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evsjv‡`k Dbœqb mgx¶v
LÐ 34 evwl©K msL¨v 1423
evsjv‡`‡k wewfbœ `„k¨K‡íi Aax‡b A_©bxwZ-we¯Í…Z I
Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve: wmwRB (CGE) g‡W‡ji cÖ‡qvM
‡mwjg ivqnvb*
1| f‚wgKv
MZ wZb `k‡K MYbv‡hvM¨ mvgwMÖK fvimvg¨ (wmwRB) g‡Wj cÖv‡qvwMK A_©‣bwZK
we‡køl‡Yi GKwU ¸iæZ¡c~Y© nvwZqv‡i cwiYZ n‡q‡Q| wmwRB g‡Wj mgMÖ Drcv`b Kvh©µg,
Drcv`‡bi wbqvgK I Drcv`bKvix cÖwZôvb we‡ePbvq wb‡q ‡Kv‡bv ‡`‡ki A_©bxwZ ev we‡kl
A‡ji Dci A_©‣bwZK bxwZ cwieZ©‡bi mvgwMÖK cÖfve g‡Wwjs‡qi GKwU mgwšZ Dcv‡qi
e¨e¯’v K‡i| G ai‡bi g‡W‡j Ab¨vb¨ welqI AšÍf©y³ _v‡K †hgb- evRvi I mvgwóK A_©‣bwZK
Dcv`vbmg~n (wewb‡qvM I mÂq, †jb‡`b fvimvg¨ Ges miKvwi ev‡RU)| G g‡W‡ji AviI
myweav n‡jv GKvwaK A_©‣bwZK AvšÍ:ms‡hvM AšÍf©y³ Kivi my‡hvM _v‡K, hv Dbœqb bxwZ
cwieZ©‡bi aviv I †m¸‡jvi cÖwZ KvVv‡gvMZ cÖwZwµqv e¨vL¨vq Kv‡R jv‡M|
wmwRB we‡kølY mweNœ evwÂZKiY KvVv‡gvi AvIZvq ewn¯’ AwfNv‡Zi cÖfve g~j¨vq‡bi
my‡hvM m„wó K‡i| GB g‡W‡ji g~‡j i‡q‡Q Av‡cwÿK g~j¨ cwieZ©‡bi m¤§yLxb wewfbœ A_©‣bwZK
Dcv`v‡bi (†hgb: Lvgvi I cwievi ev Lvbv) AvPiY eY©bvKvix GK¸”Q mgxKiY| µgea©gvb
evRvi †Kw›`ªK A_©bxwZ‡Z g~‡j¨i cÖ‡f` cÖwZ‡hvwM Kvh©µ‡g m¤ú` cyb:e›U‡bi me©v‡cÿv
¸iæZ¡c~Y© Drm n‡Z cv‡i, hv cieZx©‡Z †M․wYK Av‡qi (Drcv`‡bi DcKiYg~n †_‡K †h Avq
cvIqv hvq) cwieZ©b NUv‡Z cv‡i, Avi Gfv‡e e¨w³MZ Avq eȇbiI cwieZ©b NUv‡Z cv‡i|
¯^Zš¿ cvwievwiK †Mvôxi Kj¨vY I `vwi`ª¨ cwiw ’wZi Dci cvwievwiK MÖƒcmg~‡ni e¨w³MZ Avq
eÈb I †fv³vi g~j¨ m~P‡K cwieZ©‡bi wewfbœ cÖfve _vK‡Z cv‡i| GB †cÖÿvc‡U GB cÖe‡Ü
wewfbœ `„k¨K‡íi AvIZvq bxwZRwbZ I cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZRwbZ cÖfve D`NvU‡b
evsjv‡`‡ki A_©bxwZ‡Z wmwRB g‡Wj e¨envi Kiv n‡q‡Q| `„k¨Kí¸‡jvi AšÍf©z³ n‡jv k‡m¨i
Drcv`bkxjZv e„w×, kÖg-wbweo ißvwb Pvwn`v e„w×, cwievimg~‡ni Rb¨ mvgvwRK myiÿv eve`
eivÏ e„w× Ges cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ| Dc‡i DwjøwLZ welqmg~n we‡køl‡Y 2012 mv‡ji Rb¨
cÖ¯‘yZK…Z mvgvwRK wnmve †g․j (Social Accounting Matrix-SAM) mgwšZ Z_¨fvÐvi
wn‡m‡e e¨eüZ n‡q‡Q|
* Aa¨vcK, A_©bxwZ wefvM, XvKv wek¦we`¨vjq|
evsjv‡`k Dbœqb mgx¶v
28
2| M‡elYv c×wZ
wmwRB g‡Wj
evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡WjwU PEP Av`k© wbðj g‡W‡ji1 Dci wfwË K‡i wbg©vY Kiv
n‡q‡Q| G g‡W‡j cÖwZwU wk‡íi cÖwZwbwaZ¡kxj Lvgvi Drcv`b cÖhyw³i Dci wfwË K‡i
gybvdv‡K m‡e©v”PKiY K‡i _v‡K| LvZ wfwËK Drcv`b wjIbwUd (Leontief) Drcv`b Av‡cÿK
†g‡b P‡j| cÖ‡Z¨K wk‡íi g~j¨ ms‡hvRbx weKívqb evQvB‡qi aªƒe w¯’wZ¯’vcKZv Abyhvqx †h․wMK
kÖg I †h․wMK g~jab wb‡q MwVZ| weKívqb cÖhyw³i aªƒe w¯’wZ¯’vcKZv Abymv‡i wewfbœ ai‡bi
kÖg‡K Am¤úbœ weKívq‡bi mv‡_ msnZ Kiv nq| †h․wMK g~jab n‡jv wewfbœ ai‡bi g~jab
weKívq‡bi aªƒe w¯’wZ¯’vcKZvi mgšq| Abygvb Kiv nq, ga¨eZ©x DcKiYmg~n m¤ú~Y©iƒ‡c
cwic~iK Ges G¸‡jv‡K Leontief Drcv`b Av‡cÿK †g‡b msnZ Kiv nq|
cvwievwiK Avq ev Lvbv Av‡qi Drm n‡jv kªg Avq, g~jab Avq Ges Ab¨vb¨ Drm †_‡K
M„nxZ n ÍvšÍi Avq| cvwievwiK Avq †_‡K cÖZ¨ÿ Ki ev` w`‡j cwiev‡ii e¨q‡hvM¨ Avq cvIqv
hvq| cvwievwiK mÂq n‡”Q e¨q‡hvM¨ Av‡qi ‣iwLK Av‡cÿK, hv Mo mÂq cÖeYZv †_‡K
Avjv`v cÖvwšÍK mÂq cÖeYZvi my‡hvM m„wó K‡i|
Ki‡cv‡ikb Avq Ki‡cv‡ik‡bi g~jab Av‡qi Ask Ges Ab¨vb¨ Drm †_‡K cÖvß n ÍvšÍi
Av‡qi mgš‡q MwVZ nq| ‡gvU Avq †_‡K e¨emvwqK AvqKi ev` w`‡j cÖ‡Z¨K ai‡bi
e¨emv‡qi e¨qhvM¨ Avq cvIqv hvq| Abyiƒcfv‡e e¨q‡hvM¨ Avq †_‡K Ab¨vb¨ Dr‡m n ÍvšÍi
cÖ`v‡bi ci †h Aewkóvsk _v‡K Zv n‡jv e¨emvwqK mÂq|
miKvi cvwievwiK ev e¨w³MZ ch©v‡q cÖ`Ë Ki, e¨emv cÖwZôv‡bi Dci avh©K…Z AvqKi,
cY¨ I Avg`vwb ïé Ges Drcv`b Lv‡Zi Ab¨vb¨ ïé n‡Z Avq K‡i _v‡K| Lvbv eve` †nvK
Avi e¨emv eve` †nvK, AvqKi‡K mvwe©K Av‡qi •iwLK Av‡cÿK wn‡m‡e eY©bv Kiv nq|
miKv‡ii PjwZ ev‡RU D×…Ë ev NvUwZ n‡jv (abvZ¥K ev FYvZ¥K mÂq) n‡jv miKv‡ii ivR¯^
Avq I e¨‡qi cv_©K¨| e¨q ej‡Z G‡R›U‡`i‡K cÖ`Ë n ÍvšÍi Ges cY¨ I †mev eve` PjwZ
e¨q‡K †evSvq|
wek¦ n‡Z Avq MwVZ nq Avg`vwb g~j¨ eve` cwi‡kvwaZ A_©, g~jab Av‡qi Ask we‡kl
Ges Af¨šÍixY Dr‡mi n ÍvšÍi mgš‡q| Af¨šÍixY A_©bxwZ‡Z we‡`kx e¨q n‡jv ißvwb g~j¨
