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8/11/2019 Evolution of Mobile Handsets
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Evolution of Mobile Handsets and
the Impact of Smartphones
February 2012
Yoko Miyashita
InfoCom Research, Inc.
Lecture Document
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Todays Lecture Outline
Mobile handset history outlook:
Handsets have changing dramaticall y especially in this decade.
What are the future phones l ike???
Industry structure is changing after the growing smartphone
populality Handset development trend is also changing with the smartphone
2
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Feature Phone vs. Smartphone
Smartphone? OR Feature phone?
3
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Mobile Handset Market Overview
4
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Global Mobile Subscriber Number & Penetration History
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
in million
Subscriber Number
Net increase
Penetration Rate
u
s
b
e
s
e
n
t
a
o
n
12/200512/200012/1995
Source: US Census Bureau, Informa and 4G Americas. As of September, 2011
12/2010
5.4 billion mobile phone subscribers and 77% of mobile penetration, globally
5
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2,624
859
121
328
569531 511 538
287
69.6% 64.4%
95.2% 95.3%
96.1%
129.3%
127.0%
53.1%
89.8%
0100200300400500
600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,600
1,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002,2002,3002,4002,5002,6002,7002,800
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
MILLION
Mobile Subscriber and Penetration Rate by Region
Source: Informa and US Cencer Bureau
As of December2010
AsiaPacific
China Japan NorthAmerica
SouthAmerica
WestEurope
EastEurope
Africa MiddleEast
Subsc
riber
Pe
netration
Subscriber
Penetration
6
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8/11/2019 Evolution of Mobile Handsets
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Handset Market Structure
High-end/Smartphone
Middle range
Low Endincluding ultra low end
One of the best selling phone in historyMarket Structure
Price range and its volume
Price$ 800
Price$ 20-50
Low end
Black-white display
86 gram
SMS
Color variation
Target: emergingmarket
NO InternetNO Camera
Nokia 1100
Price$ 300
8
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ZTE
5 5
RIM
3 5
Huawei
3 9
Apple
5 7
LG
6 9
Samsung
20 7
HTC
3 3
Motorola
3 0
Nokia
24 7
Others
22 9
Mobile Handset Share by Vendor
Source: Strategy Analytics
Vendor Shipment
(Million)MarketShare
Nokia 88.5 24.7%
Samsung 74.0 20.7%
LG 24.8 6.9%
Apple 20.3 5.7%ZTE 19.6 5.5%
Huawei 13.9 3.9%
RIM 12.5 3.5%
HTC 11.9 3.3%
Motorola 10.6 3.0%
Others 81.9 22.8%
Total 358.0 100.0%
Mobile Handset Shipment Based Vender Share 2011.2Q(April to June)
9
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Evolution of Mobile Handset
10
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Evolution of the Cell Phone
Miniaturize Functionalize, Thin/High Speedmail, camera, data internet cloud
Motorola
DynaTAC
Approx. 1kg
Nokia 1011
495g Motorola
StarTAC
88g
Sony Ericsson
P800smartphone
158g
RIM
BlackBerry Quark 6210
smartphone
136g
Apple
iPhone 3G
smartphone
140g
1983 1990 2000 2007
1st generation 2ndgeneration 3rd generation
11
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Characteristic of the 1st Generation
Period: From 1980s to 2000
Analog based mobile network
No data communication, only SMS
Heavy and bulky handset
Extremely expensive, starting from $1,000
Miniaturize is the most important fordevelopment
Targeted only for the business and forspecial segment
12
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Mobile Handset History: 1stGeneration
1983 1993 1996 1999
Handset Trend Transition
Source: GigaOM and Newgrounds.com 13
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Characteristic of the 2nd Generation
Period: From appx. 2000 to 2007
Mobile phone for the mass peopleRelatively slow data connection/ Internetusage by phone
Golden time for handset vendors:handset vendors were the most influential and powerful
Various kinds of handsets
Handset development environment isrelatively closed
14
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Mobile Handset History: nd Generation
HighEnd
LowEnd
Handset Design Trend Transition
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Nokia 3310:
133g Nokia 1100:86g
Nokia 6310:111g*withUltra Slimbattery
Nokia 3410:
114g
NEC L1:11.9mm *
Motorola V60:
109g
Motorola
V70:83g
MotorolaV600:115g*
*Camera
Touch display
Panasonic A100:
66g:
SamsungSPH-V9900:6.9mm *
Smaller Multimedia Design/ Thinner
VK Mobile:48g:
SamsungU100:5.9mm *
LGChocolate:
15.2 mm*
MotorolaRAZR v3:13.9mm*
LGPRADA phone:12mm*
SamsungP520 :8.9mm *Sharp
GX10:110g*
nd
Generation: Handset vendors have the strongest power
15
U i F t h
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Unique Feature phones
Xelibri
74 gram
139Euro
Xelibri
83
17923,800
Xelibri 8
Neck less Type
NO button(Voice Recognition)
179Euro
Xelibri by Simens, was one of the most unique series of handset
Commercial Image
Xelibri 6
Compact type
90 gram179 Euro
16
U i F t h
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LG F7100 Qiblah
Phone for Muslim Community
Unique Feature phones
Qiblah by LG Electronics, was one of the best selling feature phones by LG for Islamic peopl
Points the direction of MECCA
With the Compass function)
Make alerts 5 times a day to pray
Arabic language
SMS/MMS capability
LG
s best selling feature phone
* LG
s s strategy to carter for the
specific needs of the Muslim people
Weight
Display
Talking
time
Waiting
hour
Technology
Release dateJuly, 2004
89g
LCD65K Color
GSM900/1800/GPRS
210 mim
200 hour
17
Ch t i ti f th 3 d G ti
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Characteristic of the 3rd Generation
Period: appx. 2007 ~
Smartphone era
Higher speed network
More internet connectionMany new entrants to mobile handsetindustry, such as Google and Apple
Industry structure revolution
18
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Sony Ericsson
XPERIA X1
Nokia
N96
LG
KF-700
Almost all the high-end handset look alike after iPhone
Year 2007: iPhone released
Mobile Handset History: 3 rd Generation
Beginning of Smartphone Era with iPhone
19
Wh t i S t h ?
