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12/12/2009. Evaluation of precipitation from reanalyses and satellite products in Australia and East Asia. Gauge + Satellite. Gauge only. http://eos.csiro.au/. CSIRO land and Water/water for a healthy country. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Evaluation of precipitation from reanalyses and satellite products in Australia and East AsiaJorge L. Peña Arancibia, Albert I.J.M. van Dijk, Luigi J. Renzullo and Tim Raupach, all at CSIROMark Mulligan KCL24 April 2012CSIRO LAND AND WATER/WATER FOR A HEALTHY COUNTRY
Gauge + Satellite
Gauge only
12/12/2009
http://eos.csiro.au/
Data and methods NCEP-DOE, JRA-25, ERA-Interim, TRMM 3B42 V6, CMORPH, PERSIANN FD mapped ensemble precipitation SILO (Jeffrey et al., 2001, ENVSOFT),
APHRODITE SEA (Yatagai et al., 2009, SOLA) Detection and agreement metrics for 2003–
2007 (rainfall >1mm d-1).
Global satellite and reanalyses precipitation
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
Six member statistics
FD mapped ensemble
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
iensPprobprob ,* *probPP obsadj
prob* is the probability of the value Pens on day i in the ensemble precipitation time series (Pens), Padj is the empirically adjusted precipitation time series, Pobs is the observed precipitation time series, Pens is the ensemble time series
Detection: occurrence of precipitation
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
How well did the forecast "yes" events correspond to the observed "yes" events(accounting for hits due to chance)?
random
random
hitssfalsealarmmisseshits
hitshitsETS
total
sfalsealarmhitsmisseshitshitsrandom
ETS
Detection: occurrence of precipitation
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
How well did the forecast "yes" events correspond to the observed "yes" events(accounting for hits due to chance)?
ETSETS
Colour codes means best product: red for reanalysis and blue for satellite, ensemble black
Detection: occurrence of precipitation
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
ETS
Range: -1/3 to 1, 0 indicates no skill. Perfect score: 1.
Agreement: quantity/timing of precipitation
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
Pmonth: difference in the ratio of monthly precipitation amount to total days with precipitation
Correlation RMSD Pmonth
Pmonth
RMSD
Correlation
Agreement: quantity/timing of precipitation
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
Pmonth: difference in the ratio of monthly precipitation amount to total days with precipitation
Correlation RMSD Pmonth
Agreement: quantity/timing of precipitation
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
Pmonth: difference in the ratio of monthly precipitation amount to total days with precipitation
Pmonth
RMSD
Correlation
TS averaged over the entire domain
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
Correlation
ETS
RMSD
Pmonth
Summary
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
Diff
Rank ETS POD FAR BIAS Correlation RMSD Pmonth (%)
1 0.27 (±0.05) 0.63 (±0.09) 0.43 (±0.07) 0.94 (±0.11) 0.42 (±0.09) 6.94 (±1.5) 1.83 (±11.8)