eve` e¨q Ges Af¨šÍixY wewfbœ Dr‡m n ÍvšÍi| we‡`k ‡_‡K cÖvwß/Avq I e¨‡qi Zdvr n‡jv
Aewkó we‡k¦i mÂq, hv cig/Abv‡cÿK g~‡j¨ PjwZ ‡jb‡`b fvimvg¨ ev wnmve w¯’wZi mgvb,
wKš‘y wecixZ iƒcx|
1 ‡`Lyb www.pep-net.org
ivqnvb: evsjv‡`‡k wewfbœ `„k¨K‡íi Aax‡b A_©bxwZ-we¯Í…Z I Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve
29
`ªe¨ I †mevi Pvwn`v (Af¨šÍixYfv‡e Drcvw`Z ev Avg`vwbK…Z †nvK) n‡jv Lvbv †fvM
Pvwn`v, wewb‡qvM Pvwn`v, miKvwi Pvwn`v Ges cwienY Pvwn`v ev evwYR¨ Pvwn`vi †hvMdj ev
mgwó| Abygvb Kiv nq †h, Lvbvmg~‡n Stone Geary Dc‡hvwMZv Av‡cÿK (†hLvb ‡_‡K •iwLK
e¨q c×wZ cvIqv hvq) we`¨gvb _v‡K| wewb‡qvM Pvwn`vi AšÍf©y³ n‡jv †gvU ¯’vqx cuywR MVb
Ges Bb‡fbUix‡Z cwieZ©b|
Drcv`bKvixi †hvMvb AvPiY CET Av‡cÿK AvkÖ‡q cÖwZdwjZ nq: EaŸ© ¯Í‡i mvKzj¨
Drcv`b ¯Zš¿ cY¨mg~‡n wbe× Kiv nq; wb¤œ ¯Í‡i cÖwZwU c‡Y¨i †hvMvb Af¨šÍixY evRvi I
ißvwb evRv‡ii g‡a¨ wefvwRZ| g‡WjwU ÿz ª-‡`k AbywgwZ †_‡K Avjv`v| ¯’vbxq †Kv‡bv
Drcv`bKvix wek¦ evRv‡i we`¨gvb cY¨ g~‡j¨i (evwn¨K) Zzjbvq c‡Y¨i myweavRbK bZzb g~j¨
wba©viY K‡i wek¦ evRv‡i Zvi AskMÖnY e„w× Ki‡Z cv‡i| cÖwZ‡hvwM c‡Y¨i Zzjbvq cÖ¯ÍvweZ
c‡Y¨i weKívqb gvÎvi Dci wbf©i Ki‡e KZ mn‡R wZwb wek¦evRv‡i Zvi AskMÖnY e„w× Ki‡Z
cv‡ib| Ab¨K_vq, GUv wbf©i Ki‡e ißvwb Pvwn`vi g~j¨-w¯’wZ¯’vcKZvi Dci| Af¨šÍixY
evRv‡i †hme c‡Y¨i Pvwn`v Av‡Q, Zv n‡jv ‡h․wMK (K‡¤úvwRU) cY¨ Ges ¯’vbxqfv‡e Drcvw`Z
I Avg`vwbK…Z cY¨| GB `yB ai‡bi c‡Y¨i gv‡S we`¨gvb Am¤ú~Y© weKívqb- weKívqb
ms‡hvMKvix Av‡cÿ‡Ki aªƒe w¯’wZ ’vcKZvi gva¨‡g cÖwZdwjZ nq| ZvB ¯^vfvweKfv‡eB
Avg`vwb evRv‡i cÖwZ‡hvwMZvi m¤§yLxb bq Ggb c‡Y¨i †ÿ‡Î ‡h․wMK (K‡¤úvwRU) `ª‡e¨i Pvwn`v
n‡jv Af¨šÍixYfv‡e Drcbœ ª‡e¨i Pvwn`v| G c×wZ‡Z Af¨šÍixY evRv‡i cÖ‡Z¨K c‡Y¨i †hvMvb
I Pvwn`vi gv‡S fvimvg¨ _vKv PvB| d¨v±i evRv‡ii fvimvg¨ _vKv PvB| mvgwMÖK wewb‡qvM e¨q
Aek¨B G‡R›U‡`i m‡qi †hvMd‡ji mgvb n‡e| cwi‡k‡l cÖwZwU c‡Y¨i ißvwb evRv‡i ‡hvMvb
n‡e Pvwn`vi Abyiƒc ev Pvwn`vi mv‡_ m½wZc~Y© |
2.1| evsjv‡`‡ki mvgvwRK wnmve †gŠj (Social Accounting Matrix) 2012 Gi mswÿß
eY©bv
G cÖe‡Ü 2012 mv‡ji Rb¨ cÖ¯‘ZK…Z evsjv‡`‡ki mvgvwRK wnmve †g․j e¨envi Kiv
n‡q‡Q| G wnmv‡ei AšÍf©y³ i‡q‡Q : (1) 10 ai‡bi `ª‡e¨i ‡gvU Af¨šÍixY †hvMvb; (2) 10
ai‡bi Kvh©µ‡gi Drcv`b wnmve; (3) Drcv`‡bi 4wU wbqvgK- `yB ai‡bi kÖg Ges `yB ai‡bi
g~jab; (4) 4wU PjwZ cÖvwZôvwbK G‡R‡›U g‡a¨ (Lvbv I AjwMœK…Z g~jab, K‡cv©‡iU ms¯’v,
miKvi Ges Aewkó wek¦) PjwZ GKvD›U UªvbRvKkb; Lvbv wnmv‡e AšÍf©y³ i‡q‡Q 7wU
cÖwZwbwaZ¡kxj MÖæc (MÖvg GjvKvi 5wU I kni GjvKvi 2wU); Ges (5) GKwU mgwšZ g~jab
wnmve| evsjv‡`‡ki mvgvwRK wnmve †g․‡ji MVb mviwY 1-G eY©bv Kiv n‡q‡Q|
evsjv‡`k Dbœqb mgx¶v
30
mviwY 1
2012 mv‡ji Rb¨ cÖ¯‘ZK…Z evsjv‡`‡ki mvgvwRK wnmve †gŠ‡ji eY©bv
†mU DcKiYmg~‡ni eY©bv
Kvh©µg (10) km¨ I dmj, cïm¤ú` I gvsmRvZ cY¨, Lwb I D‡Ëvjb,
cÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨, e ¿ I †cvkvK, nvév g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis, fvix
g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis, Dc‡hvM I wbg©vY, cwienb I †hvMv‡hvM,
Ab¨vb¨/wewea †mev
`ªe¨ (10) km¨ I dmj, cïm¤ú` I gvsmRvZ cY¨, Lwb I D‡Ëvjb,
cÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨, e ¿ I †cvkvK, nvév g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis, fvix
g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis, Dc‡hvM I wbg©vY, cwienb I †hvMv‡hvM,
Ab¨vb¨/wewea †mev
Drcv`‡bi wbqvgKmg~n (4) A`ÿ kÖwgK, `ÿ kªwgK, g~jab I f~wg
Lvbvmg~n (7) MÖvg GjvKv: f~wgnxb, cÖÖvwšÍK K…lK, ÿz`ª K…lK, e„nr K…lK, K…wlewnf©~Z
kni GjvKv: ¯^í wkwÿZ cwievi cÖavb wewkó Lvbv, D”P wkwÿZ
cwievi cÖavb wewkó Lvbv
Ab¨vb¨ cÖwZôvbmg~n (4) miKvi, Ki‡cv‡ikb, Aewkó wek¦ (AvšÍR©vwZK), g~jab
Drm: ivqnvb (2014)
2.2| 2012 mv‡ji mvgvwRK wnmve †gŠj Abyhvqx A_©bxwZi KvVv‡gv
mviwY 2-G 2012 mv‡ji mvgvwRK wnmve †g․‡j cªwZdwjZ A_©bxwZi KvVv‡gvi Abyiƒc
evsjv‡`‡ki A_©bxwZi KvVv‡gv †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| g~j¨ ms‡hvR‡bi w`K w`‡q K…wl Lv‡Zi AšÍf©y³
DcLvZmg~‡ni g‡a¨ kxl© DcLvZ n‡jv km¨ I dmj DcLvZ (11.3 kZvsk);
