EVENT™ NATURAL CATASTROPHE UPDATE - Willis Re · PDF fileEVENT™ NATURAL CATASTROPHE UPDATE. ... TC Rammasun July 9 ... Hainan with maximum sustained wind speed of 145

Natural catastrophes in 2013 Page 1

Economic impact and insured losses due to natural disasters June – August 2014 Volume 3 Issue 2

EVENT™ NATURAL CATASTROPHE UPDATE

Natural catastrophes in 2014 Page 2 Volume 3, Issue 2

eVENT Natural Catastrophes in 2014 June to August

Contents

Major natural catastrophes in June – August 2014 ................................................................ 3

Natural catastrophe events by peril and location.................................................................... 9

For further information contact:

Thomas Kiessling, M.Sc. Catastrophe Risk Analyst Willis Re Phone: +49 (0)89 54336 189 Email: [email protected] Willis Re GmbH & Co. KG Nymphenburgerstr. 5 80335 München, Germany

John E. Alarcon, PhD Executive Director, Head of MR&E Willis Re Phone: +44 (0)20 3124 8678 Email: [email protected] Willis Limited 51 Lime Street London EC3M 7DQ, UK

Avinash Chopade Assistant Manager Willis Re Phone: + 91 22 6683 6285 Email: [email protected] Willis Processing Services Plant No.6, Godrej & Boyce Mfg. Co Vikhroli (West) Mumbai – 400 079

Prasad Gunturi Senior Vice President Willis Re Phone: +1 952 841 6638 Email: [email protected] Willis Re Inc. 7760 France Ave., Suite 450 Minneapolis MN 55435, USA

mailto:[email protected]





Major natural catastrophes in June – August 2014

This report summarizes the economic and insured losses from the most relevant natural catastrophe events occurring from June to August of 2014. The loss values presented include Willis Re’s own estimates shortly after the event, as well as those reported by catastrophe model vendors, reinsurance companies and third party organizations.

The largest insured losses from natural disasters from June to August of 2014 came from Windstorm (severe convective storm)

Ela in the month of June affecting Europe, particularly Germany, producing insured losses of EUR 2 billion (USD 2.6 billion).

These losses are closely followed by those in the US after being hit by Severe Convective Storms in early June; the total insured

losses from this event are estimated to be around USD 1.3 billion. Third in terms of large industry losses came from typhoon

Halong at the end of July affecting Japan and leaving about USD1.1 billion of insured losses.

The aforementioned events and others with lower insured losses are described in detail in the first part of this report, listed in

chronological order, while a summary of a number of events occurring from June to August is consigned in various tables at the

end of the document, organized by peril/region affected.

Figure 1. Major natural catastrophes June – August 2014 (Source of map: Willis SpatialKey application)

Earthquake Napa

Storm Ela

Storm USA

Typhoon Halong

Typhoon Rammasun

Earthquake Yunnan



WS USA June 3 - 6, 2014

Central U.S., especially Iowa and Nebraska Insured losses (in B USD)

1.3 (PCS)

Severe thunderstorms brought damaging hail, flash flooding, strong winds and tornadoes to parts of the central United States

Eastern Nebraska and western Iowa were the worst impacted

Two tornadoes (EF-3 and EF-1) reported in Nemaha and Brown counties in the Kansas and Ohio states

Wind gusts upwards of 80 mph were observed and winds as high as 100mph were reported, along with hail more than 4.50 inches in diameter

A very large proportion of homes and cars in Blair town, Nebraska (population ~8,000) were damaged from baseball-sized hail

Localized flooding in Western Indiana, 2.5 inches rainfall

3 fatalities with 1 missing case

In Omaha, Nebraska, dozens of people had to be rescued by boat

33 flights were cancelled at Eppley Airfield, Nebraska; after a record 135mm rainfall

More than 49,000 people experienced power outage

Extensive damage to automobiles, airplanes (Airport Northeast Arkansas), freight trains (thrown off tracks), tractor-trailers (blown over) and roofs, claddings, sidings and walls of buildings, leading to water damage to contents; corn and soya crops were damaged, grain elevators went down, carports and sheds were destroyed

