EW2_wk1_D2-1

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JORDAN WATER DEMAND MANAGEMENT STUDY

Water demand management in Mediterranean

countries: Thinking outside the water box!

Jordan case study

Diagnostic Report - Final

Prepared for

French Agency of Development (AFD)

March 2011

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents................................................................................................................ 2

List of Tables ....................................................................................................................... 5

List of Figures ...................................................................................................................... 8

List of Abbreviations ......................................................................................................... 11

Executive Summary........................................................................................................... 12

1 Background ............................................................................................................... 21

2 Objective and Scope of the Study............................................................................. 22

3 Current Water Situation ........................................................................................... 23

3.1 Current Water Resources................................................................................... 23

3.1.1 Surface water .............................................................................................. 23

3.1.2 Groundwater............................................................................................... 26

3.1.3 Treated wastewater.................................................................................... 30

3.1.4 Summary of water resources in Jordan ...................................................... 32

3.2 Current Water Uses and Demands .................................................................... 33

3.2.1 Domestic Sector .......................................................................................... 33

3.2.2 Touristic Sector ........................................................................................... 36

3.2.3 Agricultural Sector ...................................................................................... 37

3.2.4 Industrial Sector.......................................................................................... 41

3.2.5 Natural Sector ............................................................................................. 44

3.2.5.1 The Dead Sea ....................................................................................... 44

3.2.5.2 The Azraq oasis .................................................................................... 45

3.2.5.3 Wadi Mujeb ......................................................................................... 46

3.2.5.4 Wadi Wala ........................................................................................... 46

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3.2.5.5 Summary of natural demand............................................................... 46

3.2.6 Summary of projected demands for Jordan............................................... 47

3.2.7 Summary of sources, projected demands and deficit for Jordan till the year

2025 48

3.3 Strategies, Policies and Legislations................................................................... 50

3.4 Constraints on Implementing Water Policy and Strategies ............................... 58

4 Future Trends in Water resources and Demand ...................................................... 64

4.1 Water Resources ................................................................................................ 64

4.1.1 Future Water Availability ............................................................................ 64

4.1.2 Polluted Water Resources and Future Trends............................................ 71

4.2 Water Demand................................................................................................... 75

4.2.1 Assessment of the Factors Affecting Water Demand................................. 75

4.2.1.1 Domestic Sector................................................................................... 75

4.2.1.2 Industrial Sector................................................................................... 87

4.2.1.3 Tourism Sector..................................................................................... 90

4.2.1.4 Agricultural sector ............................................................................... 91

4.2.2 Evaluation of Future Water Demand........................................................ 104

4.2.2.1 Domestic water demand forecasting ................................................ 104

4.2.2.2 Industrial water demand forecasting ................................................ 106

4.2.2.3 Tourist water demand forecasting .................................................... 106

4.2.2.4 Agricultural water demand forecasting............................................. 107

4.3 Climate Change Impact on Water Resources................................................... 107

4.3.1 Introduction .............................................................................................. 108

4.3.2 Climate change, water resources and risk................................................ 110

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4.3.3 Climatic Trend in Jordanian watersheds................................................... 112

4.3.4 Projected Climate Change in Jordanian Watersheds ............................... 112

4.3.5 Climate Change Impacts on Surface Water Resources of Jordan............. 115

4.3.6 Climate Change Impact on Groundwater Resources of Jordan................ 117

4.3.7 Conclusion and Recommendations .......................................................... 120

5 Assessment of Existing Programs ........................................................................... 121

5.1 Decentralization/Corporatization of Water and Sanitation Services .............. 121

5.1.1 Case Description ....................................................................................... 121

5.1.2 Cost effectiveness ..................................................................................... 125

5.2 Participatory Irrigation Management (PIM) .................................................... 127

5.2.1 Case description........................................................................................ 127

5.2.2 Cost effectiveness analysis ....................................................................... 128

5.2.3 Conclusions ............................................................................................... 131

6 List of References.................................................................................................... 133

7 Appendices.............................................................................................................. 138

7.1 Appendix I: Cost effective analysis................................................................... 139

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List of Tables

Table 1: Long term average surface runoff in MCM for the different surface catchments in

Jordan................................................................................................................................ 24

Table 2: Groundwater basins in Jordan and their safe yields (BGR, 2004) ...................... 27

Table 3: Domestic water supply for the different governorates in Jordan for the years

2000 till 2008 in MCM....................................................................................................... 34

Table 4: Population growth rates for Jordan.................................................................... 34

Table 5: Per capita water demand (MWI, 2008) .............................................................. 35

Table 6: Projected domestic water demands in MCM for the different governorates in

Jordan................................................................................................................................ 35

Table 7: Historical touristic water use per governorate in MCM ..................................... 36

Table 8: Projected touristic water demands per governorate in MCM (including losses

and landscaping) ............................................................................................................... 37

Table 9: Projected irrigated areas in the JRV and in the uplands in ha (NWMP, 2004) ... 38

Table 10: Summary of irrigation water use and sources in the JRV and in the Uplands in

MCM (NWMP, 2004)......................................................................................................... 39

Table 11: Summary of irrigation water use and sources in MCM for 2003-2009 ............ 40

Table 12: Irrigation water use and projected irrigation water demand per governorate

till the year 2025 (NWMP, 2004) in MCM ........................................................................ 40

Table 13: Industrial water consumption for certain big industries in Jordan (NWMP,

2004) ................................................................................................................................. 42

Table 14: Industrial water use and water resources for 2006-2009 in MCM .................. 42

Table 15: Projected industrial demand regular growth rate (MWI, 2004)..................... 43

Table 16: Industrial water use and projected industrial demand per governorate in MCM

till the year 2025 (NWMP, 2004) ...................................................................................... 43

Table 17: Historical annual water supplied to Azraq Oasis .............................................. 45

Table 18: Summary of natural demand for Jordan........................................................... 47

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Table 19: Projected total demands for Jordan for all uses excluding natural demand in

MCM.................................................................................................................................. 49

Table 20: Summary of projected sources, demands and deficit for Jordan till the year

2025 excluding natural demand and excluding RSDSC in MCM....................................... 49


2025 excluding natural demand and including RSDSC in MCM ....................................... 49

Table 22: Existing planning, strategies, policies and legislations ..................................... 54

Table 23: JRSP phasing schedule and water flows............................................................ 65

Table 24: Future water resources in Jordan (make it as graph as there is incremental

increase annually for some sources) ................................................................................ 70

Table 25: Summary of factors affecting domestic water demand ................................... 86

Table 26: Summary statistics for the hotels nights, rooms, and arrivals in 2009............. 90

Table 27: Representative Net Tourist Demand (excluding physical losses) ..................... 90

Table 28: Change in Irrigation water requirement according to irrigation and cultivation

technologies in relation to standard water requirement................................................. 92

Table 29: On-farm water irrigation efficiency in Central Jordan Valley ........................... 92

Table 30: Field irrigation efficiency in Central Jordan Valley for citrus and vegetables... 93

Table 31: Distribution of Irrigation Technology in Jordan Valley and Highland in Jordan 93

Table 32: Irrigation water tariff structure in Jordan Valley ............................................ 100

Table 33: Groundwater tariff structure .......................................................................... 100

Table 34: Relationship of total billed water for domestic sector as a function of Average

annual Income of household member, % of Non-Residential water billed to total water

billed and Water supply .................................................................................................. 105

Table 35: Regression parameters of industrial water demand and industrial production

......................................................................................................................................... 106

Table 36: Impact of climate change on freshwater resources (IPCC, 2007d) ................ 110

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Table 37: Statistical adjustment for difference between 2xCO2 and current (1xCO2) as

estimated Hadley and MPI models for Zarqa River basin. ............................................. 114

Table 38: Projected change in annual surface runoff in Jordan ..................................... 117

Table 39: Projected change in groundwater recharge in Jordan ................................... 120

Table 40: PSP main initiatives in the Jordanian water sector......................................... 122

Table 41: Cost effectiveness analysis inputs................................................................... 126

Table 42: Cost effectiveness analysis results .................................................................. 126

Table 43: Number of greenhouses in selected pilot areas of the Jordan Valley.. 132

Table 44: Model-based estimations of impacts from Participatory Irrigation Management (case study from the southern Jordan Valley) ................................ 132

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List of Figures

Figure 1: Hydrographic map of Jordan ............................................................................. 26

Figure 2: Groundwater basins in Jordan and their estimated safe yields, (BGR, 2004)....... 28

Figure 3: Surface and groundwater basins in Jordan ....................................................... 29

Figure 4: Safe Yield and over abstraction from the renewable groundwater basins in

2009 .................................................................................................................................. 30

Figure 5: Estimated effluent volume from As Samra WWTP till the year 2025 taking into

consideration the implementation of the Disi project ..................................................... 31

Figure 6: Estimated volume of As Samra effluent assuming the implementation of the

RSDSC project.................................................................................................................... 32

Figure 7: Summary of available fresh water resources in Jordan till the year 2025

including the RSDSC .......................................................................................................... 33

Figure 8: Domestic demand for Jordan for the years 2000 till 2025................................ 36

Figure 9: Sources of irrigation water in the JV and in the uplands between 1996 and

2002 .................................................................................................................................. 40

Figure 10: Projected irrigation water demand by governorate........................................ 41

Figure 11: Total demand projection for all uses for Jordan in MCM................................ 47

Figure 12: Water resources and demands for Jordan without implementing the RSDSC

........................................................................................................................................... 50

Figure 13: Water resources and demands in Jordan assuming the implementation of the

RSDSC project.................................................................................................................... 50

Figure 14: The Area of JVA Responsibility ........................................................................ 53

Figure 15: Historical capital investments in the municipal water and wastewater

infrastructure .................................................................................................................... 61

Figure 16: Distribution of financing sources of the capital investment of WAJ ............... 61

Figure 17: Historical debt of WAJ ..................................................................................... 62

Figure 18: Un-accountant for water ratios in Jordan’s governorates for year 2009........ 67

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Figure 19: Distribution of residential customers against quarterly water consumption for

2008 .................................................................................................................................. 68

Figure 20: Accumulative major additional future new water resource quantities .......... 70

Figure 21: Relative importance of additional future new water resources ..................... 71

Figure 22: Groundwater level and electrical conductivity in the Amman-Zarqa basin

(Source World Bank, 2009) ............................................................................................... 73

Figure 23: Population relation to total water billed for each governorates over 2001-

2009 .................................................................................................................................. 77

Figure 24: Relation between population growth the total billed water change for 2001-

2009 .................................................................................................................................. 77

Figure 25: Relation between urban population and residential water consumption for

2006 .................................................................................................................................. 79

Figure 26: Relation between urban population and water supply for 2009 except of

Aqaba ................................................................................................................................ 79

Figure 27: Relation between rural population and NRW for 2009................................... 80

Figure 28: the relation between the rural population and the range of seasonal variation

in water supply for 2009................................................................................................... 81

Figure 29: Percentage of urban population to total population in Jordan’s Governorate

over 2003-2009 (Source of data is DOS)........................................................................... 81

Figure 30: Relationship between the average household member income and total per

capita water billed ............................................................................................................ 82

Figure 31: Relation between water supply and residential water consumption excluding

Aqaba ................................................................................................................................ 83

Figure 32: Quarterly water supply per governorate for 2009 .......................................... 84

Figure 33: Quarterly variation form the average water supply per governorate for 2009

........................................................................................................................................... 84

Figure 34: Quarterly variation form the average billed water per governorate for 2009 85

Figure 35: Quarterly billed water per governorate for 2009............................................ 85

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Figure 36: Relationship between the ratio of non-residential customer to total customer

with the total per capita billed water ............................................................................... 86

Figure 37: Relationship of the industrial production and water consumption ................ 87

Figure 38: Historical water use intensity for sample of industries ................................... 88

Figure 39: Estimated water use intensity for main industry groups ................................ 89

Figure 40: Historical occupancy rate for the different hotels Agricultural sector............ 91

Figure 41: Relative Distribution of Irrigation Technology in Jordan Valley and Highland in

Jordan................................................................................................................................ 94

Figure 42: Relationship between planted area and irrigation water use in upland......... 95

Figure 43: Relationship between planted area and irrigation water use in Jordan Valley

........................................................................................................................................... 95

Figure 44: Agro-climatic zones in Jordan .......................................................................... 97

Figure 45: Typical field crops water requirement in upland and Jordan Valley............... 97

Figure 46: Typical vegetables water requirement in upland and Jordan Valley .............. 98

Figure 47: Typical fruit trees water requirement in upland and Jordan Valley................ 99

Figure 48: Surface water demand curve for irrigation ................................................... 102

Figure 49: Brackish water demand curve for irrigation.................................................. 102

Figure 50: Recycled wastewater demand cure for irrigation ......................................... 103

Figure 51: Categories for classifying crop tolerance to salinity according to the United

State Department of Agriculture Salinity Lab................................................................. 104

Figure 52: Comparison of baseline 1960-2000 average mean monthly temperature and

1× CO2 GCM scenarios for Zarqa River Basin ................................................................. 114

Figure 53: Historical Nonrevenue Water (NRW) in Jordan’s water utilities................... 123

Figure 54: NRW change over 2001-2009 in Jordan’s water utilities .............................. 124

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List of Abbreviations

RSDSC Red Sea Dead Sea Canal

MWI Ministry of Water and Irrigation

WAJ Water Authority of Jordan

NRW Non Revenue Water

JVA Jordan Valley Authority

UFW Un-Accountant for Water

MCM Million Cubic Meter

WIS Water Information System

WWTP Wastewater Treatment Plant

AZB Amman Zarqa Basin

KTD King Talal Dam

KAC King Abdulla Canal

MEMR Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources

MW Mega Watt

MoPIC Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation

NGO Non-Governmental Organization

BOT Build-Operate-Transfer

AWC Aqaba Water Company

WWTP Wastewater Treatment Plant

ADC Aqaba Development Company

PSP Private Sector Participation

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Executive Summary

Background

1. Water use and water resource management in Jordan is a result of a complex set

of interdependent factors, which range from natural and technical constraints

via conflicting needs and interests up to institutional conditions and political

agendas. Decisions and handling in water- related issues on each stakeholder

level are in fact not only an outcome of these interdependencies but constitute

by themselves systems elements with far reaching repercussions on the

aforementioned set of factors.

2. Economic assessments of impacts and consequences from changes in water

supply and demand systems face two major challenges. The first is the

simultaneous interaction of tools and policies with natural and technical

constraints on multiple layers, which requires the functional understanding of

relationships, constraints and realizable improvements. The second is the

identification, consideration and assessment of system impacts, such as

secondary impacts and intangibles, which may unfold on social, economic or

ecological levels.

Study Objectives

3. The main objective of the study is to bring economic analysis into Jordan water

policy and help prioritizing actions according to their cost-effectiveness. This

objective is achieved through the following tasks:

• Reviewing and analysing the current water policy, status of water

resources and uses, and the existing constraints on the implementation

of today’s water policy and strategies,

• Assessing the future trends in water resources, available water supply,

and water demand,

• Assessing two existing programs aiming at improving water efficiency,

• Assessing the economical value of water for different sectors and uses,

• Developing four alternative scenarios for water management and policy

in Jordan; these are business as usual, optimized efficiency, intra-sector

re-allocations and inter-sector re-allocations scenarios,

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• Carrying out an impact assessment for each scenario investigating the

environmental, social and economic impact,

• Identifying and analyzing the pre-conditions for successful

implementation of each scenario in terms of: financing; mobilization of

stakeholders; role of different authorities; institutional setup; coherence

between sector and water policies; information and knowledge.

Current Water Resources

4. Fresh water resources in Jordan consist mainly of groundwater and surface

water. Treated wastewater and brackish water are other important non

conventional resources that help bridge part of the gap between supply and

demand especially in the agricultural sector.

5. There are fifteen surface water basins in Jordan the safe yield of which varies

significantly from year to year as a result of the variation in the rainfall. The long

term average estimated sustainable extraction rate of the fifteen surface water

basins in Jordan is about 692 MCM/year which includes both base flow and flood

flow.

6. There are twelve groundwater basins in Jordan. 275 MCM per year is an

acceptable number for the safe yield of renewable groundwater resources in

Jordan. Groundwater resources in Jordan are the main source for domestic

water supply.

7. The high water demand was met by over abstracting the renewable

groundwater aquifers. Over abstraction is estimated at about 55% of the safe

yield according to the 2009 water budget.

8. Additionally, there are other non renewable groundwater basins that are

exploited to meet the growing water demand. Those are the Disi basin and

portion of the Jafer basin with a safe yield ranged from 107-110 MCM as

estimated by BGR (2004) or 143 MCM as reported by the annual water budget

published by MWI.

9. Treated wastewater plays a major role in narrowing the gap between supply and

demand in the agricultural sector in Jordan. In Jordan there are more than

twenty wastewater treatment plants distributed spatially all over Jordan.

Treated wastewater from As Samra WWTP, which was 66.5 MCM in 2009, makes

about 75% of the treated wastewater effluent in the kingdom.

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Current Water Uses and Demands

10. The domestic sector in Jordan receives water through the public water network

which is managed by the Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ). The total domestic

water use in 2009 reached about 313 MCM.

11. Domestic water demand is function of population and per capita water demand.

Domestic demand projections are made based on population projections and on

per capita water demand projections. According to the NWMP the daily

domestic water demand per capita including the physical losses will increase

from 140 liter in 2008 to 160 liter in 2025. By the year 2025 domestic water

demand for Jordan is estimated at 484.22 MCM.

12. Touristic water is supplied by WAJ through the domestic water network and is

considered as part of the domestic water supply. In general touristic water

demand makes a small percentage of the domestic water demand. Touristic

water use reached around 10 MCM in 2007 and is expected to reach 29 MCM by

year 2025.

13. Irrigated agriculture is the largest water user in Jordan. In 2002, 64% of the

annual total water use was for irrigated agriculture (NWMP, 2004). During the

same year, irrigated agriculture used 50% of the pumped groundwater for all

purposes which summed up to 216 MCM for that year which makes about 79%

of the total renewable groundwater resources in Jordan. Total irrigation water

use reached in 2009 about 508 MCM where groundwater resources formulated

half of it. Jordan’s water strategy for the year 2022 estimated the irrigation

water demand to be 1000 MCM for 2010 and beyond.

14. Industrial water demand makes a small portion of the total water demand in

Jordan. However, due to expected economic growth in the future, industrial

water demand is projected to increase. Groundwater resources are the main

source of water for industry and formulate around 90% of total industrial water

use. Industrial water use reached around 36 MCM in 2009 and industrial water

demand is expected to increase as a result of economic and industrial growths

total to about 120 MCM in 2020 according to NWMP to about 156 according to

Jordan’s Water Strategy for 2022.

15. The natural sector includes demand for the following natural reserves: The Dead

Sea, Al Azraq Oasis, Wadi Mujeb and Wadi Wala. The Natural demand is

estimated based on historical flow for the Dead Sea and Al Azraq oasis. It is

important to address that in some cases the natural water demand is not

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consumed where a significant part of it is reused again by other sectors such as

the case of Mujib and Wala Wadis. Total natural demand excluding the Dead Sea

demand is estimated at 55 MCM per year for Jordan. The natural demand is

assumed to be constant along the time horizon, as this demand is considered the

minimum amount required by nature to save these natures.

16. Water demand for Jordan for all uses excluding natural demand is projected to

grow from 1.5 billion cubic meters in 2010 to 1.7 billion cubic meter for the year

2025. By the year 2015 the deficit will be about 376 MCM despite the

implementation of the Disi project. By 2025, total available water resources will

be 1.2 billion cubic meters which mean a deficit of about 0.5 billion cubic meters.

Strategies, Policies and Legislations

17. Currently, there are around 19 effective strategies, polices and legislations

documents. Legislations include Law, By-Law and regulation. These documents

are summarized in Table 22. MWI, WAJ, and JVA are the most important

institutions responsible for enforcing and/or implementing these strategies,

polices and legislations. Many other institutions are also playing an influential

role in regulatory and/or implementation of the different functions in relation to

water polices, strategies and legislations.

18. There are many constraints that are facing the water sector in Jordan and

creating difficulties in having effective implementation of the water policies and

strategies. These constraints can be grouped into legislative and institutional

constraints, financial constraints, socio-economic constraints and technical and

physical constraints. Detailed assessment of these constraints is summarized in

section 3.4.

Future Water Availability

19. Jordan has extensively utilized most of its conventional available water

resources. Therefore, there are limited conventional water resources that can be

utilized for future, while the emphasis will be on the development of the non-

conventional water resources. Conveyance of Disi aquifer water, Red Sea Dead

Sea Water Conveyance (RSDSWC), Jordan Red Sea Project (JRSP), Other brackish

water desalination, Treated wastewater, Improve water supply efficiency,

Improve water use efficiency, better utilization of Al-Wehda Dam, and Rainwater

harvesting are all potential future water resources that will produce about 1382

MCM by year 2025. 68% of this additional water quantity will come through

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water desalination projects. Table 24 and Figure 20 summarize the additional

future new water resources.

Polluted Water Resources and Future Trends

20. In a country with a severe water scarcity such as Jordan, water quality is a key

issue that might generate pressure on the water resource and thereby reduce

the fresh water available for use. water quality is declined through different

causes of pollution that could be mainly grouped into (Bakir, 2001):

• Unsafe management of domestic wastewater: this includes disposal of

untreated or poorly treated wastewater, seepage from poorly constructed

and maintained onsite sanitation systems

• Uncontrolled disposal of industrial waste into sewers, land and water bodies

• Leaching from unsanitary solid waste landfills

• Seepage from agrochemicals (excessive use of fertilizers and pesticides)

• Over-abstraction or use of the existing water resources

21. The future trend of water quality in Jordan is dependent on Jordan’s ability to

remove or mitigate the causes of pollution. The following actions, plans,

phenomena and their expected impacts on water quality summarized below are

providing a broad outline of how the water quality in Jordan would look like in

future:

• Reduce groundwater abstraction and water mega projects: With having Disi

water by mid 2013 and potentially the RSDSC around 2020, the over-

abstraction rates are expected to decrease and reduce the stresses on the

groundwater resources. However salinity issue will be difficult to mitigate, as

it would take long time to recover groundwater basins which most likely will

be difficult to happen while saving the basin from further deterioration is the

foreseen scenario.

• Increase accessibility to wastewater network and improve effluent quality:

bacteriological contamination will be reduced but salinity will continue to be

high.

• Climate change: the reduction in rainfall quantity and the increase in

temperatures are going to increase the stresses on the water resources. The

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declining recharge rates will diminish the expected reduction in the

groundwater abstraction. Runoff quantities are expected to decrease and

thereby the contamination of surface water is expected to increase assuming

other factors do not change.

• Industrial wastewater treatment: There are plans to construct industrial

wastewater treatment plants as the case of the industrial wastewater

treatment plant in Zarqa Governorate that are leaded and managed by Zarqa

Chamber of Commerce, which will serve the industrial sector around Zarqa

River. Thus, the contamination resulted from the industrial sector is expected

to be less in future due to the use of high technology of reverse osmosis units

and enforcing the environmental rules and regulations.

22. The combined effects of all the above actions, plans and phenomena is most

likely to worsen in the medium to long term situation, and result in impacts on

human health, income and agriculture outputs.

Assessment of the Factors Affecting Water Demand

23. Water demand is influenced by several confounding factors that are varied

overtime. Variation in the influential factors makes the estimation and forecast

of water demand uncertain. And demand uncertainty is at the root of the water

supply reliability problem. The ability to assess those influencing factors with

higher levels of confidence corresponds to lower levels of uncertainty. Situations

of uncertainty in estimating water demand are translated into situations of risk

for being incorrect or inaccurate. Such risks include designing over capacity

systems and supply excess water which means extra costs incurred, or the

opposite case where there is water deficit (less supply than the demand

requirement) that becomes a constraint on the economic activities.

24. Domestic Sector: Seven factors were assessed in terms of their influence on the

domestic water demand. Pollution growth, household income, continuity of

water supply (water supply) and level of economic activities have the highest

impact on the domestic water demand and are expected to change in future.

Water price was found to have low level of influence while the distribution of

urban and rural population has moderate influence on domestic water demand.

Seasonal variation has significant impact on domestic water demand in term of

demand fluctuation during the year but on the overall annual demand. Daily Per

capita domestic water demand measured as the total billed water is forecasted

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using Equation 1 and annual cubic meter domestic water demand is estimated

using Equation 2.

25. Industrial Sector: production capacity and Technology ratio between water and

production volume are the key factors affecting the industrial water demand.

Each type of industry has its water requirement. The water use intensity

parameter is used to express the technology ration between water and

production volume, which is estimated by dividing the quantity of water use by

the production volume expressed in JDs. Industrial water demand can be best

forecasted if industrial production and water use intensity data is available for

each industry group using Equation 3. If only gross industrial production is

available then industrial water demand can be forecasted using Equation 4.

26. Tourism Sector:. Touristic water demand is a function of the water consumption

per hotel bed occupied which is also a function of the hotel classification and

location, water consumption per hotel bed not occupied and number of tourists.

Based on these factors, touristic water demand is best to be forecasted using

Equation 5.

