettes and 1.1% are other property types (e.g. caravans);

5.0% have one bedroom/bedsit, 26.9% have two bedrooms, 47.1% have three bedrooms and 21% have four or more bedrooms;

29.6% of properties were built before 1919, a further 10.3% were built between 1919 and 1944, 19.4% between 1945 and 1964, 19.2% between 1965 and 1984, 15.4% between 1985 and 2004 and 6.2% have been built since 2005; and

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69.5% of properties are owner-occupied, 19.2% are affordable (social/affordable rented or shared ownership) and 11.3% are private rented (or tied accommodation).

Demographic driversThe population of Allerdale is estimated to be 96,000 in 20151 and this is projected to decrease by -1.1% to 94,900 by 20372. Over the next few decades, there will be a marked increase in the number and proportion of residents aged 65 and over which is expected to increase by 39.8% from 22,600 in 2015 to 31,600 in 20373.

Economic driversThe 2016 Household Survey found that, across Allerdale, 28.6% of households receive less than £15,600 per annum, 30.1% receive between £15,600 and £26,000 per annum and 41.3% receive at least £26,000 per annum.

Overall, 53.4% of heads of household (were in employment, 35.5% were wholly retired from work and 11.1% were not economically active (e.g. unemployed, permanently sick).

Market areasAn analysis of 2011 Census migration data suggests that 82% of moving households in the preceding year of the census originated from within Allerdale. In terms of travel to work, the 2011 Census indicates that 74.5% of residents in employment work in Allerdale. Allerdale can therefore be described as a ‘self-contained’ housing market area as thresholds for migration and travel to work exceed 70% which has historically been recognised as a benchmark for defining market areas.

Additionally, the 2016 Household Survey found that 77.0% of moving households intend to move within Allerdale.

Affordable housing Affordable housing need can be defined as ‘the quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance’4. A key element of the study is to explore the scale of housing need and the extent to which additional affordable housing is needed.

Affordable housing is defined as either social/affordable rented or intermediate housing which is provided and made available to eligible households (i.e. those who lack their own housing or live in unsuitable housing) who cannot afford to meet their needs through the market. Intermediate affordable housing is housing at prices and rents above those of social rents, but below market prices or rents.

The scale of affordable requirements has been assessed by taking into account the annual need from existing and newly-forming households within each Strategic

1 ONS 2012-based population projections2 ONS 2012-based population projections3 ONS 2012-based population projections4 CLG Estimating housing need 2010

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Housing Market Area (SHMA)5 and comparing this with the supply of affordable (social/affordable rent and intermediate tenure dwellings). The overall gross need for affordable housing is 671 dwellings each year (Table ES1). However, there is supply of around 496 affordable dwellings each year, which results in an overall net imbalance of 175 affordable dwellings each year (Table ES2). In terms of the size of affordable housing required, the analysis indicates a need for a range of dwelling sizes, with 52% of gross need for smaller one and two bedroom general needs, 30.8% for three or more bedroom general needs and 17% for older person dwellings. It is therefore appropriate for the continued delivery of affordable housing to reflect underlying need.

Table ES1 Gross annual affordable housing imbalance by SHMA, property size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 (excluding affordable supply)

SHMA

General Needs Older Person

TOTAL1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4+ Bed 1+ BedCockermouth 16 -8 11 8 10 37North Lakes 32 36 21 6 18 113Wigton 14 22 8 15 14 73Workington and Maryport 89 148 82 55 71 445Allerdale Total 151 198 122 85 114 671Allerdale Total % 22.5 29.5 18.2 12.7 17.0 100.0Sources: 2016 Household Survey; RP CORE Lettings and Sales

Table ES2 Net annual affordable housing imbalance by SHMA, property size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 (including affordable supply)

SHMA


TOTAL1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4+ Bed 1+ BedCockermouth 10 -25 3 8 3 -2North Lakes 25 26 17 7 14 88Wigton 13 8 -3 15 8 42Workington and Maryport -5 -13 -39 52 53 48Allerdale Total 42 -4 -23 82 78 175Sources: 2016 Household Survey; RP CORE Lettings and Sales

In terms of the split between social/affordable rented and intermediate tenure products, the Household Survey identified tenure preferences of existing and newly-forming households. This suggests a tenure split of around 50% social/affordable rented and 40% intermediate tenure. Analysis of affordable property type preferences suggests that, primarily, delivery of houses is a priority (61.3%) followed by bungalows (22.5%) and flats/apartments (16.2%).

5 The Cumbria-wide housing strategy 2006-2011 identified 20 SHMAs across the County including 4 in Allerdale

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Market demandThe 2016 Household Survey asked households intending to move in the open market what type and size of property they would like and expect to move to. This information could then be compared with the current stock profile to identify any mismatches between availability and aspirations/expectation (Table ES3). Of households moving, a majority would like to move to a house (64.2%), 26% would like to move to a bungalow, 5.3% to a flat and 4.5% to other property types. This compares with 67.8% who expect to move to a house, 22.7% to a bungalow, 5.2% to a flat and 4.2% to other property types. A much higher proportion would like to move to a detached house (42.8%) but only 26.6% expect to. In contrast, higher proportions expect to move to a semi-detached house (26.4%) than would like to (14.5%).

Future development should focus on delivering to address identified mismatches and reflect household aspirations.

Table ES3 Open market dwelling stock and preferences

Dwelling type/size summary% Profile of new dwelling stock based on:

Current stock Like ExpectHouse 1-2 Beds 15.1 11.5 20.2House 3 Beds 41.2 29.9 33.3House 4+ Beds 23.7 22.9 14.4Bungalow 14.5 26.0 22.7Flat 4.2 5.3 5.2Other 1.3 4.5 4.2Total 100.0 100.0 100.0No. of households 37,162 5,409 4,772

Source: 2016 Household Survey

Older people and general support requirementsThe 2016 Household Survey found that the majority of older people (81%) want to stay in their own homes with help and support when needed and around 17.0% would consider buying a property on the open market. Sheltered accommodation and Extra Care housing are attractive options, with a slight preference for rent over owner occupation but limited interest in part-rent/buying. 9.2% of older households would consider co-housing. This evidence suggests a need to continue to provide a range of older persons’ housing options. Additionally, providing a wider range of older persons’ accommodation has the potential to free-up larger family accommodation.

The 2016 Household Survey asked what help and assistance is needed in the home, either now or in the next five years. Across all households, particularly noted is the need for help with gardening (24.3%) and cleaning (13.7%). Among older households the priorities are for help with gardening (38.9%), cleaning (24.9%) and practical help (20.5%). In terms of adaptations, most frequently mentioned by older households were adaptations to bathroom (10.8%) and internal handrails (10.1%). The home improvements prioritised by older people included repairs (22.1%) and better heating (9.0%).

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1. Introduction

Background and objectives1.1 A comprehensive Housing Study for Allerdale Borough Council has been

commissioned to provide an up-to-date evidence base to inform the preparation of the housing strategy and support the Local Plan.

1.2 The Housing Study supports the requirements of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF, March 2012) and Planning Practice Guidance, Housing and economic development needs assessments (last updated February 2016). This Housing Study includes a review of the Housing Market Area definition, housing market drivers, housing need and affordable housing requirements. Collectively the overall evidence base will satisfy the requirements of the NPPF and Planning Practice Guidance.

National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) requirements1.3 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published in March 2012

and sets out the Government’s planning policies for England and how these are expected to be applied. The key sections of the NPPF which need to be taken into account in the Housing Study are now summarised.

1.4 Paragraph 159 of the NPPF states that Local Planning Authorities should have a clear understanding of housing needs in their area and they should prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to assess their full housing needs, working with neighbouring authorities where Housing Market Areas cross administrative boundaries. The SHMA should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the plan period that:

Meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change;

Addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the needs of different groups in the community (such as, but not limited to, families with children, older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own homes); and

Caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this demand.

1.5 Planning Practice Guidance, Housing and economic development needs assessments, states that housing needs should be assessed in relation to the relevant functional area i.e. Housing Market Area and this may identify smaller sub-markets with specific features and it may be appropriate to investigate these specifically in order to create a detailed picture of local need. It is also important to recognise that there are 'market segments' i.e. not all housing types have the same appeal to different occupants6.

1.6 Paragraph 47 of the NPPF makes it clear that local planning authorities should "use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full

6 Paragraph: 008 Reference ID: 2a-008-20140306

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objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing". The SHMA will provide robust evidence to help the Council "plan for a mix of housing based on current and future demographic trends, market trends and the needs of different groups in the community" and should "identify the size, type tenure and range of housing that is required in particular locations, reflecting local demand" (NPPF para 50).

1.7 NPPF paragraph 173 also states that in order to ensure both viability and the deliverability of development, careful attention to viability and costs in plan-making and decision-taking is required.

1.8 Moreover, the NPPF and the Localism Act both introduced the Duty to Co-operate as a replacement for Regional Spatial Strategy. Section 110 of the Localism Act requires local authorities to co-operate with other local authorities in maximising the effectiveness with which strategic matters within development plan documents are prepared. The provision of housing development is a strategic priority and the Council will have to ensure that they are legally compliant with the Localism Act at Examination. The Duty to Co-operate applies to all local planning authorities, working with neighbouring authorities and other bodies, including Local Enterprise Partnerships, on strategic priorities. It also means collaborating on the evidence critical to understanding the needs of your area, and the wider economic and Housing Market Areas, including through the preparation of a Strategic Housing Market Assessment.

Definitions1.9 National Practice Guidance (Housing and economic development needs

assessments) defines need for housing as “the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that is likely to be needed in the housing market area over the plan period – and should cater for the housing demand of the area and identify the scale of housing supply necessary to meet that demand”7.

1.10 For the purposes of this study, the term housing need refers to “the housing that households are willing and able to buy or rent, either from their own resources or with assistance from the state”8.

1.11 Definitions relating to affordable housing have been revised in the National Planning Policy Framework (March 2012):

Affordable Housing: Social/affordable, affordable rented and intermediate housing, provided to eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. Eligibility is determined with regard to local incomes and local house prices. Affordable housing should include provisions to remain at an affordable price for future eligible households or for the subsidy to be recycled for alternative affordable housing provision.

Social/affordable housing is owned by local authorities and private Registered Providers (as defined in Section 80 of the Housing and Regeneration Act 2008), for which guideline target rents are determined through the national rent regime. It may also be owned by other persons

7 Paragraph: 003 Reference ID: 2a-003-20140306

8 Planning Advisory Service Objectively Assessed Need and Housing Targets Advice Note July 2015

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and provided under equivalent rental arrangements to the above, as agreed with the local authority or with the Homes and Communities Agency.

Affordable Rented housing is let by local authorities or private Registered Providers of social housing to households who are eligible for social/affordable housing. Affordable rent is subject to rent controls that require a rent of no more than 80% of the local market rent (including service charges, where applicable).

Intermediate Housing is homes for sale and rent provided at a cost above social rent, but below market levels subject to the criteria in the affordable housing definition above. These can include shared equity (shared ownership and equity loans), other low cost homes for sale and intermediate rent, but not affordable rented housing. Homes that do not meet the above definition of affordable housing, such as “low cost market” housing, may not be considered as affordable housing for planning.

Geography1.12 Map 1.1 illustrates the geographical context of Allerdale and its neighbouring

authorities. Household survey data is available down to postcode level and has been prepared for a range of output geographies. Survey data is available at Parish, Ward, Lake District National Park Parish Clusters and Strategic Housing Market Areas9 (SHMAs)

1.13 Map 1.2 shows the SHMAs for Allerdale. Further output geographies are illustrated in maps presented in Appendix A.

9 The Cumbria-wide housing strategy 2006-2011 identified 20 SHMAs across the County including 4 in Allerdale

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Map 1.1 Allerdale Context

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Map 1.2 Allerdale Strategic Housing Market Areas

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Research methodology1.14 To deliver the 2016 Housing Study, a multi-method approach was adopted,

which comprised:

A sample survey of households across the Allerdale Council area. A total of 32,161 households were initially contacted and a telephone survey boosted responses in the urban areas of Workington and Maryport. A total of 5,557 responses were achieved and used in data analysis. This represents a 17.3% response rate overall;

An online questionnaire of key stakeholders including Local Authorities, County Councils, Voluntary Agencies and Registered Providers;

Interviews with estate and letting agents operating within the Borough; and

A review of relevant secondary data including the 2011 Census, house price trends, CORE lettings data and CLG Statistics.

1.15 Further information on the research methodology is presented at Appendix A.

Presentation of data1.16 Data presented in this report is based on the 2016 Household Survey carried

out as part of the Housing Study unless otherwise stated.

1.17 It is important to note that survey responses have been weighted to correct for response bias and then grossed up to reflect the total number of households and this process is explained in Appendix A. The 5,557 responses are therefore weighted and grossed up to 46,396 occupied dwellings. All survey information presented in this report is for weighted and grossed responses which are rounded up where appropriate.

1.18 Data have been prepared for a range of output geographies and are available for Parish, Ward, Lake District National Park Parish Clusters and SHMAs.

Report structure1.19 The Allerdale 2016 Housing Study report is structured as follows:

Chapter 2 reviews the national and regional policy context within which the research needs to be positioned;

Chapter 3 considers the definition of the Housing Market Area;

Chapter 4 reviews the current housing market and provides a detailed analysis of the main tenures;

Chapter 5 presents a comprehensive review of the key housing market drivers, past trends in housing delivery and a suggested future development profile;

Chapter 6 considers current households in need, affordable housing requirements and a consideration of household groups with particular housing requirements; and

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Chapter 7 concludes the report with a summary of findings and a consideration of strategic issues.

1.20 The report includes a substantial technical appendix, which provides detailed material that underpins the core outputs of the Housing Study. The technical appendix material includes:

General methodology (Appendix A);

Policy review (Appendix B);

Housing need calculations (Appendix C); and

Monitoring and updating (Appendix D).

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2. Policy and strategic review

Introduction2.1 The purpose of this chapter is to set out the policy and strategic context for

housing delivery in Allerdale.

2.2 At a national level, the five years 2010-2015 saw a radical and sustained programme of reform of welfare, housing, and planning policy, set within the context of national austerity. Under the previous Coalition Government these reforms championed localism, decentralisation and economic growth. Core cross-cutting themes that ran through the Coalition Government’s strategic policy context included:

Deficit reduction;

Economic growth;

Carbon reduction and tackling climate change; and

Empowering people and communities.

2.3 Although these themes have not changed significantly following the General Election of May 2015, the Housing and Planning Bill is set to dramatically alter the landscape of housing delivery, with the emphasis on Starter Homes to provide affordable housing and the expansion of the Right to Buy.

2.4 A detailed national policy review is presented at Appendix B.

Local strategic priorities2.5 Local plans and strategies have replaced regional planning strategies and

targets. Local Plans and strategies need to demonstrate evidence-based priorities, and show how they both support economic growth and reflect the economic priorities of the relevant Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs).

Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership2.6 The abolition of regional development agencies and the creation of local

enterprise partnerships were announced as part of the June 2010 Government Budget. Local authorities and business leaders were invited to submit proposals to replace regional development agencies in their areas with Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs). In October 2010, 24 bids were announced, establishing LEPs aimed at overseeing economic growth and job-creation in their relevant areas. Whilst the LEPs have no statutory land use planning powers, they are responsible for determining local economic priorities and undertaking activities to drive economic growth and local job creation.

2.7 Allerdale lies within the Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership. The LEP is a business-led partnership that seeks to bring together the public and private sectors to drive economic growth and create jobs. To this end, the Cumbria LEP’s vision is: “to create one of the fastest growing economies in the UK, in an energised and healthy environment”.

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2.8 The four stated priorities of the LEP are:

Advanced manufacturing growth;

Nuclear and energy excellence;

Vibrant rural and visitor economy; and

Strategic connectivity of the M6 corridor.

2.9 These priorities are underpinned by interventions in four economic drivers:

Business support;

Skills development;

Infrastructure improvements; and

Environmental sustainability.

2.10 The Cumbria LEP has announced the Cumbria Skills Investment Plan, seeking to improve skill levels, increase the county’s workforce and assist employers. The Plan sets out the employment and skills gap currently faced and the actions that the LEP is proposing to meet the challenges.

2.11 In addition, work is underway on a study looking at connectivity on a number of strategic routes west of the M6, particularly the A590, A595 and the A66 (West of M6 Strategic Connectivity Study). The LEP has offered a call for organisations who would like to be stakeholders in the study.

Allerdale Housing Strategy2.12 The Council’s Housing Strategy is currently being developed and will be

informed by the material in this report and other studies.

Local Plan2.13 The development plan is the strategic framework that guides land use planning

for the area. The Allerdale Local Plan (Part 1), Strategic and Development Management Policies, was adopted in July 2014, comprising the first part of the new Local Plan. The Local Plan (Part 1) sets out the strategic and development management policies that will guide development up to 2029 for the area of Allerdale that lies outside of the Lake District National Park. It also includes alterations to the Proposal Map. Allerdale Local Plan (Part 1) replaces most of the policies in the Allerdale Local Plan 1999 (policies from the Allerdale Local Plan 1999 and Local Plan First Alteration 2006 which have been 'saved' are listed in Appendix 9 of the adopted Allerdale Local Plan Part 1).

2.14 The Site Allocations Development Plan Document (DPD) forms Part 2 of the Local Plan. It will contain the site allocations that will deliver the strategy contained in the adopted local plan (Part 1). It will allocate sites for a range of different uses including housing and employment, having regard to the settlement hierarchy, the future role of each settlement/tier and the level of housing and employment growth identified in Part 1 of the Allerdale Local Plan. It will also designate areas of open space and nature conservation for protection.

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2.15 The Local Plan (Part 2) has been through several rounds of public consultation, including a ‘Call for Site’ in late 2013/early 2014; a consultation on Issues and Options in August/September 2014; and a consultation on ‘Additional Sites Submitted’ in January/February 2015.

2.16 The Council is preparing ‘Preferred Options’ for the Sites Allocation DPD, which are intended for public consultation in Summer 2016.

2.17 In addition, the Council is currently consulting on a Draft Developer Contributions Supplementary Planning Document (SPD). This document will supplement policies contained within the Local Plan (Part 1) relating to when developers will be required to make contributions to improve infrastructure as a result of their development for areas within the District that lie outside of the Lake District National Park.

2.18 The Lake District National Park Core Strategy was adopted in October 2010 and this applies to the areas of Allerdale located within the National Park, namely located in the ‘North Distinctive Area’.

Concluding comments2.19 The main purpose of this chapter has been to consider the general policy and

strategic context within which this research needs to be positioned. The previous coalition Government had established its housing and planning priorities within the context of local decision making and accountability, reduced capital expenditure on housing, fundamental changes to welfare, a changing role for social/affordable housing, and a need for future housing investment to support economic growth. It is likely that this direction of travel will continue, with the new Conservative Government’s legislative programme prioritising measures to increase access to home ownership, further reduce welfare spending, control immigration and assist devolution to cities.

2.20 The importance of having robust and up-to-date information to help inform decision making at local authority level is evermore essential. In a challenging economic climate, this Housing Study provides the Council with an excellent range of material to inform policy debate and the Local Plan process, help influence strategic responses, and shape local and sub-regional strategic housing priorities to inform future investment decisions.

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3. Defining the Housing Market Area

Introduction3.1 Planning Practice Guidance, Housing and economic development needs

assessments (last updated February 2016) states that housing needs should be assessed in relation to the relevant functional area i.e. Housing Market Area and this may identify smaller sub-markets with specific features and it may be appropriate to investigate these specifically in order to create a detailed picture of local need. It is also important to recognise that there are 'market segments' i.e. not all housing types have the same appeal to different occupants10.

3.2 Planning Practice Guidance defines a Housing Market Area as “a geographical area defined by household demand and preferences for all types of housing, reflecting the key functional linkages between places where people live and work. It might be the case that housing market areas overlap”.11

3.3 Planning Practice Guidance states that Housing Market Areas can be broadly defined by using three different sources of information as follows12:

House prices and rates of change in house prices;

Household migration and search patterns; and

Contextual data (for example travel to work area boundaries, retail and school catchment areas).

3.4 Former CLG Guidance13 suggested that a housing market is self-contained if upwards of 70% of moves (migration and travel to work) take place within a defined area. However, the Guidance cautions that:

HMAs are inherently difficult to define. They are a geographic representation of people’s choices and preferences on the location of their home, accounting for live and work patterns. They can be defined at varying geographical scales from the national scale to sub-regional scale, down to local and settlement specific scales.

HMAs are not definitive. As well as a spatial hierarchy of different markets and sub-markets, they will inevitably overlap.

3.5 Allerdale is located within Cumbria in the North West of England. The resident population of Allerdale is 96,00014. The Borough is bordered to the west by the Irish Sea and Solway Firth (and to the north across the Solway, Scotland). To the east lie Carlisle City Council and Eden District Council; to the south lie Copeland and South Lakeland District Councils. The southeast quarter of Allerdale is covered by the Lake District National Park.

10 Paragraph: 008 Reference ID: 2a-008-2014030611 Paragraph: 010 Reference ID: 2a-010-2014030612 Paragraph: 011 Reference ID: 2a-011-2014030613 DCLG Identifying Sub-Regional Housing Market Areas Advice Note, 200714 ONS 2012-based projections for 2015

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House prices and rates of change in house prices 3.6 Figure 3.1 shows how house prices across the area have changed over the

period 2000 to 2015, based on Land Registry price paid data.

3.7 Median house prices in Allerdale have generally tracked slightly lower than those for the North West region and England. House prices in Allerdale showed a similar flow pattern to the regional and national pattern between 2000 and 2010.

3.8 After a period of rapid growth, the rate of house price growth has slowed nationally, regionally and in Allerdale since 2007. At the peak, median house prices reached £142,250 in 2007, falling to a low of £135,000 in 2009. The property prices in Allerdale have shown some fluctuations since with a dip in 2011 before rising again and then showing a further decline in 2015. Overall, median prices have increased from £56,000 in 2000 to £140,000 in 2015, an increase of around 150%.

3.9 During 2015, median prices across Allerdale were £140,000 and lower quartile prices were £96,750. The distribution of lower quartile house prices during 2015 is illustrated in Map 3.1 and indicates relatively lower prices in Workington and Maryport SHMA and relatively higher prices in the North Lakes SHMA.

3.10 Table 3.1 summarises lower quartile, median and upper quartile prices by ward during 2014 and 2015 based on Land Registry address-level data.

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Figure 3.1 Median house price trends 2000 to 2015: Allerdale, the North West and England

Source: DCLG; Land Registry

May 2016


Table 3.1 House prices in Allerdale by ward during 2014 and 2015

WardPrice (£) Total

salesLower Quartile Median AverageAll Saints £143,000 £185,000 £205,828 143

Aspatria £68,000 £90,000 £102,086 74

Boltons £180,000 £280,000 £295,835 37

Broughton St Bridget's £133,000 £194,995 £222,917 143

Christchurch £130,000 £166,000 £189,217 195

Clifton £87,000 £124,000 £142,329 34

Crummock £195,000 £280,000 £296,703 37

Dalton £141,475 £198,475 £216,981 56

Derwent Valley £243,000 £325,000 £351,033 55

Ellen £107,500 £150,000 £152,443 163

Ellenborough £70,000 £94,000 £103,137 81

Ewanrigg £66,000 £80,000 £98,031 55

Flimby £56,000 £103,750 £102,309 46

Harrington £124,995 £165,000 £172,091 208

Holme £100,000 £130,000 £142,382 38

Keswick £191,500 £250,000 £295,757 221

Marsh £114,000 £150,000 £164,050 39

Moorclose £78,000 £93,000 £95,924 73

Moss Bay £60,000 £95,000 £102,956 117

Netherhall £75,000 £105,000 £104,358 94

Seaton £110,000 £137,500 £142,801 131

Silloth £80,000 £110,000 £120,544 112

Solway £146,000 £195,000 £206,586 29

St John's £81,000 £112,000 £118,651 185

St Michael's £58,750 £77,150 £82,483 160

Stainburn £125,000 £170,000 £175,830 107

Wampool £136,500 £171,500 £199,611 40

Warnell £155,000 £246,000 £246,924 27

Waver £108,000 £160,000 £175,971 35

Wharrels £117,000 £188,250 £193,717 46

Wigton £95,250 £140,000 £140,226 172

Total £95,500 £144,995 £167,663 2953Source: Land Registry Price Paid Data 1 Jan 2014 to 31

Dec 2015

Map 3.1 Median house prices 2015 by ward

May 2016


Source: Land Registry House Price Data 1 Jan 2015 to 31 Dec 2015

May 2016

1 - All Saints 13 - Flimby 25 - St Michael's2 - Aspatria 14 - Harrington 26 - Stainburn3 - Boltons 15 - Holme 27 - Wampool4 - Broughton St Bridget's 16 - Keswick 28 - Warnell5 - Christchurch 17 - Marsh 29 - Waver6 - Clifton 18 - Moorclose 30 - Wharrels7 - Crummock 19 - Moss Bay 31 - Wigton8 - Dalton 20 - Netherhall9 - Derwent Valley 21 - Seaton10 - Ellen 22 - Silloth11 - Ellenborough 23 - Solway12 - Ewanrigg 24 - St John's


Relative affordability3.11 The relative affordability of open market dwellings in Allerdale is compared with

the other Local Authorities in Cumbria and North West as a whole in Table 3.2. Table 3.2 presents lower quartile house prices, lower quartile gross earnings of full-time workers and a ratio of lower quartile earnings to house prices. This is based on Land Registry Price Paid and ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings data.

