Exchange Rate Policy and Regional Trade Agreements: A Case of Conflicted Interests?

7/27/2019 Exchange Rate Policy and Regional Trade Agreements: A Case of Conflicted Interests?

1/24

O@JG Qmrhgla Ropnr [nrgns

Nxkfolan Zotn Rmcgky ol`Znagmloc Pro`n Oarnnenlts4 OKosn mi Kmlicgktn` Gltnrnsts=

Zgkfor` Rmeirnt ol` YgktmrRmltglns

Lm. 0;9Mktmjnr :2?;

Osgol @nvncmpenlt Jolh Glstgtutn


2/24

Pfn Qmrhgla Ropnr snrgns gs o kmltgluotgml mi tfn imrenrcy loen` @gskussgml Ropnr snrgns8tfn luejnrgla mi tfn popnrs kmltglun` wgtfmut gltnrruptgml mr kfolan. O@JGs wmrhglapopnrs rnicnkt glgtgoc g`nos ml o tmpgk ol` orn pmstn` mlcgln imr `gskussgml. O@JG nlkmuroansrno`nrs tm pmst tfngr kmeenlts ml tfn eogl poan imr nokf wmrhgla popnr (agvnl gl tfnkgtotgml jncmw). [men wmrhgla popnrs eoy `nvncmp gltm mtfnr imres mi pujcgkotgml.

[uaanstn` kgtotgml4

Rmeirnt,E., ol` Rmltglns,Y. :2?;. Nxkfolan Zotn Rmcgky ol` Znagmloc Pro`n Oarnnenlts4O Kosn mi Kmlicgktn` Gltnrnsts= O@JG Qmrhgla Ropnr 0;9. Pmhym4 Osgol @nvncmpenlt JolhGlstgtutn. Ovogcojcn4 fttp4//www.o`jg.mra/wmrhgla-popnr/:2?;/?2/26/>727.nxkfolan.rotn.pmcgky.tro`n.oarnnenlts/

Rcnosn kmltokt tfn outfmrs imr glimreotgml ojmut tfgs popnr.

Neogc4 rgkfor`.pmeirntBo`ncog`n.nù.ou, vpmltglnsBo`jg.mra

Zgkfor` Rmeirnt gs Rrminssmr mi [kfmmc mi Nkmlmegks, ^lgvnrsgty mi O`ncog`n. YgktmrRmltglns gs Znsnorkf Inccmw ot O@JG.

Pfn vgnws nxprnssn` gl tfgs popnr orn tfn vgnws mi tfn outfmr ol` `m lmt lnknssorgcy

rnicnkt tfn vgnws mr pmcgkgns mi O@JG, tfn O@J, gts Jmor` mi @grnktmrs, mr tfn amvnrlenltstfny rnprnsnlt. O@JG `mns lmt auoroltnn tfn okkuroky mi tfn òto glkcu`n` gl tfgs popnrol` okknpts lm rnspmlsgjgcgty imr oly kmlsnqunlkns mi tfngr usn. Pnreglmcmay usn` eoylmt lnknssorgcy jn kmlsgstnlt wgtf O@J miigkgoc tnres.

Osgol @nvncmpenlt Jolh GlstgtutnHosuegaosnhg Jugc`gla 6I

;-:-> Hosuegaosnhg, Kfgymò-huPmhym ?22-9226, Dopol

Pnc4 +6?-;-;>7;->>22Iox4 +6?-;-;>7;->>1?^ZC4 www.o`jg.mraN-eogc4 glimBo`jg.mra

:2?; Osgol @nvncmpenlt Jolh Glstgtutn


3/24

O@JG Qmrhgla Ropnr 0;9 Rmeirnt ol` Rmltglns

Ojstrokt

Pfn rnsucts fgafcgaft tfn kmlicgktgla gltnrnsts mi kmultrgns tm stojgcgzn nxkfolan rotns mr tmhnnp tfn mptgml mi nxkfolan rotn `nprnkgotgml gl mr`nr tm eogltogl kmepntgtgvnlnss mi`menstgk tro`ojcn prm`uknrs. Qgtf `nnpnlgla gltnarotgml gl Nost Osgo, fmwnvnr, tfn `nsgrnimr nxkfolan rotn stojgcgty wgcc nvnltuoccy mutwngaf tfn `nsgrn tm eogltogl o prmtnktgmlgst tmmc.Fmw nxtnlsgvn tfn prnssurns wgcc jn gl Nost Osgo wgcc `npnl` lmt mlcy ml fmw eolykmultrgns snrgmuscy `nsgrn tm jn gl tfn emrn gltnarotn` nkmlmegk orno gl wfgkf Ioktmry Osgompnrotns, jut ocsm ml tfngr glstgtutgmloc ol` pmcgtgkoc rno`glnss tm kmeegt gl sukf skfnens ottfn kmst mi rnlmulkgla ol gepmrtolt pmcgky glstruenlt.

DNC Kcossgigkotgml4 I?;, I?0, I?>, I0:


4/24


Kmltnlts

?. Gltrm`uktgml ................................................................................................................ ;:. Nxkfolan Zotns ol` Pro`n ....................................................................................... 0;. Pro`n, ZPOs, ol` Nxkfolan Zotn Rmcgkgns gl Nost Osgo ............................................ 90. Pfn Pnlsgml jntwnnl @nprnkgotn` mr [tojcn Nxkfolan Zotns4 Kmlicgktgla @menstgkOspgrotgmls gl ol ZPO ......................................................................................................... ?2>. Nepgrgkoc Entfm`mcmay ol` Olocysgs mi Znsucts ....................................................... ??9. Orauenlts imr ol` Oaoglst Gltnrlotgmloc Rmcgky Kmmr`glotgml ................................... ?01. Kmlkcusgml ............................................................................................................... ?1Zninrnlkns ......................................................................................................................... ?7


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;

?. GLPZM@^KPGML

Pfn rncotgmlsfgp jntwnnl nxkfolan rotns ol` tro`n fos cmla jnnl kmltrmvnrsgoc. Pfnigxn` nxkfolan rotns mi tfn prn-?7?0 amc` stolòr` wnrn vgnwn` os nssnltgoc imrniigkgnlt tro`n. Gl tfn pnrgm` mi ?7?7;7, nxkfolan rotn icnxgjgcgty wos pmsgtgvncykmrrncotn` wgtf armwtf ol` tmm rgag` o`fnrnlkn tm tfn amc` stolòr` wos lnaotgvncykmrrncotn` wgtf armwtf (Ngkfnlarnnl ?77:). Fmwnvnr, jnaaor-tfy-lngafjmr pmcgkgns mi`nvocugla gl mr`nr tm rnùkn ulnepcmyenlt gl tfn ?7;2s koen tm jn snnl os o znrm-sue strotnay tfot nxoknrjotn` tfn jrnoh`mwl mi tfn acmjoc nkmlmey.?

[glkn tfn o`vnlt mi anlnrocgzn` icmotgla gl tfn ?712s, lm euctgcotnroc mraolgzotgml fosjnnl rnspmlsgjcn imr tfn acmjoc nxkfolan rotn systne. Pfnrn fovn jnnl rnkurrglakforans mi kmultrgns usgla nxkfolan rotn prmtnktgmlgse mr prmemtgla nxpmrts jy

nxkfolan rotn ul`nrvocuotgml. Ot tfn soen tgen, tfn acmjoc tro`gla systne gsglkrnosglacy kforoktnrgzn` jy prmcginrotgml mi rnagmloc tro`n oarnnenlts (ZPOs) wfgkf,tmantfnr wgtf Qmrc` Pro`n Mraolgsotgml (QPM) kmeegtenlts, cgegt amvnrlenlts ojgcgtytm usn tro`gtgmloc tro`n pmcgky enosurns (QPM :2??), ol` eoy glkrnosn tfnottroktgvnlnss mi usgla tfn nxkfolan rotn os o tro`n pmcgky glstruenlt.

Gl tfn JrnttmlQmm`s nro tfn Gltnrlotgmloc Emlntory Iul` (GEI) wos rnspmlsgjcn imr nlsurgla tfotkmultrgns eogltogln` igxn` nxkfolan rotns ol` tfot oly `nvocuotgml mr rnvocuotgml wosmr`nrcy.

Pfn oge mi tfgs popnr gs tm nxoegln tfn rncotgmlsfgp jntwnnl tfn nxkfolan rotn rnagenol` nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty ol` tro`n oemla kmultrgns gl ol ZPO. :

Pfnsn qunstgmls orn nspnkgoccy rncnvolt tm tfn Osgol tro`gla systne, wfgkf fos jnnlkforoktnrgzn` jy juranmlgla ZPOs sglkn tfn turl mi tfn knltury ol` jy glkrnosglacykmepcnx vocun kfogls josn` ml rnùkn` tro`n kmsts. Oitnr tfn ?77176 krgsgs, snvnrocprmpmsocs imr iglolkgoc rnagmlocgse gl Nost Osgo wnrn icmotn`, jut oktuoc prmarnsstfrmuaf tfn Kfgola Eog Glgtgotgvn, Osgol jml` eorhnt kmmr`glotgml, ol` eokrmnkmlmegkemlgtmrgla fovn eo`n scmw ol` cgegtn` prmarnss. Pfn icmurgsfgla mi jgcotnroc ol`pcurgcotnroc oarnnenlts gl Nost Osgo sglkn :222 fovn jnnl tro`n-`rgvnl, olòssmkgotn` wgtf rnùkgla torgii ol` nspnkgoccy lml-torgii jorrgnrs tm tfn semmtfiulktgmlgla mi rnagmloc vocun kfogls (Rmeirnt :2??). Nxkfolan rotn icuktuotgmls ornglgegkoc tm tfn mpnrotgml mi suppcy kfogls josn` ml cmkotgla nokf gl`gvgùoc snaenlt mi

Nxkfolan rotnpmcgky kol jn o sujstgtutn imr tro`n pmcgky, jnkousn tfn tro`n gepokt mi oly kfolan gltfn nxkfolan rotn gs (rmuafcy) nqugvocnlt tm tfot mi smen kmejglotgml mi kfolans glgepmrt toxns ol` nxpmrt sujsg`gns. Pfn tneptotgml tm usn nxkfolan rotn `nprnkgotgmlos o sujstgtutn imr tro`gtgmloc tro`n enosurns eoy jn arnotnr wgtfgl ol ZPO gi o kmultry

fos portgoccy `gseoltcn` gts tro`n jorrgnrs ol` kollmt rn-nrnkt tfne wgtfgl tfn ZPO. Mltfn mtfnr fol`, nxkfolan rotn pmcgky eoy jn o kmepcnenlt tm o cgjnroc tro`n pmcgky. Giol ZPO gs sgaln` tm iokgcgtotn tro`n ol` prmemtn rnagmloc vocun kfogls, nxkfolan rotnstojgcgty gs kmepcnenltory jnkousn, nvnl gi tfn kmst mi fnàgla oaoglst nxkfolan rotnrgsh gs seocc, nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty stgcc gepmsns ol o``n` tro`n kmst.

?O rnknlt rnvgsgmlgst orauenlt gs tfot igxn` nxkfolan rotns wnrn emrn foreiuc tfol kmepntgtgvn`nvocuotgmls jnkousn amvnrlenlts strgvgla tm eogltogl tfn amc` stolòr` wnrn emrn cghncy tm o`mptprmtnktgmlgst enosurns tfol kmultrgns tfot fo` ojol`mln` tfn amc` stolòr` gl iovmr mi o emrn icnxgjcnnxkfolan rotn. Ngkfnlarnnl ol` Grwgl (:2?2) ol` Grwgl (:2?:) oraun tfot ùrgla tfn ?7;2s nxkfolanrotn pmcgky wos nvnl emrn gepmrtolt tfol ioccgla mutput mr rgsgla ulnepcmyenlt gl `ntnreglgla lotgmlocprmtnktgmlgst enosurns.

:Lml-tro`n-rncotn` pmcgky glknltgvns imr rnspml`gla tm nxkfolan rotn cnvncs ol` vmcotgcgty, survnyn` gl

Qnjnr ol` Qypcmsz (:227), orn lmt o``rnssn` gl tfgs popnr. [nn ocsm Fukfnt-Jmur`ml ol` Hmrglnh(:2??) imr o cgtnroturn rnvgnw ol` iurtfnr nvg`nlkn.


6/24


0

tfn kfogl gl tfn cnost-kmst cmkotgml.; Eoly mjsnrvnrs fovn g`nltgign` tfn `nsgrojgcgty mieogltoglgla jgcotnroc nxkfolan rotn stojgcgty, prninrojcy jy o enols mtfnr tfolanlnrocgzn` pnas tm tfn ^[ `mccor.0

Pfn lnxt snktgml rnvgnws tfn cgtnroturn ml tfn rncotgmlsfgps jntwnnl nxkfolan rotns

ol` tro`n icmws. [nktgml ; sueeorgzns trnl`s ml tro`n, ZPOs, ol` nxkfolan rotnpmcgky kfmgkns gl Nost Osgo. [nktgml 0 `gskussns tfn `gvnranlkn jntwnnl usgla tfnnxkfolan rotn os o prmtnktgmlgst tmmc os mppmsn` tm nxkfolan rotns oktgla os okmepcnenlt tm iokgcgtotgla tro`n. Gl [nktgml > tfn nepgrgkoc rnsucts irme o arovgty em`nctfot nxoeglns tfn rncotgmlsfgp jntwnnl nxkfolan rotns ol` tro`n orn prnsnltn`.[nktgml 9 `gskussns tfn kmepntnlkgns mi tfn GEI ol` QPM, tfn twm euctgcotnrocglstgtutgmls wgtf prgeory rnspmlsgjgcgty imr nxkfolan rotn pmcgkgns ol` gltnrlotgmloc tro`n,kmlkcu`gla tfot tfn cglh jntwnnl nxkfolan rotn ol` tro`n pmcgkgns fos ioccnl gltm o aopsglkn tfn amc` nxkfolan stolòr` nl`n` gl ?71?1;. Pfn igloc snktgml `rowskmlkcusgmls ol` `gskussns pmcgky gepcgkotgmls.

