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Evaluating the impact of bioenergy emission accounting methodology in energy system decarbonisation pathways to 2050 using a scenario approach: A case study of UK
Nagore Sabio, Paul DoddsUCL Energy Institute
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 2016University College Cork, 1-3 June 2016
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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ContextInternational and UK policy landscape• EU emission reduction targets
• EU RED targets
1990 2020 2030 2050
-20%-40%-80%-95%
20%27%
UKCCA, 2008
UKEnergy consumptionfrom renewables
15%
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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Role of bioenergy in the UK
• CCC bioenergy review 2011It will be difficult to meet the overall 2050 emissions target unless bioenergy can account for around 10% (200 TWh) of total UK primary energy (compared to the current 2%) and CCS is a feasible technology.
• 5th Carbon Budget 2015Sustainable bioenergy can play an important role. However, there are limits to the sustainable supply (e.g. this could provide around 10% of primary energy in 2050), so its role must be supplementary to other measures. Bioenergy should be allocated to options where it has the largest impact on reducing emissions.
• ETI ‘Delivering GHG emission savings through UK bioenergy value chains’Bioenergy could be deployed to deliver net negative emissions of around -55MtCO2eq/yrin 2050 and meet around 10% of UK energy demand (≈130 TWh/yr in 2050)
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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Motivation
• Bioenergy combined with CCS is a key vector in energysystem decarbonisation pathways
• Advantages
• Challenges
Economic à Low costTechnical à Easy to integrate in current
infrastructureEnvironmental à Potential for negative emissions
Land competition à Food, energy, non-marketsubsistence farming & biodiversity
Uncertain emissions à Direct emissions fromcombustion
à dLUC arising from changes in land management practiceassociated to prior use
à iLUC additional land use elsewhere when displaced agricultural activity
Bioenergyis not a single resource orprocess !!
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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Modelling bioenergy emissions à I – Resources
– Emissions from cultivation of food crops (CCC, 2011; RED/Biograce, E4Tech, Ecofys)
𝑅𝐸𝐷𝑆𝑐𝑜𝑝𝑒1𝑎𝑛𝑑2𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑦𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑖𝐿𝑈𝐶𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑏𝑖𝑜𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙𝑠𝐵𝐸𝐴𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐶𝐶𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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– Average indirect land use change estimates for biofuels
Modelling bioenergy emissions à II – Biofuels
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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UK Bioenergy strategy• BEAC model à Soil and Land biomass C stock changes
à Land emissionsà Different harvest periodsà Allows to investigate different GWP time
horizons: 20, 40, 100 years
àDoes not account for changes in average forest carbonstock
à Indirect impacts
Modelling bioenergy emissions à III – Forestry
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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UKTM – The UK TIMES Model• Overview
Integrated energy systems model - Least cost optimization - Partial equilibrium model - Technology rich - sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
• History & future of policy analysis: Successor to UK MARKAL- MARKAL’s strong policy heritage- UKTM has a strong future in policy: - DECC have undertaken UKTM as core tool
• New functionality of TIMES & UKTM- All GHG emissions; storage; flexibility; bioenergy chains- Linkages with European & global TIMES models- Assumptions explicit- QA protocol at the heart of development
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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Structure of model and sectors
Simplified Reference Energy System
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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Bioenergy resources UKTM (I)
Domestic
Woodyenergycrops
Arablecrop
Residues
Waste
1G
2G
3G Aquaticcrop
Oilcrop
• Sugarbeet• Wheat,
maize,potato• Rapeseed
• Poplar/willow• MiscanthusUKenergycrops
Stemwood
Sawmillco-product
Wastewood
Livestockmanure
Arboricultural arisings
ForestryresiduesTallow
Dryagriculturalresidue
Renewablefractionofwaste
Non-renewablefractionofwaste
Shortrotationforestry(SRC)
Sugarcrop
Starchcrop
UsedcokingoilFoodwaste
SewagesludgeLandfillgas
Macroalgae
Microalgae
• OnlyinAUB
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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Bioenergy resources UKTM (II)
International imports
International exports
Residues2G
Agriculturalresidues
1GBioethanol
WoodybiomassWoody
energycrops
Arablecrop1GCurrentoilcrops
Emergingoilcrops
Talloil
Commodities
BioethanolCommodities
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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Bioenergy processing technologies UKTM Domestic
Pelletization
Pre-treatment
Liquidbiofuel
Gas
Upgrade
Oilcroppyrolysis
• Notcleartheprocessesincluded:chipping,oilextraction,…?
• BiogasfromADhas4modes
Lowqualitypellets
Ethanolfromstarch
Ethanolfromsugar
Ethanolfromgrass
EthanolfromHQpellets
MethanolfromHQpellets
Biokerosene 2G
Highqualitypellets
Strawwastepretreatment
Woodwastepretreatment
BiogasfromADSyngasfrompellets
Biodiesel2GBiodiesel1G
BioLFOfrombioil upgrade
Biomethane fromsyngasupgrade • UpgraderouteforBioLFOneedsreview
• VerydifferentdetaillevelthanAUB/BVCM:difficultarmonization
Ethanolfromstrawwaste
Biooil frompyrolysisoil
Biogasfromlandfill
Biomethane frombiogasupgrade
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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Results: Bioenergy scenarios
Scenario ID Scenario Name Emissions description Resource availability Constraints
Scenario I Zero-Carbon Base Bioenergy emissions offset during biomass growth
CCC (2011) ‘Extended Land Use scenario assumptions
UK is constrained for a cumulative 80% emission reduction in 2050
Scenario II RED Scope 1,2 Life cycle bioenergy emissions, dLUC, CH4 and N2O.