27. Agricultural Sector: factors affecting agricultural water demand that can be

grouped into type of irrigation and cultivation technologies which has an

influence on the irrigation water requirement and irrigation water efficiency,

agricultural area represented by the planted area, cropping pattern and climatic

zone, water availability for irrigation which considered as constraint factor that

limits the irrigated lands, and water quality. Water prices factor found to have

low impact on the irrigation water demand as long as their low levels are kept.

Even doubling the irrigation water tariff is not expected to change the demand

on the irrigation water. Equation 6 is developed to estimate agricultural water

demand.

Climate Change Impact on Water Resources

28. Climate change is among the global environmental issues that has received most

attention across nearly all domains (political, media, scientific, and civil society).

Although Jordan does not contribute more than 0.1% to the causes of global

climate change, its effects on the country will be very severe.

29. The percent changes of annual mean runoff as a function of temperature and

precipitation changes are shown in Table 38. The largest change in annual runoff

in ZRW (reduced by 60% of the current level) occurred when combining a +3.5oC

with a –20% change in precipitation.

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30. Climate change could affect groundwater resources by affecting recharge,

pumping, natural discharge, and saline intrusion. Some of these effects are

direct, and some are indirect. The potential sensitivity of aquifer recharge to

precipitation is summarized in Table 39. The increase in surface temperature and

reduction in rainfall might result in 32-57.5 percent reduction in recharge in an

aquifer located in Jordan.

31. Climate change will affect water scarcity and sustainable supply. It will:

• Increase water shortages due to changes in precipitation patterns and

intensity. In particular, Jordan is expected to become substantially drier.

Reduced precipitation in some arid regions could trigger exponentially

larger drops in groundwater tables.

• Increase the vulnerability of ecosystems due to temperature increases,

changes in precipitation patterns, frequent severe weather events, and

prolonged droughts. These factors, in turn, will further diminish the

ability of natural systems to filter water and create buffers to flooding.

• Affect the capacity and reliability of water supply infrastructure due to

flooding, and extreme weather. Most existing water treatment plants and

distribution systems were not built to withstand expected increased

frequency of severe weather due to climate change. Current

infrastructure often does not have the capacity to fully capture this larger

volume of water, and therefore will be inadequate to meet water

demands in times of sustained drought.

Assessment of Existing Programs

32. Decentralization/Corporatization of Water and Sanitation Services: Jordan is

considered a leading country among the southern Mediterranean countries in

Private Sector Participation (PSP) and corporatization in the water sector, with

the aim of decentralizing the water utilities and improving efficiency. The

reduction in water losses and cost reduction are key indicators used to measure

the impact of corporatization. The cost effectiveness analysis is carried out based

on the benefit accrued from reducing water losses (incremental water saving)

and annual cost of corporatization project (initial cost distributed on 5 years at

10% discount). The results of the assessment are presented in Table 42. The

assessment showed that 2 out of the 5 corporatization initiatives are cost

effective. The results showed that establishing water companies is the most cost

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effective then other forms. IRR for Miyahuna Company is considered high

because the corporatization project cost is relatively small to its size of

operation.

33. Participatory Irrigation Management (PIM): Participatory Irrigation Management,

PIM, is an important approach to improve the management efficiency of water

resources, water conveyance and its use. Such improvements bring about

savings in water use, reduce losses, boost productivity per unit water flow, and

reduce the cost of production. To assess the improvement of water services

under the WUA format four indicators are identified. These are: (a) the

percentage of operational water meters and (b) the joint control of water

consumption by farmers and the JVA, (c) the number of farm units where water

consumption deviates from target volumes, and, (d) the recurrence of repair and

maintenance incidents in the pressurized water conveyance system per year.

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1 Background

Water use and water resource management in Jordan is, as in most countries in the dry

areas of the Mediterranean, a result of a complex set of interdependent factors, which

range from natural and technical constraints via conflicting needs and interests up to

institutional conditions and political agendas. Decisions and handling in water- related

issues on each stakeholder level are in fact not only an outcome of these

interdependencies but constitute by themselves systems elements with far reaching

repercussions on the aforementioned set of factors (Salman et al., 2006).

The fact, that existing sources of water in Jordan are hardly sufficient to cover existing

demands from different water consuming sectors - including explicitly water demands

of nature - and will be even less so in the future, requires systematic adjustments of the

current situation in water demand management. Main-stream adjustments in the past

helped to cope with scarcity situations in Jordan's past, but are not likely to provide

sustainable overall solutions for the future. Major steps in these adjustments comprised

• Substantial investments in water catchment and transportation infrastructure, as

e.g. the construction of the Ghor Canal project and its attached network of dams

and pipelines since 1959,

• The centralization of water services by the foundation of the Ministry of Water

and Irrigation (MWI) in 1988 and

• Privatisation efforts of water and sanitation services under the auspices of the

Project Management Unit (PMU) within the Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ)

since the latter part of the 1990s.

The requested sustainable overall solutions will thus have to be found by harmonizing

object-oriented changes in more than one of the elements that determine the

distribution and use of water. However, these changes will come only at costs for

investments, transition processes and probably compensations for the disadvantaged in

water re-distribution schemes. Economic reflections will thus play a prominent role in

any selection and combination of feasible tools and policies towards the achievement of

a robust balance between water demand from different sectors and the sustainable

water supply from available sources.

Economic assessments of impacts and consequences from changes in water supply and

demand systems face two major challenges. The first is the simultaneous interaction of

tools and policies with natural and technical constraints on multiple layers, which

22

requires the functional understanding of relationships, constraints and realizable

improvements. The second is the identification, consideration and assessment of system

impacts, such as secondary impacts and intangibles, which may unfold on social,

economic or ecological levels.

Both challenges demand for holistic approaches in economic analyses, which go beyond

the partial analysis of costs and benefits of a specific action. Thereby, an additional

precondition for the socially acceptable enforcement of such changes is the

understanding of the assessment process and the compliance by those layers of the

society, who are directly or indirectly affected by the consequences.

2 Objective and Scope of the Study

The main objective of the study is to bring economic analysis into Jordan water policy

and help prioritizing actions according to their cost-effectiveness. This objective is

achieved through the following tasks:

1. Reviewing and analysing the current water policy, status of water resources and

uses, and the existing constraints on the implementation of today’s water policy

and strategies,

2. Assessing the future trends in water resources, available water supply, and water

demand,

3. Assessing two existing programs aiming at improving water efficiency,

4. Assessing the economical value of water for different sectors and uses,

5. Developing four alternative scenarios for water management and policy in

Jordan; these are business as usual, optimized efficiency, intra-sector re-

allocations and inter-sector re-allocations scenarios,

6. Carrying out an impact assessment for each scenario investigating the

environmental, social and economic impact,

7. Identifying and analyzing the pre-conditions for successful implementation of

each scenario in terms of: financing; mobilization of stakeholders; role of

different authorities; institutional setup; coherence between sector and water

policies; information and knowledge.

23

In addition, the study tackles a wide range of issues throughout the analysis including

pollution, climate change, water balances and economic analyses, participation, and

addressing uncertainty.

3 Current Water Situation

3.1 Current Water Resources

Fresh water resources in Jordan consist mainly of groundwater and surface water.

Treated wastewater and brackish water are other important non conventional resources

that help bridge part of the gap between supply and demand especially in the

agricultural sector. Below is a description of the different available water resources in

Jordan.

3.1.1 Surface water

There are fifteen surface water basins in Jordan the safe yield of which varies

significantly from year to year as a result of the variation in the rainfall. The long term

average estimated sustainable extraction rate of the fifteen surface water basins in

Jordan is about 692 MCM/year which includes both base flow and flood flow. Table 1

shows the long term average surface runoff in MCM for the fifteen surface water basins

in Jordan.

The two main surface water courses in Jordan are Zarqa River and Yarmouk River.

Yarmouk River drains the basaltic plateaus of the Hauran in Syria, an area of fair rainfall

and strong runoff. Yarmouk River is the largest tributary to Jordan River downstream of

Lake Tiberias. Much of the Yarmouk River water is diverted and used before it reaches

Jordan to satisfy municipal, agricultural and industrial needs. Yarmouk River watershed

lies in the Jordan Highlands, with its eastern headwaters extending to an area of about

1,800 m above sea level, where average annual rainfall is about 250 mm. The northern

headwaters drain areas bordering Mount Hermon (Jabel El Sheik), where average

annual precipitation exceeds 1,000 mm. However, the average annual precipitation

over the entire watershed is about 423 mm and potential evaporation is from 1,600 to

2,300 mm per year.

Typical monthly flows of Yarmouk River at Adasiyia are between 4 and 5 MCM during

the dry season and between 17 and 40 MCM during winter, (Multicultural working

group 1998). About 75 MCM per year of Yarmouk River water are diverted to KAC, 40

MCM of which are pumped to Zai water treatment plant which supplies west Amman.

The remaining 35 MCM are used for irrigation in the Jordan valley. The construction of

24

the unity dam at Yarmouk River was finished late in the year 2006. The dam is designed

to store 110 MCM, 30 MCM of which is dead storage. As a result of the fact that Jordan

is the downstream party, the water stored behind the dam in the last two years was

negligible compared to its storage capacity.

Zarqa River is the second largest tributary to Jordan River. Zarqa River watershed is the

most populated and industrialized area in Jordan. The catchment area of the Zarqa

River watershed is 3900 km2. The area of Zarqa River watershed has two main branches

which are the Amman–Zarqa draining the higher rainfall areas of the Eastern

Escarpment of the Jordan Rift Valley and parts of the Jordan highland, and the Wadi

Dhuliel draining the more arid areas of the Jordan Highland and Plateau. The mean

rainfall for the watershed is 273 mm, and the median annual stream flow is 63.3 MCM

(Multicultural working group 1998).

As-Samra Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) effluent which is the largest WWTP in

Jordan is discharged to the Zarqa River in addition to the effluent from other three

WWTPs which are Abu-Nsair WWTP, Jarash WWTP, and Baqqa WWTP. However, the

effluent from these three WWTPs is negligible compared to that of As Samra. Zarqa

River water is used for restricted irrigation within Amman Zarqa Basin (AZB) upstream of

King Talal Dam (KTD) and for unrestricted irrigation downstream of the dam in the

Jordan Valley after mixing with King Abdulla Canal (KAC) water which comes from

Yarmouk River. Zarqa River is perennial downstream of As-Samra WWTP and is

intermittent upstream of As-Samra WWTP. Typical monthly flows of 2 to 3 MCM during

the summer and 5 to more than 8 MCM during the winter were observed (Multicultural

working group 1998). Table 1 lists the surface catchments in Jordan along with their

long term average annual flow and Figure 1 shows the path of Wadis in Jordan

Table 1: Long term average surface runoff in MCM for the different surface catchments

in Jordan

Base Flow Flood Flow Total Flow Surface Water Basin

(MCM/year) (MCM/year) (MCM/year)

Yarmouk River (at Adasiya) 105 155 260

Jordan River Valley 19.3 2.4 21.7

North Rift Side Wadis 36.1 13.9 50

South Rift Side Wadis 24.8 7.7 32.5

Zarqa River 33.5 25.7 59.2

Dead Sea Side Wadis 54 7.2 61.2

25

Wadi Mujib 38.1 45.5 83.6

Wadi Hasa 27.4 9 36.4

Wadi Araba North 15.6 2.6 18.2

Wadi Araba South 2.4 3.2 5.6

Southern Desert 0 2.2 2.2

Azraq 0.6 26.8 27.4

Sirhan 0 10 10

Hammad 0 13 13

Jafer 1.9 10 11.9

Total 358.7 334.2 692.9

Source: MWI files, and MEDITATE Project progress report (2004)

26

Figure 1: Hydrographic map of Jordan

3.1.2 Groundwater

There are twelve groundwater basins in Jordan. Table 2 lists these basins along with

their long term average safe yield. Table 2 shows that the total renewable yield of

groundwater basins in Jordan is estimated between 231 and 281 MCM per year. 275

MCM per year is an acceptable number for the safe yield of renewable groundwater

resources in Jordan. Groundwater resources in Jordan are the main source for domestic

water supply. Almost all Jordan receive water for domestic use from groundwater

sources except west Amman where the source of its water for domestic use is King

Abdulla Canal which receives its water from Yarmouk River, Mukheiba wells in addition

27

to Taiberia Lake. Due to the growing water demand, almost all groundwater resources

in Jordan are over exploited which led to the deterioration of their qualities. Figure 2

shows the different groundwater basins in Jordan with their safe yields and actual

abstractions for the year 2009 given in the white box. Figure 3 shows the spatial

distribution of the surface water catchments and their relative position to the

groundwater basins.

The high water demand was met by over abstracting the renewable groundwater

aquifers. Over abstraction is estimated at about 55% of the safe yield according to the

2009 water budget. Figure 4 illustrates the safe yield and the 2009 levels of over

abstraction for Jordan’s renewable groundwater basins.

Additionally, there are other non renewable groundwater basins that are exploited to

meet the growing water demand. Those are the Disi basin and portion of the Jafer basin

with a safe yield ranged from 107-110 MCM as estimated by BGR (2004) or 143 MCM as

reported by the annual water budget published by MWI.

Table 2: Groundwater basins in Jordan and their safe yields (BGR, 2004)

Basin Safe yield MCM

1. Yarmouk 30-35

2. Amman Zarqa 60-70

3. Jordan Rift Side wadis 28-32

4. Jordan Valley 15-20

5. Dead Sea 40-50

6. Azraq basin 30-35

7. Hammad basin 12-16

8. Wadi Araba North 5-7

9. Wadi Araba south 4-6

10. Sirhan 7-10

Total renewable 231-281

11. Jafer 7-10

12. DISI 100

Total Non renewable 107-110

28

Figure 2: Groundwater basins in Jordan and their estimated safe yields, (BGR, 2004)

29

Figure 3: Surface and groundwater basins in Jordan

30

Figure 4: Safe Yield and over abstraction from the renewable groundwater basins in

2009

3.1.3 Treated wastewater

Treated wastewater plays a major role in narrowing the gap between supply and

demand in the agricultural sector in Jordan. In Jordan there are more than twenty

wastewater treatment plants distributed spatially all over Jordan. However, the largest

one which treats a big portion of the wastewater generated in the largest two cities in

Jordan which are Amman and Zarqa is As Samra WWTP. The effluent of As Samra

WWTP for the year 2009 was 66.5MCM. As mentioned earlier, the effluent of As Samra

WWTP is discharged to Zarqa River where it is used for restricted irrigation upstream of

King Talal Dam (KTD) and for unrestricted irrigation downstream of KTD after mixing

with its water.

Treated wastewater from As Samra WWTP makes about 75% of the treated wastewater

effluent in the kingdom. Figure 5 shows the volume of the treated effluent from As

Samara WWTP for the period 2000 to till 2025. Volumes shown till the year 2009 are

based on measurements while volumes between 2010 and 2050 are projected based on

the National Water Master Plan WEAP. The sudden increase in the volume between

2009 and 2010 is due to the fact that the projected water demand for the years 2010

and beyond is higher than the actual water use for the year 2009. The sudden increase

31

in wastewater volume between 2013 and 2014 is due to the implementation of the DISI

project in 2013. The projected treated wastewater volume by the year 2025 taking into

consideration the DISI project is about 179 MCM. Figure 6 shows the projected

wastewater volume from As Samra WWTP till the year 2025 assuming the

implementation of the Red Sea Dead Sea Canal (RSDSC) project by the year 2025. The

projected wastewater volumes are based on the result that about 99.4 MCM of the

RSDSC water will be needed for Amman and Zarqa governorates by the year 2025 This

finding is based on giving the preference to the RSDSC water over the other

groundwater resources such as Amman Zarqa basin, groundwater resources from

southern Jordan and groundwater resources from Al Azraq basin.

Figure 5: Estimated effluent volume from As Samra WWTP till the year 2025 taking

into consideration the implementation of the Disi project

32

Figure 6: Estimated volume of As Samra effluent assuming the implementation of the

RSDSC project

3.1.4 Summary of water resources in Jordan

Figure 7 below summarizes the available fresh water resources in Jordan till the year

2025. This summary assumes an average surface water availability of 693 MCM which

can in reality vary from year to year depending on the hydrological conditions. It also

assumes that groundwater resources average is 275 MCM which again can vary from

year to year as a consequence to the variation in the hydrological conditions.

100 MCM from the Disi aquifer will be available by the year 2013 according to MWI

plans. However for the RSDSC project it was found out that 99 MCM are needed by the

year 2025 based on the estimated demand for Amman and Zarqa.

33

Figure 7: Summary of available fresh water resources in Jordan till the year 2025

including the RSDSC

3.2 Current Water Uses and Demands

This section aims to provide a description of the current water use and approached used

to estimate water demand for each sector mainly derived from NWMP. Water demands

in Jordan are estimated at five groups:

1. Domestic demand,

2. Touristic

3. Agricultural demand

4. Industrial demand, and

5. Natural demand.

3.2.1 Domestic Sector

The domestic sector in Jordan receives water through the public water network which is

managed by the Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ). In fact, the water supplied to the

domestic sector is used by different types of customers including residents, small

industries, commercial, governmental institutions, and tourists. Actual domestic water

supply for the different governorates in Jordan between 2000 and 2009 is given in Table

3. These quantities include water losses both physical leaks and administrative losses.

34

Table 3: Domestic water supply for the different governorates in Jordan for the years

2000 till 2008 in MCM

Governorate 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Amman 91.3 93.6 94.1 106.3 118.5 119.9 122.0 124.8 128.7 129.0 Zarqa 31.8 32.7 34.4 37.0 37.7 38.4 40.3 44.6 44.8 46.7 Mafraq 30.1 18.9 16.9 17.3 16.9 17.5 17.6 18.2 18.6 20.3 Jarash 9.2 30.9 4.1 3.8 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.6 4.6 Ajloun 2.4 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.9 Balqa 4.2 3.1 18.3 18.1 20.2 21.3 21.2 21.7 21.4 23.1 Irbid 18.5 15.2 31.4 31.6 32.8 34.4 34.2 36.0 39.2 37.0 Tafila 16.3 5.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.6 4.9 Karak 3.2 9.4 11.2 10.2 11.0 11.0 11.5 12.9 13.7 14.6 Ma'an 5.6 2.6 8.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.5 8.5 9.3 9.1 Aqaba 15.2 7.7 14.7 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.3 15.4 14.3 12.4

Madaba 7.5 15.0 6.1 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.9 7.4 7.8 Total 235.4 239.0 245.6 258.7 275.8 282.0 286.3 300.9 310.4 313.4

Source: MWI files and annual reports

Domestic water demand is function of population and per capita water demand.

Domestic demand projections are made based on population projections and on per

capita water demand projections. For the purpose of this study, population projections

are based on the population data available at the Water Information System (WIS) at

the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI) and population growth rates published in the

Jordan’s water strategy. Population growth rates published in the Jordan’s water

strategy are given in Table 4. Population growth rates for the years 2000 and 2004 are

taken from WIS. Population growth rate for the year 2025 is assumed similar to the

growth rate for the year 2022.

Table 4: Population growth rates for Jordan

Year Population growth rate %

2000 2.8

2004 2.8

2008 2.2

2010 2.2

2015 2.2

2020 2.0

2022 1.9

2025 1.9

Source: DOS

35

Per capita water demand for the years 2008 till the year 2022 are those published in the

Jordan’s water strategy. Water uses before 2008 are based on actual pumped water

which are taken from MWI files. Per capita water demand for the years 2008 till 2025

are given in Table 5. The demand values shown in the table below include the

administrative losses but do not include the physical losses.

Table 5: Per capita water demand (MWI, 2008)

Year Water demand,

lit./c/d

Water demand,

m3/c/yr

2008 140 51.1

2010 145 52.9

2015 158 57.7

2020 153 55.8

2022 160 58.4

2025 160 58.4

Projected domestic demands for the different governorates are given in Table 6. Table

6 shows that by the year 2025 domestic water demand for Jordan is estimated at 484.22

MCM. Figure 8 shows the growth in domestic water demand in Jordan between 2000

and 2025.

Table 6: Projected domestic water demands in MCM for the different governorates in

Jordan

Governorate 2010 2015 2020 2022 2025 Amman 127.9 155.3 166.9 181.4 182.53 Zarqa 51.5 62.5 67.2 73.0 73.47 Mafraq 14.8 18.0 19.4 21.0 21.17 Jarash 10.3 12.5 13.4 14.6 14.69 Ajloun 7.9 9.6 10.3 11.2 11.32 Balqa 22.1 26.8 28.8 31.3 31.54 Irbid 60.5 73.4 78.9 85.8 86.30 Tafila 5.5 6.7 7.2 7.8 7.86 Karak 13.6 16.6 17.8 19.3 19.46 Ma'an 6.8 8.2 8.9 9.6 9.62 Aqaba 7.7 9.3 10.0 10.9 10.90

Madaba 10.8 13.1 14.1 15.3 15.37 Total 339.3 412.2 442.9 481.4 484.22

36

Figure 8: Domestic demand for Jordan for the years 2000 till 2025

3.2.2 Touristic Sector

Touristic water is supplied by WAJ through the domestic water network and is

considered as part of the domestic water supply as mentioned earlier. In general

touristic water demand makes a small percentage of the domestic water demand.

However, the touristic sector contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is

significant. In 2002 the contribution of the touristic sector to the GDP was about 10%

according to the Department of Statistics (DOS, 2002), and 10.6% in 2009 (Kreishan,

2010). Historical touristic water uses between the years 1996 and 2001 and for the

years 2005 and 2007 are given in Table 7. Data for other years are not available and

were not reported in the MWI annual report or in the NWMP. Total touristic demand for

2007 was taken from Jordan’s water strategy.

Table 7: Historical touristic water use per governorate in MCM

Governorate 19961 19971 19981 19991 20001 20011 20051 20072

Ajloun 0 0 0 0.01 0.01 0.01

Amman 1.45 1.42 1.1 1.28 1.03 0.84 2.79

Aqaba 0.43 0.49 0.42 0.53 0.75 0.74 1.27

Balqa 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.06 0.04 1.1

Irbid 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.09 0.08 0.08

37

Jerash 0 0 0 0.01 0.01 0.01

Karak 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 0 0

Madaba 0 0 0 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.03

Mafraq 0 0 0 0.02 0.02 0.02

Ma'an 0 0 0 0.02 0.02 0.02

Tafilah 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zarqa 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.09 0.07 0.07

Others 0.33

Total 1.97 1.99 1.59 2.17 2.06 1.83 5.53 10 1 NWMP (2004),

2 Jordan’s water strategy, gross demand including losses

Projected touristic water demands till the year 2025 are given in Table 8. Projected

demands for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020 are taken from the NWMP (2004).

Demands for the years 2025 is projected based on the average demand growth rate

between 2010 and 2020. Touristic demand projections in the NWMP are based on the

number of bed units, per bed water demand and occupancy rate.

Table 8: Projected touristic water demands per governorate in MCM (including losses

and landscaping)

Governorate 2010 2015 2020 2025

Amman 3.18 3.6 4.02 4.52

Aqaba 1.76 2.24 2.92 3.76

Balqa 2.58 6.27 6.22 9.84

Madaba 2.15 3.66 6.26 11.08

Others 0.39 0.41 0.46 0.50

Total according to NWMP 10.06 16.18 19.87 29.70

Total according to Jordan’s

Water Strategy for 2022 13.00 21.00 26.00 29.00

Source: NWMP, 2004

3.2.3 Agricultural Sector

Irrigated agriculture is the largest water user in Jordan. In 2002, 64% of the annual total

water use was for irrigated agriculture (NWMP, 2004). During the same year, irrigated

agriculture used 50% of the pumped groundwater for all purposes which summed up to

216 MCM for that year which makes about 79% of the total renewable groundwater

38

resources in Jordan (NWMP, 2004). Table 9 shows irrigated areas, developed and

developable areas in the Jordan Valley between 1998 and 2020. This table shows that

there will be no growth in the irrigated areas neither in the JV nor in the uplands beyond

the year 2010. Table 10 summarizes the historical irrigation water use in the Jordan

Valley and in the uplands between 1996 and 2002 and irrigation water sources as well.

This table shows that the main irrigation water source in the Jordan Valley is surface

water followed by groundwater and treated wastewater, while in the uplands the main

water source is groundwater followed by surface water, while treated wastewater reuse

is minimal. This table also shows significant decrease in irrigation water use between

1996 and 2002 in the Jordan Valley which is partly due to improving irrigation efficiency.

It is also important to note that reduction in irrigation water use can be due to the

limited water availability, which witnessed obvious decrease during the last years as a

result of the climate change impact on the region, and due to the reallocation of fresh

water used in Jordan Valley to domestic water use mainly through Zai water system.

This system includes a water treatment plant and conveyance water system to Amman

and Balqa governorates constructed in 1998 and expanded in 2002. Changing the

cropping pattern, improving the irrigation efficiency, limiting the non-trees irrigation

and increasing the use of the treated wastewater in the Jordan Valley helped the

farmers to continue their agricultural activities. In the uplands irrigation water use

oscillated slightly around 300 MCM between 1996 and 2002. Sources of irrigation water

in the JV and in the uplands are shown graphically in Figure 9. 11 also summarized the

historical irrigation water use according to the water sources for the years 2003-2009.