:. NVKFOLAN ZOPN[ OL@ PZO@NPfn em`nrl nkmlmentrgk cgtnroturn ml nxkfolan rotns ol` tro`n òtns irme tfn nl` mitfn amc` nxkfolan systne mi igxn` nxkfolan rotns gl tfn norcy ?712s. Irme tfn ?712sultgc tfn norcy :222s, kmegla mut mi tfn igxn` vnrsus icnxgjcn nxkfolan rotn `njotns, tfnimkus wos ml wfntfnr ol` tm wfot nxtnlt nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty wos foreiuc tm tro`n.[glkn tfn turl mi tfn knltury, ottnltgml fos ocsm turln` tm kmllnktgmls jntwnnlnxkfolan rotn ul`nrvocuotgml mr `nprnkgotgml ol` tro`n.>

Pfnmrntgkoc em`ncs kol prmùkn ngtfnr pmsgtgvn mr lnaotgvn niinkts mi nxkfolan rotnvmcotgcgty ml tro`n `npnl`gla ml ossueptgmls ojmut ncostgkgtgns, ottgtu`ns tmwor`s rgsh,ol` sm imrtf (`n Arouwn ?7668 EkHnlzgn ?7778 Jokkfnto ol` Yol Qglkmmp :222).

Fnàgla kol rnùkn rgsh, jut glvmcvns nxtro kmsts (Kopmrocn ol` @mrmm`gol ?7708Mjstinc` ol` Zmamii ?776). Pfn tfnmrntgkoc cgtnroturn gs rnvgnwn` jy Oujmgl ol` Zuto(:2??).

Pfn nepgrgkoc cgtnroturn ml nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty ol` tfn vmcuen mi tro`n gs ocsmglkmlkcusgvn. Pypgkoc gs tfn GEI (:220) stu`y mi tfn tgen potf mi nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgtyol` tro`n irme ?712 tm :220 tfot imul` o wnoh lnaotgvn rncotgmlsfgp tfot wos lmtrmjust tm kfolans gl spnkgigkotgml8 o krmss-snktgmloc olocysgs usgla o arovgty em`ncimul` o strmlanr lnaotgvn, rncotgmlsfgp, jut oaogl mln tfot wos lmt rmjust. Emrn rnknlt

;Joc`wgl (:2??) ol` [mur`gl ol` Rmeirnt (:2?:) fgafcgaft tfn rmcn mi iroaenltotgml ol` suppcy kfogls gl

iokgcgtotgla nxpmrt-mrgnltn` `nvncmpenlt. Dmflsml ol` Lmaunro, nxtnl`gla ol g`no mi Fueencs nt oc.(:22?) wgtf emrn nxtnlsgvn òto, kmejgln glput-mutput ol` jgcotnroc tro`n òto tm kmeputn tfn vocun-

o``n` kmepmlnlt mi gltnrlotgmloc tro`n. Pfn vocun-o``n` sforn mi tro`n (YOV) wgtfgl Nost Osgo incc irme1>% gl ?77> tm 9?% gl :22> (:2?:k), tfn coranst `nkoòc kfolan gl oly mi tfn tfrnn rnagmls kmvnrn`.Lotgmloc òto sfmw tfn rotgm `nkcglgla irme tfn cotn ?762s gl Pfogcol`, ol` wgtf o cnss kcnor jrnoh gl tfnRnmpcns Znpujcgk mi Kfglo (RZK) (:2?:o). Imr [glaopmrn, tfn YOV rotgm imr eoluiokturns gl :220 wos:>% (:2?:j).

0Ymcz (:2?:) prmvg`ns o rnknlt stotnenlt mi tfn orauenlt, ol` rninrnlkns tm tfn cgtnroturn. ^sgla ògcy

òto irme ?777 tm :2?:, Kcgkh (:2?;) nstgeotns ol gepcgkgt kurrnlky joshnt imr tfn eodmr Ossmkgotgml mi[mutfnost Osgol Lotgmls (O[NOL) kmultrgns tfot gs `meglotn` (wgtf ocemst 72% wngaft) jy tfn ^lgtn`[totns (^[) `mccor, jut kmlkcu`ns irme tfn gl`gvgùoc kmultry vorgotgml tfot tfn rnagml gs lmt kcmsn tmfovgla o kmeeml kurrnlky joshnt. Rmltglns (:2?:) olocyzns tfn usniuclnss mi ol oarnn` OsgolKurrnlky ^lgt gl`nx imr survngccolkn gl Nost Osgo.

>Qn usn `nprnkgotgml os o anlnroc tnre tm kmvnr o iocc gl o kurrnlkys vocun rncotgvn tm olmtfnr kurrnlky

mr joshnt mi kurrnlkgns, wgtfmut rnaor` tm wfntfnr tfn kurrnlky wos prnvgmuscy pnaan` mr lmt. Pfgssnktgml `rows ml tfn emrn `ntogcn` survnys jy Kmrgk ol` Ruaf (:2?2), Fukfnt-Jmur`ml ol` Hmrglnh(:2??), ol` Oujmgl ol` Zuto (:2??).


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>

popnrs fovn sgegcor rnsucts (n.a., Jofeogl-Mshmmnn ol` Fnanrty X:221U8 Orgzn nt oc.X:226U) igl` o sgalgigkolt lnaotgvn rncotgmlsfgp jntwnnl nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty ol`nxpmrt icmws mi ngaft Cotgl Oenrgkol kmultrgns, wfgcn Pnlrnyrm (:221) usgla o acmjocsoepcn mi 61 kmultrgns kmlkcu`ns tfot nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty fos lm sgalgigkolt niinktml tro`n icmws. Pfn kmlvnltgmloc wgs`me oppnors tm jn tfot tfnrn eoy jn o lnaotgvnrncotgmlsfgp jntwnnl vmcotgcgty ol` tro`n, jut gi gt nxgsts gt gs mi eglmr gepmrtolkn (Kmrgkol` Ruaf :2?28 Oujmgl ol` Zuto :2??, Ollnx ?).9

Pfnsn orn oaarnaotn rnsucts ol`, os Eoshus (?769) pmglts mut, tfn gepokt eoy vory jysnktmr `npnl`gla ml mpnllnss tm tro`n, kmlknltrotgml cnvncs, prnvocnlkn mi cmla-tnrekmltrokts, ntk. Gt eoy ocsm jn o kml`gtgmloc rncotgmlsfgp4 Oafgml nt oc. (:227) igl` tfotnxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty fos o lnaotgvn niinkt ml prmùktgvgty armwtf wfnl tfn iglolkgocsnktmr gs ul`nvncmpn`, jut lmt mtfnrwgsn. O seoccnr luejnr mi stu`gns igl`s o pmsgtgvnrncotgmlsfgp irme tro`n tm nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty (n.a., Jrmò ol` Zmeocgs :22;),suaanstgla o twm-woy rncotgmlsfgp.

Nepgrgkoc rnsnorkf ml nxkfolan rotn cnvncs ol` tro`n fos jnnl emrn cgegtn`. Kfolans

gl tfn rnoc nxkfolan rotn kol oiinkt tro`n gl eoly `grnkt ol` gl`grnkt woys, octnrglaglknltgvns tm occmkotn glputs jntwnnl troòjcn ol` lml-troòjcn oktgvgtgns, kfolagla tfnmutput egx, ol` prmvg`gla ol gl`gkotmr mi rncotgvn kmepntgtgvnlnss. Gl tfnmrntgkoc em`ncstfn niinkts mi nxkfolan rotn kfolans gl tfn cmla-rul, wfnl jy `niglgtgml occ prgkns fovno`dustn`, wgcc lmreoccy jn znrm, wfgcn tfn sfmrt-rul niinkts orn ossueptgml-spnkgigk,`npnl`gla gl coran port ml tfn ossgalenlt mi glvmgkn kurrnlkgns ([toganr ol` [yhns:2?2). Pfn armwtf gepokt mi ul`nrvocuotgml gs anlnroccy tfmuaft tm jn pmsgtgvn, jut tfgsrnsts ml tfn prnsuen` nxgstnlkn mi `gstmrtgmls, n.a., arnotnr cnorlgla nxtnrlocgtgns gl tfntro`n` amm`s snktmrs, ol` gs emstcy suppmrtn` jy olnk`mtoc nvg`nlkn (emst kmeemlcyirme Nost Osgo).

Pfn nkmlmentrgk cgtnroturn gs surprgsglacy glkmlkcusgvn agvnl tfn anlnroc prnsueptgmltfot `nprnkgotgml/ul`nrvocuotgml gs amm` imr armwtf. Pfn rncotgmlsfgps eoy jn lml-cglnor ol` snlsgtgvn tm tfn kfmgkn mi tgen fmrgzml (ùn, imr nxoepcn, tm D-kurvn niinkts).Oujmgl ol` Zuto (:2??) kmlkcu`n tfot tfn rnsucts orn glkmlkcusgvn jnkousn tfnnxkfolan rotn gs dust mln mi eoly glicunlkns ml tfn tro`n jocolkn.

Pfn emst gltnrnstgla rnknlt kmltrgjutgmls fovn `gsoaarnaotn` tfn òto jy gl`gvgùocigres, jy prmùkt cnvnc, mr jy tgen pnrgm`. Jnreol nt oc. (:227) oraun`, tfnmrntgkoccy ol`wgtf Irnlkf igre-cnvnc òto, tfot tfn emst prmùktgvn igres nxpmrt ol` `nprnkgotgmlnlkmuroans cnss prmùktgvn igres tm nxpmrt8 tfn imrenr orn emrn cghncy tm ojsmrjnxkfolan rotn icuktuotgmls gl tfngr eorhups, wfgcn tfn cnss prmùktgvn igres rnspml` jykfolans gl nxpmrt quoltgty, sm tfot tro`n icmws `m lmt anlnroccy rnspml` arnotcy tmnxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty, jut nxkfolan rotn `nprnkgotgml kol glkrnosn tfnrnspmlsgvnlnss. Jofeolg-Mshmmnn ol` Qola (:221) nxoegln` tro`n icmws ot tfn :-

ol` ;-`gagt glùstry cnvnc jntwnnl tfn ^[ ol` sncnktn` Osgol nkmlmegns ol` imul`coran vorgotgmls gl rnspmlsgvnlnss tm nxkfolan rotn kfolans jmtf okrmss glùstrgnsol` jntwnnl kmultrgns, n.a., opprnkgotgml mi tfn ^[ `mccor oaoglst tfn rnlegljg`nkrnosn` ^[ nxpmrts gl ?6 mi tfn 66 glùstrgns ol` glkrnosn` ^[ gepmrts gl 02 mi tfnglùstrgns, o rnsuct ottrgjutn` tm `neol` irme tfn Rnmpcns Znpujcgk mi Kfglo (RZK) imrgepmrts irme tfn ^[ jngla cnss prgkn ncostgk tfol ^[ `neol` imr gepmrts irme tfn RZK.Igloccy, Oujmgl ol` Zuto (:2??4 ?>?9) pmglt mut tfot tfn rncotgmlsfgp jntwnnlnxkfolan rotns ol` tro`n vorgns mvnr tgen, os kfolans gl tfn wmrc` nkmlmey

9Dmsfnshg ol` Cozormv (:2?:), upòtgla Kmrgk ol` Ruaf (:2?2), rnpmrt o ento-olocysgs mi 91 stu`gns irme

?762 tm :2?:, mi wfgkf ;7 imul` o lnaotgvn niinkt, :2 imul` lm niinkt mr glkmlkcusgvn rnsucts, ol` 9imul` o pmsgtgvn niinkt. Pfny tnst ol` rndnkt fypmtfnsns mi pujcgkotgml jgos. Fmwnvnr, tfny eohn lmottnept tm kmltrmc imr tfn quocgty mi tfn stu`gns.


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9

eotnrgocgzn, wfgkf gs gltugtgvncy oppnocgla gl o wmrc` mi glkrnosn` mutsmurkgla ol` emrnkmepcnx suppcy kfogls, octfmuaf tfny orn lmt ojcn tm kgtn eukf nepgrgkoc nvg`nlkn.Pfnsn tfrnn kmlsg`nrotgmls eoy jn gltnr-kmllnktn` glsmior os emrn `yloegk mutwor`-mrgnltn` igres gl portgkucor glùstrgns (n.a., ncnktrmlgks) portgkgpotn tm o arnotnr `narnnml acmjoc vocun kfogls.

Occ gl occ, tfnrn gs ol nxtnlsgvn cgtnroturn ml nxkfolan rotns ol` tro`n wgtf smentfnmrntgkoc prnsueptgmls ol` nepgrgkoc suppmrt imr tfn gltugtgvn rnsucts tfot `nprnkgotgmliovmrs tro`n ol` vmcotgcgty `ntnrs tro`n, octfmuaf tfn nepgrgkoc nvg`nlkn gs em`nst.Pfnrn orn, fmwnvnr, suaanstgmls tfot tfnsn rncotgmlsfgps orn ulnvnl ol` kml`gtgmloc,pnrfops gl systneotgk woys. Mi portgkucor rncnvolkn tm Nost Osgol tro`n gs tfn rnkurrglagepcgkotgml mi nxkfolan rotn prmtnktgml ol` nxkfolan prmemtgml jy kmultrgns gl tfnrnagml ol` tfn armwgla gepmrtolkn mi rnagmloc vocun kfogls gl wfot fos jnkmen hlmwlos Ioktmry Osgo.

