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Evaluation of the Accuracy of Naslund’s Approximation for
Managerial Decision Making under Uncertainty
Hiiseyin Sarper
University of Southern Colorado 2200 Bonforte Boulevard Pueblo, Colorado 81001-4901
Transmitted by Dr. Melvin R. Scott
ABSTRACT
This paper uses Chance-Constrained Mathematical Programming (CCP) as a tool
in project selection when the coefficients involved are independent normal random
variables. The main contribution of the paper centers around showing how well chance-constrained programs can be solved using Naslund’s approximation instead of other mathematical methods. If a given decision process involves a degree of uncer-
tainty in its parameters and only binary decisions are required, then it is shown that approximation is the only available solution method.
1. INTRODUCTION
Risk is a major element in decision process. Chance-Constrained Mathe- matical Programming (CCP) is one way to include risk into ordinary linear mathematical models. CCP describes constraints in the form of probability levels of attainment. Rao [9] provides a complete treatment on the origins and the theory of CCP. In CCP, coefficients have typically been assumed to follow a normal distribution with known means and variances. Consider the following model:
Maximize F(X) = E,, (I) j=l
APPLZED MATHEMATZCS AND COMPUTATION 55:73-87 (1993)
0 Elsetier Science Publishing Co., Inc., 1993
73
655 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10010 0096-3003/93/$6.00
74 HikEYiN SARPER
subject to
Pr[{ruijXj <bi] api for i = 1,2,...,m (2)
Xi > 0 forj = 1,2,...n (3)
where cj, aij, and bi are normal random variables and pi’s are prespecified probabilities. The above model would be the extreme case of stochasticity since all three coefficients are random variables. Typically, hi’s and/or aij’s and/or cj’s are considered as random. Considering only independently and normally distributed coefficients, three basic cases are as follows:
1) When only hi’s are random: Let ei (nonnegative) represent a standard normal variate at which O(ei> = I - pi. Then (1) remains the same and each constraint of type (2) takes the deterministic form of (4). No nonlinear terms result in this case:
~~ij~j-hi-ei[var(b,)]1’2$0, fori=1,2,...,m. (4) j=1
2) When only aij’s are random: (1) remains the same, but constraints (2) now become nonlinear as shown below.
~~~jXj+er[~rVar(ll;)r:]ll-b~<O fori=1,2,...,m. (5) j=l
3) When only cj’s are random: (2) remains the same, but the objective function (1) becomes nonlinear as shown below.
(6)
In (6) above, k, and k, are nonnegative coefficients that indicate the relative importance of minimizing mean and variance. For example, setting both k,
and k, equal to 1 indicates equal importance of minimizing both mean and
Decision Making under Uncertainty 75
variance. If all three coefficients are random, then the objective function remains as in (6) and each constraint (2) takes the form shown below.
Xi + e,[Var(hi)]i” < 0
n
for i = 1,2,..., rn whereXi = c Zijxj - zi for all i. (7) j=l
When some or all of the coefficients are correlated, equations similar to (4)-(7) above are given by Rao [9]. If the coefficients follow a distribution other than the normal distribution, there are no closed form equations reported in the literature as nonnormal coefficients have not really been studied in the CCP context. Then, one solution method would be to approxi- mate these distributions into a normal one.
