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‘Evolving demand for food crops research for sustainable intensification of agriculture’. Peter Craufurd With contributions from CIMMYT, ICRISAT, CIP, ICARDA, CIAT. Contents. What do we mean by Sustainable Intensification (SI)? Ethiopia’s context & trends in food crop production Yield gaps - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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‘Evolving demand for food crops research for sustainable
intensification of agriculture’Peter Craufurd
With contributions from CIMMYT, ICRISAT, CIP, ICARDA, CIAT
Contents
• What do we mean by Sustainable Intensification (SI)?
• Ethiopia’s context & trends in food crop production
• Yield gaps• Evolving demand: systems research for SI &
risk-reduction
Sustainable intensification
‘Sustainable intensification is about optimising productivity and a range of environmental and possible other outcomes’
‘Efficiency of inputs used relative to desired outputs; and desired outputs in relation to undesirable outputs’ Garnet & Godfray 2012
• CONTEXT specific• TIME & SPACE (landscapes not just field or communities )
‘Sustainable intensification needs a reduction in market transaction costs and improved productivity of commodity or labour that can be invested elsewhere.’ Lynam 2014
Profitability of current & improved crop technology is limited
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Cases
Net
retu
rns (
$ /
ha /
seas
on, 2
005
PPP) Harris and Orr, 2013Black bars – farmer practice
Red bars – improved practice
Median returns
Note: large yield increase on small area = not muchTake care in extrapolation; need for trade-off/bioeconomic models
Context of agriculture Ethiopia• Huge diversity/heterogeneity between & within farming
systems
• Largest livestock population in Africa (challenges & opportunities for crop & system intensification)
• High climate variability & vulnerability (risk & opportunity)
• Limited land for crop expansion• Private sector (especially SME) less
developed than in other countries• Dominance of public institutions, and
low private sector role in Agricultural Innovation Systems
Trends in aggregate food crop area
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000 CerealsOilseedsPulsesRoots and tubers
Area (ha)
Trends in aggregate food crop area
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000
Area (ha)OilseedsPulsesRoots and tubers
Opportunities for future expansion crop land are limited
Trends in aggregate food crop yield
Root & tuber yield not changed much : 70-80000 hg/ha
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
02000400060008000
1000012000140001600018000
Yield (hg/ha)
Cereals
Oilseeds
Pulses
Source: CSA (courtesy DTMA)
Production of maize in Ethiopia
In the last decade intensification, rather than extensification, major driver of production increase in cereals & pulses; roots & tubers area is increasing
Yield gaps are an opportunity
CropArea
(M ha)
Total prod’n (MMT)
Average yield (t/ha)
On-farm yield
(t/ha) On-station yield (t/ha)
Maize 2.01 6.16 3.01 6 to 8 9 to 12Wheat 1.63 3.43 2.11 2.5 to 5 3.5 to 5.5Sorghum 1.71 3.60 2.11 3.3 4.2
Source CSA 07/08
Poor access to: • improved cultivars & quality seed• Pesticides• Irrigation• Extension…
Evolving research agenda for SI
Accessible & functioning markets (value chains) are essential for SI• Where & for whom can SI work?• What can we do for those who cannot adopt SI?– Better targeting of ‘clients’; value-chains, farmer
typologies, decision-support, bio-economic models- Basket of interventions for SI, diversification & risk reduction that include crops, livestock & trees
Hand-held Greenseeker
• New cultivars (yield, biotic & abiotic tolerance, food & feed quality) major entry point
• Need greater integration & promotion of crop/system management with new cultivars; missed opportunity
• Invest in small-scale mechanisation; timing, frees up labour, gender-friendly, income generating options
Evolving research agenda for SI
• Invest in precision agriculture for smallholders; fertilizer use & efficiency
• NRM interventions can be complex & knowledge intensive; investigate stepwise introduction of components; how to scale up?
• Risks & opportunities of climate variability & other shocks; rapid release & seed production cultivars; seasonal weather forecasting, crop insurance linked to interventions
Evolving research agenda for SI
• Community, watershed, landscape approaches for land & water management (climate smart landscapes)
• Irrigation
Systems research for SI• Agro-ecological zones (potential)• Crop, livestock, farm and landscape
systems (scale)• Temporal changes (resilience)• Access to input/output markets;
information; credit (enabling)• Farm size, assets, objectives (livelihood
systems)Design of systems• Future trajectories of change?• Tools for trade-off analysis & understanding farmer
(& other stakeholder) decisions
Invest in capacity building (& logistics) to scale-up – an example from India
Number of 2009 2012 RatioFarmers 0.20m 4.39 mArea (ha) 0.20m 3.73m Farm facilitators 517 9,700 1:450Lead farmers 1867 45,000 1:100
BhoochetanaFarm facilitators paid $2.50/d x 180d = $436,500 in 2012
• Favorable enabling environment - subsidized seed & nutrients ; investment in logistics/storage of seed, fertiliser; KN State Gov’t invested >$2m in soil testing
• ICRISAT had 15 MSc and 2 PhD FTE in the field permanently, plus 1 FTE full-time for 10 years in KN Dept. Agric.
• Collaboration with Digital Green for farmer-to-farmer videos• Be or find a champion!
Thank you