Executive-Legislative Relations in Brazil

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213

revista de ciencia pOLtica / vOLumen 30 / n 2 / 2010 / 213 230

* i hk dv al, Ocvo ao no, Luz albo o so ac o so al fo

xly hlfl o ggo. rg o y obly.

ExEcutivE-LEgisLativE RELationsin BRaziL:

is 2009 thE FiRst YEaRoFthE REstoFouR LivEs?*

Relacin Ejecutivo-Legislativo en Brasil:Es el ao 2009 el primero del resto de nuestras vidas?

lcio renno

University of Brasilia

AbstrAct

i lg h y of 2009 Bzl ol, h l fo o wh wh oll of h y: h fo of cog pool m(mpv) lo o. thogh y l of olfo, mhl t, p of h chb of d, off lo fo h xg l gg h blokg of h lgl g(obo u) by povol mu. th w o, lolly bk by h s co, y h ff h ex Bh of pool m ll, g l o mpv ol-kg . i o o h hoh, h l h of mpv bfo f p t w o, og hy of 2008 2009. ecl vc c, lb ll lyfho, h h fo ffc h excuv Bch u o u wpool m.

Key words: povol u, uol fo, excuv/Lglvlo.

RESUMEN

En su evaluacin de la poltica brasilea en el 2009 este artculo se enfoca en lo que fue el principalsuceso poltico del ao: la reforma de los procedimientos de evaluacin de las medidas provisionales

del Congreso (MPV). Haciendo uso de un particular instrumento de reforma institucional, MichelTemer, presidente de la Cmara de Diputados, ofreci una interpretacin alternativa de la leyexistente en torno al bloqueo de la agenda legislativa (sobrestamento de pauta) usando MedidasProvisionales. La nueva interpretacin, parcialmente apoyada por la Corte Suprema, pudo haberafectado dramticamente el uso por parte del Ejecutivo de Medidas Provisionales, reduciendo sudependencia en MPV como instrumento de toma de decisn poltica. Con el objetivo de probaresta hiptesis, el artculo examina el comportamiento en el uso de MPV antes y despus de lanueva interpretacin del presidente Temer, contrastando los dados de los aos 2008 y 2009. Lasevidencias empricas indican que, aun estando en sus inicios, la reforma s afecta el mpetu delEjecutivo en su uso de Medidas Provisionales.

Palabras clave: Provisionales, reforma institucional, relaciones Ejecutivo y Legislativo.


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introduction

a f gh, 2009 w o fl Bl ol. th w o lo,

o jo l ( l o l o o ), h oo o fogwll, of h ol , p Ll ol kok h l o ll h dl roff wol b h go h2010 l lo. Bl lo g o h ol o,wh, og oh hg, ogo og foll fo us p BkOb, who h Ll h .1 O h ow, b ol oo b jo o of olo h bg Bl lgg obl h oll g, whh wll, l, f h 2010 g.

all of h, how, o bl ff fo 2008, o, fo h , fo o of

Ll o off. i f h h h g oll bl oo o. th h g ol ol og bl ol g wg o h log-lg obl of o ql (n, 2007; sg, 2009). Fho, hoo bl h hogh h rl pl, 1994, h o b hllg: Oh o, h Wok p o b h glol of o-oo g g b fo p coo.H, lo 15 of oo bl, wh ol

ol h l 7 , h bogh o of bl boh oo wll oll, bfo Bl ho. i , h foblofgo of o oo oll oo h hl Bl foh h-lk-bo ol fl h h o ha, eo a. Bl w o of h l o o fl h of h o of h f o oo .

rgg h of 2009 o fll, o ol h roff gow o o h g of w l h of h , olgh Goo of h Fl d, h ol gooh hl b h do

(dem) , og of h pt o, ol lo b hghlgh of2009. How, boh o o ll l o l 2010 wll b o l ho of h gl lo of h . B, h ff o, o b ol w of Bl ol. H, h o o wol o b ol bo2009 of bl, lkl, oo oll o Bl.