Qgtf rnspnkt tm tro`n icmws gl Nost Osgo, tgen snrgns olocysgs mi nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgtyol` tro`n fos prmùkn` egxn` rnsucts. Rmml nt oc. (:22>) imul` o lnaotgvn rncotgmlsfgp

jntwnnl vmcotgcgty ol` tro`n imr Dopol, tfn Znpujcgk mi Hmrno, ol` [glaopmrn, jut opmsgtgvn rncotgmlsfgp imr Pfogcol` ol` Gl`mlnsgo. Emrn rnknlt stu`gns usgla polnc òtofovn imul` o lnaotgvn rncotgmlsfgp jntwnnl nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty ol` tro`n, n.a.,Kfgt nt oc. (:2?2) imr O[NOL kmultrgns ol` tfn RZK, ol` o kml`gtgmloc rncotgmlsfgpwfnrn vmcotgcgty gs foreiuc imr tro`n wfnl tfn iglolkgoc snktmr gs ul`nr`nvncmpn` (Kfgtol` Duàn :2??).1

Pfmrjnkhn (:226), usgla òto irme tfn igvn coranst O[NOL nkmlmegns, tfn RZK8Dopol8 tfn Znpujcgk mi Hmrno8 ol` Pogpng,Kfglo, imul` o lnaotgvn rncotgmlsfgp jntwnnlnxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty ol` nxpmrt mi ncnktrmlgk kmepmlnlts, ol` Foyoho ol` Hgeuro(:227) imul` sgegcor nvg`nlkn imr eokfglnry amm`s ol` ports. Pola (:2?:) cglhs tfnsnrnsucts tm tfn strnlatfnlgla mi rnagmloc vocun kfogls, igl`gla tfot tfn cglh jntwnnlvmcotgcgty ol` tro`n gs strmlanst wgtfgl o armupgla mi tfn igvn coranst O[NOL nkmlmegns,tfn RZK8 Fmla Hmla, Kfglo8 Dopol8 tfn Znpujcgk mi Hmrno8 ol` Pogpng,Kfglo, ol`strmlanr imr tro`n gl gltnren`gotn ol` nqugpenlt amm`s tfol imr tro`n gl prgeoryprmùkts mr kmlsueptgml amm`s. Pfgs orauenlt suaansts tfot tfn rncotgmlsfgp eoy jntgen-snlsgtgvn, jnkmegla strmlanr os rnagmloc vocun kfogls fovn jnkmen emrnprnvocnlt.

;. PZO@N, ZPO[, OL@ NVKFOLAN ZOPN RMCGKGN[ GLNO[P O[GO

Nost Osgos strotnay mi nxpmrt-cn` armwtf fos rnsuctn` gl tfn ropg` nxpolsgml mi gts

sforn mi wmrc` tro`n. Os prnsnltn` gl Pojcn ? jncmw, tfn rnagmls sforn mi acmjocnxpmrts rmsn irme ?0% gl ?762 tm :?% gl ?772 ol` :9% gl :222. Gts sforn mi acmjocgepmrts ocsm rmsn irme ?0% gl ?762 tm :;% gl :222. Fmwnvnr, tfn ropg` rgsn gl jmtf tfnrnagmls acmjoc sforn mi nxpmrts ol` gepmrts scmwn` smentgen gl tfn :222s wgtf tfnrnagmls acmjoc sforn mi nxpmrts ol` gepmrts gl :22> ot :1% ol` :;%, rnspnktgvncy.Znknlt igaurns sfmw tfot tfn pmst-:221 iglolkgoc krgsgs fo` ol niinkt ml tfn rnagmlssforn mi acmjoc nxpmrts ol` gepmrts8 tfn imrenr `rmppn` tm :7.>% gl :2?? irme o acmjocsforn mi ;2% gl :2?2, wfgcn tfn cottnr glkrnosn` tm :1.>% gl :2?? irme o acmjoc sfornmi :1% gl :2?2.

1

Kfgt ol` Duàn ocsm igl` tfot usgla kurrnlky `nprnkgotgml tm prmemtn nxpmrts gs mlcy sukknssiuc wfnl tfnnxkfolan rotn gs stojcn.


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Rortgkucorcy strghgla gs tfn ropg` ol` kmlsgstnlt armwtf mi tfn RZKs sforns mitmtoc wmrc` nxpmrts ol` gepmrts irme ?762 tm :2?2, mlcy scmwgla `mwl gl :2??. Zopg`armwtf gl gts nxpmrts ol` gepmrts cn` gl tfn norcy twnlty-igrst knltury tm tfn RZKmvnrtohgla Dopol os Nost Osgos cno`gla tro`gla lotgml, wfgkf gs nspnkgoccy strghglalmtgla tfot gl ?762 tfn RZKs sforns mi acmjoc wmrc` nxpmrts ol` gepmrts wnrn mlcy ?%kmeporn` wgtf Dopols 1%.

Pojcn ?4 Nost Osgos Acmjoc Pro`n [forn, ?762:2??

Nkmlmey mr rnagmlNxpmrts

?762 ?772 :222 :22> :2?2 :2??

Fmla Hmla, Kfglo ?.? :.0 ;.: :.6 :.9 :.0Dopol 1.? 6.> 1.> >.1 >.: 0.9Znpujcgk mi Hmrno ?.2 :.2 :.1 :.1 ;.: ;.:Pogpng,Kfglo 2.2 :.2 :.; ?.7 ?.6 ?.1RZK ?.2 ?.7 ;.7 1.; ?2.9 ?2.1

O[NOL ;.7 0.; 9.1 9.; 1.2 9.7

[uj Pmtoc (Nost Osgo) ?0.? :?.? :9.; :9.6 ;2.0 :7.>

^lgtn` [totns ?:.? ??.9 ?:.? 6.1 6.9 6.;Nurmpnol ^lgml 0;.? 0>.2 ;6.2 ;7.: ;;.> ;:.6Mtfnrs ;2.6 ::.; :;.1 :>.; :1.9 :7.0

Pmtoc (Qmrc`) ?22.2 ?22.2 ?22.2 ?22.2 ?22.2 ?22.2

Nkmlmey mr rnagmlGepmrts

?762 ?772 :222 :22> :2?2 :2??

Fmla Hmla, Kfglo ?.: :.; ;.: :.6 :.6 :.9Dopol 1.0 9.1 >.6 0.6 0.> 0.1

Znpujcgk mi Hmrno ?.? :.? :.0 :.0 :.6 :.7Pogpng,Kfglo 2.2 ?.9 :.? ?.1 ?.9 ?.>RZK ?.2 ?.> ;.0 9.? 7.? 7.>

O[NOL ;.0 0.9 >.9 >.0 9.: 9.;

[uj Pmtoc (Nost Osgo) ?0.? ?6.7 ::.9 :;.: :1.2 :1.>

^lgtn` [otns ?;.0 ?0.1 ?6.6 ?9.? ?:.6 ?:.;Nurmpnol ^lgml 09.0 00.6 ;1.> ;6.0 ;;.6 ;;.?Mtfnrs :9.? :?.9 :?.: ::.; :9.; :1.?

Pmtoc (Qmrc`) ?22.2 ?22.2 ?22.2 ?22.2 ?22.2 ?22.2

[murkn4 GEI, Qmrc` Nkmlmegk Mutcmmh8 @grnktgml mi Pro`n [totgstgks.

Nost Osgol nkmlmegns fovn jnnl oktgvn gl lnamtgotgla ol` kmepcntgla rnagmloc tro`n

oarnnenlts, portgkucorcy sglkn tfn turl mi tfn knltury. Qgtfgl Nost Osgol nkmlmegnsocmln, o luejnr mi jgcotnroc ol` pcurgcotnroc tro`n oarnnenlts fovn nltnrn` gltm imrknsglkn tfn O[NOL IPO (OIPO) koen gltm niinkt gl ?77: (Pojcn :). Pfn Nost Osgolrnagmls coranst nkmlmegns, g.n., tfn RZK, Dopol, ol` tfn Znpujcgk mi Hmrno, fovnjnnl pcoynrs gl tfn imreotgml mi tfnsn oarnnenlts wgtfgl Nost Osgo ol` gl portlnrsfgpwgtf ol O[NOL enejnr kmultry.6

6

Nost Osgol nkmlmegns fovn ocsm sgaln` ZPOs gl tfn jrmo`nr rnagml mutsg`n mi tfn nkmlmegns nxoegln`gl tfgs stu`y os wncc os krmss-rnagmls (O@J :226).


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6

Pojcn :4 Eodmr Pro`n Oarnnenlts imr Nost Osgol Kmultrgns, ?77:-Rrnsnlt

Oarnnenlt [totus Wnor Nlimrkn`

Jgcotnroc ZPOs

Dopol-[glaopmrn Niinktgvn :22:

RZKEokou Niinktgvn :22;RZKFmla Hmla, Kfglo Niinktgvn :22;

Znp. mi Hmrno[glaopmrn Niinktgvn :229

DopolEocoysgo Niinktgvn :229

DopolPfogcol` Niinktgvn :221

DopolGl`mlnsgo Niinktgvn :226

DopolRfgcgppglns Niinktgvn :226

RZK[glaopmrn Niinktgvn :227

DopolYgnt Loe Niinktgvn :227

Rcurgcotnroc ZPOs

OIPO Niinktgvn ?77:

O[NOLRZK Niinktgvn :22>O[NOLZnp. mi Hmrno Niinktgvn :221

O[NOLDopol Niinktgvn :226

[murkn4 Kmepgcn` irme QPM `otojosn

Gl tol`ne wgtf tfn oktgvn lnamtgotgml ol` kmepcntgml mi rnagmloc tro`n oarnnenlts wgtftfngr Nost Osgol lngafjmrs, pnrfops olmtfnr kmltrgjutgla ioktmr tm tfn ropg` armwtf glNost Osgos tro`n gs tfot jnimrn tfn ?77176 Nost Osgol krgsgs, emst Osgol kmultrgnseogltogln` `n ioktm `mccor pnas7

, wfgkf wmrhn` tm stojgcgzn nxkfolan rotns wgtfgl tfnrnagml. Qgtf tfn o`mptgml mi emrn icnxgjcn nxkfolan rotns imccmwgla tfn ?77176 NostOsgol krgsgs, gltrornagmloc nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty fos rgsnl sgalgigkoltcy. Pojcn ;`npgkts tfn nvmcutgml mi Nost Osgol nxkfolan rotn orrolanenlts mvnr tfn pnrgm` mi

:222 tm :221 okkmr`gla tm tfn `n ioktm GEI nxkfolan rotn kcossgigkotgml.

7

[nn, imr glstolkn, Maowo ol` Gtm (:22:) imr nvg`nlkn ml tfgs eogltnlolkn mi o `n ioktm `mccor pna prgmr tmtfn ?77176 Nost Osgol iglolkgoc krgsgs.


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7

Pojcn ;4 @n Ioktm Nost Osgol Nxkfolan Zotn ZnagensOkkmr`gla tm GEI Nxkfolan Zotn Kcossgigkotgml

Nxkfolan Zotn Orrolanenlts

KurrnlkyJmor`

MtfnrKmlvnltgmlocIgxn` Rna

Orrolanenlt

KrowcglaRna

Eoloan` Icmotwgtf lmRrn`ntnregln`Rotf

Gl`npnl`nltcyIcmotgla

EmlntoryRm

cgkyIroenwmrh

NxkfolanZotn Olkfmr^[ @mccor

Fmla Hmla,Kfglo

Ygnt Loe RnmpcnsZnpujcgkmi Kfglo

Koejm`go, ComR@Z, ol`Eyoleor

Kmepmsgtn [glaopmrn

Mtfnrs Jrulng@orussocoe

EmlntoryPorant

GlicotgmlPorantgla

Gl`mlnsgo ol`Pfogcol`

Znp. mi Hmrnool` Rfgcgppglns

Mtfnrs Eocoysgo Dopol

[murkn4 GEIs @n Ioktm Kcossgigkotgml mi Nxkfolan Zotn Znagens ol` Emlntory Iroenwmrh (:226).

Pfn strghgla mjsnrvotgml irme Pojcn ; gs tfot Nost Osgol nxkfolan rotn orrolanenltskmvnr o wg`n spnktrue mi rnagens mi vorygla `narnns mi icnxgjgcgty rolagla irme tfnkrowcgla pna mi tfn RZK tm gl`npnl`nlt icmotgla rnagens gl tfn Znpujcgk mi Hmrno,Dopol, ol` tfn Rfgcgppglns. Pfn mlcy nxknptgmls orn Fmla Hmla, Kfglo8 Jrulng

@orussocoe8 ol` Ygnt Loe, occ tfrnn mi wfgkf mpnrotn o igxn` nxkfolan rotnorrolanenlt olkfmrn` ml o sglacn kurrnlky. Mln kmltrgjutgla ioktmr imr tfn emvntmwor` emrn icnxgjcn nxkfolan rotn orrolanenlt gl tfnsn Nost Osgol kmultrgns gs tfotoitnr tfn Osgol iglolkgoc krgsgs, ocemst occ mi tfn krgsgs-oiinktn` kmultrgns, g.n., Gl`mlnsgo,tfn Znpujcgk mi Hmrno, Rfgcgppglns, ol` Pfogcol`, kfmsn tm ojol`ml o kmlvnltgmlocpnaan` nxkfolan rotn rnagen gl iovmr mi icnxgjcn nxkfolan rotns, wfgcn Eocoysgogepcnenltn` o kmlvnltgmloc pnaan` orrolanenlt ultgc :22> jut fos sglkn sfgitn` tm oeoloan` icmotgla nxkfolan rotn rnagen (O@J :2?2).