The difficulty of a CCP solution starts after the deterministic equivalents are written. Except for only when hi’s are random, each constraint and/or the objective function consists of two segments: linear and nonlinear terms. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of a method that approximates the nonlinear segment into a linear one. The nonlinear segment has the form of (Cz= iv, Xi)l/’ where V, is the variance, if any, of the bi term. The problem has m - 1 decision variables with variances V, through V,,_ r. Variable X,, which arises, is simply ignored. Once approximated, variable coefficients of the linearized segment are added to linear segment coefficients to end up with a completely linear model. If a nonlinear solution is desired, the decision maker has some tools available. Wasil, et al. [12] review six major nonlinear optimization software packages and compare them by using a four variable example in which the objective function is mildly nonlinear and all the constraints are linear. The authors state that many real-world problems fit this type of format. Then, the NonLinear Problem (NLP) class presented in this paper has not been covered in [12]. The case of a linear or nonlinear objective function coupled with a nonlinear constraint set represents a different level of complexity. The problem expressed by (4)-(7) is certainly a very real type problem that describes the risk inherent in all decision making processes such as the case of the project selection problem under budget constraints. It is reasonable to expect that the available budget and the project requirements become more uncertain for future years. The problem becomes more realistic if each available budget is expressed as a random variable. This real-world problem can either be solved using one of the software packages reviewed in [I21 or it can be approximated into a Linear Problem (LP). [12] d oes not clearly claim that GINO [4] is the best NLP software package, but GINO appears to perform better than the
76 HikEYiN SARPER
other five based upon various criteria. Thus, GINO is used in this paper to solve all nonlinear programs.
Another major problem with all NLP software is the lack of ability to solve binary or even general integer type problems. In fact, [12] does not mention any integer variables at all. The purpose of this paper is to compare the performance of Naslund’s method of approximating NLP types [5] presented earlier. GINO software is used in solving a small and a large problem for comparison with the approximate solution. GINO uses a generalized reduced gradient method that requires that the constraint set be convex. While manually solving another four variable deterministic equivalent of a CCP, Panne and Popp [7] p rove that the constraints of the form (5) provide a convex set even when covariances exist. Then, the use of GINO is possible.
2. NASLUND’S APPROXIMATION [5]
This approximation is based on fitting an affine function through n + 1 solution points. The nonlinear square root portion of each constraint of the deterministic equivalent is converted into an approximate linear form and then added to the rest of the constraint. If the objective function has any nonlinear (square root) terms due to stochastic cj coefficients, this approxi- mation, shown below, can also be used to linearize the objective function.
(~lvmx.i)l’z G (&L}“’
V,,, is the coefficient of each decision variable X, in the square root section. At the end of the approximation process, a constant is obtained and it is carried over to the right-hand side after changing its sign. This method requires no additional variables or constraints. The right-hand side of (8) can be easily programmed as a subroutine of any Mathematical Programming Software (MPS) formatted input generator code. Then, any general purpose mathematical optimizer can be used for the solution. The example below illustrates how this approximation can be used in linearization of the square
Decision Making under Uncertainty 77
root of a sum of binary variables. The expression (9) below is typically encountered in binary CCP problems,
( 103.7~; + 112.5~; + 68.5~; + 76x,2 + 40x,;
+102x,2 + 61x; + 75x,2 + 14x,2 + 36r;~)“’ (9)
where X,,..., Xi, E [O.l]. Application of Naslund’s approximation (8) to the above nonlinear expression results in the following linear form:
2.05X, + 2.24X, + 1.34X, + 1.49X, + 0.77X, + 2.02X,
+ 1.19X, + 1.47X, + 0.26X, + 0.69X,, + 12.72. (10)
The constant 12.72 has to be ignored if (9) is part of an objective function and carried over to the right-hand side if (9) is part of a constraint. If all X’s are 0, then (10) equals 12.72. This represents the largest error value between the original expression (9) and its approximation (10). If all X’s are l’s, then (9) equals to 26.2431, while (10) results in 26.2400 with an error rate of 0.012%. In project selection type decisions, the number of variables are often large. The approximation performs better as the number of variables in- creases. A code is used in comparing the actual values of (9) with those of
(10) for all 1,024 combinations of the ten O-l variables: The average amount of error is 8.9% over all combinations, but the error rate falls rapidly as the number of l’s in a given combination is increased. For example,
l The average error is 7.93% if there are at least two 1’s. l The average error is 3.30% if there are at least five 1’s. l The average error is 2.00% if there are at least seven 1’s.