g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis/Drcv`b Lv‡Z kxl© DcLvZ n‡jv e¯¿ I †cvkvK (7.55 kZvsk); Ges †mev Lv‡Z
kxl© DcLvZ n‡jv cwienb I †hvMv‡hvM (27.65 kZvsk)| e¯¿ I †cvkvK LvZwU e¨vcKfv‡e
ißvwb †Kw›`ªK| ißvwb-Szwo e¨vcKfv‡e ‡K› ªxf’Z, †Kbbv 88.12 kZvsk ißvwb Av‡m e¯¿ I
†cvkvK LvZ †_‡K| fvix Drcv`b LvZwU e¨vcKfv‡e Avg`vwb wbf©i| ïé nv‡ii †ÿ‡Î Drcv`b
Lv‡Zi Zzjbvq K…wl Lv‡Z ïé nvi Kg i‡q‡Q|
ivqnvb: evsjv‡`‡k wewfbœ `„k¨K‡íi Aax‡b A_©bxwZ-we¯Í…Z I Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve
31
mviwY 2
2012 mv‡ji mvgvwRK wnmve †gŠ‡j cÖwZdwjZ A_©bxwZi KvVv‡gvi b¨vq evsjv‡`‡ki A_©bxwZi KvVv‡gv
LvZ 1 2 3 4 5 6
Vi/TV Ei/Oi Ei/TE Mi/Oi Mi/TM TAR
km¨ I dmj 11.33 0.42 0.56 9.09 8.05 4.52
Mevw` cï I gvsmRvZ ªe¨vw` 1.25 0.07 0.01 2.25 0.25 8.22
Lwb I D‡Ëvjb 6.60 0.16 0.08 2.20 0.75 7.61
cÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨ 1.34 1.53 1.59 15.96 10.87 13.38
e¯¿ I †cvkvK 7.55 51.68 88.12 17.57 19.70 25.33
nvjKv g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis 1.74 2.41 1.44 20.83 8.22 19.59
fvix g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis 0.99 1.17 1.26 60.96 43.16 11.77
Dc‡hvM I wbg©vY 16.86 - - - - -
cwienb I †hvMv‡hvM 27.65 2.87 6.30 2.42 3.49 -
Ab¨vb¨ †mev 24.69 0.28 0.63 3.65 5.52 -
‡gvU 100.00 ― 100.00 ― 100.00 ―
UxKv: Vi=LvZwfwËK g~j¨ ms‡hvRb, TV=‡gvU g~j¨ ms‡hvRb, Ei=LvZwfwËK ißvwb, Oi=LvZwfwËK
Drcv`b, TE=‡gvU ißvwb, Mi=LvZwfwËK Avg`vwb, TM=‡gvU Avg`vwb, TAR=U¨vwid nvi|
me¸‡jv msL¨v kZKiv nv‡i e¨³ Kiv n‡q‡Q|
Drm: ivqnvb (2014)|
3| evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb I Zvi djvdj
evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡Wj e¨envi K‡i Pvi ai‡bi „k¨Kí cwiPvjbv Kiv n‡q‡Q| †m¸‡jv
n‡jv (K) dmj Drcv`bkxjZv 20 kZvsk e„w×, (L) kÖg wbweo ißvwb Pvwn`v 25 kZvsk e„w×,
(M) cwiev‡ii mvgvwRK myiÿvi we`¨gvb eivÏ wظY Kiv, Ges (N) cÖvK…wZK `y‡hv©M AwfNv‡Zi
`iæb A_©bxwZi g~jab ÷K 5 kZvsk n«vm|
3.1| `„k¨Kí 1: dmj Drcv`bkxjZv 20 kZvsk e„w×
`„k¨Kí 1 Gi AvIZvq wmwRB g‡W‡j GK¸”Q AbywgwZ Av‡ivc Kiv n‡q‡Q, †hLv‡b ‡gvU
f~wg ÷K, Ki nvi, ‡gvU Bb‡fbUix, miKvwi mÂq I PjwZ wnmve fvimvg¨ n‡jv evwn¨K Avi
mvKzj¨ wewb‡qvM e¨q I mvKzj¨ cÖK…Z miKvwi e¨q n‡jv Af¨šÍixY| g~jab LvZwfwËK we¯Í…Z|
kÖ‡gi †hvMvb w ’i gRywi nv‡i bgbxq| b~¨bZg wewbgq nvi n‡jv g‡W‡ji AwfwnZ g~j¨|
km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNv‡Zi mvgwóK A_©‣bwZK cÖfve wPÎ 1-G †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| ‡`Lv
†M‡Q, km¨ Lv‡Z G ai‡bi abvZœK Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNv‡Zi d‡j cÖK…Z wRwWwc 2.66 kZvsk
e„w× cv‡e| mvgwMÖK Drcv`b I Af¨šÍixY weµ‡qi Dci GKB ai‡bi cÖfve co‡e| cÖK…Z
evsjv‡`k Dbœqb mgx¶v
32
wewbgq nv‡i AePq NU‡Z cv‡i Ges ga¨eZ©x DcKiY e¨q I cÖv_wgK d¨v±i cwie¨q n«vm cv‡e,
hvi d‡j ißvwb 2.24 kZvsk e„w× cv‡e| AwaKš‘ wRwWwc AemviK (GDP deflator) 2.3
kZvsk n«vm cv‡e|
wPÎ 1: km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNv‡Zi Kvi‡Y cÖavb mvgwóK A_©‰bwZK PjKmg~‡ni Dci cÖfve
(% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
Drm : evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
mviwY 3-G A_©bxwZi cÖavb LvZ †f‡` Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi cwigv‡Yi Dci cÖfve
‡`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| me‡P‡q ‡ewk BwZevPK cÖfve jÿ Kiv †M‡Q K…wlLv‡Z †h‡nZz Drcv`b I
ißvwb h_vµ‡g 8.5 kZvsk I 25.2 kZvsk e„w× cv‡e| hv‡nvK Af¨šÍixY Drcv`b e„w× cvIqvi
d‡j K…wl Lv‡Z Avg`vwb 16.6 kZvs‡k n«vm cv‡e| wkí I †mev Dfq Lv‡ZB Drcv`b I
ißvwb‡Z BwZevPK cÖfve co‡e| Z‡e me‡P‡q ‡ewk cÖfve co‡e wkí Lv‡Zi Drcv`b I
ißvwb‡Z|
mviwY 3
Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ KZ…©K) Dci km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNvZRwbZ cÖfve
(% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
LvZ Drcv`b ißvwb Avg`vwb
K…wl 8.5 25.2 -16.6
wkí 2.0 2.1 0.5
‡mev 1.3 1.3 1.9
mKj LvZ 2.7 2.2 -0.9