How, f o, o, g. th h k 2009 Blw jo ol fo, o l w, whh hl e/Lgl lo Bl fo goo. p l lk h

o g ogh o , b b ll o o b f

1 cog of h , whh o g G20 g al 2009, w ly o. s

h://blog.bcw.co/olcluch/2009/04/h-y--.hl (v al 22, 2010) fo

l.


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executive-LeGisLative reLatiOns in BraziL: is 2009 tHe First year OF tHe rest OF Our Lives?

215

o hl . sll, g ol h oo of ol Bl, l go wll b h fo of h l.

i hll, mh of 2009, lo l f kg off p of

h chb of d, mhl t, Fl d fo h pmdB (poo moo doo Blo) of so plo o l of hgog olo cog oll -l g of dl roff h 2010 lo o hogh l w gf hg h lo o of pool m (mpv) h chb of d.2 rll, pool m -lk lglog of h e Bh Bl, l o w o e O h u s, o b fo g o , b h hb wl l o go h o - b (pow, 1998;

Fgo Log, 1999; ao no tf, 2002; rh, 2002; aono, co mcbb, 2003; ngo, 2004; p et al., 2005, 2008; al so, 2008; pho, 2008; pl, 2009).

pool m h g l g h l Bl b ofh f 2001 fo, whh g h of mpv, b hg h oo ff; wh h b of mpv oh f lo og ool of h lgl g b h eBh (p et al., 2008). a k of h fo w h blokg of h lgl

g b mpv, fog h chb of d o o o fobg h oh lgl ool l h o o h mpv olh.L cog l h of h cool a h h follow, wh o fo b of ll , o jh ooo, h h e Bh w bg h of mpv oollgh Lgl g o ow h bfo h blokg of h g b mpvw .

i 2009 h o h hg ll. thogh l h,

lfo o Qo of O (Questo de Ordem) o b oh Fld, mhl t f h h blokg of h lgl g wol ol o of lw ool O Lw pool o ll, ho o ol b q o o ll h oh of lgl oolcool a, col Lw pool, Lgl d, . of h of mpv h O of h d (Ordem do dia). t fo w, b o l o of cool a 32, whhb l 62 of h coo, o h blokg of h lgl go b mpv. th, i g, q o w of og ol

fo! no wh h w of , b hogh l ol lfo o qo, g h sogh no (Notas Taquigrfricas) of h chb of

2 i h h oy loy by h chb of d o fy pool m mpv

fo m po, pog.


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d, t h gfl ob o hg e/Lgllo Bl. W wll ll h o h w of h 2009 Bl l h of h ol fo h of mpv h o bfo

f wh w wll f o h h t rfo.

1. A one-MAn institutionAl reforM?

th o bo l o o hk h t lo obl fo h o ol fo h o Bl ol 2009. th ol ll , g f o o o k j o h olof h o. t: t ook h o hg h of how cog

l wh mpv 2009, b h w bk b gl oo fobl o hg hol mpv l Bl. th lo, hfo, h l fo jo o hql .

A 1: t A

Boo l , cog w o f wh h l of h 2001 fo ofpool m o: th w oo b ol, of oll . th of h 2001 fo, h l

al 62 of h coo, w o h obl h h e Bhgo hogh mpv without Congress explicitly manifesting itself about them. po oh 2001 fo, h e Bh ol - mpv fl. O mpvw blh h Offl d of h rbl (Dirio Oficial da Unio), he Bh olh h b l g h mpv, g fo of lwl. th mpv ol b f cog j , f oh lw o mpv o co qo . thfo, o , h mpv h h fo of lw h o of g how, ol, cog l.

mo of h fo h b lf hg b h 2001 fo. Wh hgw h bl of h e Bh o mpv fl: coola 32 ohb g mpv, oo bfo h fo hl o o whh mpv ol b fo l who hLgl Bh oog lf lo o h mpv. io oofo, lk h rl pl h bl h Bl oo 1994, w l pool m l .