3.12 In terms of relative affordability based on lower quartile prices, Allerdale is ranked as the 3rd least affordable District in Cumbria, with a lower quartile house price to income ratio of 5.0, i.e. lower quartile house prices are 5 times lower quartile gross earnings.

Table 3.2 Relative affordability of lower quartile (LQ) prices by District (residence based)

DistrictLower Quartile

House PriceLQ Gross Earnings

per weekAnnual Gross

EarningsLQ Income to

House Price ratioAllerdale £93,000 £372 £18,523 5.0Copeland £75,000 £460 £29,128 2.6Carlisle £89,000 £334 £18,234 4.9Eden £137,000 £319 £16,642 8.2South Lakeland £150,000 £345 £17,967 8.3Barrow £72,000 £351 £17,938 4.0North West £98,250 £359 £18,565 5.3

Sources: ONS HPSSA dataset 4a (q2 2015); Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2015

3.13 In terms of relative affordability based on median prices, Allerdale is relatively affordable compared with other districts in Cumbria, with a median income to house price ratio of 5.3, as illustrated on Table 3.3. Allerdale compares more favourably with affordability across the North West region as a whole, where the median income to house price ratio is 6.7 (compared with 5.3 in Allerdale).

Table 3.3 Relative affordability of median prices by District (residence base)

DistrictMedian

House PriceMedian Gross

Income per weekAnnual Gross

IncomeMedian Income to House Price ratio

Allerdale £140,000 £533 £26,325 5.3Copeland £117,000 £714 £40,040 2.9Carlisle £125,000 £428 £23,012 5.4Eden £185,000 £457 £23,699 7.8South Lakeland £210,000 £518 £25,717 8.2Barrow £105,000 £493 £25,905 4.1North West £171,309 £492 £25,721 6.7Source: Land Registry Price Paid data 2015; Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2015

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3.14 The relative affordability of lower quartile open market dwellings is further illustrated in Maps 3.2 to 3.5. Map 3.2 shows the income required for a lower quartile open market dwelling to be affordable by ward. Map 3.3 compares lower quartile income to lower quartile house prices, with yellow indicating relatively affordable and dark blue relatively unaffordable. Maps 3.4 and 3.5 present similar data at parish level

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Map 3.2 Income required for a lower quartile open market property to be affordable by ward


Source: Land Registry and 2016 household survey

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Map 3.3 Relative affordability of lower quartile property prices compared with lower quartile household incomes by ward



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Map 3.4 Income required for a lower quartile open market property to be affordable by parish

1 - Above Derwent 16 - Brigham 31 - Greysouthen 46 - Papcastle 61 - Workington2 - Aikton 17 - Bromfield 32 - Hayton and Mealo 47 - Plumbland 62 - Wythop3 - Allhallows 18 - Broughton 33 - Holme Abbey 48 - St John's Castlerigg and Wythburn4 - Allonby 19 - Broughton Moor 34 - Holme East Waver 49 - Seaton5 - Aspatria 20 - Buttermere 35 - Holme Low 50 - Sebergham6 - Bassenthwaite 21 - Caldbeck 36 - Holme St Cuthbert 51 - Setmurthy7 - Bewaldeth and Snittlegarth 22 - Camerton 37 - Ireby and Uldale 52 - Silloth-on-Solway8 - Blennerhasset and Torpenhow 23 - Cockermouth 38 - Keswick 53 - Thursby9 - Blindbothel 24 - Crosscanonby 39 - Kirkbampton 54 - Underskiddaw10 - Blindcrake 25 - Dean 40 - Kirkbride 55 - Waverton11 - Boltons 26 - Dearham 41 - Little Clifton 56 - Westnewton12 - Borrowdale 27 - Dundraw 42 - Lorton 57 - Westward13 - Bothel and Threapland 28 - Embleton 43 - Loweswater 58 - Wigton14 - Bowness 29 - Gilcrux 44 - Maryport 59 - Winscales15 - Bridekirk 30 - Great Clifton 45 - Oughterside and Allerby 60 - Woodside

63 - Lands common to Holme Abbey, Holme Low and Holme St Cuthbert


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Map 3.5 Income required for a lower quartile open market property to be affordable by parish




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Household migration and search patterns3.15 Data reported in the 2011 Census suggests that around 82.0% of households

who moved in the year preceding the Census originated from within Allerdale and on the basis of a 70% self-containment threshold Allerdale can be described as self-contained. Table 3.4 summarises the origins of households based on 2011 Census data. Of the 6,404 households moving in Allerdale; 18% originated from outside of Allerdale with 6.4% moving from Copeland and 5.0% from Carlisle.

Table 3.4 Origin of moving households

Origin of moving household Number %Allerdale 5,250 82.0Copeland 409 6.4Carlisle 319 5.0Eden 118 1.8South Lakeland 89 1.4Barrow-in-Furness 47 0.7Newcastle-upon-Tyne 38 0.6Leeds 37 0.6Dumfries and Galloway 34 0.5Country Durham 33 0.5Lancaster 30 0.5Total 6404 1.5.0Source: 2011 Census, moves in the preceding year

3.16 Data from the 2016 Household Survey indicated that around 11,444 (69.8%) originated within Allerdale and 30.2% originated from outside the area.

Characteristics of in-migrant households 3.17 The 2016 Household Survey identified around 3,280 households who had

moved into Allerdale in the preceding five years. Information from the Household Survey relating to in-migrant households includes:

A majority (73.2%) moved into a house, particularly detached (26.4%), semi-detached (23.5%) and terraced (23.3%); 17.4% moved into a bungalow; 6.3% moved into a flat and 1.2% into another type of property such as a caravan or park home. Overall 40.8% moved into 3 and 4-bedroom detached and semi-detached houses;

34.7% moved into smaller properties with one or two bedrooms and 65.3% moved into properties with three bedrooms or more;

59.9% moved into owner occupied properties; 27.4% moved into private renting and 12.7% moved into affordable (social/affordable/intermediate tenure) dwellings;

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Overall, 50.1% of in-migrant households moved to Workington and Maryport SHMA; 18.8% moved to the North Lakes SHMA; 18.6% to Wigton and 12.5% moved to Cockermouth;

Younger couples with no children (both under 65) accounted for 32.3% of moving households; 21.1% were couples with children; 20.5% were singles under 65; 19.4% were older households (over 65) and 6.6% were other households;

81.9% of in-migrant heads of household were aged under 65 years and 18.1% were aged 65 or over;

The majority of heads of household of in-migrant households were in employment (56.7%) with a further 31.0% retired, 4.6% were permanently sick/disabled, 2.5% looking after the home and 3.1% were unemployed and available for work;

28.6% of households had an annual income of less than £15,600 per annum; 30.1% had an income of between £15,600 and £26,000 per annum and 41.3% had an income of at least £26,000 per annum;

61.3% of in-migrant heads of household in employment worked in Allerdale and 38.7% worked outside the Borough;

The three main reasons for moving were to be closer to work/new job (23.0%), to move to a better neighbourhood / more pleasant area (20.5%) and to be closer to family or friends to give/receive support (11.7%).

3.18 In summary, the 2016 Household Survey found that around 30.2% of households moving in the past five years originated from outside Allerdale. Most moved into the private housing sector, with around 59.9% moving into owner occupation and 27.4% into private renting. Moving to be closer to work and to a better neighbourhood were key migration drivers. 81.9% of in-migrant households had a Head of household aged under 65 and 18.1% were aged 65 and over; overall 61.3% were in employment and 41.3% had an income (of Head of household and partner) of at least £26,000 per annum.

Residential mobility within Allerdale3.19 The 2016 Household Survey identified that the majority (69.8%) of households

moving within the preceding five years had moved within Allerdale (around 7,596 households).

3.20 The Household Survey found that households moving within Allerdale were doing so for a variety of reasons. Those most frequently reported important reasons from all of those selected were wanting a larger or better property (19.8%), wanting own home/to live independently (12.1%), wanting to buy (9.2%), being forced to move (7.7%) and needing a smaller property for other reasons (7.3%).

3.21 Table 3.5 reviews the tenure choices of households moving within Allerdale, based on data from the 2016 Household Survey. The majority of those moving remain in the same tenure, with 87.1% of those in affordable accommodation, 78.8% of those in owner occupied properties and 47.4% of those in private rented housing staying in the same tenure. Respondents who had previously

May 2016


lived with family and friends (i.e. newly forming households) tended to move into owner occupied property (49.1%).

Table 3.5 Residential mobility – movement between different tenures

Current Tenure

Previous Tenure

TotalOwned

Social/Affordable

RentedPrivate Rented

Previously living with

family/friends

Other

Owned 78.8 7.5 31.7 49.1 50.9 48.7Social/Affordable 7.3 87.1 20.9 25.8 49.1 27.5Private Rented 13.9 5.4 47.4 25.1 0.0 23.8Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0Total Responses 2,942 1,251 2,190 1,047 57 7,487


3.22 Table 3.6 considers the profile of dwellings being moved into by households moving within Allerdale, based on the findings of the 2016 Household Survey. Households are moving into a variety of dwelling types and sizes, most notably to: two (37.4%) and three (36.5%) bedroom dwellings; terraced (25.1%) and semi-detached (23.9%) houses.

Table 3.6 Residential mobility – profile of properties moved into by type and size

No. Bedrooms

Property type (%)

TotalDetached

house

Semi-detached

house

Terraced house /

town house BungalowFlat/

Apartment

Caravan/Park

HomeOne 0.6 0.5 1.8 11.1 43.6 50.0 10.0Two 8.2 25.2 44.0 59.6 52.8 50.0 37.4Three 37.1 60.8 41.8 25.6 2.4 0.0 36.5Four 49.4 9.9 9.8 2.9 0.0 0.0 13.7Five or more 4.7 3.6 2.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.4Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Total Responses 7,479


Households planning to move3.23 The 2016 Household Survey found that around 6,414 households plan to move

in the next five years. Table 3.7 summarises the moving intentions of households based on the first preference they stated in the Household Survey. Overall, around 77.0% of households intend on remaining in Allerdale and 23.0% intend to move out.

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3.24 Of the 23.0% of households planning to move out, the Household Survey found that 7.6% planned to move elsewhere in Cumbria, 13.9% elsewhere in the UK and 1.5% outside of the UK.

3.25 The Household Survey found that the main reasons why households plan to move out of the Allerdale area were wanting a larger property (21.4%), wanting to buy (10.6%), needing a smaller property for reasons other than current property being too difficult to manage (9.5%) and need housing suitable for older / disabled person (8.5%).

Table 3.7 First choice destination of households planning to move in next five years

Destination % stating as first preferenceWithin AllerdaleAikton 0.2Allhallows 0.4Allonby 1.8Aspatria 1.1Blennerhasset & Torpenhow 0.3Boltons 0.0Bothel & Threapland 0.3Bowness 0.5Bridekirk 0.2Brigham 1.2Bromfield 0.6Broughton 1.1Broughton Moor 0.5Camerton 0.2Cockermouth 19.7Crosscanonby 0.7Dearham 1.4Great Clifton 0.3Greysouthen 0.2Hayton & Mealo 0.2Holme Abbey 0.2Holme East Waver 0.3Holme Low 0.2Ireby & Uldale (Allerdale) 0.2Kirkbampton 0.3Kirkbride 0.4Little Clifton 0.4Maryport 4.7Oughterside & Allerby 0.4Papcastle 0.5Seaton 3.2Silloth 1.9Thursby 1.2Waverton 0.2

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Continued overleaf/…

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Table 3.7 First choice destination of households planning to move in next five years

Destination % stating as first preferenceWestnewton 0.3Westward 0.5Wigton 5.0Winscales 0.3Woodside 0.3Workington 11.9Above Derwent 1.9Bassenthwaite 0.4Bewaldeth & Snittlegarth 0.1Blindbothel 0.1Blindcrake 0.1Caldbeck 1.2Embleton 0.3Ireby & Uldale (LDNP) 0.1Keswick 8.2Lorton 1.3Loweswater 0.2Underskiddaw 0.1Total Within Allerdale 77.0Destination % stating as first preferenceOutside AllerdaleCarlisle Council area 3.8Eden Council area 1.9Copeland Council area 0.2South Lakeland Council area 1.0Barrow-in-Furness Council area 0.3Dumfries and Galloway Council area 0.4Elsewhere in the UK 13.9Outside the UK 1.5Total Outside Allerdale 23.0Total 100.0Source: 2016 Household Survey

Travel to work trends 3.26 The 2011 Census provides an analysis of travel to work patterns and the extent

to which residents in Allerdale travel to other areas together with details of how many people commute into the Borough. The 2011 Census data captures all places of work areas but some are a very small proportion of the commuting total. Therefore, highlighted below are the main commuting areas identified in the 2011 Census.

3.27 In terms of living in Allerdale a total of 42,534 economically active individuals were identified and of those:

31,665 (74.5%) lived and worked in Allerdale (including 6,229 who work at home);

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10,869 (25.5%) lived in Allerdale but commuted out of the Borough for work, the main areas being Copeland (12.9%), Carlisle (9%), Eden (2.5%) and other areas 1.1%.

3.28 In terms of working in Allerdale a total of 31,172 economically active individuals were identified and of those:

5,736 (around 18.0%) commuted into Allerdale for work but lived outside the Borough;

The main areas where these individuals resided included Copeland and Carlisle.

3.29 On the basis of workplace data, Allerdale can be seen to be self-contained.

Concluding comments 3.30 The purpose of this chapter has been to consider the general housing market

context of Allerdale and its inter-relationships with other areas. By reviewing house prices, migration and travel to work patterns, a picture of the market dynamics of Allerdale emerges.

3.31 The Department of Communities and Local Government (CLG) suggests that a housing market is self-contained if upwards of 70% of moves (migration and travel to work) take place within a defined area. An analysis of 2011 Census migration data suggests that 82.0% of households move within Allerdale and 74.5% of residents in employment work within the Borough.

3.32 The 2016 Household Survey found that 69.8% of those who had moved in the previous five years came from within Allerdale. However, it found that of those planning to move in the following five years, 77.0% of households intend to move within Allerdale.

3.33 Allerdale can be described as a self-contained housing market on the basis of migration flows and travel to work patterns.

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4. Understanding the current housing market position in Allerdale

Introduction4.1 The purpose of this chapter is to explore the housing market dynamics of

Allerdale focusing on the current stock profile, condition and tenure characteristics. This includes a detailed analysis of the major tenures: owner occupation; the private rented sector and affordable accommodation.

Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure

4.2 This study assumes a total of 48,434 dwellings in Allerdale, with 46,396 occupied households, 857 vacant properties and 1,181 second homes 15. This implies a vacancy rate of 1.8%, compared with a vacancy rate of 2.6% across England16. Baseline dwelling statistics for each of the four SHMAs is set out in Table 4.1. These data are based on the responses to the 2016 Household Survey.

Table 4.1 Dwelling stock and occupancy by SHMA

SHMATotal

HouseholdsSecond Homes Vacant

Total Dwellings

%Vacant

Cockermouth 4210 112 56 4,378 1.3North Lakes 5,665 595 145 6,405 2.3Wigton 5,904 91 98 6,093 1.6Workington and Maryport 30,617 383 558 31,558 1.8Allerdale Total 46,396 1,181 857 48,434 1.8%

Source: 2015 Council Tax (dwellings, vacant, second homes); 2016 Household Survey

Property size and type4.3 Table 4.2 reviews the profile of occupied dwelling stock by size and type across

Allerdale based on the 2016 Household Survey. Overall, the vast majority (76.1%) of properties are houses, 15.5% are bungalows, 7.4% are flats/apartments and maisonettes and 1.1% are other types of property including park homes/caravans. Of all occupied properties 5.0% have one bedroom/bedsit, 26.8% have two bedrooms, 47.1% have three bedrooms and 21.1% have four or more bedrooms. How property type varies by SHMA is illustrated in Figure 4.1 and variations in number of bedrooms by SHMA in Figure 4.2.

15 2015 Council Tax data16 2014 CLG Dwelling and Vacancy data

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4.4 Notable SHMA variations identified by the Household Survey include the relatively higher proportion of bungalows in Wigton; the high proportion of terraced houses in the Workington and Maryport SHMA; and the high proportion of detached houses in North Lakes and Wigton SHMA. In terms of size, there is a high proportion of larger properties with four or more bedrooms in the North Lakes SHMA, while there is a relatively high proportion of one- and two-bedroom properties in Cockermouth.

Table 4.2 Property type and size of occupied dwellings in Allerdale

Property Type

No. Bedrooms (Table %)

TotalBase (Valid response)

One/bedsit Two Three Four

Five or more

Detached house 0.2 1.4 8.7 8.7 2.3 21.3 9,779Semi-detached house 0.1 4.8 18.5 3.7 1.1 28.2 12,942

Terraced house / town house 0.6 8.5 13.5 2.7 1.1 26.5 12,126

Bungalow 0.9 7.6 5.8 1.1 0.1 15.5 7,092Maisonette 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 135Flat / apartment 2.9 3.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.1 3,246Caravan/Park Home 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 170

Other 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 327Total 5.0 26.8 47.1 16.3 4.7 100.0 45,817

No. of responses 2,290 12,291 21,579 7,482 2,175 45,817


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Figure 4.1 Property type by SHMA


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Figure 4.2 Property size by SHMA


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Property condition4.5 The 2016 Household Survey reviewed the extent to which households were

satisfied with the state of repair of their dwellings. Overall 84.2% of respondents expressed satisfaction (46.2% were very satisfied and 37.9% were satisfied); 9.9% were neither satisfied nor dissatisfied; a total of 5.9% expressed degrees of dissatisfaction, of whom 5.2% were dissatisfied and 0.8% were very dissatisfied. Table 4.3 explores how the level of dissatisfaction varied by dwelling tenure, age and type. Note that the data relates to perception and across the private and social/affordable sectors this may be more reflective of tenant expectations in landlord responses to repairs.

4.6 Household Survey data indicates that households in Housing Association rented accommodation (12.4%) were more likely to express dissatisfaction. Levels of dissatisfaction were highest amongst those in Workington and Maryport (6.3%) and North Lakes (6.1%).

4.7 In terms of property type, the proportion of households dissatisfied was highest amongst respondents living in maisonettes (17.3%) and ‘other’ property types (12.7%). In terms of household type, lone parents with children (12.2%), lone parents with at least 1 or 2 children (11.7%) and other household types (10.6%) were most likely to express degrees of dissatisfaction.

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Table 4.3 Dissatisfaction with state of repair by housing market area, property tenure and type

Housing Market Area

No. Dissatisfie

d

% Dissatisfie

d

Total Households

Cockermouth 136 3.4 4,032North Lakes 344 6.1 5,665Wigton 315 5.3 5,904Workington and Maryport 1,935 6.3 30,795Total Responses 2,730 5.9 46,396

Tenure

No. Dissatisfie

d

% Dissatisfie

d

Total Household

sOwned (no mortgage) 581 2.7 21,345Owned (with mortgage) 689 6.5 10,601Rented Privately (furnished) 22 3.3 664Rented Privately (unfurnished) 345 8.3 4,149Rented from a Housing Association 1,060 12.4 8,582Shared Ownership, Shared Equity, Discounted for sale, Low Cost Home Ownership 14 4.7 297

Tied accommodation (this is usually provided by an employer and can be rent free) 19 4.6 415

Total Responses 2,730 5.9 46,053

Property Type

No. Dissatisfie

d

% Dissatisfie

d

Total Household

sDetached house 348 3.5 9,844Semi-detached house 710 5.4 13,046Terraced house / town house 1,035 8.5 12,180Bungalow 290 4.1 7,117Maisonette 24 17.3 139Flat / Apartment 221 6.8 3,261Caravan / Park Home 4 2.4 170Other 42 12.7 330Total Responses (note some missing cases) 2674 5.8 46,087


Repair Problems4.8 The 2016 Household Survey asked respondents if their home had any repair

problems. 13,975 households reported at least one repair problem representing 30.1% of all households. The main problems mentioned across all tenures were dampness/mould growth (11%), windows (9.2%), roof (8.3%) and cold/heating problems (6.6%) were a concern for 11% of households.

4.9 Table 4.4 below summarises the range of repair problems by tenure. Households in private rented accommodation were most likely to report repair problems (40%) followed by owner occupiers with a mortgage (36.2%) and overall 30.1% of households stated a repair problem

May 2016


May 2016


Table 4.4 Repair problems by property tenure

Repair problem

Tenure

TotalOwned (no mortgage)

Owned (with

mortgage)Private rented

Social/affordable

/IntermediateTotal Households 21,576 10,661 5,228 8,931 46,396No repair problem 16,485 6,806 3,136 5,994 32,421Repair problem stated 5,091 3,855 2,092 2,937 13,975% households with one or more repair problem (in each tenure) 23.6 36.2 40.0 32.9 30.1

% all households with repair problemBrick / stonework 5.5 8.3 6.6 5.3 6.2Roof 7.6 12.4 5.4 6.8 8.3Windows 6.7 11.6 12.7 10.1 9.2Kitchen 3.6 7.0 7.4 4.3 4.9Doors 3.1 5.6 5.9 6.6 4.6Bathroom / toilet 3.4 6.4 4.9 10.6 5.7Cold/heating problems 4.4 7.7 13.4 6.7 6.6Dampness / mould growth 7.2 13.2 21.5 11.3 11.0Wiring / electrics 3.3 6.1 2.6 2.9 3.8


4.10 Table 4.5 summarises repair problems by housing market area, with the highest level of disrepair reported in the North Lakes, closely followed by Wigton.

Table 4.5 Repair problems by housing market area

Repair problem

Tenure

TotalCockermouth North Lakes WigtonWorkington

and MaryportTotal Households 4032 5665 5904 30795 46396No repair problem 2632 3459 3677 22653 32421Repair problem stated 1400 2206 2227 8142 13975% households with one or more repair problem (in each tenure) 34.7 38.9 37.7 26.4 30.1

% all households with repair problemBrick / stonework 6.1 8.0 9.3 5.3 6.2Roof 8.2 11.4 11.3 7.2 8.3Windows 14.4 12.3 11.9 7.4 9.2Kitchen 6.3 5.4 5.6 4.6 4.9Doors 4.5 6.0 5.5 4.3 4.6Bathroom / toilet 6.2 7.8 5.8 5.2 5.7Cold/heating problems 4.6 8.5 9.9 5.9 6.6Dampness / mould growth 9.4 15.8 12.2 10.0 11.0Wiring / electrics 3.9 5.8 3.7 3.4 3.8


May 2016


Property tenure4.11 Based on the findings of the 2016 Household Survey, the tenure profile of the

Allerdale area is summarised in Figure 4.3. Variations in broad tenure groups by SHMA are summarised in Figure 4.4. Overall, based on the Household Survey evidence, 69.5% of occupied dwellings are owner-occupied, 11.2% are private rented (including tied accommodation), 18.6% are social/affordable and 0.6% are intermediate tenure dwellings.

Figure 4.3 Allerdale: tenure profile of occupied dwellings


4.12 The tenure profile varies across Allerdale (Figure 4.4). According to the Household Survey, the proportion of owner occupied dwellings is highest in Wigton (77.0%), private renting in North Lakes (15.3%) and affordable housing (including intermediate tenures) in Workington and Maryport (22.3%).

May 2016


Figure 4.4 Allerdale tenure profile by SHMA


May 2016


Stakeholder consultation4.13 Stakeholders were invited to participate in an online survey aimed at identifying

a range of information, including establishing the key perceived housing market issues in the Allerdale Council area. Stakeholders were asked to respond to any of the questions within the survey that they felt related to their area of knowledge or experience.

4.14 A total of 20 separate responses to the stakeholder consultation were obtained from a range of representatives including Local Authorities, County Councils, Parish Councils, Government Services, Voluntary Agencies and Registered Providers. Respondents were asked to answer only the questions that they felt were relevant to their knowledge and experience. The findings of this consultation are set out at relevant points in this Chapter and Chapters 5 and 6.

Owner-occupied sector4.15 The 2016 Household Survey identified 69.5% (32,236) of households across

Allerdale are owner-occupiers. 46.5% of all households (21,576) own outright and 23.0% of all households (10,660) have a mortgage.

4.16 The Household Survey provides the following information on owner occupied stock:

Most owner-occupied properties are houses, with 27.0% detached, 28.3% semi-detached and 25.9% terraced; a further 15.7% are bungalows, 2.0% flats/maisonettes and 0.6 other property types;

51.2% of properties have three bedrooms, 22.3% have four bedrooms, 6.5% have five or more bedrooms,18.8% have two bedrooms and 1.0% have one bedroom;

Around 33.8% of owner-occupied stock was built pre-1919, 13.1% was built between 1919 and 1964; 18.6% was built between 1965 and 1984 and 10.7% has been built since 1985;

44.1% of owner-occupier households are satisfied or very satisfied with the state of repair in their accommodation, 7.2% are neither satisfied nor dissatisfied and 2.3% expressed degrees of dissatisfaction.

