Evidence based guiding principles for developing

adaptation pathways in context of development

EXPLORING SCENARIO PLANNING FOR BUILDING ADAPTATION PATHWAYS FOR

URBAN WATER MANAGEMENT

PRATHIGNA POONACHAConsultantINDIAN INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN SETTLEMENTS

MAITREYI KODUGANTIExternal ConsultantINDIAN INSTITUTE FOR HUMAN SETTLEMENTS

The Transformative Scenario Planning process offers a method to think through the complex, problematicand stuck situations using a systems lens. It offers an opportunity to bring diverse stakeholders of a systemtogether, to identify important drivers of the problem and then to work together towards transformativesolutions

WHO: A set of over 30 stakeholders rangingfrom Government Officials,Representatives from NGOs, Civil Society,Entrepreneurs and Citizen-action Groups.

• OUTCOMES FROM THE TSP: Articulation of a desired future for a water resilient Bangalore;

• Committing to a set of voluntary actionsat an individual and organizational level.

WAY FORWARD: From intentions to action

• Evaluate the usefulness of TSP as amethodology for developing adaptationpathways for a water-resilient Bangalore.

• Reflect on the strengths and challenges forprogressing from transforming intentions totangible actions

CONTEXT: Urbanization, Populationincrease, Climate variability, Decreasedavailability of water resources, Diminishedquality of water, Fragmented governance.

• Participatory process• Forward thinking approach• Strengthening of relationships• Common understanding of a

problem using systems lens.

• Absence of key decision makers• Gap between priming and

pathways• Lack of funds • Time consuming and time

constrained process

STRENGTHS CHALLENGES

Adaptation Pathways: Case of Springs of Devprayag,

UttarakhandSuruchi Bhadwal and Mihir Mathur

The Energy and Resources Institute

New Delhi, India

Story about Water Access and Availability in Mountain Regions and What needs to be

done!

Facing floods: Pathways approach for flood-resilient cotton production in

Pakistan

Samavia BatoolPRISE

Why floods?

• Flood is a recurrent climate threat for Pakistan - 93 flood events in since 1900.

• High end flood risk will almost double during the next 10 years.

Why cotton?

• Cotton contributes around 52% to the export earnings.

• 2010 flood was most devastating and destroyed 21% of the cotton producing area in Pakistan.

How to promote climate resilient development?

• Hence, in order to promote fast, fair and resilient economic development, promoting climate- resilient cotton production is crucial.

Flood Map

Cotton map

❖ ‘Time-based scenario planning’ approach.

❖ Presents ‘high yield’ and ‘low-regret’ interventions.

❖ Identifies tipping points.

❖ Takes into account ‘low flood risk’ and ‘high flood risk scenario’.

❖ Provides valuable insights into future budget allocation and policy focus.

Sneak peek: adaptation pathways

Climate Resilient Development Pathways: A Case Study of Nuwakot,

Nepal

Avash Pandey, Anjal Prakash and Saskia WernersHI-AWARE

Climate Resilient Development Pathways: A Case Study of Nuwakot, Nepal

• Participatory method in visualizing pathways, actions and priorities for future climate resilient development pathways

• Ongoing development and climate challenges in combination with natural disasters and reconstruction especially after earthquake

• Visions of different actors groups are complementary rather than mutually exclusive

• Need for a integration of development, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction

Adaptation policy trajectories in the DECCMA project

Katherine VincentDECCMA

Finance Structure Intensify Diversify Migrate

10-50

50-100

100<

-50--10

-100--50

-10-10

Finance Structure Intensify Diversify Migrate Finance Structure Intensify Diversify Migrate

Finance Structure Intensify Diversify MigrateFinance Structure Intensify Diversify MigrateFinance Structure Intensify Diversify Migrate

MaleFemale

Bangladesh

Ghana

IBD

Mahanadi

MaleFemale

MaleFemale

MaleFemale

Bangladesh

Ghana

IBD

Mahanadi

MaleFemale

MaleFemale

MaleFemale

MaleFemale

A. Minimum intervention B. Capacity expansion C. Efficiency enhancement

D1. System restructuring (Protect) D2. System restructuring (Accommodate) D3. System restructuring (Retreat)

Bangladesh

Ghana

IBD

Mahanadi

Bangladesh

Ghana

IBD

Mahanadi

Bangladesh

Ghana

IBD

Mahanadi

Bangladesh

Ghana

IBD

Mahanadi

Impact of Adaptation Policy Trajectories(% change in number of households compared to baseline)

Integration of migration in the territorial development process of Senegal : Method and Tools

Cheikh Tidiane WadePRISE

Headline findings

• The impact of climate change on the evolution of migration is high in areas where the main cause of migration is degradation of socio-economic and environmental condition

• Social links in destination countries are key determinants of destination for Senegalese migrants

• Experiences of cooperation between European municipalities and municipalities of countries of origins of migrants are spreading thanks to migrants association wishing to contribute in the development of their region of origin.

• Despite the importance of remittances in national wealth, there is still a low level of involvement of the state in the management of remittances; therefore paving the way to emerging new actors (financial institutions) to fill the vacuum.