B, o o fo cog o lf gg h w, ogl

mpv b h e Bh, cool a 32 blh hh Lgl g hol b blok f 45 of h mpv , fogboh ho cog o o o . no oh lgl ool, w bo,ol b o o l h mpv h w o. th blokg of h g wh h cog fo lf who og. i 2008, h lgl g wblok b mpv ol 55% of h dlb so, boh o


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217

o, of h chb of d. th o , h w o bloko h blok o.

i h - w ohb h h w l hg o

h b h 2001 fo. How, h w gf oqof h fo h l o g o h chb of dgg mpv. th o l of h 2001 fo w hblokg of h g b mpv. al, h e Bh ook g ofh h ohl g o of ogl mpv f h fo, oo o h o l bfo , g o ocog g (p et al., 2008).

th fo w ll o b h p of h s, Gbl al

2008, o og o h o. a l mh 2008, so alw q lol g h wh h of mpv b h eBh. i w, h h p Ll, lk ll of h o, mpv bo wh ooll f. aog o h, mpv hol b ol ol o o o ol lw h hol ohwb O Lw pool.3 so al l fo wh hgg of mpv o o h of 2008, wh h o he Bh pool m h, h w, o h g blh b h coo. th w ol h o oo

Bl ho h h Lgl Bh mpv o h e Bh.4i w, o ob, l g o h e Bh h cog w lh wh h llg of mpv. i w lo jo fo ofcog ofo gg mpv b f h 2001 fo.

Fho, 2008 h s co (Supremo Tribunal Federal - STF) h lo bll o h bw h e Lgl Bh oh of mpv. af h d ao of uool 4048 (Ao Direta deInconstitucionalidade - ADI) oo b h po sol do Bl

(psdB) o h stF, h o l b jo o h mpv ol ol b h o llo bg f o of , o o g . th s co o ool mpv 405 h fbg f o of h go. th e Bh ol mpv o fo h bg f. af h sFt lg, h l ompv o llo bg f h gfl. H, h stF 2008 lgo mpv fo h gl flg o o mpv .

3 Gbl: o o o, fo ag so,mh 19, 2008 (col o al 26, 2010).

4 p o so ol o goo Ll mp flo, w by Gbl Go, fo

Folh Ol, nob 19, 2008 (col o al 26, 2010).


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th h f of h o h o fo wh o o, whmhl t k l g.5

A 2: t rmmhl t wo h of h chb of d Fb 2009, bgalo chgl, lo fo so plo, b fo Ll po o tblho (pt).e hogh chgl h l oo wh h ofmpv, h o b h w o of lol fo o ofe/Lgl lo. t, o h oh h, h h go g h f oh p of h chb, mh 17, 2009, o llhg how h e Lgl Bh o ol Bl.

i mh 17h, t o o qo o b Fl d rg Ol(psc/sp) bo h o of h coo gh 6 of al 62 h fo cool a 32. th qo w bo wh oflgl ool hol b ff b h blokg of h Lgl g ob mpv f 45h of og cog. t o h o jrolo pool, whh w h oo of Ol Qo of O, b locool a pool, col Lw pool Lgld pool o ff b h blokg of h lgl g.6 t wo o g h h boh oll wll jl o fo o flblo of h f gh.

th oll jfo w b o h f h cog h o b bl, bof h b of mpv, o l oh of lgl ool lh h (mh) obbl wol b bl o fo o hg lb mpv fo h g of h obbl h . i oh wo, ho fo h hg o of gh 6 of l 62 l: cogh ff o oo lo o f ow g b of hb of mpv b h e Bh. th blokg of h g, h

o fo h Lgl Bh o b h, h fh hog of h e Bh ool. i w g h of ff ht , h ll h o o d Ol, fh gh h ok o l of go o h ooo, b p of hchb of d.

th o jfo fo h o w of jl . t bog o h o lw hol b o bo,og w. th ow of g mpv b h e Bh lf

o h coo gg o of ow. aog o t, h

5 i o h o hghlgh h h b gg h of mpv h b og fo y y

f h 2001 fo o o al o.6 th xlo o h oghl o of so 037.3.53.O of mh 17, 2009, . 214

o 221.