4.17 Over the period 2000 to 2015, Land Registry data reveals that lower quartile, median and average house prices across Allerdale have increased dramatically. This is summarised in Table 4.6.

4.18 It is interesting to note that in 2000, a household income of £10,036 was required for a lower quartile price to be affordable; by 2015 this had increased to £27,643. In comparison, an income of £16,000 was required for a median priced property to be affordable in 2000 compared with £40,000 in 2015.

May 2016


Table 4.6 Lower Quartile and median house price and income required to be affordable

AllerdaleHouse Price (£) Income to be affordable*

2000 2015 2000 2015Lower Quartile 35,125 96,750 10,036 27,643Median 56,000 140,000 16,000 40,000

Source: DCLG / Land Registry

*Assuming a 3.5x income multiple

4.19 A range of socio-economic and demographic information on residents has been obtained from the 2016 Household Survey. Some interesting observations relating to owner-occupiers include:

In terms of household type, 34.2% of owner occupiers are older (65 or over) singles and couples, 22.1% are couples (under 65 with no children), 10.1% are couples with children under 18, 15.3% are singles (under 65), 13.0% are parent(s) with adult children, 1.3% are lone parents with children under 18 and 2.7% are other household types;

55.2% of heads of household living in owner occupied dwellings are in employment and a further 39.8% are wholly retired from work. The proportion retired is considerably higher for outright owners (37.2%);

25.0% of owner occupied households receive less than £15,600 gross per year, around 30.0% receive between £15,600 and £26,000 per year and 45.0% receive at least £26,000 per year; and

In terms of length of residency, 40.2% of owner occupiers have lived in the same property for 20 years or more (and the figure is 34.1% for outright owners).

Private rented sector4.20 Nationally, the private rented sector has established itself as an important

dimension of the housing market to complement owner occupation and social renting. The sector plays a major role in facilitating labour mobility. The sector is diverse in terms of the range of households it accommodates and the types of properties available.

4.21 The report ‘The Private Rented Sector: its contribution and potential’17 identified that the private rented sector is complex and distinct sub-markets include:

Young professionals;

Students, whose needs are increasingly being met by larger, branded, institutional landlords;

The housing benefit market, where landlord and tenant behaviour is largely framed by housing benefit administration;

17 The Private Rented Sector: its contribution and potential’ Julie Rugg and David Rhodes, Centre for Housing Policy The University of York 2008

May 2016


Slum rentals at the very bottom of the PRS, where landlords accommodate often vulnerable households in extremely poor quality property;

Tied housing, which is a diminishing sub-sector nationally but still has an important role in some rural locations;

High-income renters, often in corporate lettings;

Immigrants whose most immediate option is private renting;

Asylum seekers, housed through contractual agreements with government agencies;

Temporary accommodation, financed through specific subsidy from the Department for Work and Pensions; and

Regulated tenancies, which are a dwindling portion of the market.

4.22 In a recent paper18, Rhodes describes how the private rented sector in England contracted in size across much of the twentieth century, from being the majority tenure at the start to the smallest by the end. By the late 1980s the private sector was identified as performing a number of specialised roles including:

Easy access and exit housing, particularly for the young and mobile;

Traditional housing, often for elderly people who might always have lived in the PRS;

Employment-linked accommodation, such as for agricultural workers or caretakers;

A residual role for those who are unable to access owner occupation or social renting; and

An alternative to social/affordable housing (for instance those wanting to move to a different area).

4.23 However, Rhodes identifies a strong recovery in the private rented sector since the early 1990s. By 2013 there were more than four million privately rented dwellings in England, representing 20% of stock and more people were renting from a private landlord than a social landlord19.

4.24 In August 2012, Sir Adrian Montague published the findings of his independent review of the private rented sector20. The report acknowledges the rapid growth of the private rented sector in recent years, including an increase in the number of people making long-term homes in the sector. In order to meet housing aspirations and support wider economic growth, an increase in housebuilding is considered essential, including private rented accommodation. While the vast majority of private rented homes in England are managed by individual landlords, the report highlights the potential for investment by professional organisations in the large-scale development of homes built specifically for private rent in order to meet growing demand. The report includes proposals to encourage greater large-scale institutional investment in build-to-let development.

4.25 The 2016 Household Survey indicates that the private rented sector accommodates around 11.3% (5,228) of households across Allerdale. Of these

18 ‘The fall and rise of the private rented sector in England’, David Rhodes, Built Environment Vol. 41, No. 2, pp 258-27019 ‘The fall and rise of the private rented sector in England’, David Rhodes, Built Environment Vol. 41, No. 2, pp 258-27020 Review of the barriers to institutional investment in private rented homes, DCLG, August 2012

May 2016


households, 4,149 rent unfurnished properties, 664 rent furnished accommodation and 415 rent with their job (tied accommodation). Table 4.7 summarises the number of private rented dwellings by SHMA and indicates that 59.7% of all private rented dwellings are in Workington and Maryport, 16.6% in North Lakes, 12.9% in Wigton and 10.8% in Cockermouth.

May 2016


Table 4.7 Profile of private rented sector in Allerdale

Sub Area

Tenure

TotalRented Privately

(furnished)Rented Privately

(unfurnished) Tied accommodationCount % of PRS Count % of PRS Count % of PRS Count % of PRS

Cockermouth 123 18.5 423 10.2 19 4.6 565 10.8North Lakes 120 18.1 622 15.0 125 30.1 867 16.6Wigton 42 6.3 592 14.3 41 9.9 675 12.9Workington and Maryport 379 57.1 2,512 60.5 230 55.4 3,121 59.7Allerdale Total 664 100.0 4,149 100.0 415 100.0 5228 100.0


May 2016


4.26 The Household Survey found that most private rented properties (71.9%) are houses (of which 21.5% are semi-detached, 15.8% are detached and 34.6% are terraced); a further 18.2% are flats/maisonettes, 6.6% are bungalows and 3.2% are other types of property. 12.2% of privately rented properties have one bedroom/bedsit, 44.2% have two bedrooms, 34.1% have three bedrooms and 9.5% have four or more bedrooms.

4.27 The characteristics of tenants are diverse and the Household Survey revealed that in particular the private rented sector accommodates singles under 65 (33.5%), couples (under 65 no children) (16.4%) and lone parents with children under 18 (10.4%).

4.28 Around 33.0% of private renting households have lived in their accommodation for less than two years and 44.8% have lived in their property for more than five years, over 10% of those have lived there for over 20 years.

4.29 In terms of income, the Household Survey found that 46.7% of privately renting households receive less than £15,600 gross per year, 32.2% receive between £15,600 and £26,000 per year and 21.1% receive at least £26,000 per year, indicating that the private rented sector tends to accommodate lower income households.

4.30 Around 65.0% of heads of household living in private rented accommodation are employed, 19.2% are wholly retired from work, 10.1% are permanently sick/disabled, 3.1% are carers or looking after the home and 2.3% are unemployed.

Stakeholder views on the private rented sector

4.31 Stakeholders were asked their views on the size of the private rented sector in Allerdale. The feedback was very mixed, offering no clear viewpoint. One stakeholder highlighted that “evidence from previous housing studies suggest it is too small” whilst another noted: “it depends where you're standing; in some parts of town it is probably too high, in others a better mix would be beneficial”. Another stakeholder supported this view and felt that the private rented market was “…possibly too big as people are coming in from Carlisle to fill space”.

4.32 Stakeholders were also asked what they believed were the characteristics of the private rented sector stock available in the area. The consensus was that there was a mixed offer of rental properties available however the condition of these and the quality of the landlords can vary greatly. One stakeholder said “…as everywhere, there is some very good caring landlords alongside others who sit at the other end of the spectrum”. Another stakeholder noted that “large deposits” were often needed when seeking a property to rent.

4.33 Stakeholders indicated that private rented accommodation is located across Allerdale, although greater concentrations can be found around town centres - particularly Workington. One stakeholder highlighted “RTB estates; Slatefell (Cockermouth); Ewanrigg (Maryport) and Moorclose” as areas where rental demand is high.

4.34 The demand for properties is usually most greatly influenced by demographics, transport links and employment. The private rented sector within the area attracts a varied demographic including: families, young couples and singles.

May 2016


One stakeholder noted “…there is strong demand from low income families, with little student or ethnic group demand whilst contractor demand is consistently strong”.

4.35 Very few comments were made around the demand present from ethnic minority groups however of the feedback received the view was mixed. Some felt that demand from this demographic was present whilst one stakeholder added; “the numbers are very low”. Equally, limited feedback was made around the role of buy to let within the current market yet one stakeholder felt that it was “becoming a more popular option”.

4.36 When asked about the impact of changes in the economy and welfare on the sector, the overall view was that more people are looking for private rented accommodation as they cannot afford a mortgage due to increased house prices or access a property due to issues around affordability. One stakeholder supported this view stating “…more people are needing rented property, benefit changes are making life hard for some people”.

4.37 Stakeholders did not provide much information on movement between tenures. The main movement was highlighted as some traffic between social housing and the private rented sector. One stakeholder explained that there is “…always a flow, the bedroom tax pushed some people out of Social Housing into the private sector”. This view was supported by another stakeholder who said “…when private tenants are offered social homes they jump at it”.

4.38 In terms of key strategic messages about the sector to be identified in the housing strategy the following feedback was offered:

A need to improve the condition of stock available;

Reduce or control rental prices charged; and

Introduce better controls of the standard or service and property offered by some of the landlords in the area.

Affordable sector4.39 The 2016 Household Survey found that there are around 8,930 households

who live in an affordable (social/affordable rented or shared ownership) property across Allerdale, accounting for 19.2% of all occupied dwellings. Of these, 8,633 households live in accommodation rented from a Housing Association or Registered Provider and 297 live in shared ownership properties (intermediate tenure).

4.40 The Household Survey identified that houses account for 59.6% of occupied affordable accommodation (54.2% semi-detached, 39.3% terraced and 6.4% detached), 19.6% are bungalows and 20.7% are flats/maisonettes. Affordable dwellings tend to have one/bedsit (14.2%), two (43.0%) or three (39.9%) bedrooms, with a further 2.9% having four or more bedrooms.

4.41 The Household Survey found that 22.9% of households living in affordable dwellings are singles under 65, around 31.0% are older singles and couples, 11.5% are couples under 65 with no children, 11.4% are couples/lone parents with adult children, 10.2% are couples with children under 18, 9.6% are lone parents with children under 18 and 3.4% are other household types.

May 2016


4.42 39.1% of heads of household living in affordable housing are in employment. 29.4% are wholly retired from work, 16.7% are permanently sick/disabled, 7.3% are unemployed and 6.7% look after the home/are caring for someone.

4.43 Incomes are generally low, with 70.3% receiving an income of less than £15,600 gross per year (30.2% receive less than £7,800 gross per year and 40.1 received between £7,200 and £15,600)

Stakeholder views on affordable housing

4.44 The stakeholder survey included a range of affordable housing providers. These stakeholders were offering a mixed stock profile focused around 2/3-bed houses and 1-bed flats. A number of stakeholders were involved in the development of housing for social rent, affordable rent, intermediate rent alongside some extra care accommodation however, no feedback was offered around the development of home ownership products.

4.45 Limited feedback was offered when stakeholders were asked where demand for these products was coming from. One stakeholder believed it was “from families with two or more children” whilst another felt that demand was focused around “LDNPA and bordering areas” they went on to add that the high demand present was due to a “lack of affordable properties”. Workington was also noted as an area that experienced high demand and the most popular type of properties included family homes and rooms to rent for professionals.

4.46 The recent reductions in rental income imposed by the budget are likely to affect the number and type of affordable housing developed by stakeholders. One stated they were aiming to “reduce their portfolio” as a result of these changes whilst another indicated they were “unsure at this point” however were going to consider this within their business plan.

4.47 The views on anti-social behaviour in Allerdale were mixed. Some felt that is was still a problem in some parts of the area such as Workington with one stakeholder highlighting it is a problem “in some areas and with some individuals”. Yet another felt that ASB had been “solved some years ago”.

4.48 In terms of key messages for the housing study in respect of affordable housing, stakeholders made the following points:

The need for more 2-bed houses, older persons’ stock and improving the existing housing stock; and

A greater focus to be placed on understanding what people within the local area deem affordable.

Self-build4.49 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) states that the Government

wants to enable more people to build their own homes and wants to make this form of housing a mainstream housing option21.

4.50 The 2016 Household Survey identified 152 households planning to move in the next five years who would be interested in self-build. Of these, 70 expected to

21 National Planning Policy Framework, paragraph 021, Reference ID 2a-021-20150326

May 2016


move into a self-build property. The Household Survey identified that households considering self-build:

Were all private sector households (83.2% owner occupiers and 16.8% private renters);

37.7% were couples under 65 (no children), 34.8% were singles under 65, 19.3% were couples with children (including adult children) and 8.2% were older couples;

Incomes tended to be high, with the majority receiving at least £500 each week (35.1% had an income of between £500 and £750 each week, 37.7% received £750 or more each week) with a further 21.4% receiving less than £300 each week and 5.9% receiving between £300 and £500 each week;

Key reasons for moving included wanting a larger property (28.6%), wanting to buy (16.8%) or wanting a smaller property (12.5%); and

The majority aspired towards larger dwellings, (62.3% three-bedroom and 7.2% four or more bedrooms) with a further 30.5% aspiring towards a one (5.2%) or two bedroom (25.3%) dwelling.

Starter Homes4.51 The Government has introduced the concept of Starter Homes to help meet the

housing needs of young first time buyers by offering properties to buy at below their open market value. The NPPF outlines the key characteristics of Starter Homes22. They are to be well-designed and suitable for young first time buyers (under 40 years of age). Starter Homes area also available to ex-Armed Forces personnel of any age. Starter Homes are not expected to be priced, after the discount, significantly more than the average price paid by a first time buyer. This means the discounted price should be no more than £250,000 outside London.

4.52 The 2016 Household Survey identified a total of 2,599 households who have a Household aged under 40 and currently not living in owner occupation. Of these households, 718 plan to move in the next five years. When asked their tenure choices, 79.9% of these households said that they would consider owner occupation.

4.53 Analysis indicates that a Starter Home price would be around £134,130 based on a 20% discount on the Borough average house price. However, prices vary within the Borough, with the lowest prices (based on 80% of average price) in Holme East Waver (£73,000), Aspatria (£77,610) and Maryport (£79,544) and in some Parishes the price of a starter home would exceed the cap of £250,000 (e.g. Blindbothel (£295,200), Bassenthwaite (£288,320) and Above Derwent (£284,430).

4.54 An analysis of the household incomes of households who would be eligible for Starter Homes (households where the survey respondent is aged under 40 and not living in owner occupation) compared with indicative Starter Home prices (based on 80% of average prices) indicates that 8.5% of all eligible households could afford Starter Homes which equates to around 221 households over five

22 National Planning Policy Framework, paragraph 002, Reference ID 55-002-20150318

May 2016


years. Analysis therefore suggests that most existing households who qualify for Starter Homes could not afford to buy one.

4.55 In terms of newly-forming households, housing needs analysis (see Appendix C) indicates that there are a total of 783 emerging households each year across Allerdale, or 3,916 over five years. However, the household survey found that 67.1% of newly-forming households would consider owner occupation as a tenure choice which could be achieved through the Starter Home initiative.

4.56 The affordability thresholds of newly-forming households have been tested against Starter Home prices (set at 80% of median house prices) and this analysis suggests that 2.6% of the emerging households each year could afford Starter Homes or 20 each year (100 over 5 years)

4.57 Taking into account both existing and newly-forming households who qualify for Starter Homes, the analysis suggests a total potential market for Starter Homes over the next five years of 321 households (64 each year).

Executive housing 4.58 Although it is difficult to define executive housing, distinctive features include:

High property values linked to desirable locations, with high incomes/ equity required to support the purchase; and

High quality construction including exterior and interior fittings.

4.59 This Housing Study has sought to investigate the requirements for executive housing through a review of existing provision, stakeholder discussions and analysis of Household Survey evidence. Overall, in Allerdale, executive housing provision will have a role in response to the need for diversification and expansion of the sub-regional economy and in contributing towards achieving wider population and economic growth objectives for the Region.

4.60 The Household Survey can be used to explore the housing options being considered by higher income groups (with a weekly income of at least £950). Although the executive housing market is a niche market, reviewing the housing aspirations of high income groups is an appropriate way of investigating the potential demand for executive housing.

4.61 The 2016 Household Survey identifies 3,855 households with an income of at least £49,400 per annum (£950 each week). Of these households, 648 are intending to move in the next five years. Of this group of high income households, 72.9% stated a first preference location within Allerdale. Outside of Allerdale, 18.4% mentioned elsewhere in the UK, 4.0% in Carlisle Council area, 3.0% outside the UK and 1.8% in the Eden Council area.

4.62 In terms of dwelling preferences indicated in the Household Survey, likes and expectations are summarised in Table 4.8. This indicates strongest aspiration towards detached houses with four bedrooms; this is broadly in line with what households expect to move to, however, the main expectation was also for detached properties and four-bedroom properties.

4.63 The Household Survey found that the main reason why higher income households plan to move was wanting a larger property. This was mentioned by 38.8% of households.

May 2016


Table 4.8 High income household dwelling aspirations and expectations

Like/Aspiration

No. Beds

Property type (Table %)

TotalDetached

house

Semi-detached

houseTerraced

house Flat Bungalow Other

Two 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.7% 0.5% 7.0%

Three 18.2% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 11.1% 4.4% 41.1%

Four 34.1% 1.4% 2.6% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 40.0%

Five or more 7.2% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 11.8%

Total 62.8% 5.5% 7.2% 3.6% 14.6% 6.4% 100.0%

Expectation

No. Beds

Property type (Table %)

TotalDetached

house

Semi-detached

houseTerraced

house Flat Bungalow Other

Two 2.0% 4.7% 3.1% 3.3% 3.6% 0.5% 17.2%

Three 17.0% 7.4% 0.5% 0.0% 12.3% 3.3% 40.4%

Four 29.4% 7.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.2%

Five or more 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3%

Total 48.4% 20.8% 8.0% 3.3% 15.8% 3.8% 100.0%

Base: 3,855 households with an income of more than £950 planning to move in next 5 years


Relative affordability of housing options4.64 The relative cost of alternative housing options across Allerdale is explored in

Table 4.9. This includes affordable and market rent options, owner occupation and intermediate tenure options, as well as Starter Homes. Data have been prepared for Parishes and Wards and this is available in an Excel sheet accompanying this report. Table 4.9 also shows the income required for alternative tenure options to be affordable by SHMA. Table 4.10 presents the assumptions underpinning the analysis.

May 2016


Table 4.9 Cost of alternative tenure options for Allerdale

Tenure optionCost of tenure

option (£)

Income required for tenure option to be affordable (£)

Social Rent (monthly average) £365 £17,541

Affordable Rent (80% of average monthly private rent) £384 £18,432

Market Rent - Lower Quartile (Monthly) £394 £18,912

Market Rent – Median (Monthly) £451 £21,648

Market Rent – Average (Monthly) £480 £23,040

Market Sale - Lower Quartile £95,500 £24,557

Market Sale - Median £144,995 £37,284

Market Sale - Average £167,663 £43,113

Starter Home £134,130 £34,491

Shared ownership (50%) £83,832 £37,258

Shared ownership (25%) £41,916 £31,689

Help to buy £167,663 £23,952

Note: Information for Parishes and Wards is in an Excel spreadsheet accompanying this reportSource: Land Registry, CLG, Zoopla rental data

4.65 This analysis indicates that for social/affordable rented housing a minimum income of £17,541 is required for social/affordable housing to be affordable (excluding housing benefit) and this rises to £18,432 for affordable renting. For open market housing, at Borough level the minimum income required is £18,912 for lower quartile or entry-level renting and £24,557 for lower quartile or entry-level house prices. For affordable home ownership, an income of at least £23,952 is required for help-to-buy and £37,244 for 50% shared ownership

4.66 Analysis that accompanies this report indicates that the income requirements for lower quartile private renting to be affordable range between £15,792 (Wigton) and £43,248 (Underskiddaw). For lower quartile or entry-level house prices, income requirements range between £16,714 (Maryport) and £105,429 (Wythop).

4.67 Figure 4.5 summarises the relative affordability of alternative tenures at the Borough level. It uses lower quartile and median earnings derived from the 2016 Household Survey.

4.68 Further analysis of the requirement for affordable housing is presented in Chapter 6.

May 2016

Allerdale 2016 Housing Study – Draft Report Page | 62

Table 4.10 Assumptions in assessing income required for alternative tenure options

Tenure Tenure price assumptions Affordability assumptionsSocial rent Prevailing prices Affordability 25% of income

Affordable rent 80% of average market rent Affordability 25% of income

Market Rent - lower quartile Prevailing prices Affordability 25% of income

Market Rent – median Prevailing prices Affordability 25% of income

Market Rent – average Prevailing prices Affordability 25% of income

Market Sale - lower quartile Prevailing prices 90% LTV, 3.5x income

Market Sale – median Prevailing prices 90% LTV, 3.5x income

Market Sale – average Prevailing prices 90% LTV, 3.5x income

Starter Home 20% discount on full value (assumed to be median), 10% deposit on discounted portion, remainder mortgage based on 3.5x income 90% LTV, 3.5x income

Shared ownership (50%)Total price based on median price and 50% ownership. Mortgage based on 40%. 10% deposit required, annual service change £395, Annual rent based on 2.75% of remaining equity

90% LTV, 3.5x income for equity and 25% of income for rental element

Shared ownership (25%)Total price based on median price and 25% ownership. Mortgage based on 20%. 5% deposit required, annual service change £395, Annual rent based on 2.75% of remaining equity

90% LTV, 3.5x income for equity and 25% of income for rental element

Help to buyTotal price based on median price. Mortgage based on 75% equity. 20% loan and deposit of 5%. Loan fee of 1.75% in year 6 of outstanding equity loan increasing annually from yr7 at RPI+1%

70% LTV, 3.5x income

May 2016


Figure 4.5 Allerdale household income and housing costs

Source: Land Registry, Zoopla, DCLG, 2016 Household Survey

May 2016


Estate and letting agent review4.69 arc4 approached four estate and letting agents in Allerdale who agreed to

participate in face to face interviews:

PF&K (Keswick and Cockermouth);

Tiffen & Co (Cockermouth and Workington);

Lillington’s Estate Agents (Cockermouth and Workington);

Smeatons Estate Agents (Keswick); and

Your Move, Wigton

4.70 The agents were asked a series of questions to develop an understanding of the current housing market within the Allerdale area.

Market overview4.71 The majority of agents reported that they have had a very strong start to the

year in both the sales and rentals markets. Most agents predicted there would be more activity this year than they have seen in previous years as they feel confidence in the market has now returned. Some suggested that parts of the Borough were at risk of becoming very undesirable due to the recent flooding in the area. They noted that properties located in the worst hit areas such as Keswick were at risk of becoming complete “no go areas” for anyone seeking property and agents predict that sales in these parts of the Borough may prove challenging over the year.

4.72 The main issue that everyone agreed with when talking about the sales market was that prices were not rising much if at all and mainly remained steady despite demand and activity in the market increasing. Nevertheless, the geography of the Borough holds the greatest impact on prices charged with most agents suggesting that property prices vary greatly between parts of the Borough such as Maryport, Workington and the popular area of Keswick, which agents highlight as the most popular area for holiday homes and rentals.

4.73 According to agents, sellers are being far more being realistic in their asking prices given that they are benefiting if they were purchasing another property themselves. Sellers are now more receptive to taking their agents’ advice on valuations and this meant that properties were being priced to sell. There was some concern that the flow of new instructions being made was less than the level of sales in parts of the Borough but this relative shortage was not pushing up prices as yet.

4.74 Beyond demand for holiday homes the Borough boasts a mixed demographic of both locals and non-locals. Increasingly, non-locals will come to the area for a permanent move after holidaying locally or for work. Thus, demand for executive housing remains high in parts of the Borough such as Keswick and Cockermouth. Agents are concerned that despite the high levels of demand, there is a significant undersupply of suitable housing for this demographic in the area and this may lead to these people looking elsewhere if access to this type of property remains limited.

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4.75 Most agents accepted DSS and tenants eligible for housing benefit because as one agent put it, tenants in receipt of housing benefit were often working and could supply the quality references which would pass the agents’ vetting process. Most agents were concerned about pending changes in the administration of benefits which could possibly put off landlords letting to such claimants in the future.

4.76 Unfurnished properties are in most demand and there are only a handful of furnished homes available to rent in the Borough. All agents did however state that they would sort out whatever furniture option someone requested and all said that an increasing number of unfurnished homes include white goods as a matter of course.

4.77 Rental properties tend to move quickly and it is only the comprehensive vetting process and other necessary administrative steps that the agents need to take that hold up lettings; finding a potential tenant happens very quickly.

