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Everything 2.0Everything 2.02 or zero?2 or zero?
Triple Play SymposiumTriple Play Symposium
Gary Kimwww.voipweekly.com
Nobody has 10 YearsNobody has 10 YearsGlobal Carrier Revenue, 2011
500
410Voice $ Billions
Broadband $ Billions
In Western Europe and in North America, broadband revenues exceed PSTN voice by 2009 --Informa
Huge Shift ComingHuge Shift Coming
A Strategic Investment…A Strategic Investment…
Not Necessarily the “Best” Use Not Necessarily the “Best” Use of Reinvested Cash…of Reinvested Cash…
Without FTTH, no business leftInvest, trade market share with cablePlatform then in place for other stuff not
invented yet
No Business Case?No Business Case?
Gross revenue 40-$100/month?– Provider “net” is 50% of gross ($20-$50)
Stranded assets– Cost per passing = cost per sub? No!
FTTH $1000/passing At 33% penetration, $3000/customer Install $700/customer CPE $700/customer (3 set top boxes)
The “Mah Margin” ProblemThe “Mah Margin” Problem
Basic cable 40%Premium (“pay”) 20% or lessPay per View 10% or lessLong tail IPTV? (what would you guess,
based on all the other numbers?)
Change from the OutsideChange from the OutsideBuying Controlled Here
User Need Determined Here
Fax migrates to home. But Email, cheap broadband, cellphone, SMS, Web, Instant Messaging migrate into the enterprise.
“Analog” executives
“Digital” employees
Digital executives
Digital employees
How to Build a $500 Billion How to Build a $500 Billion Annual Revenues BusinessAnnual Revenues Business
Start with a $1 trillion annual revenues business
Lose 7% a yearIn 10 years, you have a $500 billion annual
revenues businessTelcos are losing lines at 5-6% a yearWireless, downsizing has saved them so far
How to Build a $2 Trillion How to Build a $2 Trillion Annual Revenues BusinessAnnual Revenues Business
Create new applications– Cable TV $50 Billion– Movies, Games, Music $157+
Incorporate, embed in new segments– System integration/support $284– Oracle $66– SAP $64
If You’re Going to Do It….If You’re Going to Do It….
Remember what the cable execs say:– “In a competitive market, the lowest cost
provider wins.”
IPTV Isn’t the Solution:IPTV Isn’t the Solution:But it’s a Start…But it’s a Start…
Thanks!