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219

Bl coo l: h ow o lgl blog o h Lgl Bh o h e Bh. Fho, h w o t gg bo w of h coo, g h h ll o of h

gh of l ll lw o hol o b o lfo h gl o of h coo o l gol. Fo t,h o o gol of h Bl 1988 coo o blh o b o h l of lw o of ow.

thfo, o h h Lgl Bh g oo -- h eBh, t ol h ol o of lgl ool hol b blok bmpv: O Lw pool, b h, o , h ol oh lgl h l wh o h pool m lo . H,mpv O Lw pool, h of o o, b hgbl.th o h wh mpv cool a, col Lwpool, Lgl d Lgl rolo. mpv o l wh h b ll lgl h fo bo. Followg t og, hblokg ol l o lglo h ql o pool m. all oh of lglo b o o o, o b f b h pof h chb. th o of gh 6 ol b oo, hfo, lgh of h of lglo h mpv b. Ol O Lw, oo, hgbl wh mpv. H, ol O Lw pool hol b

ff b h blokg of h lgl g b mpv.t ol h hogh og o h h h h wh oll l, h g o f h g of h . so l gwh h o h wol qo h o h s co.t wlo h l h h s co b bogh o fh h .

Wh h oo of f, w wo o o ff g h fl: th lo hk ow fol h Supremo Tribunal Federal.

A 3. t Ama

i h fl , h o ow h l of h h lg ooo cog, h po pol sol (pps), h do (dem) hpo sol do Bl (psdB). togh h o hllgt o of h coo b g Writ of Mandamus (Mandato deSeguranca) o h s co, qg lo of h ool oft o o mpv lgl g blokg. i wll o h o h

o h o h o. th l o h s co oog lo o t o.

O mh 18h, h l of h o h chb qo t o h o. th o g fll wh t , gg hh b h of mpv h h Lgl Bh h lo oo


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oollg ow g. B h g wh h olo oo b t.th h h oo o o h b olo o hobl b ll blok h ho of O Lw pool, o lbo

b Fl d, of bg b h chb of d.7

i o, hooo l o o o oo h o of hcoo oo b t, g h h oh h cooh q h fo h blokg of h Lgl g h t goh . Fo , t o oll g h oof g o b h p h o of pl o f 30, boh lg o h blokg of h g, of lglo . Fll,h l of h ooo g h h blokg of h lgl g o ool fo h o h hol o b h w o

fo. thfo, h oo o qo t o w boh of b wll ol .

O mh 27h, h s co, hogh J clo mllo o o hs m of h ooo l, o t o.8 Jmllo g h t jfo w jfbl boh oll wll lglgo. J mllo h t o h o ofow h Fl coo of 1988. Fho, J mllo h h e Bh h ol h coo

b lg mpv o o o of ol-kg Bl. t o, J mllo w, hfo, o bl hloh bw h e Lgl Bh g hhgo of h fo ffg h lgl g. J mllo ll h go: t o og h Lgl Bhool o ow g h e Bh o o gohogh pool m.

af J mllo , h o o og h s co,

wh l o o kg l. Fll, db 16, 2009, Jc L a roh, k o w h o. th o ow wgfo h oo o o fl o, whh h o .9

th s co, j lk 2008, wh h of mpv fobg lloo, g gl g wh cogol lh h e Bh h b h of mpv , h w, h oollh lgl g of cog. cll, hogh t o l k ol ho of g mpv og h chb of d, h o hol o, boh cog h J Bh.

7 Fo h jfo of h ooo l, mo sg (ms 27931).8 Fo h fll o m cl mo sg 27.931-1.9 a of ow, al 2010, h s co h o flz h og of h sy m.


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th qo h obol o o : h h oo w o h o l g of ol b cog h Jgg h gg of mpv ff h g of h b h

e Bh?

2. the eMpiricAl effects of the teMer reforM

alb ll wg fo fl o of h s co, h bkg of J mllo hgh t o of h coo gg pool m.th qo ow , h h o of h lw fl h of mpv how he Bh oh h lgl o h chb of d? th ,w h o h b of mpv 2009, f h o-ll t rfo?H h e Bh h o of O Lw pool, of mpv ogo of h fo h l cog?

d blow, og fo boh h chb of d p of h rblwb l o g fo ob h h t rfo h h ofmpv Bl. th h holg o l of h e/Lgllo Bl, h b ooo of h gog olo cog, wll oo oo h o.

