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evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv
L 35 evwlK msLv 1424
evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi wbqvgKmg~n:
GKwU UvBg wmwiR weklY
mwjg ivqnvb*
gv: Iqvwn` di`m Beb**
1| fwgKv
^vaxbZv cieZx mgq evsjv`k A_bwZK I mvgvwRK Dbqbi ek KqKwU avc
AwZg KiQ| 1971 mvji gywhy `ki cvKwZK m`i evcK qwZ nq Ges
cKZ wRwWwci ( ) AwZ wb cew wbq ^vaxb `k wnme evsjv`k hvv i
Ki| Avq I cewi AwZ wb wbq hvv MZ mvo Pvi `kK wewfb Av_-
mvgvwRK m~PK `k AbK DbwZ jvf KiQ| Gme ARbi ^xKwZ mwZ evsjv`k
wb Avqi `ki ZvwjKv _K ei nq wb gag Avqi `ki ZvwjKvq Afy nqQ|
Ze miKvi NvwlZ 2021 mvji ga gag Avqi `k nZ nj RvZxq Avqi cew
AviI eMevb Kivi weK bB|
MZ KqK `kK ai RvZxq Avqi geagvb cew Abvb `ki mv_
evsjv`ki gvbyli Rxebhvvi gvbi eeavb eoB PjQ (Khan 1995)| gvbe m`i
wb gvb, yej AeKvVvgv, I we`kx wewbqvMi weiZv, LvZwbfi evRvi e_Zv
(market failure), Zzjbvg~jKfve wb e`wkK evwYR I ybxwZ BZvw` Gic eeavb
Kgvbv A_bwZK Dbqbi cieZx c_ cavb evav nq AvQ| Ggb
ev eZvq Kx Kx MwZgq Dcv`vbi (dynamic factors) Dci wfw Ki eZgvb evsjv`ki
A_bwZK cew AwRZ nQ Ges fwelZ Kx Kx Dcv`vb DP I UKmB cewi wfw nq
`uvove mwU Rvbv LyeB iZc~Y|
evsjv`k gvbe m`i wb gvbK wkvi wb wewbgq (low returns to education)
viv evLv Kiv hZ cvi| Barrow and Lee (2000) hyw w`qQb h, wkvi gvb wbwZ
KiZ cvij evsjv`k AviI DP cew ARb mg nZv| ^v Ges Abvb mvgvwRK
g~jabmg~n gvbe m`i Dcv`vb njI wkvKB gvbe m`i gvg e`wj (proxy)
wnme fvev nq (Barrow 2001)| ^vaxbZvi m~PbvjM nZ wbKU AZxZ ch wkvi YMZ
gvb ARbi Pvi Zzjbvq wkvi nvi evovbvi cwZB ewk iZvivc Kiv nqQ| GgbwK
D wkvi nvii mdjZvi MI aygv cv_wgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvii (net enrollment
rate) chvR; gvawgK Ges DP wkvi nvi `k GLbv AbK wcwQq AvQ
* AavcK, A_bxwZ wefvM, XvKv wekwe`vjq|
**MelYv mnhvMx, (weAvBwWGm)|
evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv
30
(Rahman and Yusuf 2010)| DP wkvi wbU fwZi nvi evsjv`k gag Avqi `kmg~n
Zv eUB, `wY Gwkqvi `kjvi Mo nvi _KI AbK wcwQq AvQ| myZivs mvgbi
w`bjvZ evsjv`ki Pjgvb cewi PvKv KZ`~i mPj _vKe Ges cewi MwZ evovbv hve
wKbv Zv AbKUvB wbfi Kie wkvi nvi I YMZ gvb evovbvi Dci|
` gvbe m`i cvkvcvwk cZ e`wkK wewbqvM (GdwWAvB) GKwU `ki
A_bwZK Dbqbi iZc~Y wbqvgK| ivRbwZK Aw iZv, eemv cwiPvjbvi DP LiP I
A_bwZK KgKvi wb wewbgq (low return) `k wb GdwWAvB Avmvi `vqx|
GZ`mI, mg cevwlK cwiKbvq evsjv`k miKvi 2020 mvj bvMv` 9.6 wewjqb gvwKb
Wjvi GdwWAvB AvKlYi j wi KiQ| DP GdwWAvB Avmvi nvi Ges DbZ
gvbem`i wg_wqv njB Kej GKwU `ki A_bwZK Dbqb MwZ AvmZ cvi ej wKQz
wKQz A_bxwZwe` gb Kib (Alfaro and Chandra 2006)| myZivs A` kg kw I wb
GdwWAvBK `ki A_bwZK AMMwZi c_ AvMvgx w`bi evav wnme MY Kiv hZ cvi|
LvZIqvix cybMVb cwqv Ges D`vibwZK evwYRbxwZK beB `kKi ii w`Ki
A_bwZK Dbqbi wnme wPwZ Kiv hvq| m mgq nvi Kgvbv I A evav
`~ixKiY wQj Lye iZc~Y wmvjvi ga | Ze GLbv `wY Gkxq AvwjK
mnhvMxZv msv (mvK) Ges `wY c~e Gwkqvi `kjvi msv (Avwmqvb)-Gi
`kjvi mv_ I AvwjK evwYR ewi gvag A_bwZK DbwZi myhvM iqQ|
Avwki `kKi ii w`K `ki Kwl LvZ miKvwi nvm Kivmn AbK D`vibxwZ
MnxZ nq, hvi ga DjLhvM njv KlK`i dmj Drcv`bi Rb mvi cvw mnRjfKiY,
Lv` wecYb eevq cwieZb, AvaywbK hcvwZZ fZzwK Zzj `qv BZvw` (Mujeri and Sen
2003)| fwelZ KwlLvZ Avkvbyic mdjZv ARbK AvaywbK chyweve bxwZ , KwlK
jvfRbK I AwaK Drcv`bkxj KiZ cYv`bv c`vb Ges wb Avqi gvbyli cywi K_v gv_vq
iL Drcv`b cwqvK AwaKZi ` I Kiv Riwi| GQvov cvKwZK `yhvMi dj
A_ev `Zvi Afvei KviY Drcvw`Z eo GKwU Ask web nq hvIqv iva Kiv
mvgbi w`bjvZ Lv` wbivcvi ck eo Aivq|