Figure 2. SPC Reports for June 3, 2014

(Source: NOAA)

Figure 3. Straight-line wind (blue) and radar-derived hail (gray) activity on June 3, 2014, reported wind observations (green circles) overlaid (Source: Verisk

Climate)



WS Ela June 8 – 10, 2014

Germany Insured losses (in B EUR)

1.5 - 2 (Willis Re)

1.88 (Munich Re)

Economic losses

(in B EUR)

2.1 (Munich Re)

Western and Central Europe faced Windstorm Ela from June 7 onwards due to a cold front that moved into the region from the west, immediately following a severe heat wave. This windstorm was a Severe Convective Storm that brought hail and strong winds mainly into Germany

North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most densely populated state, was the worst affected area, especially in Düsseldorf

Wind speeds reached150 km/h at the Düsseldorf airport

Hail stones of up to 7 cm diameter observed in Baden-Württemberg, 3 cm in Warstein, North Rhein-Westphalia

> 110,000 lightning bolts causing roof fire and forest fire

A mudslide was reported in the town of Brilon, in the Sauerland region of North Rhine-Westphalia

6 fatalities and dozens injured

Trains and airplanes were disrupted, trams suspended, many roads were not accessible because of fallen trees; smashed cars by debris; power outages

Flooding by rain nearly 20mm in a very short time, affected many cellars in Kassel in homes and commercial buildings including a hospital

Significant crop damage in areas west of Kassel

Although severe hail was observed, the main damage was caused by high winds

Figure 4. Storm Ela over Western Germany on 9 June 2014 20:30 local time (Source: EUMETSAT, Sat24,

WOKSAT via CEDIM)



TC Rammasun July 9 – 20, 2014

Philippines, China and Vietnam Typhoon category 4 (SSHS) at peak, 4 at landfall Insured losses (in B USD)

0.16 (Chinese Department of Civil Affairs)

Economic losses

(in B USD)

6.16 (Chinese Department of Civil Affairs)

4.27 (AIR)

Rammasun was formed in the West Pacific Ocean on Friday 9 July, and tracked westward passing over Guam as tropical depression and quickly strengthened whilst passing over the Philippines, where it was known as Glenda

The typhoon made landfall as a Category 3 storm over Albay, Philippines on 15 July with maximum sustained wind speeds of 115 mph

It weakened to category 2 while passing over Manila and emerging over the South China Sea. It re-intensified and made landfall in southeast China on 17 July as a Category 4 storm: Hainan with maximum sustained wind speed of 145 mph at 15:00 local time. It dissipated after passing through Vietnam

131 fatalities and 443 missing cases

In Philippines, houses collapsed and were damaged, leaving 518,000 people displaced. At least 13.5 m people faced power cuts. Government offices, financial markets, and schools were closed. Nearly 400 flights at Manila International Airport cancelled and 50 ferry vessels were stranded

In China, 256,100 people were evacuated. There was infrastructure damaged and buildings collapsed. Telecommunication networks and water supplies were impacted with over 1.13 m households being left without electricity. Transport and tourist services impacted in China, roadside vehicles were smashed. More than 250 flights were cancelled and gas stations were temporarily closed

In Vietnam, crops worth US $15 m were destroyed, houses damaged, with landslides being triggered, traffic disrupted and ports destroyed. Lang Son province suffered the heaviest damage and casualties. According to reports, more than 1,40,000 people were evacuated

Figure 6. Track of Typhoon Rammasun

(Source: NASA, NOAA)

Figure 7. Infrared satellite image of Rammasun over the Philippines near the time of landfall, 15 July 2014

(Source: NOAA)



TC Halong July 27 – August 15, 2014

Japan Typhoon category 5 (SSHS) at peak, 1 at landfall Insured losses (in B USD)

1.1 (AIR)

Halong was the first typhoon making landfall in Japan after Roke in September 2011

Halong tracked between Guam and Rota Island as a tropical storm and strengthened to a Category 5 storm over the Philippine Sea on August 1. It weakened to Category 1 prior to making landfall over the southeast coast of Kochi Prefecture near the city of Aki, Shikoku Island on August 9, with maximum sustained wind speeds of around 85 mph