Drm : evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
2.66
2.71
2.71
2.75
-2.30
-1.94
-2.39
-2.36
cÖK…Z wRwWwc
‡gvU Drcv`b
(cwigvY)
ißbx cwigvb
‡`kR weµq
(cwigvY)
wRwWwc
AemviK
wewbgq nvi
(cÖK…Z)
ga¨eZx©
Drcv`‡bi e¨q
cÖv_wgK
Drcv`‡bi e¨q
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
ivqnvb: evsjv‡`‡k wewfbœ `„k¨K‡íi Aax‡b A_©bxwZ-we¯Í…Z I Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve
33
mviwY 4-G wefvwRZ LvZ ch©v‡qi cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| km¨ I dmj Lv‡Z m‡e©v”P
abvZ¥K cÖfve jÿ Kiv †M‡Q G Lv‡Z Drcv`b I ißvwb h_vµ‡g 11.8 I 28.9 kZvsk e„w×
cv‡e| LvZ †Kw›`ªK AvšÍ:ms‡hvM I Drcv`‡bi wbqvgKmg~‡ni cyb:eȇbi `iæY Dc‡hvM I
wbg©vY LvZ e¨wZZ Ab¨ mKj Lv‡ZI BwZevPK cÖfve co‡e| Ab¨vb¨ K…wl wfwËK DcLvZmg~‡ni
g‡a¨ 'cïm¤ú` I gvsmRvZ c‡Y¨iÕ Dci eo cÖfve cwijwÿZ n‡e; wkí DcLvZmg~‡ni g‡a¨
ÕcÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨Õ Ges Õe ¿ I †cvkvKÕ DcLv‡Zi Drcv`b 2.3 kZvsk e„w× cv‡e; †mev †Kw›`ªK
DcLvZmg~‡ni g‡a¨ m‡e©v”P abvZœK cÖfve cwijwÿZ n‡e ÕcwienY I †hvMv‡hvMÕ †ÿ‡Î Avi
Gi cÖavb KviY n‡jv eo AvKv‡ii AvšÍ:ms‡hvM cÖfve|
mviwY 4
Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ KZ…©K) Dci km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNvZRwbZ cÖfve
(% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
LvZ Drcv`b ißvwb Avg`vwb
km¨ I dmj 11.8 28.9 -18.3
Mevw` cï I gvsmRvZ ªe¨vw` 4.3 10.8 -8.3
Lwb I D‡Ëvjb 1.2 2.0 -1.4
cÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨ 2.3 2.1 0.6
e¯¿ I †cvkvK 2.3 2.2 0.4
nvjKv g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis 1.5 1.1 1.0
fvix g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis 0.9 0.7 0.5
Dc‡hvM I wbg©vY -0.5 - -
cwienb I †hvMv‡hvM 2.5 1.4 2.5
Ab¨vb¨ †mev 1.6 0.9 1.6
‡gvU 2.7 2.2 -0.9
Drm : evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
wPÎ 2-G km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNv‡Zi Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| km¨ Lv‡Zi
Drcv`bkxjZv e„w×i Kvi‡Y kÖwgKiv (`ÿ I A`ÿ) K…wl LvZ †Q‡o hv‡e Ges wkí I †mev
Lv‡Z †hvM`vb (reallocated) Ki‡e A_©©vr K…wl LvZ †_‡K wkí I †mev Lv‡Z kÖ‡gi ¯’vbvšÍi
NU‡e| `ÿ I A`ÿ Dfq ai‡bi kÖwg‡Ki Kg©ms¯’vb h_vµ‡g 1.75 I 0.7 kZvsk e„w× cv‡e
weavq mvgwóK ch©v‡q Kg©ms¯’v‡bi Dci abvZœK cÖfve co‡e|
evsjv‡`k Dbœqb mgx¶v
34
wPÎ 2: Kg©ms ’v‡bi Dci km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
Drm : evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
wPÎ 3-G cÖwZwbwaZ¡kxj cwiev‡ii cÖK…Z Av‡qi Dci cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| me †kÖYxi
cwiev‡ii cÖK…Z Avq e„w× cv‡e| MÖvgv‡j Avq me‡P‡q †ewk e„w× cv‡e f~wgnxb cwiev‡ii Ges
kniv‡j e„w× cv‡e ¯^í-wkwÿZ cwievi cÖavb wewkó cwiev‡ii Avq| G †_‡K ‡evSv hvq †h,
km¨ wfwËK K…wl‡Z abvZ¥K Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNvZ evsjv‡`‡ki A‡cÿvK…Z `wi`ª cwievi¸‡jvi
Rb¨ me©vwaK mydj wb‡q Avb‡e|
wPÎ 3: cwievimg~‡ni cÖK„Z Av‡qi Dci km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve
Drm : evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
3.2| `„k¨Kí 2: kÖg wbweo ißvwb Pvwn`vi 25 kZvsk e„w×
GB „k¨K‡í kÖg wbweo ißvwb Pvwn`vi †ÿ‡Î 25 kZvsk e„w× we‡ePbv Kiv n‡q‡Q| GB
†cÖÿvc‡U wmwRB g‡W‡j GK¸”Q ch©ewmZ AbywgwZ Av‡ivc Kiv n‡q‡Q, hLv‡b ‡gvU f~wg ÷K,
Ki nvi, ‡gvU Bb‡fbUix, miKvwi mÂq I PjwZ wnmve fvimvg¨ n‡jv evwn¨K Avi mvKzj¨
wewb‡qvM e¨q I mvKzj¨ cÖK…Z miKvwi e¨q n‡jv Af¨šÍixY| g~jab LvZwfwËK we¯Í…Z| kÖ‡gi
†hvMvb w ’i gRywi nv‡i bgbxq| b~¨bZg wewbgq nvi n‡jv g‡W‡ji AwfwnZ g~j¨|
2.13
1.83
1.75
2.13 2.07 0.70
-5.74
-7.55
`ÿ
A`ÿ
K…wl
wkí
‡mev
mKj LvZ
3.47
2.91
2.21
0.47
2.34
2.70
1.69
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
MÖvgxY f‚wgnxb
cwievi
MÖvgxY cÖvwšÍK
K…wl cwievi
MÖvgxY †QvU K…wl
cwievi
MÖvgxY eo K…wl
cwievi
MÖvgxY AK…wl
cwievi
kû‡i ¯^í-wkwÿZ
cwievi
kû‡i D”P-wkwÿZ
cwievi
4.00
2.00
0.00
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00
-8.00
-10.00