3. LITERATURE REVIEW ON CCP SOLUTIONS
It is not the intent here to review the entire field of CCP, but it will be noted that CCP is often described as one of the major components under the topic of stochastic programming. Although there are many references in CCP itself, not all references provide examples with clear solution methods. Hillier [2] provides a mathematical method to solve problems similar to ones considered here. Olson and Swenseth [6] p rovide another approximation that can only be used with continuous decision variables. Rakes et al. [8] use a separable programming method in solving expressions like (5) in their pro- duction planning example that has three decision variables and three time
78 HikEYiN SARPER
periods. Seppala and Orpana [ll] present a very different approximation method that converts (5) into linear form by creating many additional supporting constraints. Recently, Weintraub and Vera [I31 proposed a conver- gent cutting plane algorithm to solve the deterministic equivalent of CCP’s when the coefficients are normal random variables. This new method is applicable strictly for the non-integer variables case. The authors compare the accuracy of their method with nonlinear solutions found by using the MINOS package, which is one of the packages reviewed in 1123. Without referencing Panne and Popp [7], Weintraub and Vera [13] themselves show that con- straints of the form of (5) do indeed f orm a convex set, thus enabling the use of NLP codes such as MINOS and GINO. [13] does not refer to [5] either while reviewing other solution methods such as [6, 111.
It is clear that the value of Naslund’s approximation (8) has not been not been noticed much. This approximation appears to be the only direct means of solving binary CCP’s. There are only two references that use (8) in making decisions. De, et al. [l] and Keown and Taylor [3] are the ones who have used (8) in solving the nonlinear programs encountered once the deterministic equivalent of the CCP are found. Both references use relatively small examples. There is no reference in the literature that seeks to evaluate the accuracy of Naslund’s approximation other than Naslund [5] himself while geometrically explaining the accuracy of his method using small examples.
4. EXAMPLES
This section uses two sample problems to evaluate the performance of Naslund’s approximation. These problems are similar to project selection problems with the goal of maximization of net present value subject to various resource constraints.
4.1. Small Problem
Consider the following project selection problem in which available re- sources and the required resources for each project are both normal and independent variables. The objective function’s coefficient, initially, are de- terministic,
subject to:
Maximize [10X, + 15X, + 20X, + 14X,] (II)
(100;5)X, + (150;6)X, + (215;8)X, + (85;3)X, < (50095) (12)
(25;2)X, + (15;2)X, + (10;2)X, + (35;3)X, < (74;4) (13)
Decision Making under Uncertainty 79
(40;3)X, + (OS;O.l)X, + (20;2)X, + (&1)X, < (60;5) (14)
Xj E [0, l] (Case 1)
0 < X < 1 (Case 2)
Xj 2 0 (Case 3).
Case 1 is the most typical scenario encountered in decision making. The decision maker needs to know which projects to accept and which ones to reject. There is little distinction between the nonlinear and linear programs where binary choice is concerned. All binary problems can be written in linear form though sometimes at the cost of new extra variables. This case is still considered since it is very important in the decision process. Case 2 is also relevant in decision making by allowing the decision maker to round up or down the resulting Xi’s if there is no easy way solving the resulting nonlinear program in Case 1. In fact, this is exactly what current nonlinear programming software cannot accomplish. Case 3 could be applicable when Xj’s represent product-mix type decisions, rather than Yes/No type project selection decisions.
The numbers in each parenthesis (12)-(14) indicate the mean and the standard deviation of the respective coefficient. If management requires that each constraint should have at least 99% probability of not being violated, the constraints take the following deterministic equivalent, but nonlinear form. (5) is used in converting (E-(14) into (15)-(17).