4.78 The rental valuations vary greatly across Allerdale. Agents were cautious about offering average values due to the impact that holiday lets have on the rental prices charged. Despite this, agents were able to value properties in the area as:

1-Bed Apartment - £475 - £500 PCM,

2-Bed Apartments - £475 - £550 PCM,

2-Bed Cottages - £600 - £650 PCM, and

3-Bed Semi/Detached £700 - £950+.

Demographics

4.79 All agents felt that first time buyers had re-entered the housing market but in low numbers and none were reporting that finding deposits appeared to be an issue, as most first time buyers had been saving for a longer period than normal and many still had access to ‘the bank of mum and dad’. This did not apply to Keswick or the rural areas where prices were out of the reach of first time buyers.

4.80 Any first time buyers in Keswick who couldn’t access a larger deposit tended to look to Cockermouth or Workington for more affordable homes.

4.81 All agents report that demand from families is also very high across the Borough. Non-local families tend to be most attracted to the areas of Cockermouth and Keswick due to the good family homes, village feel and access to local amenities and schooling. Localised demand, particularly amongst lower income households, is generally more visible in Maryport and Workington where property prices are lower thus access to larger homes for those on lower incomes is attainable.

4.82 Demand from an older demographic remains high within the Borough and agents predict that with an ageing population this demand will only continue to rise. Despite this, agents felt that access to suitable properties remains a challenge and highlighted the undersupply of bungalows as a key feature of the problems faced. Most were concerned that many would simply opt to stay in

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their larger family homes as they had no other suitable accommodation creating a “blockage” for families who were seeking a bigger property in the area.

Market activity and housing supply

4.83 Agents noted that across the Borough as a whole, the sales market is active and demand for home ownership is high. This market is bolstered greatly by the demand from those seeking buy to let properties that are often investors from outside of the area such as London. Buy to let properties were described as the busiest area of business for many agents with Keswick identified as a key market for this. Agents note that a good home that is priced around £250,000 can sell to investors in a matter of weeks of entering the market. Despite this, agents raised concerns that the high levels of external demand can lead to many local people and families being priced out of the market. Often this is due to speed as well as affordability yet agents recognised this as an area of concern for the future.

4.84 Agents reported that the Borough as a whole was suffering from a severe shortage of rental properties. The issues around affordability in parts of the Borough mean many locals will opt for a rental property to accommodate their growing family however, frequently these people are unable to access a property due to a large undersupply of rentals available thus leaving them no option but to look in other geographies both in and outside of the Borough.

4.85 Those who are able to access rented accommodation now stay for longer periods than previously and it was in the best interest of both landlords and tenants to reduce turnover of tenancies as far as possible. Agents felt that many people know that they would not pass the stricter criteria set for mortgages and so settle for renting while others are happy to rent and avoid the costs and complications of ownership. Agents said that it was relatively unusual for a tenancy to end after the completion of the initial six-month tenancy particularly as access to rental properties within the area can be so limited. Despite this, agents report that in areas such as Maryport and Workington rental demand is much higher. This is mainly due to the economic status of these areas with low-income levels and higher rates of unemployment leaving many simply unable to access the funds to enable them to obtain home ownership.

Keswick

4.86 The sales market within the Keswick area is described as “huge” by all agents. Here the style of homes available combined with the image and reputation of the area continues to make this a very popular location for buy-to-let investors and those seeking second homes. Agents report that the market in the area is very fast paced noting that a good property can sell within a matter of days of entering the market.

4.87 Agents report that most investors from out of the area and wish to capitalise on the high demand for holiday-lets as well as relatively cheaper property prices when compared with prices in the south of England.

4.88 Three-bedroom properties receive the overall highest demand and the average three-bedroom property in the area commands around £300,000. Agents report

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that property prices in the area are significantly higher here when compared with other parts of the Borough. As a result, agents feel that affordability presents a key challenge for the area as many remain priced out and note that the high levels of demand continue to encourage local house prices to rise.

4.89 The rental market in Keswick is limited despite strong demand for rental homes in the area. Agents report that many families will aim to seek a rental property in the area if it allows them to access a home locally. Furthermore, the presence of excellent local schools continues to attract families however, the limited rental housing stock available and issues around affordability often mean they will seek property in cheaper parts of the Borough such as Cockermouth and will send their children to the schools located in Keswick.

Cockermouth

4.90 Cockermouth was described by agents as more of a “boutique” town with excellent local amenities, good quality homes and access to local transportation links and schools. As a result, the area remains a popular choice for families and professionals. The image and status of the area also attracts non-locals with demand for executive housing from non-locals also described by agents as good.

4.91 Housing demand in the area is split between the sales and rental markets which agents describe as buoyant and busy. Despite this, agents feel the access to rental properties locally remains limited and note that any rental property will usually let within a matter of days of entering the market. Demand comes from contract workers who will typically access property here during placements at the Sellafield site, families and professionals.

4.92 The sales market is considered the most active in the area and agents note the recent development of new housing provision has offered a boost to the accessibility of homes within the area. Agents reported extensive new build development throughout Cockermouth and suggested this is, and would continue to prove popular in the current market. Many properties are being offered with incentives from builders making the accessibility of property more realistic for locals. Agents also noted that many non-locals who have moved the area for work (often at the Sellafield site) were also a key demographic that the new build properties would appeal too.

4.93 In highest demand in the area are good quality 3 and 4-bed family homes. Agents report that property prices in the area vary however, a good quality 3-bed family home usually commands around £200,000.

Wigton

4.94 The main consensus from agents was that the market was fairly weak generally in Wigton at the moment. Demand is uncertain in all price ranges and there is no particular style, value or indeed area which is selling any better than any other at the moment.

4.95 Most types of housing are proving difficult to attract buyers at present, but in particular larger 4-bedroom estate houses in the higher £200,000 range attract the least buyers. The main reason for the lack of interest is employment in the

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area for younger or first time buyers and therefore has a knock on effect up the property ladder. Also families moving into the area are reluctant to buy if it is perceived that house prices are falling and so the rental market is certainly more buoyant. Mortgages are readily available to those that have at least a 10% deposit and there is certainly a reasonable choice and variety of house types available.

4.96 In terms of the type of people who are buying in the area, there are insufficient statistics to establish a particular pattern. There is no particular genre of buyer more prominent than any other.

4.97 Sales in the area stand at around 5% to 10% lower than the marketing figures which obviously have to be sensibly set to attract viewings in the first place. Values in general are fairly stable.

4.98 The level of self-containment in Wigton is no higher or lower than buyers moving in from other areas within Cumbria. There are still buyers who move into the area for family, professional or retirement reasons therefore neither is any more prominent than the other.

4.99 Affordability is not really an issue in the area as a smaller terraced house can be purchased for around £65,000 / £75,000 and modern flats for around £50,000. These sales values rise dramatically in the more desirable areas of Penrith, Cockermouth and Keswick. In terms of affordable home ownership, there is very little available of this property type in the area therefore it is difficult to say if there is a demand in the area.

Workington

4.100 Workington is a major retail hub in Cumbria and attracts many visitors from the neighbouring towns and Boroughs. Many locals are employed in the retail outlets located here.

4.101 Demand for property locally is considered far more mixed and accessible than in other parts of the Borough with the area boasting a wider range of smaller properties including flats and 2-bed terraced properties. Demand is typically from a local demographic and is split between both the sales and rental markets, however agents note that access to rental properties is easier than in other geographies as demand for holiday lets is not a key feature within the housing market here.

4.102 Dwelling types available are described as less ‘quaint’ than in other parts of the Borough and smaller terraced properties typically dominate the market.

4.103 Agents describe the local housing market as more “static and stagnant” than in other parts of the Borough despite the cheaper property prices present. They believe the markets here are slower due to lower income households who will often opt to rent a property over seeking home ownership.

4.104 Family homes usually receive the overall strongest demand. Agents report that a good quality 3-bed semi-detached property is valued at around £105,000 in the area whilst smaller terraced properties usually sell for around £80,000.

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Concluding comments4.105 The purpose of this chapter has been to explore the current housing market

dynamics affecting and influencing the housing market within Allerdale. This chapter has provided detail on the current profile of dwellings by type, tenure and size along with property condition and property prices.

4.106 The 2016 Household Survey identifies that the majority of properties in Allerdale are houses (76.1%), 15.5% are bungalows and 7.4% are flats/apartments or maisonettes. Consequently, 47.1% of existing properties across the Borough contain three or more bedrooms. Notable SHMA variations identified by the Household Survey include the high proportion of larger properties with four or more bedrooms in the North Lake SHMA, while there is relatively high proportion of smaller properties in Cockermouth and Workington.

4.107 The highest levels of dissatisfaction with current property recorded by the Household Survey were within the Workington and Maryport SHMA (6.3% dissatisfied). Dissatisfaction rates were greatest within Housing Association rented accommodation (12.4%) and among private renters in unfurnished properties (8.3%), and those living in maisonettes (17.3%).

4.108 The 2016 Household Survey identified that 69.5% of all households own their own home. In terms of house prices, Land Registry data shows that there was a period of rapid inflation between 2001 and 2007. House prices fell slightly after 2007, although there has been some recovery since 2011.

4.109 The tenure profile identified by the Household Survey reveals that 19.2% of the housing stock is affordable accommodation (including intermediate tenures). The highest proportion of this stock tenure is located within Workington and Maryport SHMA (22.3%).

4.110 The Household Survey found that 11.2% of all households rent privately. There would appear to be some scope within the existing market for further private rented growth especially where this tenure may be used in part to accommodate local affordable housing need.

4.111 The relative affordability of alternative tenures was considered and overall a household income of at least £17,541 is required for affordable tenures (excluding housing benefit), at least £18.912 for market renting, £24,557 for open market purchase and at least £23,952 for affordable home ownership.

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5. Understanding the future housing market in Allerdale

Introduction5.1 In order to understand the future housing need and demands for housing, Local

Planning Authorities are required to consider a range of data sources and information which identify how key drivers of the local market and underlying trends will impact upon the structure of households and population over a fifteen year period and beyond.

5.2 This Chapter assesses the primary market drivers in Allerdale, namely: population growth and structure; economic change; and housing stock and aspirations.

Key market drivers5.3 Essentially, there are three key primary drivers influencing the current (and

future) housing market: demographic; economic and dwelling stock characteristics, as summarised in Table 5.1.

Table 5.1 Primary market drivers

Primary Driver Attributes Impact on overall demand through:

Demography Changing no. of households, household structure, ethnicity

Natural Change

Economy Jobs, income, activity rates, unemployment

Economic migration

Housing stock and aspirations

Quality vs. aspirations, relative prices, accessibility, development programmes

Residential migration

Source: arc4

Demography5.4 The following demographic drivers will continue to underpin the housing market

in Allerdale:

An overall decreasing population, with ONS 2012-based population projections (Table 5.2) indicating a decrease of -1.1% from 96,000 in 2015 to 94,900 by 2037;

Over the period 2015 to 2037, ONS 2012-based population projections estimate that the number of residents aged under 65 will decrease overall by 13.8% from 73,400 in 2015 to 63,300 in 2037. The number aged over 65 will increase by 39.8% from 22,600 in 2015 to 31,600 in 2037;

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2012-based CLG household projections suggest that the total number of households in Allerdale is expected to increase from 42,481 in 2012 to 44,947 in 2037, an increase of 5.8%;

The 2016 Household Survey indicates that the following range of household groups currently live in Allerdale: older couples (one or both over 65) (18.4%); singles under 65 (16.0%); younger couples (under 65 with no children) (19.4%); couples with children under 18 (13.7%); singles aged 65 or over (13.4%); couples with adult children (9.1%); lone parents with adult children (3.2%); lone parents with children under 18 (4.0%); and other household types (2.9%).

Table 5.2 Projected population change, 2015 to 2037

Age Group 2015 2021 2037Change2015-37

0-14 14,900 15,200 13,600 -8.7

15-39 24,300 23,500 22,200 -8.6

40-64 34,200 32,600 27,500 -19.6

65+ 22,600 24,900 31,600 39.8

TOTAL 96,000 96,200 94,900 -1.1

Total % aged 65+ 23.5 25.9 33.3

Of whom % aged 75+ 10.4 12.5 18.9

Source: ONS 2012-based Subnational Population Projections

Economy5.5 The following economic drivers underpin the operation of the housing market in

Allerdale:

53.4% of heads of household are economically active and are in employment according to the 2016 Household Survey; a further 35.5% are retired; 5.7% are permanently sick/disabled; 1.9% are either looking after the home or provide full-time care; and 2.3% are unemployed and available for work;

According to the 2011 Census, 74.5% of residents in employment work in Allerdale, a further 12.9% work in Copeland and 9.0% work in Carlisle;

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, lower quartile earnings in 2015 across Allerdale were £18,523 each year which compares with £18,565 for the North West region and £19,719 for England. Median incomes were £26,325, compared with a regional median of £25,721 and a national median of £27,869, and

The 2016 Household Survey identified considerable income polarisation across Allerdale, with 28.6% of households receiving less than £15,600 per

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annum, 30.1% receiving between £15,600 and £26,000 per annum and 41.3% receiving at least £26,000 per annum.

Housing stock5.6 In terms of dwelling stock, the 2016 Household Survey reports that, across the

Allerdale area:

76.1% of properties are houses, 15.5% are bungalows, 7.4% are flats/maisonettes, and around 1.1% are other property types (e.g. caravans);

5.0% have one bedroom/studio, 26.8% have two bedrooms, 47.1% have three bedrooms and 21.1% have four or more bedrooms;

29.6% of properties were built before 1919, a further 10.3% were built between 1919 and 1944, 19.4% between 1945 and 1964, 19.2% between 1965 and 1984, 15.4% between 1985 and 2004 and 6.2% have been built since 2005;

69.5% of properties are owner-occupied, 19.3% are affordable (social/affordable rented or shared ownership) and 11.3% are private rented (or tied accommodation); and

There is a particularly strong aspiration in the open market for houses and bungalows with three or more bedrooms.

Stakeholder views on key market drivers 5.7 Stakeholders were asked to rank a range of priorities as high, medium or low,

their responses are summarised in Table 5.3.

Table 5.3 Ranking of priorities by stakeholders

Proposed priorities(base number of responses in brackets) Low Medium High

Building homes to buy on the open market (15) 47% 47% 7%

Building affordable homes to rent (18) 6% 33% 61%

Building affordable homes to buy (shared ownership, shared equity) (17) 6% 35% 59%

Building executive homes (15) 53% 40% 7%

Building properties designed for older people (17) 6% 35% 59%

Building properties designed for people with specialist needs (16) 6% 56% 38%

Improving the quality of existing stock (17) 10% 70% 20%

Encouraging and enabling self build (16) 50% 31% 19%

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5.8 Building affordable homes to rent and buy was ranked the highest priority for Allerdale with almost 60% of respondents recognising these as of great importance for the area. Equally, building properties designed for older people was also recognised as a high priority for 59% of respondents and a medium priority for 35% of respondents.

5.9 The overall highest medium priority for 70% of respondents was improving the quality of existing stock. The remaining 20% felt it was a high priority whilst the other 10% felt it was a low priority. Building properties designed for people with specialist needs was ranked as a medium (56%) to high priority (38%) for 94% of respondents. Whilst, building homes to buy on the open market and building executives homes were both ranked as medium to low priorities by 93% of stakeholders.

5.10 Of least priority was the need for more encouragement and enabling of self-build properties. Half of respondents felt this was of lower priority for the area: 31% felt it was a medium priority and only 19% felt it was a high priority.

5.11 Stakeholders gave a range of reasons for identifying these priorities, including:

The Local Plan evidence base identifies an ageing population in addition to a declining population in the younger age group. There is a need for open market housing to house inward migration to provide the workforce to fill anticipated job vacancies and support local economic aspirations;

Allerdale has two Extra Care schemes but it is thought that there is a reluctance from house builders to incorporate older persons accommodation in their developments. Previous SHMAs have shown that properties for social rent represent a significant sector especially in more deprived areas of Workington and Maryport;

There are a number of large families in Allerdale looking for a larger affordable home to purchase as their family size increases;

There is a shortage of bungalows for the elderly and people are hoping they become available;

There are a number of quality terrace houses in the area, but generally these properties are not up to standard; this is often due to a lack in modern standards of insulation. Investment in these properties would offer a more cost effective option to enhance good homes in good areas with grants etc when compared to building new homes on the outskirts;

Affordable homes are always needed and demand is consistently high;

More housing options should be offered for disabled people so they can live at home;

Due to recent Government policy communities and LAs will need to develop new ways to provide permanently affordable rented homes. Middle income households will benefit from increased access to shared ownership and to self-commissioned homes where the build cost may be more affordable than market values. Mixed developments across ages and incomes are socially more sustainable; and

The profile of those seeking property has now changed, as a result a mix of housing stock and housing options is needed to accommodate this.

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5.12 Asked what other key housing priorities there are in the Allerdale area, stakeholders felt that:

There is a need for ‘Extra care' housing for older people. As well as having properties designed for older people these require to have facilities with support on site (eg: warden);

Workington needs an improvement in existing stock and the completion of the ambitious schemes on brownfield sites, coupled with a greater mix of housing. The existing stock needs to be far more resilient in terms of energy efficiency, which will fight fuel poverty;

In Keswick, affordable housing is the main problem, followed by low wages; and

The new proposed tax system for landlords could seriously reduce the supply of rented houses. 50% of landlords in a recent National Landlords’ Association (NLA) survey said they were now trying to leave the industry. This will leave shortages throughout the market from one-bedroom flats to executive houses for people working on Sellafield, the power line upgrade, or the new water supply.

Past trends in housing delivery5.13 Over the 13-year period, 2002/03 to 2014/15 there has been an overall average

of 218 dwelling completions each year (Table 5.4), with an average of 191 completions in the Allerdale Local Planning Authority area (LPA) and 27 in the Lake District National Park LPA located within Allerdale. How delivery has compared with planning targets is also set out in Table 5.4.

5.14 As shown by Figure 5.1, there has been significant variation in the rate of housebuilding during this period. The highest peak dwelling completions of 310 being in 2014/15, and the lowest rate of housebuilding in 2010/11 when only 67 dwellings were completed. Although there has been some fluctuation during the last six years, housebuilding has started to increase again since the period 2011/12.

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Table 5.4 Dwelling completions 2002/03 to 2014/15

Year

Total Dwellings Built RSS/Local Plan Target

Allerdale(Non LDNP)

Allerdale (LDNP)

Total

Allerdale (Non

LDNP)Source

Allerdale

(LDNP)Source

2002/03 196 26 222 225 JSP2003/04 197 26 223 267

Regional Spatial

Strategy

2004/05 111 37 148 2672005/06 194 48 242 2672006/07 205 31 236 2672007/08 210 25 235 2672008/09 148 25 173 2672009/10 222 48 270 2672010/11 67 1 68 2672011/12 192 16 208 304

Local Plan

15Local Plan

2012/13 183 8 191 304 152013/14 256 19 275 304 152014/15 302 38 340 304 15

Total 2483 348 2831 3577 60

AnnualAverage

191 27 218 275 15

Figure 5.1 Dwelling completions 2002/03 to 2014/15

Source: Completions data from ONS

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Stakeholder views on new housing provision5.15 The key stakeholders who responded to the online survey were aware of a

range of new housing provision in differing geographies across the Council area. One stakeholder noted that “every green field on the edge of Workington is under threat. And yet brownfield sites with existing consents are not built on” . Further feedback highlighted new housing was being developed mainly in the areas of Cockermouth, Workington and Harrington.

5.16 Affordability was recognised as an issue in Allerdale by most stakeholders however, the general view was that this was not as severe as is experienced in other geographies across the UK. Issues with affordability are most commonly present in and around the National Park locations and parts of Cockermouth and are present amongst a range of tenure types.

5.17 The demand profile for new build homes was highlighted as mainly rented accommodation and some social housing due to the cost of open-market housing. One stakeholder noted “there is scope and demand for buying if the cost is around £130K” however, no further explanation was offered to support this view. Some felt that there was demand present for family homes, bungalows and executive homes in areas where infrastructure, schools, amenities and health care were good such as Cockermouth. Some felt that the demand would be localised however, the views on this were mixed.

5.18 Stakeholders were asked what trends they predict around the demand for new housing provision in the future. The feedback obtained was very limited however one stakeholder felt that there would be “…high demand for the few they bring, depending on supply. Currently there seems to be an oversupply of land in the wrong places to match demand”. Whilst other stakeholders predicted that price would hold the biggest overall impact on the market.

5.19 Stakeholders were asked about the main barriers to development. The key points were identified as:

Demand and economic pull;

The market, economy, growth and wages;

Limited infrastructure and connectivity;

Poor public services;

Investment is likely to be focused on where there is a return for developers rather than where there is a need;

Planning and government policy; and

Viability issues.

5.20 Stakeholders were asked what locations of the survey area should be prioritised for housing growth. The general view was that a range of new build housing is needed across all parts of the area. However, most felt that the greatest focus should be placed around developing housing on brownfield sites to support community growth. One stakeholder noted that this should be “carefully planned village/town expansion”. Another stakeholder felt that “areas of high cost housing such as the National Park and bordering areas” should be a focus for new development.

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5.21 Asked to identify what types of housing they thought should be built, the general view was that a mix of size and tenure is needed across the area to support a spectrum of needs, cater to demand and to aim to attract people to the area. The following tenures were mentioned:

Affordable family homes;

1-bed flats close to town centres;

Executive homes; and

Bungalows.

5.22 Limited feedback was given about the land currently being held by stakeholders however of the feedback obtained, stakeholders were holding both green and brownfield land. One stakeholder added that they were holding land in Workington, Cockermouth and Wigton. A number of stakeholders were developing affordable housing products in the area; these included rental options and community land trusts.

5.23 Stakeholders gave limited feedback for the reasons why they were interested in developing in the area. Of the feedback given, commitment to development in the area was highlighted as a key reason for the desire to develop locally.

5.24 In relation to Black and Minority Ethnic (BAME) households, very little feedback was given in terms of demand levels and market trends however the feedback obtained suggested that any issues amongst this demographic were minimal.

5.25 In terms of the key messages for the housing study in respect of new housing provision in Allerdale, respondents made the following points:-

Assessing and catering to the impact that an ageing population will have on housing;

Improving the condition of the existing local stock would help fight fuel poverty and may help small scale regeneration. Demolishing old houses is not the best way to secure social cohesion. New schemes should integrate with existing housing structures, not create new ghettos of wealth or poverty;

Prioritise data on the needs of local communities; and

Consider the geographies within Allerdale individually to ensure each area’s needs are being catered to directly.

Suggested future development profile of market dwellings 5.26 Households intending to move in the open market were asked in the Household

Survey what type and size of property they would like and expect to move to. This could then be compared with the current stock profile to identify any mismatches between availability and aspirations/expectation. The findings are set out in Table 5.5 and a summary is provided in Table 5.6. Of households moving, a majority would like to move to a house (64.2%), 26% would like to move to a bungalow, 5.3% to a flat and 4.5% to other options (which includes self-build and caravan/park homes). This compares with 67.8% who expect to move to a house, 22.7% to a bungalow, 5.2% to a flat and 4.2% to other options. A much higher proportion would like to move to a detached house

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(42.8%) but only 26.6% expect to. In contrast, higher proportions expect to move to a semi-detached house (26.4%) than would like to (14.5%).

Table 5.5 Open market dwelling stock and preferences

Dwelling type/size

Dwelling stock, likes and expectationsCurrent Private

Stock % Like % Expect %Detached house/cottage 1-2 Beds 1.7 5.6 2.8Detached house/cottage 3 Beds 10.3 17.5 13.4Detached house/cottage 4+ Beds 13.5 19.6 10.4Semi-detached house/cottage 1-2 Beds 3.7 2.5 8.3Semi-detached house/cottage with 3 Beds 18.1 9.5 15.2Semi-detached house/cottage 4+ Beds 5.7 2.6 2.9Terraced house/cottage 1-2 Beds 9.8 3.4 9.1Terraced house/cottage 3 Beds 12.8 2.9 4.7Terraced house/cottage 4+ Beds 4.6 0.7 1.0Bungalow 1-2 Beds 6.2 10.9 12.7Bungalow 3+ Beds 8.3 15.0 10.0Flat/Apartment 1 Bed 1.4 0.9 1.1Flat/Apartment 2 Beds 2.5 4.0 4.0Flat/Apartment 3+ Beds 0.4 0.4 0.2Other 1-2 Beds 0.8 2.1 2.6Other 3 Beds 0.4 1.8 1.6Other 4+ Beds 0.1 0.6 0.0Total 100.0 100.0 100.0Total households 37162 5409 4772


Table 5.6 Open market dwelling stock and preferences

Dwelling type/size summary% Profile of new dwelling stock based on:Current stock Like Expect

House 1-2 Beds 15.1 11.5 20.2House 3 Beds 41.2 29.9 33.3House 4+ Beds 23.7 22.9 14.4Bungalow 14.5 26.0 22.7Flat 4.2 5.3 5.2Other 1.3 4.5 4.2Total 100.0 100.0 100.0Total households 37162 5409 4772


5.27 This analysis of the 2016 Household Survey findings suggests that on the basis of household aspirations (likes), around three-quarters of households would like to move to a detached house with 3 or more bedrooms (37.1%), bungalows (26%) and semi-detached houses with 3 or more bedrooms (12%). Comparing this with the stock profile, the aspiration for three or more bedroom exceeds the

May 2016


proportion of dwelling stock currently available. The desire for bungalows also exceeds current stock availability and particularly for bungalows with 3 or more bedrooms. Development more reflective of household expectation would result in an increased emphasis on developing larger detached family houses along with larger bungalows.