DcivjwLZ HwZnMZ LvZ (traditional sector) QvovI mvebvkxj LvZ hgb, Z_ I
hvMvhvM chyw, Kwl , Pvgov wk I Jla wki Dbqb miKvwi I emiKvwi
LvZi KvhKi `ki gvU `kR Drcv`b I Gi cewK BwZevPKfve cfvweZ
Kie (Raihan et. al. 2017)| GQvovI wewbqvM I evwYRi we`gvb evav ~ixKiY
Ges kvmb eevi KvVvgvMZ cwieZbi gvag m`i ` eenvi wbwZ Kiv iZc~Y
(Ahmed 2014)| eZgvb ce evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi MwZ-cKwZ Ges AvMvgx w`b
GKwU UKmB I DP cewi avivq DbxZ nIqvi Rb iZc~Y cfveKjv Kivi Pv
Kiv nqQ|
ivqnvb I Beb: evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi wbqvgKmg~n: GKwU UvBg wmwiR weklY
31
2| evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi aviv
RvZxq Avqi gv 1.76 kZvsk evwlK cew wbq mii `kK evsjv`k hvv i Ki
(wP 1)| AwZ wb cew wbq hvv ii cieZx mgq G`ki A_bxwZi AwbwnZ kw
ej GB cew ew cq 2011-2015 mgqKvj Mo 6.32 kZvsk nqQ| wP 1
_K weMZ 44 eQi evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi kwkvjx BwZevPK aviv j Kiv hvq|
Mujeri and Sen (2003) GB BwZevPK cwieZbi cQb RbmsLv , wk gZz nvi
Kg Avmv, Avevw` Rwgi cwigvY Kgvi ciI Lv` qsm~YZv ARb I Dbqb cwqvq
gwnjv`i AfzwKiYK ^vaxbZvi cieZx `yB `kKi bxie RvMi wnme wPwZ
KiQb| Gi AeewnZ ci 1990 Gi `kKi ii w`Ki D`vi AvR vwZK evwYR bxwZ
Ges GKB `kKi kl w`Ki DP Kwl cew D `kKi gvU `kR Drcv`bi cewK
mvo Pvi wbq hvq (Khan 2001)| Avwk I beBqi `kK RvZxq Avqi QvU
wfwi Dci Ggb mvlRbK DbwZ cieZx `kK cew ARbi c_ BwZevPK
cv_wgK kZ wnme KvR KiQ| gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvi ew, wk gZzi nvi nvm,
AeKvVvgv ,BwZevPK cvwZvwbK BZvw` 2000 cieZx mgq fvjv cew
ARb mnvqK fwgKv cvjb KiQ|
wP 1: evsjv`k cKZ wRwWwc cewi EaMwZ
Drm: World Development Indicators (WDI-2015) Gi Dcvi wfwZ jLKqi wnmve|
3| MelYv cwZ
beac`x A_bxwZZ RvZxq I Gi cew evLvi c_g cfvekvjx Z njv mjv
cew Z (Solow 1956)| GB cei cvqvwMK Z Ges AvjvPbv g~jZ mjv
AvjvK Mo DVQ| cewi MwZkxj DcKi/mg~n (dynamic factors) evLv Kivi
j mjv mmvwiZ ic cqvM Kiv nqQ|
1.76
4.02
4.68
5.58
6.32
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1972-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2015
cK
Z wR
wWwc
i c
ew
i n
vi (
%)
eQi
evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv
32
mjv / g~jZ `xNgqvw` A_bwZK cew wbq AvjvKcvZ Ki _vK| GB Z
gZ GKwU `ki `xNgqvw` A_bwZK cew ev Avq cew wZbwU PvwjKvkw viv wbavwiZ
nq; () cwigvY, () Kg jvKi , Ges () Drcv`b cwZi
`Zv| mjv gWji mvaviY mgxKiY Gic
Y = F (K, L, A) ()
= F (
,
, A) ()
GLvb,
Y = RvZxq Avq (gross domestic product)
K = cwigvY (capital)
L = Kg jvKi (labor)
A = Drcv`b cwZi `Zv (state of technology)
Gic mgxKiYK Cobb-Douglas Drcv`b w`q evLv Kiv hvq| eZgvb ce
eeZ Cobb- Douglas wbic
log = 0 + 1 log + 2 log + (3)
GLvb,
RGDPt = cKZ wRwWwc (real gross domestic product)1
EMPLOYHCt = Kg jvKi (gvbe m` mgqKZ) (human
capital adjusted number of employed persons)2
CAAPt= cwigvY (total gross fixed capital formation)3
et= gWji Aewk (Residual term)4
1 World Development Indicators (2015)
2 Kg jvKi Ges cuywR eZxZ gWj gvbe m`KI mwbek Kiv nqQ| Kg
jvKi Dcvi mv_ gvbe m`i DcvK Y Ki gvbem` mg^qKZ Kg jvKi
PjK Zwi Kiv nqQ| Kg jvKi (number of employed persons)
World Economy Database 9.1 ( human capital index) Peen World Table (PWT 8.1) 3 cwigvY (total gross fixed capital formation) World Economy
Database 9.1 4gwjK Drcv`b AcKi GB Aewk AskwUi KviYB mjv gWjK Exogenous gWj ejv nq Ges GB
AskwUB GB gWji A-evLvKZ Ask, hvi Ab bvg gvU Drcv`b `Zv ev wUGdwc|
ivqnvb I Beb: evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi wbqvgKmg~n: GKwU UvBg wmwiR weklY