100X, + 150X, + 215X, + 85X,
+ 2.33(25X; + 36X; + 64X; + 9X3,2 + 225)i” < 500 (15)
25X, + 15X, + 10X, + 34X,
+ 2.33(4X; + 4X; + 4X,2 + 9X3,2 + 16)i” < 74 (16)
40x, + 0.5x, + 20X, + 5x,
+ 233(9X,z + 0.01X; + 4X; + X4” + 25)“’ < 60 (17)
Figure A.1 shows the convex set formed when (15) is plotted after dropping variables X, and X,. The linearized form of the constraints
80 HikEYiN SARPER
FIG. A.l. 2251”“.
Plot of the constraint Y =f(X,, X,) = 100X, + 150X, + 2.33[25X; + 36X; +
(15)~(17) using Naslund’s approximation (8) are shown below.
101,56X, + 152.27X, + 219.13X3, + 85.56X, < 464.37 (18)
25.79X, + 15.79X, + 10.79X, + 36.84X, < 64.03 (19)
41.79X3, + 0.50X, + 20.77X3, + 5.19X, < 48.19 (20)
Using LINDO [lo], Table 1 h s ows the solutions found under each of the three cases using both methods. It is clear that the approximation (8) performs very well and it actually allows one to solve binary CCP’s. Nonlinear general integers, not even the binary, are among the hard problems in Operations Research and there is no known software that can solve them when the problem size gets very large. Next, the objective function is made stochastic by letting each Xj have a standard deviation that is equal to 10%
Decision Making under Uncertainty 81
TABLE 1 COMPARISON USING THE SMALL EXAMPLE
Case 1 Case 2 Case 3
Naslund’s (*) Naslund’s GINO Naslund’s GINO
Xl 0 0 0.143851 0.087032 0 0 X, 1 1 1.0 1.0 0 0.542023 X3 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.626532 1.289455 X, 1 1 0.915855 0.984935 1.261664 1.148632 Z 49 49 49.26 49.66 50.19 50.00
* This column is found by complete enumeration of Equations 11, 15, 16, and 17. GINO, at present, does not handle integer models.
of the mean value shown in (11). The nonlinear objective function is shown in (21) by letting k, = k, = 1.
Maximize
[10X, + 15X, + 20X, + 14X, + (X; + 2.25X; + 4X; + 1.96X;)i”]
(21)
Figure A.2 shows another convex set formed by plotting (21) after dropping variables X, and X,. Both Figures A.1 and A.2 are convex although both appear almost as planes. This is not unexpected as each expression is the sum of linear and some nonlinear components. As noted before, convexity is proved in [7] and [13]. Using (81, th e 1 inearized form of the deterministic equivalent of the objective function (21) is shown in (22) below.
10.1695X, + 15.3966X, + 20.7523X, + 14.3422X, + 1.374 (22)
Table 2 compares the solutions for the same problem when the objective function is stochastic. Again, the results are essentially the same.
4.2. Large Problem
A 14 X 40 matrix is used. The mean of each aij is randomly chosen within the range of 1 to 99. Table A.1 shows this data. The standard deviation of each aij is set at 10% (not shown) of the mean value. The cj’s (net present values or project benefits) are deterministic and shown in Table A.2. The mean of the right-hand sides, b,‘s, are shown in Table A.3. For each row, the
82 HiiSEYiN SARPER
FK;. A.2 Plot of the objective function Y =fCX,, X,1 = 10X, + 15X, + CX,” + 2.25X2)“2. 2
TABLE 2
COMPARISON USING THE SMALL EXAMPLE WITH RANDOM Cj’S
Case 1 Case 2 Case 3
Naslund’s (*) Naslund’s GINO Naslund’s GINO
Xl 0 0 0.143851 0.087029 0 0 x, 1 1 1.0 1.0 0 0
x3 1 1 1.0 1.0 1.626532 1.606930 & 1 1 0.915855 0.984939 1.261664 1.266324
z 51.87 51.87 52.12 52.52 53.22 53.54
* This column is found by complete enumeration of Equations 15, 16,
17, and 22.
TABLE A.1
14 x 40 HANDOMLY
PIC:KF,I, MEAN
ai, COEFFICIENT
MATHIX
b
8.