Projected irrigation water demand by governorate up to the year 2020 is given in Table

12 and graphically in Figure 10. Irrigation water demand data at the governorate level

for 2025 is not available in NWMP. On the other hand, Jordan’s water strategy for the

year 2022 estimated the irrigation water demand to be 1000 MCM for 2010 and

beyond.Table 12 and Figure 10 show that irrigation water demand is not projected to

increase till the year 2020. Irrigation water demand is projected based on the irrigated

areas and on the water crop requirement. Irrigation demand is simply the summation of

the multiplication of cropped area by the crop water requirement planted in each area.

Table 9: Projected irrigated areas in the JRV and in the uplands in ha (NWMP, 2004)

Region 1998 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Uplands 59,576 59,576 59,576 59,576 59,576 59,576

JRV 25,391 39,691 42,291 42,291 42,291 42,291

Total 84,967 99,267 101,867 101,867 101,867 101,867

39

Table 10: Summary of irrigation water use and sources in the JRV and in the Uplands

in MCM (NWMP, 2004)

Region Water Resource 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Surface water 182.2 194.5 146.3 126.6 121.2 94.4 70.0

Groundwater 60.1 50.7 52.1 51.2 53.8 46.8 64.3

Treated WW 51.9 52.7 60.0 59.0 61.0 60.0 59.2 JRV

Total JRV 294.2 297.9 258.4 236.8 236.0 201.1 193.5

Surface water 67.0 70.0 79.4 72.8 88.5 86.6 87.0

Groundwater 229.6 215.5 208.3 205.2 198.5 186.4 219.1

Treated WW 7.0 8.3 11.0 11.0 11.0 13.5 11.2

Uplands

Total Uplands 303.6 293.8 298.7 289.0 298.0 286.5 317.3

Total 597.8 591.7 557.1 525.8 534.0 487.6 510.8

(a) Sources of irrigation water in the Jordan Valley

40

(b) Sources of irrigation water in the uplands

Figure 9: Sources of irrigation water in the JV and in the uplands between 1996 and

2002

Table 11: Summary of irrigation water use and sources in MCM for 2003-2009

Water Resource 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Surface water 101.163 125.308 187.75 185.084 176.366 160.50 159.877

Groundwater 278.699 251.452 254.649 245.503 244.81 236.067 245.755

Treated WW 75.396 86.422 83.545 80.3 90.97 101 102.36

Total 455.258 463.182 525.944 510.887 512.146 497.567 507.992

Source: MWI Water budget, 2009

Table 12: Irrigation water use and projected irrigation water demand per governorate

till the year 2025 (NWMP, 2004) in MCM

Governorate 1998 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ajloun 14.0 13.3 12.2 11.1 10.0

Amman 74.6 74.5 73.8 73.3 72.1

Aqaba 24.4 24.4 23.8 23.2 22.6

Aqaba_Valley 4.7 4.1 7.3 7.2 7.2

Balqa 20.3 20.1 19.4 19.2 18.4

Balqa_Valley 112.4 273.9 269.7 256.6 232.8

Irbid 20.7 20.5 19.6 19.0 18.0

41

Irbid_Valley 96.0 130.3 121.9 116.6 104.8

Jarash 33.2 32.9 30.7 29.4 26.8

Karak 38.2 37.8 35.4 34.0 31.3

Karak_Valley 27.9 27.9 33.6 33.3 32.6

Madaba 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4

Mafraq 163.8 163.8 162.3 161.3 159.6

Ma’an 106.7 106.7 106.7 101.2 98.2

Tafilah 24.9 24.4 23.4 22.5 21.0

Zarqa 133.0 133.3 130.1 126.1 122.1

Total 900.5 1093.4 1072.3 1039.7 982.7 1000a a

Taken from Jordan’s water strategy for the year 2022

Figure 10: Projected irrigation water demand by governorate

3.2.4 Industrial Sector

Industrial water demand makes a small portion of the total water demand in Jordan.

However, due to expected economic growth in the future, industrial water demand is

projected to increase. Table 13 shows industrial water use for the different big

industries in Jordan for the years 1998 and 2001. This table shows that the total

industrial demand for Jordan was about 32 MCM for the year 2001. Table 14 shows the

historical industrial water use according to the water resources. It can be noticed that

42

groundwater resources is the main source of water for industry and formulate around

90% of total industrial water use.

The industrial water demand is expected to grow in future particularly with the

Government of Jordan plans to utilize the oil shale and to generate electricity through

the nuclear power plants. On the other hand, there are some big industrial sites will

demand less water as the case of the phosphate mines in Wadi Al-Abyad and Hassa.

Table 15 illustrates the projected industrial demand regular growth rate. Table 16 shows

projected industrial demand for Jordan till the year 2020. This table shows that

industrial water demand will total to about 120 MCM as a result of economic and

industrial growths. Industrial demand projection in the NWMP was based on projecting

historical development in water use for certain industries on the future in addition to

considering what industries are planned to be implemented within the planning period.

For the purpose of this report, 4.5% annual growth in the industrial sector is assumed

beyond the year 2020. This rate is based on the historical growth rate for certain

industries based on the NWMP (MWI, 2004).

Table 13: Industrial water consumption for certain big industries in Jordan (NWMP,

2004)

1998 2001 Industry Governorate

MCM % of

Total

MCM % of

Total

Aqaba Thermal Power Station Aqaba 0.9 2.0 0.7 2.0

Jordan Phosphate Mines (Fertilizer) Aqaba 3.6 9.7 3.2 10.0

Arab Potash Company Karak 9.8 26.1 10.6 33.5

Phosphate Mines / Wadi Al-Abyad Karak 3.2 8.4 1.1 3.6

Cement Industries Mafraq, Balqa

& Ma’an

0.5 1.3 0.4 1.4

Jordan Phosphate Mines (Shediya) Ma’an 6.6 17.6 6.0 18.9

Jordan Phosphate Mines (Hassa) Tafilah 5.1 13.5 2.5 7.9

Jordan Petroleum Refinery Co. Zarqa 2.0 5.4 2.3 7.3

Al Hussein Power Station Zarqa 0.8 2.2 0.5 1.4

Others Jordan 5.0 13.4 4.3 13.6

Total Jordan 37.5 100 31.6 100

Table 14: Industrial water use and water resources for 2006-2009 in MCM

43

2006 2007 2008 2009

Groundwater 34.4 44.9 34.3 33.0

Surface water 4.0 3.5 3.9 3.1

Total 38.5 48.4 38.2 36.1

Source: MWI Water budget, 2009

Table 15: Projected industrial demand regular growth rate (MWI, 2004)

Industry 1998-

2005 (%)

2005-

2010 (%)

2010-

2015 (%)

2015-

2020 (%)

Aqaba Industries (Thermal Power & Fertilizer) 8.1 6.2 5.7 5.2

Arab Potash Company 2.0 2.5 0.0 0.0

Phosphate Mines (Wadi Al-Abyad) -15.2 -100.0 0.0 0.0

Jordan Phosphate Mines (Shediya) 2.0 10.8 4.9 -1.5

Jordan Phosphate Mines (Hassa) -3.8 -100.0 0.0 0.0

Arab White Cement Industries Co. 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Al Hussein Power Station -4.3 1.6 2.9 0.0

Jordan Petroleum Refinery Co. 2.6 9.6 0.5 0.5

Remaining Industries 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.5

Table 16: Industrial water use and projected industrial demand per governorate in

MCM till the year 2025 (NWMP, 2004)

Governorate 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ajloun - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Amman 0.84 1.21 1.50 1.87 2.33

Aqaba 3.99 10.96 13.34 16.56 21.33

Balqa 0.55 0.94 1.18 1.46 1.83

Irbid 0.17 7.97 8.02 8.10 8.19

Jerash - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Karak 12.17 17.97 29.04 42.53 56.04

Madaba 0.14 0.24 0.30 0.37 0.46

Mafraq 0.26 0.42 0.51 0.61 0.72

Ma'an 6.33 8.15 13.35 16.98 16.04

Tafilah 2.49 3.86 0.00 0.00 0.00

Zarqa 4.67 7.78 10.16 11.49 13.00

44

Total 31.64 59.51 77.40 99.97 119.94

Total future demand according to

Jordan’s water strategy for 2022 101.00 130.00 156.00 163.00

3.2.5 Natural Sector

The natural sector includes demand for the following natural reserves: The Dead Sea, Al

Azraq Oasis, Wadi Mujeb and Wadi Wala. The Natural demand is estimated based on

historical flow for the Dead Sea and Al Azraq oasis. For Mujeb and Wala wadis, natural

demand was assumed to equal the base flow. It is important to address that in some

cases the natural water demand is not consumed where a significant part of it is reused

again by other sectors such as the case of Mujib and Wala Wadis.

3.2.5.1 The Dead Sea

The Dead Sea is a closed lake that lies in the Jordan Rift Valley. The main tributary to the

Dead Sea is the Jordan River. The Dead Sea is the lowest point on earth, its current

elevation is about 422 m below sea level. Over the last several decades the Dead Sea

level has fallen at an estimated rate of about 1.0 m per year. The area of the Dead Sea

watershed is 40,650 km2. Rainfall in the Dead Sea watershed varies from high of about

1200 mm per year in the north to less than 50 mm in the southern part in the Negev.

Evaporation ranges between 1300 and 1600 mm which varies with the salinity. Most of

the inflow to the Dead Sea comes from the high rainfall Jordan River watershed in the

north and the rift valley escarpment to the east and west of the Dead Sea.

The level of the Dead Sea has been monitored continuously since 1930. The observed

decline between 1930 and 1997 was 21 m. The surface area of the Dead Sea ranged

between about 1440 km2 at its historical level of 330 m below sea level to about 670

km2 at 410 m below sea level. Historical inflow to the Dead Sea is estimated at 1.213

billion cubic meters per year (Baker and Harza 1955) which has fallen recently to about

20 to 30 MCM per year. Main reasons advanced for the decline in the Dead Sea level is

the huge reduction in the inflow from the Jordan River and the Yarmouk River. The

blame of the reduction in the inflow to the Dead Sea is thrown on Israel, Syria and

Jordan. Israel draws about 600 Million cubic meters per year from Sea of Galilee which

is the main tributary to the Jordan River to its National Water Courier. Syria also draws

huge amounts from Yarmouk River estimated at 160 MCM per year before it reaches

Jordan. Additionally and as the majority of the watershed of this basin is located in Syria,

it tapped most of the surface water upstream of the Yarmouk River through

constructing many dams and allowing for uncontrolled groundwater abstraction which

reduces the springs’ discharge. Jordan also diverts about 70 MCM per year from

Yarmouk River to King Abdulla Canal for domestic supply to west Amman and for

45

agricultural use in the Jordan Valley. So the estimated natural demand for the Dead Sea

is about 1.20 billion cubic meters per year which is the difference between the historical

inflow and the current inflow to the river. However, this natural demand is of a regional

demand not specific to Jordan. One of the main proposed solutions to restore the Dead

Sea level is the Red Sea Dead Sea Canal project which is expected to bring about 850

million cubic meter of brine to the sea.

3.2.5.2 The Azraq oasis

The Azraq oasis is a natural reserve located near the town of Azraq in the eastern desert

of Jordan. The oasis is one of the most unique ecosystems in the region. It used to be

home for hundreds of thousands of migratory birds. Al Azraq was designated as a

Ramsar site in 1977 after the government of Jordan ratified the Ramsar convention. The

Azraq oasis was fed by springs which dried up in 1992 due to the over abstraction of

groundwater. The Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ) established the Azraq Basin Water

Office to conserve the ground water in the basin and to prevent digging more wells.

Moreover, WAJ planned to pump about 1.5 MCM per year from artesian wells to the

wetland reserve to preserve what remains of the oasis. Table 17 gives actual water

pumped to the oasis by WAJ for the years 2001 till 2008. It is important to note that the

pumped water is sufficient to restore part of the oasis only. The demand to restore the

entire oasis is larger. The key to restoring the oasis is restoring the groundwater basin

by limiting the abstraction to the safe yield of the basin which is about 25 MCM which

will help elevate the groundwater level which will result in the two main springs in the

basin to start discharging water to the oasis again. Historical flow of the springs in Al

Azraq is about 10 MCM which is considered as the natural demand for the basin.

Table 17: Historical annual water supplied to Azraq Oasis

Year Quantity (m3)

2001 1,382,037

2002 1,091,033

2003 871,847

2004 804,440

2005 863,320

2006 1,144,090

2007 1,027,540

2008 727,207

46

3.2.5.3 Wadi Mujeb

Wadi Mujib is a gorge in Jordan which enters the Dead Sea at 410 meters below sea

level. The Mujib Reserve of Wadi Mujib is the lowest natural reserve in the world. It is

located in the mountainous landscape to the east of the Dead Sea, approximately 90 km

south of Amman. The 220 square kilometers reserve was created in 1987 by the Royal

Society for the Conservation of Nature and is regionally and internationally important,

particularly for the bird life that the reserve supports. It extends to the Karak and

Madaba mountains reaching 900 meters above sea level in some places. This 1,300

meter variation in elevation combined with the valley's year round water flow from

seven tributaries, means that Wadi Mujib enjoys a magnificent biodiversity that is still

being explored and documented today. Over 300 species of plants, 10 species of

carnivores and numerous species of permanent and migratory birds have been recorded

until this date in Wadi Mujeb natural reserve. Some of the remote mountains and

valleys are difficult to reach which makes them safe havens for rare species of cats,

goats and other mountainous animals. Base flow for Wadi Al Mujeb is 38 MCM which is

considered the natural demand for Wadi Al Mujeb Natural reserve.

3.2.5.4 Wadi Wala

The course of Wadi Wala runs from its headwaters south of Amman in the Jordan

Highland and Plateau at about 700 m above sea level, to its confluence with Wadi Mujib

about 3 km from the Dead Sea and over 300 m below sea level—more than 1 km lower

than the headwaters. The central and northern areas of the watershed comprise the

fertile plains around Madaba where the average annual rainfall is 300–400 mm, and the

average annual potential evaporation is about 2,200 mm. In its lower reaches, Wadi

Wala is known as Wadi Heidan. The drainage area of Wadi Wala–Heidan is about 2,000

km2 at its confluence with Wadi Mujib.

Flow of Wadi Wala is measured at Karak Road, where the drainage area is 1,800 km2.

Wadi Wala has fairly stable base flow that typically provides from 0.1 MCM per month.

3.2.5.5 Summary of natural demand

47

Table 18 summarizes the natural demand for Jordan. This table shows that the total

natural demand excluding the Dead Sea demand is estimated at 55 MCM per year for

Jordan. The natural demand is assumed to be constant along the time horizon, as this

demand is considered the minimum amount required by nature to save these natures.

48

Table 18: Summary of natural demand for Jordan

Location Demand MCM Note

Al Azraq oasis 10

Wadi Mujeb 38

Wadi Wala 6.6

Total 54.6

Jordan

Dead sea 1200 Regional demand

Total 1254.6 Regional and Jordan demand

3.2.6 Summary of projected demands for Jordan

Table 19 and Figure 11 summarize total projected demands for Jordan for the period

2010 and 2050 excluding natural demand. The table and Figure show that water

demand for Jordan for all uses excluding natural demand is projected to grow from 1.5

billion cubic meters in 2010 to 1.7 billion cubic meter for the year 2025. However taking

the natural demand of 1.25 billion cubic meter into consideration makes the total

demand 2.75 billion cubic meter in 2020 which is projected to grow to 3.50 billion cubic

meter in 2050.

Figure 11: Total demand projection for all uses for Jordan in MCM

49

3.2.7 Summary of sources, projected demands and deficit for Jordan till the year

2025

Total resources, demands and deficit till the year 2050 are summarized in Table 20 and

Table 21 and in Figure 12 and Figure 13 for two cases which are the implementation of

the Disi project which represent the business as usual scenario and the case of

implementing the Red Sea Dead Sea Canal project by the year 2025. The initial results

of the WEAP model run for Amman Zarqa Basin developed for MWI showed that by the

year 2025 about 100 MCM from the RSDSC project are needed to satisfy the growing

domestic demand for the largest two cities in Jordan which are Amman and Zarqa which

is expected to grow to 178 MCM for the year 2050 to satisfy the same demands. These

results are based on giving preference to the RSDSC water over other groundwater

resources that supply Amman and Zarqa (AZB, groundwater resources south of Jordan

and groundwater resources from Al Azraq basin). It is important to note that the results

presented here are initial results and correspond to certain conditions of supply

preference for Amman and Zarqa. More thorough scenario analysis is needed for a

better understanding of the role of the RSDSC project on bridging the gap between

supply and demand in Jordan in addition to its impact on groundwater resources in

Jordan.

Table 20 and Figure 12 show that the deficit will grow in time between total available

resources and total demand despite the implementation of the Disi project. By the year

2015 the deficit will be about 376 MCM despite the implementation of the Disi project.

The deficit will grow to about 1002 MCM for the year 2050. Taking natural demand into

consideration, the deficit will be 1.586 billion cubic meter for the year 2015 which is

expected to grow to 2.212 billion cubic meter for the year 2050. These estimates

assumes that the there is no deficit in the natural demand for Wadi Mujeb and Wadi

Wala.

Table 21 and Figure 13 show that by implementing the RSDSC project, 427 MCM are

needed by the year 2025 to overcome the deficit and 515 MCM will be needed to

overcome the deficit by the year 2030. Starting the year 2035 a deficit of 45.6 MCM will

appear despite the implementation of the RSDSC to full capacity. The deficit will grow

to about 382 MCM by the year 2050.

Taking natural demand into consideration, it is important to note that implementing the

RSDSC will provide brine water to the Dead Sea which will help reduce the deficit in the

natural demand. Assuming that the brine volume equals the desalinated water, the

deficit in the natural demand is expected to be 0.35 billion cubic meters which is the

natural demand for the Dead Sea minus the brine volume of 0.85 billion cubic meters. It

50

is also important to note that implementing the RSDSC is expected to help revive the

Azraq basin as a result of stopping or reducing pumping from Al Azraq basin to Amman

which will consequently make natural flow available for the oasis in Al Azraq.

Table 19: Projected total demands for Jordan for all uses excluding natural demand in

MCM

Demand 2010 2015 2020 2025

Domestic 339.28 412.19 442.86 510.77

Agricultural1 1000 1000 1000 1000

Industrial2 101.00 130.00 156.00 163.00

Touristic3 13.00 21.00 26.00 29.00

Total 1,453.28 1,563.19 1,624.86 1,702.77 1 No growth or decline in the agricultural demand is assumed beyond 2010

2 Jordan’s water strategy

3 Jordan’s water strategy


2025 excluding natural demand and excluding RSDSC in MCM

2010 2015 2020 2025 Surface 692.9 692.9 692.9 692.9 Ground 275 275 275 275

Disi 100 100 100 Treated WW 85.3 123.4 134.7 149.2 Total sources 1053.2 1191.3 1202.6 1217.1

Total demands 1,453.28 1,563.19 1,624.86 1,702.77 Deficit -400.04 -371.87 -422.30 -485.63


2025 excluding natural demand and including RSDSC in MCM

2010 2015 2020 2025 Surface 692.9 692.9 692.9 692.9 Ground 275 275 275 275

Disi 0 100 100 100 RSDSC 0 0 0 427 TWW 85.3 123.5 139.5 177.7 Total

resources 1053.24 1191.37 1207.39 1672.63

Total demand 1,453.28 1,563.19 1,624.86 1,702.77 Deficit -400.04 -371.82 -417.47 -30.14

51

Figure 12: Water resources and demands for Jordan without implementing the RSDSC

Figure 13: Water resources and demands in Jordan assuming the implementation of

the RSDSC project

3.3 Strategies, Policies and Legislations

Many laws were issued regarding water management since the establishment of the

Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. The first generation of laws and regulations focused on

the Jordan River Valley, and the first comprehensive law was enacted in 1959 by which

the East Ghor Canal Authority was created to manage water systems for irrigation

purposes in the Jordan Valley. Later in the same year, a separate law was created to

concern for the supply of municipal water to Jordanian inhabitants by the Central Water

52

Authority. In 1965, these two institutions were merged to form the Natural Resources

Authority. This is followed by other legislations in 1974 that created the Domestic Water

Supply Corporation, and in 1977 that created the Jordan Valley Authority (JVA)

(Wardam, 2004).

In 1983, the most comprehensive and drastic law emerged where the Water Authority

of Jordan (WAJ) was created to be responsible for all water management aspects, with

the exception of irrigation projects which remain to be under JVA. A further step was

taken in 1988 when the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI) was created and brought

under its umbrella both the Water Authority and the Jordan Valley Authority (Wardam,

2004). The first water strategy was introduced in 1997. During the same and the next

year four policies were also developed. Those are Water Utility Policy, Groundwater

Management Policy, Irrigation Water Policy, and Wastewater Management Policy.

Currently, there are around 19 effective strategies, polices and legislations documents.

Legislations include Law, By-Law and regulation. These documents are summarized in

Table 22. These documents are classified according to their type and theme. The themes

are selected to identify the functionality of the document which include institutional,

wastewater, drinking water, water utility, water sector (for the multi-purposes

documents), irrigation and groundwater. A brief description of these documents is also

provided. The documents are ranked ascending from the elder to the newer.

It can be concluded from the description above about the institutional process

development that the most important institutions responsible for enforcing and/or

implementing these strategies, polices and legislations are MWI, WAJ, and JVA. These

three institutions are described further below:

1. MWI has been responsible for developing water policy and for water master

planning, as well as administrative restructuring of the water sector. In general,

MWI is the official body responsible for the overall water supply and wastewater

system, planning and management, the formulation of national water strategies

and policies, research and development, information systems and procurement

of financial resources. In particularly, the Minister of Water and Irrigation is

responsible for coordination among the MWI, the WAJ and the JVA.

2. WAJ was established as an autonomous corporate body, with financial and

administrative independence but linked with MWI through the Minister. WAJ is

responsible for the municipal water supply and wastewater services as well as

for the overall water resources planning and monitoring, construction,

operations and maintenance. The organizational structure of the Authority is

strictly centralized. The utilities in each governorate are responsible for

53

operating and maintaining the water and wastewater systems, dealing with

subscribers’ issues and different levels of projects supervisions. Most of them

enjoy some autonomy while keeping several tasks managed centrally including

financial and human resource affairs, capital investment, water quality

monitoring and planning. Recently by establishing Aqaba Water Company,

Miyahuna Company in Amman and Yarmouk Company in the Northern

Governorates, these utilities enjoyed higher levels of autonomy than the

remaining utilities.

3. JVA was established as the Jordan Valley Commission, but received its current

name in 1977. The area of JVA’s responsibility extends from the Yarmouk River in

the North to the Qatar village in the South to the north of the Red Sea which is

shown in Figure 14. The Eastern extension of the area is limited by the 300 m

above mean sea level contour line north of the Dead Sea and the 500 m above

mean sea level contour line south of the Dead Sea. The Jordan Valley Authority

is a governmental organization responsible for the social and economic

development of the Jordan River Valley, including the development, utilization,

protection and conservation of water resources. The King Abdullah Canal

represents the backbone of the JVA water distribution system north of the Dead

Sea and is used to irrigate farm units.

Although these three water institutions have a central role in overall management of

the water sector, other ministries and institutions often play influential role in

regulatory and/or implementation of the different functions in relation to water polices,

strategies and legislations. The Jordan Institution for Standards and Metrology sets forth

standards related to the water sector, the Ministry of Health monitor the drinking water

and ensures that wastewater facilities comply with regulations, and the Ministry of

Planning reviews all Ministry of Water and Irrigation plans and liaises with potential

funding agencies. The Council of Ministers, part of the executive branch, is involved in

water policy through policy initiation, legislation and finance. Royal Courts, Donors,

Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, NGOs, private sector and Universities

are also playing vital and different roles in the water sector.

54

Figure 14: The Area of JVA Responsibility

55

Table 22: Existing planning, strategies, policies and legislations

Year Document Title Type Theme Description

1988 Water Authority

Law No 18 of

1988

Law Institutional It established the Water Authority of Jordan (WAJ) established in 1988 as an

autonomous corporate body, with financial and administrative independence. The law

describes the Mandate of WAJ, in which WAJ is fully responsible for providing municipal

water and wastewater services, and development and management of groundwater

resources. It also clarifies WAJ's relationship with the Ministry of Water and Irrigation.

1992 Ministry of

Water and

Irrigation By Law

No 54 of 1992

By Law Institutional It established the Ministry of Water and Irrigation, in which it gives the full responsibility

for water and public sewage in the Kingdom as well as the projects pertaining thereto,

formulation and transmission of the water policy to the Council of Ministers for

adoption. The by-law gives the Ministry full responsibility for the economic and social

development of the Jordan Valley as well as carry out all the works which are necessary

for the realization of this object.

1994 Wastewater

Regulation No

66 of 1994

Regulation Wastewater The regulation describes WAJs responsibility to provide sewage connections networks,

and the allocated fees for each. It also clarifies that any illegal action for connections are

forbidden with their penalty fees.