H, o o ol h of h fo, w f o h hw o gf hg h oo oll o bw 2008 2009 Bl h ol of ff e/Lgl lo. W h o o o ff h w hg h of mpv O Lw pool b h eBh. th , hfo l o ol h ol ff of h trfo o pool m g Bl.

tbl 1 h ooo of h chb of d b oll . tholo obo: h gf ff bw 2008 2009.

th ooo of h b o hg bw 2008 2009 h, wh hbo of b oo g bl o b of h olo. 10H, obl o g h h loh bw lglbh, g h lk of gf hg h gog olo, o hg h wo .

Fho, w g bfo, oo ol oo Bl oog o bl 2009, of h ol fl hff o h go. Fg 1 flo ll, b

h i po o coo of Fo Glo vg (ipc-FGv), whh fh h bl oo bl Bl h h.

10 Fo foo o h h hy o h oo h b, h wb:

h://www..go.b/fo_ho/gl_/Ll2/x_hl_/.


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tbl 1: nb of s b poll p h chb of d:Bl 2008-2009

p

nb of

s 2008

nb of

s 2009

Bloo mpvdB, ptc 92 92

pt 80 79

psdB 59 58

dem 56 56

Bloo psB, pcoB, mpvn, prB 49 49

pr 41 41

pp 41 41

pdt 25 23

ptB 19 22

psc 16

pps 13 15

pv 14 14

psOL 3

pHs 3

ptoB 1

Oh 24

tol 513 513

so: Fo 2008, a mlo (2009). Fo 2009, wb of h c o do: h://www2..go.b/o/l--b (col o al 23, 2010). tbl

o b h ho.

Fg 2 h o l wg Bl, b o r, ogfo flo h nol po o coo (inpc) of hio Blo Gogf e (iBGe). i l h h w lg fo Bl wok h ol of .

Fg 3 o lo ll h ool goof rf, slo, Blo Hoo, ro Jo, so plo poo alg. ag,

h lgh of lo, b k bl gbw 7% 9%.

i b , oo, h h o o-oo o, b b h bo, o of og ol oo oo, oq of Ll o ffo o b h of h ol


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Fg 1: iflo: Bl, 2008-2009

so: i: www..go.b (col o al 26, 2010). Gh o b hho.

Fg 2: rl Wg r (r$): Bl, 2008-2009


2008.0

1

2008.0

2

2008.0

3

2008.0

4

2008.0

5

2008.0

6

2008.0

7

2008.0

8

2008.0

9

2008.1

0

2008.1

1

2008.1

2

2009.0

1

2009.0

2

2009.0

3

2009.0

4

2009.0

5

2009.0

6

2009.0

7

2009.0

8

2009.0

9

2009.1

0

2009.1

1

2009.1

2

2008.0

1

2008.0

2

2008.0

3

2008.0

4

2008.0

5

2008.0

6

2008.0

7

2008.0

8

2008.0

9

2008.1

0

2008.1

1

2008.1

2

2009.0

1

2009.0

2

2009.0

3

2009.0

4

2009.0

5

2009.0

6

2009.0

7

2009.0

8

2009.0

9

2009.1

0

2009.1

1

2009.1

2

9.9

7.9

5.9

3.9

1.9

0.1

500

480

460

440

420

400

380


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fl Bl. y, Bl h hgh ok of ol wh h h oo w bl, b o o w lk o h of oo bl og fo bo. so ofh o w ghfll l g pool m, gh g g . Oll, hogh mpv h go ogg -ll fl o ol. Fo , bw 2008

2009 h go mpv h hg h , g b h oo o o l of bfg fll h -owBo nol dolo eoo sol Bndes o h olo o h olo low . H, w k,hogh l ol-kg h, lg mpv o h ff ofh ol oo Bl.

a oq, , of h o oo oo l bo, lo ofp Ll ol h, h ol h h o ll 2009,

b Fg 4. Ll ow fo h ol l of gog ho,b o ghfow o, o log wh ol of h go ooo lk l fo ho bw o ol, whho o wll wh h Bl o.