5.28 Table 5.7 considers the current dwelling stock profile of open market dwellings by SHMA and then the extent to which this varies from the stock profile based on the aspirations and expectations of households planning to move (using SHMA-level data), based on the findings of the Household Survey. Where cells are colour-coded: a green spot indicates that the current proportion of dwelling stock is greater than the aspiration/expectation for that dwelling stock; a red spot indicates that the proportion of dwelling stock is lower than the aspiration/expectation. Therefore, a red spot suggests there is a lack of that particular type of dwelling type and size in that SHMA.

Concluding comments5.29 The purpose of this chapter has been to explore how key drivers of the local

market and underlying trends impact upon the structure of households and population moving forward.

5.30 This chapter has therefore considered the following three key primary drivers influencing the current and future housing market:

demographic information;

economic information; and

dwelling stock information.

5.31 In line with Government 2012-based population projections, Allerdale is forecast to see population decline of -1.1% over the period 2015 to 2037. Within this forecast, there will be significant growth (39.0%) in older age groups (65+ years).

5.32 The rate of employment in Allerdale is around 53.0% and 35.5% of households are wholly retired from work (2016 Household Survey). There is however a noticeable degree of polarisation within earnings, with 28.6% of all households receiving less than £15,600 per annum and 41.3% receiving at least £26,000 per annum.

5.33 According to the ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, lower quartile incomes in Allerdale are slightly lower than the regional and national averages, but median incomes in Allerdale are above the average for the North West.

5.34 The delivery of new build housing is increasing again since 2011/12.

May 2016


Table 5.7a Comparison between current dwelling stock and market aspirations


Table 5.7b Comparison between current dwelling stock and market expectations


May 2016


6. Housing need

Introduction6.1 This Chapter considers housing need and affordable housing requirements

within Allerdale.

6.2 Primary and secondary data sources have been used to assess existing housing need across all households in the Borough. There is also a full analysis of how housing need varies by SHMA, tenure and household type.

6.3 The affordable housing requirements arising are set out, including a suggested tenure split (between social/affordable rented and intermediate/shared ownership) and a consideration of existing and newly-forming households’ property type preferences.

6.4 The needs of particular groups are considered in more depth: families; older people; people with special needs and Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic Groups (BAME).

Current households in need6.5 A robust and defensible assessment of housing need is essential for the

development of affordable housing policies. Housing need can be defined as:

‘The quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance’23.

6.6 The 2016 Household Survey and a range of secondary data provide the robust and transparent evidence base required to assess housing need across the Allerdale area. This is presented in detail at Appendix C of this report and follows CLG modelling guidance.

6.7 Across Allerdale there are 3,135 existing households in need which represents 6.8% of all households (this is before a test of whether the household can or cannot afford open market prices or rents). Reasons for housing need are summarised in Table 6.1.

23 DCLG Planning Policy Statement 3 and DCLG Estimating housing need 2010

May 2016


Table 6.1 Housing need in Allerdale

Category Factor AllerdaleHomeless households or with insecure tenure

N1 Under notice, real threat of notice or lease coming to an end

184

N2 Too expensive, and in receipt of housing benefit or in arrears due to expense

169

Mismatch of housing need and dwellings

N3 Overcrowded according to the 'bedroom standard' model

536

N4 Too difficult to maintain 930

N5 Couples, people with children and single adults over 25 sharing a kitchen, bathroom or WC with another household

326

N6 Household containing people with mobility impairment or other special needs living in unsuitable accommodation

896

Dwelling amenities and condition

N7 Lacks a bathroom, kitchen or inside WC and household does not have resource to make fit

272

N8 Subject to major disrepair or unfitness and household does not have resource to make fit

112

Social needs N9 Harassment or threats of harassment from neighbours or others living in the vicinity which cannot be resolved except through a move

225

Total no. households in need (with one or more housing needs) 3,135Total Households 46,396% households in need 6.8Note: A household may have more than one housing need.


6.8 Table 6.2 summarises overall housing need (before further analysis to test the extent to which households can afford open market provision to offset their need) by SHMA and the extent to which housing need varies across Allerdale. The proportion of households in need is highest in North Lakes (8.9%) followed by Wigton (7.6%), Workington and Maryport (6.3%) and Cockermouth (6.0%).

May 2016


Table 6.2 Households in need by SHMA

SHMANo. H'holds in

need% H'holds

in needTotal no.

householdsCockermouth 240 6.0 4,032North Lakes 505 8.9 5,665Wigton 451 7.6 5,904Workington and Maryport 1,939 6.3 30,795Allerdale Total (All households in need) 3,135 6.8 46,396Source: 2016 Household Survey

6.9 Tables 6.3 and 6.4 demonstrate how the proportion of households in housing need varies by tenure and household type for Allerdale. Private renters are more likely to be in housing need, at 458 (8.8%) of households; followed by those in affordable housing at 713 (8.0%) of households.

6.10 Housing need alongside household composition data shows that ‘other’ types of households are most in need (25.9%), followed by lone parents with three or more children (18.1%) and couples with three or more children (12.6%). Parents (couples and lone parents) with adult children living at home are also more likely to be in housing need.

Table 6.3 Housing need by tenure

TenureNo. H'holds

in need% H'holds

in needTotal no.

householdsOwner Occupier 1,962 6.1 32,237Private Rented 458 8.8 5,228Affordable 714 8.0 8,931Allerdale Total (All households in need) 3,135 6.8 46,396Source: 2016 Household Survey

May 2016


Table 6.4 Housing need by household type

Household TypeNo. H'holds

in need

% H'holds in need

Total no. households

Single Adult (under 65) 447 6.0 7,425Single Adult (65 or over) 244 3.9 6,195Couple only (both under 65) 633 7.0 8,997Couple only (one or both over 65) 586 6.9 8,518Couple with 1 or 2 child(ren) under 18 228 4.2 5,432Couple with 3 or more children under 18 114 12.6 903Couple with child(ren) aged 18+ 273 6.5 4,194Lone parent with 1 or 2 child(ren) under 18 91 5.5 1,647Lone parent with 3 or more children under 18 37 18.1 204Lone parent with child(ren) aged 18+ 137 9.3 1,476Other type of household 344 25.9 1,329Allerdale Total (All households in need) 3,135 6.8 46,319Source: 2016 Household Survey

Affordable housing requirements6.11 A detailed analysis of the following factors determines overall affordable

housing requirements:

Households currently in housing which is unsuitable for their use and who are unable to afford to buy or rent in the market (backlog need);

New households forming who cannot afford to buy or rent in the market;

Existing households expected to fall into need;

The supply of affordable housing through social renting and intermediate tenure stock.

6.12 The needs assessment model advocated by the CLG has been used and detailed analysis of each stage of the model is presented at Appendix C. In addition to establishing the overall affordable housing requirements, analysis considers the supply/demand variations by SHMA, property designation (i.e. general needs and older person) and property size (number of bedrooms). Analysis provides a gross figure (absolute shortfalls in affordable provision) and a net figure (which takes into account supply of existing affordable accommodation). Modelling suggests an annual gross imbalance of 671 dwellings (Table 6.5) and after taking account of affordable supply an annual net imbalance of 175 affordable dwellings across Allerdale as shown in Table 6.6.

6.13 In terms of the size of affordable housing required, the gross need is split by general needs one/two-bedroom (52%), general needs three or more bedroom (30.8%) and older person (17%). It is therefore appropriate for the continued delivery of affordable housing to reflect underlying need.

6.14 Analysis is based on the next five years and in the absence of any updated information this should be extrapolated forward to the Local Plan period.

May 2016


Table 6.5 Gross annual affordable housing imbalance by SHMA, property size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 (excluding affordable supply)

SHMA



Table 6.6 Net annual affordable housing imbalance by SHMA, property size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 (including affordable supply)

Housing Market Area


TOTAL1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4+ Bed 1+ BedCockermouth 10 -25 3 8 3 -2North Lakes 25 26 17 7 14 88Wigton 13 8 -3 15 8 42Workington and Maryport -5 -13 -39 52 53 48Allerdale Total 42 -4 -23 82 78 175Sources: 2016 Household Survey; RP CORE Lettings and Sales

Tenure split6.15 In terms of the split between social/affordable and intermediate tenure products,

the 2016 Household Survey identified tenure preferences of existing and newly-forming households and also the extent to which intermediate tenure products could be afforded. The Council currently has a policy of delivering affordable housing based on a 75% social/affordable rented and 25% intermediate tenure split.

6.16 Table 6.7 reviews the tenures that existing households in need and newly-forming households would consider. Overall, existing households had a stronger preference for social/affordable rented and newly-forming households had a stronger preference for intermediate tenure options including shared ownership, low-cost home ownership and shared ownership.

May 2016


Table 6.7 Tenure preferences of existing households in need and newly-forming households requiring affordable housing

Tenure Existing (%)Newly-forming

(%) Total (%)Social/Affordable Rented 71.9 53.6 59.1Intermediate 28.1 46.4 40.9Total 100 100 100Total existing need and annual newly forming 267 617 884


6.17 Overall, analysis would suggest a tenure split based around 60% social/affordable rent and 40% intermediate tenure based on household preferences. Tenure split by SHMA is summarised in Table 6.8. This shows the majority of preferences are for social/affordable rented across all areas with the exception of Cockermouth where the preference is strongest for intermediate tenure.

Table 6.8 Tenure preferences by Strategic HMA

TenureSHMA (%)

Cockermouth North Lakes WigtonWorkington &

Maryport AllerdaleSocial/Affordable Rented 34.2 55.4 60.8 67.7 59.1

Intermediate 65.8 44.6 39.2 32.3 40.9Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0Total existing need and annual newly forming 57 227 103 594 884

May 2016


Table 6.9 Tenure preferences by SHMA of existing households in need and newly-forming households requiring affordable housing

TenureExisting

households in need (%)

Newly-forming households (%) Total (%)

CockermouthSocial/Affordable Rented 79.0 34.2 34.2Intermediate 21.0 65.8 65.8Total 100.0 100 100Total existing need and annual newly forming 0 57 57

North LakesSocial/Affordable Rented 59.9 48.2 55.4Intermediate 40.1 51.8 44.6Total 100.0 100 100Total existing need and annual newly forming 140 87 227

WigtonSocial/Affordable Rented 69.0 56.2 60.8Intermediate 31.0 43.8 39.2Total 100 100 100Total existing need and annual newly forming 37 66 103

Workington and MaryportSocial/Affordable Rented 75.7 64.1 67.7Intermediate 24.3 35.9 32.3Total 100 100 100Total existing need and annual newly forming 186 408 594


Property type preferences6.18 Analysis of affordable property type preferences from the Household Survey

(Table 6.10) suggests that a range of dwellings are required, with 70.6% preferring houses, 17.2% preferring bungalows and 12.3% preferring flats. Variations in affordable property type preference by SHMA are presented in Table 6.11.

May 2016


Table 6.10 Property type preferences

Type preferences Existing (%)Newly-forming

(%) Total (%)House 37.1 71.7 61.3Flat 13.7 17.3 16.2Bungalow 49.1 11.0 22.5Total 100.0 100.0 100.0Total existing and newly-forming need 267 617 884

Based on expectations of existing households in need and what newly-formed households have moved to in the past 5 years


Table 6.11 Property type preferences by Strategic HMATenure SHMA (%)

CockermouthNorth Lakes Wigton

Workington and Maryport Allerdale

House 42.4 61.7 64.1 46.7 61.3Flat 41.3 19.5 10.6 29.5 16.2Bungalow 16.3 18.8 25.2 23.8 22.5Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Estimates of household groups who have particular housing requirements

Introduction6.19 There are a range of household groups who have particular housing

requirements and this section focuses on the needs of families, households with links to the Armed Forces, older people, people requiring specialist support and BAME households.

Families6.20 The 2016 Household Survey found that families (that is couples and lone

parents with dependent children) account for around 17.6% of households across Allerdale. A further 12.3% are couples and lone parents with adult children (aged 18 or over) living with them. The analysis assumes therefore a total of 29.9% of households who are families (including those with adult children still living at home). The current dwelling profile and market aspirations of families, as identified in the Household Survey, are summarised in Table 6.12. This suggests a particular aspiration for houses with three and four or more bedrooms (71.9% of families). More households would expect (43.8%) three bedroom houses than aspire to have one (28.3%), but the proportion aspiring to four plus bedroom houses (43.5%) exceeds the expectation

May 2016


(29.7%); 14.6% of families aspire to live in a bungalow and 9.5% expect to move into this form of accommodation

6.21 In terms of housing need (refer back to Table 6.4), compared with the overall proportion of households in need of 6.8%, 6.4% of all families are in housing need. Overall, 5.4% of families with children under 18 are in housing need. The proportion of households in need is highest amongst lone parents with three or more children under 18 (18.1%) and couples with three or more children under 18 (12.6%). By comparison, couples and lone parents with one or two children under 18 are less likely to be in housing need, at 4.2% and 5.5% respectively. Overall, 7.2% of families (couples and lone parents) with adult children living at home are in some form of housing need. This includes 6.5% of couples with adult children and 9.3% of lone parents with adult children.

6.22 Modelling of affordable housing requirements suggests that a range of affordable dwellings are required including two and three-bedroom dwellings which will help to address the needs of families.

May 2016


Table 6.12 Property type preferences – Families

Dwelling typeCurrent dwellings

(%) Like (%)Expect

(%)Detached house/cottage 1-2 Beds 1.4 1.5 3.2Detached house/cottage 3 Beds 8.5 10.2 12.4Detached house/cottage 4+ Beds 14.4 36.5 20.0Semi-detached house/cottage 1-2 Beds 4.3 1.3 3.9Semi-detached house/cottage with 3 Beds 24.3 10.8 25.3Semi-detached house/cottage 4+ Beds 8.7 5.9 7.8Terraced house/cottage 1-2 Beds 6.2 3.5 4.6Terraced house/cottage 3 Beds 17.2 7.4 6.1Terraced house/cottage 4+ Beds 6.3 1.1 1.9Bungalow 1-2 Beds 1.6 3.7 4.8Bungalow 3+ Beds 5.3 10.9 4.7Flat/Apartment 2 Beds 0.9 3.3 0.7Flat/Apartment 3+ Beds 0.4 0.4 0.0Other 1-2 beds Bed 0.0 1.9 3.1Other 3 beds 0.4 0.0 0.4Other 4+ Beds 0.2 0.0 0.0Self-Build 1-2 beds 0.0 0.0 0.0Self-Build 3-4 beds 0.0 1.6 1.2Total 100.0 100.0 100.0Total households 13,662 1,852 1,669SummaryHouses 1/2 Beds 11.9 6.3 11.7Houses 3 Beds 50.0 28.3 43.8Houses 4+ Beds 29.4 43.5 29.7Bungalow 6.9 14.6 9.5Flat 1.3 3.7 0.7Other 0.5 1.9 3.4Self-Build 0.0 1.6 1.2Total 100.0 100.0 100.0Total households 13,662 1,852 1,669


Armed Forces accommodation6.23 The Household Survey 2016 identified 736 households across Allerdale with

connections to the Armed Forces. Of these, the following characteristics were identified:

74.3% lived in Workington/Maryport, 13% in Wigton, 9.2% in North Lakes and 3.6% in Cockermouth;

73.4% were owner occupiers, 6.7% private renters and 19.8% lived in affordable housing; and

May 2016


35.6% had an income of less than £300 each week, 21.5% had an income of between £300 and £500 each week and 42.7% had an income of £500 or more each week.

6.24 The Household Survey identified 145 households that were currently in the Armed Forces, of whom 68.5% planned to leave the Forces during the period 2015-2018. A total of 58 households reported that they included Armed Forces personnel with injuries that required adapted accommodation. 35 respondents said that current Armed Forces personnel within their household will require temporary accommodation when they leave the Forces.

6.25 The Household Survey identified 254 households including a bereaved spouse or civil partner who required housing. Of these, 61.9% were owner occupiers, 32.0% rented social/affordable accommodation and 6.1% rented privately.

Illness/disability 6.26 Across Allerdale, the 2016 Household Survey identified a total of 13,914

households (30%) where the respondent and/or second resident had an illness/disability. A total of 21,430 residents were identified as having an illness/disability and Table 6.13 summarises the range of illness/disability reported across Allerdale. The most frequently mentioned illnesses/disabilities were long-standing illness/health conditions and physical/mobility impairment.

Table 6.13 Illness/disability

Illness/DisabilityNo.

People*% of

people*Physical / mobility impairment 6,730 8.6Learning disability / difficulty 546 0.7Mental health problem 2,460 3.1Visual impairment 1,686 2.1Hearing impairment 3,381 4.3Long standing illness or health condition 8,374 10.7Older Age-related illness or disability 1,614 2.1Other 4,470 5.7Total households containing person* with illness/disability 13,914

Total no. of people (1st and 2nd in household) 78,444

*Relates to respondent and second person in household

Note: respondents could state one or more illness/disability


Older people6.27 A major strategic challenge for the Council is to ensure a range of appropriate

housing provision, adaptation and support for the area’s older population. The

May 2016


number of people across Allerdale area aged 65 or over is projected to increase from 22,600 in 2015 to 31,600 by 2037 (39.8% increase)24.

6.28 The 2016 Household Survey found that the majority of older people (81.0%) want to stay in their own homes with help and support when needed (Table 6.14) and around 17.0% would consider buying a property on the open market. Sheltered accommodation and Extra Care housing are attractive options, with a slight preference for rent over owner occupation but limited interest in part-rent/buying. 9.2% of older households would consider co-housing. This evidence suggests a need to continue to provide a range of older persons’ housing options. Additionally, providing a wider range of older persons’ accommodation has the potential to free-up larger family accommodation.

Table 6.14 Older persons’ housing options

Housing option

% would consider60-74years

75 +years Total

Continue to live in current home with support when needed 78.8 86.1 81.0

Buying a property on the open market 20.9 8.6 17.1Rent a property from a private landlord 3.5 2.0 3.1Rent from HA 8.7 8.9 8.7Sheltered accommodation - To Rent 13.8 14.3 14.0Sheltered accommodation - To Buy 13.3 11.5 12.8Sheltered accommodation - Part Rent/Buy 4.8 4.2 4.6Extra care housing - To Rent 9.5 11.3 10.1Extra care housing - To Buy 9.0 9.5 9.1Extra care housing - Part Rent/Buy 2.9 4.2 3.3Residential care home 4.0 13.1 6.8Co-housing 9.4 9.0 9.2Total households 10,071 4,484 14,555Source: 2016 Household Survey

6.29 Of all older person households, 11.1% would like to move in the next five years, 2.9% would like to move but are unable to and 86% do not want to move. Of households with a head of household aged 65 and over who were unable to move, 42.1% stated they could not afford to and just under a quarter stated a lack of suitable properties in the area/type wanted (Table 6.15).

24 ONS 2012-based Population Projections

May 2016


Table 6.15 Reasons why households containing a head of household aged 65 and over are unable to move

Cannot afford to (other properties too expensive) 42.1Negative Equity 4.3Lack of suitable property: with adaptations needed 12.3Lack of suitable property: in the area wanted 24.7Lack of suitable property: of type wanted 19.1Need to receive support 1.1Employment (work locally) 1.9Other reasons (unspecified) 36.8Total households 340

6.30 Of households with a head of household aged 65 and over and planning to move, the Household Survey found that the main reasons for moving were a need for smaller property (29.5%), need for housing suitable for an older/disabled person (17.5%) and want to buy (12.1%).

6.31 Table 6.16 summarises the dwelling type and size aspirations and expectations of households containing an older person, as identified by the 2016 Household Survey. Aspirations and expectations tended to be similar and the majority of households aspired towards and expected to move to houses and bungalows. Aspirations and expectations of dwelling size tended to be similar, although higher proportions aspired to move to a three-bedroom dwelling while more expected to more to a 1 or 2-bedroom dwelling. There was also some aspiration and expectation of moving to a property with four or more bedrooms.

Table 6.16 Dwelling aspirations and expectations of households containing a head of household aged 65 or over

Dwelling type Aspiration (%) Expectation (%)House 33.6 34.4Bungalow 50.6 46.3Flat 6.2 6.2Other 1.8 1.9Older/supported 7.8 11.1Total 100.0 100.0No. bedrooms Aspiration (%) Expectation (%)1/2 Beds 49.0 55.43 Beds 44.2 40.24 or more beds 6.8 4.4Total 100.0 100.0Total households 1151 926


6.32 Table 6.17 considers the future housing choices being considered by households with a Head of household aged 65 or over with reference to the

May 2016


number of bedrooms aspired towards and expected to move to. This shows that 63.1% of households expected to downsize (i.e. move to a property with fewer bedrooms), although households were slightly more likely to aspire to moving to a property with the same or larger number of bedrooms.

Table 6.17 Future housing choices (upsizing/downsizing)

Housing choice Aspiration (%) Expectation (%)Downsizing (moving to a smaller property) 53.4 63.1Staying same 34.9 26.5Moving to larger property 11.7 10.4TOTAL 100.0 100.0Total households 1166 991

Assistance in the home6.33 The range of assistance required from all households including older person

households is explored in Table 6.18. Particularly noted across both age groups and in particular by older people (65+ years) is the need for help with gardening and cleaning. 38.9% of older people said that they needed assistance with gardening, 24.9% with cleaning and 20.5% with practical help.

6.34 Table 6.19 considers the extent to which households require assistance now or within the next five years.

Table 6.18 Type of assistance required either now or in next 5 years by age group

Assistance required

Age group (% of households)Under

65 years 65+ years TotalCompany 6.0 8.4 6.8Carer 1.7 2.0 1.8Personal Care 6.9 13.8 9.1Practical Help 8.0 20.5 11.9Cleaning 8.6 24.9 13.7Gardening 17.6 38.9 24.3Total households 31,866 14,530 46,396


May 2016


Table 6.19 Type of assistance required either now or in next 5 years by when required

Assistance requiredPercentage of households

Now within next 5 years TotalCompany 2.0 4.3 6.3Carer 0.5 1.2 1.7Personal Care 2.9 5.6 8.5Practical Help 4.3 6.9 11.2Cleaning 4.9 7.9 12.9Gardening 12.6 10.2 22.8Total households 31,866 14,530 46,396


Adaptations6.35 The 2016 Household Survey asked whether adaptations were required by

households (Table 6.20). The most frequently mentioned overall were adaptations to bathrooms and internal handrails. In the 65+ age group, adaptations to bathroom were mentioned by 10.8% of respondents and internal handrails by 10.1%.

6.36 Table 6.21 considers the extent to which households require adaptations now or within the next five years.

6.37 Resources for aids and adaptations remain tight, particularly for households in the private sector. Alternative sources of funding, such as equity loans, should be considered to finance remedial measures required by older person households.

Table 6.20 Adaptations required either now or in next 5 years by age group

Adaptation required

Age group (% of households)

TotalUnder

65 years 65+ yearsLever Door 1.7 1.7 1.7Wheelchair access 2.4 3.4 2.7Stair Lift 3.0 7.3 4.4Downstairs WC 3.9 4.5 4.1External Handrails 4.0 7.9 5.2Internal Handrails 4.6 10.1 6.3Adaptions to Bathroom 6.7 10.8 8.0Adaptions to Kitchens 4.5 3.3 4.2Total households 10,397 7,992 18,389


May 2016


Table 6.21 Type of adaptation required either now or in next 5 years by when required

Adaptation requiredPercentage of households

Now within next 5 years TotalLever Door 0.5 1.2 1.7Wheelchair access 0.7 2.0 2.7Stair Lift 0.8 3.5 4.4Downstairs WC 1.4 2.8 4.1External Handrails 1.7 3.5 5.2Internal Handrails 2.2 4.1 6.3Adaptions to Bathroom 3.0 5.0 8.0Adaptions to Kitchens 1.4 2.7 4.2Total households 31,866 14,530 46,396


Home improvements6.38 The Household Survey found that in terms of home improvements (Table 6.22)

the most frequently mentioned were repairs, better heating and double glazing. Amongst older households, there was particular emphasis on repair (22.1%) and better heating (9.0%). When home improvements are required is explored in Table 6.23.