Tracking northward, Halong made a second landfall on Japan’s main island of Honshu, at about 10 a.m. JST on August 10

Halong brought strongest winds of 94 mph (150 km/hr) at Cape Muroto Kochi, Shikoku Island

Because of previous antecedent moisture set by Nakri Storm, record rain of 1 meter was recorded in certain locations

1 fatality and 11 injured with over 1.6 million people evacuated on August 9 and 10

The worst affected prefecture from Halong's winds was Tochigi Prefecture, 100 km north of Tokyo, with houses experiencing wind damage including a tornado associated with the outer rain bands of Halong, the major cities of Osaka, Kobe and Kyoto were also affected

> 700 flights were cancelled on the August 9 and 10 weekend. The Tokyo-Osaka bullet train’s 145 services were delayed, affecting 70,000 passengers. Roads were disrupted, > 3,200 houses flooded

Landslides as a result of heavy rainfall reported in Kochi Prefecture, which downed a number of trees

Figure 8. Storm track of Typhoon Halong

(Source: NASA, NOAA)

Figure 9. Typhoon Halong South of Okinawa, Japan

(Source: Earth Observatory)



EQ Yunnan August 3, 2014

Sichuan, China Magnitude 6.2 Economic losses (in B USD)

Between 6.4 and 10 (Willis Re)

<10 (with 75% probability, USGS)

On Sunday, August 3, at 16:30 local time an M 6.2 earthquake struck the mountainous region of Northern Yunnan Province in Ludian County, China. The earthquake was the strongest to strike the area in 14 years

The epicenter was near the town of Longtoushan in Ludian County. The shallow depth of 10.0 km led to strong shaking and severe damage in many areas, particularly Zhaotong. Shaking was felt 300 km from the epicenter, reached the provinces of Guizhou and Sichuan.

The worst of the damage in the province occurred in the mountainous area of Ludian County (population ~430,000),

The earthquake damaged over 219,000 homes to varying degrees in southern China; 25,000 of which were completely destroyed, with damaged roads and bridges, electricity supplies knocked out, and over 1 million people affected

5,410 fatalities in Yunnan Province and over 2,200 injuries

Water pipes and communication lines were down

EQ Napa August 24, 2014

San Francisco, USA Magnitude 6.0 Insured losses (in M USD)

<250 (RMS)

2,100 (Kinetic)

Between 500 and 1,000 (EQECAT)

Economic losses (in B USD)

<10 (with 75% probability, USGS)

At 03:20 local time, on Sunday August 24, 2014 an M 6.0 earthquake struck Napa County in northern California 4 miles from the town of American Canyon

The epicenter was about 5 miles from the Napa Valley, West Napa fault, between 2 major traces of the San Andreas fault

The event was the largest in the Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta M 6.9 earthquake

Damage in American Canyon was minimum whereas downtown of Napa, 6 miles from the epicenter, had significant damage

A power Cut was observed by around 70,000 people across Sonoma, Napa, and Santa Rosa, 250 people were injured

In Napa, highways and roads were damaged

The earthquake triggered approximately 50 fires as gas lines broke. Controlling the fires was difficult due to unavailability of water. Also, broken water lines caused flooding

4 mobile homes destroyed by fire and 2 damaged in Napa

Commercial stores experienced non-structural damage. Serious damage occurred to historic buildings (early 1900). A 10 ft deep crack in the ground a t Napa Vineyard

The winery industry had wine barrel storage damage

Little liquefaction or lateral spreading was observed

Figure 10. The 3 August Yunnan Earthquake

(Source: USGS )

Figure 11. The 24 August Napa Earthquake (Source: USGS )



Natural catastrophe events by peril and location

Windstorm

Name Date Location Losses (B EUR)

Ela June 8 - 10 Germany Insured: 1.5 - 2.0 (Willis Re), 1.88 (Munich Re), Economic: 2.1 (Munich Re)

Tornado – U.S.