ivqnvb: evsjv‡`‡k wewfbœ `„k¨K‡íi Aax‡b A_©bxwZ-we¯Í…Z I Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve
35
wPÎ 4-G ißvwb AwfNv‡Zi mvgwóK A_©‣bwZK cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| G ai‡bi BwZevPK
ißvwb Pvwn`v AwfNv‡Zi d‡j cÖK…Z wRwWwc 8 kZvsk e„w× cv‡e| cÿvšÍ‡i mvgwMÖK Drcv`b I
Af¨šÍixY weµq h_vµ‡g 8.3 I 7.8 kZvsk e„w× cv‡e| GQvov mvgwMÖK ißvwb e„w× cv‡e 13
kZvsk| cÖK…Z wewbgq nv‡ii DcPq NU‡e Ges wRwWwc AemviK, ga¨eZ©x DcKiY cwie¨q I
cÖv_wgK d¨v±i cwie¨q e„w× cv‡e|
wPÎ 4 : cÖavb mvgwóK A_©‰bwZK PjKmg~‡ni Dci ißvwb AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
Drm : evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
mviwY 5 †_‡K ‡`Lv hv‡”Q †h, Drcv`b I ißvwb cwigv‡Yi Dci m‡e©v”P abvZœK cÖfve
co‡e wkí Lv‡Z| Zvic‡i co‡e †mev Lv‡Z| e¯¿ I †cvkvK LvZ †`‡ki me©e„nr kÖgNb ißvwb
LvZ nIqvq G Lv‡Z G ai‡bi cÖfve hyw³m½Z|
mviwY 5
Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ †f‡`) Dci ißvwb AwfNvZ RwbZ cªfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
LvZ Drcv`b ißvwb Avg`vwb
K…wl 4.3 1.5 20.5
wkí 9.7 14.1 13.7
‡mev 8.7 2.1 16.4
mKj LvZ 8.3 13.1 14.5
Drm: evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
mviwY 6-G wefvwRZ LvZ ch©v‡qi cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| m‡e©v”P abvZœK cÖfve cwijwÿZ
n‡e e¯¿ I †cvkvK Lv‡Z Ges wØZxq m‡e©v”P cÖfve cwijwÿZ n‡e nvév Drcv`b Lv‡Z| K…wli
AšÍf©y³ DcLvZmg~‡ni g‡a¨ m‡e©v”P abvZœK cÖfve cwijwÿZ n‡e Õcï m¤ú` I gvsmRvZ
cY¨Õ Lv‡Z| ißvwb Lv‡Zi mwnZ e„nr AvšÍms‡hvM cÖfv‡ei Kvi‡Y †mev Lv‡Zi AvIZvfz³
DcLvZmg~‡ni g‡a me‡P‡q †ewk abvZœK cÖfve co‡e Ab¨vb¨ †mev Ges cwienY I †hvMv‡hvM
Lv‡Z|
8.01
8.31
13.14
7.85
6.19
5.83
3.76
6.16
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
cÖK…Z wRwWwc
‡gvU Drcv`b
(cwigvY)
ißbx cwigvb
‡`kR weµq
(cwigvY)
wRwWwc
AemviK
wewbgq nvi
(cÖK…Z)
ga¨eZx©
Drcv`‡bi e¨q
cÖv_wgK
Drcv`‡bi e¨q
evsjv‡`k Dbœqb mgx¶v
36
mviwY 6
Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ ‡f‡`) Dci ißvwb AwfNvZ RwbZ cªfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
LvZ Drcv`b ißvwb Avg`vwb
km¨ I dmj 3.9 2.6 20.0
Mevw` cï I gvsmRvZ `ªe¨vw` 5.1 4.2 19.8
Lwb I D‡Ëvjb 5.0 -6.5 25.2
cÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨ 9.4 12.6 16.7
e¯¿ I †cvkvK 11.7 14.4 14.2
nvjKv g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis 7.2 10.6 15.7
fvix g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis 1.3 -4.4 12.2
Dc‡hvM I wbg©vY 6.3 - -
cwienb I †hvMv‡hvM 9.1 2.1 15.0
Ab¨vb¨ †mev 10.2 1.9 17.3
‡gvU 8.3 13.1 14.5
Drm: evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
wPÎ 5-G ißvwb AwfNv‡Zi Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| kÖgNb ißvwb Lv‡Zi kÖg
Pvwn`v e„w×i Kvi‡Y wZbwU e„nr Lv‡Z `ÿ I A`ÿ Dfq ai‡bi kÖwg‡Ki Kg©ms¯’vb e„w× cv‡e|
`ÿ kÖwg‡Ki †ÿ‡Î m‡e©v”P Kg©ms¯’vb n‡e K…wl Lv‡Z| cÿvšÍ‡i A`ÿ kÖwg‡Ki †ÿ‡Î me‡P‡q
†ewk Kg©ms¯’vb n‡e wkí Lv‡Z| kÖgNb ißvwb Lv‡Z e¯¿ I †cvkvK LvZ A`ÿ kÖwgK wb‡qvR‡bi
eo LvZ nIqvq D³ Lv‡Z G ai‡bi cªfve Aek¨¤¢vex|
wPÎ 5: Kg©ms ’v‡bi Dci ißvwb AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
Drm : evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
20.39
19.69
16.32
16.63
18.94
19.66
15.39
16.57
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
`ÿ
A`ÿ
K…wl
wkí
‡mev
mKj LvZ
ivqnvb: evsjv‡`‡k wewfbœ `„k¨K‡íi Aax‡b A_©bxwZ-we¯Í…Z I Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve
37
wPÎ 6 †_‡K ‡`Lv hvq †h, mKj cÖwZwbwaZ¡kxj cvwievwiK †Mvôxi cÖK…Z Avq e„w× cv‡e|
Z‡e A‡cÿvK…Z `wi`ª cwievi¸‡jvi †ÿ‡Î †ewk cÖfve cwijwÿZ n‡e| MÖvgv‡j Avq me‡P‡q
†ewk e„w× cv‡e f~wgnxb cwiev‡ii Ges kniv‡j e„w× cv‡e ¯^í-wkwÿZ cwievi cÖavb wewkó
cwiev‡ii Avq| G †_‡K ‡evSv hvq †h, km¨ wfwËK K…wl‡Z abvZ¥K Drcv`bkxjZv AwfNvZ
evsjv‡`‡ki A‡cÿvK…Z `wi ª cwievi¸‡jvi Rb¨ me©vwaK mydj wb‡q Avb‡e|
wPÎ 6: cwievi mg~‡ni cÖK…Z Av‡qi Dci ißvwb AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
Drm: evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