Table 6.22 Home improvements required either now or in next 5 years by age group

Home improvement required

Age group (% of households)Under

65 years 65+ years TotalVentilation 3.8 1.7 3.2Sound Proofing 3.5 1.9 3.0Increase property size 4.6 1.0 3.5To Access 2.9 3.4 3.0Double glazing 10.9 6.2 9.4More insulation 10.3 5.6 8.8Better heating 12.4 9.0 11.3Repair 11.5 22.1 14.8Community Alarm 1.7 5.5 2.9Security Alarm 4.3 4.4 4.3Total households 20,455 8,034 28,489


May 2016


Table 6.23 Home improvements required either now or in next 5 years by when required

Home improvement requiredPercentage

Now within next 5 years TotalVentilation 1.7 2.4 3.2Sound Proofing 1.6 1.5 3.1Property Size 1.0 2.5 3.5To Access 0.8 2.2 3.0Double Glazing 4.1 5.4 9.5More Insulation 4.7 4.1 8.8Better Heating 5.0 6.3 11.3Repair 7.0 7.7 14.7Community Alarm 0.8 2.2 2.9Security Alarm 1.9 2.4 4.3Total households 31,866 14,530 46,396


Current level of adapted properties6.39 The 2016 Household Survey found that overall 6.4% of all properties across

Allerdale had been adapted or purpose built for a person with a long-term illness, health problem or disability. This varied by tenure, from 5.0% in private rented properties, 4.1% in owner occupied and 15.9% in affordable accommodation. 6.1% of households said they required care or support to enable them to stay in their current home. 69.2% of households stated that there was sufficient space for a carer to stay overnight if this was needed – although across the affordable sector this fell to 52.2%.

Specialist support requirements6.40 A range of specialist client groups are supported across Allerdale. These

include people with learning disabilities, mental health needs, physical disabilities and older people with dementia.

6.41 Based on Supported CORE Lettings data, Table 6.24 summarises the type of client groups accommodated in social/affordable housing across Allerdale area over the three-year period 2010/11 to 2012/13. Data indicates that a range of groups are accommodated in RP specialist provision, most notably older people with support needs and people with drug or mental health problems.

May 2016


Table 6.24 Client groups accommodated in social/affordable sector in Allerdale 2010/11 to 2012/13

Client groupTotal Numberover 3 years

Annual Average

People with learning disabilities 4 1People with mental health problems 43 14People with drug problems 43 14Older people with support needs 252 84Total 342 114

Source: Supported CORE Lettings data

Stakeholder views on specialist housing provision

6.42 Stakeholder survey respondents working in this area were working a range of client groups including general needs, the homeless and the vulnerable. Asked what changes providers are seeing in their client groups, one stakeholder noted that “people are renting for longer terms but want cheaper rent” yet no other feedback was received or offered around changes to the amount of demand present. Stakeholders believe that affordability was the biggest barrier to delivery of housing in the area.

6.43 No feedback was given to help identify where the areas of high and low demand are for the specialist housing sector. However, amongst community groups demand was noted for affordable family homes offering two or preferably three, bedrooms and bungalows.

6.44 Stakeholders offered limited feedback on the housing stock shortages for independent living. One stakeholder highlighted bungalows as a key area of need whilst “fire walls” were noted by another stakeholder as the key issue around physical adaptations of property. Equally, bungalows and Extra Care facilities were highlighted as the type of housing that should be built to meet the needs of older people yet no feedback was given about the type of housing that should be built to cater to those with additional needs.

6.45 Stakeholders offered no feedback on the affect that changes to housing policy have had on the ability to deliver services to vulnerable groups and no feedback was given about the key messages for the housing study in respect of specialist housing provision in Allerdale.

Homeless households6.46 CLG Homelessness Statistics for 2014/1525 indicate that a total of 888 decisions

were made on households declaring themselves as homeless across Allerdale (Table 6.25). Of these households, 264 were classified as homeless and in priority need. Over the five years 2010/11 to 2014/15, an annual average of 178 decisions were made across Allerdale and an average of 53 households each year were declared as homeless and in priority need.

25 DCLG Homeless Statistics Table 784

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Table 6.25 Homeless decisions and acceptances 2010/11 to 2014/15

Year Decisions made Accepted as homeless2010/11 334 1042011/12 220 632012/13 129 412013/14 107 262014/15 98 30Total 888 2645-Year Annual Average 177.6 52.8Source: CLG Homelessness Statistics

Households previously homeless 6.47 The 2016 Household Survey identified 375 households who had been

previously homeless or living in temporary accommodation and had moved to their present accommodation in the past five years.

6.48 Table 6.26 presents a range of information relating to the characteristics of previously homeless households and the dwelling choices that they have made. 42.9% of households previously homeless have moved into private rented accommodation, 38.7% have moved into the social/affordable sector and 18.4% into owner occupied dwellings. 37.9% of previously homeless households have moved into houses and the remainder into bungalows (21.9%) and flats (40.8%).

6.49 The incomes of previously homeless households are generally low with 72.9% on a gross annual income of less than £20,800. 56.0% are single adults under 65 and 12.3% are couples with at least 1 or 2 children under 18.

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Table 6.26 Characteristics of households previously homelessHousehold Type % Property Type %Single Adult (under 65) 56.0 House 37.9Single Adult (65 or over) 5.3 Bungalow 21.9Couple only (both under 65) 7.2 Flat 40.8Couple only (one or both over 65) 6.4Couple with at least 1 or 2 child(ren) under 18 12.3Lone parent with at least 1 or 2 child(ren) under 18

8.3

Lone parent with child(ren) aged 18+ 4.3Total 100.0 Total 100.0Current tenure % Origin %Owner Occupied 18.4 Within Allerdale 87.7Private Rented 42.9 Outside Allerdale 12.3Social/affordable/Affordable 38.7Total 100.0 Total 100.0Current income (Gross annual) % Property size %Under £15,600 58.1 0/1 Bed 28.5£15,600 to £26,000 13.3 2 Beds 45.1£26,000+ 22.7 3 or more Beds 26.7Total 100.0 Total 100.0Base: 375 households previously homelessSource: 2016 Household Survey

Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic households (BAME)6.50 The 2016 Household Survey indicates that 98.6% of heads of household

describe themselves as ‘White British’ and 1.4% describe themselves as having other ethnicities. Of these, 0.3% are White Central/Eastern European, 0.3% White Irish and 0.5% are other White groups. A further 0.1% are Asian/Asian British, 0.3% have a mixed or other ethnicity.

6.51 The most ethnically diverse SHMA is Cockermouth (2.0% of all heads of household have an ethnicity other than White British) and the most ethnically diverse ward is Dalton (13.2%).

6.52 Information on BAME households based on the 2016 Household Survey includes:

● 12.8% of BAME households live in Cockermouth, 16.6% live in North Lakes, 9.2% live in Wigton and 61.6% live in Workington and Maryport;

● 48.7% are owner occupiers, 37.0% rent privately and 14.2% live in affordable housing (social/affordable or intermediate tenures);

● 34.5% had a gross income of less than £15,600 per year, 33.0% received between £15,600 and £26,000 per year and 32.3% received more than £26,000 per year;

● 64 BAME households were in some form of housing need (10.1%); with being under notice, real threat of notice or lease coming to an end being the key reason; and

● 6.0% were dissatisfied with the state of repair of their homes, compared with 5.9% of all households.

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6.53 The 2011 Census identified 14 people with Gypsy and Traveller ethnicity living in nine households. The 2013 Cumbria Gypsy and Traveller Accommodation Assessment identified a need for 10 Gypsy and Traveller pitches over the period 2013/14 to 2028/29.

Summary6.54 This Chapter and the associated Appendices provides a clear definition of

housing need and affordable housing required, along with a step-by-step explanation of the Housing Study model.

6.55 Analysis has identified a total of 3,135 households in housing need, representing 6.8% of all households across Allerdale. Assessment reveals that there is a net annual imbalance of 175 affordable dwellings across Allerdale.

6.56 Overall, analysis would suggest a tenure split of around 60% social/affordable rented and 40% intermediate tenure based on household preferences.

6.57 In terms of the size of affordable housing required, the analysis indicates a need for a range of dwelling sizes, with 55% of gross need for smaller one and two-bedroom general needs, 29.8% three or more bedroom general needs and 15.2% older person dwellings.

6.58 In terms of intermediate affordable housing for sale the analysis reveals that around 42.9% all households in need can afford an intermediate affordable house at around the £80,000 level or below and 26.2% could afford up to £140,000.

6.59 Around 10.0% of all households in need are older people (65+ years). Whilst this proportion may seem low it is reflective of the high levels of owner occupation amongst older people and therefore the ability under the assessment model to meet their own housing needs in situ or through the sale / release of equity.

6.60 It is also evident that the vast majority of older people wish to stay within their existing homes. For most, this is an informed and appropriate choice where current and future housing needs can be addressed through in situ solutions (including adaptations). However, there is some notable concern regarding a lack of choice within the market especially for owner-occupiers who are unable to find suitable downsizing properties and options.

6.61 Whilst this concern falls outside of the strict definition of housing need, the impact and influence of this potential lack of fluidity within the market has repercussions upon the overall operation of the housing market and the ability of households to trade up into properties released by older people.

6.62 For those older person households wishing to remain in their own homes but requiring assistance and adaptations the most frequently mentioned are help with gardening, cleaning and adaptations to bathrooms. Similarly, the need for domiciliary assistance is weighted towards gardening and cleaning.

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7. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues

7.1 This document has been prepared to equip the Council and their partners with robust, defensible and transparent information to help inform strategic decision-making and the formulation of appropriate housing and planning policies. The work also takes account of the National Planning Policy Framework which came into effect in March 2012 and Planning Practice Guidance, Housing and economic development needs assessments (last updated February 2016).

7.2 The Housing Study will help the Council plan for a mix of housing based on current and future demographic trends, market trends and the needs of different groups in the community. Specifically, the Housing Study identifies the size, type and tenure of housing required by SHMA by considering current market demand relative to supply; and also identifies a continued affordable housing imbalance across Allerdale.

7.3 This concluding chapter summarises key messages from the research findings, structured around a commentary on the current and future housing markets; the interactions of Allerdale with other areas; and relates findings to key local strategic issues.

The Housing Market Area7.4 An analysis of 2011 Census migration data suggests that 82.0% of moving

households originated from within Allerdale and 74.5% of employees live and work within the Borough. Former Government guidance suggested that housing markets are self-contained if at least 70% of moves take place within the area.

7.5 Allerdale can be described as a self-contained housing market on the basis of migration flows and travel to work patterns.

The current housing market7.6 This study provides up to date information on the housing stock in the Council

area and how the stock profile varies by market area is presented in data tabulations accompanying this report.

7.7 This study assumes a total of 48,343 households26 (occupied dwellings) in Allerdale, based on a total of 46,396 dwellings, 857 vacant properties and 1,181 second homes27. Overall, the 2016 Household Survey shows that:

76.1% of occupied properties are houses, 15.5% are bungalows, 7.4% are flats/apartments or maisonettes and 1.4% are other property types (e.g. caravans);

5% have one bedroom/bedsit, 26.9% have two bedrooms, 47.1% have three bedrooms and 21% have four or more bedrooms;

26 2015 Council Tax data27 2015 Council Tax data

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29.6% of properties were built before 1919, a further 10.3% were built between 1919 and 1944, 19.4% between 1945 and 1964, 19.2% between 1965 and 1984, 15.4% between 1985 and 2004 and 6.2% have been built since 2005;

69.5% of properties are owner-occupied, 19.2% are affordable (social/affordable rented or shared ownership) and 11.3% are private rented (or tied accommodation).

Housing markets and mobility7.8 A range of material has been gathered to help identify market drivers and the

characteristics of the Allerdale Housing Market Area and linkages with other areas.

7.9 An analysis of household mobility using 2016 Household Survey data suggests that of households moving in the past five years, 69.8% originated in Allerdale and 30.2% moved into the Borough. Most in-migrants to Allerdale moved into the private housing sector, with around 59.9% moving into owner occupation and 27.4% into private renting. Moving to be closer to work/new job, to move to a better neighbourhood/more pleasant area and to be closer to family or friends to give/receive support were key migration drivers. 81.9% of in-migrant households had a Household aged under 65 and 18.1% were aged 65 and over; overall 56.7% were in employment and 41.3% had an income (of Household and partner) of at least £26,000 each year.

Future housing market7.10 The population of Allerdale is estimated to be 96,000 in 201528 and this is

projected to decrease by -1.1% to 94,900 by 203729. Over the next few decades, there will be a marked increase in the number and proportion of residents aged 65 and over which is expected to increase by 39.8% from 22,600 in 2015 to 31,600 in 2037.

Housing need and demand

Delivering new housing7.11 Households intending to move in the open market were asked in the 2016

Household Survey what type and size of property they would like and expect to move to. This could then be compared with the current stock profile to identify any mismatches between availability and aspirations/expectation. Of households moving, a majority would like to move to a house (64.2%), 26% would like to move to a bungalow, 5.3% to a flat and 4.2% to other property types. This compares with 67.8% who expect to move to a house, 22.7% to a bungalow, 5.2% to a flat and 4.2% to other property types. A much higher proportion would like to move to a detached house (42.8%) but only 26.6%

28 ONS 2012-based population projections29 ONS 2012-based population projections

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expect to. In contrast, higher proportions expect to move to a semi-detached house (26.4%) than would like to (14.5%).

7.12 Future development should focus on delivering to address identified mismatches and reflect household aspirations.

7.13 The scale of affordable requirements has been assessed by taking into account the annual need from existing and newly-forming households within each SHMA and comparing this with the supply of affordable (social/affordable rent and intermediate tenure dwellings). The overall gross need for affordable housing is 671 dwellings each year. However, there is capacity of around 496 affordable dwellings each year, which results in an overall net imbalance of 175 affordable dwellings each year. In terms of the size of affordable housing required, the analysis indicates a need for a range of dwelling sizes, with 52% of gross need for smaller one and two bedroom general needs, 30.8% for three or more bedroom general needs and 17% for older person dwellings. It is therefore appropriate for the continued delivery of affordable housing to reflect underlying need.

7.14 A tenure split of around 60% social/affordable rented and 40% intermediate tenure is suggested based on household aspirations.

7.15 In summary, key drivers in determining the tenure and type of future development include:

The need to continue open market development to satisfy household aspirations, in particular the development of three and four-bedroom houses (particularly detached) and three-bedroom bungalows;

Developing an increasing range of housing and support products for older people;

Delivering additional affordable housing to help offset the identified net shortfalls; and diversifying the range of affordable options by developing intermediate tenure dwellings and products; and

The economic viability of delivering affordable housing on sites across Allerdale.

Improving the quality of existing stock7.16 Strategic challenges include reducing the level of vacant dwellings and

improving the quality of existing dwellings through better energy efficiency and modernisation.

Vacant stock7.17 There are an estimated 857 (1.8%)30 vacant properties across Allerdale and

these are mainly in the private sector. Properties can be empty for a variety of reasons which include: the properties are too difficult to repair or are in the process of being repaired; they are in the process of being sold; they have been bought for capital investment; or they are in probate.

30 2015 Council Tax data

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7.18 The Council should continue to consider identifying the reasons why properties are empty and identify mechanisms for bringing them back into use. Mechanisms could include:

Financial/professional help for repairs and improvements in the form of equity loans; grant aid for renovation and subsequent leasing to a Housing Association for a fixed term; a professional service to manage repairs or full renovation; and

Assistance with letting management or the sale of a property.

Satisfaction and repair7.19 Although the vast majority of households (84.2%) are satisfied with the

condition of their dwellings, 5.9% of households were dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. Levels of dissatisfaction were highest amongst housing association and private rented households, and households living in maisonettes and other dwelling types (e.g. caravans).

7.20 Improving the energy efficiency of dwellings and modernisation of stock is an important driver to improving the quality of existing stock and extends beyond those households expressing dissatisfaction. Given the need to reduce energy consumption, improve thermal comfort and future proof households from spikes in energy prices, retrofitting stock with improved insulation, heating systems and solar panels is likely to become a significant strategic issue.

The ageing population and addressing the needs of vulnerable people

7.21 A key challenge for the Council is to ensure a greater diversity of support services are made available to older people wanting to stay in their own home and develop funding mechanisms to achieve this. Particularly noted is the need for help with gardening and cleaning.

7.22 Additionally, the range of housing options available to older people needs to be diversified, for instance through the development of open market housing marketed at older people and the development of sheltered housing, Extra Care accommodation and co-housing.

NPPF requirements7.23 Paragraph 159 of the NPPF states that Local Planning Authorities should have

a clear understanding of housing needs in their area and they should:

Prepare a Strategic Housing Market Assessment to assess their full housing needs, working with neighbouring authorities where Housing Market Areas cross administrative boundaries. The SHMA should identify the scale and mix of housing and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the plan period that:

- Meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change;

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- Addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the needs of different groups in the community (such as, but not limited to, families with children, older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own homes); and

- Caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this demand.

7.24 The material in this Housing Study provides an evidence base to inform strategic decision making and has:

evidenced the scale of affordable housing need and the specific affordable requirements necessary to offset the imbalance between supply and need;

reviewed market demand and the range of dwellings required to satisfy household expectations and aspirations; and

reflected upon the needs of different groups of the population, in particular older people and those requiring specialist support requirements.

Final comments7.25 Appropriate housing and planning policies have a fundamental role to play in

the delivery of thriving, inclusive and sustainable areas. These policies need to be underpinned with high quality data. This study has provided a wealth of up-to-date social, economic, demographic and housing data for Allerdale.

7.26 This research has reflected upon the housing market attributes of Allerdale and interactions with other areas. The report signposts future strategic challenges which include the ongoing delivery of new market and affordable housing to address need and support economic growth; diversifying the range of affordable tenures available to local residents; improving the condition and energy efficiency of existing stock; and addressing the requirements of older people and vulnerable groups.

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Introduction to Technical Appendices

Technical Appendix A: Research methodology

Technical Appendix B: Policy review

Technical Appendix C: Housing need

Technical Appendix D: Monitoring and updating

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Technical Appendix A: Research Methodology

Overall approachA.1 A multi-method approach was adopted in order to prepare a robust and credible

Housing Study for Allerdale Borough Council:

A sample survey of households across the Allerdale area. A total of 32,161 households were initially contacted and a telephone survey boosted responses in the urban areas of Workington and Maryport. A total of 5,557 responses were achieved and used in data analysis. This represents a 17.3% response rate overall);

An online questionnaire of key stakeholders including Local Authorities, County Councils, Voluntary Agencies and Registered Providers;

Interviews with estate and letting agents operating within the Borough; and

A review of relevant secondary data including the 2011 Census, house price trends, CORE lettings data and CLG Statistics.

Baseline dwelling stock information and survey sample errors

A.2 Table A1 summarises total dwelling stock and the number of households contacted by survey area, achieved responses and sample errors.

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Table A1 Household Survey sample information

WardTotal

HouseholdsTotal

Responses% of household

respondingAccuracy/

Sample errorAll Saints 1982 208 10.5 ± 6.4%Aspatria 1591 239 15.0 ± 5.8%Boltons 284 61 21.5 ± 11.1%Broughton St Bridget's 1910 356 18.6 ± 4.7%Christchurch 2050 218 10.6 ± 6.3%Clifton 772 94 12.2 ± 9.5%Dalton 823 171 20.8 ± 6.7%Ellen 1523 215 14.1 ± 6.2%Ellenborough 1687 114 6.8 ± 8.9%Ewanrigg 1180 95 8.1 ± 9.6%Flimby 1456 89 6.1 ± 10.1%Harrington 1435 91 6.3 ± 9.9%Holme 851 98 11.5 ± 9.3%Marsh 753 148 19.7 ± 7.2%Moorclose 2029 93 4.6 ± 9.9%Moss Bay 2064 91 4.4 ± 10.0%Netherhall 1294 91 7.0 ± 9.9%Seaton 2252 320 14.2 ± 5.1%Silloth 1583 253 16.0 ± 5.6%Solway 731 132 18.1 ± 7.7%St John's 1634 92 5.6 ± 9.9%St Michael's 3803 183 4.8 ± 7.1%Stainburn 1410 85 6.0 ± 10.3%Wampool 729 141 19.3 ± 7.4%Warnell 524 112 21.4 ± 8.2%Waver 779 147 18.9 ± 7.3%Wharrels 768 140 18.2 ± 7.5%Wigton 2765 415 15.0 ± 4.4%NON-LDNP TOTAL 40661 4492 11.0 ± 1.4%

LDNP - Cluster 1 4129 748 18.1 ± 3.2%LDNP - Cluster 2 412 77 18.7 ± 10.1%LDNP - Cluster 3 374 75 20.1 ± 10.1%LDNP - Cluster 4 820 165 20.1 ± 6.8%LDNP TOTAL 5735 1065 18.6 ± 2.7%

Source: Council Tax Data 2015

1. Sample error is based on the 95% confidence interval which is the industry standard to establish result accuracy.

Weighting and grossingA.3 In order to proceed with data analysis, it is critical that survey data is weighted

to take into account non-response bias and grossed up to reflect the total number of households. Weighting for each survey area was based on:

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tenure the proportion of affordable (social/affordable and intermediate tenure) and open market dwellings based on 2011 Census data;

age of household based on the proportions of heads of household aged under 65 and 65 or over living in affordable and open market provision derived from the 2011 Census.

A.4 Ultimately, the survey element of the assessment is sufficiently statistically robust to undertake detailed analysis and underpin core outputs of the study down to the survey areas presented in Table A1. Furthermore, the survey findings are enhanced and corroborated through analysis of secondary data and stakeholder consultation.

List of stakeholders interviewed as part of the Housing Study process

A.5 An online survey was carried out with a range of stakeholders drawn from:

Local Authorities;

County Councils;

Voluntary Agencies; and

Registered Providers.

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Maps showing different output geographies

Map A1.1 Strategic Housing Market Areas and Wards


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Map A1.2 Map of parishes also showing Lake District National Park Parish Clusters



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Technical Appendix B: Policy Review

B.1 The purpose of this Appendix is to set out the national policy agenda of relevance to this Housing Study.

IntroductionB.2 Housing policy in England is managed through the Department for

Communities and Local Government (DCLG), but is managed by the devolved governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. In addition to policies that apply directly to housing matters, there is significant overlap with a number of other policy areas, including planning, welfare, political devolution and the wider economy.

B.3 Under the previous Coalition Government, the five years 2010-2015 saw a radical and sustained programme of reform of welfare, housing and planning policy, set within the context of national austerity and an economic policy of deficit reduction and public spending cuts. These reforms championed localism, decentralisation and economic growth.

B.4 Since the election of a majority Conservative Government in May 2015 further welfare reforms have been accompanied by policies seeking to increase the rate of housebuilding and promoting home ownership as the tenure of choice.

Legislative and policy backgroundB.5 Following the Coalition Agreement of May 2010, the previous Government

passed the Localism Act 2011, with the express intention of devolving power from central government towards local people. The Localism Act sets out a series of measures to seek a substantial and lasting shift of powers including:

new freedoms and flexibilities for local government, including directly elected mayors and empowering cities and other local areas;

new rights and powers for communities and individuals;

reform to make the planning system more democratic and more effective, including the abolition of regional spatial strategies (RSS), the introduction of the ‘Duty to Cooperate’, neighbourhood planning, Community ‘Right to Build’, reforming the community infrastructure levy and reforming the Local Plan process; and

reform to ensure that decisions about housing are taken locally.

B.6 In terms of housing reform, the Localism Act reforms aim to enable more decisions about housing to be made at the local level, making the system fairer and more effective. Local authorities have greater freedom to set their own policies about who can qualify to go on the waiting list in their area. In addition, the Act allows for more flexible tenure arrangements for people entering social housing, with social landlords able to grant tenancies for a fixed length of term rather than lifetime tenancies for all. In respect to homelessness, the Act allows local authorities to meet their homelessness duty by providing private rented

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accommodation, rather than in temporary accommodation until long-term social housing becomes available. The Act also reforms social housing funding, allowing local councils to keep the rent they collect and use it locally to maintain their housing stock. It facilitates a national ‘Home Swap’ scheme to facilitate house moves between social housing tenants. In addition, the Localism Act reforms the regulation of social housing, promoting tenant panels and changing the way complaints are handled.

B.7 The National Housing Strategy for England, Laying the Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England, was published in November 2011 under the Coalition Administration and it currently remains in place. The Strategy acknowledges some of the problems within the housing market and sets out the Government’s policy response, along the following themes:

Increasing supply: more homes, stable growth;

Social and affordable housing reform;

A thriving private rented sector;

A strategy for empty homes;

Quality of housing experience and support; and

Quality, sustainability and design.

B.8 The measures promote home ownership, including a new-build mortgage indemnity scheme to provide up to 95% loan-to-value mortgages guaranteed by Government and a ‘FirstBuy’ 20% equity loan scheme for first-time buyers. There is an emphasis on providing new infrastructure, with the announcement of a ‘Growing Places’ Fund, and the freeing-up of public sector land for development. Community-led planning and design is championed, with financial incentives such as the ‘New Homes Bonus’ to promote increased housebuilding at the local authority level.

B.9 The National Housing Strategy acknowledges the importance of social housing and the need for more affordable housing. However, the Government reaffirm their programme to reform this sector, including “changes to the way people access social housing, the types of tenancies that are provided and the way the homelessness duty is discharged”31. The private rented sector is considered to play “an essential role in the housing market, offering flexibility and choice to people and supporting economic growth and access to jobs”32. The Government sets out an intention to support the growth of the private rented sector through innovation and investment, to meet continuing demand for rental properties.

