Evolution of Warfare and Security in the Modern World

Lecture 1: Introduction and Basic Concepts

Dr. James Corum- Dean- Baltic Defence College

Dr. Eric Sibul, Asst. Prof. Baltic Defence College

Lecture outline

1. Course outline

2. Introduction and the basic concepts

3. Summary

Course outlineI. Learning outcomes: The course is designed for specialists in the field of cyber

defence/security. It’s purpose is to provide the general understanding of the nature of warfare and outline the role and scope of information warfare (IW – cyber warfare is a part of it) used by states in contemporary world.

In particular, the learning outcomes constitute:1. Knowing the evolution of warfare and its basic concepts 2. Comprehending connections between the warfare,

technology and state organisation3. Understanding the role of cyberspace in modern warfare

and knowing various views on utilising it for offensive and defensive purposes

Course outline

II. Topics to be discussed1. The evolution of traditional warfare from antiquity to

present day2. The evolution of untraditional/unconventional warfare3. Infromation warfare and different views on it

NB! This course is not so much about the history of war, but about the history of warfare,i.e. about the ways people have fought wars, thought about wars, and keep doing it in present time

Course outlineIII. Individual assignments• Two essays: each 1,500 words (exceeding the limit is not

recommended)• Essay no.1: Analyse the major changes in warfare from antiquity

to modern days. What are the most significant changes? What has remained unchanged? Deadline: 26.03.2012

• Essay no 2: Analyse the meaning of victory in conflict in the information age. What has changed? What has remained unchanged? How information society and information warfare influences achieving the victory? Deadline: 14.05.2012

• Submission: in electronic form to an email address:• james.corum@bdcol.ee

Course outlineIV. Marking of essays and completion of course

Marking of essays:• knowledge of literature and references to authoritative texts• independent thought• presentation of the most important aspects of the topic• timely submission (delaying submission will reduce the mark by

one grade a day – if the essay is, for example, submitted two days late and it is marked “E” on the basis of its contents, then it will receive a total mark “fail” because of the delay and it must be submitted again)

• References to Wikipedia are not welcome and their presence will be considered as lowering the quality of the essay

Written fail/pass examination: 90 minutes for answering several questions in written form

Introduction: the worldTo begin with...what kind of world do we live in?

• Tokyo 1995, 9/11 • February 2003 – three hackers disrupted the US logistics

planning for the US operations in the Persian Gulf, etc. • Internet is used by 1.7-2 billion people• 50% of world population lives in the cities• Globalisation is on the rise – over 550 million people move

across borders annually, over 6 million people fly daily• India+China = 35% and the US+EU = 60% of the world economy

(there are 192 United Nations’ member states!); of the 100 largest ‘economies’ in the world only 47 are states, the rest are multinational corporations

• There are 45,000 non-governmental organisations in the world and many of them have become very influential in international politics

• Every 2-3 years mankind produces more written/printed information than in previous 5,000 years...

Introduction:conflicts

• The world is rapidly becoming a ‘global village’ connected at various levels by new technologies, integrating economy and societies

• Does it mean that we solve our conflicts differently? Have we become more peaceful, do we fight differently?

• Are we witnessing changing conflicts in a changing world? Has information warfare gained a special role in these conflicts or has it become a way of fighting a conflict in its own right?

Introduction:conflicts

Source: Human Security Brief 2007, Vancouver: Simon Fraser University

Introduction:conflicts

Source: Human Security Brief 2007, Vancouver: Simon Fraser University

Introduction:terrorism

Source: Human Security Brief 2007, Vancouver: Simon Fraser University

Introduction:conflicts and terrorism

• Although the world has become more integrated than ever, the number of conflicts waged in the world has increased from 1946-2006

• Considerable number of states in the world have become unstable and suffer from internal conflicts – nature of conflicts has changed and they have migrated into states. States fight each other rarely nowadays

• Conflicts have become less violent. The deadliest conflicts have been wars between states

• The number of incidents of terrorism has generally not increased dramatically – with the exception of conflict areas

Introduction:changes in conflictsContinuing the previous thread of thought, we can say that...• ...indeed, states have become more peaceful with regard to

each other and they avoid, as a rule, (at least) open warfare• ...nations and nationalities still solve their internal problems

through violence• ...terrorism is used frequently in these internal conflicts• ...the general insight into conflict statistics tells us little about

the IW.

However, we know IW happens. We know something goes on in the cyberspace, but is it a systematic development, is it a natural evolution of warfare – evolution of means for solving conflicts (be it through the offensive or defensive actions)?

Introduction:why knowing the history of warfare is necessary

In order to get a definitive answer and also establish the purpose, different types and applications (and limits of application) of IW, we need to investigate the historical evolution of warfare in general.

We need to know: (1) Why and how people have used violence? (2) What could be achieved through the violence?(3) How have nations organised themselves and their

tools for fighting through times and how is it done in the information age?

These are the questions that will be investigated and answered during this course.

Introduction:basic termsWar is......continuation of politics by other means. War is an act of

violence that theoretically could have no limits. Traditonal war consists of strategic, operational and tactical levels

State is......an entity comprising territory, citizens and constitutional

order/legislationConstitutional order is......a set of principles reflected in laws and describing how

state is constituted, i.e. how it works, how it is governed and how much control it exerts over its population and various sectors of society and economy.

