Executive | 150127 | Hoe lang blijft Nederland onafhankelijk van Russisch Gas? | Presentatie | René Peters

Overview

Role of gas in the energy mix

Gas supply in NL: past, present and future

Import dependency in a BAU scenario

What influences the transition point?

The role of innovation

How will future developments influence the transition point?

Summary and conclusions

10 januari 2011M BoumanTNO Nieuwe huisstijl

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World Primary Energy Demand developmentthe role of gas in the energy mix is increasing

From: IEA special report on gas 2011

‘World energy demand’ expectation 2035[source IEA, 2011]


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Role of natural gas increases in all scenarios

SER Energie akkoord:14% renewable in 202016% renewable in 2023 4.5%

10 januari 2011Slide 5

M BoumanTNO Nieuwe huisstijl

10%

Change in Natural Gas Production by regionNorth sea region is going into decline

From: IEA special report on gas 2011

UK and NL


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Groningen gasveld

eerste gas: 1948(Coevorden)

1959 : Ontdekking Groningen (Slochteren) gasveld


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1970


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1980


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1990


12

2000


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Current status w.r.t. Natural Gas in NL

437 gasfields discovered (on- & offshore)Of which :

• 239 in production• 4 converted to gas storage• 57 depleted• 41 planned for production • 71 “stranded fields”

N.B. infrastructure (platforms and pipelines) are at maximum and will decline from now on!

Huidige reserves: 1044 BCM (25 jr)Waarvan ~800 BCM in Groningen

Gas Production in the Netherlands


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From TNO: www.nlog.nl

Gas earnings in the Netherlands


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From TNO: www.nlog.nl


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

2052

2054

2056

2058

2060

Year

Vol

ume

(to b

e) p

rodu

ced

(bc

m)

Offshore infrastructure Simulatie voor 2008-2034

Aanname : productie uit bestaandevelden, nu niet producerende veldenen uit exploratiepotentieel

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Dutch gas reserves are depleting the next decade(Future) Gas production profile NL (forecast 2011)

Groningen field

Small fields

Gas demand in NL


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Transition point: Export > 2023 < Import

Recent developments that impact the transition poin t

Groningen field

Small fields

Gas demand in NL


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Export > > > > 2023 < Import

1. Declining demand2. Groningen production cap3. Innovation in small fields4. Exploration potential

Expected decline in gas demand in NL


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� ECN estimates a reduction from 40 BCM in 2015 to 31 BCM in 2030� Households will reduce gas demand as a result of isolation, use of city

heating. � The use of gas for industry has been reduced because of the recession

and high gas prices (chemical industry, process industry)� Power generation has switched from gas to coal (cheap coal and CO2)

� A lower demand will delay the transition point towards gas import

Source: ECN Nationale Energieverkenning

Impact of changing production profile Groningen

Groningen production

2013: ~53 BCM

2014: capped at 42.5 BCM



2017 and beyond to be decided

Due to production cap, future production can be kept at plateau

before natural decline will set in for a longer period

Current reserve Groningen ~800 BCM (>30 years production)


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Dutch gas reserves are depleting the next decade(Future) Gas production profile NL (forecast 2014)

Groningen field

Small fields

Gas demand in NL

Export > 2026 (+2 jr) < ImportFrom TNO: www.nlog.nl

Groningen looses its capacity as a swing producer for NL and Europe

‘Fighting the decline’

Mogelijkheden:

� Verlengen van de ‘tail-end-production’

� In productie brengen van ‘moeilijke velden’

� ‘Near field’ exploratie van hele marginale voorkomens

� ‘Echte’ exploratie, ev. inclusief unconventionals

(schaliegas en steenkoolgas)

Vergen alle aandacht en ondersteuning, o.a. door R&D


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nieuwe technologie nodig

geologisch onderzoeknodig & R&D

Typical End -of-field -life challenges

Liquid loading

Salt precipitation

Challenging / unstable operations

Maximize recovery

Extend facility life

Facility integrity & safety

Abandonment

Legal limitations (SSSV / foam offshore)

M BoumanTNO Nieuwe huisstijl

2310 januari 2011

Application of innovation for maximising recovery of small fields

Maximising recovery from mature fields

Foam injection to delay liquid loading

Deliquefication with gaslift, velocity strings, plunger lift

Wellhead compression

Delaying salt precipitation

Enhanced gas recovery (N2, CO2 injection)

Exploration of new fields

Conventional, shallow gas, in underexplored areas

Unconventional, tight gas, shale gas

Developing stranded fields

Remote operation

Subsea tie backs


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Foamers for gas well deliquification

Participants

ConceptFoam will delay liquid loading of a well and extend The field life and ultimate recovery of a gas field.

Deliverables• Improved foamer selection method • Scaling relations for prediction of field behavour• First principle flow model for foams

Values of deliverables projects• Improved foamer selection• Improved prediction of quantitative effect of foamers• Enabling comparison with other mitigation strategies

Innovation in small fields to realise 30-30 target

30/30target


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Gas demand

Exploratie potentieel in NL

Conventioneel gas

Onshore

Offshore

Shallow gas pockets (hazard or opportunity?)

Tight gas (nu vaak stranded fields)

Shale gas (nog zeer onzeker vanwege ontbreken exploratieboringen)


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Analysis of prospective areas in NL


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Exploratie potentieel land (cut-off 0.5 BCM)

Exploratie potentieel NLLand 143 BCMOffshore 126 BCM

MSV = mean success volumeSource: www.nlog.nl

Winning van schaliegas: Nederlandse geologische condities

Gas houdende lagen in

Jura (Posidonia) en

Carboon (Geverik)

Huidige schattingen TRR

varieren van 50 – 500 BCM

Kraakbaarheid van het

gesteente nog grotendeels

onbekend

Exploratieboringen nodig

voor betere schattingen


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Impact of enhanced exploration and implementation of new technologies on small fields


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Source: Focus on Dutch Gas 2014

Conclusions

Current gas reserves in NL are ~1000 BCM, of which 800 of Groningen

In a BAU scenario, NL will be gas import dependent in 2023

The exploration potential for conventional gas is currently 269 BCM

Unconventional sources might add 200 – 500 BCM on the long term

With current production cap on Groningen en decreasing gas demand,

the transition point will already be delayed by around 2-3 years

Innovation can extend the field life by around 10% and reduce OPEX

The transition point can be delayed by around 5 years when new

technologies are implemented on a large scale and investments remain

at a level of around 1 B€ / yr

There is a limited window of opportunity to apply end of field life

technologies in offshore fields

To delay the transition towards gas import, continued focus on

collaborative innovation and cost efficient operation is required.


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Thank you for your time and attention

Contact details

Rene Peters

[email protected]

Phone +31 6 51551566

@renepeters

www.tno.nl/energy


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Executive | 150127 | Hoe lang blijft Nederland onafhankelijk van Russisch Gas? | Presentatie | René Peters