B.10 The National Housing Strategy reaffirms the Government’s commitment to bringing empty homes back into use, using the New Homes Bonus as an incentive. It also set out the objectives of preventing homelessness, protecting the most vulnerable and providing for older people’s housing needs. It confirms a radical package of welfare reforms, including a reduction in Housing Benefit, changes to the Local Housing Allowance (Housing Benefit in the private sector) and the introduction of ‘Universal Credit’ to replace other means-tested working age benefits and tax credits. Finally, the Housing Strategy addresses

31 Laying the Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England (Nov 2011), page 22 para.1132 Laying the Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England (Nov 2011), page 33 Summary

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environmental concerns, with energy efficiency and reduced carbon emissions being required from both new and existing homes in order to promote sustainability.

B.11 The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published in March 2012. It sets out the Government’s planning policies for England and how these are expected to be applied. The NPPF formed a key part of the Coalition Government’s planning system reforms, simplifying national guidance (previously contained in multiple Planning Policy Statements and Planning Policy Guidance) and reducing the quantity of policy pages. Fundamentally, it must be taken into account in the preparation of local and neighbourhood plans and is a material consideration in planning decisions. The document states that “at the heart of the National Planning Policy Framework is a presumption in favour of sustainable development, which should be seen as a golden thread running through both plan-making and decision-taking.”33

B.12 The NPPF sets out 12 core planning principles to underpin both plan-making and decision-taking. It also establishes 13 aspects to achieving sustainable development, which include delivering a wide choice of high quality homes (#6) and promoting healthy communities (#8). The Framework also introduces new definitions of affordable housing covering social/affordable housing, affordable rented housing and intermediate housing.

B.13 The NPPF is to be read alongside other national planning policies on Waste, Travellers, Planning for Schools Development, Sustainable Drainage Systems, Parking and Starter Homes34. Planning Practice Guidance on a range of more detailed topics has been revised and updated and made available through an online system since March 201435. Planning Practice Guidance document topics include Duty to Cooperate, Housing and Economic Development Needs Assessments, Housing and Economic Land Availability Assessment, Housing - Optional Technical Standards, Local Plans, Neighbourhood Planning, Rural Housing and Starter Homes.

Current and emerging policyB.14 Following the election of a majority Conservative Government in May 2015, the

Government’s Summer Budget 2015 was presented to Parliament by the Chancellor George Osbourne on 8th July 2015. The Budget set out proposed reforms to the welfare system, including a four-year freeze on working-age benefits; a reduction in the household benefit cap; restrictions on Child Tax Credit; and training requirements for those on Universal Credit aged 18 to 21. Alongside these welfare cuts, the Chancellor announced that rents for social housing will be reduced by 1% per year for four years, while tenants on incomes of over £30,000, or £40,000 in London, will be required to pay market rate (or near market rate) rents. A review of ‘lifetime tenancies’ was confirmed, with a view to limiting their use to ensure the best use of social housing stock. Support for home ownership measures was reiterated with measures such as the extension of the Right to Buy to housing association tenants and the introduction of Help to Buy ISAs.

33 National Planning Policy Framework (November 2012), para. 1434 http://planningguidance.communities.gov.uk/35 http://planningguidance.communities.gov.uk/

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B.15 Alongside the Summer Budget the Government published a ‘Productivity Plan’, Fixing the foundations: Creating a more prosperous nation (10th July 2015). This sets out a 15-point plan that the Government will put into action to boost the UK’s productivity growth, centred around two key pillars: encouraging long-term investment and promoting a dynamic economy.

B.16 Of particular relevance to housing are the following points in the plan:

Planning freedoms and more houses to buy: In order to increase the rate of housebuilding and enable more people to own their own home, a number of actions are identified including a zonal system to give automatic planning permission on suitable brownfield sites; speeding up local plans and land release, stronger compulsory purchase powers and devolution of planning powers to the Mayors of London and Manchester, extending the Right to Buy to housing association tenants, delivering 200,000 Starter Homes and restricting tax relief to landlords.

Resurgent cities, a rebalanced economy and a thriving Northern Powerhouse: In order to rebalance the economy, which is skewed towards London and the South East, the Government is committed to building a Northern Powerhouse through £13 billion of investment in transport in the North of England during this Parliament, backing new science, technology and culture projects, devolving significant powers to an elected Mayor for Manchester, taking steps to enable the Midlands Engine for Growth to reach its full potential and working towards devolution deals with the Sheffield City Region, Liverpool City Region and Leeds, West Yorkshire and partner authorities.

B.17 The Chancellor of the Exchequer delivered his Spending Review and Autumn Statement 2015 to Parliament on 25th November 2015. Of relevance to housing are:

An improvement in public finances, so a moderated approach to the reform of Tax Credits/Universal Credit;

A new ‘Help to Buy Shared Ownership’ scheme, removing current restrictions on who can buy shared ownership properties to anyone with a household income of less than £80,000 outside London and £90,000 in London;

‘London Help to Buy’ – a new equity loan scheme giving buyers 40% of the new home value (as opposed to 20% under the Help to Buy scheme);

200,000 ‘Starter Homes’ will be built over the next five years; these are new build homes available at 20% off the market price to first-time buyers under 40, where the discounted price is less than £250,000 outside London and £450,000 in London. £2.3 billion will be given to housebuilders to provide the 20% discount on new homes;

From 1st April 2016 an extra 3% in stamp duty will be levied on people purchasing additional properties such as buy-to-let properties or second homes;

Right to Buy will be extended to housing association tenants during 2016, giving 1.3 million households the chance to become homeowners;

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£400 million for housing associations and the private sector to build more than 8,000 new ‘specialist’ homes for older people and people with disabilities; and

Consulting on reforms to the New Homes Bonus, with a preferred option for savings of at least £800 million which can be used for social care.

B.18 In December 2015, DCLG published a Consultation on proposed changes to national planning policy, which is open for comment until 22nd February 2016. This consultation is seeking views on some specific changes to NPPF in terms of the following:

broadening the definition of affordable housing, to expand the range of low cost housing opportunities for those aspiring to own their new home;

increasing residential density around commuter hubs, to make more efficient use of land in suitable locations;

supporting sustainable new settlements, development on brownfield land and small sites, and delivery of housing allocated in plans; and

supporting the delivery of starter homes.

B.19 In November 2015, DCLG announced a review of the Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL), which has been in use since April 2010 and seeks to provide a faster, fairer, more certain and transparent means of collecting developer contributions to infrastructure than individually-negotiated Section 106 planning obligations.

Emerging legislationB.20 The Conservative Government has introduced several Bills to Parliament that

have direct relevance to housing issues.

B.21 The Housing and Planning Bill 2015-16 has been through its third reading in the House of Commons in January 2016 and will now move to the House of Lords for consideration. The Bill is intended to support the delivery of the Government's commitments as put forward in the Conservative Party manifesto and the productivity plan ‘Fixing the foundations: Creating a more prosperous nation’. Through this Bill, the Government aims to take forward proposals to build more homes that people can afford, give more people the chance to own their own home and ensure housing management is improved. The Bill seeks to achieve this, in part, by implementing reforms to the planning system to simplify and speed up neighbourhood planning and Local Plans. It also sets out the delivery framework for the Government’s flagship ‘Starter Homes’ scheme.

B.22 The Welfare Reform and Work Bill 2015-16 has been through the House of Commons and is currently at Committee stage in the House of Lords. The Bill seeks to make provisions relating to a range of welfare benefits and employment schemes, including the benefit cap, social security and Tax Credits, loans for mortgage interest, social housing rents and apprenticeships.

B.23 The Immigration Bill 2015-16 has been through the House of Commons and is at Committee stage in the House of Lords. The Bill includes provisions relating to private rented accommodation, administered by landlords or their agents. If new tenants in private rented housing are found to be living in the UK illegally

May 2016


then there are requirements for landlords to evict illegal immigrants. Action could also be taken against landlords themselves.

B.24 The Cities and Local Government Devolution Bill 2015-16 started in the House of Lords and has proceeded through to Third Reading stage in the House of Commons. The Commons have returned the Bill to the House of Lords with amendments, which will be considered further. This Bill is central to the Government’s devolution plans for England, facilitating its vision of a ‘Northern Powerhouse’. The Bill makes provision for the election of mayors, providing the legislative framework to devolve power and establish sub-national transport powers.

Overview of housing policy themesB.25 The ‘Housing’ Policy Area of the Department for Communities and Local

Government website states that:

‘The government is helping local councils and developers work with local communities to plan and build better places to live for everyone. This includes building affordable housing, improving the quality of rented housing, helping more people to buy a home, and providing housing support for vulnerable people.’36

B.26 Thus the policy focus for Government can be broken down into four areas:

Building affordable housing;

Improving the quality of rented housing;

Helping more people to buy a home; and

Providing housing support for vulnerable people.

Building affordable housingB.27 In line with successive governments, the current Administration continues to

seek an increase in the rate of housebuilding, setting a target of delivering one million new homes by 2020. Ongoing reform of the planning system and removing complex regulations are intended to speed up delivery. However, the policy focus is increasingly towards home ownership, with a shift from traditional social/affordable housing to Starter Homes and shared ownership.

B.28 Following consultation in December 2014, the previous Government launched a national Starter Homes exception site planning policy in March 2015 through a written ministerial statement “to make it easier for developers to gain planning permission for a new generation of Starter Homes on under-used commercial and industrial land.”37 Sites where these homes are to be delivered are exempt from affordable housing requirements and the CIL.

B.29 In January 2016, the Prime Minister announced38 that the Government will step in and directly commission thousands of new affordable homes, seeking to fast-track housebuilding on publicly-owned land starting with five pilot sites:

36 https://www.gov.uk/government/topics/housing37 https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/housing-and-planning38 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-the-government-will-directly-build-affordable-homes

May 2016

https://www.gov.uk/government/topics/housing


Northstowe, Cambridgeshire;

Daedalus Waterfront, Hampshire;

Old Oak Common, London;

Connaught Barracks, Kent; and

Lower Graylingwell, Chichester.

B.30 A range of financial incentives to encourage new housing development have been implemented. Since New Year 2016, a £1.2 billion Starter Homes Fund has been announced39, designed to prepare brownfield sites for at least 30,000 homes, along with £6.3 million of Housing Zones funding40 for the 20 Housing Zones designated in March 2015. Together with eight further potential Zones these areas are considered to have the potential to deliver up to 45,000 new homes.

B.31 Other projects to help finance housing development include:

Get Britain Building programme,

Builders Finance Fund,

New Homes Bonus,

Build to Rent Fund,

Community Right to Build.

B.32 To increase the supply of affordable rented homes the previous Government introduced the affordable rent model41, aimed at giving providers greater flexibility on rents and use of assets, whilst at the same time providing affordable housing for people in need. In July 2014 the Homes and Communities Agency announced the Affordable Homes Programme for 2015 to 2018, which aims to invest £1.7 billion in new affordable housing to deliver 165,000 new homes by March 2018.

B.33 In addition to the affordable rent model, the Affordable Homes Guarantee scheme was launched in 2013 to support the building of new affordable homes. The scheme offers a guarantee to providers on debt that they raise to deliver additional new build affordable homes. The guarantee aims to help reduce the borrowing costs of providers thus enabling them to provide more homes. As part of the 2013 budget, £450 million was announced to support the delivery of up to 30,000 affordable homes in this way.

Improving the quality of rented housingB.34 The Government have implemented a number of actions to improve the quality

and quantity of properties for rent.

Social/affordable housing

B.35 Since 2010 a series of social housing reforms have been introduced including:

39 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-the-government-will-directly-build-affordable-homes40 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/tens-of-thousands-of-homes-supported-by-housing-zone-funding41 Allows Registered Providers to charge no more than 80% of local market rent for affordable housing.

May 2016


Allowing local flexibility on waiting lists (allocations) and tenancy arrangements;

Helping social landlords stop tenant fraud and anti-social behaviour;

Changing the housing revenue account subsidy system to a locally-controlled system where local authorities are responsible for their housing services;

Funding local authorities to refurbish their housing stock;

Introduction of a national home swap scheme for social housing tenants;

Supporting tenants to play a bigger role in managing their accommodation through the tenant empowerment programme; and

Allowing local authorities to discharge their homelessness duty in the private rented sector.

B.36 Alongside social housing reform sit reforms to the welfare system, which, with changes to benefit, eligibility and entitlement, impact significantly on housing supply and demand. There have been a number of policy changes with implications for social/affordable accommodation since the General Election 2015:

B.37 The Housing and Planning Bill includes an amendment which will limit new secure tenancies (for new council tenants) to between two and five years;

B.38 The ‘Pay to Stay’ scheme involves tenants being required to pay market rents once their income exceeds £30,000, or £40,000 in London. However, at the end of 2015 the Government announced that this would be voluntary for housing associations, leading to questions regarding equality between council and housing association tenants;

B.39 The Summer Budget 2015 announced a rent cut of 1% per year for social renters, for four years from April 2016. This has significant implications for social landlord finance;

B.40 In October 2015, English housing associations were reclassified by ONS as being part of the public sector, adding £60 billion of debt to the national balance sheet. The consequent economic and political implications have led to the Government pledging to repeal the powers in the Housing and Regeneration Act 2008 which caused the reclassification.

Private rented housing

B.41 The private rented sector has grown significantly in recent years and the Government sees it as playing a vital role in meeting housing needs and supporting economic growth. Measures to promote the private rented sector include:

The Build to Rent Fund, providing equity finance for purpose-built private rented housing, alongside a £10 billion debt guarantee scheme to support the provision of these homes;

Proposals to ensure tenants receive proper protection from their landlords, including a new model tenancy agreement;

May 2016


£4.1 million funding allocated to 23 local authority areas to tackle rogue landlords and £2.6 million to tackle ‘beds in sheds’; and

The Government has also set up a Private Rented Sector Taskforce to improve the quality and choice of rented housing available to tenants nationally. The Taskforce is made up of developers, investors, and housing management bodies.

Helping more people to buy a homeB.42 The primacy of home ownership remains central to the Government’s housing

policy approach. A number of measures promote homeownership42, including:

Help to Buy, which includes several current products43:

- Help to Buy ISA – since Autumn 2015 first time buyers can save money towards a new home deposit and the Government will boost the value of their savings by 25%. The minimum bonus is £400 and the maximum is £3,000, meaning individual savers need to save between £1,600 and £12,000 to be eligible. The bonus is available on homes worth up to £250,000, or £450,000 in London.

- Help to Buy Equity Loan, where the Government lends up to 20% of the value of a new-build home so buyers only need a 5% cash deposit.

- Help to Buy Mortgage Guarantee, enabling lenders to offer more high-loan-to-value mortgages (80% to 95%).

- Shared Ownership, where purchasers can buy between 25% and 75% of their home and pay rent on the remaining share. From April 2016, Help to Buy Shared Ownership will lift the existing limits so that anyone with a household income of less than £80,000, or £90,000 in London can buy a shared ownership home, with only military personnel being given priority.

Starter Homes, which will soon be available to first-time buyers aged under 40 years old. New-build homes will be offered for sale with a 20% discount to eligible households. The maximum cost of a home will be £250,000, or £450,000 inside London. The cost for the developer of providing the 20% discount is to be met in lieu of delivering affordable housing on these sites.

Discounted Sales, where councils and housing associations build new homes for sale, some may be sold at a 25-50% discount. There are a number of criteria, including some set locally by the relevant council and housing associations who run the scheme. Buyers must usually have a local connection to the area.

Right to Buy, where council tenants with at least five years’ tenancy might be eligible to buy their homes. Maximum discounts have been increased to £77,000, or £102,700 within London. In the case of secure council tenants living in their home when it was transferred to a housing association or similar there is also a ‘Preserved’ Right to Buy. A smaller discount has also been available under the Right to Acquire.

42 https://www.ownyourhome.gov.uk/43 https://www.helptobuy.gov.uk/

May 2016


Voluntary Right to Buy is a pilot scheme amongst a small number of housing associations, trialling the Conservative Government’s flagship policy of extending the Right to Buy to housing associations. The Government plans to extend the Right to Buy beyond those in the pilot scheme but this will have significant funding implications.

Self Build, where households find a plot of land and build or commission the construction of their own home, or work with a group in a Community Self Build project. Self Build was promoted by the Coalition Government, announcing 11 local authorities to become Right to Build ‘vanguards’ in September 2014 and passing the Self-Build and Custom Housebuilding Act 2015. This Act requires councils to maintain a register of those who have expressed an interest in buying serviced plots.

Housing for older and vulnerable peopleB.43 The Care Act 2014 came into effect in April 2015, replacing existing legislation

and positioning housing as a key factor in the overhaul of the care system in England. The Act encourages providers to establish and develop services that help drive change, services which:

Promote people’s independence, connections and wellbeing;

Prevent or postpone the need for care and support;

Put people in control, ensuring that services respond to what people need;

Give carers a right to assessment for support; and

Promote the integration of health and social care.

B.44 The NHS Five Year Forward Review (October 2014) recognises the role that housing can play in promoting wellbeing and in particular keeping older people independent and healthy. This provides evidence of the strong and growing links between housing, health and social care.

B.45 Schemes to support older and vulnerable people in their housing needs include:

Disabled Facilities Grant, funding adaptations to properties to allow people to live in their homes for longer. This is now part of the Better Care Fund, which aims to better integrate health and adult social services. In 2016/17 there is £394 million funding available and in his Autumn Statement 2015 the Chancellor committed to making a further £500 million available by 2019/20;

Care and Support Specialised Housing Fund, to stimulate the market in specialist housing provision. The Government committed an additional £400 million to build 8,000 new specialist homes in the Autumn Statement 2015. The Care and Support Specialised Housing Fund is on track to deliver 4,000 new homes with a further allocation of £155 million expected early in 2016. However wider housing and welfare reforms, including the 1% reduction in social rents, will impact on the financial viability of both existing and proposed supported housing schemes;

FirstStop, an independent, impartial and free service offering advice and information to older people, their families and carers about housing and care options for later life;

May 2016


Home Improvement Agencies, providing help and advice to older and disabled people, housing associations and charities; and

Handyperson services, delivering small home repairs and adaptations.

B.46 Other projects of relevance to housing include the Prime Minister’s Challenge on Dementia. Launched in 2012, the Challenge sought to deliver major improvements in dementia care and research by 2015, including raising awareness of the housing, care and support needs of people living with dementia and their families. In February 2015, the Prime Minister’s Challenge on Dementia 2020 was published, highlighting progress and launching the next phase of the work.

B.47 Also relating to older people’s housing is the World Health Organisation’s Age Friendly Cities programme, which in 2014 saw Manchester recognised as the UK’s first Age Friendly city.

B.48 In terms of safeguarding vulnerable adults, housing has a strong role to play alongside social services, health, the police and other agencies. The Care Act 2014 set out a new safeguarding power and places a duty on local authorities to respond to safeguarding concerns by making enquiries as necessary to decide on whether, and what, action is needed.

B.49 From the April 1st 2013, Health and Wellbeing Boards (including Directors of Public Health) became statutory committees of local authorities. They are responsible for encouraging integrated working on health and wellbeing issues, including development of Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategies, and Joint Strategic Needs Assessments.

B.50 In August 2012 the Government published its Homelessness Strategy, Making every contact count: A joint approach to preventing homelessness. The Strategy focuses on prevention and identifies ten local challenges that need to be addressed by local authorities. These include having a Homelessness Strategy setting out a proactive approach; not placing any young person aged 16 or 17 in Bed and Breakfast accommodation; and not placing any families in Bed and Breakfast accommodation, except in an emergency and for no longer than six weeks.

B.51 In order to prevent and tackle homelessness and rough sleeping, a range of Government funding has been provided in recent years, including:

The Homelessness Prevention Funding, providing grants for local homelessness services;

The Homelessness Transition Fund, supporting ‘No Second Night Out’; and

The Crisis Private Rented Sector Access Development Programme to help single homeless people find privately rented accommodation.

B.52 On 17th December 2015 the DCLG announced “a radical new package of measures to help tackle homelessness and ensure that there is a strong safety net in place for the most vulnerable people in society”44. At the same time, the Communities and Local Government Committee announced a parliamentary inquiry into the causes of homelessness and the approaches taken by national and local government to prevent and tackle homelessness. Ministers are also

44 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/radical-package-of-measures-announced-to-tackle-homelessness

May 2016


set to consider the option of imposing a new legal ‘duty to prevent’ on local authorities.

National housing reviewsB.53 Over recent years a number of housing reviews have been undertaken to

assess the housing situation and recommend ways in which it can be addressed.

B.54 In October 2014 the Lyons Housing Review was published. The review was commissioned by the Labour Party and identified that:

Insufficient land is being brought forward for new housing and that communities are not able to take responsibility for the homes required, or are using planning powers reactively; and

The capacity to build more housing has reduced significantly as it has become concentrated in the hands of a small number of volume house builders, whilst the number of smaller builders has reduced.

Overall the report recommended that the delivery of new homes be increased to 200,000 per annum by 2020. It also recommended that capital investment should be made in housing and that housing should be a priority for the new (post-election) Government.

B.55 The Elphicke-House Report (January 2015) reviewed the role of local authorities in increasing housing supply. It recommended that local authorities become housing delivery enablers in their areas, to proactively assess and lead on facilitating new housing development in their areas. To enhance the role of authorities as delivery enablers, the report recommended increased community involvement; clearer housing market assessments; increased housebuilding by reduced bureaucracy and more flexible funding.

May 2016


Technical Appendix C: Housing need calculations

Summary of contents

Stage 1: Current housing need (gross backlog)Step 1.1 Homeless households and those in temporary

accommodationStep 1.2 Overcrowding and concealed householdsStep 1.3 Other groupsStep 1.4 Total current housing need (gross)Stage 2: Future housing need (gross annual estimate)Step 2.1 New household formation (gross per year)Step 2.2 Proportion of new households unable to buy or

rent in the marketStep 2.3 Existing households falling in to needStep 2.4 Total newly-arising housing need (gross per year)Stage 3: Affordable housing supplyStep 3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by households in

needStep 3.2 Surplus stockStep 3.3 Committed supply of new affordable housingStep 3.4 Units to be taken out of managementStep 3.5 Total affordable housing stock availableStep 3.6 Total supply of social re-lets (net)Step 3.7 Annual supply of intermediate affordable housing

available for re-let or resale at sub-market levelsStep 3.8 Annual supply of affordable housingStage 4: Estimate of annual housing needStep 4.1 Total backlog needStep 4.2 Quota to reduce over 5 years (2)Step 4.3 Annual backlog reductionStep 4.4 Newly-arising needStep 4.5 Total annual affordable needStep 4.6 Annual social/affordable capacityStep 4.7 Net Annual Shortfall

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IntroductionC.1 A working definition of housing need is ‘the quantity of housing required for

households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance’. The 2016 Household Survey and secondary data provide a robust range of information to quantify housing need in Allerdale and the extent to which additional affordable housing is required.

C.2 Housing needs analysis and affordable housing modelling has been prepared in accordance with CLG guidance at SHMA and Borough level. In summary, the model reviews in a step-wise process:

Stage 1: Current housing need (gross backlog)

Stage 2: Future housing need

Stage 3: Affordable housing supply

Stage 4: Estimate of annual housing need

C.3 Table C1 summarises the different steps taken in assessing housing need and evidencing the extent to which there is a surplus or shortfall in affordable housing across Allerdale. Please note that in Stage 1, Step 1.4 reports the total number of households in need and avoids double counting as in some cases households have more than one housing need. Table C2 summarises the data by SHMA. A breakdown of data by parish, ward and LDNP parish clusters can be found an excel workbook (Affordable Housing Study additional information) accompanying this report.

May 2016


Table C1 CLG Needs Assessment Summary for AllerdaleStep Stage and Step description Calculation Allerdale Total Stage1: CURRENT NEED

1.1 Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation Annual requirement 184

1.2 Overcrowding and concealed households Current need 5361.3 Other groups Current need 2470

1.4 Total current housing need (gross) Total no. of households with one or more needs 3135

1.4A TOTAL cannot afford open market (buying or renting) Total (38%) 1190

Stage 2: FUTURE NEED

2.1 New household formation (Gross per year)

Based on 1.688% household formation 783

2.2 Number of new households requiring affordable housing 72.98% cannot afford overall 572

2.3 Existing households falling into need Annual requirement 45

2.4 TOTAL newly-arising housing need (gross each year) 2.2 + 2.3 617

Stage 3: AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY

3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need (based on 1.4) 714

3.2 Surplus stock Vacancy rate <2% so no surplus stock assumed 0

3.3 Committed supply of new affordable units Over 5 years 2093.4 Units to be taken out of management None assumed 03.5 Total affordable housing stock available 3.1+3.2+3.3-3.4 9233.6 Annual supply of social re-lets (net) Annual Supply (3yr ave.) 487

3.7Annual supply of intermediate affordable housing available for re-let or resale at sub-market levels

Annual Supply (3yr ave.) 9

3.8 Annual supply of affordable housing 3.6+3.7 496

Stage 4: ESTIMATE OF ANNUAL HOUSING NEED4.1 Total backlog need 1.4A-3.5 267

4.2 Quota to reduce over 5 years (20%) 20%

4.3 Annual backlog reduction Annual requirement 534.4 Newly-arising need 2.4 6174.5 Total annual affordable need 4.3+4.4 6714.6 Annual affordable capacity 3.8 4964.7 NET ANNUAL IMBALANCE (4.5-4.6) NET 175

Source 2016 Household Survey; RP Core Lettings and Sales data

May 2016


Table C2 CLG Needs Assessment by SHMA

May 2016


Stage 1: Current needC.4 A working definition of housing need is ‘the quantity of housing required for

households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance’. The Housing Study Guidance suggests types of housing that should be considered unsuitable, as summarised in Table C3.