Fg 3: ulo Ll: Bl, 2008-2009


2008.0

1

2008.0

2

2008.0

3

2008.0

4

2008.0

5

2008.0

6

2008.0

7

2008.0

8

2008.0

9

2008.1

0

2008.1

1

2008.1

2

2009.0

1

2009.0

2

2009.0

3

2009.0

4

2009.0

5

2009.0

6

2009.0

7

2009.0

8

2009.0

9

2009.1

0

2009.1

1

2009.1

2

10

98

7

6

5

4

3

21

0


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thfo, h o l hg bw 2008 2009 h oll oo g, g f o o ol h of h olfo blh l b d mhl t bk b h sco. if ll, h hg h o , ll gg h oo h ol h lw o l ol hogh oh of lglg (p et al., 2005). thfo, w lo h g h

hoh of h .Fg 5 blow h o of mpv oh 2008 2009.vl o of h fg h h ll of o bfo h trfo w l hgh h f h h w lgh h of mpv f mh. th , how, db of 2009,whh k h g of mpv. H, h o o of hg h of mpv.

W h hoh h h t rfo hg h of l o mpvb f fog l ff og h o bfo hfo, J 2008 o Fb 2009 wh f h fo, l db of 2009.tbl 2 h l, whh h h w h of mpv 2009, f h t rfo mh.

Fg 4: p Ll pol: Bl, 2008-2009

so: dFolh. i hk toh pow fo ollg og h gol hg. Gh o b h ho.

Jury-08

Februry-08

mrch-08

april-08

my-08

Jue-08

July-08

augut-08

septeber-08

October-08

noveber-08

deceber-08

Jury-09

Februry-09

mrch-09

april-09

my-09

Jue-09

July-09

augut-09

septeber-09

October-09

noveber-09

deceber-09

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


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tbl 2: t-t of dff m og h b of pool m:Bl, 2008-2009

Go Obo m s. e. s. d.

Bfo h rfo 14 3.142857 0.5226427 1.95555

af h rfo 10 2.1 0.6904105 2.18327

cob 24 2.708333 0.4234056 2.074256

dff 1.042857 0.8495115

souc: pcy of h rublc wb, h://www.llo.gov.b/ccvl_03/mpv/Qo/_Qo%20Gl.h#oo (ol o al 15, 2010). cogof mpv oh bl o b ho. tbl o b h ho.

th bo h h w ff g h o h of mpvog bfo f h fo, g h l o 2008 2009. thff ll gf h .11 ll o-l . th hh l of 1.22 wh 22 g of fo.

G h h bl o o of mpv, tbl 3 l of poorgo o hk h lbl of h fg bo. i ol 1, h t rfo ll gf h .12 wh h o l, o oh ll ll of l gf. Wh wo oh h ol,

Fg 5: pool m: Bl, 2008-2009

so: p of h rbl wb, h://www.llo.go.b/l_03/mpv/Qo/_Qo%20Gl.h#oo (ol o al 15, 2010). cog of mpv oh o b h ho. Gh o b h ho.

Jury-08

Februry-08

mrch-08

april-08

my-08

Jue-08

July-08

augut-08

septeber-08

October-08

noveber-08

deceber-08

Jury-09

Februry-09

mrch-09

april-09

my-09

Jue-09

July-09

augut-09

septeber-09

October-09

noveber-09

deceber-09

9

87

6

5

4

3

2

1

0


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227

hg o mpv h h (m 2008 db 2009) l foh l, h of h t fo lg ll gf h.05 ll, whh b ol 2. mol 3 fll f h t rfo fh

fo h s co 2008 lg h h of mpv ool ollo bg f hogh o q. i h ol, olmpv h o o l o q o bfo f hfo. th bl g h t rfo ll gf o h 0.116ll, og bl l gf. i ol 4 h olg oh o h oo bfo f h fo ol bw oglmpv who q. th l fh of h h w gf f h t fo oo o h o l bfo.

tbl 3: poo coff fo pool m, Bl 2008-2009

vbl

poolm

epo

poolm

noOl

poolmno crq

poolm

no Ol/c

mol 1 mol 2 mol 3 mol 4t rfo 0.40 0.65** 0.58 0.83***

(0.27) (0.32) (0.37) (0.27)

co 1.15*** 1.02*** 1.05*** 0.93***(0.15) (0.17) (0.17) (0.16)

Obo 24 22 24 22

rob o h*** < 0.01, ** < 0.05, * < 0.1

Fll, w h hg h e Bh g of oog O

Lw f h fo? d h o h e Bh l o mpvl O Lw pool? Fg 6 o o llbl bfo f h t rfo.

tbl 4 h l of oh ff fog o h fqof of O Lw pool (pL) b h e Bh. th o lo b ff bw bfo f h fo.