33
Z gZ, Kg jvKi Kgmsvb evovi mv_ cKZ wRwWwci abvZK
mK (1abvZK) Ges cwigvY evovi mv_ cKZ wRwWwci abvZK mK
(2abvZK) _vKv cZvwkZ|
wKy _K cvwK cvwi nvi mgqi mv_ KgZ _vK (diminishing marginal
rate of return of capital), GB wVK ai wbj K`xfwZi gvag gv_vwcQz Avq
ew `xNw`b eRvq ivLv me bq| G aibi GKwU A_bxwZK bZzb GKwU
mvgvevq (steady - state) wbq hZ cvi wVKB, wKy mB mvgvevq c uQvbvi ci Avi
bZzb Ki cew ARb Kiv hvq bv| H Aevq ( cvwK cvwi nvi wb:kl nIqvi ci)
`ki A_bwZK cew eRvq ivLvi GKgv nvwZqvi njv Drcv`b cwqvi `Zv evovbv, hv
gwjK mjv GKwU A-evLvKZ Ask (et) Ges GwU /gWji evBi _K
wbavwiZ nq| ZvB G aibi gWjK ewn:cfvweZ (exogenous) gWj ejv nq|
G aibi gWji Ab GKwU ewk njv, kZhy GK-K`vwfgyLZv (conditional
convergence)| GB ewkwUI cvwK cvwi nvi KgZ _vKv viv evLv Kiv hvq|
Mwie `kjvi hnZz cwigvY Kg _vK mnZz abx `kjvi Zzjbvq Mwie
`kjvi cvwK cvwi nvi ewk _vK, ZvB `kjv mgcKwZi (homogeneous)
nj mjv gWji Aaxb Mwie `kjv GK mgq abx `kjvi mgvb DbwZ jvf Kie Ges
Zv`i mgK nq hve| mjv gWji gZv be ac`x Z GwU nIqv me, G aibi
Z Drcv`b cwqvi `Zvi (total factor productivity ev wUGdwc) welqwU A-evLvKZ
Ask (et) wnme _K hvq| myZivs-
TFP =
[a (
) + b (
)] (4)
hLvb, a Ges b nj h_vg Drcv`b ( capital) I ( labor) Avjv`v
Avjv`v Ask| myZivs mjv gWj eenvi Ki I Ae`vbK fvjvfve evLv Kiv
MjI RvZxq Avq wUGdwci fwgKv evLv Kiv hvq bv| mjv gWji GB mxgveZvi
cieZx aviv cew Zi De NU hv`i ewn:cfvegy (endogenous) cewi Z ejv
nq|
G avivi cfvekvjx Zjvi ga Romer (1994), Lucas (1988), Ges Rebelo
(1991) DvweZ Zjv AbZg| Gme Z gZ gvbem` (hgb, wewbqvM, ^v
wewbqvM) AeKvVvgvi Aev, cvwZvwbK mgZv BZvw` wUGdwc Z_v A_bwZK cewi
iZc~Y wbqvgK|
GKwU `ki A_bwZK, ivRbwZK I mvgvwRK cwZvbjvi mgZvi mv_ m `ki
wUGdwci abvZK mK iqQ (Acmaglo et.al. 2004)| A_bwZK cwZvbjv ` nj
GKRb kwgK AwaK KvR Kivi cvb, GKRb D`vv AwaK nvi wewbqvM Kivi
cYv`bv cvb, hv kl wePvi `ki A_bxwZK BwZevPKfve cfvweZ Ki| AvgjvZi
evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv
34
YMZ gvb, ybxwZi gvv, wewbqvM cwiek, MYZvwK , miKvii wwZkxjZv I
AvBbi kvmb njv gvUv `vM GKwU `ki cvwZvwbK `Zvi gvcKvwV, hv m `ki
A_bwZK AMMwZK eMevb KiZ fwgKv ivL|
A_vr, Endogenous cewi Zi aviYv gZ, wUGdwcK wbvfve eYbv Kiv hvq
TFP = F (A, M, ) (5)
hLvb, TFP = gvU DcKi mgZv ev wUGdwc
A = Drcv`b cwqvi `Zv
M = cvwZvwbK wbqvgKmg~n
= Abvb wbqvgKmg~n
GB ce mjv gWji gwjK Endogenous cew Zi AvjvK
mmvwiZ Kiv nqQ| GZ Drcv`b gwjK wbqvgKmg~n wUGdwci
Dcv`vbmg~n `kxq Avqi cewi Dci cfve wbYq Kivi Pv Kiv
nqQ| mmvwiZ wbic:
log = 0 + 1 log + 2 log + 3 + (6)
hLvb,
Zit = wbw` mgq i Zg wUGdwci
i = ivwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ, Avg`v-wRwWwc AbycvZ, evwYR-wRwWwc AbycvZ, miKvii
Uvdvi eq, cZ we`kx wewbqvM (GdwWAvB), FYi my`i nvi, g~jxwZ, wkgZz nvi,
gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvi, AeKvVvgv Ges cvwZvwbK Aev|
Vt= gWji Aewk (Residual)|
wUGdwci mnM 3 ivwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ, Avg`v-wRwWwc AbycvZ, evwYR-wRwWwc
AbycvZ, miKvii Uvdvi eq-wRwWwc AbycvZ, cZ we`kx wewbqvM (GdwWAvB),
gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvi, AeKvVvgv I cvwZvwbK Aev Rb abvZK I FYi my`i
nvi, g~jxwZ I wk gZz nvii Rb FYvZK wP hy ne Abygvb Kiv hvq| cew
Zjv evLv Kivi Rb evsjv`ki A_bxwZi wewfb m~PKi gvU 44 eQii (1972-
2015) Dcv eenvi Kiv nqQ| Drmjv njv World Economy Database
Version 9.1 (Alphametrics Co. Ltd. ), Peen World Table (PWT 8.1)
Ges wekevsK Gi Word Development Indicators (2015)|