Cohmns
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
2.
3"
Row1
16
37
08
99
12
34
23
64
36
35
68
90
35
60
97
09
34
33
50
50
%
Row2
66
31
85
63
73
24
38
22
50
13
36
91
58
39
98
91
49
45
23
68
R
_.
Row3
08
11
83
88
99
45
43
36
46
46
70
32
12
92
76
86
46
16
28
35
G-z
Row4
65
80
74
69
09
40
51
54
16
68
45
96
33
94
75
08
99
23
37
08
Row5
91
5
80
44
12
63
83
77
05
15
40
43
34
44
48
80
33
69
45
98
26
Row6
61
15
94
42
23
89
20
69
45
96
33
83
77
03
68
58
70
73
41
35
g
Row7
04
35
59
46
32
05
15
40
43
34
44
89
20
14
03
33
40
42
05
08
2
Row8
69
19
45
94
98
69
31
97
05
59
02
35
58
04
49
35
24
94
45
86
Row9
33
80
79
18
74
40
44
01
76
64
19
09
80
10
25
61
96
27
93
35
5
s.
Row10
54
11
48
69
07
34
45
02
05
03
14
39
06
71
24
72
23
28
72
95
&
Qz
Row11
49
41
38
87
63
86
87
17
17
77
66
14
68
46
05
88
52
36
01
39
Row12
79
19
76
35
58
26
85
26
95
67
97
73
75
86
77
28
14
40
34
88
Row13
40
44
01
10
51
64
26
45
01
87
20
01
19
39
09
47
34
07
35
44
Row14
82
16
15
01
84
36
45
41
96
71
98
77
80
77
55
73
22
70
97
79
Columns
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Row1
07
34
24
23
38
64
36
35
26
45
74
77
74
51
92
43
37
37
29
65
Row2
47
68
90
35
22
50
13
36
39
45
95
93
42
58
26
65
27
31
53
39
Row3
54
91
58
45
43
36
46
46
15
47
44
52
66
95
27
07
99
21
36
78
Row4
09
32
12
40
51
59
54
16
38
48
82
39
61
01
18
33
21
60
15
94
Row5
94
68
45
96
33
83
77
05
66
46
16
28
35
54
94
75
08
70
99
23
Row6
53
56
15
40
43
34
44
89
37
08
92
48
42
58
26
04
27
22
05
52
Row7
37
20
69
31
97
05
59
02
28
25
62
90
10
33
93
33
78
39
56
01
Row 8
25
35
58
40
91
04
47
43
06
70
61
74
29
41
85
39
41
21
18
38
Row9
33
68
98
74
52
87
03
34
32
97
92
65
75
53
14
03
33
12
40
42
Row10
29
42
06
64
13
71
82
42
05
08
23
41
13
74
67
78
18
14
47
54
Row11
22
39
88
99
33
08
94
70
06
10
68
71
17
78
17
60
97
51
09
34
Row12
88
45
01
25
20
96
93
23
33
50
50
07
39
98
94
86
43
09
19
94
Row13
13
48
36
71
24
68
54
34
36
16
81
68
51
34
88
88
15
08
53
01
Row14
01
19
52
05
14
07
94
98
54
03
54
56
05
01
45
11
76
89
18
63
TA
BL
E A
.2
OB
JEC
TIV
E
FU
NC
TIO
N
CO
EF
FIC
IEN
TS
FO
H T
IIE
1.