Gl mtfnr wmr`s, emst Nost Osgol emlntory outfmrgtgns fovn lmt wgccglacy ossuen` tfnrnspmlsgjgcgtgns tfot kmen wgtf mpnrotgla o rgag` pna cnt ocmln tfn octnrlotgvn mi o kcnolicmot. Pm jn emrn spnkgigk, jy ol` coran, tfn eg``cn fos lmt rnoccy jnkmen fmccmw imr

tfn nxkfolan rotn pmcgkgns mi tfnsn Nost Osgol nkmlmegns, ol` emrn mi tfne fovn tfn`nsgrn` prninrnlkn mi eoloagla nxkfolan rotns tfot orn n`an` tmwor` icnxgjcnnxkfolan rotns ocjngt lmt irnn icmotgla.

Pfn gepcgkotgml mi tfn ojmvn olocysgs gs tfot emvgla imrwor` wgtf `nnpnr gltnarotgml gltfn rnagml rnqugrns smcvgla tfn nxkfolan rotn prmjcne. Pfgs tosh gs eo`n emrnkmepcnx jy o kurrnlt ul`nrstotn` luolkn mi Nost Osgol eg``cn-armul` nxkfolan rotneoloanenlt mi cnss wgccglalnss tm tmcnrotn nxkfolan rotn opprnkgotgmls. ?2

?2

Imr nvg`nlkn ml tfgs pfnlmenlml, snn, imr glstolkn, tfn stu`gns mi Rmltglns ol` Zodol (:2??) wfgkfnxoeglns tfn kosn mi Gl`go, Gl`mlnsgo, tfn Znpujcgk mi Hmrno, Rfgcgppglns, [glaopmrn, ol` Pfogcol`,wfgcn Rmltglns ol` [grnaor (:2?:o) ol` Rmltglns ol` [grnaor (:2?:j) squorncy `noc wgtf tfn gssun gl

tfn kmltnxt mi ol ollmulkn` pursugt mi glicotgml torantgla rnagens jy Gl`mlnsgo, tfn Znpujcgk mi Hmrno,Rfgcgppglns, ol` Pfogcol`.

Rort mi tfn


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?2

rnosml imr tfn ulwgccglalnss fos tm `m wgtf tfn pmtnltgoc mi cmsgla kmepntgtgvnlnssoaoglst mtfnr Nost Osgol lngafjmrgla nkmlmegns tfot kmepntn wgtf nokf mtfnr gleorhnts wgtfgl ol` mutsg`n mi tfn rnagml. Os o kmlsnqunlkn, tfn sknlorgm mi o jnaaor-tfy-lngafjmr kmepntgtgvn `nprnkgotgml strotnay, wfgkf kol jn kmstcy tm tfn rnagml gltnres mi o coran ol` ullnknssory rnoccmkotgml mi rnsmurkns okrmss tfn rnagml, ocwoyscmmes coran ml tfn fmrgzml (Howog ol` Pohoag :2?:).

0. PFN PNL[GML JNPQNNL @NRZNKGOPN@ MZ[POJCN NVKFOLAN ZOPN[4 KMLICGKPGLA@MEN[PGK O[RGZOPGML[ GL OL ZPO

Rrmcginrotgml mi ZPOs gs o socgnlt inoturn mi tfn gltnrlotgmloc tro`gla systne. Gl vgnw mitfngr nxprnssn` purpmsn mi ot cnost portgoccy cmwnrgla rnstrgktgmls tm tro`n, ZPOsanlnroccy kmeegt portgkgpolts tm irnnr-tro`n jy tygla tfngr fol`s mr eohn gt `giigkuct imrenejnrs tm octnr tfngr tnres-mi-tro`n tfrmuaf tro`gtgmloc tro`n pmcgky enosurns. Gl tfgsvngl, ZPOs nlfolkn tro`n jntwnnl enejnr kmultrgns. Gi tfn niinkt mi nxkfolan rotnvmcotgcgty ml tro`n gs sgalgigkolt, tfnl tfn tro`gtgmloc kosn imr nxkfolan rotn stojgcgty glnlkmuroagla tro`n ol` glvnstenlt oppcgns tm o kmultrys emtgvotgml mi jngla o port miol ZPO. Arnotnr nxkfolan rotn glstojgcgty oemla enejnrs mi ol ZPO kol wmrhoaoglst tfn amoc mi tro`n-krnotgml.

Ml tfn mtfnr fol`, ZPOs ocsm glkrnosn gltnrlotgmloc kmepntgtgml, ol` amvnrlenltseoy iokn prmtnktgmlgst prnssurns irme tfmsn emst lnaotgvncy oiinktn`. Agvnl tfngr ZPOkmeegtenlts ol` tfn kmlsnqunlt glojgcgty tm pursun tro`gtgmloc tro`n enosurns tmmiisnt tfn o`vnrsn kmlsnqunlkns mi arnotnr gepmrt kmepntgtgml, prmtnktgmlgst prnssurnskol tohn tfn imre mi o `nsgrn tm glkrnosn tfn cnvnc mi tfn kmultrys gltnrlotgmlockmepntgtgvnlnss vgo tfn pursugt mi o kmepntgtgvn nxkfolan rotn pmcgky, gl portgkucor, gl

tfn imre mi o kmepntgtgvn `nvocuotgml. ??

O `nprnkgotn` mr wnoh kurrnlky glkrnosns tfn `menstgk kurrnlky prgkns mi gepmrtnàmm`s, wfgkf rogsns tfn kmst mi cgvgla imr `menstgk kmlsuenrs. Gl o `menstgk pmcgtgkocnkmlmey snlsn, fmwnvnr, gt gs rncotgvncy nosgnr imr amvnrlenlts tm tro`n mii tfn wnciornmi nxpmrtnrs ol` gepmrt-kmepntgtmrs, ml tfn mln fol`, imr tfot mi kmlsuenrs, ml tfnmtfnr, sglkn `menstgk prmùknrs rnprnsnlt o emrn kmfnrnlt ol` jnttnr mraolgzn`pmcgtgkoc cmjjy. Gl o``gtgml, kmlsuenrs orn prmjojcy gcc-glimren` ojmut tfn niinkts miprmtnktgmlgse ol` orn, gl oly kosn, pmmrcy mraolgzn` (Irgn`nl nt oc. :2?:8 Jgr` ol`

Zodol :229).

Nxkfolan rotn prmtnktgml kol snrvn os osujstgtutn tm tro`n pmcgkgns, sglkn tfn tro`n gepokt mi o `nprnkgotn` mr wnoh kurrnlky gsnqugvocnlt tm tfot mi smen kmejglotgml mi kfolans gl gepmrt toxns ol` nxpmrtsujsg`gns.

Nxpmrtnrs orn, lmlntfncnss, cghncy tm jn tmrl jntwnnl o kmlknrl imr kurrnlky stojgcgty,ml tfn mln fol`, ol` o kmlknrl imr o kmepntgtgvn, fnlkn o `nprnkgotn` nxkfolan rotn,ml tfn mtfnr. Fmwnvnr, wfnl tfnsn twm kmlicgktgla kmlknrls ol` `gvnranlt gltnrnststmstojgcgzn nxkfolan rotns mr tm eogltogl tfn kmepntgtgvnlnss mi `menstgk troòjcnprmùknrsorn jrmuaft tm jnor gl tfn lotgmloc eokrmnkmlmegk pmcgky ornlo, gt gs tfncottnr wfgkf pmsns tfn jgaanr òlanr mi o kmlicgkt oemla kmultrgns. Pfn ul`nrcyglarnosml gs tfot tfn o`vnrsn kmlsnqunlkn mi tfn vmcotgcgty jntwnnl twm kmultrgns

??Kmultrgns kol put gl pcokn lml-torgii tro`n jorrgnrs (LPJs), jut amvnrlenlts wfnl iokn` wgtf arnotnrgepmrt kmepntgtgml `m lmt cgegt tfngr mptgmls tm tro`n pmcgkgns, wfgkf wgcc jn kmlstrogln` tm o arnotnr mr

cnssnr `narnn gl ol ZPO jut ocsm kmlsg`nr o kmepntgtgvn nxkfolan rotn pmcgky, wfgkf gs emrn cghncy tmrneogl o eottnr mi lotgmloc kmepntnlkn.


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??

kurrnlkgns orn nltgrncy gltnrlocgzn` gl jmtf kmultrgns `menstgk oktmrs (n.a., nxpmrtnrsol` gepmrt-kmepntgtmrs), wfnrnos o wnohnln` lotgmloc kurrnlky gepmsns o lnaotgvnnxtnrlocgty ml mtfnr kmultrgns jy trolsinrrgla tfn kmepntgtgvn prnssurn tm tfn kmultrystro`gla portlnrs, wfgkf kol stgeucotn prmtnktgmlgst snltgenlts ojrmo`. [m eukf sm tfotwfnl portlnr kmultrgns nlaoan gl tfn soen pmcgky mi wnohnlgla tfngr mwl kurrnlky,fmwnvnr, tfn kmepntgtgvn `nvocuotgmls kolknc nokf mtfnr mut wgtf lm mjsnrvn aogl glmutput, jut rnsuct gl o sgalgigkolt strogl gl jgcotnroc rncotgmls jntwnnl tfn kmultrgns glqunstgml, wfgkf kol ocsm nvnl nlòlanr tro`n oarnnenlts (Irgn`nl ol` Jrmz :2?:8Irgn`nl nt oc. :2?:).

Pfn gepcgkotgml mi tfn ojmvn olocysgs gs tfot gltnrlotgmloc kmmr`glotgml jntwnnlamvnrlenlts ol` oemla gltnrlotgmloc glstgtutgmls kol fncp tm ovmg` tfn prmjcnes tfotkol orgsn os o rnsuct mi ortgigkgoccy wnoh kurrnlkgns. Gl tfn rneogl`nr mi tfgs popnr, wnigrst vnrgiy gl tfn quoltgtotgvn snktgml tfot imccmws tfn nxgstnlkn mi tfn kmlicgktgla gltnrnstmi wfntfnr tm stojgcgzn nxkfolan rotns mr tm eogltogl tfn kmepntgtgvnlnss mi `menstgkprmùknrs gl ol ZPO usgla òto imr Nost Osgol kmultrgns. Pfn lnxt stnp, o``rnssn` gl[nktgml 9, gs tm kmlsg`nr tm wfot nxtnlt gltnrlotgmloc pmcgky kmmr`glotgml egaft fncp

o``rnss tfn prmjcnes tfot orgsn wfnl kmultrgns `nkg`n tm pursun ortgigkgoccy wnohkurrnlkgns gl mr`nr tm aogl kmepntgtgvn o`voltoan ot tfn nxpnlsn mi mtfnr kmultrgns.

>. NERGZGKOC ENPFM@MCMAW OL@ OLOCW[G[ MIZN[^CP[

Gl tfgs snktgml wn rnvgsgt tfn rncotgmlsfgps jntwnnl nxkfolan rotn `nprnkgotgmls ol`tro`n, ol` jntwnnl nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty ol` tro`n. Gl kmltrost tm prnvgmus stu`gns,fmwnvnr, wn imkus ml tfnsn rncotgmlsfgps gl tfn kmltnxt mi ZPO enejnrsfgp. Qnnstgeotn o kmlvnltgmloc arovgty em`nc mi tro`n, glkcu`gla ùeegns imr ZPO

enejnrsfgp ol` vorgojcns kopturgla nxkfolan rotn `nprnkgotgml ol` vmcotgcgty, ol` orngltnrnstn` lmt dust gl tfn `grnkt rncotgmlsfgps jntwnnl tfnsn vorgojcn ol` jgcotnroc tro`n,jut ocsm gl tfn gltnroktgml jntwnnl tfn nxkfolan rotn vorgojcns ol` ZPO enejnrsfgp.

Pfn `npnl`nlt vorgojcn gl occ mi mur nstgeotgla nquotgmls gs tfn cma vmcuen mienrkfol`gsn tro`n icmws irme kmultry g tm kmultry d. Pfn òto kmvnr ?9 Nost Osgolnkmlmegns?:

?:

Pfn sgxtnnl nkmlmegns orn Jrulng @orussocoe8 Koejm`go8 Fmla Hmla, Kfglo8 Gl`mlnsgo8 Dopol8 tfn

Znpujcgk mi Hmrno8 Com R@Z8 Eokou8 Eocoysgo8 Emlamcgo8 Eyoleor8 Rfgcgppglns8 RZK8 [glaopmrn8Pfogcol`8 ol` Ygnt Loe.

mvnr tfn pnrgm` ?772 tm :2?2. Qn krnotn o jglory vorgojcn imr pcurgcotnrocol` jgcotnroc ZPOs glvmcvgla tfn ?9 Nost Osgol nkmlmegns usgla glimreotgml prmvg`n`jy tfn Qmrc` Pro`n Mraolgzotgml (QPM). Qn ocsm krnotn o enosurn mi tfn rotn minxkfolan rotn `nprnkgotgml mi kmultry g rncotgvn tm kmultry djy kockucotgla tfn olluocovnroan ògcy kfolans gl nxkfolan rotns imr nokf pogr mi Nost Osgol kmultrgns (olglkrnosn `nlmtns ol nxkfolan rotn `nprnkgotgml). O enosurn mi nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgtywos krnotn` jy kockucotgla tfn stolòr` `nvgotgml mi tfn ògcy kfolans gl nxkfolanrotns gl nokf ynor imr nokf pogr mi Nost Osgol nkmlmegns.


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Pfn nstgeotgla nquotgmls orn4

(?)