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Industry efinition of Smartphone
Open Operation System(OS)
Specification is disclosed to the third party
Broad application development environment
Mobile network capabilitye.g. Not Wi-Fi only handset
Apple: iOSGoogle; AndroidRIM: BlackBerryNokia: Symbian
Microsoft: Windows Phone(Windows Mobile)and Linux
What is Smartphone?
Smartphone?
20
Smartphone Market Projection
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Smartphone Market Projection
0
10 0
20 0
30 0
40 0
50 0
60 0
70 0
80 0
2
7
2
8
2
9
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
4
2
5
21 4
78 6
41 0
59 0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2
7
2
8
2
9
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
4
2
5
20152010
11 1
88 9
49 7
50 3
Global
Japan
Unit: Million
100
Data: Strategy Analytics, MCPC
Smartphone Not Smartphone
21
Smartphone Industry Structure
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Smartphone Industry Structure
Smartphone has its own ecosystem
Smartphone OS providers have strong power.
Vertical integration structure: Smartphone OS provider controls the service,application and even handsets.
Service
Network
Application
OS/Platform
Handset
SmartphoneMarket share
(Email, Search,Maps)
*Smartphone market share: Top line: 2011.2Q, bottom: 20102Q22
Smartphone OS based handset market share
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Smartphone OS based handset market share
2010.2Q to 2011.2Q 2011.2Q
Android and iPhone OS are becoming two most powerful players
Nokias Symbian losing much market share
SourceStrategy Analytics 23
Data Traffic Explosion caused by Smartphone
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Data Traffic Explosion caused by Smartphone
SourceAT&T + T-Mobile: A World-Class Platform for the Future of Mobile Broadband, AT&T, March 21, 2011.
http://www.att.com/Common/about_us/pdf/INV_PRES_3-21-11_FINAL.pdf
AT&Ts iPhone brought huge revenue with the dramatically growing trafficHowever, the carriers worry to become Dumb Pipe only providing the network.
24
Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
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Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
SauceCisco
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.html
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.pdf
CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate)
Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
25
Smartphone Application Store
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Smartphone Application Store
Application Store is the place to provides third party developed
application and contents
It makes the mobile industry even much more global
App Store by App;e Android Market by Google
26
Variation of Android Smartphone
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Variation of Android Smartphone
27
Mobile Handset Vendor Profit
http://androidandme.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/color-yellow-en.jpg8/11/2019 Evolution of Mobile Handsets
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Mobile Handset Vendor Profit
501
2,286
11,381
754
971
820
-1,091
2,225
1
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
9
0
0
0
Apple
Samsung
Nokia
HTC
RIM
LG
Motorola
Sony
Ericsson
Year 2007
In million US dollars
9,356
3,779
4,710
1,446
2,718
-607
-198
227
1
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
9
0
0
0
Apple
Samsung
Nokia
HTC
RIM
LG
Motorola
Sony
Ericsson
Year 2010
In million US dollars
SourceStrategy Analytics. Exchange rate as of August 2011 for both charts28
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Analysis of the Mobile Phone Evolution
What are the futures phone like?
29
What the Future Mobile Handset Be Like?
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SmartphonesFeature PhonesBasic Phones
What the Future Mobile Handset Be Like?
Analog
1st Generation
Voice, SMS only
Network
Handset
Category
Function
Handset itself getting more intelligent
Digital
2nd Generation
Multimediacapability
W-CDMA(UMTS)
3rd Generation
Application, PClike function
Cloud computing,handset commoditization
?
4G/ LTE Cloud computing
Next Generation
ExtremelylimitedData/Internet
Limited More internet
use,congested
Getting huge
No device
intelligence
Low device
intelligence
igh device
intelligence What do youth ink???
30
The 4th Generation Handset Factor
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Half of the mobile handset will be smartphone in 2015
Mobile handsets will be more commoditized and hard todifferentiate the terminal itself
Mobile network will be getting much faster
More players flooding into mobile industry, such asinternet company, SNS, and so on
The 4 Generation Handset Factor
31
What are the future mobile phones andservices be like???
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InfoCom Research, Inc.
Yoko Miyashita
Chief Consultant
www.icr.co.jp
Email: [email protected]
http://www.icr.co.jp/http://www.icr.co.jp/