Unlimited bioenergy resource availability.
UK is constrained for a cumulative 80% emission reduction in 2050.
Scenario III CCC iLUC + BEAC Scenario II + 1st generation iLUC + forestry carbon stock and land use (BEAC)
CCC (2011) iLUC factors for 1st generation bioethanol and biodiesel, and land biomass carbon stock change and land use emissions for forestry resource from Stephenson and McKay (2014) added.
Unlimited bioenergy resource availability.
UK is constrained for a cumulative 80% emission reduction in 2050.
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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Primary energy consumption
012345678910
PJTh
ousand
s
ScenarioI- ZeroCarbonBase*Extendedlanduseavailability
012345678910
PJTh
ousand
sUKTMScenarioII- REDScope1,2
Nuclear
Renewables
Oilandoilproducts
Liquidhydrogenimports
NaturalGas
Electricityimport
Coalandcoke
Biomassandbiofuels
012345678910
UKTMScenarioII- REDScope1,2*Unlimited bioenergy resource
012345678910
UKTMScenarioIII- CCCiLUC +BEaC*Unlimited bioenergy resource
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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CO2 emissions by sector
-200
0
200
400
600
MtC
O2
UKTMScenarioIII- CCCiLUC+BEaC
-200-100
0100200300400500600
MtC
O2
UKTMScenarioII- REDScope1,2Non-energyuse
Upstream
Processing
Hydrogen
Transport
Residential
Industry
Electricity
Services
Agriculture&LandUseTotalnetemissions
Total(excludingCCS)
-1000
100200300400500600
MtC
O2
ScenarioI- ZeroCarbonBase
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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Carbon prices
-255075100125150175200225250
Carbonprice[£/tCO2eq]
ScenarioIII- CCCiLUC+BEaC
ScenarioII- REDScope1,2
ScenarioI- ZeroCarbonBase
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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Bioenergy mix
0
400
800
1200
1600
Zero-Carbo
n
CCCiLU
C+BE
aC RED
Zero-Carbo
n
CCCiLU
C+BE
aC RED
Zero-Carbo
n
CCCiLU
C+BE
aC RED
2015 2030 2050
UKBioresourceimportmix
Forestryresourcesandresidues Foodandfoddercrops Energycrops Waste
0
200
400
600
Zero-Carbo
n
CCCiLU
C+BE
aC RED
Zero-Carbo
n
CCCiLU
C+BE
aC RED
Zero-Carbo
n
CCCiLU
C+BE
aC RED
2015 2030 2050
UKDomesticBioresourcemix
Forestryresourcesandresidues Foodandfoddercrops Energycrops Waste
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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Conclusions
Lessons learnt & next steps
ü The model has not many other ‘cheap’ options to decarbonise the energy systemand maximises the use of the available bioenergy resource
ü The inclusion of indirect impacts shifts the bioenergy mix towards the use of more sustainable resources (i.e., agricultural and forestry residues, waste), but these needto be evaluated carefully
ü The real costs of indirect impacts are reflected in higher carbon pricesü The modelling of indirect impacts decouples Bioenergy & CCS, providing a more
wholistically optimal energy systemü Biofuel availability is key for the decarbonisation of the transport sector.
ü Need to harmonize process and resources boundaries with available datasetsü Need to balance other resource use impacts and limitations (i.e., waste processing
emissions, agricultural and forestry residues usage analysis, etc)ü Disaggregate further bioenergy classification for imports to account for geographical
variationsü Incorporate carbon stock dynamics into emission projections
Evaluating the impact of bioenergy emission accounting methodology in energy system decarbonisation pathways to 2050 using a scenario approach: A case study of UK
Nagore Sabio
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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Corine Land Cover 2012
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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UKTM Bioenergy technology routes
Existing• Pretreatments• Biodiesel production• Bioethanol production• Biogas production (landfill)
New• Fermentation to ethanol• Hydrolysis to ethanol• Fermentation to methanol• Hydrogenation and production of 1st generation biodiesel• Gasification and FT 2nd generation biodiesel and biokerosene• Gasification to biomethane• Pellet pyrolysis to biooil• AD to biogas
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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UKTM bioenergy products and market demands
• Bioenergy is consumed in the following sectors– Electricity– Processing– Services– Transport – Domestic – Industrial– Agriculture*
• In the form of– Food, Power, Fuel (biofuels or hydrogen), heat.
• Further whole system analysis…
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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Bioenergy mix
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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Notes introduction (I)
• Socio-economic impacts• Environmental impacts• Water-energy nexus opportunities for biomass:• asdadf
International Energy Workshop (IEW) 20161-3 JUNE 2016, University College Cork (UCC), CORK, IRELAND
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