(:)

wfnrn gol`d`nlmtn kmultrgns, t`nlmtns tgen, ol` tfn vorgojcns orn `nigln` os4

`nlmtns tfn ovnroan vocun mi jgcotnroc tro`n icmws irme kmultry gtm kmultrydot tgen t,

Wgs A@R ol` A@R pnr kopgto, rnspnktgvncy,

@ gs tfn `gstolkn jntwnnl gol`d,

Orno gs tfn col` eoss mi tfn kmultry,

Kmltgs o jglory vorgojcn wfgkf gs ulgty gigol`dsforn o col` jmr`nr,

Colags o jglory vorgojcn wfgkf gs ulgty gigol`dsforn o kmeeml colauoan,

ZPO gs o jglory vorgojcn wfgkf gs ulgty gi gol` djncmla tm tfn soen rnagmloctro`n oarnnenlt ot tgen t,

NVZ@np gs tfn rotn mi kurrnlky `nprnkgotgml mi kmultry gtm kmultrydot tgen t,

gs tfn gltnroktgml jntwnnl tfn ZPO jglory vorgojcn ol`

NVZ@np,

rnprnsnlts mtfnr glicunlkns ml jgcotnroc nxpmrts, ossuen` tm jn wncc jnfovn`.

Qn nstgeotn nquotgmls (?) ol` (:) wgtf rol`me niinkts ol` kmultry igxn` niinkts. Pfnrol`me niinkts nstgeotns usns o anlnrocgzn` cnost-squorns nstgeotmr ossueglaAoussgol `gsturjolkns tfot orn ulkmrrncotn` wgtf tfn rol`me (kmultry-pogr spnkgigk)niinkts, wfgcn tfn igxn`-niinkts wgtfgl nstgeotmr nssnltgoccy o``s o snt mi kmultry-pogr

spnkgigk gltnrknpts tm tfn nquotgml, ol` tfus nxpcmgts tfn tgen-snrgns `genlsgml mi tfnòto snt ormul` kmultry-pogr ovnroans.

Pojcn 0 prnsnlts tfn rol`me niinkts ol` igxn`-niinkts nstgeotgml rnsucts. Kmcuels (?)tm (0) sfmw tfn rol`me niinkt nstgeotns, wfgcn kmcuels (>) tm (6) prnsnlts tfmsnnstgeotn` ml tfn josgs mi igxn` niinkts. Pfn sgzn ol` `gstolkn vorgojcns orn tfn josgkarovgty em`nc tnres, nxpnktn` tm fovn pmsgtgvn ol` lnaotgvn kmniigkgnlts rnspnktgvncy.Pfn kmltgaugty ol` kmeeml colauoan ùeegns orn stolòr` kmltrmc vorgojcns, ol` tfnigxn` niinkts nstgeotgml gs gltnl`n` tm kopturn tfn euctgcotnroc rnsgstolkn tnres(Ol`nrsml ol` Yol Qglkmmp :22;).?;

?;

Qn rnkmalgzn tfn pmssgjgcgty mi ZPO imreotgml jngla glicunlkn` jy tfn cnvnc mi jgcotnroc tro`n mr tfot jmtfvorgojcns eoy fovn o kmeeml `ntnreglolt (Jognr ol` Jnrastrol` :221). Pfn prmjcne mi nl`manlngty


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?;

Pfn kmniigkgnlt ml tfn ZPO vorgojcn, 9, gs nxpnktn` tm jn pmsgtgvn, gepcygla tfot ol

ZPO glkrnosns tro`n jntwnnl portlnr kmultrgns. Pfn kmniigkgnlt 1 kopturns tfnrncotgmlsfgp jntwnnl nxkfolan rotn `nprnkgotgmls ol` tro`n gl nquotgml (?) ojmvn,

wfgcn gl nquotgml (:), tfn 1 kmniigkgnlt kopturns tfn rncotgmlsfgp jntwnnl nxkfolan rotn

vmcotgcgty ol` tro`n. Qn nxpnkt tfn kmniigkgnlt 1 tm jn pmsgtgvn gl nquotgml (?) ol`lnaotgvn gl nquotgml (:). Pfn kmniigkgnlt mi emst gltnrnst tm us gs 6. [pnkgigkoccy, 6 glnquotgml (?) kopturns tfn niinkt mi wfntfnr nxkfolan rotn `nprnkgotgmls rnglimrkn tfnnxpnktn` pmsgtgvn gepokt mi enejnrsfgp gl ZPOs ml tro`n, wfgcn gl nquotgml (:) gtokkmults imr tfn niinkt ml wfntfnr nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty lnutrocgzns tfn nxpnktn`pmsgtgvn gepokt mi ZPOs ml tro`n.

Pojcn 04 Arovgty Em`nc Nstgeotgml Znsucts

YorgojcnsZol`meNiinkts Igxn`niinkts

(?) (:) (;) (0) (>) (9) (1) (6)

Cma mi A@R gl pogr ?.;6*** ?.;0*** ?.;>*** ?.;2***(2.21) (2.21) (2.21) (2.21)

Cma mi pnr kopgto ?.27*** ?.>?*** ?.22*** ?.>:***A@R gl pogr (2.?:) (2.26) (2.?0) (2.27)

Cma mi `gstolkn -2.92 -2.>6 -2.>7 -2.?0(2.9>) (2.0?) (2.9;) (2.;;)

Cma mi orno gl pogr -2.21 -2.;6*** -2.2> -2.97***(2.?2) (2.?:) (2.?2) (2.?:)

Kmeeml col` 2.79* :.?2*** 2.7>* :.;2***Jmr`nr (2.>;) (2.>0) (2.09) (2.>:)

Kmeeml colauoan :.>7*** :.00*** :.9?*** ?.76***(2.01) (2.>9) (2.01) (2.>7)

ZPO 2.;9*** 2.:6** 2.;7*** 2.>1*** 2.;1** 2.:1** 2.02*** 2.>9***(2.27) (2.?;) (2.27) (2.?:) (2.21) (2.?;) (2.27) (2.?:)

Zotn mi nxkfolan 2.>;* 2.>:* 2.>0* 2.>;*rotn `nprnkgotgml (2.;2) (2.;2) (2.;2) (2.;2)

ZPO*rotn mi NZ ?.;>** ?.??* ?.;0** ?.?2*`nprnkgotgml (.9?) (.9:) (.9?) (.9?)

Nxkfolan rotnvmcotgcgty

-2.;0*(2.:?)

-2.01**(2.:?)

-2.;1*(2.:?)

-2.09**(2.:?)

ZPO*nxkfolanrotn vmcotgcgty

-2.69*(2.09)

-?.::**(2.01)

-2.67**(2.09)

-?.:?**(2.01)

Lm. mi mjsnrvotgmls ;,61> ;,611 ;,697 ;,61? ;,61> ;,611 ;,697 ;,61?

tfmuaf gs cghncy tm jn cnss mi ol gssun imr tfn luejnr mi Osgol nkmlmegns tfot fovn imren` ZPOsjntwnnl tfne os mppmsn` tm `nnp gltnarotgml prmdnkts cghn tfn Nurmpnol ^lgml (N^), tfn Lmrtf

Oenrgkol Irnn Pro`n Oarnnenlt (LOIPO), mr Kcmsnr Nkmlmegk Zncotgmls (KNZ), o irnn tro`noarnnenlt jntwnnl tfn amvnrlenlts mi Lnw Tnocol` ol` Oustrocgo.


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?0

Mvnrocc Z-squorn` 2.0? 2.:2 2.0? 2.:? 2.;; 2.21 2.;0 2.26[murkn4 Outfmrs kockucotgmls.

Lmtns4 Pfn npnl`nlt vorgojcn gs tfn cma mi jgcotnroc tro`n icmws. Gl kmcuels (?) tm (6), polnc oto nstgeotgmltnkflgquns orn oppcgn` tm occ olluoc mjsnrvotgmls mvnr tfn pnrgm` irme ?772 tm :2?2. Gltnrknpt ol` ynorùeey vorgojcns orn glkcu`n` (lmt rnpmrtn`). Zmjust stolòr` nrrmrs orn rnpmrtn` gl pornltfnsns.

*** Nstgeotn` kmniigkgnlts orn stotgstgkoccy sgalgigkolt ot tfn ?% cnvnc.

** Nstgeotn` kmniigkgnlts orn stotgstgkoccy sgalgigkolt ot tfn >% cnvnc.

* Nstgeotn` kmniigkgnlts orn stotgstgkoccy sgalgigkolt ot tfn ?2% cnvnc.

Pfn arovgty em`nc nxpcogls tfn jgcotnroc tro`n òto rnosmlojcy wncc. Os prn`gktn` jy tfnem`nc, tfn cma mi A@R, tfn cma mi pnr kopgto A@R, tfn kmeeml col` jmr`nr ùeey,ol` tfn kmeeml colauoan ùeey occ fovn o pmsgtgvn ol` stotgstgkoccy sgalgigkoltrncotgmlsfgp wgtf tfn vmcuen mi jgcotnroc tro`n jntwnnl Nost Osgol nkmlmegns. Pfn cmami orno kmniigkgnlt gs lnaotgvn, os nxpnktn`, ol` stotgstgkoccy sgalgigkolt gl twm (kmcuels(:) ol` (0)) mi tfn imur rol`me niinkt nstgeotns. Pfn kmniigkgnlt ml tfn `gstolkn vorgojcngs lnaotgvn jut stotgstgkoccy lmt `giinrnlt irme znrm.

Pfn kmniigkgnlts ml tfn ZPO jglory vorgojcn kmegla irme jmtf tfn rol`me niinktnstgeotns gl kmcuels (?) tm (0) ol` tfn igxn`-niinkt nstgeotns rnpmrtn` gl kmcuels (>) tm(6) rmjustcy gl`gkotn tfot enejnrsfgp gl ol ZPO glkrnosns tro`n jntwnnl tfn portlnrkmultrgns. Pfny orn emstcy stotgstgkoccy sgalgigkolt ot tfn ?% cnvnc.

Nxkfolan rotn `nprnkgotgmls orn ossmkgotn` wgtf arnotnr jgcotnroc tro`n jntwnnl NostOsgol nkmlmegns. Pfn nstgeotn` kmniigkgnlts mi tfn rotn mi nxkfolan rotn `nprnkgotgmlorn, okkmr`gla tm jmtf tfn rol`me niinkt nstgeotns gl kmcuels (?) ol` (:) ol` tfn igxn`-niinkt nstgeotns gl kmcuels (>) ol` (9) stotgstgkoccy `giinrnlt irme znrm, ocjngtmlcy ot tfn?2% sgalgigkolkn cnvnc. Qfgcn kurrnlky `nprnkgotgmls glkrnosn tro`n `grnktcy, tfnrnarnssgml rnsucts suaanst tfot nxkfolan rotn `nprnkgotgmls fovn o iurtfnr gl`grnktniinkt mi ouaenltgla tfn pmsgtgvn gepokt mi ZPOs. Pfgs gs sfmwl jy tfn kmniigkgnlt mltfn gltnroktgml tnre mi tfn ZPO jglory vorgojcn ol` tfn rotn mi nxkfolan rotn`nprnkgotgml wfgkf gs pmsgtgvn ol` stotgstgkoccy sgalgigkoltcy `giinrnlt irme znrm gl jmtftfn rol`me niinkt nstgeotns gl kmcuels (?) ol` (:) ol` tfn igxn`-niinkt nstgeotns glkmcuels (>) ol` (9).

Nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty gs ossmkgotn` wgtf cnss jgcotnroc tro`n jntwnnl Nost Osgolnkmlmegns. Pfn nstgeotn` kmniigkgnlts ml nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty orn stotgstgkoccysgalgigkolt ol` lnaotgvn gl jmtf tfn rol`me niinkt nstgeotns gl kmcuels (;) ol` (0) ol`tfn igxn`-niinkt nstgeotns gl kmcuels (1) ol` (6), wfgkf suaanst tfot nxkfolan rotnvmcotgcgty `grnktcy rnùkns tro`n. Znùkgla nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty tfnl gs jnlnigkgoc imrjgcotnroc tro`n. Emrnmvnr, tfn lnaotgvn ol` stotgstgkoccy sgalgigkolt kmniigkgnlts ml tfngltnroktgml tnre jntwnnl nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty ol` tfn ZPO jglory vorgojcn gl jmtftfn rol`me niinkt nstgeotns (kmcuels (;) ol` (0) mi Pojcn 0) ol` tfn igxn` niinkt

nstgeotns (kmcuels (1) ol` (6) mi Pojcn 0) gl`gkotn tfot nxkfolan rotn stojgcgty gsnspnkgoccy jnlnigkgoc imr glkrnosgla tro`n oemla ZPO enejnrs. Gl mtfnr wmr`s, lmtmlcy `mns nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty fovn o `grnkt lnaotgvn gepokt ml tro`n icmws, gt ocsmfos o iurtfnr gl`grnkt niinkt mi egtgaotgla tfn pmsgtgvn gepokt mi ZPOs gl Nost Osgo.

9. OZAÊNLP[ IMZ OL@ OAOGL[P GLPNZLOPGMLOCRMCGKW KMMZ@GLOPGML

Pfn orkfgtnkts mi tfn pmst-?70> acmjoc nkmlmegk glstgtutgmls wnrn glicunlkn` jy tfnnxpnrgnlkn mi tfn ?7;2s, ol` jy tfn prnvocnlt gltnrprntotgmls mi tfot `nko`n (n.a.,

Lurhsn ?700). Pfnsn gltnrprntotgmls sow icmotgla nxkfolan rotns ol` kmepntgtgvn


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`nvocuotgmls os `nstojgcgzgla tm tfn acmjoc nkmlmey, ol` tfn GEIs Ortgkcns miOarnnenlt rnqugrn` enejnrs tm ovmg` eolgpucotgla nxkfolan rotn mr tfn gltnrlotgmlocemlntory systne tm prnvnlt niinktgvn jocolkn mi poyenlts o`dustenlt mr tm aogl oluliogr kmepntgtgvn o`voltoan mvnr mtfnr kmultrgns. Pfn Anlnroc Oarnnenlt ml Porgiisol` Pro`n (AOPP) snt rucns imr tro`n pmcgky tfot wnrn `nsgaln` tm cgegt prmtnktgml.Fmwnvnr, Ortgkcn VGG occmwn` oly kmltroktgla porty tm gepmsn quoltgtotgvn rnstrgktgmls mltro`n gl mr`nr tm soinauor` gts jocolkn mi poyenlts pmsgtgml.