1994 Drinking Water

Subscription

Regulation No

67 of 1994

Regulation Drinking

Water

The regulation describes the subscription and un-subscription procedures that need to

be done, and the technical fees, insurance and tariffication of the drinking water. It gives

the Cabinet the right to issue decisions related to tariff modification.

1997 Water Utility

Policy of 1997

Policy Water utility The policy was written after the water strategy formulation in April 1997. The policy

addresses the following themes: Institutional Development, PSP, Water Pricing and Cost

Recovery, HR, Water Resource Management, Water Quality and the Environment,

Service Levels, Public Awareness, Conservation and Efficiency Measures and Investment.

1997 Water Strategy

for Jordan of

Strategy Water sector The document helps describe Jordan's responsibility towards its water sector by the

following themes: resource development, resource management, legislation and

institutional, shared water resources, public awareness, performance, health standards,

56

1997 private sector participation, financing and research development.

1998 Groundwater

Management

Policy of 1998

Policy Groundwater The objective of this policy is to outline in more detail the statements contained in the

document entitled: "Jordan's Water Strategy". The policy statements set out the

Government's policy and intentions concerning groundwater management aiming at

development of the resource, its protection, management and measures needed to

bring the annual abstractions from the various renewable aquifers to the sustainable

rate of each.

1998 Irrigation Water

Policy of 1998

Policy Irrigation The policy addresses water related issues of resource development: agricultural use,

resource management, the imperative of technology transfer, water quality, efficiency,

cost recovery, management and other issues. Linkages with energy and the

environment are accorded a separate chapter. The policy is compatible with the Water

Strategy and is in conformity with its long-term objectives.

1998 Wastewater

Management

Policy of 1998

Policy Wastewater The objective of this policy is to outline in more detail the statements contained in the

document entitled: "Jordan's Water Strategy". The policy statements set out the

Government's policy and intentions concerning wastewater management aiming at the

collection and treatment of wastewater from different locations. It also aims at the

reuse of treated wastewater and sludge.

2001 Jordan Valley

Development

Law No 30 of

2001

Law Institutional The law for development of the water resources of the Valley and utilizing them for

purposes of irrigated farming, domestic and municipal uses, industry, generating

hydroelectric power and other beneficial uses; also their protection and conservation

and the carrying out of all the works related to the development, utilization, protection

and conservation of these resources. Jordan Valley Development Law No19 of 1988

amended by this law.

2002 Underground

Water Control

By-Law No 85 of

2002 and its

amendments of

By law Groundwater The by-law describes and entails the different procedures that are needed for

controlling groundwater resources in Jordan. It helps explain the utilization and

extraction quantity allowed. Moreover, conditions about licenses and their cost for

borehole drilling, and water extraction fees are included in this regulation.

57

2003, 2004 and

2007

2003 JVA Strategy

Plan for 2003 -

2008

Strategy Water sector The document helps describe (Jordan's Valley Authority) responsibility towards its

water sector by the following four major goals (water resource management and

development, water supply and distribution, land development and management,

organizational performance improvement and development). Each goal has set

objectives and later strategies that JVA should take responsibility of.

2004 National Water

Master Plan of

2004

Water

master

plan

Water sector Without water, there is no life. Individuals, private companies and public institutions are

taking great efforts to make water useable for their needs - be it drinking water,

pastoral needs, industries, agriculture or others. In order to coordinate these activities,

and to safeguard that the resources are also available for future generations, a common

planning framework is needed. This framework is given by the Water Master Plan. The

master plan will not be a static printed document but a Digital Water Master Plan based

on data and information from the Water Information System (WIS).

2008 Irrigation

Equipment and

System Design

Policy of 2008

Policy Irrigation This policy statement follows from longer-term objectives outlined in the Water

Strategy and supplements the Irrigation Water Policy and the Irrigation Water Allocation

and Use Policy by establishing a policy on irrigation equipment and system design

standards. The policy addresses the following themes: defining and updating

equipment standards, raising farmers’ awareness of standards, testing and enforcement

of standards, training and certifying drip system designers, and institutional

responsibilities.

2008 Irrigation Water

Allocation and

Use Policy of

2008

Policy Irrigation This policy statement follows from longer-term objectives outlined in the Water

Strategy and elaborates on priorities specified in the Irrigation Water Policy. As such, it

comprises an updating and extension of selected elements of the irrigation water policy.

In particular it consolidates and elaborates elements of that policy relating to on farm

water management, management and administration, water tariffing, and irrigation

efficiency. The policy addresses the following themes: defining and updating crop water

requirements, water allocation and billing practices, building farmers’ water

58

management skills, using reclaimed water, measuring deliveries and delivering water to

groups.

2008 National Water

Demand

Management

Policy of 2008

Policy Water

Demand

Management

Water Demand Management Policy is intended to result in maximum utilization and

minimum waste of water, and promote effective water use efficiency and water

conservation, for social and economic development and environmental protection.

2008 Water Authority

Strategic Plan

2008-2012

Strategy Water sector The strategic plan analyzes the internal and external environment of WAJ then identifies

the main challenges that face WAJ. The strategic plan sets 6 objectives and proposes 4

strategies and action plan to achieve them. It uses the balance score card to monitor

and follow up the progress in achieving the objectives

2009 Jordan's Water

Strategy 2008-

2022: Water for

Life

Strategy Water sector This is the most recent strategy that specified drinking water as the main priority in

water allocation, followed by industry and agriculture. The new water strategy was

distinguished by the participatory approach and it is based on vision driven change

efforts. It includes specific actions and plans with targets to be achieved. Furthermore,

the strategy emphasis on the two mega projects; the Disi water conveyance and the

Red-Dead Canal, the reduction of the Non-Revenue for Water (NWR), on having cost

reflective tariffs and restructuring the institutions of the water sector.

59

3.4 Constraints on Implementing Water Policy and Strategies

There are many constraints that are facing the water sector in Jordan and creating

difficulties in having effective implementation of the water policies and strategies. It is

important to address that these constraints are interrelation. These constraints can be

grouped into the following themes:

I. Legislative and institutional constraints

a. Overlapping of mandates and lack of coordination

There is lack of separation between powers and different functions in terms of execution of

water services, planning and surveillance of law compliance. In particular, there are overlaps

among the water sector organizations; MWI, WAJ and JVA and between the water sector

organizations and the ministry of Environment in terms of regulation, Ministry of agriculture

in terms of irrigation water and expanding the agricultural land, and Ministry of

Municipalities in terms of roads recovery after projects execution. Furthermore, there is

overlapping of responsibility in land acquisition management and development between JVA

and Department of Land and Survey and Development Zones Commission. In addition, there

is weak coordination in the integrated planning approach between the water sector

organizations and other organizations related to infrastructure and economic development.

There is an increased need for proper communication both among sectors and between

initiative levels (from government to the grassroots) in order to coordinate programs and

create a stronger, comprehensive plan for addressing water problems (Denny et al., 2008).

The new water strategy for 2008-2022 addressed and provided some solutions for this issue.

However, the actions on the ground since Feb 2009 (the date of its adoption) are still limited

and insufficient.

b. Centralization and decentralization issue

During the 1970s the water sector was managed by decentralized institutions. Then during

1980s, WAJ and JVA were established with centralized management. In 1992, MWI was

established with more centralized functions. Thus, the water administration and distribution

has been centralized with the federal government making decisions regarding infrastructure,

access to water, quality standards, and even information dissemination.

In the last decade, an inverse movement has been started by introducing the Water Users

Associations (WUAs), the Private Sector Participation (PSP) and the corporatization. Such

examples include the relatively new trend of Water Users Associations in JV which gives

responsibility back to the people. These groups are working to maintain the irrigation lines,

report system leakages, control theft and vandalism, manage the intakes, and eventually

participate in irrigation scheduling. The groundwater forum in highland is recently

introduced in a similar principle of the WUAs. Management contract of LEMA in Amman, the

PSP in Madaba and the managing consulting in NGWA are different PSP approaches used

60

during the last 10 years. More recent is the corporatization approach by establishing Aqaba

Water Company in 2004 which is fully independent institution, Jordan Water Company

(Miyahuna) in Amman in 2007 which is an operational and maintenance company and Al

Yarmouk Water in the Northern Governorates in 2010. These private corporations are

interested in reducing cost and maximizing profit, and in the example of LEMA, efficiency has

improved in water and wastewater services in Amman in part by reducing unaccounted-for

water. It is important to address that the private company administers the water system

must act according to the contractual constraints from the Ministry of Water and Irrigation.

The fluctuation between centralization and decentralization management in the water

sector addresses the inability to realizes when to use centralized or decentralized

management and for which functions. However, the current trend is showing that the water

sector is closer to the right track in centralizing certain functions such as planning and

regulation, and decentralizing other functions such as operation and maintenance (O&M)

functions according to the new water strategy of 2008-2022. The current trend in

decentralizing the O&M functions is also supported by improved productivity gained with

the recent corporatization examples in Aqaba Water Company and Miyahuna.

c. Enforcement of legislation

The WAJ law No. 18 of 1988 and its amendments have various penalties on the illegal use of

water and sewer network, damaging any of WAJ’s assets, polluting any water resources,

drilling unlicensed groundwater wells, and carrying any work related to water or wastewater

without obtaining the licenses, permits or approvals required. These penalties ranged from

sentencing the person who violates the law to no less than six months, and no more than

two years or to a fine no less than JD 100 and no more than JD 5000, or both punishments.

However, the enforcement of applying the law and such penalties is still weak particularly

when it comes to the illegal use of water which accounts for the high NRW ratios. In practice,

compliance with water regulations is imperfect, especially in rural areas in the south and

east of Jordan.

The available tools to enforce the law is limited where there is no specialized courts for

solving the disputes related to the water sector, no clear procedure for monitoring and

following up, and the applied penalties might be insufficient and requires revision to match

the size of violation with the appropriate punishment.

d. Weak organizational capacity

The organizational capacity of the water institutions is weak and deteriorating due to many

reasons including the brain drain of professionals, the weak management skills of middle

management staff, the ineffective capacity building programs, the unsustainable

management of recourses, the turnover and instability of the top management in the water

sector, and the miss-match between the human resources available in the water institutions

and the qualifications needed by these institutions, lack of documentations and follow up of

61

processes and procedures, no outcome and impact evaluation of executed projects and

activities, issues in data flow and its accuracy, lack of public participation and involvement,

and the lack of organization and delegation of authority. These reasons are interrelated

where in many cases the water sector invested in building the capacity of its staff but there

was no proper way to maintain the trained staff, as in many cases those skilful staff are paid

higher salaries in the local and regional markets as witnessed during the last years. Changing

the top management frequently in the water affected on the sustainability of the

management processes and follow up.

II. Financial constraints

a. Low cost recovery level

The low level of cost recovery and high level of subsidy particularly for domestic and

irrigation water resulted in a financial crisis for the water sector with more than JD 1 billion

of accumulated deficit of WAJ as an example. In 2008, WAJ only covered 110% of its O&M

costs which is dropped from 133% in 2005. The reduction in and the insufficient amount of

revenue collected resulted in lack capital investment and ineffective daily operations and

maintenance. One of the main causes of this situation is the existing tariff that does not

address well the actual cost of service provision.

b. Insufficient financing and aids and loans dependence

Implementing water sector policies and strategies require huge capital investments to

upgrade and rehabilitate the existing systems and expand services to the newly developed

areas. Figure 15 shows the increasing trend of capital investments in the municipal water

and wastewater infrastructures implemented by WAJ. The figure also illustrates that there is

a clear fluctuation in the capital investment values mainly due to the finance availability.

Figure 16 explains this further, where it can be noticed that the sources of financing varied

significantly during the last 10 years accompanied with a general trend of a reduction in the

foreign assistance provided by donors starting from 2005 but with an increase in the

Government of Jordan (GoJ) support. Thus, the water sector organizations in Jordan are

getting more dependent on the aids provided by donors and central government. This

fluctuation in the capital investment from year to year increases the pressure on having

sustainable investments.

This is accompanied with a low and declining cost recovery levels during the last year, leaded

WAJ to obtain more debts guaranteed by the GoJ to cover its growing operational expenses

and capital investments. Thereby, the debt of WAJ grew significantly from JD 272 million in

2004 to JD 450 million in 2009, which is almost equivalent to 65% increase over 5 years.

Figure 17 shows the pattern WAJ’s debt over 2004-2009. Moreover, the overall debt of WAJ

is expected to reach around 630 million JD by the end of 2010 (an increase of around 40%

62

from 2009 debt), which alerts by taking place a sequential rising of debt value that will

mostly go beyond the control of WAJ.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Mil

lio

n J

D

Figure 15: Historical capital investments in the municipal water and wastewater

infrastructure

47%52% 51%

56% 58%

32%40%

30%

58%66%

44%

0%0% 0%

0% 0%

0%

3%19%

0%

0%

26%

33% 19%27%

37%

21%

21%8%

8%

12%

21% 15%

19%29%

22%

7%

21%

47% 48%43%

30%

13% 15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

WAJ Source GoJ Support Loans Grants

Figure 16: Distribution of financing sources of the capital investment of WAJ

63

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

De

bt

gro

wth

(%

)

Loa

ns

in m

illi

on

JD

Internal loans External loans

Total loans Debt growth

Figure 17: Historical debt of WAJ

c. Lack of financial incentives

The performance of the water organizations is varied largely and there are no financial

incentives for those organizations/utilities that are performing better than others. With the

independency of several water utilities on WAJ’s centralized budget and JVA and MWI on

the central budget of the Government, there are no financial incentives for these

organizations to implement effectively the water policies and strategies.

III. Socio-economic constraints

Rapid growth of population

Although, the rate of growth of Jordan’s population dropped from more 4% during the 1980s

to around 2.2% annually in 2009, such rate is still considered high compared to the

developed countries and creates large pressure on the existing infrastructure.

Social values and public perception

Attitudes toward water in Jordan are shaped by religion, with several verses in the Qur’an

speaking to the blessing of water. Islamic tradition prevents water from being “sold” unless

there has been an effort to provide it, and private spring owners cannot prevent others from

using it for themselves or their livestock. More recently, religious leaders decreed that

purified wastewater was fit for drinking, which made it socially feasible for political leaders

to incorporate the practice (Haddadin, 2006). This social value allows for some people to use

water illegally as they believe that water should be provided for free.

In addition, some of the surveys carried out to measure the level of satisfaction with the

water quality indicated low levels of satisfaction. WAJ’s Strategic plan for 2008-2012

indicated that the level of satisfaction of citizen in 2005 is of an average of 5 on a scale of 1-

10 for most of the indicators used to measure the customer satisfaction (WAJ, 2007). OMS

64

carried out two surveys to measure customer satisfaction in different governorates in 2007

and 2008. The results showed that around 50% of customers are using the tap water for

drinking purposes, however there were significant variation in satisfaction levels from place

to other with a range from 9% in Fuhais city in Balqa governorate to 88% in Dhiban city in

Madaba governorate (OMS, 2007 and 2008). Moreover, the trust in the government and its

water institutions is decreasing which creates more pressure on the ability of the water

institutions to impose certain actions without having public complaints as the case of trying

to increase water tariff, which is not achieved till now although the government planned to

do that.

The influence of tribal and “wasta” (the public term used to refer for giving weight to tribal

and familial connections) have also been manifested in very concrete ways on the ground.

Powerful tribes are able to build and maintain links to the government and thereby actively

lobby in the interests of their group. Such interests include hiring practices, ability to use

water illegally, not being compliance to certain law as happened to the case of private

irrigation wells in Disi aquifer, etc. (Denny et al., 2008).

Lack of economic incentives

There are no economic incentives for decision making process particularly in terms of

planning, priority investment identification and licensing. Although, residential and irrigation

water tariff is increasing block that provides some economic incentives for water consumer

to conserve water but there is good room for providing more economic incentives specially

for the agricultural sector. In addition, the penalties applied on the illegal use of water are

insufficient to enforce the law.

IV. Technical and physical constraints

Water scarcity

Jordan is considered as the third to fourth poorest country in its water availability per capita

and is characterized by flocculated rainfall. The recent trend of rainfall amount indicated a

noticeable reduction during the last years. These constraints are putting more pressure on

Jordan to implement its water strategy and having more reliable water services that can

meet the increasing demand of inhabitants and economic activities in Jordan. This situation

resulted in adopting the rationing of household water supplies that creates many

malfunctions in the system including the system vulnerability to compromise by biological

pathogens and pollutants, faster deterioration of the water network and more energy

consumption.

Insufficient preventive maintenance for the water and wastewater systems

The improper prioritization of expenditures, the limited financial resources and lack of the

applying the best operation and maintenance practices resulted in having insufficient

65

preventive maintenance of the water and wastewater systems, which led to deteriorating

these systems faster than the international standards. This leaded to poor water and

wastewater services in some areas and water quality problems such as the case of

Manshiyet Bani Hassan in Mafraq Governorates occurred in 2007.

Limited use of technology to reduce water consumption

One area of important focus of Jordan’s water strategies, policies and legislations is water

demand management and reduce water consumption. Using advance technology for

production in industries and agricultures as well as in the household plumbers is proven to

play a vital role in reducing water consumption and increase water productivity. The lack of

how to utilize and the knowledge about such advance technology is a major constraint that

limits the advancement in improving water demand management.

4 Future Trends in Water resources and Demand

4.1 Water Resources

4.1.1 Future Water Availability

Jordan has extensively utilized most of its conventional available water resources. The

current groundwater abstraction rates are around 500 MCM annually with exceeds the safe

yield by around 180%. The total average annual runoff is around 555 MCM where around

half of this quantity is utilized with the total dams capacity of 315 MCM. Therefore, there are

limited conventional water resources that can be utilized for future, while the emphasis will

be on the development of the non-conventional water resources. The following is a

description of the main future water resources:

1. Conveyance of Disi aquifer water

The conveyance of Disi water will provide around 100 MCM annually of drinking water to

Amman and other middle and northern governorates, which is expected to happen by the

second half of 2013. The Disi water has been used mainly for irrigation purpose (around 40

MCM annually) and to supply Aqaba city with drinking water (around 20 MCM annually).

However, water that is being used for irrigation will be stopped before start supplying the

100 MCM. This source is considered to be almost the major remaining conventional water

source that can be utilized for drinking water. Disi Aquifer is considered a non-renewable

source with very limited recharge rates. The Conveyance system will be built on the BOT

base and the capital cost is estimated at around JD 770 million.

2. Red Sea Dead Sea Water Conveyance (RSDSWC)

66

The current cost estimation of the RSDSWC is around 6.4 billion USD including the

transmission lines to Amman component. The overall desalinated quantity is 850 MCM

annually, the Jordan’s share of it is 560 MCM. The construction duration of the project varies

depending largely on the conveyance type selected, and therefore the project construction

duration is expected to take from 7 to 10 years. According to the Jordan's Water Strategy

2008-2022, the RSDSWC will be operational by 2022.

3. Jordan Red Sea Project (JRSP)

The GoJ introduced JRSP on late 2009 due to the urgent need to have additional water

supply available in a quicker track than the REDSWC. Thus, the GoJ established JRSP

company to manage this project that aims to provide additional water supply and to have a

comprehensive economic development program. The project is planned to be implemented

on 5 phases extend over 45 years that will start providing fresh water supply in 2018 as

shown in Table 23.

Table 23: JRSP phasing schedule and water flows

Project

phase

Construction

period

Sea water Extraction

(MCM/yr)

Fresh water

delivery ( MCM/yr)

Dead sea discharge

(MCM/yr)

I 2011-2018 400 210 190

II 2019-2025 700 370 330

III 2028-2035 1,070 560 510

IV 2038-2045 1,800 720 1,080

V 2050-2055 2,150 930 1,220

Source: NWMP team in MWI

4. Other brackish water desalination

In Jordan, there are two main sources available to be desalted: the Aqaba Gulf and the

brackish deep groundwater or mineral springs flowing in some basins (Jaber and Mohsen,

2001). Around 250 MCM is the available estimation of the quantity of the brackish deep

groundwater (CEC, 2010). Currently, Abu Ezzeghan desalination plant produces around 11-

12 MCM annually. The most recent large major desalination plant is Zara Ma’in constructed

in 2006, which produces around 36 MCM/year. Additionally, there is several small to mid

size water desalination plants operate in Jordan that produce no more than 10 millions of

cubic meter per year, these include desalination plants include Karamah Dam with a capacity

of 1 MCM/year, Faisal nursery wells with a capacity of 2.3 MCM/year and Bereen wells with a

capacity of 1.8 MCM/year.

In future and in addition to the RDSDWC project, there are plans to expand constructing

small to mid size desalination plants with a potential of increasing annually the desalinated

quantity of water by around 1 MCM for the coming 5 years. Additionally, there is plans in

67

Aqaba to develop a desalination plant in two phases, each with a capacity of 5 MCM per

annum with a total cost estimated at US$ 50 (MoPIC, 2010)

5. Treated wastewater

In 2008, around 100 MCM of treated wastewater efficient was reused for irrigation and

industrial purposes. Such quantity formulated around 10% of the total water resources. The

Jordan's Water Strategy 2008-2022 estimated that the treated wastewater to be around 247

MCM by 2022, of which 220 MCM to be used for irrigation purpose and 27 MCM to be used

for industrial purpose. This will increase the contribution of the treated wastewater into 15%

of the total water resources. The estimation is based on a set of targets including serving the

major cities and small towns with adequate collection and treatment facilities, introducing

the decentralized (local) plant, major industries and mines to have wastewater treatment

plants, using of gray water in the new high-rise buildings, and producing treated wastewater

in compliance to the international standards to be used as a safe non-potable water source.

6. Improve water supply efficiency

The overall Un-Accounted for Water (UFW) of the municipal water sector is reached around

140 MCM in 2009, which is equivalent to around 43% of total water supply. However, UFW

varies among Jordan’s governorates where the highest and the lowest value are recorded in

Mafraq and Aqaba Governorates with 63.5% and 21% respectively as shown in Figure 18. In

general, there is no accurate estimation of how much of the UFW is considered as physical

losses. MWI roughly estimates that 50% of the UFW is physical losses and the remaining 50%

is considered to be administrative losses resulted from the illegal use of water, meter

reading errors, and data processing. By other meaning, around 21.5% of total water supply is

a physical losses and a same ratio is administrative water losses. There are many causes for

such high water loss ratio such as the poor water network condition, the lack of having

isolated water supply zones, the rational water supply, the cultural behavior of using water

through illegal connection and human errors. The administrative losses are consumed by the

customers, however good portion of it can be saved through more efficient use of water

(assessed further in the next point). The physical losses can be saved through improving the

water supply system, in which 5-15% of physical water losses cannot be saved. In theory and

assuming that the whole water supply systems in Jordan are efficient with physical water

losses of 10% will result in saving around 37 MCM based on 2009 water supply quantity.

Reaching to such saving will require huge investments in restructuring and rehabilitating the

existing water network systems. Such ongoing and planned major projects include the

following:

- Restructuring and rehabilitating the water networks in Zarqa governorate project

funded by MCC with a budget value of 102.6 million USD. The project is expected to

start on 2011 and finish in 2016.

68

- Rehabilitating and upgrading the tertiary and secondary water networks in Amman

and the implementation of the investment plan of JD 150 million on 2008-2015.

- Improving water systems Ma’an and Tafileh

- Water losses reduction and network rehabilitation projects in NGWA

- Water losses reduction project in Balqa, Madaba and Irbid

Figure 18: Un-accountant for water ratios in Jordan’s governorates for year 2009

In the Jordan Valley, the average amount of UFW during the last 10 years is estimated at 34

MCM annually (CEC, 2010). Assuming an ability to reduce this ratio by 75%, then around 25

MCM can be saved annually. Furthermore, there is good potential to save additional water

quantities used in the highlands for irrigation. However, there are no estimates available on

the water losses in the highland water systems.

Thus, the overall water saving from improving the water supply efficiency is estimated to be

around 62 MCM in 2009. This quantity will be larger in future as the municipal water supply

quantity is going to grow. In 2022, the Jordan’s population will reach around 7.8 million

inhabitants. Assuming a water supply of 150 lpcd, this will result in supplying around 427

MCM. A targeted physical water loss of 10% compared with current loss of 21.5% will result

of saving around 49 MCM.

7. Improve water use efficiency

The improvement of the water use efficiency implies that the water users consume less

water quantity than they were previously consuming. Thus, the improvement of water use

efficiency will not in fact produce new water supply rather than it allows reallocating the

saved water into other users.

The recently conducted study by CEC tried to assess the saving resulted from efficient water

use, however there was not concrete estimation. The most saving is expected to come from

the agricultural sector then by the domestic sector. The study addressed that a significant

69

amount of irrigation water is wasted due to inappropriate location of agricultural operations

in desert areas with high evaporation rates and high percolation of water in the sandy soil.

Current on farm water use efficiency is between 40-60% depending on the irrigation system

used (surface or drip irrigation) and the area where irrigation takes place (i.e. irrigation

water efficiency decreasing as moving from north to southern part of Jordan Valley) (as

reported by JVA officials). According to the historical data, it has been noticed that the best

cases, irrigation water use efficiency cannot be improved more than 1-5% annually according

to the geographical area. Assuming an average of on farm water use efficiency of 50% of the

whole irrigation water (around 500 MCM) and an average improved of about 3%, this makes

about 7.5 MCM of annual water savings.