2 0.27 (±0.05) 0.62 (±0.08) 0.46 (±0.06) 1.06 (±0.23) 0.40 (±0.08) 7.11 (±1.6) -3.7 (±11.3)
3 0.26(±0.06) 0.55 (±0.07) 0.46 (±0.09) 0.93 (±0.21) 0.39 (±0.08) 7.16 (±1.6) -10. (±11.3)
4 0.23 (±0.04) 0.57 (±0.09) 0.47 (±0.07) 1.13 (±0.14) 0.35 (±0.09) 7.72 (±1.7) -11. (±7.21)
5 0.20 (±0.05) 0.44 (±0.07) 0.48 (±0.07) 0.82 (±0.11) 0.31 (±0.05) 8.10 (±1.6) -11. (±9.71)
6 0.20 (±0.06) 0.42 (±0.07) 0.48 (±0.10) 1.21 (±0.25) 0.31 (±0.09) 8.18 (±1.8) 28.0 (±7.99)
7 0.11 (±0.04) 0.34 (±0.07) 0.59 (±0.09) 1.29 (±0.14) 0.15 (±0.05) 10.9 (±2.5) 33.2 (±12.2)
NCEP-DOE JRA-25 ERA-InterimTRMM 3B42 V6 CMORPH PERSIANN Ensemble
POD: probability of detection (0-1) perfect score 1FAR: false alarm ratio (0-1) perfect score 0BIAS: bias in over (>1) or underdetecting (<1) perfect score 1
Summary
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
Diff
Rank ETS POD FAR BIAS Correlation RMSD Pmonth (%)
1 0.27 (±0.05) 0.63 (±0.09) 0.43 (±0.07) 0.94 (±0.11) 0.42 (±0.09) 6.94 (±1.5) 1.83 (±11.8)
2 0.27 (±0.05) 0.62 (±0.08) 0.46 (±0.06) 1.06 (±0.23) 0.40 (±0.08) 7.11 (±1.6) -3.7 (±11.3)
3 0.26(±0.06) 0.55 (±0.07) 0.46 (±0.09) 0.93 (±0.21) 0.39 (±0.08) 7.16 (±1.6) -10. (±11.3)
4 0.23 (±0.04) 0.57 (±0.09) 0.47 (±0.07) 1.13 (±0.14) 0.35 (±0.09) 7.72 (±1.7) -11. (±7.21)
5 0.20 (±0.05) 0.44 (±0.07) 0.48 (±0.07) 0.82 (±0.11) 0.31 (±0.05) 8.10 (±1.6) -11. (±9.71)
6 0.20 (±0.06) 0.42 (±0.07) 0.48 (±0.10) 1.21 (±0.25) 0.31 (±0.09) 8.18 (±1.8) 28.0 (±7.99)
7 0.11 (±0.04) 0.34 (±0.07) 0.59 (±0.09) 1.29 (±0.14) 0.15 (±0.05) 10.9 (±2.5) 33.2 (±12.2)
NCEP-DOE JRA-25 ERA-InterimTRMM 3B42 V6 CMORPH PERSIANN Ensemble
and the winner is…ensemble!!!
Summary
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
Diff
Rank ETS POD FAR BIAS Correlation RMSD Pmonth (%)
1 0.27 (±0.05) 0.63 (±0.09) 0.43 (±0.07) 0.94 (±0.11) 0.42 (±0.09) 6.94 (±1.5) 1.83 (±11.8)
2 0.27 (±0.05) 0.62 (±0.08) 0.46 (±0.06) 1.06 (±0.23) 0.40 (±0.08) 7.11 (±1.6) -3.7 (±11.3)
3 0.26(±0.06) 0.55 (±0.07) 0.46 (±0.09) 0.93 (±0.21) 0.39 (±0.08) 7.16 (±1.6) -10. (±11.3)
4 0.23 (±0.04) 0.57 (±0.09) 0.47 (±0.07) 1.13 (±0.14) 0.35 (±0.09) 7.72 (±1.7) -11. (±7.21)
5 0.20 (±0.05) 0.44 (±0.07) 0.48 (±0.07) 0.82 (±0.11) 0.31 (±0.05) 8.10 (±1.6) -11. (±9.71)
6 0.20 (±0.06) 0.42 (±0.07) 0.48 (±0.10) 1.21 (±0.25) 0.31 (±0.09) 8.18 (±1.8) 28.0 (±7.99)
7 0.11 (±0.04) 0.34 (±0.07) 0.59 (±0.09) 1.29 (±0.14) 0.15 (±0.05) 10.9 (±2.5) 33.2 (±12.2)
NCEP-DOE JRA-25 ERA-InterimTRMM 3B42 V6 CMORPH PERSIANN Ensemble
and the winner is…ensemble!!! But not a fair comparison!!!
Similar findings to other studies in different geographical domains (e.g. Ebert et al., 2007 BAMS)
Other sources of error Enhancement of metrics when
producing ensembles Importance of ground monitoring
networks, particularly were satellite/reanalysis algorithms need refinement and evaluation
More confidence in areas were ground monitoring is scarce
HS1 A276 poster Tuesday 24
Conclusion
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
EGU 2012 | Evaluation of reanalyses and satellite precipitation data
http://eos.csiro.au/
HS1 A276 poster
Thank youCSIRO Land and WaterJorge Luis Peña Arancibia
t +61 2 6246 5711e [email protected] www.csiro.au
CSIRO LAND AND WATER