Name Date Location EF* Category Losses (M USD)

USA June 3 - 5 USA 3 Insured: 1,305.1 (PCS)

USA June 14 - 18 USA 4 Insured: 467.88 (PCS)

USA June 29 - July 1 USA 2 Insured: 391.84 (PCS)

USA July 26 - 28 USA 3 Insured: 199.9 (PCS)

Tropical Cyclone – Indian Ocean

Name Date Location SSHS** Category Losses (M USD)

Nanauk June 10 - 14 Pakistan, Oman Tropical Storm Not Significant

*EF = Enhanced Fujita Scale ** SSHS = Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale

Hail

Name Date Location Losses (M USD)

South Dakota June 5 - 6 South Dakota, USA Insured: 120.4 (PCS)

Texas June 12 - 13 Texas, USA Insured: 349.5 (PCS)

Great Plains June 24 - 25 Colorado, Wyoming, USA Insured: 196.3 (PCS)

Siberia July Siberia Not Significant

USA July 7 - 9 USA Insured: 243.79 (PCS)

Bulgaria July 8 Sofia, Bulgaria Insured: <64 (Sofia Municipality)

Alberta Aug 8 Airdrie, Alberta, Canada Insured: 450 (IBC via Global News)

Drought


Henan August Henan, Central China Economic: 1,180 (Business Insurance)



Tropical Cyclone – Western Pacific and Oceania


Hagibis June 13 - 17 Southeast China Tropical Storm Economic: >108 (EN News 163)

Neoguri July 2 - 11 Guam, China 4 Insured:1,000 (Artemis)

Rammasun July 9 - 20 Guam, Philippines, China, Vietnam 4 Insured:160, Economic: 6,160 (Chinese Department of Civil Affairs)

Matmo July 16 - 25 Southeast China 2 Insured: not significant (AIR), economic: 544.2 (Business Insurance)

Genevieve July 25 - 27 Mexico, North America 5 Not Significant

Halong July 20 - Aug 15 Japan 5 Insured: 1,100 (AIR)

Nakri July 19 - Aug 4 South Korea Tropical Storm Not Significant

** SSHS = Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale

Tropical Cyclone – Atlantic


Arthur June 30 - July 5 East Coast, USA 2 Insured: <250 (RMS)

Bertha July 26 - Aug 6 Caribbean 1 Economic: 250 – 270 (NWS)

Cristobal Aug 23 - 29 North America 1 Not Significant

Tropical Cyclone – Eastern Pacific


Boris June 2 - 4 Southeast Coast of Mexico, North America Tropical Storm Not Significant

Cristina June 9 - 15 Southwest Coast of Mexico, North America 4 Not Significant

Douglas June 28 - July 5 Southwest Coast of Mexico, North America Tropical Storm Not Significant

Elida June 30 - July 2 Southwest Coast of Mexico, North America Tropical Storm Not Significant

Fausto July 7 - 9 Southwest Coast of Mexico, North America Tropical Storm Not Significant

Wali July 17 - 19 Hawaii, North America Tropical Storm Not Significant

Hernan July 26 - 29 Southwest Coast of Mexico, North America 1 Not Significant

Iselle July 31 - Aug 5 Hawaii, North America 4 Economic: >79.2 (Hawaii Tribune-Herald)

Julio Aug 3 - 8 Hawaii, North America 3 Not Significant

Karina Aug 12 - 27 West Coast of Mexico, North America 3 Not Significant

Lowell Aug 17 - 24 West Coast of Mexico, North America 1 Not Significant

Marie Aug 21 - 29 Southwest Coast of Mexico, North America 5 Not Significant



Landslide


Malin July 30 Pune, India Not Significant

Hiroshima Aug 20 Hiroshima, Japan Not Significant

Guizhou Aug 27 Guizhou, Southern China Not Significant

Wildfire


Washington July 8 Washington , U.S. Not Significant

Northwest July 14 North America, U.S. Not Significant

Oregon Aug 7 Oregon, U.S. Not Significant

Thunderstorm


USA Aug 11 - 13 USA Insured: 504.5 (PCS)

Earthquake

Date Local time Location Mw Losses (M USD)