The majority of the residential customers are considered to be lower consumers with around

80% of household is consuming less than 60 m3 per quarter, which is equivalent to around

110 lpcd assuming an household size of 6 persons. Figure 19 illustrates the distribution of

residential customers against their water consumption per quarter. The remaining 20% of

customers who can be classified as large consumers are consuming around 40% of the water

consumed by residents. This amount is estimated to be around 60 MCM per year. By

assuming that more efficient use of water by the large consumers can save around 50% of

consumed water, then the estimated overall saving can reach around 30 MCM annually

based on 2008 water billing data.

In addition, a good portion of the administrative losses estimated at around 70 MCM in

2009, which are consumed by customers can be saved through more efficient water use.

Assuming that the administrative losses ratio from the total water supply quantity can be

reduced from 21.5% to around 10%, then the overall saving will reach around 37 MCM

based on 2009 water supply quantities.

Figure 19: Distribution of residential customers against quarterly water consumption for

2008

70

8. Better utilization of Wehda Dam

The Government of Jordan and the Government of Syria signed in 1987 an agreement to

invest the Yarmouk River water, in which it agreed that Jordan will utilize from the water

collected in the Dam and both will utilize the electricity generated by 75% for Syria and 25%

for Jordan. However, the construction of Al-Wehda Dam happened after 20 years in 2007.

The storage capacity of the dam is 110 MCM with a future plan to increase it to around 225

MCM. The decision of building the dam was made based on the annual yield of 80 MCM.

Unfortunately, since the dam was in operation, the maximum collected quantity of water

was 18 MCM occurred at the end of the last season, which formulate only 16% of it storage

capacity. The main reason for this is that Syria constructed many dams upper stream of

Yarmouk River that captured most the surface water used to flow toward the River.

Additionally, the severe over exploitation of the groundwater aquifers in the Yarmouk Basin

by the Syrian reduces the springs discharge to the Yarmouk River.

Recently, the Governments of Jordan and Syria started working together to solve the issue of

filling Al Wehda dam with water and how Syrian can reduce the overuse of the Yarmouk

Basin water. If both governments come to an agreement on how to maintain a sustainable

level of surface runoff to the dam with water, Jordan can benefit by up to around 80 MCM

annually. However, the availability of such future water source is questionable and subject

to high risk. Therefore, it is assumed that only 30 MCM per year can be utilized from this

source.

9. Rain water Harvesting

CEC (2010) estimated that using rainwater harvesting by 30% of buildings in Amman can

collect around 46.2 MCM. By Assuming that 30% of the building in the other governorates

can also collect same quantity, then rainwater harvesting can at least collected around 100

MCM annually. Definitely, expanding the use of rainwater harvesting will take time,

therefore collecting such quantity can be achieved reasonable be achieved after 5 years if

appropriate incentives and mechanisms are put in place.

Summary of future new water resources

Table 24 summarizes the additional future new water resources. Figure 20 and Figure 21 are

illustrating in graphic representation the accommodative quantities of the additional future

new water resource and the relative importance of additional future new water resources

respectively.

It should be noted that the results in Figure 20 and Figure 21 will be changed according to

the scenarios built by the stakeholders in the main study report.

71

Table 24: Future water resources in Jordan (make it as graph as there is incremental

increase annually for some sources)

Water source Water Quantity

(MCM)

Expected date

to utilize

Conveyance of Disi aquifer water 100* 2013

Red Sea Dead Sea Water Conveyance (RSDSWC) 560 2022

Jordan Red Sea Project (JRSP) 210, 370 2018, 2025

Other brackish water desalination ??? ???

Treated wastewater 100-247 2008-2022

Improve water supply efficiency 62-83 2009-2022

Improve water use efficiency** 74.5 2011-2022

Al-Wehda Dam 80 2011-2022

Rainwater harvesting 100 2016

* it is important to address that only 60 MCM is considered as an additional water that will be used

from the Disi system, as there are currently 40 MCM is used for irrigation in Disi area. This implies

that these 40 MCM will be reallocated for drinking water use.

** This is not a physically additional water quantity rather than a reallocated water for other users

127 149211

273310

347 359

582 594 606 618

1,190 1,201 1,211

1,382

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MC

M

Conveyance of Disi aquifer water

RSDSWC

JRSP

Other brackish water desalination

Treated wastewater

Improve water supply efficiency

Al-Wehda Dam

Rainwater harvesting

Total

Figure 20: Accumulative major additional future new water resource quantities

72

14%22% 19% 17% 17%

10% 10% 10% 10%5% 5% 5% 4%

47% 47% 46%41%

36% 35% 35% 34%

18% 17% 17% 27%

25% 28%

25%

23%24% 24% 26%

18% 19% 21% 22%

12% 13% 14%13%

51% 45%32%

26%23%

21% 21%

13% 13% 13% 13%

7% 7% 7% 6%24%20%

14%11%

10%9% 8%

5% 5% 5% 5%

3% 2% 2% 2%7%

14% 18%24%

29% 28%17% 17% 17% 16%

8% 8% 8% 7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Conveyance of Disi aquifer water RSDSWC JRSP

Other brackish water desalination Treated wastewater Improve water supply efficiency

Al-Wehda Dam Rainwater harvesting

Figure 21: Relative importance of additional future new water resources

4.1.2 Polluted Water Resources and Future Trends

In a country with a severe water scarcity such as Jordan, water quality is a key issue that

might generate pressure on the water resource and thereby reduce the fresh water available

for use. The level of water quality varies by source of water and by geographical location. In

general, the limited presence of surface water and shallow groundwater helps in protecting

the water resources in Jordan.

Overall, water quality is declined through different causes of pollution that could be mainly

grouped into (Bakir, 2001):

1. Unsafe management of domestic wastewater: this includes disposal of untreated or

poorly treated wastewater, seepage from poorly constructed and maintained onsite

sanitation systems

2. Uncontrolled disposal of industrial waste into sewers, land and water bodies

3. Leaching from unsanitary solid waste landfills

4. Seepage from agrochemicals (excessive use of fertilizers and pesticides)

5. Over-abstraction or use of the existing water resources

Surface water quality is generally acceptable quality, but with the presence of some

important problems of salinity and bacteriological contamination of a localized nature. Some

73

of these are possibly with a strategic significance, particularly at the Zarqa junction of the

King Abdullah Canal (KAC), which is located upstream of important irrigation schemes in the

Jordan valley. The water quality flowing from As-Samra WWTP is of high salinity that is

mixed with the KAC water and causing deterioration in the irrigation water quality used in

Middle Ghor. This limits the crop planted in that area and thus required further treatment to

be suitable for growing value crops. The overall decline of fresh surface water resources

observed in recent years and in particular in Yarmouk River might have significant

implications for quality of surface water (World Bank, 2009).

There are various consequences of using the treated wastewater flowing from As Samra

WWTP downstream of the plant. These consequences include:

1. Limiting the crops that can be irrigated with the treated wastewater to those crops

with very low to low risks for consumer contamination with treated wastewater.

Such crops include olive, wheat, animal fodder, cooked vegetables, crops with

inedible shell, crops grown for their seeds and crops bound on trellis.

2. The unsuitability of irrigating value crops due to improper water salinity and quality

for those crops.

3. Increasing the cost of irrigation due to the need to reduce the treated wastewater

salinity through using desalination, using advanced technology for plantation and

irrigation, and higher maintenance cost resulted from rapid occurrence of irrigation

systems clogging.

In fact, the surface and groundwater nearby As-Samra wastewater treatment plant and

along the effluent path suffered from a major cause for deteriorating water quality (Al-

Kharabsheh, 1999). This situation is expected to change with the construction of the new

plant on the BOT basis that produce treated wastewater according to the Jordanian

standards. Thereby, the polluted region is expected to recover in future, except with regards

of salinity issues that is stay high in future.

The groundwater resources in Jordan faced increasing trend in abstraction above the safe

yield that simultaneously leaded to a declining water tables and increasing salinity in most

aquifers. This also resulted higher extraction costs (in terms of pumping and accelerated well

replacement), and the need to use more irrigation water for leaching. Furthermore, the

salinity level of many groundwater resources is rapidly approaching the limits for drinking

water standard, making the provision of drinking water more expensive in future due to the

need for the additional desalination. The World Bank (2009) estimate the increase of

production costs and declining yields to poor water quality would affect farmers' income, for

a share of some 40% of the 2006 cost of environmental degradation. Moreover, the cost is

more likely to escalate in the future, as water tables keep declining, and as increase demand

for potable use in urban areas raises the opportunity costs of the additional water required

to lower salinity. As an illustration, Figure 22 obviously shows the relation between the

74

groundwater table drawdown and the increase in the salinity levels as measure by electrical

conductivity in Amman-Zarqa Basin, which is the most important and largest basin in Jordan.

Figure 22: Groundwater level and electrical conductivity in the Amman-Zarqa basin

(Source World Bank, 2009)

Additionally, the nitrate content in the different wells is of significant concentration and in

some wells surpasses the limits for drinking water quality particularly in Amman-Zarqa basin,

but is less alerting in the other basins.

Only 28% of the total industrial wastewater effluent is treated (or 50% if

wastewater from potash mining is excluded, which is most likely to have limited

environmental impacts). About 25% of industrial wastewater is estimated to be discharged

in the sewer network, which affect on the wastewater treatment plants performance

particularly in Amman-Zarqa Basin where the quality of the effluent is of concern on

account.

Around 63% of households have access to the sewer network, which eventually will reduce

the impact of the septic tanks on the groundwater quality. However, the remaining

unconnected households, store wastewater in septic tanks and dispose it through

wastewater tanker with limited monitoring of the effluent quality.

75

The agricultural practices and solid waste management are other two sources of pollution

that contribute to a lesser extent to contamination of water resources.

In agriculture, the per-hectare use of fertilizers and pesticides is estimated to be relatively

low (around 12 kg/ha of pesticides) in comparison to international averages. Water quality

analysis did not provide any strong evidence of residues of pesticides in surface- and ground-

water. The solid waste is mostly disposed in sites that are not lined suggest that leachate

may infiltrate into aquifers that provide groundwater for drinking and irrigation use. The

recently Ghabawi landfill is designed and constructed to comply with the best international

practices to reduce the pollutants seepage to the surrounding environment. As this landfill is

serving 60% of Jordan’s inhabitants, then it is expected to have positive impact on water

quality.

The future trend of water quality in Jordan is dependent on Jordan’s ability to remove or

mitigate the causes of pollution. The following actions, plans, phenomena and their

expected impacts on water quality summarized below are providing a broad outline of how

the water quality in Jordan would look like in future:

- Reduce groundwater abstraction and water mega projects: With having Disi water

by mid 2013 and potentially the RSDSC around 2020, the over-abstraction rates are

expected to decrease and reduce the stresses on the groundwater resources.

However salinity issue will be difficult to mitigate, as it would take long time to

recover groundwater basins which most likely will be difficult to happen while saving

the basin from further deterioration is the foreseen scenario.

- Increase accessibility to wastewater network and improve effluent quality:

bacteriological contamination will be reduced but salinity will continue to be high.

- Climate change: the reduction in rainfall quantity and the increase in temperatures

are going to increase the stresses on the water resources. The declining recharge

rates will diminish the expected reduction in the groundwater abstraction. Runoff

quantities are expected to decrease and thereby the contamination of surface water

is expected to increase assuming other factors do not change.

- Industrial wastewater treatment: There are plans to construct industrial wastewater

treatment plants as the case of the industrial wastewater treatment plant in Zarqa

Governorate that are leaded and managed by Zarqa Chamber of Commerce, which

will serve the industrial sector around Zarqa River. Thus, the contamination resulted

from the industrial sector is expected to be less in future due to the use of high

technology of reverse osmosis units and enforcing the environmental rules and

regulations.

The combined effects of all the above actions, plans and phenomena is most likely to worsen

in the medium to long term situation, and result in impacts on human health, income and

76

agriculture outputs, well beyond the current level of impact estimated by the World Back

(2009) at 0.8% of GDP for 2006.

4.2 Water Demand

4.2.1 Assessment of the Factors Affecting Water Demand

Water demand is influenced by several confounding factors that are varied overtime.

Variation in the influential factors makes the estimation and forecast of water demand

uncertain. And demand uncertainty is at the root of the water supply reliability problem. The

ability to assess those influencing factors with higher levels of confidence corresponds to

lower levels of uncertainty. Situations of uncertainty in estimating water demand are

translated into situations of risk for being incorrect or inaccurate. Such risks include

designing over capacity systems and supply excess water which means extra costs incurred,

or the opposite case where there is water deficit (less supply than the demand requirement)

that becomes a constraint on the economic activities.

The approach used to assess the factors affecting water demand of the different sectors can

be summarized as following:

1- Reviewing the previous studies and researches carried out on Jordan

2- Identifying the main factors influencing water demand through reviewing the

literatures and building on the opinions received from the Jordan’s water sector

experts

3- Collect the available data related to the factors identified in the previous step

4- Investigate the relationships and their significance between the potential factors

identified and the municipal water demand using data on the governorate level.

5- Decide on the factors to consider for future domestic water demand.

4.2.1.1 Domestic Sector

There are few studies available that assess the factors affecting on the water demand.

Salman et al., 2008 tried to made estimates of demand and supply functions for water. The

study focused on understanding the nature of household demand for water, and attempted

to express the household demand functions. A panel of quarterly aggregate data of 10,564

observations was drawn from the household expenditure survey conducted by the

Department of Statistics in 2003 is used to estimate domestic water demand function. An

econometric model was developed that relate water consumption with to the marginal

price, rate structure premium, level of household income, education level, household size

and house type. The model assessed these factors using two techniques; the Ordinary Least

Square (OLS) and the two Stages Least Square (2SLS). The study used two models. In the first

model, the dependent variable is the household consumption of water in cubic meter and in

77

the second model the dependant variable is the daily per capita water consumption in litre

per capita.

Another study carried out by Al-Karablieh et al. (2006) focused on understanding the nature

of household demand for water in Amman-Zarqa basin, including estimation of residential

demand functions for water by income classes and spatial distribution. Data from 1360

households and instrumental variables estimation techniques are used to estimate the

residential water demand function. Marginal price, rate structure premium, level of

household income and other welfare indicators are examined as factors influencing

residential water demand. The results show that the estimated residential water demand

elasticity is negative and weakly responsive to price (-0.47) for the basin, (-0.62 for Amman

and -0.004 for Zarqa). Households with lower incomes responded less to higher water prices

than wealthier household groups, not as hypothesized. This means that the demand

function, below certain levels becomes insensitive to increases in price. Other factors such as

household size, level of welfare, education, and number of bathrooms are positively

correlated with water demand.

1. Population growth

It is obviously expected that water demand increase with the population growth. Figure 23

demonstrates this relation through drawing the population verses the total billed water for

each governorate over 2001-2009. There is good correlation that supports this hypothesis

with 0.81 R2. Nevertheless, water demand is not expected to increase in the same manner of

population growth. This is can be verified through drawing the population growth verses the

total billed water change for each governorate over 2001-2009 as shown in Figure 24. The

figure demonstrates that there is positive relation between population growth and water

demand increase, where all points are located in the positive quarter. However, there is no

correlation between both variables which supports that the demand change does not

increase in the same manner of the population growth. This could be explained by the

variation in NRW, by allocating in many cases the same share of water supply on a larger

number of inhabitants due to limited water availability in Jordan, and by consuming the

same quantity of water inside household even with increasing the number of members living

in the same household such as cleaning household, irrigation the garden, etc. In conclusion,

population growth has clear influence on water demand that drives its increase.

78

Figure 23: Population relation to total water billed for each governorates over 2001-2009

Figure 24: Relation between population growth the total billed water change for 2001-

2009

2. Water prices

In economics, the demand theory implies that demand for a commodity normally decreases

by increasing its price in the market. However, such price change varies from inelastic to

elastic. Most worldwide studies indicated that water price has inelastic influence on the

domestic water demand. In Jordan, there are few studies that analyzed and assessed the

water price elasticity on water demand. Salman et al., 2008 study estimated the price

elasticity to be around -0.12 and -0.18 for the water consumption measured in liter per

capita per day and in meter cube per household per quarter. Al-Karablieh et al. (2006) also

79

showed that the estimated residential water demand elasticity is negative and weakly

responsive to price (-0.47) for the Amman-Zarqa Basin, (-0.62 for Amman and -0.004 for

Zarqa).

Furthermore, residential customers in many cases and during water supply shortages buy

water from tankers, water treatment shops and wells. The latest Household Expenditure and

Income Survey of 2008 carried out by DOS (2010) estimated that around 19.2%, 4.7% and

2.3% of Jordan’s household consider the mineral water (water shops), wells and water

tankers as the main source for drinking water. All these sources are more expensive than the

public water network and households of different income levels are buying these sources

derived by the need to have enough and potable drinking water. This provides further

evidence that water prices particularly under limited water supply is inelastic.

3. Distribution of urban and rural population

Urban and rural households have different characteristics and water consumption behavior

of each. For example, rural areas have more individual type houses (named as Dar) while

urban areas have more apartment type houses. Those Dars normally is surrounded by a

garden and might have additional facilities compared with apartments such as water pool,

small economic activities related to agricultural and animal production. Additionally, the

number of family members is also larger in the rural areas derived by the need to have more

family members help their families in their agricultural activities. Therefore, water demand

and consumption behavior is expected to vary between the urban and rural areas.

The analysis carried out be Salman et al. (2008) concluded that customers resident in a flat

or apartment, which are more common in urban areas, consumes less water per household

and per capita compared to customers resident in an individual houses which are common in

rural areas. This analysis also showed that there is a positive relation between household

size, which is normally large in rural areas, and water consumption based on the household

model, where adding one member to the household adds around one cubic meter to the

household consumption per month. This relation was negative based on per capita model, as

the household size gets bigger, the per capita water consumption decreases. The study

concluded that this finding reveals that the water consumption of a household increases

with the increase of its size, but the per capita consumption in the same household

decreases in parallel. This is explained as a result of an increase in the budget allocated to

water of the household budget but not at the same rate of increase as the size of the

household. The per capita model estimated that the increase of the household size will

reduce the water consumption by 13% per capita. It is important to address that the results

of the per capita model has better goodness-of-fit than the household model.

Looking at the aggregate data on the governorate level is also another way to investigate the

influence of urbanization on domestic water demand. Figure 25 presents the relation

between urban population and residential water consumption per capita per day for all

80

governorates for year 2006. The figure shows slight trend between the increase in urban

population and the increase in residential water consumption, and also a weak correlation

between both variables. Conversely, trying to investigate the relation between the

urbanization and water supply per capita provides a different opposite relation as illustrated

in Figure 26. Although, the trend line is more obvious in this case but the correlation is also

weak. A possible justification for those contradictory relationships is the NRW. In a trial to

explain this further, the relation between the rural population and NRW is drawn as shown

in Figure 27. This obviously demonstrates a better relation, which means that NRW increases

in the governorates with higher rural population. The longer water network expected in

those rural governorates means more possibility for higher physical losses. Additionally, it is

thought that illegal uses are higher in the rural areas than the urban ones.

Figure 25: Relation between urban population and residential water consumption for 2006

Figure 26: Relation between urban population and water supply for 2009 except of Aqaba

81

Figure 27: Relation between rural population and NRW for 2009

As household in the rural areas have garden and some agricultural activities inside house, it

is expected that water consumption and supply with be higher in those areas in comparison

to the more urbanized areas. Realizing that such water uses are expected to be higher during

summer season, the relation between the range of the seasonal variation of water supply

and the urbanization level is investigated. This relationship is drawn in Figure 28 for both:

the quarterly variation over 2009 (the difference between the smallest quarter and the

largest quarter water supply from the average water supply) and the seasonal variation over

2009 (the difference between the winter and the summer supply from the average water

supply), all measured relative to the average water supply. It can be seen that there is clear

trend, where rural areas witness larger variation in the seasonal water supply.

82

Figure 28: the relation between the rural population and the range of seasonal variation in

water supply for 2009

The distribution of population on urban and rural areas varies significantly among Jordan’s

governorates. Figure 29 shows the percentage of urban population to total population for

each governorate in 2003 and 2009. In, 2009, Karak and Mafraq have the lowest ratios of

urban population (35% and 29.2% respectively), while Zarqa and Amman are the most

urbanized governorates with 94.5% and 94% respectively. This obviously illustrated the large

variation among governorates; however the change in the percentage in urban population

within each governorate during over 6 years (2003-2009) is negligible with maximum

variation of ±0.5%. Similar pattern is expected to continue in future, which means that there

will be no influence of the distribution of urban and rural population factor on the base unit

of the per capita water consumption. Therefore, and based on all the investigations made to

quantify the influence of the urban and rural factor for forecasting the annual water

demand, concluded that there is no need to consider this factor to forecast the future

annual domestic water demand.

Figure 29: Percentage of urban population to total population in Jordan’s Governorate

over 2003-2009 (Source of data is DOS)

4. Household income

Water demand is expected to be positively associated with income. Salman et al. (2008)

found that increasing household income by 10% the household water consumption is

expected to increase by 0.2-0.3%. Additionally, drawing the relationship between average

household member income and total per capita water billed as illustrated in Figure 30 shows

that there is positive relationship indicating that the total per capita water billed will

83

increase as the average household income increases. Thus, the income factor is

recommended to consider in estimating the future domestic water demand.

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000

To

tal p

er

cap

ita

wa

ter

bill

ed

(lp

cd)

Average household member income (JD/year)

Figure 30: Relationship between the average household member income and total per

capita water billed

5. Continuity of water supply (water supply)

There is no enough documentation on the continuity of water supply in all Jordan

governorates. Available accurate data is limited to mainly Amman governorate, while Aqaba

and Ma’an governorates enjoy continuous water supply. Therefore, there is not enough data

to investigate this factor thoroughly. However, the quantity of the per capita water supply

could be used as an indicator for the water supply continuity, where areas enjoy longer

water supply duration are expected to consume more and have more water supply than

others.

84

Figure 31: Relation between water supply and residential water consumption excluding

Aqaba

6. Seasonal factor

Q1 and Q4 represent the winter season

Q2 and Q3 represent the summer season

There are clear variations between the water supply and billed water during the

summer and winter seasons and among governorates. The range of increase in

summer season is from around 2%

85

Figure 32: Quarterly water supply per governorate for 2009

Figure 33: Quarterly variation form the average water supply per governorate for 2009

86

Figure 34: Quarterly variation form the average billed water per governorate for 2009

Figure 35: Quarterly billed water per governorate for 2009

7. Level of economic activities

The local economic activities can be expressed through relating the ratios of non-residential

customer to total customers in each governorate. In order to investigate the relationship

between the level of economic activities and the domestic water consumption, two

relationships have been estimated for all governorates and for all governorates except Aqaba

which was an exceptional case for the statistical point of view. Figure 36 shows that there is a

high positive relationship between the ratio of non-residential end users to total with the total

per capita billed water, where the per capita billed water will increase as the level of economic

activities (in terms of billed water level).

R² = 0.9449

R² = 0.6641

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

To

tal p

er

cap

ita

bil

led

wa

ter

(lp

cd)

Ratio of Non-residential customers to total customers

All governorates

All Governorates except Aqaba

Figure 36: Relationship between the ratio of non-residential customer to total customer with

the total per capita billed water

Table 25 summarizes the factors affecting domestic water demand. Pollution growth,

household income, continuity of water supply (water supply) and level of economic activities

have the highest impact on the domestic water demand and are expected to change in future.

All of these factors can be considered factors with validity for forecasting purposes in the

future.

Table 25: Summary of factors affecting domestic water demand

Factor Level of influence Change in future Use for forecast

Population growth High Yes, continuous growth Yes

Water price Low Not specified but mostly No

88

will increase

Distribution of urban

and rural population

Moderate Minor on annual base No

Household income Moderate Yes Yes

Continuity of water

supply (water supply)

High Moderate to high Yes

Season High Cycle change with the

year only

No

Level of economic

activities

High Low to moderate Yes

4.2.1.2 Industrial Sector

1. Production capacity

This is an obvious factor that influences water demand. As the industrial productions volume

increases more water will be consumed. Plotting the historical industrial water use verses the

industrial production expressed in Jordanian Dinars deflated by Producer Price Index

(1999=100) on a log scale show that there is positive relationship between the industrial

production and water consumption as illustrated in Figure 37.

y = 0.1552x + 9.1247

R² = 0.3204

10.3

10.4

10.4

10.5

10.5

10.6

8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7

Ln (

Wa

ter

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

10

00

m3

))

Ln (Industrial production (Million JD))

Figure 37: Relationship of the industrial production and water consumption

89

It is important to address that there was a sudden increase happened only in 2007 due to non

justifiable increase in groundwater abstraction for industrial use in Azraq Basin from 0.3 to 8.6

MCM. Additionally, the abstraction rate for industrial use in Azraq Basin returned back to

around 0.3 MCM. Thus, relationship presented in Figure 37 is drawn after adjusting the 2007

figure by reducing the abstraction rate of 2007 by 8 MCM.