Politics/policy is......a process of decision-making/purposeful flow of action

Introduction:basic termsStrategy is......an idea or set of ideas for employing the instruments of

power in a synchronized and integrated fashion to achieve various objectives

Operational art is......an application of creative imagination by commanders

and staffs to design strategies, campaigns, and major operations and organize and employ military forces

Operation is...... a large-scale military action consisting of tactical

engagements in support of strategic goals Tactics is......an employment and ordered arrangement of forces in

relation to each other

Introduction:basic terms

Information warfare/operations (IW/IO) is...

...the integrated employment of (1) the core capabilities of electronic warfare, (2) computer network operations, (3) psychological operations, (4) military deception, and (5) operations security, in concert with specified supporting and related capabilities, to influence, disrupt, corrupt or usurp adversarial human and automated decision-making while protecting our own

Introduction:changes in warfare and in constitutional order

Innovations Princely state

1494-1572

Kingly state

1567-1651

Territorial state

1649-1789

State-nation

1776-1870

Nation-state

1861-1991

Constitutional -Consistent finance-Permanent government

-Absolutism

-Sectarianism

-Trade control-Aristocratic leadership

-Nationalism

-Imperialism

-Nationalism

-Ideology

Warfare -Use of mercenaries

-Mobile artillery

-Fortification

-More firearms

-Siege warfare

-Standing armies

-Professional armies

-Limited wars

-Mass conscription and mass armies

-Decisive battles

-Nuclear weapons

-Rapid computation

-International communica-tions

Source: Bobbitt, P. (2002) “The Shield of Achilles”, London: Penguin Books, pp.346-347

Introduction:changes in warfare and in constitutional order

• 1991...the end of a nation-state?

• ...arrival of a market state?

• ...what does it mean for warfare?– Enemy– Goals– Means– Conflicts– Strategy of countering the enemy

Introduction:Evolution of war--generations of wars

1. 1800: Napoleonic wars and the arrival of mass armies on the battlefield

2. 1870-1918: Wars of industrial societies characterised by mass armies and massive fire power

3. 1918-1945: Mechanised manoeuvre warfare4. 1945-1990: Insurgencies/guerilla wars. 1990: War has

ceased to be a predominantly physical battle supported by IW and has transformed into a strategic communication campaign where physical battle is a tool for sending messages and breaking the will of enemy’s government.

5. 2001: War has become an activity of networks, supranational groups in pursuit of their objectives. It is increasingly becoming unlimited.

Source: Hammes, T.X. “Fourth Generation Warfare Evolves, Fifth Emerges”, Military Review, May-June 2007

Summary

• We inhabit a globalising world characterised by developing information society where every individual has much more access to information, ability to process information and produce information

• This world of ours is characterised by the fact that there are more conflicts taking place than half a century ago

• States fight states rarely – majority of conflicts are intrastate conflicts characterised by a high incidence of terrorism

• Warfare and constitutional order of states have through the centuries evolved in the direction of maximum mobilisation of society and its resources for war. Since the Great French Revolution, war has become a truly national undertaking

Summary

• The evolution of information society seems to be transforming war into a communication campaign of violent and destructive messages

• Information society (i.e. growing access to technologies that could be used for destructive purposes as well as growing vulnerability of society) enables smaller groups to challenge states

• Does it all mean fading of nation-state and emerging of a new constitutional order (market state – P.Bobbitt) remains to be seen and will be discussed during the course

• Some Course texts;• Richard A. Preston , Sydney F. Wise and

Herman O. Werner, Men in Arms: a History of Warfare and its Interrelationships with Western Society (New York: Frederick Praeger, 1956).

• Emily O. Goldman, ed., Information and Revolutions in Military Affairs (London: Routledge, 2005).

• Lecture One – Introduction • Preston, Wise, & Werner. Men in Arms.: 1- 9 • Lecture Two – Classical Warfare in the Western

World • Preston, Wise, & Werner. Men in Arms.: 17 – 49• Lecture Three – Classical Warfare in Asia the

Eastern Way of War• Lecture Four – Feudal Warfare to the

Beginnings Modern Warfare • Lecture Five – Limited Warfare in the 18th

Century to Nations in Arms and Napoleon

• Lecture Six – The 19th Nineteenth Century Limited War and the rise of the Information Age

• Lecture Seven – Total War • Lecture Eight—World War II on the Eastern

Front and in the Baltic Area• Lecture Nine – Modern Irregular Warfare• Lecture Ten: The Cold War• Lecture Eleven– Military Thought in the late

20th Century and Beyond

• Lecture Twelve – The Russian and Chinese Approaches to information warfare

• Lecture Thirteen – The US Approach to Information Warfare

• Lecture Fourteen –Summary and Review of current Debates

• Lecture 15: Final Exam

Some themes for the course

• Overview of evolution of war

• Role of technology in war

• A look at military history in the Baltic Region

• Historical experience shaping current debates– views on future conflict

• Develop critical thinking– and expression – especially in papers

Final Goal

• Understand the basics on evolution of conflict

• Understand some basics as to role of technology in conflict

• Understand some of the current thinking and development of Information War

• Improve your ability to think critically • Improve your ability to express yourselves

in English