ivqnvb I Beb: evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi wbqvgKmg~n: GKwU UvBg wmwiR weklY
35
4| BKvbvgwUK weklY
4.1| PjKjvi wbjZvi (Stationarity) cixv
GKwU UvBg wmwiR hw` GKK g~j (Unit root) cvIqv hvq Zvnj ZvK Non-
Stationary ejv nq| evwlK UvBg wmwiR mvaviYZ Non-Stationary nq _vK| GB
ce Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Awfvi (Dickey and Fuller 1979) gvag
GKK g~j (Unit root) Kiv nqQ| ADF Awfvi djvdj _K `Lv hvq h,
cew gWj eeZ meKwU PjKB ic (level form)
GKK g~j AvQ Ges ic (first difference form) Kvbv
, mejv - I(1)| ADF Awfvi djvdj mviwY 1-G
Zzj aiv njv|
mviwY 1 : ADF Awfvi djvd cf`KiY eZxZ (level form) Ges GKevi cf`KZ (first difference) ic
PjK ADF mnM BwUMkb AWvi ADF mnM BwUMkb AWvi
A-cf`KZ ic GKevi cf`KZ ic
cKZ wRwWwci jM . I(1) -.*** I(0)
Kg
(gvbe m` mg^qKZ) jM
-. I(1) -.*** I(0)
cuywRi cwigvYi jM . I(1) -5.577*** I(0)
gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvi -. I(1) -2.966** I(0)
wk gZzi nvi -. I(1) -4.401*** I(0)
evwYR-wRwWwc AbycvZ -. I(1) -7.003*** I(0)
Avg`vwb -wRwWwc AbycvZ -. I(1) -8.249*** I(0)
ivwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ -. I(1) -6.388*** I(0)
GdwWAvB-wRwWwc AbycvZ . I(1) -4.865*** I(0)
miKvwi Uvdvi eq -wRwWwc
AbycvZ
-. I(1) -7.511*** I(0)
FYi my`i nvi -. I() -4.418*** I(0) g~jxwZi m~PK () . I(1) -3.399* I(0)
AeKvVvgv -. I(1) -1.635* I(0)
cvwZvwbK Aev -. I(1) -4.082*** I(0)
m~: jLKqi cvjb|
UxKv: *, ** I *** h_vg 10%, 5% Ges 1% gvvi A_c~Y I(1) = GKwU GKK g~j, I(0) = k~b GKK g~j ev wbj|
evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv
36
4.2| PjKjvi mve Kv-BwUMkb cixv
Johansen (1991) Gi gZ, `ywU Non-stationary UvBg wmwiR ciii ga Kwg
mK (spurious relation) Zwi KiZ cvi, hw` Zviv Kv-BwUMUW bv nq| GB ce
Johansen Co-integration Awfvi gvag PjKmg~ni ga Co-integration U Kiv
nqQ| GB Ui djvdj Abyhvqx gwjK mjv gWj Ges mmvwiZ mjv gWji ^vaxb
PjKi mv_ Aaxb PjKi (cKZ wRwWwc) Kgc GKwU Co-integrating mK cvIqv
MQ (mviwY 2 I 3)|
mviwY 2: gwjK Drcv`b AcK/gWji Rb Johansen Co-integration Awfvi djvdj
Awfvi aib ayeK Ges
ceYZv ewZZ
(no intercept,
no trend)
ayeK mn, ceYZv
ewZZ
(intercept, no
trend)
ayeK mn, ceYZv
ewZZ
(intercept, no
trend)
ayeK I ceYZv mn
(intercept,
trend)
Co-integrating
Trace 3 2 1 2
Max-Eigen 3 2 1 2
Drm: jLKqi cvjb|
mviwY 2 _K `Lv hvQ h, gwjK Drcv`b AcK (production function) Z_v
gwjK mjv gWji Aaxb PjKi mv_ ^vaxb PjKqi GK ev GKvwaK (Awfvi wewfb
Abygvb f`) Co-integration mK we`gvb| A_vr D gWj _K Kvbv `xNgqvw`
mK cvIqv Mj Zv KvhKi mK (causal relationship) ej MY ne|
mviwY 3: mmvwiZ gWji Rb Johansen Co-integration Awfvi djvdj
Awfvi aib ayeK Ges ceYZv
ewZZ
(no
intercept,
no trend)
ayeK mn,
ceYZv
ewZZ
(intercept,
no trend)
ayeK mn,
ceYZv
ewZZ
(intercept,
no trend)
ayeK I
ceYZv mn
(intercept,
trend)
Co integrating
gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvi Trace Max-Eigen
4
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
wk gZzi nvi Trace Max-Eigen
4
4
4
4
2
2
3
2
evwYR-wRwWwc AbycvZ Trace Max-Eigen
2
2
3
3
2
2
3
1
Avg`vwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ Trace Max-Eigen
2
2
3
3
2
2
3
1
(Pjgvb mviwY 3)
ivqnvb I Beb: evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi wbqvgKmg~n: GKwU UvBg wmwiR weklY
37
Awfvi aib ayeK Ges ceYZv
ewZZ
(no
intercept,
no trend)
ayeK mn,
ceYZv
ewZZ
(intercept,
no trend)
ayeK mn,
ceYZv
ewZZ
(intercept,
no trend)
ayeK I
ceYZv mn
(intercept,
trend)
Co integrating
ivwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ Trace Max-Eigen
3
2
3
2
1
1
2
1