3.3| `„k¨Kí 3: cwievimg~‡ni ‡ÿ‡Î mvgvwRK myiÿvi eivÏ wظY Kiv
GB „k¨K‡í cwievimg~‡ni Rb¨ mvgvwRK myiÿvq we`¨gvb eivÏ wظY Kivi welqwU
we‡ePbvq †bqv n‡q‡Q| GB †cÖÿvc‡U wmwRB g‡W‡j GK¸”Q ch©ewmZ AbywgwZ Av‡ivc Kiv
n‡q‡Q, †hLv‡b ‡gvU f~wg ÷K, Ki nvi, ‡gvU Bb‡fbUix, miKvwi mÂq I PjwZ wnmve fvimvg¨
n‡jv evwn¨K Avi mvKzj¨ wewb‡qvM e¨q I mvKzj¨ cÖK…Z miKvwi e¨q n‡jv Af¨šÍixY| g~jab
LvZwfwËK we¯Í…Z| kÖ‡gi †hvMvb w¯’i gRywi nv‡i bgbxq| b~¨bZg wewbgq nvi n‡jv g‡W‡ji
AwfwnZ g~j¨|
wPÎ 7-G mvgvwRK myiÿvi AwfNv‡Zi mvgwóK A_©‣bwZK cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| mvgvwRK
myiÿvq Giƒc eivÏ e„wׇZ mvgwóK A_©‣bwZK cÖfve e¨vcK n‡e bv, †Kbbv cÖK…Z wRwWwc,
mvgwMÖK Drcv`b, ißvwb I Af¨šÍixY weµq mvgvb¨ e„w× cv‡e| AwaKš‘ wRwWwc AemviK
(GDP deflator), cªK…Z wewbgq nvi, ga¨eZ©x DcKiY cwie¨q I cÖv_wgK d¨v±i cwie¨‡qi
Dci wKwÂr nZvkve¨ÄK (depressing) cÖfve co‡e|
MÖvgxY f‚wgnxb
MÖvgxY cÖvwšÍK
K…wl cwievi
MÖvgxY †QvU K…wl
cwievi
MÖvgxY eo K…wl
cwievi
MÖvgxY AK…wl
cwievi
kû‡i ¯^í-wkwÿZ
cwievi
kû‡i D”P-wkwÿZ
cwievi
9.36
8.77
8.61
9.20
8.53
9.49
9.14
9.60
9.40
9.20
9.00
8.80
8.60
8.40
8.20
8.00
evsjv‡`k Dbœqb mgx¶v
38
wPÎ 7: cÖavb mvgwóK A_©‰bwZK PjKmg~‡ni Dci mvgvwRK myiÿv AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve
(% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
Drm: evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
A_©bxwZi cÖavb LvZmg~‡ni †ÿ‡Î Drcv`b I ißvwbi Dci cÖfve BwZevPK n‡jI Zv n‡e
mvgvb¨| mviwY 7 †_‡K †`Lv hvq, wkí Lv‡Z Drcv`b I ißvwbi cwigv‡Yi Dci m‡e©v”P abvZœK
cÖfve co‡e| †h‡nZz mvgvwRK myiÿv `wi ª Rb‡Mvôxi µq ÿgZv e„w× K‡i ‡m‡nZz K…wlRvZ
`ª‡e¨i Avg`vwb Pvwn`v e„w× cv‡e|
mviwY 7
Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ ‡f‡`) Dci mvgvwRK myiÿv AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve
(% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
LvZ Drcv`b ißvwb Avg`vwb
K…wl 1.0 0.6 1.4
wkí 1.1 0.7 -0.1
‡mev 0.0 1.0 1.1
mKj LvZ 0.5 0.7 0.2
Drm: evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
mviwY 8-G wefvwRZ LvZ ch©v‡qi cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| K…wli AvIZvfz³ DcLvZmg~‡ni
g‡a¨ Ôkm¨ I dmjÕ Ges Ôcïm¤ú` I gvsmRvZ `ªe¨Õ DcLv‡Zi e¨vcK we¯Ívi NU‡e Ges wkí
Lv‡Zi DcLvZmg~‡ni g‡a¨ cÖwµqvRvZ Lv‡`¨i †ÿ‡Î Drcv`‡bi Dci m‡e©v”P abvZœK cÖfve
cwijwÿZ n‡e| Avi Zv n‡e mvgvwRK myiÿv eve` eivÏ e„w×i Kvi‡Y `wi ª Rb‡Mvôxi Avq
e„w× cvIqvq Lv`¨km¨ I cÖwµqvRvZ Lv‡`¨i evowZ Pvwn`v m„wó nIqvq|
cÖK…Z wRwWwc
‡gvU Drcv`b
(cwigvb)
ißbx cwigvb
‡`kR weµq
(cwigvb)
wRwWwc
AemviK
wewbgq nvi
(cÖK…Z)
ga¨eZx©
Drcv`‡bi e¨q
cÖv_wgK
Drcv`‡bi e¨q
0.6
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
0.8
0.4
0.42
0.50
0.69
0.49
-0.26
-0.26
-0.13
-0.26
ivqnvb: evsjv‡`‡k wewfbœ `„k¨K‡íi Aax‡b A_©bxwZ-we¯Í…Z I Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve
39
mviwY 8
Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ ‡f‡`) Dci mvgvwRK myiÿv AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve
(% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
LvZ Drcv`b ißvwb Avg`vwb
km¨ I dmj 1.4 0.7 1.5
Mevw` cï I gvsmRvZ ªe¨vw` 1.4 0.6 1.7
Lwb I D‡Ëvjb -0.3 0.0 -0.6
cÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨ 2.4 1.4 2.1
e¯¿ I †cvkvK 1.1 0.7 1.4
nvjKv g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis 1.0 0.7 0.6
fvix g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis -0.9 -0.2 -1.5
Dc‡hvM I wbg©vY -3.9 - -
cwienb I †hvMv‡hvM 1.4 1.0 1.2
Ab¨vb¨ †mev 1.5 1.0 1.1
‡gvU 0.5 0.7 0.2
Drm: evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
mvgvwRK myiÿv AwfNv‡Zi d‡j wKQz BwZevPK ¯^ígvÎvi Kg©ms¯’vb RwbZ cÖfve m„wó n‡e
(wPÎ 8)| A_©bxwZi wZbwU cÖavb Lv‡ZB `ÿ I A`ÿ kÖwg‡Ki Kg©ms¯’vb e„w× cv‡e| `ÿ
kÖwg‡Ki †ÿ‡Î Kg©ms¯’vb me‡P‡q †ewk e„w× cv‡e †mev Lv‡Z Ges A`ÿ kÖwgK‡`i †ÿ‡Î e„w×
cv‡e K…wl Lv‡Z|
wPÎ 8: Kg©ms ’v‡bi Dci mvgvwRK myiÿv AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
Drm : evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