2. Technology ratio between water and production volume

Each type of industry has its water requirement. The water use intensity parameter is used to

express the technology ration between water and production volume, which is estimated by

dividing the quantity of water use by the production volume expressed in JDs. Reviewing the

estimated historical water use intensity for the main industrial groups in Jordan showed that

there are large fluctuation from year to year during 1994-2008, that require careful

consideration before adopting a value of water use intensity for each industry group. As

demonstration of this issue, Figure 38 shows the high variation of historical water use intensity

values for a sample of selected industries. In order to overcome the issue of data inaccuracy,

the values that are above or below the average ± 1 unit of the standard deviation of water use

intensity are excluded from estimating the value of the water use intensity for each industry,

which are presented in Figure 39. It can be seen that mining industry is the most intensive

industry of water use, while oil, gas and related products industry is lowest intensive industry.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Wa

ter

use

inte

nsi

ty (

m3

/10

00

JD

)

Oil & Gas Tobacco products Coke & refined petroleum products

Electrical machinery Machinery & equipment Vehicles

Figure 38: Historical water use intensity for sample of industries

90

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Coke & refined petroleum products

Oil & Gas

Tobacco products

Electrical machinery

Vehicles

Machinery & equipment

Publishing & printing

Wood

Furniture

Other transport equipment

Fabricated metal products

Leather

Textiles

Wearing apparel, dressing & dyeing of fur

Basic metals

Rubber and plastics

Paper

Electricity, gas, steam & hot water supply

Medical, precision and optical instruments, …

Food products and beverages

Other non-metallic mineral products

Chemicals

Mining and quarrying

Water use intensity (m3/1000 JD)

Figure 39: Estimated water use intensity for main industry groups

91

4.2.1.3 Tourism Sector

The main factors influencing the tourist water demand are:

1. Hotel classification

Normally, hotels have different facilitations that vary between from hotel to hotel. But

generally, hotels with same classification have common facilities. For example, most if not all

five stars hotels have water pools, large gardens, and other fancy facilities that consume larger

quantities of water. Hotels in Jordan are classified into classified hotels, Hotels Apartment &

Suites, Camping and Hostels. Table 26 presents a summary of key statistics of the number of

arrivals, number of nights occupied and number of rooms occupied for 2009.

Table 26: Summary statistics for the hotels nights, rooms, and arrivals in 2009

Classified

Hotels

Hotels Apartment

& Suites

Camps Hostels

No. of Arrivals 2,102,319 199,552 25,386 3,054

No. of Nights Occupied 4,010,064 789,872 32,009 3,054

No. of Rooms Occupied 2,503,196 344,325 17,353 1,687

Source: Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities

2. Water consumption per hotel bed occupied

Water consumption per bed occupied for each hotel group. Table 27 presents the adapted

demand rate per bed per day according to governorates by the NWMP, where water demand is

related to the hotel classification. Based on this table water consumption per bed per day can

be assumed to be 800, 350, and 180 liters for classified hotels, hotel apartment & suits and

hsotels respectively. The cams normally consume low amount of water and can be assumed to

be around 100 liter.

Table 27: Representative Net Tourist Demand (excluding physical losses)1

Governorate Comments Demand

(l/bed/day)

Aqaba Red Sea beaches, pools, aqua parks, golf courses, open spaces, staff

houses and residences, sports, commercial and cultural centres. 790-938

Balqa &

Madaba*

Dead Sea beaches, pools, tourist villages, youth camps, staff

houses. 196-247

Amman No beach, pools, landscaping. 350

1 Source: National Water Master Plan, MWI, 2004

92

Others No beach, no pools, no or little landscaping. 180

* Irrigation water use for landscaping purposes outside the hotels not included here.

3. Water consumption per hotel bed not occupied

There is no available estimation for water consumption per hotel bed not occupied in Jordan.

Thus, an assumption of 100 liter per day per bed is assumed.

4. Number of tourist

The number of tourists is basically affecting the occupancy rate. Figure 40 shows the historical

occupancy rates for the classified holes, hotel apartments & suites and hostels.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Classified hotels Hotel Apartment & Suiites Hostels

Figure 40: Historical occupancy rate for the different hotels Agricultural sector

4.2.1.4 Agricultural sector

There are different factors affecting agricultural water demand that can be grouped into the

following factors:

1. Type of irrigation and cultivation technologies

Irrigation technologies commonly used in Jordan include furrow, drip and sprinkler. Open

space, greenhouse and plastic tunnels are the most technologies used for cultivation or

93

production. Using different irrigation and cultivation technologies are influencing irrigation

water demand in two ways:

1- Irrigation water requirement

2- Irrigation water efficiency

Typical crops water requirements are presented in Figure 45, Figure 46 and Figure 47 which

vary depending on the climatic zone of plantation. However, using different irrigation and

cultivation technologies result in changing these typical water requirement. For example, using

drip irrigation system will need less water than using sprinkler irrigation system to irrigation

same crop. Table 28 shows the change in irrigation water requirement for the different most

common combination of using different irrigation and cultivation technologies.

Table 28: Change in Irrigation water requirement according to irrigation and cultivation

technologies in relation to standard water requirement

Irrigation technology

Production technology Surface Drip Sprinkler

Open space 0% -10% +10%

Greenhouse NA -10% +10%

Plastic tunnels NA -10% NA

NA: Not applicable

In addition to irrigation water requirement, the irrigation and cultivation technologies affect on

the irrigation water efficiency. Shatanawi et al. (2007) assessed the current on-farm irrigation

efficiency in the Central Jordan Valley to be as presented in Table 29. Another study carried out

by Battikhi and Abu-Hammad (1994) also estimated field irrigation efficiency for citrus and

vegetables as presented in Table 30. The current irrigation water efficiency of surface irrigation

is unexpectedly better then drip irrigation, which is explained by improper design and

maintenance of drip irrigation systems and not irrigating in accordance with crop water

requirement.

Table 29: On-farm water irrigation efficiency in Central Jordan Valley

Irrigation and cultivation technologies Irrigation water efficiency (%)

Surface irrigation (open space) 70

Drip irrigation (open space) 56

Drip irrigation (green house) 42

Center pivot irrigation (Desert )* 75.5-84

Source: Shatanawi et al., 2007

* Nazzal, Y.K. (1989)

94

Table 30: Field irrigation efficiency in Central Jordan Valley for citrus and vegetables

Irrigation and cultivation technologies Field irrigation efficiency (%)

surface irrigation (citrus) 82

surface irrigation (vegetables ) 64

Sprinkler (citrus) 88

drip irrigation (vegetables)

91

Source: Battikhi and Abu-Hammad, 1994

The total irrigated area in Jordan is estimated at about 81,000 hectares distributed between the

Jordan Rift Valley (JRV) of 31,000 hectares and the highlands and the desert areas (50,000 ha).

Table 31 and Figure 41 show the distribution of irrigation technology in Jordan Valley and

Highland in Jordan. It can be seen that drip and surface irrigation technology are dominant with

where around 63% and 33% respectively of those technologies are being used for irrigation.

The use of sprinkler systems is limited to forage and cereal production and does not exceed 4%,

(DOS, 2008).

Table 31: Distribution of Irrigation Technology in Jordan Valley and Highland in Jordan

Technology Drip Sprinklers Surface Irrigated

JV-Field Crops 4,359 886 20,401 25,646

JV-Vegetables 170,294 339 17,106 187,739

JV-Fruit Tress 60,506 0 38,626 99,132

Total JV 235,159 1225 76,133 312,517

HL-Field Crops 2,947 13880 10,522 27,349

HL-Vegetables 107,610 17338 13,392 138,340

HL-Fruit Tress 162,230 139 171,803 334,172

Total Highland 272,787 31358 195,717 499,862

JOR-Field Crops 7,306 14766 30,923 52,995

JOR-Vegetables 277,905 17677 30,497 326,079

JOR-Fruit Tress 222,735 139 210,429 433,303

Total Jordan 507,946 32583 271,850 812,379

Source: aggregated from DOS (2008). Jordan Agricultural Census 2007, Detailed Results.

Department of Statistics, Amman, Jordan.

95

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Drip Sprinklers Surface

Figure 41: Relative Distribution of Irrigation Technology in Jordan Valley and Highland in

Jordan

2. Agricultural area

This is a direct proportional parameter, in which the irrigation water demand increases linearly

with the agricultural area increase. Drawing the historical data of planted area and irrigation

water use from 1994 till 2008 for both upland region and Jordan Valley clearly demonstrates a

strong proportional relationship between the planted area and irrigation water use as

illustrated in Figure 42 and Figure 43 respectively.

96

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Wa

ter

use

(M

CM

)

Planted area (1000 Dunum)

Up-landField Crops

Vegetables

Fruit Tress

Figure 42: Relationship between planted area and irrigation water use in upland

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 50 100 150 200 250

Wa

ter

use

(M

CM

)

Planted area (1000 Dunum)

Jrdan ValleyField Crops

Vegetables

Fruit Tress

Figure 43: Relationship between planted area and irrigation water use in Jordan Valley

3. Cropping pattern and climatic zone

97

Crops have different water requirements that also vary depending on the climatic zone.

Normally crops planted in highlands or cold regions will need less water quantity than crops

planted in desert, low lands or warm regions. Figure 44 shows the agro-climatic zones in Jordan

which comprise of three major zones; Jordan Valley, highlands, and deserts. Most planted areas

are located in Jordan Valley and highlands. The planted part of the deserts is close to the

highlands climatic zone characteristics. Thus, highlands and planted deserts are grouped into

one category and named upland. The typical crops water requirements for field crops,

vegetables and fruit trees in uplands and Jordan Valley are presented in Figure 45, Figure 46

and Figure 47 respectively. It can be seen that crops water requirements are higher in the

upland area than the JV, where most of vegetable crop are cultivated in summer season and

does not benefit from effective rainfall.

98

Figure 44: Agro-climatic zones in Jordan

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Wheat

Barley

Lentils

Vetch

Chick-peas

Maize

Sorghum

Broom millet

Tobacco, local

Tobacco, red

Garlic

Vetch, common

Sesame

Clover, trifoliate

Alfalfa

Others field crop

m3/Dunum

Field Crops Jordan Valley Up-land

Figure 45: Typical field crops water requirement in upland and Jordan Valley

99

0 200 400 600 800

Tomatoes

Squash

Eggplants

Cucumber

Potato

Cabbage

Cauliflower

Hot pepper

Sweet pepper

Broad beans

String beans

Peas

Cow-peas

Jew's mallow

Okra

Lettuce

Sweet melon

Water melon

Spinach

Onion green

Onion dry

Snake cucumber

Turnip

Carrot

Parsley

Radish

Others Vegetables

m3/Dunum

Vegetables Jordan Valley Up-land

Figure 46: Typical vegetables water requirement in upland and Jordan Valley

100

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Citrus fruits

Olives

Grapes

Figs

Almonds

Peaches

Plums, prunes

Apricots

Apples

Pomegrantes

Pears

Guava

Dates

Bananas

Others fruit trees

m3/Dunum

Fruit Trees Jordan Valley Up-land

Figure 47: Typical fruit trees water requirement in upland and Jordan Valley

4. Water availability for irrigation (Competitiveness between sectors on fresh water)

This is a constraint factor that limits the irrigated lands. Jordan water strategy addressed that

the first priority is for drinking water, which covers domestic and tourist sectors, second priority

is for industrial sector and at the lowest priority is for irrigation. Thus, lower water quantities

will be allocated to irrigation under drought periods, which means lower agricultural areas will

be planted and so irrigated. In practice, this is mainly applied in JV where JVA puts constraints

on the size of the agricultural areas that could be planted when there is not enough water

available for irrigation due to drought occurrence or to the increase in domestic demand.

5. Water prices

There are three different types of water sources supply irrigation with three different pricing

structures. These are the irrigation water tariff in Jordan Valley, which is an increasing block

101

water tariff as presented in Table 32, the treated wastewater which is priced at fixed rate of

0.01 JD/m3, and groundwater tariff presented in Table 33.

Table 32: Irrigation water tariff structure in Jordan Valley

Usage Block (m3 per month) Irrigation Water Tariff (JD/m3

)

0-2,500 0.008

2,501-3,500 0.015

3,501-4,500 0.02

More than 4,500 0.035

Table 33: Groundwater tariff structure

No. Water Quantity (m3) Water Price (JD/m

3)

Licensed agricultural wells

1 0-150,000 cum Free

2 151,000-200,000 0.005

3 More than 200,000 cum 0.06

Unlicensed agricultural wells

1 0-100,000 0.025

2 101,000-150,000 0.03

3 151,000-200,000 0.035

4 More than 200,000 0.07

Agricultural wells in Al Azraq Area with specified quantities

1 Within specified quantities Free

2 > specified quantities but less than 100,000 0.02

3 More than 100,000 0.06

Brackish Water Wells

No. Water Quantity (m3) Salinity (ppm) Water Price (JD/m

3)

1 0 –150,000 Free

2 More than 150,000 1000 – 1500 0.015

3 More than 150,000 1500 – 2000 0.01

4 More than 150,000 > 2000 0.005

Governmental wells used for irrigation

Any quantity 0.025

Source: Underground Water Control By-Law No. (85) of 2002 and its amendments

Salman et al., (2001) assess the impact of water prices for different water qualities. The own-

price elasticity of surface water demand, is about -0.04 at the actual surface water price of

102

$0.049 per m3. This is a very low elasticity, but that is very largely a consequence of the very

low actual price at which it is evaluated. At the midpoint of the range of surface prices studied

($0.575 per m3), the own-price elasticity of surface water demand is about -.91. This means

that, starting at that price, an increase of 1% in the price of surface water will decrease the

quantity demanded by about 0.91%, so that demand is slightly inelastic (Figure 48). Using the

same procedure, the total water quantity demanded is regressed on surface water price,

holding the prices for brackish and recycled water constant. The over-all water demand

elasticity is -0.027, at the actual surface water price $0.049 per m3, but -0.42, at the average of

$0.575 per m3 of surface water. This means that, increasing the price of surface water by 1%

decreases the quantity demanded of all kinds of water by 0.42%.

Following the same procedure as for surface water, the results of varying the brackish and

recycled water prices are presented in Figure 49 and Figure 50, respectively. The best fitting

demand curve for brackish water is again linear as shown in Figure 49, whereas in the case of

recycled water the semi-log form fits best (Figure 50).

The price elasticities of demand of brackish and recycled water are estimated at –0.29 and -

0.43, at the actual water prices of $0.009 and $0.013 per m3, respectively, The price elasticities

of demand of brackish and recycled water, at the respective midpoint prices of $0.03 and

$0.017 per m3 are -1.01 and -1.21, respectively, so that demand is almost unitary elastic for

brackish water and elastic for recycled water (Table 11).

The price levels, at which the absolute value of the price demand elasticity is equal or greater

than one, were determined. The water price level at which the price elasticity of water demand

is unitary elastic was $0.0299 per m3 for brackish water and $0.11 per m3 for recycled water.

The effect of increasing brackish and recycled water prices on over-all water demand is an

elasticity of -0.01 with respect to the recycled water price and –0.06 with respect to the

brackish water price at the actual prices. Even at the midpoints of the ranges studied, the

elasticity is also small, being -0.07 with respect to the recycled water price and -0.03 with

respect to the brackish water price.

As a conclusion, it can be seen that as long as prices of water kept at their low levels for all

water qualities, the pricing policy will not be able to be used as an effective tool to reduce

water demand in the irrigated sector. This can be attributed to the high scarcity or shortage in

irrigation water quantity in investigated area.

Since all the applied irrigation water tariffs are considered low and it is not expected to

introduce a 2 to 3 folds increase in the different tariffs of irrigation water, the change in

irrigation water price is assumed to have limited impact on irrigation water demand. Therefore,

103

it is imperative to increase irrigation water prices at a makeable rate to make the pricing policy

effective in reducing water consumption.

Figure 48: Surface water demand curve for irrigation

Figure 49: Brackish water demand curve for irrigation

104

Figure 50: Recycled wastewater demand cure for irrigation

6. Water quality

Different irrigation water quality used in Jordan, which can be classified into:

• Fresh water: this water is of a salinity of less than 1000 ppm. Fresh water is used in

Northern Jordan Valley and uplands.

• Brackish: this water is of a salinity of more than 1000 ppm.

• Desalinated: This is a desalinated brackish water, which is used in different locations in

Jordan Valley and uplands

• Treated Wastewater & mixed with fresh water: treated wastewater is becoming more

and more as a major water source for irrigation particularly in Middle Jordan Valley,

where it is mixed with fresh water coming through King Abdulla Cannel.

Quality and salinity of water affect on the crop water requirement as well as on the type of

crops that could be planted. Figure 51 shows the different classifications of the corps tolerance

to water salinity that could be planted. As an example, Alfalfa, wheat and barley are different

crops that are moderately sensitive, moderately tolerant and tolerant respectively.

Citrus is heavily planted on Northern Jordan Valley while it is rarely planted in Middle Jordan

Valley where water is more saline and citrus could be planted using water with salinity of more

than 1000 ppm. Additionally, using saline water requires more water quantity.

105

Figure 51: Categories for classifying crop tolerance to salinity according to the United State

Department of Agriculture Salinity Lab

4.2.2 Evaluation of Future Water Demand

This section is based on the analysis carried out in section 4.2.1.

4.2.2.1 Domestic water demand forecasting

As concluded in section 4.2.1.1, four factors (population growth, household income, continuity

of water supply (represented by the water supply), and level of economic activities

(represented by the % of non-residential water billed to total water billed)) are considered to

be used as main factors that are affecting the total billed water for domestic sector. Data set on

the governorate level for years from 2001 to 2009 was used to create a relationship between

those factors and domestic water demand represented by the total water billed. The data for

the household income and water supply factors were divided by the number of population and

thereby the population growth factor became implied in those two factors. Data set was also

transferred into double log form in order to produce the elasticity directly for each factor. Then

a multi-regression analysis of the three factors (annual Income of household member, % of

non-residential water billed to total water billed and water supply per capita) was carried out.

The results of the regression analysis are presented in Table 34. The t-stat and P-values

presented in the Table 34 show that the results for the regression have very good level of

confidence that can be used to forecast future domestic water demand knowing the future

values of the influencing factors.

Re

lati

ve c

rop

yie

ld (

%)

106

It can be concluded that annual Income of household member, % of non-residential water

billed to total water billed and water supply are factors affecting on the total billed water for

domestic sector positively. The results show that as the household income increases by 100%

the rate of billed water will increase by 22%. The level of economic activities factor has

influence on water demand double the impact of the household income factor.. Additionally,

water supply increases by 100% the total domestic billed water would increase by 31%. This

ratio seems to be low due to the fact that the customers will not consume more than their

water needs.

Thus, the following equation can be used to forecast the domestic billed water

�� = ��. ��+ ��. ��_��

+ ��. ��+ ��. �� Equation 1

Where DBW is the domestic billed water per capita per day in liters (lpcd), HH_Income is the

average annual income of household member in JD, NResRatio is the percentage of non-

residential water billed to total water billed and WS is the total water supply per capita per day

in liters (lpcd). Since the DBW is influenced by the level of water supply which includes the

NRW, then there is no need to adjust for the NRW factor. In order to get the total annual

domestic billed water, the value of the DBW is multiplied by the number of future population

and the number of days in the year. Then by adding the administration losses, the total

domestic water demand (DWD) can be estimated as following

��= ��× ��× ��. ��+ ��× ��× ��. ��

Equation 2

Where DWD unit is meter cube per year, Pop is the number of population and ALRatio is the

Administration water loss to total water supply ratio (or NRW multiplied by the administrative

losses portion, which is normally assumed to be 50% of NRW by most water experts in Jordan).

Table 34: Relationship of total billed water for domestic sector as a function of Average

annual Income of household member, % of Non-Residential water billed to total water billed

and Water supply

Coefficients Standard

Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 2.164542 0.618072 3.502085 0.000682

Average annual Income of household

member (JD/yr) 0.220128 0.070202 3.135624 0.00223

% of Non-Residential water billed to total

water billed 0.450755 0.046661 9.660247 3.87E-16

107

Water supply (lpcd) 0.311092 0.064936 4.790784 5.54E-06

4.2.2.2 Industrial water demand forecasting

In section 4.2.1.2, it was found that the production capacity expressed in monetary value and

technology ration between water and production volume expressed in water use intensity are

the two factors affecting the industrial water demand. Industrial water demand can be best

forecasted if industrial production and water use intensity data is available for each industry

group using the following equation:

Equation 3

Where IWD is the industrial water demand in m3, Q is the industrial production expressed in

1000 JD adjusted by the Producer Price Index (1999=100), the WUI is the water use intensity

expressed in m3/1000 JD presented in Figure 39, i is the industry group.

If only gross industrial production is available, then using the historical data set of gross

production and water consumption for the years 1996 -2008 can be used to develop an

empirical equation to forecast the industrial water demand as following

Equation 4

The results of the regression parameters (t-stat and P-values) are presented in the Table 35. R

square is 0.8, which all indicate a good level of confidence that support using Equation 4 to

forecast the industrial water demand. In addition,

Table 35: Regression parameters of industrial water demand and industrial production

Coefficients Standard

Error t Stat P-value

Intercept -7.33539 0.482948 -15.1888 2.14E-37

Industrial production (100 JD) 1.090632 0.041861 26.05336 2.49E-73

4.2.2.3 Tourist water demand forecasting

As assessed in section 4.2.1.3, touristic water demand is a function of the water consumption

per hotel bed occupied which is also a function of the hotel classification and location, water

consumption per hotel bed not occupied and number of tourists. Based on these factors,

touristic water demand is best to be forecasted using Equation 5 below:

108

Equation 5

Where TWD is the tourist water demand in m3, WCOB is the water consumption of the

occupied hotel bed, B is the number of hotel beds, OR is the average annual occupancy rate in

%, WCNOB is the water consumption of hotel bed not occupied, and i is the hotel classification.

The limited available data on water consumption per hotel classification did not allow to

developed empirical relation to forecast water demand as the case of the domestic and

industrial water demands.

4.2.2.4 Agricultural water demand forecasting

Five out of six factors were assessed in 4.2.1.4 are mainly considered to affect the agricultural

water demand. These are the irrigation efficiency which is a function of the type of irrigation

and cultivation technologies, the planted area, crop water requirement which is a function of

the cropping pattern and climatic zone, water quality and water availability for irrigation. The

water availability for irrigation is constraint factor that result if having a ceiling for available

water for irrigation. Only irrigation water prices did not show a significant influence on

irrigation water demand, where demand is inelastic to irrigation water prices. Based on this

Equation 6 can be developed to estimate agricultural water demand.

Subject to WA Equation 6

Where AWD is the agricultural water demand, A is the area of planted crop, CWR is the crop

water requirement for each crop type (i), IE is the irrigation efficiency factor that depends on

the type of irrigation and cultivation technologies used (j), WQ is the water quality factor that

depend on the source of water (k), n, m and l are the number of crops planted, type of

irrigation and cultivation technologies used and sources of water respectively. WA is the water

availability factor that determines the maximum possible water quantity for irrigation water

use.

4.3 Climate Change Impact on Water Resources

Climate change is among the global environmental issues that has received most attention

across nearly all domains (political, media, scientific, and civil society). Although Jordan does

109

not contribute more than 0.1% to the causes of global climate change, its effects on the country

will be very severe. In fact, Jordan is particularly vulnerable given already scarce water

resources and high levels of aridity. Natural and physical systems in Jordan are already facing

heavy pressures, and these will only be intensified as temperatures in Jordan get higher and/or

precipitation gets lower.

Jordan is facing water scarcity problem and it is the most water-stressed region. The projected

impacts of climate change (such as more extreme weather events, decreased precipitation and

rising sea levels) will exacerbate this problem. There are severe environmental, economic,

political and security implications. Climate change is expected to primarily affect precipitation,

temperature and potential evapotranspiration, and, thus, is likely to effect the occurrence and

severity of droughts and flash floods. An important question for the assessment of future

impacts (i.e. socio-economic and environmental) is how changes in climate will affect the water

budget components in Jordan. Once the impacts on the hydrological cycle components are

understood, then, the impacts of climate change on the hydrological extremes (droughts and

floods) can be assessed. According to recent modeling studies (Abdulla et al., 2009; IPCC,

2007b; and WRI, 2005), the Jordan will face an increase of 2 to 5.5°C in the surface temperature

by the end of the 21st century. In addition, this temperature increase will be coupled with a

projected decrease in precipitation of between 0 and 20%. The results for Jordan include

shorter winters, dryer and hotter summers, a higher rate of heat waves, increased weather

variability, and a more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events.

4.3.1 Introduction

Climate change (CC) refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by

changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended

period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to

natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC, 2007a). Science established a causal

effect between the acceleration of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and CC effects (IPCC,

2007a), Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times,

with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004.

In its most recent report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that

“water and its availability and quality will be the main pressures on, and issues for, societies

and the environment under climate change” (Bates et al., 2008). Over the past decade,

evidence on global warming and the accompanying changes in the earth is mounting. The

IPCC’s fourth assessment report concludes that it is 90–99% likely that the rise in global

atmospheric temperature since the mid- 19th century has been caused by human activities

(IPCC, 2007a).