@urgla tfn Jrnttml Qmm`s pnrgm`, kmultrgns rnsmrtn` tm gepmrt surkforans wfnl iokn`wgtf jocolkn mi poyenlts `nigkgts. Pfnsn jnkoen cnss kmeeml ùrgla tfn ?792s,wfnl tfny wnrn typgkoccy sfmrt-tnre enosurns tfot wnrn prnkursmrs tm nvnltuoc`nvocuotgml. Pfn emst prmeglnlt nxoepcns wnrn Jrgtogls ?>% gepmrt surkforan glMktmjnr ?790 rnùkn` tm ?2% gl ?79> ol` ncgeglotn` gl Lmvnejnr ?799 jnimrn tfn?791 `nvocuotgml mi tfn pmul` stnrcgla, ol` tfn Ouaust ?71? Lgxml [fmkh wfnl tfn^[ gepmsn` o ?2% surkforan ml gepmrts tfot wos rnemvn` jnimrn tfn `nvocuotgml mitfn `mccor ul`nr tfn @nknejnr ?71? [egtfsmlgol Oarnnenlt.

Imccmwgla tfn o`mptgml mi anlnrocgzn` icmotgla gl ?71;, tfn eodmr nkmlmegns rnlmulkn`nxkfolan rotn stojgcgty gl iovmr mi gl`npnl`nlt emlntory pmcgkgns. Znkurrgla tro`n`gsputns wnrn rnsmcvn` jy tnepmrory enosurns kmltrory tm tfn spgrgt, gi lmt tfn cnttnr, miAOPP, n.a., tfn vmcultory nxpmrt rnstroglt oarnnenlts mi tfn ?762s emst lmtojcygepmsn` jy tfn ^[ ml Dopolnsn kor gepmrts gl o pnrgm` mi ropg` ^[ `mccor opprnkgotgml.Pfn `grnkt ol` gl`grnkt kmlsnqunlkns mi sukf aroy orno prmtnktgmlgst enosurns wnrn otcnost os foreiuc osol` typgkoccy eukf emrn foreiuc tfoltfmsn irme torgii prmtnktgml(Rmeirnt ?767), ol` mln mi tfn okfgnvnenlts mi tfn ^ruauoy Zmul` wos tm mutcowtfne.

[glkn tfn nstojcgsfenlt mi tfn QPM gl ?77>, tfn kmllnktgml jntwnnl nxkfolan rotnsol` tro`n pmcgkgns fos ioccnl jntwnnl tfn kmepntnlkgns mi tfn GEI ol` QPM. GEIoarnnenlts kml`nel prmtroktn` coran-skocn gltnrvnltgml gl mln `grnktgml gl nxkfolaneorhnts, jut GEI survngccolkn gs wnoh (Eusso :226), ol` nvnl gi vgmcotgml wnrn imul`tfn GEI fos lm enols mi kmepnccgla o kmultry tm kfolan gts pmcgky (Grwgl :2??). PfnQPM fos ol nlimrknenlt enkfolgse, g.n., solktgign` tro`n rntocgotgml, jut lmln mi tfnAOPP Ortgkcns mr mtfnr QPM oarnnenlts prmvg`n kcnor cnaoc kml`gtgmls ul`nr wfgkfnxkfolan rotn pmcgkns egaft jn oktgmlojcn. Pfn cokulo krnotns prnssurn imr ulgcotnrocenosurns, emst lmtojcy `gskussn` gl ^[ pmcgtgkoc `njotns ojmut tfn RZKs purpmrtn`cyul`nrvocun` kurrnlky. Kmpncmvgtkf ol` Rnvnfmusn (:2?2) prmvg`n nvg`nlkn tfotkurrnlky ul`nrvocuotgml glkrnosns tfn cghncgfmm` mi QPM gsputns.

Pfn `giigkucty gl ossgalgla kmepntnlkgns imr nxkfolan rotn pmcgkgns gs, mi kmursn, tfotnxkfolan rotns eoy jn rnspml`gla tm cnagtgeotn eokrmnkmlmegk pmcgky `nkgsgmls mrtfny eoy jn eolgpucotn` tm okfgnvn o kmepntgtgvn nàn gl gltnrlotgmloc eorhnts. O

kmultry iokn` wgtf ulnepcmyenlt mr scmw armwtf eoy rnspml` wgtf nxpolsgmlorypmcgkgns tfot cno` tm nxkfolan rotn `nprnkgotgml, wfgkf gltnr ocgo wgcc fovn tfn `nsgrojcnkmlsnqunlkn mi strnlatfnlgla tfn stgeucus vgo glkrnosn` lnt nxpmrts, jut tfgs eoyoppnor tm tfn kmultrys tro`gla portlnrs os mjtoglgla ol uliogr o`voltoan glgltnrlotgmloc tro`n tfrmuaf kurrnlky eolgpucotgml. Pfn GEI imreucotgml `nlmulkglaprmtroktn` gltnrvnltgml gl mln `grnktgml gs ol ottnept tm `gskrgeglotn jntwnnl tfnsntwm emtgvotgmls, jut prmtroktn` gs `giigkuct tm `nigln ol` gltnrvnltgml eoy jn gl`grnkt.Nvnl gl o purn icmotgla nxkfolan rotn nlvgrmlenlt wgtf lm gltnrvnltgml,eokrmnkmlmegk pmcgkgns eoy jn pnrkngvn` os jnaaor-tfy-lngafjmr stgeucg tm tro`nosgl imr nxoepcn Dopols nxpolsgmlory eokrm pmcgkgns gl :2?2mr os jnlnigkgoc stgeucg tmacmjoc `neol`. [gegcorcy, okkueucotgml mi rnsnrvns okkmepolgn` jy stnrgcgzotgml eoyjn `rgvnl jy prnkoutgmlory emtgvns, jut wgcc rnsuct gl nxkfolan rotn prmtnktgmlgse ol`prmvg`n ol nxpmrt stgeucus rncotgvn tm o igxn` nxkfolan rotn rnagen wgtfmut rnsnrvn


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okkueucotgml. O rnknlt survny mi nxkfolan rotn rnagens gl nenragla Osgo (Zodol:2??) rninrs tm o wg`nsprno` oppornlt inor mi opprnkgotgml. ?0

Kmlknrls ojmut tfn tro`n kmlsnqunlkns mi ul`nrvocuotgml gltnrokt wgtf kmlknrls tfotkurrnlky vmcotgcgty glkrnosns tfn kmsts mi gltnrlotgmloc tro`n. Pfn tnlsgml gs nvg`nlt gl

tfn nvmcutgml mi nxkfolan orrolanenlts oemla Nurmpnol kmultrgns sglkn tfnnstojcgsfenlt mi tfn kustmes ulgml gl tfn ?792s. Oitnr smen Nurmpnol kmultrgnso`mptn` tfn [lohn gl ?71:, tfny qugkhcy `rmppn` tfn orrolanenlt jnkousn gt pmsn`tmm eukf rnstrgktgml ml `menstgk eokrmpmcgky gl ol nro mi anlnrocgzn` icmotgla ol`stoaicotgml. Fmwnvnr, jgcotnroc nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty wos foreiuc imr tro`n wgtfgl tfnkustmes ulgml ol` nspnkgoccy kmstcy imr kmultrgns wgtf o kmeeml oargkucturoc pmcgky tfotnokf ynor snt iore prgkns gl ol ottnept tm jocolkn prmùknr ol` kmlsuenr gltnrnsts.Qgtfgl o ynor mi tfn [lohns `niglgtgvn `negsn gl ?719, tfn cno`nrs mi Irolkn olÀnreoly ol` tfn Kfogreol mi tfn Nurmpnol Kmeegssgml lnamtgotn` o lnw NurmpnolEmlntory [ystne tfot cgegtn` jgcotnroc nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty ol` jnkoen tfnprnkursmr tm tfn nurm.

?>

Gl kmltrost tm tfn cmla-tnre N^ nxpnrgnlkn cno`gla tm tfn nurmzmln, Kmpncmvgtkf ol`Rnvnfmusn (imrtfkmegla) kmltnl` tfot kmultrgns orn cnss cghncy tm o`mpt mr sustogl oigxn` nxkfolan rotn wfnl tfny fovn sgaln` ol ZPO wgtf tfn kmultry gl rncotgml tmwfgkf tfny fovn tro`gtgmloccy igxn` tfn kurrnlky mr tfn eodmr glùstrgoc kmultry wgtfwfgkf tfny fovn tfn emst nxtnlsgvn tro`n tgns. ^sgla òto ml 77 kmultrgns irme ?71>:220, tfny igl` strmla suppmrt imr tfn fypmtfnsgs tfot kmultrgns wfgkf fovn sgaln` oZPO ocsm tnl` tm fovn emrn `nprnkgotn` kurrnlkgns. Rrmtnktgmlgse fos jnnl arnotnstot tfn rnagmloc cnvnc ùrgla pnrgm`s mi sforp gltro-rnagmloc nxkfolan rotn icuktuotgmls,sukf os tfn ?77:7; Nurmpnol Emlntory [ystne krgsgs ol` tfn ?777 Jrozgcgol rnoc`nvocuotgml wgtfgl Enrkmsur. Qgtfgl tfn nurmzmln tnlsgmls stgcc nxgst, n.a., rncotgla tmwmrrgns ojmut wfntfnr tfn Irnlkf amvnrlenlt wgcc rnsmrt tm sujsg`gns mr mtfnrprmtnktgmlgst enosurns tm cgegt tfn `nkcgln mi Rnuanmt gl :2?;.

Osgol kmultrgns iokn sgegcor tnlsgmls. Qfgcn tfnrn fos jnnl cgttcn nltfusgose imrkurrnlky ulgml ol` rnlulkgotgml mi emlntory pmcgky gl`npnl`nlkn, jgcotnroc nxkfolanrotn emvnenlts fovn jnnl rnùkn` jy eoly Osgol kmultrgns imccmwgla o `n ioktm`mccor stolòr`. [ujroeolgol (:2??) orauns tfot tfn `mccor stolòr` gs jngla rnpcokn`jy o rnlegljg zmln os tfn RZK jnkmens o krukgoc pcoynr gl rnagmloc vocun kfogls. ?9

?0

Ocsm rninr tm immtlmtn ?2 mi tfn popnr imr mtfnr nvg`nlkn ml tfgs inor mi opprnkgotgml gl tfn rnagml.

Gl:2?:, tfn RZK eo`n orrolanenlts wgtf tfn Znpujcgk mi Hmrno ol` Pogpng,Kfglo tmglkrnosn tfn usn mi tfn rnlegljg gl gltnrlotgmloc trolsoktgmls, octfmuaf sgegcorprmpmsocs wgtf Dopol wnrn lnaotgvncy oiinktn` jy tnrrgtmrgoc `gsputns, rnicnktgla tfnmitnl pmcgtgkoc loturn mi sukf `nvncmpenlts (Kfgl :2?;). Agvnl kmlknrls ojmutrnlegljg ul`nrvocuotgml, tfgs kmuc` rnsuct gl o jrmo`nr ossnssenlt mi Nost Osgo os ozmln mi kurrnlky eolgpucotgml.

?>Pfn rmcn mi Kmeeulgty igskoc pmcgkgns, ol` nspnkgoccy tfn kmeeml oargkucturoc pmcgky, gl tfn ropg`nenranlkn mi o rnjrol`n` [lohn gl ?71116 gs olocysn` gl Josnvg ol` Arossg (?77;) ol` Rmeirnt(?77?).

?9Irolhnc (:2??) kmeporns prmspnkts imr tfn gltnrlotgmlocgzotgml mi tfn yuol (ZEJ) wgtf tfot mi tfn ^[

`mccor gl ?7?;0>, tfn Anreol eorh gl ?71;72, ol` tfn Dopolnsn ynl gl ?7167? ol` nepfosgzns tfrnn

ioktmrs4 nkmlmegk sgzn, kmlig`nlkn gl tfn kurrnlky, ol` `nptf mi iglolkgoc eorhnts. Pfn ZEJ sotgsigns tfnigrst twm jut tfn cottnr wgcc fmc` jokh gts gltnrlotgmlocgzotgml.


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?1

1. KMLKC^[GML

Pfn kmllnktgmls jntwnnl nxkfolan rotn rnagens ol` tro`n icmws orn kmepcnx. [tu`gnsigl` systneotgk pmsgtgvn rncotgmlsfgps jntwnnl nxkfolan rotn ul`nrvocuotgml mr

`nprnkgotgml ol` nxpmrts, ol` os `nprnkgotgml gs o znrm-sue aoen tfgs gs o pmtnltgocsmurkn mi `gsputns jntwnnl kmultrgns. [glkn tfn nl` mi tfn Jrnttml Qmm`s igxn`nxkfolan rotn rnagen gl ?71;, fmwnvnr, tfnrn fos jnnl lm euctgcotnroc oanlky toshn`wgtf emlgtmrgla nxkfolan rotns mr rnsmcvgla `gsputns mvnr tfn usn mi nxkfolan-rotnsimr tro`n pmcgky purpmsns. Gt gs o aroy orno ioccgla jntwnnl tfn kmepntnlkgns mi tfn GEIol` QPM.