GdwWAvB-wRwWwc AbycvZ Trace Max-Eigen
2
2
3
3
2
2
3
2
miKvwi Uvdvi eq -wRwWwc
AbycvZ Trace
Max-Eigen
2
2
3
3
2
2
3
1
FYi my`i nvi Trace Max-Eigen
3
1
2
2
1
1
2
1
g~jxwZi m~PK () Trace Max-Eigen
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
AeKvVvgv Trace Max-Eigen
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
cvwZvwbK Aev Trace Max-Eigen
4
1
3
2
1
1
2
1
Drm: jLKqi cvjb|
mviwY 3 _K `Lv hvq h, GB Co-integration mmvwiZ gWji I chvR
Kbbv mmvwiZ gWji wUGdwci cwZwU Dcv`vbK Avjv`v-Avjv`vfve gwjK mjv Z
Afz Ki h djvdj cvIqv hvq ZvZ cwZ B AZ GKwU Co-integration mK
| GB ce Dcv Dfq w`Ki KvhKi mK (bi-directional causality) _vKjI
Zv Dcv Kiv nqQ, KviY GwU cei AvjvPbvi Rb cqvRbxq bq|
5| djvdj Ges cvqvwMK w`K
hnZz Non-Stationary UvBg wmwiRjv cii Co-integrated, mnZz Ordinary
Least Square (OLS) wbfi (regression) cwZi gvag cewi Zjv Kiv
hve| gwjK mjv gWj Ges mmvwiZ mjv gWji djvdj Ges Zv`i cvqvwMK
w`Kjv wb AvjvPbv Kiv nqQ|
5.1| gwjK mjv gWj Gi djvdj
( ) djvdj
Abyhvqx `xNgqv` Mo gvbem` mgqKZ Kg Kgmsvb hw`
01 kZvsk ew cvq Zvnj `ki cKZ wRwWwc 0.22 kZvsk ew cvq| Ges `xNgqv` Mo
cwigvY 01 kZvsk ew cj cKZ wRwWwc 0.19 kZvsk ew cvq|
evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv
38
mviwY 4 : OLS wbfiY djvdj (gwjK mjv Z)
Aaxb PjK (cKZ wRwWwci jM) wbfiY mnM t-AbycvZ P-gvb
Kg wbqvwRZ jvKi msLvi (gvbe m` mg^qKZ) jM 0.223*** 5.36 0.000
gvU cuywRi cwigvYi jM 0.190*** 3.88 0.000
m~: jLKqi cvjb|
UxKv: *** = 1 kZvsk gvvq |
Drcv`b AcKi (production function) PjKjv hnZz cii Co-integrated,
G`i ga AekB GKwU fzj mskvab mK we`gvb _vKe, hv g~jZ ^gqvw`
fvimvgnxbZv _K `xNgqvw` fvimvg evLv Ki| cZvwkZfveB gwjK mjv
gWj Gic Error Correction mnM 0.0262 cvIqv MQ, hv Z_MZfve Zvrchc~Y
(statistically significant), Ze FYvZK Ges GKK gvbi _K QvU| A_ vr `xNgqvw`
fvimvg we`y _K hKvbv wePzwZ cwZ eQi 2.62% nvi mskvwaZ nq fvimvg we`yi
w`K wdi Avm|
5.2| mmvwiZ gWj
Drcv`b mKi gwjK DcKi QvovI GKwU `ki `xNgqvw` A_bwZK cew m
`ki wUGdwci Av vi Dci wbfi Ki| mmvwiZ mjv gWji ( ) gvag
wUGdwci wewfb wbqvgK Drcv`b wK aibi fwgKv ivL Zv Zzj aiv nqQ| GLvb
mmvwiZ mjv gWj gwjK mjv gWji DcKimg~ni mv_ wUGdwci cwZwU mve
wbqvgKK Avjv`v-Avjv`vfve GK-GK Ki mwbek Ki `Lv nqQ Zviv wKfve gWjK
cfvweZ Ki| mviwY 5-G mmvwiZ mjv gWji djvdj `Lvbv nqQ Ges cei
cieZx fvM (5.3) djvdjjv wevwiZ AvjvPbv Kiv nqQ|
mviwY : OLS wbfiY djvdj (mmvwiZ mjv Z)
PjK wbfiY mnM t-AbycvZ p-gvb
gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvi 0.011*** 6.13 0.000
wk gZzi nvi -0.010*** -15.74 0.000
evwYR-wRwWwc AbycvZ 0.013*** 12.39 0.000
Avg`vwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ 0.021*** 10.11 0.000
ivwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ 0.027*** 10.88 0.000
GdwWAvB-wRwWwc AbycvZ 0.172*** 11.60 0.000
miKvwi Uvdvi eq-wRwWwc AbycvZ 0.046*** 12.27 0.000
FYi my`i nvi -0.028*** -5.23 0.000
g~jxwZi m~PK () -0.001* -1.74 0.094
AeKvVvgv 0.114*** 20.20 0.000
cvwZvwbK Aev 0.042*** 3.55 0.001
m~: jLKqi cvjb|
UxKv: *** = 1 kZvsk gvvq , * = 1 kZvsk gvvq Zvrchc~Y|
ivqnvb I Beb: evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi wbqvgKmg~n: GKwU UvBg wmwiR weklY
39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1972 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015gva
wgK
wk
vi wbU f
wZ
(e
nro
llme
nt)
(%
)
eQi
5.3| mmvwiZ gWji evLv
5.3.1| gvawgK wkvi DP nvi cewi Rb mnvqK
wkvi nvi Ges YMZ gvbK ew Ges RvZxq Avqi iZc~Y wbqvgK wnme MY Kiv
nq _vK| GKRb wkwZ kwgK Zzjbvg~jK Kg wkwZ kwgK _K ewk Drcv`bkxj Ges