`ÿ
A`ÿ
0.69
0.56
0.81
0.79
1.32
0.55
0.69
0.76
K…wl
wkí
‡mev
mKj LvZ
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
evsjv‡`k Dbœqb mgx¶v
40
wPÎ 9 †_‡K ‡`Lv hvq, mKj cÖwZwbwaZ¡kxj cwiev‡ii cÖK…Z Avq evo‡e| Z‡e MÖvg I
kniv‡ji abx cwiev‡ii ‡P‡q `wi`ª Rb‡Mvôxi Avq †ewk e„w× cv‡e| Gi g~j KviY n‡jv
mvgvwRK myiÿv Kg©m~wP g~jZ `wi`ª cwievi¸‡jv‡K D‡Ïk¨ K‡iB cÖYqb Kiv n‡q‡Q| MÖvg I
kniv‡j h_vµ‡g MÖvgxY f~wgnxb cwievi I ¯^í-wkwÿZ cwievi cÖavb wewkó cwievi¸‡jvB
†ewk jvfevb n‡e|
wPÎ 9 : cwievimg~‡ni cÖK…Z Av‡qi Dci mvgvwRK myiÿv AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
Drm: evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
3.4| „k¨Kí 4: cÖvK…wZK `y‡hv©M AwfNv‡Zi `iæY A_©bxwZi g~jab ÷‡K 5 kZvsk n«vm
`„k¨Kí 4 †_‡K †`Lv hv‡”Q, cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ (f~wgK¤ú, eb¨v, N~wY©So ev Ab¨
‡Kv‡bv cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM NwUZ) Gi Kvi‡Y A_©bxwZi g~jab ÷K 5 kZvsk n«vm cvq| GB
`„k¨K‡íi AvIZvq wmwRB g‡W‡j GK¸”Q ch©ewmZ AbywgwZ Av‡ivc Kiv n‡q‡Q, ‡hLv‡b mvKzj¨
f~wg ÷K, Ki nvi, KvwiMwi cwieZ©b, mvKzj¨ cÖK…Z msiÿY ZvwjKv, miKvwi mÂq Ges PjwZ
wnmve fvimvg¨ evwn¨K,Avi mvKzj¨ wewb‡qvM e¨q Ges mvKzj¨ cÖK…Z miKvwi e¨q Af¨šÍixY e‡j
MY¨ Kiv nq| g~jab LvZ wfwËK we¯Í…Z| kÖ‡gi †hvMvb w¯’i gRywi nv‡i bgbxq| b~¨bZg wewbgq
nvi g‡W‡ji AwfwnZ g~j¨|
wPÎ 10-G y‡h©vM AwfNvZRwbZ mvgwóK A_©‣bwZK cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| G ai‡bi
cÖfv‡ei d‡j cÖK…Z wRwWwc 2.28 kZvsk n«vm cv‡e| mvgwMÖK Drcv`b I Af¨šÍixY weµ‡qi
†ÿ‡ÎI GKB ai‡bi †bwZevPK cÖfve cwijwÿZ n‡e| cÖK…Z wewbgq nv‡ii †ÿ‡Î AbyK~j
Ae¯’v weivR Ki‡e Ges wRwWwc AemviK (GDP deflator), ga¨eZ©x DcKiY cwie¨q I
cÖv_wgK d¨v±i cwie¨q e„w× cv‡e| Gi d‡j ißvwb 2.63 kZvsk n«vm cv‡e|
4.32
3.25
2.10
2.31
1.15
2.14
1.70
MÖvgxY f‚wgnxb
MÖvgxY cÖvwšÍK
K…wl cwievi
MÖvgxY †QvU K…wl
cwievi
MÖvgxY eo K…wl
cwievi
MÖvgxY AK…wl
cwievi
kû‡i ¯^í-wkwÿZ
cwievi
kû‡i D”P-wkwÿZ
cwievi
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
ivqnvb: evsjv‡`‡k wewfbœ `„k¨K‡íi Aax‡b A_©bxwZ-we¯Í…Z I Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve
41
wPÎ 10 : cÖavb cÖavb mvgwóK A_©‰bwZK Pj‡Ki Dci cÖvK…wZK y‡h©vM AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve
(% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
Drm : evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
mviwY 9-G A_©bxwZi cÖavb LvZ †f‡` Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi cwigv‡Yi Dci cÖfve
†`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| m‡e©v”P †bwZevPK cÖfve co‡e K…wl Lv‡Z, †hLv‡b Drcv`b 2.7 kZvsk I
ißvwb 5.2 kZvsk n«vm cv‡e| Gi d‡j K…wl Lv‡Z Avg`vwb e„w× cv‡e 3.8 kZvsk| wkí I
†mev Dfq Lv‡Zi Drcv`b I ißvwbi Dci FYvZœK cÖfve co‡jI me‡P‡q †ewk cÖfve co‡e
wkí Lv‡Z|
mviwY 9
Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ ‡f‡`) Dci cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve
(% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
LvZ Drcv`b ißvwb Avg`vwb
K…wl -2.7 -5.2 3.8
wkí -2.5 -2.6 -0.1
‡mev -2.1 -2.3 0.3
mKj LvZ -2.3 -2.6 0.3
Drm: evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
mviwY 10-G wefvwRZ LvZ ch©v‡qi cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| †`Lv †M‡Q, mKj Lv‡Z
Drcv`b I ißvwb Kg‡e Z‡e m‡e©v”P FYvZœK cÖfve cwijwÿZ n‡e fvix g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis Lv‡Zi
Drcv`‡bi Dci| Gici m‡e©v”P †bwZevPK cÖfve co‡e Lbb I D‡Ëvjb Lv‡Zi Drcv`‡bi
Dci| wkí I †mev LvZfz³ DcLvZmg~‡ni Zzjbvq K…wl Lv‡Zi AvIZvfz³ mKj DcLv‡Zi
Avg`vwb AwaK gvÎvq e„w× cv‡e| Avi Zv n‡e g~jZ cwievi¸‡jvi †g․wjK Lv`¨ Pvwn`v c~i‡Yi
Kvi‡Y|
2.46
2.40
1.58
2.46
-2.28
-2.34
-2.63
2.31
cÖK…Z wRwWwc
‡gvU Drcv`b
(cwigvb)
ißbx cwigvb
‡`kR weµq
(cwigvb)
wRwWwc
AemviK
wewbgq nvi
(cÖK…Z)
ga¨eZx©
Drcv`‡bi e¨q
cÖv_wgK
Drcv`‡bi e¨q
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
evsjv‡`k Dbœqb mgx¶v
42
mviwY 10