July 7 6:23 Chipas, Mexico 6.9 Economic: <10,000 (with 78% probability, USGS)

Aug 1 5:11 Northern Algeria 5.6 Economic: <10 (with 92% probability, USGS)

Aug 3 16:30 Yunnan, China 6.2 Economic: 6,400 – 10,000 (Willis Re), <10,000 (with 75% probability, USGS)

Aug 18 7:02 Iran-Iraq Border 6.2 Economic: <100 (with 97% probability, USGS)

Aug 23 19:32 Valparaiso, Chile 6.4 Economic: <100 (with 98% probability, USGS)

Aug 24 3:20 Napa, California 6.0 Insured: <250 (RMS), 2100 (Kinetic), 0.5 – 10 (EQECAT), Economic:<10,000 (with 75% probability, USGS)



Flood


Sri Lanka June 1 Asia Pacific Not Significant

Brazil, Paraguay June 11 South America Not Significant

China June 18 Asia Pacific Economic: 12.2 (UPI)

Minnesota June 19 North America Economic: 7 (San Diego Free Press)

Bulgaria June 20 Europe and Middle East Not Significant

Switzerland July 14 Europe and Middle East Not Significant

Heliongjiang, China July 19 Asia Pacific Economic: 135.27 (AIR)

Germany July 28 Europe and Middle East Not Significant

Switzerland and Italy July 30 Europe and Middle East Not Significant

Eastern and Central Europe July 30 Europe and Middle East Not Significant

Tasmania July 31 Australia Not Significant

Balkans Flooding August 6 Europe and Middle East Not Significant

Odisha, India August 8 Asia Pacific Not Significant

Northeast U.S. August 11 North America Not Significant

Nepal and India August 15 Europe and Middle East Not Significant

Southern Sweden August 20 Europe and Middle East Not Significant

Bangladesh August 25 Asia Pacific Not Significant

South Korea August 26 Asia Pacific Not Significant

Cape Town, South Africa August 29 Africa Not Significant

Southwest China August 31 Asia Pacific Not Significant



Abbreviations

Symbols from Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC)

DR Drought

TC Tropical Cyclone

EQ Earthquake

TO Tornado

FL Flood

TS Thunderstorm

HL Hail

VE Volcanic Eruption

ME Meteoroid

WF Wildfire

LS Landslide

WS Windstorm

Sources AIR (AIR Worldwide: air-worldwide.com), Artemis (artemis.bm), Business Insurance (www.businessinsurance.com), CEDIM (Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology), Chinese Department of Civil Affairs (www.mca.gov.cn), Earth observatory (by NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S.): earthobservatory.nasa.gov), EN News 163 (www.enews163.com), EQE (EQECAT, Inc.: eqecat.com), EUMETSAT, FGDC (Federal Geographic Data Committee: fgdc.gov), GDACS (Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System: gdacs.org), Global News (globalnews.ca), Hawaii Tribune Herald (hawaiitribune-herald.com), IBC (Insurance Bureau of Canada: www.ibc.ca), Kinetic Analysis Corporation (www.kinanco.com), Munich Re , NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S.: nasa.gov), NHC (National Hurricane Center: nhc.noaa.gov), NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA: noaa.gov), NWS (National weather Service: www.weather.gov), PCS (Property Claims Services: verisk.com/property-claim-services), Phys (phys.org), Reuters (reuters.com), RMS (Risk Management Solutions: rms.com), San Diego Free Press (sandiegofreepress.org), Sat24 (Sat24.com), Sofia Municipality (www.sofia.bg), SPC (Storm Prediction Center, NOAA’s National Weather Service: spc.noaa.gov), UPI (www.upi.com), USGS (United States Geological Survey: usgs.gov), Verisk Climate (www.veriskclimate.com), Willis Re, Willis SpatialKey Application, WOKSAT (woksat.info)

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EVENT™ NATURAL CATASTROPHE UPDATE - Willis Re · PDF fileEVENT™ NATURAL CATASTROPHE UPDATE. ... TC Rammasun July 9 ... Hainan with maximum sustained wind speed of 145