H, h e Bh h o o pool m, h of g O Lw pool. Oll, h l

o o l pL f h t rfo, h bfo. How, olo o o h h b of O Lw pool oh og he Bh h b of pool boh o.thfo, h e Bh o o o ll o pool m, o gh hk, g h of h t rfo, b lo oh of lglg o g.


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tbl 4: t-t of dff m og h b of O Lw poolb h e Bh 2008 2009

Go Obo m s. e. s. d.

Bfo h rfo 14 5.571429 1.567928 5.86665

af h rfo 10 5 1.468181 4.642796

cob 24 5.333333 1.079564 5.288763

dff 0.5714286 2.235653so: chb of d wb, h://www..go.b//lg/fl.(ol o al 23, 2010). cog of mpv oh bl o b ho. tblo b h ho.

conclusion

th of 2009 Bl w l bog: h oll oo g

bl, who jo o h fog of h oll. Oll, h w o l hg h gog olo, wh h of l bo of ow bw go ooo h Lgl e Bh wh o o 2007 2008 (aono colho, 2008; a mlo, 2009). Fho, h oo oo fo wll Ll ol o.

Fg 6: O Lw pool of h e Bh: Bl, 2008-2009.

so: chb of d wb, h://www..go.b//lg/fl.(ol o al 23, 2010). Gh o b h ho.

Jury-08

Februry-08

mrch-08

april-08

my-08

Jue-08

July-08

augut-08

septeber-08

October-08

noveber-08

deceber-08

Jury-09

Februry-09

mrch-09

april-09

my-09

Jue-09

July-09

augut-09

septeber-09

October-09

noveber-09

deceber-09

25

20

15

10

5

0


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229

th ql, how, w b gf ol foh o l 2009. a oo Fl d mhl t ook off hp of h chb of d, o of h f w o hllg h

g o of h lo o of pool m b cog.th t rfo, i f o h, w o o w, whojo b o h chb of d. i w h l of lo of h coo off b t, h h l l pof h chb of d, l ll bk b h s co. th trfo h o of lgl g blokg b pool m ogl gl o h e Bh h cog w owhl b h of mpv. th s co, hogh h oog of o of J,ff h blf h cog o log ooll ow g h h

e Bh w g lglg ow fo h Lgl Bh.d h w o ff h of mpv 2009 hg -lgllo Bl? rl ll l, b o h h w o h of mpv 2009. a o o h o dbof 2009, wh h e Bh gh w pool m, hgh ll o o 2009. th lgl g h lo b blok o ho 2009, 2008.

i of ll fh , g h h s co ll o

fl o o , h fo h w l h of Blol 2009. pobbl h wll g 2010 g, wh h s coogh o h fl o o h .

Fho, h lgl g h b blok fo bo 55% of ll lbo 2009. H, h of e Bh ool o h Lgl g o oll ol b h t rfo. i o ow o go bk fh , l mpv ll f h 2001 fo, o o how h of 2008 2009 h fl e/Lgl lo Bl

o o gl how h of h h h sco lg ohbg o q hogh mpv, h of hmpv o h e Bh b so al h t o of hlw h fl h of mpv. cll, h o b gf ob h Lgl Bh, bk b h s co, g h g of mpvb h e Bh Bl 2008. pl h mpvg h fll, b log o o o o fl olo oh qo.

ag, fo ol w o h qo, o go bk fh

o g f 2008 w o l o b h o h o bo o h t rfo. B, h k fo f wok. Wh lf qof h l bo h 2009 k b og o fo h LglBh gg h of pool m b h e Bh, wh ollog-lg ff Bl ol.


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