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Evidencefor
Effective
Food SecurityDecision
s
John ScicchitanoUSAID/Food For Peace
FEWS NET Program Manager
Horn of Africa VegetationFeb 2012 vs. Feb 2011
Magnitude of food insecurity
33________________________________________
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
Ethiopia 2012 Beneficiary Estimates1,2
REGION LOW MID HIGH
AFAR 100,000 120,000 140,000
AMHARA 660,000 780,000 890,000
OROMIA 1,860,000 2,190,000 2,520,000
SNNPR 410,000 490,000 560,000
SOMALI 1,060,000 1,250,000 1,430,000
TIGRAY 360,000 420,000 480,000
OTHER REGIONS(Dire Dawa, Harari, Benishangul
Gumuz, Gambella)90,000 100,000 130,000
TOTAL 4,540,000 5,350,000 6,150,0
00
1 6-month equivalent2 Reflects local population needs only. Does not include refugee needs.
5
Integrated Food Security Phase
Classification (IPC)
__________________________________________FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
PHASE SUMMARY DESCRIPTION (AREA)
PHASE 1Minimal
Households are able to meet basic food needs and afford essential non-food expenditure without a reliance on coping strategies or humanitarian assistance.
PHASE 2Stressed
For at least 1 in 5 households, food consumption is reduced but minimally adequate without having to engage in unsustainable coping strategies. However, these households are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures.
PHASE 3Crisis
At least 1 in 5 households face significant food consumption gaps with high or above usual acute malnutrition, or is marginally able to meet minimum food needs only with unsustainable coping strategies such as liquidating livelihood assets.
PHASE 4Emergency
At least 1 in 5 households face extreme food consumption gaps resulting in very high acute malnutrition or excess mortality, or faces extreme loss of livelihood assets that will likely lead to food consumption gaps.
PHASE 5Famine
At least 1 in 5 households have a near complete lack of food and/or other basic needs. Starvation, death, and destitution are evident.
Inter-Agency Agreement
Inter-Agency Agreement
Contracts Inter-Agency Agreement
Inter-Agency Agreement
27 year-old activity
8
Kimetrica
National, Regional,
Internationalinstitutions
24 FEWS NET offices
18 Africa - National3 Africa - Regional1 Haiti1 Guatemala1 Afghanistan
Non-presence coverage of others
Nationality of FEWS Field Representatives American = 0 African = 24 Guatemalan = 1 Afghani = 1 Haitian = 1 9
Satellite Products
Crop water requirements
satisfaction index (WRSI)
Multiple-source daily rainfall
estimation (RFE)
Vegetation Indices (NDVI)
Timor l’Este
1
2
34
A
B
A, B, C = Existing AgMet monitoring focus
1-4 = possible AgMet monitoring windows
C
16
New Agro-Meteorological Monitoring Windows
Excellent Oct-Dec 2011 rains
17
__________________________________________FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA
Horn of Africa - context
18
__________________________________________FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
Mar-May 12 rainfall forecasts
19
Source: FEWS NET/NOAA/USGS
Average March-May rainfall as a percentage of average annual rainfall
Importance of Mar-May rains
__________________________________________FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
Current Conditions
21
__________________________________________FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
Source: FEWS NET Ethiopia