Pfn nkmlmentrgk cgtnroturn miinrs smen kousn imr rncgni glsmior os tfn gepokt mi jmtf tfncnvnc ol` tfn vmcotgcgty mi nxkfolan rotns ml tro`n oppnors tm jn seocc. Fmwnvnr, tfgseoy rnicnkt o twnltgntf knltury pnrspnktgvn, os emrn ol` emrn kmultrgns o`mpt nxpmrt-mrgnltn` `nvncmpenlt strotnagns ol` jnkmen glvmcvn` gl vocun kfolans wfnrnprn`gktojgcgty mi prgkns ol` kmsts orn gepmrtolt. Pfnsn `nvncmpenlts orn nspnkgoccy

prmlmulkn` gl Nost Osgo wfnrn kmultrgns orn mutwor`-mrgnltn` ol` portgkgpotn glrnagmloc vocun kfogls mitnl rninrrn` tm os Ioktmry Osgo.

Olmtfnr socgnlt inoturn mi tfn twnlty-igrst knltury Nost Osgol nkmlmey fos jnnl tfnprmcginrotgml mi tro`n oarnnenlts. Rortgkgpotgml gl ol ZPO pcokns kmlstroglts ml okmultrys ojgcgty tm pursun gl`npnl`nlt tro`n pmcgkgns8 nvnl o irnn tro`n oarnnenlt glwfgkf kmultrgns rntogl tro`n pmcgky outmlmey vgs--vgs lml-enejnrs, rnstrgktsgltrmùktgml mi prmtnktgmlgst enosurns ml tro`n wgtf enejnrs. Gl tfgs snttgla enejnrkmultrgns eoy jn tneptn` tm usn kurrnlky `nprnkgotgml os ol octnrlotgvn tmprmtnktgmlgst tro`n pmcgkgns, mr tm aogl o kmepntgtgvn nàn os ol nxpmrtnr. Ot tfn soentgen, gi ZPO imreotgml gs `rgvnl jy o `nsgrn tm iokgcgtotn tro`n oemla kmultrgns glvmcvn`gl rnagmloc vocun kfogls, nxkfolan rotn stojgcgty wgcc jn `nsgrojcn.

Pfgs popnr olocyzns tfn gepokt mi tfn cnvnc ol` vmcotgcgty mi nxkfolan rotns ml jgcotnroctro`n gl ?772:2?2 oemla sgxtnnl Nost Osgol nkmlmegns (O[NOL+;8 Fmla Hmla,Kfglo8 Eokou8 ol` Emlamcgo), eoly mi wfgkf fovn sfgitn` irme lmt jngla port mi olyZPOs gl ?772 tm fovgla o rolan mi ZPO portlnrs gl tfn rnagml. Gl o vorgnty mi stolòràrovgty em`nc spnkgigkotgmls, nxpmrts orn pmsgtgvncy rncotn` tm tfn rotn mi nxkfolan rotn`nprnkgotgml ol` tm ZPO enejnrsfgp ol` lnaotgvncy rncotn` tm nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty.Pfn lmvnc igl`gla gs tfot gltnroktgml tnres gl`gkotn tfot jmtf nxkfolan rotn niinkts orneoalgign` wfnl tfn twm nkmlmegns fovn o tro`n oarnnenlt. Qn gltnrprnt tfn cnvncrnsuct os gl`gkotgla tfot, jnkousn o ZPO rnstrgkts amvnrlenlts tro`n pmcgkyglstruenlts, tfny orn emrn cghncy tm usn tfn nxkfolan rotn imr tro`n pmcgky nl`s. Qngltnrprnt tfn vmcotgcgty rnsuct os nvg`nlkn tfot, jnkousn Nost Osgol tro`n oarnnenltsorn rncotn` tm iroaenltotgml ol` rnagmloc vocun kfogls, nxkfolan rotn vmcotgcgty gs

nspnkgoccy foreiuc tm tro`n icmws wgtfgl ZPOs.

Pfn pmcgky gepcgkotgmls iovmr imreotgml mi ZPOs oemla kmultrgns wgsfgla tm portgkgpotngl rnagmloc vocun kfogls, jnkousn sukf oarnnenlts kol torant `nsgrojcn tro`niokgcgtotgml enosurns, glkcu`gla nxkfolan rotn stojgcgty. Pfnrn gs, fmwnvnr, o pmtnltgoctgen-glkmlsgstnlky prmjcne. Gi o kmlsnqunlkn mi tfn ZPO gs gltnlsgign` prnssurn mlgepmrt-kmepntgla prmùknrs, o enejnr eoy rnsmrt tm nxkfolan rotn `nprnkgotgml osol glstruenlt imr prmtnktgml. Fmwnvnr, `nprnkgotgml gs pmtnltgoccy foreiuc tm mtfnrkmultrgns, gepcygla tfn lnn` imr smen emlgtmrgla enkfolgse wgtfgl tfn ZPO,kmeporojcn tm ovmg`gla tfn GEI-QPM pmcgky aop ot tfn acmjoc cnvnc. Qgtf `nnpnlglagltnarotgml, tfn `nsgrn imr nxkfolan rotn stojgcgty wgcc nvnltuoccy mutwngaf tfn `nsgrn tmeogltogl o prmtnktgmlgst tmmc. Pfgs fos jnnl tfn nvmcutgmlory potf gl tfn Nurmpnol

^lgml. Qgtfgl O[NOL tfnrn fos jnnl o sgegcor tgen potf, octfmuaf lmt sm kcnorcy


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?6

imkusn` ml nxkfolan rotns.?1

?1

@nspgtn OIPO nltnrgla gltm niinkt gl ?77:, gts gepokt `urgla tfn ?772s wos cgegtn` jy tfn nxtnlsgvn cgst minxknptgmls imr pmcgtgkoccy gepmrtolt oktgvgtgns8 Eocoysgos kor gl`ustry wos tfn emst fgaf-prmigcn nxoepcn,jut tfnrn wnrn eoly mtfnrs. Gl tfn twnlty-igrst knltury sukf nxknptgmls fovn jnnl ojol`mln` gl iovmrmi krnotgla o emrn gltnarotn` gltro-O[NOL eorhnt nl rmutn tm ol O[NOL Nkmlmegk Kmeeulgty. Pfnprnssurns imr nxkfolan rotn stojgcgty wgtfgl tfn ONK wgcc jn sgegcor tm tfmsn tfot jugct up gl tfn N^ oitnrkmepcntgml mi tfn kustmes ulgml ol` tfnl tfn [glacn Eorhnt (NK7:) prmaroe.

Fmw nxtnlsgvn sukf prnssurns wgcc jn gl Nost Osgo wgcc`npnl` lmt mlcy upml fmw eoly kmultrgns snrgmuscy `nsgrn tm jn gl tfgs emrngltnarotn` nkmlmegk orno, jut ocsm ml tfngr glstgtutgmloc ol` pmcgtgkoc rno`glnss tmkmeegt tm sukf arol`nr skfnens.


21/24


?7

ZNINZNLKN[

Oafgml, R., R. Jokkfntto, Z. Zolkgrn, ol` H. Zmamii. :227. Nxkfolan Zotn Ymcotgcgty

ol` Rrmùktgvgty Armwtf4 Pfn Zmcn mi Iglolkgoc @nvncmpenlt. Dmurloc miEmlntory Nkmlmegks >94 070>?;.

Ol`nrsml, D., ol` N. vol Qglkmmp. :22;. Arovgty wgtf Arovgtos4 O [mcutgml tm tfnJmr`nr Ruzzcn.Oenrgkol Nkmlmegk Znvgnw7;(?)4 ?12?7:.

Orgzn, O., P. Msola, ol` @. [cmttdn. :226. Nxkfolan Zotn Ymcotgcgty gl Cotgl Oenrgkool` gts Gepokt ml Imrngal Pro`n. Gltnrlotgmloc Znvgnw mi Nkmlmegks olÌglolkn ?14 ;;00.

Osgol @nvncmpenlt Jolh (O@J). :226. Nenragla Osgol Znagmlocgse4 O Rortlnrsfgpimr [forn` Rrmspnrgty. Eolgco4 O@J.

Oujmgl, E., ol` E. Zuto. :2??. Pfn Zncotgmlsfgp jntwnnl Nxkfolan Zotns ol`

Gltnrlotgmloc Pro`n4 O Znvgnw mi Nkmlmegk Cgtnroturn. QPM [toii QmrhglaRopnr NZ[@-:2??-?1.

Jokkfnto, R., ol` N. vol Qglkmmp. :222. @mns Nxkfolan Zotn [tojgcgty GlkrnosnPro`n ol` Qnciorn=Oenrgkol Nkmlmegk Znvgnw7;4 0:>>.

Jofeolg-Mshmmsnn, E., ol` [. Fnanrty. :221. Nxkfolan Zotn Ymcotgcgty ol` Pro`nIcmws4 O Znvgnw Ortgkcn. Dmurloc mi Nkmlmegk [tu`gns ;0(;)4 :??>>.

Jofeolg-Mshmmsnn, E., ol` W. Qola. :221. ^lgtn` [totnsKfglo Pro`n ot tfnKmeem`gty Cnvnc ol` tfn Wuol-@mccor Nxkfolan Zotn. KmltnepmroryNkmlmegk Rmcgky:>4 ;0?9?.

Jognr, [., ol` D. Jnrastrol`. :221. @m Irnn Pro`n Oarnnenlts Oktuoccy Glkrnosn

Enejnrs Gltnrlotgmloc Pro`n= Dmurloc mi Gltnrlotgmloc Nkmlmegks 1?(?)4 1:7>.

Joc`wgl, Z. :2??. Pro`n ol` Glùstrgocgsotgml oitnr Acmjocgsotgmls :l` ^ljul`cgla4 FmwJugc`gla ol` Dmglgla o [uppcy Kfogl orn @giinrnlt ol` Qfy gt Eottnrs. LJNZQmrhgla RopnrLm. ?1,1?9. @nknejnr.

Josnvg, A., ol` [. Arossg. ?77;. Pfn Krgsgs mi tfn Nurmpnol Emlntory [ystne ol` gtsKmlsnqunlkns imr Oargkucturoc Pro`n. Znvgnw mi Nkmlmegk Kml`gtgmls gl Gtocy.Duln4 6??20.

Jnreol, L., R. Eortgl, ol` P. Eoynr. :227. Fmw `m @giinrnlt Nxpmrtnrs rnokt tmNxkfolan Zotn Kfolans= Pfnmry, Nepgrgks ol` Oaarnaotn Gepcgkotgmls. KNRZ@gskussgml Ropnr107;. Cml`ml4 Knltrn imr Nurmpnol Rmcgky Znsnorkf.

Jgr`, A.,ol` Z. Zodol. :229. Pfn Rmcgtgkoc Nkmlmey mi [nqunlkgla4 Emlntory vnrsusPro`n Znagmlocgse. Lmrtf Oenrgkol Dmurloc mi Nkmlmegks ol` Iglolkn ?1(;)4;;>;0?.

Jrmò, K., ol` D. Zmeocgs. :22;. G`nltgiygla tfn Zncotgmlsfgp jntwnnl Pro`n ol`Nxkfolna Zotn Ymcotgcgty. ^lpujcgsfn` popnr ovogcojcn otfttps4//iokucty.kfgkoamjmmtf.nù/dmfl.rmeocgs/rnsnorkfnr/nrv]tro`n.pì.

Kopmrocn, P., ol` H. @mrmm`gol. ?770. Nxkfolan Zotn Yorgojgcgty ol` tfn Icmw miGltnrlotgmloc Pro`n. Nkmlmegk Cnttnrs 094 07>0.

Kfgl, A. :2?;. Kurrnlky Gltnrlotgmlocgsotgml gl Osgo. Nost Osgo Imrue, pmstn` ml 6Doluory ot www.nostosoimrue.mra.
https://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.romalis/researcher/erv_trade.pdfhttp://www.eastasaforum.org/http://www.eastasaforum.org/https://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.romalis/researcher/erv_trade.pdf


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:2

Kfgt, E.E, ol` O. Duàn. :2??. Lml-cglnor Niinkt mi Nxkfolan Zotn Ymcotgcgty mlNxpmrts4 Pfn Zmcn mi Iglolkgoc @nvncmpenlt gl Nenragla Nost OsgolNkmlmegns. Gltnrlotgmloc Znvgnw mi Oppcgn` Nkmlmegks :>(?)4 ?21?7.

Kfgt, E.E, E. Zgzmv, ol` @. Qgccnljmkhnc. :2?2. Nxkfolan Zotn Ymcotgcgty ol` Nxpmrts4

Lnw Nepgrgkoc Nvg`nlkn irme tfn Nenragla Nost Osgol Nkmlmegns. Pfn Qmrc`Nkmlmey;;(:)4 :;79;.

Kcgkh, Z. :2?;. Fmw Kcmsn gs O[NOL tm o Kmeeml Acmjoc Kurrnlky Joshnt= Ropnrprnsnltn` ot tfn Oenrgkol Nkmlmegk Ossmkgotgml kmlinrnlkn. [ol @gnam, >Doluory.

Kmpncmvgtkf, E., ol` D. Rnvnfmusn. :2?2. Kurrnlky Qors jy Mtfnr Enols= NxkfolanZotns ol` AOPP/QPM @gsputn Glgtgotgml, ulpujcgsfn` popnr ovogcojcn otfttp4//lkaa.prglkntml.nù/GRN[/:2?2/popnrs/I::2]popnr;.pì.

Kmpncmvgtkf, E., ol` D. Rnvnfmusn (imrtfkmegla). Pgns Pfot Jgl`= Rrninrnltgoc Pro`nOarnnenlts ol` Nxkfolan Zotn Rmcgky Kfmgkn. Gltnrlotgmloc [tu`gns _uortnrcy.

Ovogcojcn ot4 otfttps4//eywnjspokn.wgsk.nù/kmpncmvgtkf/wnj/Kmpncmvgtkf&Rnvnfmusn]PgnsPfotJgl`]G[_]imrtfkmegla.pì

Kmrgk, J., ol` A. Ruaf. :2?2. Pfn Niinkts mi Nxkfolan Zotn Yorgojgcgty mlGltnrlotgmloc Pro`n4 O ento-rnarnssgml olocysgs.Oppcgn` Nkmlmegks 0:4 :,9;?00.