AH
C.E
EX
AM
PLE
x x
x x
x x
x x
x x
x x
x x
x x
x x
x x
1 2
3 4
5 6
7 8
9 10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
450
789
345
123
567
156
150
0 18
9 12
3 26
7 35
6 12
0 28
9 14
5 15
3 16
7 25
6 22
0 48
9
x x
x x
x x
x x
x x
x x
x x
x x
x x
x x
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
345
463
367
426
320
429
385
261
157
506
422
439
435
233
357
236
232
528
284
294
TA
BL
E A
.3
ME
AN
R
IGH
T
IIA
ND
S
IDE
(H
HS
) V
ALU
ES
(H
ES
OU
HC
E
LIM
ITS
) FO
R
THE
LA
HC
E
EX
AM
PLE
Row
1
2 3
4 5
6 7
8 9
10
11
12
13
14
RII
S
1080
.6
1222
.2
1202
.4
1096
.2
1287
.0
1134
.0
887.
4 11
30.4
11
82.4
90
7.8
1168
.8
1314
.6
906.
6 11
88
Decision Making under Uncertainty 85
mean hi’s were set at 60% of the sum of the requirements shown in Figure A.l. The standard deviation of each bi was set at 15% of the mean. The above data corresponds to a project selection with 40 competing projects. The optimal project mix is to be selected under 14 different resource constraints when aij’s and b,‘s are independent normal random variables.
1. Version 1. This version of large problem contains the first five con- straints and the first 30 variables of the problem shown in Tables A.l, A.2, and A.3. Since Case 1 or binary solution is not possible for the nonlinear deterministic equivalents, it was decided to enumerate all 230 possible binary combinations of decision variables Xi, X,, . , X3,. A FORTRAN code was used in checking the feasibility of each combination in constraints similar to (l5)-(17) and selecting the combination that maximized the objective func- tion. This process took about 79 hours of CPU time on a PRIME 6150 mainframe computer operating at eight million operations per second. The deterministic equivalents were also approximated using (8) and solved on LINDO [lo] quickly. U d n er both methods, identical project mix
(X,, X,, X.5, X,, Xi,, X,,, X,,, X,,, X,,, X,,, X,,, X,,, X,,, X,,, x3,) with
objective function value of 6,286 was selected. 2. Version 2. This version involves the full data. Case 1 is not solvable
using GINO. Table 3 shows the optimal values found under both methods. Case 1 using the approximation (8) results in selection of projects No. 1, 2, 5, 12, 20, 22, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 30, 33, 37, and 38. Case 2, using GINO, resulted in exact selection of projects No. 2, 5, 12, 20, 21, 22, 26, 27, 28, 30, 32, 33, and 38. The corresponding decision variables for these projects were found as 1.0 by GINO although each was restricted as X3 < 1. X, = 0.748, X, = 0.692, and X3T = 0.501 were also found. If management decides to round up all X’s greater than 0.50 to 1.0, projects No. 1, 25, and 37 could also be selected. Then, projects No. 21, 24, 25, and 32 are the only ones not selected under both scenarios (Case 1 using approximation and Case 2 using
TABLE 3
COMPARISON OFO~IMALVALUES USINGTHE L,ARGEEXAMPLE(VERSI~N 2)
Optimal Value Found Via
Method Naslund’s GINO
Case 1
Case 2
Case 3
6,636.OO
6,851.OO
9,087.OO
not
solvable
6,847.95
8,901.27
86 HiiSEYiN SARPER
GINO). Comparison of strictly Case 2 solutions under each method provide almost identical values. Finally, comparison of Case 3 solutions is as follows: X, = 6.52, (app roximation) vs 6.32 (GINO), X, = 0.38 vs 0.43, X,, = 4.96 vs 4.83, X,, = 0.60 vs 0.54, and X,, = 2.21 vs 2.25.
5. CONCLUSION
This note shows that little used Naslund’s approximation is a very good tool for quick solution of CCP’s. Project selection problems involving few decision variables can be solved even by complete enumeration. As the number of decision variables grows, enumeration becomes prohibitive. The set of projects selected via Naslund’s approximation can also be used as lower bound or a trial solution in a branch and bound based implicit enumeration scheme. Case 3 solutions obtained from the approximation may also be useful when the number of continuous decision variables is in excess of the current limit of the particular NLP software available.
REFERENCES
1
2
3
4
5
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