GB ewaZ kl wePvi RvZxq Avq ewK Ki| msLvi wePvi gvawgK
chvqi wkvi wbU fwZi nvi evsjv`k DjLhvM AMMwZ ARb KiQ Ges G nvi 1972
mvji 16 kZvsk _K ew cq 2015 mvj 52 kZvsk cuQvq (wP-2) wKy G nvi AviI cqvRb| GB ce gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvii mv_ cKZ wRwWwci mK
Pv iv nqQ Ges BwZevPK mK cvIqv MQ| gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZ
(enrollment) GK kZvsk cqU ew cj Mo cKZ wRwWwc 0.011 kZvsk ew cvq|
`ki gvawgK wkvi GB nvi ewK ^ I `xNgqvw` D`vM bqv evbxq| G
wkK-Qv AbycvZ evovbv, wkv AeKvVvgv DbZ Kiv I cvwZvwbK chvq mgmv Kiv
Mj wkvi nvi I YMZ gvb ew Kiv me ne Ges RvZxq Avqi cewZ Zvi BwZevPK
cfve cvIqv hve|
wP 2: evsjv`k gvawgK wkvi wbU fwZi nvi
Drm: World Economy Database (9.1) Gi Dcv|
5.3.2| wb wkgZz nvi cew evovq
MZ Pvi `kK wk gZzi nvi Z Kwgq Avbvi evsjv`k mgZvi cwiPq
w`qQ| GB nvi cwZ nvRvi 1972 mvji 148 _K Kg 2015 mvj 30.7 G bg
evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv
40
GmQ| MZ 20-30 eQi hver evsjv`k wek v msvi (WHO) Expanded Programme
on Immunization (EPI) Kgm~wP ev evqb wnme GB wb wk gZz nvi
ARb KiZ ciQ| Sarkar et. al. (2015) Gi Z_ gZ, enr wUKv`vb Kgm~wPi
Kvi 1987-2000 mvji ga AvbygvwbK 2 wgwjqb wki gZz cwZiva Kiv me
nqQ| DPT/PENTA3 wUKv`vb Kgm~wPi evw 1988 mvji 16 kZvsk _K ew Ki
2013 mvj 92 kZvsk DbxZ Kiv nqQ, hv ewkK Mo _K AbK ewk Ges DbZ weki
Gic nvii mv_ ZzjbvhvM| GgbwK wk gZz nvi Kgvbv Ges wUKv`vbi evw evovbvi
evsjv`k Zvi cwZekx `k fviZ I cvwK vbi _KI Zzjbvg~jKfve fvjv KiQ|
2010 mvj I cvwKvb wUKv`vb Kgmw~Pi evw wQj h_vg 50.9 I 74 kZvsk Ges
GKB mgq evsjv`k GB nvi wQj 80 kZvsk| D wZbwU `ki ga 1972 mvj
wkgZzi nvi mevP wQj evsjv`k wKy 2015 mvj Gm m wP e`j wMq evsjv`ki
wkgZzi nvi Aci `ywU `k _K AbK Kg GmQ (wP 3)| mmvwiZ mjv gWji
cvjb Abyhvqx wk gZzi nvi hw` 1 cqU Kg cKZ RvZxq Avq Mo 0.01 kZvsk ew
cvq|
wP 3 : fviZ I cvwK vbi Zzjbvq evsjv`ki wk gZzi nvi
Drm: World Economy Database (9.1) Gi Dcv|
5.3.3| AwaK e`wkK evwYR RvZxq AvqK BwZevPKfve cfvweZ Ki
ZvwK wePvi GKwU D`vibwZK evwYRbxwZ cwZhvMxZv ew, `Zv ew, Dvebx gZv
I bZzb chywi gvag Drcv`b cwqvK ` Ki Zvj| AvRvwZK evwYR
dj GKwU cYi Zzjbvg~jK g~j cwiewZZ nq Ges m`i ` eb wbwZ Kiv me nq|
AvRvwZK evwYRi dj bZzb bZzb evRvi DbvwPZ nq I Kgmsvb ew cvq|
wk g
Zzi
nvi
(cwZ
nvR
vi)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1972 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
evsjv`k cvwKvb fviZ
ivqnvb I Beb: evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi wbqvgKmg~n: GKwU UvBg wmwiR weklY
41
^vaxbZv cieZxKvj evsjv`k AvRvwZK evwYR ek KqKwU cybMVb cwqv KiQ|
hvi dj `ki evwYR-wRwWwc AbycvZ, Avg`vwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ Ges ivwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ
1972 mvji h_vg 10.6, 6.5 I 4.1 kZvsk _K ew cq 2015 mvj h_vg 41.7,
23.3 I 18.4 kZvsk DbxZ nqQ (wP 4)| GB ce `ki A_bwZK cewi Dci
AvRvwZK evwYRi wK aibi cfve AvQ Zv mmvwiZ mjv gWj viv evLv Kiv nqQ|
wbfiY djvdj Abyhvqx evwYR-wRwWwc AbycvZ, Avg`vwb-wRwWwc Ges ivwb-wRwWwc
AbycvZi mnM abvZK Ges Z_MZfve Zvrchc~Y (statistically significant)| evwYR-
wRwWwc AbycvZ, Avg`vwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ Ges ivwb-wRwWwc AbycvZ GK kZvsk cqU ew
cj cKZ wRwWwc Mo h_vg 0.013, 0.021 I 0.027 kZvsk cqU ew cvq| `wY-
Gwkqv Ges `wY-c~e Gwkqvi `kjvi mv_ AvwjK I wcvwK chvq AwaKZi KvhKi
A_bwZK mK Rvi`vii j evsjv`ki bxwZwbaviK`i AviI KvhKi c`c bqv
cqvRb| I A evav ~ixKiY, cwienb I we`yr LvZ wewbqvM I mnhvMxZv ew
BZvw` c`c evsjv`ki e`wkK evwYRi cwigvY evovZ Ges kl wePvi DP cew