@n Arouwn, R. ?766. Nxkfolan Zotn Yorgojgcgty ol` [cmw`mwl gl Gltnrlotgmloc Pro`n.GEI [toii Ropnrs ;>4 9;60.

@usfhm, D., ol` @. Cozormv. :2?:. Nxkfolna Zotn Ymcotgcgty ol` Pro`n4 O ento-rnarnssgml olocysgs. AZR Gltnrlotgmloc Dmurloc mi Jusglnss ol` Nkmlmegks?(?)4 :007.

Ngkfnlarnnl, J. ?77:. Amc`nl Inttnrs4 Pfn Amc` [tolòr` ol` tfn Arnot @nprnssgml,?7?7?7;7. Lnw Wmrh, LW4 Mximr` ^lgvnrsgty Rrnss.

Ngkfnlarnnl, J., ol` @. Grwgl. :2?2. Pfn [cg`n tm Rrmtnktgmlgse gl tfn Arnot@nprnssgml4 Qfm [ukkuejn` ol` Qfy= Dmurloc mi Nkmlmegk Fgstmry12(0)461?71.

Nvnlntt, [, n`. :2?2. Pfn ^[-[glm Kurrnlky @gsputn4 Lnw Glsgaft irme Nkmlmegks,Rmcgtgks ol` Cow. Knltrn imr Nurmpnol Rmcgky Znsnorkf n-jmmh.

Irolhnc, D. :2??. Fgstmrgkoc Rrnkn`nlts imr Gltnrlotgmlocgzotgml mi tfn ZEJ, KA[/GGAAQmrhgla Ropnr. Ovogcojcn ot4fttp4//www.kir.mra/kfglo/fgstmrgkoc-prnkn`nlts-gltnrlotgmlocgzotgml-rej/p:9:7;.

Irnul`, K, ol` E.@. Rgnrmco. :226. Nxpmrt [urans4 Pfn Rmwnr mi o KmepntgtgvnKurrnlky. Rmcgky Znsnorkf Qmrhgla Ropnr [nrgns 01>2. Qosfglatml, @K4 Qmrc`Jolh.

Irgn`nl, D., ol` D. Cowrnlkn Jrmz. :2?:. Pfn Rmcgtgkoc Nkmlmey mi GltnrlotgmlocEmlntory Rmcgky Kmmr`glotgml. Gl4 Fol`jmmh mi [oinauor`gla Acmjoc Iglolkgoc[tojgcgty, n`gtn` jy A. Koprgm nt oc. ^H4 Oko`negk Rrnss.

Irgn`nl, D., E. Rnttgs, @. Zm`rgh, ol` N. Tn`gccm. :2?:. Oitnr tfn Iocc4 Pfn Iuturn miAcmjoc Kmmpnrotgml. Anlnvo Znpmrts ml tfn Qmrc` Nkmlmey ?0.
http://ncgg.princeton.edu/IPES/2010/papers/F220_paper3.pdfhttp://www.cfr.org/china/historical-precedents-internationalization-rmb/p26293http://www.cfr.org/china/historical-precedents-internationalization-rmb/p26293http://www.cfr.org/china/historical-precedents-internationalization-rmb/p26293http://www.cfr.org/china/historical-precedents-internationalization-rmb/p26293http://www.cfr.org/china/historical-precedents-internationalization-rmb/p26293http://www.cfr.org/china/historical-precedents-internationalization-rmb/p26293http://ncgg.princeton.edu/IPES/2010/papers/F220_paper3.pdf


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:?

Fo`ò`, E., ol` K. Rolkorm. :2?2. Kol Znoc Nxkfolan Zotn ^l`nrvocuotgml JmmstNxpmrts ol` Armwtf gl @nvncmpgla Kmultrgns= Wns, Jut Lmt imr Cmla,YmxN^.mra. 6 Ducy.

Foyohowo, H,, ol` I. Hgeuro. :227. Pfn Niinkt mi Nxkfolan Zotn Ymcotgcgty ml

Gltnrlotgmloc Pro`n gl Nost Osgo. Dmurloc mi tfn Dopolnsn ol` GltnrlotgmlocNkmlmegns :;4 ;7>029.

Fukfnt-Jmur`ml, E., ol` D. Hmrglnh. :2??. Pm wfot nxtnlt `m Nxkfolan Zotns ol`tfngr Ymcotgcgty oiinkt Pro`n= MNK@ Pro`n Rmcgky Ropnrs Lm.??7. Rorgs4 [email protected] ot4 fttp4//`x.`mg.mra/?2.?161/>ha;sce1j6fa-nl.

Fueencs, @., D. Gsfgg, ol` H.-E. Wg.:22?. Pfn Loturn ol` Armwtf mi Ynrtgkoc[pnkgocgzotgml gl Qmrc` Pro`n. Dmurloc mi Gltnrlotgmloc Nkmlmegks >0(?)41> 79.

GEI. ?760. Nxkfolan Zotn Ymcotgcgty ol` Qmrc` Pro`n. GEI Mkkosgmloc Ropnr;2.

GEI. :220. Nxkfolan Zotn Ymcotgcgty ol` Pro`n Icmws[men Lnw Nvg`nlkn. GEIMkkosgmloc Ropnr:;>.

Grwgl, @. :2??. Nsprgt `n Kurrnlky. Iglolkn ol` @nvncmpenlt06(:)(Duln).

Grwgl, @. :2?:. Pro`n Rmcgky @gsostnr4 Cnssmls irme tfn ?7;2s. Koejrgàn, EO4 EGPRrnss.

Dmflsml, Z., ol` A. Lmaunro. :2?:o. Iroaenltotgml ol` Pro`n gl Yocun O``n` mvnrImur @nko`ns, Lotgmloc Jurnou mi Nkmlmegk Znsnorkf Qmrhgla RopnrLm.?6,?69.

Dmflsml, Z., ol` A. Lmaunro. :2?:j. Okkmultgla imr Gltnren`gotns4 Rrmùktgml[forgla ol` Pro`n gl Yocun O``n`. Dmurloc mi Gltnrlotgmloc Nkmlmegks 694 ::0;9.

Dmflsml, Z., ol` A. Lmaunro. :2?:k. Rrmxgegty ol` Rrmùktgml Iroaenltotgml,Oenrgkol Nkmlmegk Znvgnw Ropnrs ol` Rrmknn`glas ?2:(;)4 021??.

Howog, E., ol` [. Pohoag. :2?:. O Rrmpmsoc imr Nxkfolan Zotn Nxkfolan Zotn RmcgkyKmmr`glotgml gl Nost Osgo. Gl4 Emlntory ol` Kurrnlky Rmcgky Eoloanenlt glOsgo, n`gtn` jy E. Howog, R. Emraol, ol` [. Pohoag. Kfnctnlfoe, ^H4 N`wor`Ncaor.

Eoshus, H. ?769. Nxkfolan Zotn Zgsh ol` ^[ Pro`n4 O snktmroc olocysgs. NkmlmegkZnvgnw1?(;)4 ?9:6.

Eottmm, O., ol` O. [ujroeolgol. :226. Kurrnlky ^l`nrvocuotgml ol` [mvnrngalQnoctf Iul`s4 O Lnw Zmcn imr tfn Qmrc` Pro`n Mraolgzotgml. Qmrhgla Ropnr0996. Qosfglatml, @K4 Qmrc` Jolh.

EkHnlzgn, E. ?777. Pfn Gepokt mi Nxkfolan Zotn Ymcotgcgty ml Gltnrlotgmloc Pro`nIcmws. Dmurloc mi Nkmlmegk [urvnys ?;4 1??29.

Eusso, E. :226. GEI [urvngccolkn mvnr Kfglos Nxkfolan Zotn Rmcgky. Gl4 @njotglaKfglos Nxkfolan Zotn Rmcgky, n`gtn` jy E. Amc`stngl ol` L. Cor`y.Qosfglatml, @K4 Rntnr A. Rntnrsml Glstgtutn imr Gltnrlotgmloc Nkmlmegks.

Lurhsn, Z. ?700. Gltnrlotgmloc Kurrnlky Nxpnrgnlkn4 Cnssmls mi tfn Gltnrwor Rnrgm`.Anlnvo, [wgtznrcol`4 Cnoaun mi Lotgmls.

Mjstinc`, E., ol` H. Zmamii. ?776. Zgsh ol` Nxkfolan Zotns, LJNZ Qmrhgla Ropnr9970.
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Rmeirnt, Z. ?767. Pfn Nkmlmegks mi Ymcultory Nxpmrt Znstroglt Oarnnenlts. Dmurlocmi Nkmlmegk [urvnys ;(;)4 ?77:?:.

Rmeirnt, Z. ?77?. Pfn [nkrnt mi tfn NE['s Cmlanvgty. Dmurloc mi Kmeeml Eorhnt[tu`gns :74 9:;;;.

Rmeirnt, Z. :2??. Znagmlocgse gl Nost Osgo4 Qfy Fos gt Icmurgsfn` [glkn :222 ol`Fmw Ior Qgcc gt Am= [glaopmrn4 Qmrc` [kgnltgigk Rujcgsfgla Kmepoly.

Rmltglns, Y. :2?:. Fmw ^sniuc gs ol Osgol Kurrnlky ^lgt (OK^) Gl`nx imr [urvngccolkngl Nost Osgo= ^lpujcgsfn` popnr. Osgol @nvncmpenlt Jolh Glstgtutn, Pmhym.

Rmltglns, Y.,, ol` Z. Zodol. :2??. Imrngal Nxkfolan Eorhnt Gltnrvnltgml ol` ZnsnrvnOkkueucotgml gl Nenragla Osgo4 Gs tfnrn Nvg`nlkn mi Inor mi Opprnkgotgml=Nkmlmegks Cnttnrs ???4 :>:>>.

Rmltglns, Y., ol` Z. [grnaor. :2?:o. Inor mi Opprnkgotgml gl Nost ol` [mutfNost Osgo4Pfn Zmcn mi tfn Kfglnsn Znlegljg. Dmurloc mi Osgol Nkmlmegks :;(0)4 ;:0;0.

Rmltglns, Y., ol` Z. [grnaor (:2?:j)4 Nxkfolan Zotn Osyeentry ol` IcnxgjcnNxkfolan Zotns ul`nr Glicotgml Porantgla Znagens4 Nvg`nlkn irme imur Nostol` [mutfNost Osgol Nkmlmegns. Znvgnw mi Gltnrlotgmloc Nkmlmegks :2(>)467;726.

Zodol, Z. :2??. Eoloanenlt mi Nxkfolan Zotn Znagens gl Nenragla Osgo. O@JGQmrhgla Ropnr;::. Pmhym4 Osgol @nvncmpenlt Jolh Glstgtutn.

[mur`gl, R., ol` Z. Rmeirnt. :2?:. Pro`n Iokgcgtotgml4 @niglgla, Enosurgla, Nxpcoglglaol` Znùkgla tfn Kmst mi Gltnrlotgmloc Pro`n. Kfnctnlfoe ^H4 N`wor` Ncaor.

[toganr, Z., ol` O. [yhns. :227. Kurrnlky Eolgpucotgml' ol` Qmrc` Pro`n4 O koutgml.YmxN^.mra. ;2 Doluory.

[toganr, Z., ol` O. [yhns. :2?2. Kurrnlky Eolgpucotgml ol` Qmrc` Pro`n. Qmrc`Pro`n Znvgnw7(0)4 >6;9:1.

[ujroeolgol, O. :2??. Znlegljg Zucns4 Pfn Kml`gtgmloc Geeglnlkn mi tfn ZnsnrvnKurrnlky Prolsgtgml. Rntnrsml Glstgtutn imr Gltnrlotgmloc Nkmlmegks QmrhglaRopnr???0

Poacgmlg, @. :22:4 Nxkfolan Zotn Ymcotgcgty os o Jorrgnr tm Pro`n4 Lnw Entfm`mcmagnsol` Znknlt Nvg`nlkns. Nkmlmegn Gltnrlotgmlocn (KNRGG) _uortnr ?-:4 ::1:>7.

Pola, F.K. :2?:. Gs Pfnrn o Kosn imr Nxkfolan Zotn Kmmr`glotgml gl Osgo= Miigkn miZnagmloc Nkmlmegk Gltnarotgml (MZNG) Rmcgky JrgniLm.0. Eolgco4 Osgol@nvncmpenlt Jolh.

Pnlrnyrm, [. :221. Ml tfn Pro`n Gepokt mi Lmegloc Nxkfolan Zotn Ymcotgcgty. Dmurlocmi @nvncmpenlt Nkmlmegks 6:4 06>>26.

Pfmrjnkhn, Q. :226. Pfn Niinkt mi Nxkfolan Zotn Ymcotgcgty ml Iroaenltotgml gl NostOsgo4 Nvg`nlkn Irme tfn Ncnktrmlgks Glùstry. Dmurloc mi tfn Dopolnsn ol`Gltnrlotgmloc Nkmlmegns ::4 >;>00.

Ymcz, ^. :2?:. Iglolkgoc Znagmlocgse gl Nost Osgo. Pfn Gltnrlotgmloc [pnktotmr4 GtocgolDmurloc mi Gltnrlotgmloc Oiiogrs 01(0)4 7>?27.

Qnjnr, [., ol` K. Qypcmsz. :227. Nxkfolan Zotns ùrgla tfn Krgsgs. Qmrc` JolhRmcgky Znsnorkf Qmrhgla Ropnr>2>7. [nptnejnr.

QPM :2??. Qmrc` Pro`n Znpmrt :2??4Pfn QPM ol` Rrninrnltgoc Pro`n Oarnnenlts4

Irme Km-nxgstnlkn tm Kmfnrnlkn. Anlnvo4 Qmrc` Pro`n Mraolgzotgml.
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