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Evaluation Plan for Geotargeted Efficiency ProgramsNovember 19, 2008

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Describe draft plan– EVT/DPS collaboration (as requested)

Gather feedback from this group– Reality Check– Ideas for improvement

Purpose of this presentation

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Evaluation Purpose

Proof of concept– What level of savings can targeted EE deliver? – How fast? How much does it cost?– Are savings delivered to constrained circuits?

How?– Through Process Evaluation– Verification of Savings Claims – Correlation of savings to the constraint in question

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Not the Purpose!

The Evaluation will NOT determine if a particular transmission or distribution investment has been deferred or avoided– (but results can help!)

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DPS getting help (Phew!)

Plan to hire a contractor – EEU Evaluation Budget

Contractor to help develop selected areas of evaluation

Kick off meeting where work plan is discussed

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Evaluation Boundaries

Four Original Geotargeted Areas– Southern Loop– North Chittenden– St. Albans– Newport/Derby

18 months of program activity– June/July 2007 – December 2008

Leverage DPS ongoing evaluations

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Five-piece evaluation framework

Target area selection, collaboration efforts Program implementation Savings verification Correlation of savings results at constraint Long term evaluation

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Target Selection Process Eval

Goal: Increase confidence that selected areas have undergone robust review

Review and make recommendations as to – Broad process including all parties– Development of Target area proposals

DPS Contractor/Surveys/Spring 2009

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Target Selection Process Eval

How were the original target areas chosen?

How did information barriers and time constraints affect the choices made?

What are perspectives of key parties regarding process & communication?

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Implementation Process Eval

Goal: Reflection to help inform decisions– Program design and implementation process– How overall budgets are best utilized

DPS Contractor/Surveys/Spring 2009– Surveys of EVT/Customers & Trade Allies/etc.

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Implementation Process Eval

What were lessons learned?– How were contract goals set and did they affect

program design?– Are there opportunities to improve effectiveness?

How did GT focus affect statewide delivery of efficiency resources?

Were lost opportunities created?

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Savings Verification

Goal: Verify EVT GT Savings in each targeted area

Current DPS Contractor June/July 2009 Researchable questions include:

– How do GT area savings compare w/ non-GT? MWh and MW savings, cost/kWh, TRB, etc.

– Are GT interventions a ‘no regrets’ strategy?

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System Impact Evaluation

Goal: Determine EE savings correlation to particular circuit

DPS Contractor - Analysis of Utility & Verification data– What is available?

July - October 2009

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System Impact Evaluation

What are trends shown by substation data analysis?– Before/during/after implementation of GT services?– Compared to forecasted load growth?

Is it possible to detect GT impacts at substation level?

Were there other influences that significantly affected circuits positively or negatively?

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Long-term evaluation questions

Not necessarily answered in the next year or by this process

What is correlation between savings at ISO peaks vs. local/VELCO peaks?

How do we verify current T&D capacity assumptions and track any deferral decisions?

What additional information is necessary to help assess effectiveness of GT programs?

Others?

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The End

Thoughts/Ideas/Questions?

THANK YOU!

TJ Poor

Department of Public Service

802-828-0544

Walter.poor@state.vt.us