ARb mnvqK fwgKv ivLZ cvi| GKB mv_ ewkK Pvwn`vi mv_ Zvj wgwjq ivwb
egyLxKi, bZzb ivwb evRvi Abymvb BZvw` c`c KvhKifve ev evqb Kiv cqvRb| AvwjK evwYRi `Z eagvb A_bxwZ hgb `wY c~e Gwkqv I c~e Gwkqvi `kjvi
mv_ evwYR mK Dbqbi DciI `ki fwelr A_bwZK Dbqb wbfi Kie (Raihan
2017)|
wP 4: evsjv`ki evwYR-wRwWwci AbycvZ
Drm: World Development Indicators (2015) Dcvi wfwZ jLKqi wnmve|
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
evwYR
wR
wWwc
AbycvZ
imp_gdp exp_gdp trade_gdp
evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv
42
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Bangladesh
India
China
Thailand
Indonesia
Vietnam
wbU Gd wW AvB cevn (wRwWwci kZvsk)
`k
5.3.4| DP e`wkK wewbqvM Ges cew
cZ e`wkK wewbqvM (GdwWAvB) A_bwZK cewi AviKwU iZc~Y wbqvgK,
wekl Ki evsjv`ki gZv ^vbZ `ki Rb| GdwWAvB GKwU ^vbZ `kK KvwiMwi
I chywMZ `Zv ARb mvnvh Ki, hv wUGdwcK BwZevPKfve cfvweZ Ki| 2015
mvj evsjv`k 2.2 wewjqb GdwWAvB GmQ hv wRwWwci AbycvZ gv 1.73
kZvsk, hw`I mg cevwlK cwiKbvq miKvi 2020 mvj bvMv` GdwWAvB Avmvi cwigvY
9.6 wewjqb gvwK b Wjvi DbxZ Kivi j wbavi KiQ| GdwWAvB AvKlY Gwkqvi
Abvb `ki Zzjbvq evsjv`k AbK wcwQq iqQ| hgb fviZ, Pxb, _vBjv,
B`vbwkqv I wfqZbvgi Zzjbvq evsjv`ki GdwWAvB-wRwWwc AbycvZ mewb| cew
gWji cvjb Abyhvqx GdwWAvB-wRwWwc Ab ycvZ hw` GK kZvsk cqU ew cvq Zvnj
`ki cKZ wRwWwc Mo 0.17 kZvsk cqU ew cve| AwaK Y GdwWAvB AvKlY
KiZ nj ivRbwZK , AeKvVvgv Dbqb I eemv-evwYRi LiP Kgvbvi weK
bB| miKvi NvwlZ 100wU wekl A_bwZK Aji mdj ev evqb me nj GdwWAvB
AvKlY weivU |
wP 5: Gwkqvi KqKwU `ki GdwWAvB-wRwWwc AbycvZ|
Drm : World Development Indicators (2015) Dcvi wfwZ jLKqi wnmve|
5.3.5| Uvdvi eve` miKvwi eq wRwWwc evovq
mvgvwRK wbivcv ev Uvdvi eqi gvag miKvi `ki Zzjbvg~jK `wi
RbMvxi Avq I fvM ewZ fwgKv iL _vK| gWji djvdj _K `Lv hvq, miKvwi
Uvdvi eq evoj `ki cKZ wRwWwc ew cvq| Uvdvi eq GK kZvsk cqU ew cj
`ki cKZ wRwWwc Mo 0.05 kZvsk cqU ew cvq| Uvdvi eq Kej GKwU `ki
cKZ wRwWwcB evovq bv, AwaKy GKwU mylg mgvR ~ | Mwie eve cew
ARbi j miKviK G aibi Uvdvi eqi Drm I evw AviI mmvwiZ Kiv
cqvRb|
wfqZbvg
wfqZbvg
B`vbwkqv
_vBjv
Pxb
fviZ
evsjv`k
ivqnvb I Beb: evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi wbqvgKmg~n: GKwU UvBg wmwiR weklY
43
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
miK
vwi U
vd
vi e
q-wR
wWwc
AbycvZ
eQi
wP 6 : wRwWwci AbycvZ wnme miKvwi Uvdvi eq ewi wP
Drm: World Development Indicators (2015) Gi Dcv|
5.3.6| wb my`i nvi cew eve Ges g~jxwZ wZKi
FYi my`i nviK `Lv nq wewbqvMKvix evsK _K h UvKv avi bb Zvi evRvi g~j
wnme| myZivs mB g~j ev my`i nvi hZ Kge GKRb wewbqvMKvix wewbqvM ZZ ewk
DrmvwnZ neb Ges AwaK wewbqvM wRwWwcK mivmwi BwZevPKfve cfvweZ Ki| wP 7
_K `Lv hvQ, MZ 15 eQi evsjv`k GB my`i nvi 10-14 kZvski ga IVvbvgv
KiQ| gWji djvdj Abyhvqx FYi my`i nvi GK kZvsk cqU Kgj Mo cKZ wRwWwc
0.03 kZvsk ew cvq| myZivs emiKvwi wewbqvM ew I wRwWwc cew ZivwbZ KiZ FYi
my`i nvi Kgvbv GKwU fvjv bxwZ nZ cvi|
wP 7 : evsjv`k MZ 15 eQi my`i nvii IVvbvgv
Drm: World Development Indicators (2015) Gi Dcv|
2000
2008
2004
2006
2010
2012
2014
2016
eQi
jvw
s m
y`i n
vi (
%)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2002
evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv
44
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
gve
vBj
dvb
ee
nvi
Kvi
x (cwZ
100 R
b)
eQi
`eg~j ew evsjv`ki cKZ wRwWwcK evavM Ki| eg~j ew cj kwgKi cKZ
gRywi Kg hvq Ges GKB mv_ ewi fvMi Pvwn`v Kg, hv kl wePvi RvZxq AvqK
Lvivcfve cfvweZ Ki| wbfiY djvdj Abyhvqx, wmwcAvB (consumer price index) GK