Table C3 Summary of current housing need across Allerdale

Category FactorAllerdale

TotalHomeless households or with insecure tenure

N1 Under notice, real threat of notice or lease coming to an end

184

N2 Too expensive, and in receipt of housing benefit or in arrears due to expense

169

Mismatch of housing need and dwellings

N3 Overcrowded according to the 'bedroom standard' model

536

N4 Too difficult to maintain 930N5 Couples, people with children and single adults over 25 sharing a kitchen, bathroom or WC with another household

326

N6 Household containing people with mobility impairment or other special needs living in unsuitable accommodation

896

Dwelling amenities and condition

N7 Lacks a bathroom, kitchen or inside WC and household does not have resource to make fit

272

N8 Subject to major disrepair or unfitness and household does not have resource to make fit

112

Social needs N9 Harassment or threats of harassment from neighbours or others living in the vicinity which cannot be resolved except through a move

225

Total no. households in need (with one or more housing need) 3,135Total Households 46,396% households in need 6.8%Note: A household may have more than one housing need.


Step 1.1 Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation

C.5 CLG Housing Study guidance suggests that information on homeless households and those in priority need who are currently housed in temporary accommodation should be considered in needs modelling. The scale of need from these types of household can be derived from several sources.

May 2016


C.6 Homelessness statistics for 2014/1545 indicate that a total of 98 decisions were made on households declaring themselves as homeless across Allerdale (Table C4). Of these households, 30 were classified as homeless and in priority need. Over the five years 2010/11 to 2014/15, an annual average of 178 decisions were made across Allerdale and an average of 53 households each year were declared as homeless and in priority need.

Table C4 Homeless decisions and acceptances 2010/11 to 2014/15Year Decisions made Accepted as homeless

2010/11 334 1042011/12 220 632012/13 129 412013/14 107 262014/15 98 30Total 888 2645-Year Annual Average 177.6 52.8Source: CLG Homelessness Statistics

C.7 The Household Survey identified a total of 184 households who were either under threat of homelessness or were living in temporary accommodation across Allerdale. This figure has been used in needs assessment modelling.

Step 1.2 Overcrowding and concealed householdsC.8 The extent to which households are overcrowded is measured using the

‘bedroom standard’. This allocates a standard number of bedrooms to each household in accordance with its age/sex/marital status composition. A separate bedroom is allocated to each married couple, any other person aged 21 or over, each pair of adolescents aged 10-20 of the same sex and each pair of children under 10. Any unpaired person aged 10-20 is paired if possible with a child under 10 of the same sex, or, if that is not possible, is given a separate bedroom, as is any unpaired child under 10. This standard is then compared with the actual number of bedrooms (including bedsits) available for the sole use of the household.

C.9 Analysis identifies 536 households who are currently living in overcrowded accommodation or are concealed households and are intending on moving in the next five years.

Step 1.3 Other groupsC.10 Table C3 identified 2,470 households who were in housing need for other

reasons including the property is too expensive, difficult to maintain, household containing people with mobility impairment/special need, lacking amenities, disrepair and harassment. This figure is taken as the five year backlog of need from other groups.

45 CLG Homeless Statistics Table 627: Local Authorities' action under the homelessness provisions of the 1985 and 1996 Housing Acts, by sub-area

May 2016

http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/housing/xls/141476.xls

http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/housing/xls/141476.xls


Step 1.4 Total current housing need summaryC.11 Having established the scale of need in Steps 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3, total current

housing need from existing households across Allerdale before any analysis of the ability of households to afford open market solutions is 3,135.

C.12 The extent to which these households could afford open market prices is then considered. An ‘affordability threshold’ of households is calculated which takes into account household income, equity and savings. The household income component of the affordability threshold is based on 3.5 x gross annual income of the respondent and partner (if applicable).

C.13 The affordability threshold was then tested against lower quartile property prices and the cost of privately renting. Lower quartile prices at Parish level for 2014 and 2015 were derived using Land Registry address-level data (Table C5).

May 2016


Table C5 Lower quartile house prices (£) 2014-15 by Parish

Above Derwent £249,500 Cockermouth £137,000 Loweswater £150,000

Aikton £149,000 Crosscanonby £105,000 Maryport £65,000

Allhallows £69,000 Dean £191,000 Oughterside and Allerby £119,500

Allonby £100,000 Dearham £109,975 Papcastle £180,000

Aspatria £68,000 Dundraw £145,000 Plumbland £120,000

Bassenthwaite £285,000 Embleton £210,000 Seaton £110,000

Blennerhasset and Torpenhow

£125,000 Gilcrux £142,250 Sebergham £218,000

Blindbothel £325,000 Great Clifton £86,000 Setmurthy £115,000

Blindcrake £195,000 Greysouthen £128,500 Silloth-on-

Solway £80,000

Boltons £157,650 Hayton and Mealo £184,000

St John's Castlerigg and Wythburn

£200,000

Borrowdale £197,250 Holme Abbey £70,000 Thursby £136,500

Bothel and Threapland

£100,000 Holme East Waver £68,000 Underskiddaw £317,000

Bowness £90,000 Holme Low £87,000 Westnewton £80,000

Bridekirk £250,000 Holme St Cuthbert £150,000 Westward £148,000

Brigham £142,500 Ireby and Uldale £126,000 Wigton £95,250

Bromfield £150,500 Keswick £191,500 Winscales £110,000

Broughton £106,250 Kirkbampton £167,500 Woodside £180,000

Broughton Moor

£112,000 Kirkbride £105,000 Workington £77,500

Caldbeck £170,000 Little Clifton £105,700 Wythop £410,000

Camerton £115,000 Lorton £210,000 Total £95,500

Source: Land Registry Price Paid 1 Jan 2014 to 31 Dec 2015

C.14 Information on private sector rents was based on lettings reported by Zoopla during 2014 and 2015 (Table C6). The cost of letting a property according to the number of bedrooms required by a household was factored into affordability testing.

May 2016


Table C6 Lower quartile private rents (£) 2014-15 by Parish

Above Derwent £620 Camerton £650 Papcastle £702Aikton £511 Cockermouth £442 Plumbland £399Allhallows £371 Crosscanonby £377 Seaton £494Allonby £451 Dean £524 Sebergham £360Aspatria £377 Dearham £397 Setmurthy £494Bassenthwaite £576 Embleton £750 Silloth-on-Solway £408Bewaldeth and Snittlegarth £598 Gilcrux £498 St John's Castlerigg

and Wythburn £524

Blennerhasset and Torpenhow £550 Great Clifton £394 Thursby £511

Blindbothel £550 Greysouthen £377 Underskiddaw £901

Blindcrake £351 Hayton and Mealo £598 Waverton £498

Boltons £401 Holme Low £451 Westnewton £576Bothel and Threapland £420 Holme St

Cuthbert £494 Westward £399

Bowness £394 Ireby and Uldale £451 Wigton £329Bridekirk £745 Keswick £529 Winscales £550Brigham £425 Kirkbampton £477 Woodside £550Bromfield £399 Kirkbride £429 Workington £390Broughton £425 Loweswater £598 Allerdale £394Broughton Moor £351 Maryport £362

Caldbeck £498 Oughterside and Allerby £433

Source: Zoopla

C.15 Using evidence from the Household Survey, the extent to which households identified in Steps 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 could afford open market prices has been assessed. Overall, 38% or 1,190 existing households in need wanted to move to offset their need and could not afford open market solutions.

Step 2.1 New household formation (gross per year)C.16 Based on a household formation rate of 1.688%, the analysis estimates an

average 783 new households (gross) per annum. This is based on the latest three year average national rate reported in the English Housing Survey over the period 2011/12 to 2013/14.

Step 2.2 New households unable to buy or rent in the open market

C.17 Analysis of lower quartile market prices relative to the income/savings of households who are expected to form in the next three years suggests that 72.98% could not afford lower quartile house prices or private sector rents.

C.18 Therefore, the total number of newly-forming households who could not afford open market prices or rents across Allerdale is calculated to be 572 each year.

May 2016


Step 2.3 Existing households expected to fall into needC.19 An estimate of the number of existing households falling into need each year

has been established by drawing upon the RP lettings data. This suggests that over the three year period 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/1346, an annual average of 45 households moved into the social/affordable sector because they had fallen into housing need and were homeless.

Step 2.4 Total newly arising housing need (gross per year)C.20 Total newly arising need is calculated to be 617 households each year across

Allerdale.

Stage 3: Affordable housing supplyC.21 The CLG model reviews the supply of affordable units, taking into account how

many households in need are already in affordable accommodation, stock surpluses, committed supply of new affordable dwellings and dwellings being taken out of management (for instance pending demolition or being used for decanting).

Step 3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by households in needC.22 This is an important consideration in establishing the net levels of housing need

as the movement of these households within affordable housing will have a nil effect in terms of housing need47.

C.23 A total of 714 households are current occupiers of affordable housing in need. Although the movement of these households within affordable housing will have a nil effect in terms of housing need (i.e. they already live in affordable housing), the types of property they would ‘free up’ if they moved is considered in modelling.

Step 3.2 Surplus stockC.24 A proportion of vacant properties are needed to allow households to move

within housing stock. Across the social/affordable sector, this proportion is generally recognised as being 2%. Stock above this proportion is usually assumed to be surplus stock. Modelling assumes no surplus social/affordable stock across Allerdale.

Step 3.3 Committed supply of new affordable unitsC.25 The Council has provided data on committed supply of new affordable

dwellings. These are either being built, full planning application has been approved or they have reserved matters approval. Overall there are 209

46 Detailed lettings data for subsequent years are not currently available but annual summary data suggests the scale of lettings is similar to this 3 year period47 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Guidance (CLG, August 2007)

May 2016


affordable dwellings which comprise the committed supply of affordable dwellings across Allerdale. In summary there is a committed affordable supply of 3no. 1 bedroom, 105no. 2 bedroom, 97no. 3 bedroom and 4no. 4 bedroom dwellings.

Step 3.4 Units to be taken out of managementC.26 The model assumes there will be no social/affordable units taken out of

management over the next five years.

Step 3.5 Total affordable housing stock availableC.27 It is assumed that there are 923 social (affordable) rented dwellings available

over the five year period arising from households moving within the stock (714) and expected supply of new affordable dwellings (209).

Step 3.6 Annual supply of social re-letsC.28 The CLG model considers the annual supply of social re-lets. Address-level RP

CORE lettings data has been analysed for the three years 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/1348. This information can be used to accurately assess the likely capacity of the social/affordable sector by location, size of property and designation (whether the property is general needs or older person). For the purposes of analysis, it is important to focus on the ability of households requiring affordable housing to access it. Therefore, the annual supply figures derived from CORE lettings data and used in modelling:

Exclude those moving into accommodation from outside Allerdale and households moving within the social/affordable stock; and

Include households who moved from within Allerdale into social renting from another tenure; newly-forming households originating in Allerdale and moving in social renting; and households moving from specialist/supporting housing from within Allerdale into affordable housing.

C.29 Analysis suggests that there is an annual average of 487 social/affordable dwellings let to new tenants i.e. households originating in Allerdale who either moved into social renting from another tenure, were newly-forming households, or who moved from supported/specialist accommodation.

C.30 Modelling therefore assumes an annual capacity of 496 dwellings for new tenants across Allerdale. Table C7 illustrates how the annual capacity figure is broken down by SHMA, designation (general needs and older person) and property size.

Step 3.7 Annual supply of intermediate re-lets/sales C.31 Table C8 presents a summary of the average supply of intermediate tenure

dwellings which have either been sold or relet over the three year period 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13 as recorded in CORE Sales data.

48 Detailed lettings data for subsequent years are not currently available but annual summary data suggests the scale of lettings is similar to this 3 year period

May 2016


Table C7 Annual social/affordable re-lets by SHMA

Designation No. Beds

SHMAAllerdale


and Maryport

Under 65

1 7 1 1 101 1102 18 4 14 166 2013 9 3 11 120 1434 0 0 0 2 25 or more 0 0 0 0 0

65 and over

1 0 1 1 6 92 2 1 4 13 203 0 0 0 1 24 0 0 0 0 05 or more 0 0 0 0 0

Total 36 10 31 410 487Source: RP CORE Lettings data annual average 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Table C8 Intermediate tenure sales/relets by SHMA

Designation No. Beds

SHMAAllerdale


and Maryport

Under 65

1 0 0 0 0 02 1 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 2 24 0 0 0 0 05 or more 0 0 0 0 0

65 and over

1 0 0 0 0 02 4 0 0 1 63 0 0 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 05 or more 0 0 0 0 0

Total 5 1 0 3 9Source: RP CORE Sales data annual average 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Summary of Stage 3C.32 Overall, the model assumes an existing affordable supply of 923 plus an annual

supply of 487 social (affordable) lettings and an annual supply of 9 intermediate tenure lettings/sales.

May 2016


Stage 4: Estimate of annual housing need

OverviewC.33 Analysis has carefully considered how housing need is arising within Allerdale

by identifying existing households in need (and who cannot afford market solutions), newly-forming households in need and existing households likely to fall into need.

C.34 This has been reconciled with the supply of affordable dwellings which considers location, size and designation (i.e. for general needs or older person). Based on the CLG modelling process, analysis suggests that there is an overall annual net imbalance of 175 dwellings.

C.35 For critical stages of the needs assessment model (Step 1.1, Step 1.4, Step 2.4 and Step 3.8), information is broken down by SHMA (and also by ward and Parish), designation (general needs and older) and property size. This goes beyond the requirement of CLG guidance but allows a detailed assessment of the overall housing requirements of households in need and provides clear affordable requirement information. In turn, this can help identify where there are shortfalls and sufficient capacity of affordable housing, and help to shape policy responses.

C.36 Stage 4 brings together the individual components of the needs assessment to establish the total net annual shortfall.

Step 4.1 Total backlog needC.37 Step 4.1 is the total backlog need which is derived from the number of

households in Step 1.4A minus total affordable housing stock available (Step 3.5). The total backlog need is 267.

Steps 4.2 to 4.6C.38 Step 4.2 is a quota to reduce the total backlog need, which is assumed to be

20% each year (which is a standard modelling assumption suggested by the CLG guidance).

C.39 Step 4.3 is the annual backlog reduction based on Step 4.2 (20% or 53 each year).

C.40 Step 4.4 is a summary of newly-arising need from both newly forming households and existing households falling into need (617 each year).

C.41 Step 4.5 is the total annual affordable need based on Steps 4.3 and 4.4 (671 each year rounded).

C.42 Step 4.6 is the annual social/affordable/intermediate tenure capacity based on Step 3.8 (496 each year).

May 2016


Total gross imbalanceC.43 Table C9 summarises the overall annual gross affordable housing requirements

for Allerdale by SHMA, designation (general needs and older person) and property size. This is total affordable need without taking into account the annual supply of affordable housing.

Table C9 Gross annual affordable housing imbalance by SHMA, property size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 (excluding affordable supply)

SHMA



Total net imbalanceC.44 Table C10 summarises the overall annual net affordable housing requirements

for Allerdale by SHMA, designation (general needs and older person) and property size.

Table C10 Net annual affordable housing imbalance by SHMA, property size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 (including affordable supply)

Housing Market Area


TOTAL1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed 4+ Bed 1+ BedCockermouth 10 -25 3 8 3 -2North Lakes 25 26 17 7 14 88Wigton 13 8 -3 15 8 42Workington and Maryport -5 -13 -39 52 53 48Allerdale Total 42 -4 -23 82 78 175

Sources: 2016 Household Survey; RP CORE Lettings and SalesNote numbers may not add up due to rounding

Tenure and dwelling type profile of affordable dwellingsC.45 Affordable housing includes social/affordable, affordable rented and

intermediate tenure dwellings. New affordable development by Registered Providers will be affordable rented (with rents of up to 80% of open market rent) and in order to recommend an appropriate split between social/affordable and

May 2016


intermediate tenure, the stated preferences of households and the relative affordability of intermediate tenure products is now reviewed.

Household preferencesC.46 Households were asked to state tenure preferences. Table C11 summarises

the preferences of both existing households in need and newly forming households by tenure. Overall, this gives a tenure split of around 60% social/affordable rented and 40% intermediate tenure across Allerdale. How this varies by sub-area is shown in Table C12.

Table C11 Affordable tenure preferences

Tenure

Existing households in

need (%)

Newly-forming

households (%) Total (%)

Social/Affordable Rented 71.9 53.6 59.1Intermediate 28.1 46.4 40.9Total 100 100 100Total existing need and annual newly forming 267 617 884


May 2016


Table C12 Tenure preferences by SHMA of existing households in need and newly-forming households requiring affordable housing

TenureExisting

households in need (%)

Newly-forming households (%) Total (%)

CockermouthSocial/Affordable Rented 79.0 34.2 34.2Intermediate 21.0 65.8 65.8Total 100.0 100 100Total existing need and annual newly forming 0 57 57

North LakesSocial/Affordable Rented 59.9 48.2 55.4Intermediate 40.1 51.8 44.6Total 100.0 100 100Total existing need and annual newly forming 140 87 227

WigtonSocial/Affordable Rented 69.0 56.2 60.8Intermediate 31.0 43.8 39.2Total 100 100 100Total existing need and annual newly forming 37 66 103

Workington and MaryportSocial/Affordable Rented 75.7 64.1 67.7Intermediate 24.3 35.9 32.3Total 100 100 100Total existing need and annual newly forming 186 408 594

C.47 An analysis of the ability of existing households in need and newly-forming households to afford intermediate tenure is summarised in Table C13. Analysis suggests that intermediate tenure options remain affordable to households in need and newly-forming households, with 42.9% able to afford a property priced at up to £80,000, 36.5% a property priced at up to £100,000 and 30% a property priced at up to £120,000. Table C14 summarises this data by SHMA.

May 2016


Table C13 Ability of existing households in need and newly-forming households requiring affordable housing to afford intermediate tenure dwellings

Price

% could affordExisting households

in needNewly-forming

households Totalup to £80,000 53.0 23.2 42.9up to £100,000 50.6 9.1 36.5up to £120,000 43.9 2.9 30.0up to £140,000 38.5 2.2 26.2Total existing needand annual newly forming 267 617 884


Table C14 Ability of existing households in need and newly-forming households requiring affordable housing to afford intermediate tenure dwellings by SHMA

Price% can afford

TotalExisting Newly-formingCockermouthup to £80,000 69.8 48.9 48.9up to £100,000 69.8 48.9 48.9Up to £120,000 69.8 44.8 44.8Up to £140,000 60.4 44.8 44.8Total existing need and annual newly forming 0 57 57North Lakesup to £80,000 67.7 35.8 55.4up to £100,000 64.0 35.8 53.2Up to £120,000 56.3 25.7 44.5Up to £140,000 54.2 25.7 43.3Total existing need and annual newly forming 140 87 227

Wigtonup to £80,000 59.7 65.5 63.4up to £100,000 55.1 61.4 59.1Up to £120,000 47.3 45.0 45.9Up to £140,000 41.5 29.8 34.0Total existing need and annual newly forming 37 66.0 103Workingtonup to £80,000 44.7 48.4 47.3up to £100,000 43.0 40.0 40.9Up to £120,000 36.0 24.1 27.8Up to £140,000 30.3 19.1 22.6Total existing need and annual newly forming 186 408.0 594

May 2016


C.48 There is potential scope for an intermediate tenure market in Allerdale. The final proportion of intermediate tenure dwellings to be delivered needs to be reconciled with the economic viability of delivering affordable housing on sites; the appetite of the HCA to fund intermediate tenure dwellings; and the ability of households to secure mortgages.

Dwelling typeC.49 Table C15 considers the range of affordable property types households would

consider, based on the aspirations of existing households in need and newly-forming households requiring affordable accommodation. Analysis of property type preferences suggests a range of dwellings are required, with 61.3% preferring houses, 22.5% bungalow and17.2% flats.

Table C15 Property type preferencesType preferences Existing (%) Newly-forming (%) Total (%)House 37.1 71.7 61.3Flat 13.7 17.3 16.2Bungalow 49.1 11.0 22.5Total 100.0 100.0 100.0Total existing need andannual newly forming 267 617 884

Based on expectations of existing households in need and what newly-formed households have moved to in the past 5 years


C.50 Table C16 considers the range of affordable property types households would consider by SHMA.

May 2016


Table C16 Property type preferences by SHMA

Dwelling type Existing Newly-forming TotalCockermouthHouse 74.3 42.4 42.4Flat 0.0 41.3 41.3Bungalow 25.7 16.3 16.3Total 100.0 100.0 100.0Total existing need and annual newly forming 0 57 57North LakesHouse 61.8 61.5 61.7Flat 9.8 35.2 19.5Bungalow 28.5 3.3 18.8Total 100.0 100.0 100.0Total existing need and annual newly forming 140 87.0 227WigtonHouse 58.5 67.3 64.1Flat 0.0 16.6 10.6Bungalow 41.5 16.1 25.2Total 100.0 100.0 100.0Total existing need and annual newly forming 37 66.0 103WorkingtonHouse 14.1 61.5 46.7Flat 17.1 35.2 29.5Bungalow 68.8 3.3 23.8Total 100.0 100.0 100.0Total existing need and annual newly forming 186 408.0 594

May 2016


Technical Appendix D: Monitoring and updatingA framework for updating the housing needs model and assessment of affordable housing requirements

IntroductionD.1 Having invested considerable resources in obtaining an excellent range of

primary and secondary data, it is vital that this information be used to the maximum effect and updated on a regular basis. The purpose of this appendix is to establish a framework for updating the housing needs model and affordable housing requirements. In addition, it recommends the regular monitoring and review of housing market activity and regular reflections on the wider strategic context.

Updating of baseline housing needs and affordable housing requirements

D.2 A baseline assessment of housing need across Allerdale has been derived from the Household Survey. This information should be taken as a baseline from which annual reviews of key aspects of the model proceed. It is recommended that the baseline information has a shelf-life of three to five years (with a recommended refresh of household information after 2018/19 through primary surveying).

D.3 Key elements of the needs assessment model can be readily updated on an annual basis to reflect:

changes in house prices and rental costs;

capacity of the social/affordable sector;

availability of intermediate tenure housing.

Changes in house prices and rental costsD.4 It is recommended that the annual purchase of address-level house prices to

complement the existing dataset continues. This will result in an annual refresh of house price data by survey area and provide an indication of changing lower quartile prices. In turn, these can be applied to Step 1.4 of the needs assessment model which considers the extent to which households in need can afford open market prices. As part of this analysis, updated information on private rented sector rents needs to be secured. Several websites can provide a snapshot of private rents and help inform this element of the update.

D.5 Lower quartile prices and private sector rents should also be compared with the income profile of newly-forming households at Step 2.2 of the needs assessment model.

May 2016


Capacity of the social/affordable sectorD.6 The capacity of the social/affordable sector needs to be reviewed annually

using RP CORE lettings data (Step 3.6). D.7 A dataset has been prepared for RSL CORE data for 2010/11, 2011/12 and

2012/13 as part of this research. This includes some additional variables identifying the characteristics of households (by designation i.e. under 65 or over 65) and previous housing circumstances (from out of area, previously social renter, previously other tenure and from supported/specialist accommodation). The capacity of the social/affordable sector is based on the number of lettings to households from within the Local Authority Borough who were previously living in (non-social/affordable or intermediate) tenure.

Availability of intermediate tenure housingD.8 CORE Sales data can identify the availability of intermediate tenure housing

(Step 3.7). Data has been assembled for 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13.

Annual adjustments to affordable requirementsD.9 Datasets can be provided from which annual reviews of affordable

requirements can proceed. This will point to any adjustment in net requirements by survey area, designation and property size.

Updating of contextual informationD.10 This report has presented a range of contextual information relating to the

economy, demography (including population projections and migration) and dwelling stock. This information should be updated where possible and in particular progression with economic growth and diversification should be carefully monitored.

Reflections on the general strategic context and emerging issuesD.11 As part of its strategic housing function, all LAs need to understand the general

strategic housing market context and respond to emerging issues. Given the dynamic nature of housing markets, the Central and Local Government policy agenda and bidding for resources, any update of housing needs must be positioned within a wider strategic context.

D.12 Ongoing stakeholder consultation and engagement with local communities is also vital to maintain up-to-date intelligence on housing market issues.

Concluding commentsD.13 It is vital that mechanisms are in place to derive robust, credible and defensible

estimates of housing need and affordable requirements across Allerdale. We believe that this study provides a robust evidence base which has the capacity to be updated.

May 2016


D.14 Having established a baseline position on affordable housing and advice on open market provision to reflect aspirations, it is essential that housing market activity is regularly monitored. This is highly relevant given current housing market uncertainty. A range of methods have been suggested to ensure that housing need and affordability modelling is revised on an annual basis. Annual reviews should also take into account the changing strategic context and impact on housing market activity.

May 2016

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