Drcv`b, ißvwb I Avg`vwbi (e„nr LvZ ‡f‡`) Dci cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve
(% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
LvZ Drcv`b ißvwb Avg`vwb
km¨ I dmj -2.6 -5.2 3.8
Mevw` cï I gvsmRvZ ªe¨vw` -1.8 -4.5 4.1
Lwb I D‡Ëvjb -3.2 -5.4 4.2
cÖwµqvRvZ Lv`¨ -1.8 -2.3 0.8
e¯¿ I †cvkvK -2.5 -2.6 0.3
nvjKv g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis -2.7 -3.1 0.4
fvix g¨vbyd¨vKPvwis -4.4 -4.3 -0.6
Dc‡hvM I wbg©vY -2.3 - -
cwienb I †hvMv‡hvM -2.2 -2.3 -0.3
Ab¨vb¨ †mev -1.8 -2.4 0.6
‡gvU -2.3 -2.6 0.3
Drm: evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
wPÎ 11-G cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNv‡Zi Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q| g~jab ÷K
K‡g hvIqvi Kvi‡Y kÖ‡gi Pvwn`v (`ÿ I A`ÿ Dfq ai‡bi kÖwgK) mvgvb¨ e„w× cv‡e| Avi Zv
n‡e g~jZ kÖg I g~ja‡bi g‡a¨Kvi ¯^ígvÎvi substitution ‡_‡K RvZ cÖfv‡ei Kvi‡Y|
K…wlLv‡Z Kg©ms¯’vb D‡jøL‡hvM¨ nv‡i e„w× †c‡jI wkí I †mev Lv‡Z Kg©ms¯’vb e„w× cv‡e AwZ
mvgvb¨| G †_‡K †evSv hv‡”Q †h, G ai‡bi cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ evsjv‡`‡ki Kg©ms¯’v‡b
msNwUZ KvVv‡gvMZ cwieZ©b‡K cv‡ë †`‡e| A_P KvVv‡gvMZ cwieZ©‡b kÖwgKiv K…wl LvZ
‡Q‡o wkí I †mev Lv‡Z wbhy³ n‡e e‡j cÖZ¨vkv Kiv nq|
wPÎ 11 : Kg©ms ’v‡bi Dci cÖvK…wZK y‡h©vM AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve (% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
Drm : evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
me ai‡bi cwiev‡ii cÖK…Z Avq n«vm cv‡e (wPÎ 12)| MÖvgv‡j g~jab ÷‡K G ai‡bi
cwiev‡ii Ae`vb me©v‡cÿv †ewk nIqvq MÖvgxY AK…wlwfwËK cwievi¸‡jvi cÖK…Z Avq
3.32
3.22
0.67
0.34
0.40
0.62
0.05
0.60
`ÿ
A`ÿ
K…wl
wkí
‡mev
mKj LvZ
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
ivqnvb: evsjv‡`‡k wewfbœ `„k¨K‡íi Aax‡b A_©bxwZ-we¯Í…Z I Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve
43
e¨vcKfv‡e K‡g hv‡e | GKB Kvi‡Y kniv‡j D”P wkwÿZ cwievi cÖavb wewkó cwievi¸‡jvi
cÖK…Z Avq me‡P‡q †ewk K‡g hv‡e| Z‡e `wi`ª cwiev‡ii Rb‡Mvôxi DciI e¨vcK †bwZevPK
cÖfve co‡e|
wPÎ 12: cwievimg~‡ni cÖK…Z Av‡qi Dci cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ RwbZ cÖfve
(% g~j †_‡K cwieZ©b)
Drm : evsjv‡`‡ki wmwRB g‡W‡ji wmgy‡jkb|
4| Dcmsnvi
G cÖe‡Ü PviwU `„k¨K‡íi AvIZZvq wewfbœ bxwZ I cÖvK„wZK `y‡hv©M RwbZ AwfNv‡Zi
my`~icÖmvix A_©‣bwZK I Kg©ms¯’vbMZ cÖfve we‡køl‡Y MYbv‡hvM¨ mvgwMÖK fvimvg¨ (CGE)
g‡Wj e¨envi Kiv n‡q‡Q| `„k¨Kí¸‡jvi AšÍf©y³ n‡jv km¨ Drcv`bkxjZv e„w×, kÖg wbweo
ißvwb Pvwn`v e„w×, cwievimg~‡ni mvgvwRK myiÿvq eivÏ e„w× I cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ| GB
cÖe‡Ü MYbv‡hvM¨ mvgwMÖK fvimvg¨ g‡Wj I mvgvwRK wnmve †g․j 2012 Gi cvkvcvwk PviwU
wmgy‡jkb †_‡K cÖvß djvdj wek`fv‡e Av‡jvPbv Kiv n‡q‡Q| wmgy‡jkb †_‡K †`Lv †M‡Q,
k‡m¨i Drcv`bkxjZv e„w× I kÖg wbweo LvZmg~‡ni ißvwb Pvwn`v e„w×i d‡j `wi ª cwievimg~n
abx cwievi¸‡jvi Zzjbvq †ewk jvfevb nIqvi cvkvcvwk cÖK…Z wRwWwc e„w×, ißvwb e„w×,
Kg©ms¯’vb I cwievimg~‡ni cÖK…Z Avq e„w× A‡_© A_©bxwZ‡Z e¨vcK BwZevPK cÖfve co‡e|
hv‡nvK cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©vM AwfNvZ Kg©ms¯’v‡bi KvVv‡gvMZ iƒc cv‡ë †`qvi SzuwK •Zwimn cÖK…Z
wRwWwc, ißvwb I cwiev‡ii cÖK„Z Av‡qi Dci nZvkve¨vÄK (depressing) cÖfve †dj‡Z
cv‡i| cwi‡k‡l mvgvwRK myiÿv Lv‡Z eivÏ e„w×i `iæY mvgwóK A_©‣bwZK I LvZwfwËK cÖfve
mxwgZ n‡jI cÖK…Z Avq e„w×i Kvi‡Y MÖvg I kni Dfq GjvKvi `wi ª cwievi¸‡jv e¨vcKfv‡e
jvfevb n‡e|
MÖš’cwÄ
Raihan, S. (2014): “Updating the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Bangladesh, India,
Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka for the Year 2012,” paper prepared for UNESCAP
Subregional Office for South and South-West Asia (SRO-SSWA).
MÖvgxY f‚wgnxb
cwievi
MÖvgxY cÖvwšÍK
K…wl cwievi
MÖvgxY †QvU K…wl
cwievi
MÖvgxY eo K…wl
cwievi
MÖvgxY AK…wl
cwievi
kû‡i ¯^í-wkwÿZ
cwievi
kû‡i D”P-wkwÿZ
cwievi
-1.42
-1.41
-1.20
0.94
-1.46
-1.07
-1.33
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
-1.00
-1.20
-1.40
-1.60