cqU ew cj Mo 0.001 kZvsk nvi cKZ wRwWwc Kg hvq|
5.3.7| AeKvVvgv Ges cew
AeKvVvgv Dbqb, wekl Ki hvMvhvM AeKvVvgvi Dbqb GKwU `ki UKmB I DP
cew c~ekZ| DbZ AeKvVvgv hvZvqvZ LiP mgq jvNei cvkvcvwk
Drcv`bi DcKiY mg~ni `Zv ewi gvag wUGdwc I cew ew Ki _vK| evsjv`ki
gZv gag Avqi `k DbxZ nZ BQzK `k G aibi AeKvVvgv Dbqb AviI ewk
iZc~Y| AeKvVvgvMZ cwimsLvb mnRjf bv nIqvq G ce gvevBj dvb I jv
dvbi gvU eenviKvixi msLvK AeKvVvgv Dbqbi weK m~PK wnme bqv nqQ, hv
_K `Lv hvq 2015 mvj ch `ki 81 fvM gvbyl gvevBj dvb eenvi Ki| gWji
cvjb Abyhvqx gvU Uwjdvb eenviKvix 1 kZvsk ew cj `ki cKZ wRwWwc
0.11 kZvsk ew cvq|
wP 8 : gvevBj dvb eenvi ewi wP 2000-2015
Drm: World Development Indicators (2015) Gi Dcv|
5.3.8| cvwZvwbK `Zv ev YMZ gvb iZc~Y
cvwZvwbK `Zv cwigvc KiZ GB ce GKwU m~PK Zwi Kiv nqQ hLvb
International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) (www.prsgroup.com) 6wU iZc~Y
m~PK eenvi Kiv nqQ| Gjv njv AvgjvZi YMZ gvb, `ybxwZ ivai Aev,
http://www.prsgroup.com/
ivqnvb I Beb: evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi wbqvgKmg~n: GKwU UvBg wmwiR weklY
45
wewbqvMi cwiek, MYZvwK , miKvii wwZkxjZv I AvBbi kvmbi Aev|
D ICRG m~PKmg~ni cwigvci j wfb wfb nIqvq mejv m~PKK mewb 0 _K
mevP 10 Gi j cybivq cwigvc Kiv nqQ| evsjv`k 1984 mvji
GB m~PK 2.15 5.62 G | gWji djvdj `LvQ cvwZvwbK
`Zv ew cj cew ew cvq| cvwZvwbK `Zvi m~PK 1 cqU ew cj `ki
cKZ wRwWwc 0.04 cq ew cvq| wUGdwci wi v
(statistically significant) 6| Dcmsnvi
GB ce MZ 44 eQi evsjv`ki A_bxwZi cewi MwZ cKwZ chvjvPbv Kiv Ges
wbqvgKjv wbaviY Kivi Pv Kiv nqQ| GB Pvi `kKi ewk `k cew ARbi
c_ AbK ~i AMmi nqQ| 1990 c~eeZx mgqi ek wKQz ARbi ga mvgvwRK I
A_bwZK wewfb m~PK mvlRbK DbwZ AMMY, dj 1990 cieZx `v AviI
`Z cew ARb me nqQ| wk gZzi nvi DjLhvMfve KgQ, evwYR D`vi nIqvi
`ib evwYR-wRwWwc AbycvZ eoQ, cv_wgK I gvawgK wkvi nvi DjLhvM nvi
eoQ, cvkvK wk AfZc~e DbwZ mvwaZ , Kwli cew ejvsk eoQ hv wecyj
RbMvxK Lv` qsm~Y KiQ, mevcix AeKvVvgv I cvwZvwbK Dbqb nqQ| `ki
RvZxq Avqi cewi gwjK Y QvovI Abme wbqvgK
BwZevPKfve , hv wUGdwcK BwZevPKfve cfvweZ KiQ| djic RvZxq
Avq I m`i AwZ wb wfwi Dci ` uvwoqI mii `kKi hywea `k cieZxZ AbK
cvKwZK ` yhvMmn bvbv cwZKjZv AwZg Ki mwZ GKwU wb gag Avqi `k DbxZ
nqQ| GB ce evsjv`ki Gme ARbi cQbi cfveKjv hgb AvjvPbv Kiv nqQ
Zgwb fwelZi mve Dbqbi wbqvgKjv LuyR ei Kivi Pv Kiv nqQ| GB cei
cv djvdj gZ A_bwZK Dbqbi cieZx avc DbxZ I wbKU fwelZ gag Avqi `k
nZ nj A_bwZK bxwZ cYqb ~i`wkZv, cvwZvwbK `Zv ew, AeKvVvgvi evcK
Dbqb I wewbqMi (wk I ^v eq ew) gvag RbwgwZK myweavi mevP
eenvi wbwZ Kiv iZc~Y| Gme cwieZbi Rb evcK nvi emiKvwi wewbqvM
ew Ges GdwWAvB AvniY Riwi| A_bwZK I ivRbwZK cwZvbjvi `Zv ewI
mgfve iZc~Y|
evsjv`k Dbqb mgxv
46
Mcw
Alfaro, L. and A. Chanda (2006): How Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote
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Ahmed, S. (2014): Searching for Sources of Growth in Bangladesh, The First BEF
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Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. A. Robinson (2004): Institutions as a Fundamental
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Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1979): Distribution of the Estimation for
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ivqnvb I Beb: evsjv`ki A_bwZK cewi wbqvgKmg~n: GKwU UvBg wmwiR weklY
47
Raihan, S. et al. (2017): Bangladesh Sectoral Growth Diagnostic, DFIDs Economic
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