110

It is a well established fact that the temporal and spatial variability of freshwater resources is

very sensitive to possible changes that may occur in the climate mechanism due to global

warming. It is assumed that the frequency of extreme hydrological events (floods, droughts)

will increase in function of various climate change scenarios (Al-Weshah, 2008).

Hydrometeorological hazards such as floods and droughts affect many regions of the world, but

their impact in terms of lives lost and livelihoods disrupted tends to fall most heavily on the

poor in developing countries. Climate change threatens to heighten these impacts in many

areas, both by changing the frequency and/or intensity of extreme events and by bringing

changes in mean conditions that may alter the underlying vulnerability of populations to

hazards. The result in the decades to come may be an increase in the global burden of weather-

related disasters: events that can threaten the sustainability of development processes and

undermine progress toward poverty reduction.

Jordan is located in arid and semiarid zones and is known for its minimal annual rainfall, very

high rates of evaporation and consequently extremely insufficient renewable water resources

(Al-Weshah, 2008). Sustainable Management of water resources is a must as water scarcity is

becoming more and more a development constraint impeding the economic growth of the

country. Due to the expanding population in this century together with the increasing per

capita water demand and the huge socio-economic developments of the last three decades the

need for sustainable use and integrated management of Jordan's scarce water resources has

become an eminent condition for survival. Many of the surface and groundwater resources in

the country are drawn from shared rivers and aquifers respectively, complicating the situation

even further. The consequences of water scarcity and conflicts could lead to serious crisis and

possible confrontations, if they are not looked at, and dealt with, from a mandatory and

equitable sustainable approach.

For Jordan, the future projections using climate models point to an increase in temperature and

decrease in rainfall. Both present variability and long-term climate change impacts are most

severe in the developing world, the segment of world that is least able to buffer itself against

impacts. The impacts are particularly severe in countries, regions and communities where the

capacity to cope with, and adapt to, the hydrological effects of climate variability will influence

their overall development prospects.

Climate-related impacts on water resources are already being documented. Global climate

models predict a warmer planet. For Jordan, this could mean changes to our climate—

specifically temperature, evaporation, rainfall, and drought. Changes in climate will also likely

affect the availability of our water resources and our plans to meet expected demands for

water in the future. For surface water resources, the connection between climate and water

availability is clearer and more immediate, although it does have its complications, such as

changing land use associated with climate change.

111

The implications of climate variability and climate change have not been fully taken into

account in the current decision- making framework. Therefore, assessment of vulnerability and

consequent risk to water resources due to climate-change impacts is necessary to work out

proper adaptation and mitigation responses. The overall purpose of this study is to give a

general overview of the studied impacts of the projected climatic changes in Jordan, in order to

address some key points in the way of adaptation and mitigation planning.

4.3.2 Climate change, water resources and risk

The impact of climate change on freshwater resources according to the fourth assessment

report of the IPCC is given in Table 1 (IPCC, 2007d).

Table 36: Impact of climate change on freshwater resources (IPCC, 2007d)

Region/conditions Impact %

Change

Degree of

confidence

High latitude, some wet tropical

areas

Increase in annual average river

run-off and water availability

10-40 Very high

Dry regions at mid-latitudes and in

the dry tropical areas, some of

which are presently water stressed

Decrease in annual average river

run-off and water availability

10-30 Very high

Drought-affected areas

Increase in extent

Increase in frequency of heavy

precipitation events

Very high

Assessing the risk of climate change requires knowledge of the likelihoods of both climate

change and of its consequences. Within climate change studies, high uncertainty requires the

use of scenarios that are plausible but have no probability attached (Carter and La Rovere,

2001). For example, if greenhouse gas emission scenarios and climate change scenarios are

plausible with no further likelihood, then the consequences of those scenarios in terms of

impacts have the same limitations. This leads to a growing cascade of uncertainties associated

with a chain of consequences limited by the least predictable link (Jones, 2000).

The importance of viewing climate variability as a crucial ingredient of water resource

management has been clearly demonstrated by O’Connell and Wallis (1984). Climate variability

has always existed and shall continue to exist. Accordingly, the variability factor should be

recognized, analyzed and used in the process of water resource planning and management.

Here, what is important for planners today is to capture the major shifts in the climate and

incorporate them accordingly in future designs.

112

Both present variability and long-term climate change impacts are most severe in the

developing world, the segment of world that is least able to buffer itself against impacts. The

impacts are particularly severe in countries, regions and communities where the capacity to

cope with, and adapt to, the hydrological effects of climate variability will influence their overall

development prospects’.

The implications of climate variability and climate change have not been fully taken into

account in the current decision- making framework. Therefore, assessment of vulnerability and

consequent risk to water resources due to climate-change impacts is necessary to work out

proper adaptation and mitigation responses. The overall purpose of such an exercise is two-

fold: one, to define the environmental and ecological consequences of the disturbance in the

water cycle and water resource system, and two, to anticipate the impacts on the human

system at large.

The 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggested that countries in

the Middle East such as Jordan is likely to see a warmer climate, a decrease in mean annual

runoff, and an increase in the number of extreme drought events. All of these are likely to

affect the water resources of Jordan, including the groundwater resources. Similar potential

long-term impacts were defined in a study of climate change in Syria and Iraq. A climate change

impact study on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers predicts decreased rivers flows in both rivers by

as much as 30-50% (IPCC, 2007a). These studies indicate that the water supply may be

adversely affected by climate change during the 21st century.

A significant number of urban areas currently face similar challenges to fulfilling the demand of

critical natural resources (water, energy, food, etc.). This illustrates the strong need for a better

understanding and knowledge of the state of these resource pools, how they are likely to be

impacted by global environmental change, and the probable consequences of those impacts

upon urban areas. The water sector has postponed adaptation due to climate change

uncertainty. Although there is wide acceptance that water resources are sensitive to climate

change, managers have delayed accounting for climate change in their planning until the risks

are better known.

Climate change will impact water quality in arid and semi arid regions. It will:

• Increase extreme precipitation and flooding, which will increase erosion rates and

wash soil based pollutants and toxins into waterways.

• Contaminate coastal surface and groundwater resources due to sea level rise,

resulting in saltwater intrusion into aquifers.

113

• Increase water temperatures, leading to more algal and bacterial blooms that

further contaminate water supplies.

• Contribute to environmental health risks associated with water. For instance,

changes in precipitation patterns are likely to increase flooding, and as a result

mobilize more pathogens and contaminants. It is estimated that by 2030 the risk of

diarrhea will be up to 10 percent higher in some countries due to climate change

4.3.3 Climatic Trend in Jordanian watersheds

Previous studies investigated the weather records in Jordan showed an increase in the

magnitude and frequency of extreme temperatures (Abdulla and Al-Omari, 2008). Higher

temperature and lower precipitation are expected as a result of climate change: The main

results of the local climate change studies are:

• Trend analysis reveal that there is a slight increase in the mean annual temperature

• Mean annual maximum temperature tends to increase slightly, but the mean annual

minimum temperature tends to show higher increase

According to the Jordan’s Second National Communication to UNFCCC, the annual precipitation

showed decreasing trends by 5–20 % in the majority of the stations in Jordan during the last 45

years, but very few stations such as Ruwaished in the extreme east and Ras Muneef in the

northwest experienced an increase in the annual rainfall amount by 5 – 10 % (JSNC, 2009).

Larger rainfall amount with a decrease in the number of rainy days may lead to an increase in

the daily rainfall intensity and, thus, increasing the chance of recording extreme precipitation

values. On the other hand, many other stations experienced increasing number of rainy days

associated with decreasing annual precipitation amounts (JSNC, 2009). In this case a smaller

amount of precipitation will spread over a longer period of time and consequently the daily

rainfall intensity may be reduced. Increasing trends in relative humidity of about 4–13% during

the last three decades in the majority of the study locations are observed (JSNC, 2009).

4.3.4 Projected Climate Change in Jordanian Watersheds

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—an international group of climate

scientists—issued an assessment of projected climate change impacts around the world. This

report, the Fourth Assessment Report (FAR), estimates that the average temperature of the

114

Middle East region will increase by about 1 – 2 °C between 2030-2050. This would result in

higher evaporation rates, causing soil degradation across large areas of land in the region.

Jordan is a vast zone of generally diverse climatic conditions, characterized by very low and

highly variable annual rainfall and a high degree of aridity (FAO, 2002b). Most of Jordan lands

are classified as hyper-arid, semi-arid and arid land zones (WRI, 2002). Most recent

assessments have concluded that arid and semi- arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate

change (IPCC, 2007a).

For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2ºC per decade is projected for a range of IPCC

SRES emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had

been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1ºC per decade would be

expected (IPCC, 2007b).

According to climate change studies, Jordan will face an increase of 2ºC to 4.3ºC in the surface

temperature by the end of the 21st century. This increase will be coupled with a projected

decrease in precipitation from 0 to 20%. These projected changes will lead to shorter winters,

dryer and hotter summers, a higher rate of heat waves, a higher level of weather variability and

a more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events.

For Jordan, the future projections using climate models point to an increase in the mean annual

temperature by 0.85 to 1.0 °C in 2040, by 1 to 1.6°C in 2050, and by 3.8 to 4.3 °C in year 2100.

They also show a decreasing trend in annual precipitation by 10% to 20% in the Mediterranean

region and northern of the Arab peninsula.

Simulated ranges of warming for Arab region (IPCC 2007a), in the best scenario, By 2030,

annual average temperatures are 0.5 to 1.0 °C higher over most of Arab region, By 2070, the

increase in annual average temperatures will range from 1 to 1.5 °C, By 2100, the increase in

annual average temperatures is predicted to reach 2.5 to 3.0 °C. Model results indicate that

future increases in daily maximum and minimum temperature will be similar to the changes in

average temperature.

Preliminary climate change and climate variability scenarios for Jordan indicate that rainfall will

become intense and dry spells will become more pronounced.

According to (IPCC 2007) report, projected annual average ranges of precipitation tend toward

decrease in Jordan and its surrounding countries by 10% to 20 %. By using different general

circulation models (GCMs), Bou-Zeid and El-Fadel (2002) projected that by the year 2020,

Lebanon will witness a 15 per cent decrease in availability of water resources and a 6 per cent

increase in water demand for agriculture. Outputs of two GCMs models (Max Planck Institute

(MPI) and Hadley) suggested that by 2040 the mean annual temperature in Jordan is expected

115

to increase by 1.7 οC and 0.84 οC, respectively (Abdulla and Al Omari 2008). The output of these

models have been retrieved and extracted from the IPCC Data Distribution Center for climate

change studies. The monthly temperature and precipitation from the Hadley and MPI models

simulation of current conditions (1xCO2) were compared with observed data (1960-2000). In

Figure 52 the Hadley model output temperature for the current run is in a good agreement with

mean monthly temperature for the Zarqa River basin (Jordan), while the MPI tends to

overestimate the baseline temperature.

Temperature and precipitation adjustment statistics for both the Hadley and MPI model were

used for construction of climate change scenarios for the Zarqa River basin. Adjustment

statistics for difference between scenarios with doubling CO2 levels by 2040 and scenarios using

current CO2 levels for the MPI and Hadley models are presented in Table 37.

Figure 52: Comparison of baseline 1960-2000 average mean monthly temperature and 1×

CO2 GCM scenarios for Zarqa River Basin

Table 37: Statistical adjustment for difference between 2xCO2 and current (1xCO2) as

estimated Hadley and MPI models for Zarqa River basin.

Hadley Model MPI Model

Month Temperature

Difference

Precipitation

Ratio

Temperature

Difference

Precipitation

Ratio

January 1.43 0.73 1.04 1.07

February 0.98 0.84 0.49 0.64

March 1.29 1.05 0.37 1.28

April 0.71 1.28 1.17 0.91

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Months

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

MPI model

Hadley model

Observed

116

May 0.31 1.5 1.37 1.77

June 0.95 --- 2.29 ---

July 0.31 --- 2.26 ---

August 0.5 --- 2.74 ---

September 0.8 --- 2.51 ---

October 1.11 0.87 2.91 1.37

November 0.52 0.79 1.94 0.88

December 1.16 0.7 1.21 0.83

Average 0.85 1.63

4.3.5 Climate Change Impacts on Surface Water Resources of Jordan

The overall picture that emerges from the limited literature on Jordan and from IPCC (2007a)

projections indicates that water availability will be highly sensitive to climate change. Climate

change will have significant impacts on freshwater; affecting both availability of freshwater and

frequency of floods and droughts in Jordan. Climate change might undermine national

development plans, affect human security and livelihoods, significantly impact agriculture,

tourism and industry and act as a push factor in population movements and migration.

Furthermore, climate change is expected to negatively impair water quality (pollution of surface

water and seawater intrusion to groundwater aquifers). The expected changes will undoubtedly

have impacts on all the socio-economic and environmental goods and services that depend on

these variables either directly or indirectly.

Moreover, a warmer climate, with its increased climate variability, will increase the risk of both

floods and droughts (Wetherald and Manabe, 2002). Drought affected areas will probably

increase, and extreme precipitation events, which are likely to increase in frequency and

intensity, will augment flood risk. Increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts will

also have implications for sustainable development (IPCC, 2007a). Water shortage is already the

main constraint in most countries of the Middle East such as Jordan, and IPCC model

simulations indicate that water scarcity may worsen substantially as a result of future changes

in climatic patterns. The change in the value of surface runoff will depend on the changes in

temperatures and precipitation, among other variables. A study conducted by Abdulla and AL-

Omari (2008) showed that rising temperature by 2-4 °C in Jordan will reduce the flow of Zarqa

river between 12 and 40 %.

Climate change may significantly degrade surface water quality that intense rainfalls may

generate significant surface runoff that may carry significant sediment loads containing

pesticides, fertilizers, and wastes. This will increase siltation in steams lakes and

117

impoundments. Warmer water temperatures may have further direct impacts on water

quality, such as reducing dissolved oxygen concentrations. Cold-water species, such as most

salmon and trout, are particularly susceptible to warm water temperatures, and increasingly

frequent warm water conditions could bring new challenges to the way managed river systems

are controlled. Where stream flows and lake levels decline due to evaporative water losses, the

salinity of surface waters, especially in lakes and reservoirs with long residence times could

increase. These stresses on water quality will increase if climate change leads to longer dry

spells.

Abdulla et al. (2009) investigated the sensitivity of the Zarqa River Watershed (ZRW) (the

second largest river basin in Jordan) to potential climate change. The methodology adopted is

based on simulating the hydrological response of the basin under alternative climate change

scenarios. Utilizing the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) modeling environment,

scenarios representing climate conditions with ±20% change in rainfall, and 1oC , 2oC and 3.5oC

increases in average temperature were simulated and assessed. The study shows that climate

warming can dramatically impact runoffs and groundwater recharge in the ZRW. However the

impact of warming can be greatly influenced by significant changes in rainfall volume. In

another study, Abdulla and Al Omari (2008) investigated the impact of the climate change on

the monthly runoff of the ZRW (Jordan) using the Surface-inFiltration-Baseflow (SFB)

conceptual rainfall runoff model, and application of climate change scenarios (GCMs and

incremental scenarios). The climate changes were imposed with twelve hypothetical scenarios.

Two of these scenarios were based on the predictions of general circulation models (GCMs)

namely Hadley and MPI models (Table 2). The other ten scenarios are incremental scenarios

associated with temperature increased by +2C and +4C and changes in precipitation of 0%,

+10%, +20%, -10%, and –20%. These scenarios were used as a basis for observing causal

relationships among runoff, air temperature, and precipitation. Both sets of climate change

scenarios resulted in decreases in monthly runoff. Also, the timing of the peak flow is not

changed but the magnitudes of these peaks are reduced. Differences in hydrological results

among all climate cases are due to wide range of changes in climate variables. For example, the

GCM scenarios for 2x CO2 obtained from the Hadley and the MPI models resulted in similar

possible future river flows. Both models showed that the increase in temperature would reduce

the monthly runoff for the rainy season except for April (no change) and May (increase). The

overall trend indicated that mean annual runoff will be reduced by approximately 12% (for the

Hadley Model) and 40% (for the MPI model).

The percent changes of annual mean runoff as a function of temperature and precipitation

changes are shown in Table 38. The largest change in annual runoff in ZRW (reduced by 60% of

the current level) occurred when combining a +3.5oC with a –20% change in precipitation.

These results are similar to those reported by other researchers in the Middle East. For the

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incremental scenarios with temperature change from +2oC to +4oC and precipitation reduced

by 10%, the annual runoff will be deceased from about 40 to 60%. With decreasing

precipitation the effect could be critical, particularly during long and extreme droughts.

However, for incremental scenarios with temperature changes from +2oC to +4

oC, and

precipitation increased by 10%, the annual runoff shows a decrease from 10 to 30% (Table 38).

The annul runoff in the ZRW will increase to approximately 20% under the incremental scenario

in which the temperature +2oC and precipitation increased by 20% (Abdulla and Al Omari, 2008)

Table 38 summarizes the potential impact of climate change on surface water in terms of

corresponding changes in the mean annual flow. The results in this table were based on the

national communication reports to UNFCCC as well as published studies by research intuitions.

Table 38: Projected change in annual surface runoff in Jordan

Projected Temperature Change Precipitation

change % No change + 1 C + 2C + 3.5 C

- 20% -25% to -20.8 % -32.5% to -21.6 % - 22 % to -52% -60% to - 24 %

-10% -12.2 to -10 % -40% to -13.2 % -40% to -14% -50% to-15.5%

0.0% 0.0% -10% to -1.2% -2.4% to -25% -35% to -4.2%

+ 10% +12 to + 16.6 % + 15 to + 33% + 13.5 to + 20% -30% to + 11.1%

4.3.6 Climate Change Impact on Groundwater Resources of Jordan

There has been very little research on the impact of climate change on groundwater (Alley,

2001; Kundzewicz et al., 2007). There has been limited work on how climate change might

affect groundwater in Arid and semi-arid regions including the Arab Region. Effects of climate

change on recharge need to consider changes in precipitation variability and inundation

(Khiyami et al., 2005). Locally, recharge is a function of the precipitation, both in amount and

timing, the soil and vadose zone properties, evaporation, and transpiration. Recharge can also

be greatly affected by changes in land use, such as going from grassland or woodland to

agriculture. Outside of soil and vadose zone properties, climate change is expected to affect all

of these factors. The amount and timing of precipitation was previously discussed. Increases or

decreases in evaporation are a function of temperature as well as humidity, which is tied to

precipitation. Globally, increased CO2 in the atmosphere is expected to decrease transpiration

(Betts et al., 2007, and Leipprand and Gerten, 2006, both as cited by Kundzewicz et al., 2007);

however, transpiration will vary locally depending on the local changes in temperature,

precipitation, and vegetation type. Local increases in evaporation and transpiration could cause

increased salination of soils.

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The IPCC noted that there is no ubiquitous trend in groundwater systems that can be directly

correlated to climate change, primarily because of the lack of data (Kundzewicz et al., 2007).

We believe this is due, in part, to the uncertainties in estimating recharge and teasing out what

component of recharge is natural or influenced by land use change let alone changes in climate,

especially when those changes, current and projected, are of a much less magnitude than

natural variations. Furthermore, in many aquifers, it takes time for water to reach the water

table, and the water that reaches the entirety of the water table represents an integration of

past climatic conditions over years, decades, and perhaps centuries.

The consumption of groundwater is likely to become unsustainable. Already in many parts of

the world – certainly beyond the arid regions where the problem is most common – aquifer

drawdown is such that future reliance cannot be placed on this resource. According to the IPCC

the unsustainable depletion of groundwater will likely be worsened by reduced surface water

infiltration in the arid and semi-arid zones. In addition, the increase in the intrusion of salt

water to coastal aquifers from sea level rise will further reduce the availability of usable ground

water (IPCC, 2007f).

Climate change could affect groundwater resources by affecting recharge, pumping, natural

discharge, and saline intrusion. Some of these effects are direct, and some are indirect.

Recharge is an obvious parameter that is affected by climate change as it is closely tied to

precipitation. If there is more precipitation, there will probably be more recharge, and if there

is less precipitation, there will probably be less recharge. Moreover, sea-level rise will extend

the area of saline groundwater, resulting in a decrease in freshwater availability for humans

and ecosystems in coastal areas (Bobba, et al., 2000). In addition, groundwater recharge will

decrease considerably in some already water stressed regions (Doll and Florke, 2005).

According to a global study, recharge is expected to increase 2 percent worldwide (Döll and

Flörke, 2005). There is an overall increase in recharge because it is expected that there will be

an overall increase in global precipitation (more water is in global water cycle because of

melting ice). However, just as there will likely be areas with increased precipitation and areas

with decreased precipitation, there will be areas with increased and decreased recharge

depending not only on the precipitation patterns but also on the local hydrogeology

Climate change may have negative impact on the quality of groundwater. In coastal zones for

example, changing recharge patterns, including reduced long-term recharge and/or temporally

variably recharge, coupled with rising sea-level will increase the likelihood of seawater intrusion

thereby degrading the water quality in the aquifers. Moreover, increase sea level would also

lead to significant problems of dislocation of population. In Saudi Arabia, it is expected that the

sea water level will increase by 50 cm and this will result in losing 3747 hectare of costal area.

In Bahrain, raising sea water level will result in loosing 5%-10% of total area of the country.

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Climate change is likely to affect pumping in aquifers. Increases in temperature are expected to

increase the demand for water unless increases in precipitation offset that increased demand.

The increase in municipal and industrial use is likely to be less than five percent by the 2050s

(Mote et al., 1999, and Downing et al., 2003, both as cited by Kundzewicz et al., 2007). Global

irrigation demand is projected to increase from 1 to 3 percent by the 2020s and 2 to 7 percent

by the 2070s (Kundzewicz et al., 2007). Decreases in surface water supply due to climate

change may also increase groundwater use (Kundzewicz et al., 2007). If surface water resources

become temporarily or permanently unreliable, then groundwater, generally less susceptible to

climate variations than surface water, may become the preferred water supply, thus increasing

pumping. Climate change could also affect the natural discharge of water from aquifers to

springs, streams, and lakes. Setting aside, for the moment, the effects increased pumping have

on natural discharge, a decrease in transpiration with increased CO2 could result in increased

spring and base flow to rivers and streams. However, depending on how and where the

phreatophytes get their water (solely from the saturated zone or a combination of the

saturated and unsaturated, or vadose zone), increased temperatures and decreased rainfall

could increase groundwater transpiration and thus decrease spring flow and base flow.

Increased pumping due to climate change could also appreciably decrease natural discharge

and will very likely be the primary driver for decreased natural discharge, especially if

groundwater becomes the preferred source of water.

Preliminary climate change and climate variability scenarios for Jordan indicate that rainfall will

become intense and dry spells will become more pronounced. Increased rainfall intensity, is

expected to lead to reducing infiltration and potential aquifer charge. The potential impact of

climate change on groundwater was assessed in terms of corresponding changes in the mean

annual groundwater recharge in Zarqa River Watershed-Jordan (Abdulla et al., 2009). Similarly,

the potential impact of climate change on Azraq aquifer was assessed as part of the First

National Communication Report to UNFCCC. The potential sensitivity of aquifer recharge to

precipitation is summarized in Table 39. As can be seen the increase in surface temperature and

reduction in rainfall will result in 32-57.5 percent reduction in recharge in an aquifer located in

Jordan.

The results of these two studied are summarized in Table 39. The results indicated that if there

is no change in rainfall and there is an increase in temperature by 1◦C increase, groundwater

recharge will be reduced by 3.5%. These values reflect the increase in evapotranspiration rates

expected as temperature increases. If temperature increase is accompanied with decrease in

rainfall, the reduction in groundwater recharge will be obviously higher. A reduction of 10% in

rainfall results in a 32.3% reduction in groundwater recharge if temperature does not change

and a 33.7 to 38.9% reduction if temperature increases by 3.5◦C (Table 39). The impact will be

much greater for higher reductions in rainfall. A 20% reduction in rainfall would reduce

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groundwater recharge by 52.4% under no change in temperature and 57.5% reduction would

be observed if temperature increases by 3.5◦C (Table 4).

Increases in rainfall are expected to produce significant increases in runoff and groundwater

recharge. A 10% increase in rainfall is expected to result in 41.5% increases in groundwater

recharge, given no change in temperature. A3.5◦C increase in temperature would reduce the

recharge by 26.9%. Doubling the increase in rainfall to 20% with no increase in temperature

results in 89.8% increase in groundwater recharge (Table 39).

Table 39: Projected change in groundwater recharge in Jordan

Projected Temperature Change Precipitation

change % No change + 1 C + 2C + 3.5 C

- 20% -52.4 % -54.1 % - 56 % to -49% - 57.5 % to 51.9 %

-10% -32.3 % -34.1 % -36.2% to -30.3% -33.7 to -38.9%

0.0% 0.0% -3.5% - 6.6% to -4.4% -10.5% to -8.6%

+ 10% + 41.5 % + 37.3% +29% to + 33.2% +24% to + 26.9%

4.3.7 Conclusion and Recommendations

This section summarizes the climate variability, climate change projects and impacts on both

surface and groundwater resources in Jordan. The study was based on local studies either on

national level (Communication Reports to the UNFCCC) or from research intuitions. Other

sources of information were reports published by international agencies like the IPCC, UNDP,

UNEP, World Bank etc. In addition, limited individual published research articles in some Arab

countries were also reviewed. The objective of this study was to summarize some important

vulnerability issues water resources of Jordan associated with the present and potential future

hydrological responses due to climate change.