• In Senegal, there are niches of investment and economic potential in the Niayes and there is a growing number of migrants who decide to return and invest in these high potential areas.

• In areas where remittances are an important source of income, in the absence of the husband, there is some form of reorganization of social dynamics (strengthening of female leadership, more and more women head of household)

17 www.prise.odi.org

18 www.prise.odi.org

Migration is today a major and critical issue inpolicies and programs to promote socio-economic development, particularly in thecontext of the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs). Absence of significant actions fromstates and all the categories of stakeholders arepotential obstacles for the timely achievement

of these goals.

Local planning guideSenegal has a national planning guide technically validated by a multi-stakeholder platform. It is in this document that integrates cross-cutting tools including migration

Tool N°1- Migration profileThis tool measures changes made by migrants, as well as to take into account certain risks.Tool N°2- The control grid "How do I evaluate if my community takes into account migration dimension ?”This tool provides an overview of the community's level of commitment and readiness to take care of the needs of migrantsTool N°3- The grid of identification of the sources of financing and mobilization of migrantsThis tool proposes to identify the centers of interest of the different sources of funding related to migration and which can help programming and budgeting of local development plans.

Adaptation pathway 1

Today

2020 2025 2035 +

We

ll-b

ein

g a

nd

Re

sili

en

ce

Drivers of

change

Best case scenario

Vision

Intermediate scenario

Business as usual

scenario

Time

1. Development of planning tools sensitive to migration

2. Integration of migration into local planning system

3. Strongerconsideration of migration at all level

4. Political and communityengagement

5. Capacity building

local planning guide

integrating migration

dimension

No consideration of migrants

views and contributions when

planning. Migrants invest in

short term activites

Pathways for sustainable solution to recurrent flooding and erosion in

the Teesta sub-basin in Bangladesh

Md. Abu SyedHI-AWARE

Ganai

Rash Harir

Char

Paschim Rash

Harir Char

Uttar

Haibat Kha

Paschim

Haibat Kha

Char

Haibat Kha

Name: Md. Ramzan Ali

Age: 30

2001

2003

2005

2006

20072009

2012

2014

2015

2016

Pathway for sustainable solution to recurrent flooding and erosion in the Teesta, Brahmaputra basin in Bangladesh

Dr. Abu Syed Co-PI, HI-AWARE Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS)Email: mabusyed@gmail.com

Char formation, braiding

and channel migration

Force human out of the

livlihoods and settlements

Water resources management

Fisheries

•Short term migration

•Community based fishing adaptation

Using various nets through mutual collaboration

•Ditch and dyke system

Use of manure in appropriate chemicals, dose etc

•Small-scale homestead pen culture

Teesta barrage project and deep tube-well project by the GOB

Using shallow machine for irrigation

Dredging and river protection works

Participatory planning and management of water infrastructures taking local

knowledge/solutions

Afforestation, application of other soft solution (planting vetiver grasses, small infrastructures

Develop cooperation for basin level river management, so that transboundary issues are

addressed

Develop spatial plan for dredging and sediment management

Develop spatial plan for dredging and sediment management

Afforestation, application of other soft solution (planting vetiver grasses, small

infrastructures

Develop basin level river management plan

Small scale participatory river management

Small-scale homestead pen culture

Dredging and river protection works

Participatory planning and management of water infrastructures taking local knowledge/solutions

Develop spatial plan for dredging and sediment management

Afforestation, application of other soft solution (planting vetiver grasses, small infrastructures

Develop basin level river management plan

Braiding of Teesta

▪River got braided and flow decreased by over 80%

▪Farming land and settlements lost in river

▪Water crisis force human out of the livelihoods and settlements

Politics and pathways in resource-cursed Papua New Guinea

James Butler, Russ Wise, Seona Meharg et al. CSIRO

Resource boom in Bismarck Sea, PNG

Pathways: learning cycles around major development decisions

Achieving sustainable future objectives under uncertain conditions: Practical

application of seven guiding principles for supporting adaptation trajectories in

rural Mali

Edmond Totin, Amadou Sidibé and Mary Thompson-HallASSAR

Research and

diagnostic

studies

Transformative

Scenario

Planning

1

Transformative

Scenario

Planning

2

• Scenarios

• Storylines

• Context

• Barriers and

opportunities

KEY

• Scenarios Outputs/linkages

Stakeholder analysis

informing invitations

Monitoring, Evaluation

and Learning

Scoping

studies (e.g.

Stakeholder

engagement;

Vulnerability

assessment )

• Priorities

• Stakeholder

issues

• Vision

• No regrets

strategies

Piloting

1

Understanding

institutional

context of

priority

strategy(s)

Piloting

2

Testing

identifying

options

• Reflection on the

process to derive

lessons

• Funding

proposals for

strategy

implementation

• Governance

barriers • Pathways

thinking

Scenarios planning PilotingScoping & Diagnostic Phase

Achieving sustainable future

objectives under uncertain

conditions: Practical application

of seven guiding principles for

supporting adaptation

trajectories in rural Mali