Unfortunately, water stress in Jordan is becoming a significant challenge for many sectors. The

situation is made worse where poor management practices collide with declining availability

occasioned by climate change and climate variability. From the above review, it can be

concluded that Jordan’s water resources is highly sensitive to climate change. Water resources

management in Jordan that is already severely water stressed faces new challenges and new

opportunities. Climate change will affect water scarcity and sustainable supply. It will:

• Increase water shortages due to changes in precipitation patterns and intensity. In

particular, Jordan is expected to become substantially drier. Reduced precipitation in

some arid regions could trigger exponentially larger drops in groundwater tables.

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• Increase the vulnerability of ecosystems due to temperature increases, changes in

precipitation patterns, frequent severe weather events, and prolonged droughts.

These factors, in turn, will further diminish the ability of natural systems to filter water

and create buffers to flooding.

• Affect the capacity and reliability of water supply infrastructure due to flooding, and

extreme weather. Most existing water treatment plants and distribution systems were

not built to withstand expected increased frequency of severe weather due to climate

change. Current infrastructure often does not have the capacity to fully capture this

larger volume of water, and therefore will be inadequate to meet water demands in

times of sustained drought.

5 Assessment of Existing Programs

This section intends to assess two existing programs/activities in the water sector aiming at

improving water efficiency and assess the cost-effectiveness of them.

5.1 Decentralization/Corporatization of Water and Sanitation Services

5.1.1 Case Description

Jordan is considered a leading country among the southern Mediterranean countries in Private

Sector Participation (PSP) and corporatization in the water sector, with the aim of

decentralizing the water utilities and improving efficiency. The reduction in water losses and

cost reduction are key indicators used to measure the impact of corporatization. Currently,

About 40% of its population receives water and wastewater services from a private provider

(Perard, 2008). With the increasing pressure on the governmental institutions to improve

productivity, the Jordanian government began its privatization program in 1997 as part of a

general reform process (Al-Zu’bi, 2006). In the water sector, the decline in international

assistance and the seeking of greater efficiency and new technologies made the government

look towards the involvement of the private sector (Al-Jayyousi, 2003). MWI and WAJ involved

the private sector in several forms and sectors as summarized in Table 40.

The adaptation of PSP in the Jordanian water sector started in 1999 with the management

contract of the largest water utility of the Greater Amman. The signed performance based

contract with Lyonnaise des Eaux–Montgomery Watson and Arabtech Jardaneh (LEMA) aimed

to improve operating effectiveness, water supply reliability and water quality, to reduce non-

revenue water and complaints’ response time and to attract capital for infrastructure

rehabilitation (NRW), (Al-Jayyousi, 2003). The contract was planned to be for 4 years has been

extended to the end of 2006 when the conditions were suitable to establish a limited liability

company called Miyahuna. The company is owned by WAJ and managed based on the modern

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commercial principles and private sector practices. WAJ is responsible for providing the

company with the bulk water supply and wastewater treatment in Al-Samra WWTP. Monitoring

Miyahuna’s performance was assigned to PMU which is foreseen to be more independent as a

formal regulatory agency (USAID, 2006).

Unlike Miyahuna, the fixed assets are transferred to Aqaba Water Company (AWC) established

in Aqaba Governorate in Aug 2004 as its revenue covers its total cost (OPEX and CAPEX), thus it

can afford the future capital investment required. To ensure proper coordination with

municipal plans Aqaba Development Company (ADC) owned a share of 15% in AWC to be as a

partner with WAJ. A similar partnership with Greater Amman Municipality is envisaged for

Miyahuna in a later stage (USAID, 2006). Other forms of PSP were introduced in the Jordanian

water sector as Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) based in Al-Samra wastewater treatment plant

(WWTP) and Disi water convey due to the difficulties in financing these projects (see Table 40

for the other PSP forms).

Prior to commercializing the water utilities and establishing companies, the decision makers

preferred to reform the utilities through adapting management contact, managing consulting or

service contract options as the case in Amman, NGWA and Madaba respectively. In addition,

similar initiatives for the other utilities are ongoing. However, in order to ensure satisfactory

private sector performance, it is important to measure it through the establishment of effective

regulatory frameworks, performance indicators and governance systems.

Table 40: PSP main initiatives in the Jordanian water sector

Location Date Sector Type of contract Private contractor Project

cost (M JD)

Amman Aug 1999-

Dec 2006

Water and WW

services

Management

Contract LEMA Consortium

1.6 /yr

As-Samra 2002-2027 WWTP BOT Degremont-Morganti 120

NGWA May 2006-

April 2009

Water and WW

services

Managing

Consulting Severn Trent and CEC

1.8 /yr

Aqaba Aug 2004 Water and WW

services

Public private

company

AWC (85% WAJ &

15% ADC)

1.5*

Zara-

Ma’in 2001-2007

Water treatment

& supply DBO Ondeo-Degremont

89

Madaba 2006-2009 Billing &

collection Service contract Engicon

0.3 /yr

Amman Jan 2007 Water and WW Public private Miyahuna (100% 3

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services company (O&M) WAJ)

Disi 2008-2033 Water supply BOT Gama Enerji A.S 770

Sources: USAID, 2008; Perard, 2006; Al-Zu’bi, 2006; Abu-Shams and Rabadi, 2003. * estimated

Except As-Samra WWTP BOT, Zarqa-Ma’in DBO and Disi BOT, all the remaining contribute to

the direct improvement of water utility efficiency. As mention above, NRW is a key indicator

that is envisaged to be improved as a result of PSP. A quick look at the historical NRW in each

water utility in Jordan shown in Figure 53, it can be concluded that Aqaba, Amman, Irbid,

Mafraq, Madaba, Jarash and Ajloun have demonstrated significant improvement in NRW.

Figure 54 illustrates this in different and better presentation, where the net change of NRW

over 2001-2009 for each water utility is drawn. The other utilities did not witness same trend of

improvement, on contrast the majority has increased NRW.

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

NRW Jordan

Irbid

Jarash

Ajloun

Mafraq

Amman

Zarqa

Balqa

Madaba

Karak

Tafileh

Ma'an

Aqaba

Figure 53: Historical Nonrevenue Water (NRW) in Jordan’s water utilities

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-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Irbid Jarash Ajloun Mafraq Amman Zarqa Balqa Madaba Karak Tafileh Ma'an Aqaba Jordan

Figure 54: NRW change over 2001-2009 in Jordan’s water utilities

Obviously, it can be seen strong trend in the NRW improvement and the introduction of PSP in

those water utilities witnessed the improvement. Of course, this improvement is most likely to

be influenced by other factors such as the water networks rehabilitation, the density of

subscribers, water supply availability per capita, the type of customers (small or large, as the

case in Aqaba which has few large customers consume most of the water supply), etc.

Therefore, there is a need to find another approach to measure water utility efficiency that

accounts for the combined influence of all these factors. Al-Assa’d and Sauer (2010) carried out

an assessment of the Performance of Water Utilities in Jordan, in which the relative

performance of the Jordanian water utilities is measured and the major factors behind their

inefficiencies are investigated. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Tobit model were used at

two stages to assess the Jordanian water utilities. At the first stage DEA as a comparative

performance measurement tool was used to evaluate the utilities’ efficiency and to investigate

the utilities’ scale effect on efficiency. At the second stage Tobit model is applied to determine

the impact of the non-controllable factors on utilities’ inefficiencies where the efficiency score

is the dependent variable in the regression.

The results of the assessment showed that Aqaba and Jarash are the most efficient utilities in

the water sector compared with the others, while Amman (Miyahuna) is the most efficient

utility in the wastewater sector. The utility size has relatively moderate effect on the relative

performance. However, it is concluded that the medium utility size for water sector and large

utility size for wastewater sector is the most appropriate. Tobit model results indicate that

corporatization activities have a clear positive impact on efficiency improvement for both

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sectors (water and wastewater). However, the assessment did not quantify the corporatization

impact on the utility performance.

5.1.2 Cost effectiveness

There are clear qualitative and quantitative evidences as described above that showed that

corporatization has positive impact on improving water utilities’ performance in Jordan.

However, there is neither a rigorous assessment made nor a direct approach available to

evaluate the whole benefit of this impact. Corporatization has many benefits that some of them

can directly be quantified such as NRW reduction, O&M cost reduction; while many others

cannot directly be quantified such as customers’ satisfaction increase, improve level of service,

etc. Out of all these benefits, it can be urged that NRW is the most significant benefit that also

could be easily quantified. On the other hand, many will argue that salary cost increases after

corporatization more than the normal increase, but this additional cost will not be incorporated

in the assessment as salary increase is considered a need to keep and attract professional staff

in the water sector. Thus, the cost effectiveness analysis will be based mainly on the benefit

accrued from reducing water losses (incremental water saving) and annual cost of

corporatization project (initial cost distributed on 5 years at 10% discount). Since the change in

NRW does not only occur as a result of corporatization, the assessment is also based on two

scenarios:

1. Scenario I: All the water saving is attributed to corporatization

2. Scenario II: 50% of the water saving is attributed to corporatization

Table 41 presents the inputs used to carry out the cost effectiveness analysis. The NRW ratio for

the year previous to the start date/year of corporatization is used as the base year value for

NRW. Each year change in NRW from the base year ratio is calculated to estimate then the

incremental water saving in volume. The total monetary value of water saving is evaluated at

current prices using a unit cost of water service provision estimated at 0.89 JD/m3 and the total

volume of water saving. These estimations are made for both scenarios and then the net

benefit is then estimated. As indicators for cost effectiveness Net Present Value (NPV) and

Internal Rate of Return (IRR) are calculated. The NPV is estimated at a discount rate of 10%. The

results of the assessment are presented in Table 42, and the detailed analysis is presented in

Appendix I: Cost effective analysis. IRR should be used as the first indicator then the NPV to

remove the size influence on deciding which initiative is most cost effective. The assessment

showed that 2 out of the 5 corporatization initiatives are cost effective. The results showed that

establishing water companies is the most cost effective then other forms. IRR for Miyahuna

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Company is considered high because the corporatization project cost is relatively small to its

size of operation.

Table 41: Cost effectiveness analysis inputs

Corporatization Start Date End date Annual

cost (M JD)

Duration

(year)

Base

year

Base year

NRW

Amman Management

Contract Aug 1999 Dec 2006 1.6 7 1999 50.0%

NGWA Managing

Consulting May 2006 April 2009 1.8 3 2005 43.5%

Aqaba Water

Company Aug 2004 Dec 2009 0.4* 5 2004 29.9%

Madaba PSP 2006 2009 0.3 4 2005 45.1%

Miyahuna Company Jan 2007 Dec 2009 0.79* 3 2006 39.6%

* As there is only initial cost, it is distributed on 5 years using 10% discount rate

Table 42: Cost effectiveness analysis results

At 100% of saving At 50% of saving Corporatization

Total water

saving (MCM)

Total saving

(M JD) NPV IRR NPV IRR

Amman Management

Contract 29.07 25.87 5.49 27.3% -1.15 4.8%

NGWA Managing

Consulting 1.36 1.21 -3.57 NA -4.02 NA

Aqaba Water

Company 4.31 3.83 0.86 33% -0.33 -2.1%

Madaba PSP -0.39 -0.35 -1.19 NA -1.07 NA

Miyahuna Company 9.53 8.48 4.41 186.4% 1.22 79.8%

NA: Not applicable as IRR cannot be calculated

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5.2 Participatory Irrigation Management (PIM)

5.2.1 Case description

Participatory Irrigation Management, PIM, is an important approach to improve the

management efficiency of water resources, water conveyance and its use. Such improvements

bring about savings in water use, reduce losses, boost productivity per unit water flow, and

reduce the cost of production. Its role becomes all the more important for countries

undergoing water strain, particularly highly indebted countries, and for food exporting

countries that have to compete in domestic and foreign markets. Experience gained from

several countries employing PIM indicates that introducing participatory elements in the

relationship between decision makers (mostly government officials), stakeholders and end

users of water is an essential factor for success.

Governmental efforts towards an improved utilization of the scarce water resources focused on

water administration on one side, and on supply management on the other. A detailed account

of water administration and parallel legislation has been presented. Water management

focused on supply management before demand management started to gain attention in the

late 1990s. Concerted action that included the involvement of stakeholders was initiated in

1997 under a French sponsored project in the North Jordan Valley whereby farmers on a lateral

main were given jurisdiction over irrigation water distribution among themselves. Other

attempts were undertaken by the Jordan Valley Authority, JVA, under a German sponsored

project. More water users’ involvement was attempted in cooperation with the World Bank in

the early 2000.

Those attempts followed general guidelines provided by the World Bank and scored modest

success. Subsequent surveys and analyses of traditional management models within irrigation

communities throughout Jordan provided the basic understanding of more suitable starting

points for participatory management approaches in the Jordanian social and economic

environment. One major finding of these surveys was that situations and indigenous solutions

differ - even within Jordan - in a way that may call for more than one single, standardized

approach towards the introduction of water users' participation in management decision

making.

Meaningful steps toward introducing PIM to the Jordan Valley irrigation project were

attempted as part of Water Management in Irrigated Agriculture (WMIA) project undertaken by

the Jordan Valley Authority with support extended by GTZ, the Corporation for Technical

Cooperation of the Federal Republic of Germany. The following overview of the project

provides understanding of the starting point for shifting from a top-down oriented water

management towards PIM. The subsequent detailed analysis highlights the elements of the

underlying concept and explains the positive outcome of the project.

129

Jordanian attempts to consider end users' input in irrigation management in the Jordan Valley

were of two prones. The first started in 1998 with the so-called TO2 Pilot project in the area of

Adassiya and focused on the improvement of hydraulic features in on-farm water distribution.

The direct incorporation of farmers' views was restricted to a consultation via a rapid rural

appraisal in 2000. Elements of the project were changes in the management of the water

network by the JVA as well as in the technical set-up of irrigation within the farms. The JVA

contributed to the project by adjusting the capacity of flow limiters to the design value

(reduction from 9 l/s (liter per second) to 6 l/s), by improving its management of pumping

stations, distribution interfaces on the farm gate and by a more efficient control of irrigation

orders. Farmers profited from subsidized, improved irrigation equipment and additional

training. Results were, however, not satisfactory because of the social drag inherent in that

environment. Officially registered Water Users Communities (WUC), which did not exist in

Jordan prior to that date, were considered as a potential structural add-on for improving the

situation, but the majority of farmers in the pilot area seemed "to reject the transfer of the

management to a farmer's organization".

Another attempt was to involve farmers in irrigation management focused on a participation

role that goes beyond them receiving information and extension services on improved irrigation

methods. The project on "Water Resource Management in Irrigated Agriculture" (WMIA), which

started in 2001 with support from GTZ, tries to support the creation of farmer-owned Water

Users’ Associations, WUAs, in the Jordan Valley by building on traditional and informal

cooperation structures in rural societies in Jordan. The attained results so far support the

expectation that the adopted approach may bridge the predominantly technical improvements

in water resource management pursued by the above TO2 project and its follow-on Kafa'h

project which started in 2003.

5.2.2 Cost effectiveness analysis

In all sixteen areas with WUA which are distributed throughout the Jordan Valley (includes

southern Ghors south of the Dead Sea), farmers and JVA state a considerable improvement of

the situation. Farmers are satisfied with a better water distribution and JVA generally admits

that their duty has become much easier. Both farmers and JVA state that efficient water

distribution requires organized water user communities. The increasing number of WUAs and

the related expansion of irrigated surface within farm units under their management prove the

economic and social viability of the undertaking, and the sincere positive outlook by the

beneficiaries and JVA alike. The thorough analysis of the current situation in the wake of the

WMIA project identified in particular three objectives as the basis for economic improvements

in irrigated agriculture and the use of water resources:

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1. an improved management of irrigation services in terms of reliability of infrastructure

and water delivery,

2. A technically rehabilitated and improved water distribution network, and,

3. A responsiveness of water distribution to the demand of the individual farms.

To assess the improvement of water services under the WUA format four indicators are

identified. These are: (a) the percentage of operational water meters and (b) the joint control

of water consumption by farmers and the JVA, (c) the number of farm units where water

consumption deviates from target volumes, and, (d) the recurrence of repair and maintenance

incidents in the pressurized water conveyance system per year. Using these indicators, the

current state after 3 years of first experience with WUAs and the attained level of PIM can be

described as follows:

(a) Regular water distribution depends on an internal control of flow and allocations to the

agricultural units. A visual inspection of flow in the Jordan Valley system is not possible

because water flows pressurized in buried pipes. The volumetric checks can be achieved

cumulatively with bulk water meters installed at the outlet of pumping stations and

individually by water meters at the farm turnout assembly. These farm turnouts had

formerly been the subject of wide-spread recurrent manipulation, destruction of water

meters, and removal of flow limiting devices. A first activity in the northern areas (with

relatively clean water) was the rehabilitation of water meters following the request of

farmers and their declared commitment to protect them. In this regard, the percentage of

operational water meters remains in the north close to 100% as compared to practically

nil before the WUA creation. Only one Association has a long history of 3 years; the others

are more recent and may not yet be considered for a credible evaluation.

(b) Farmers in areas under the management of WUAs check their water meters at regular

intervals - usually biweekly - in all communities, and the announced water consumption is

in line with the expectations for the relevant community areas by the JVA.

(c) The JVA uses - among other criteria - target values of water consumption as a criterion for

imposing penalties. If a water meter shows excessive values, penalties are imposed and

made public within the community. The Operation and Maintenance, (O&M) -

Directorates register the number of penalties and communicates them to the WUAs. In

most of the areas the number of penalties is largely reduced immediately following the

establishment of a water user association. Occasional relapses of penalties are subject to

discussions in meetings between the WUAs and the JVA.

131

(d) Areas under the joint management of WUAs and the JVA show a significant drop in the

cases of destruction of elements in the water distribution infrastructure, i.e. water

meters, valves and pipes. Causes for flaws in the water distribution are subject to

discussions in the regular joint meetings. These discussions provide the JVA with useful

information on technical problems in the local water distribution network, and reduce

repair frequencies and costs. The registered maintenance cases in Turn Out (TO) 28 area

for example, were until 2002 on a level of about 425 cases per year. With an increasingly

efficient cooperation between the JVA and the WUA that number dropped to about 200

cases annually, i.e. a drop of more than 50%. In another area of the middle Jordan Valley

(TO 50), the rate of 175 maintenance cases in 2003 dropped to 60 in 2004, about one

third of the former value.

A comprehensive quantitative evaluation of contributions to the second objective, i.e. the

water distribution according to the demand of individual farms, is not yet possible due to the

lack of representative and quantitative information on farming systems before and after the

introduction of the participatory elements in irrigation management. But observations on the

changes in decision-making by farmers provide indirect indications. Farmers compensate risks

in water supply, as practiced under the earlier management set-up by the JVA, by:

(a) the construction of water ponds for intermediate water storage of water, which does not

only reduce the available area for cultivation but is also a source for secondary pollution

that has an impact on filter and on-farm irrigation systems

(b) over-irrigation, i.e. the attempt to store as much as possible water in the soil, which

causes not only excessive water consumption but also negatively affects plant

development and thus yields and

(c) refraining from investments that would otherwise be profitable under a reliable water

supply .

Observations from the pilot TO 28 show that about 50% of the farms abandoned ponds and

connected their field irrigation system directly to the Farm Turnout Assembly, FTA, within 2

years after the establishment of their WUA. The already stated decrease of cases of excessive

water use compared to the JVA's target values of water consumption point to the decrease of

over irrigation. An example from two further selected pilot areas shows that the number of

greenhouses, which are a typical investment in irrigated agriculture, increased significantly in

the years after the introduction of participatory elements to water management (Table 43).

Two additional reactions of farmers to counteract risk from water supply are the introduction

of fallow on parts of their fields as a buffer zone and the choice of crops that are less profitable,

but also are less sensitive to periods of drought. A quantification of effects that materialized

132

from participatory management is not yet possible due to the lack of representative data on

the pilot areas, but a case study from an irrigation area helps to highlight the implications.

The study compared the optimal use of water and irrigated area in extent and crops under the

assumption of a) the water supply under full control of the JVA and b) the steering of water

supply by a farmers' committee, which considers individual farm demands. The model-based

analyses considered the observed cropping patterns before the introduction of WUAs as the

basis for the first assumption and allowed for optimal cropping patterns for the second. Results

anticipated a significant increase in crop intensity and cultivated area (Table 44).

A further important effect was the change in the elasticity of water prices. Model results and

the consequential functions of water demand indicated that participatory irrigation

management substantially increased the profitability of sensitive reactions to changes in water

prices (Table 44). This implies that PIM does not only contribute to improved incomes from

agricultural production but also supports the market-driven optimal allocation of the scarce

water resources throughout the Jordanian economy.

5.2.3 Conclusions

The successful and promising process of introducing participatory structures into the irrigation

scheme of the JVA allows already for some useful suggestions on required elements in the

management, even if the process in Jordan has not yet matured. Experience of the WMIA

project points to the following cornerstones:

• Promotional programs for explaining the advantages of participatory irrigation

management are essential initial activities for successful transfer programs. This can be

done through meetings, workshops, and the distribution of pamphlets.

• The election of a WUAs’ first set of directors is a critical action for the future of the

association. When the directors are representative of the membership and have

leadership capacity and managerial spirit, the WUA will likely be successful.

• Successful transfer requires an appropriate legal framework. This framework must

clearly define the rights to water, forms of organization, the responsibilities of each

party, and the manner in which activities should be regulated.

• A transfer program should be accompanied by continuous training for both WUA

directors and their operating staff.

• The transfer of responsibilities and tasks from governmental organizations - like the JVA

in Jordan - to WUAs requires a concurrent restructuring of the public agency. Staff, skills

and management structures will have to be redirected to the new fields of services,

133

which comprise the solution of operational problems, negotiations on questions of

water management between WUAs, the technical and organizational support of WUAs

and the enforcement of national water laws.

Table 43: Number of greenhouses in selected pilot areas of th e Jordan Valley

Number of greenhouses in areas with water user communities and percentage increase

Area 2003 (base line) 2004 2005

TO 50 3245 (100%) 3850 (119%) 4459 (137%)

TO 55 1678 (100%) 1962 (117%) 2067 (123%)

Source: GTZ (2004).

Table 44: Model-based estimations of impacts from Participato ry Irrigation Management (case study from the southern Jordan Valley)

Indicators Unit Before PIM After PIM

Price elasticity % 1.3 1.7

Total cultivated area Ha 268.6 388.3

Crop intensity % 82 118

Total Revenue US$ 844,532 1,138,979

Source: Al-Habbab & Al-Absi (2003)

134

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7 Appendices

7.1 Appendix I: Cost effective analysis

Amman Management contract 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 IRR

Water supply 91,337,107 93,601,069 94,091,543 106,251,701 118,536,066 119,869,739 121,953,318

NRW 50.3% 52.9% 47.5% 48.5% 44.6% 42.5% 39.6%

Saving from base year (260,951) (2,733,530) 2,399,103 1,557,546 6,450,205 8,964,941 12,695,214

Annual cost (M JD) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6)

Total saving at current prices (M JD) 25.87

Net cash flow (M JD) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) 24.3 27.3%

Net cash flow at 50% of saving (M JD) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) (1.6) 11.3 4.8%

NGWA Managing Consulting 2006 2007 2008 IRR

Water supply 59,578,566 62,096,356 66,207,197

NRW 43.0% 41.5% 43.7%

Saving from base year 252,122 1,253,514 (142,748)

Annual cost (M JD) (1.8) (1.8) (1.8)


Net cash flow (M JD) (1.8) (1.8) (0.6) #NUM!

Aqaba Water Company 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 IRR

Water supply 15,012,503 14,285,763 15,403,611 15,872,720 16,602,699

NRW 27.5% 24.6% 25.5% 23.6% 21.0%

Saving from base year 361,864 761,274 690,528 1,012,336 1,481,767

Annual cost (M JD) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4)


Net cash flow (M JD) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) 3.4 33.0%

Net cash flow at 50% of saving (M JD) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) 1.5 -2.1%

Madaba PSP 2006 2007 2008 2009 IRR

141

Water supply 6,369,242 6,862,897 7,364,422 7,801,763

NRW 40.4% 45.8% 49.2% 49.6%

Saving from base year 299,192 (44,397) (296,631) (348,919)

Annual cost (M JD) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3)

Total saving at current prices (M JD) (0.35)

Net cash flow (M JD) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.6) #NUM!

Miyahuna Company 2007 2008 2009 IRR

Water supply 124,791,505 128,706,388 133,549,511

NRW 35.8% 37.9% 37.7%

Saving from base year 4,766,524 2,209,237 2,556,069

Annual cost (M JD) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8)


Net cash flow (M JD) (0.8) (0.8) 8.7 186.4%

Net cash flow at 50% of saving (M JD) (0.8) (0.8) 4.0 79.8%

Documents

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