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Evaluating the added value in regional climate modelsimulations of extreme temperatures in India
Kamal Kumar Murari
Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies
Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India)
US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience
Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India)
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 1 / 19
March 7, 2017
Outline1 Background2 Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectors
Impact of extreme temperatures in peak electricity demand in PuneImpact of extreme temperature on wheat yields: conceptualframeworkImpact of extreme temperature on wheat yields in IGP regionRegional model’s simulation of extreme temperature in IGP regionExposure of extreme temperature on plot level yieldsThe relationship of heat wave and mortality and projection of heatwave characteristics in India
3 The added value of RCMs and issuesFramework for assessing the added value of CORDEX-RCMs toaddress added valueEvaluating the added value of CORDEX-RCMs extreme temperaturesSimulation of characteristics of severe heat waves in India
4 Issues for evaluation of added value of CORDEX RCMs5 Conclusions
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 2 / 19
Background
Background
Precipitation and temperature are the most important variables forimpact studies.
Quality controlled data of these variables to an appropriatelydis-aggregated scale is the need of the end-users, which is reallydifficult to get in Indian context.
One of the major objective of end-users is to address the likely impactof climate variability and climate extremes, at a localized scale, usingobserved data or projected climate data under different scenarios.
There has been more focus on precipitation downscaling (both meanand extreme states) and less focus on other variables. Particularlytemperature extreme which has been found to be an importantvariable to suggest impact in human systems.
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 3 / 19
Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectorsImpact of extreme temperatures in peak electricity demand in
Pune
Impact of extreme temperatures in peak electricity demandin Pune
−1 0 1 2 3 4
02
46
Quantiles of Model values
−1 0 1 2 3 4
−2
02
4
−1 0 1 2 3 4
−2
02
4Q
uant
iles
of O
bser
ved
valu
es
Quantiles of Model values Quantiles of Model values
Qua
ntile
s of
Obs
erve
d va
lues
Qua
ntile
s of
Obs
erve
d va
lues
Shivaji Nagar Kothrud Pimpri
Daily temperature variability and relative humidity are useful data toaddress temperature-electricity relationship
Contributors: Ayush Maheshwari, Aniket Navalkar, Dr. T Jayaraman
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 4 / 19
Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectorsImpact of extreme temperature on wheat yields: conceptual
framework
Impact of extreme temperature on wheat yields:conceptual framework
Exposure to extreme temperatures during reproductive period mightinfluence the crop yield and production.
Source: Teixeira et al., 2013
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 5 / 19
Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectors Impact of extreme temperature on wheat yields in IGP region
Impact of extreme temperature on wheat yields
Simulation of daily temperature values are useful to assess exposure toGDDs and EDDs.Contributors: Sandeep Mahato and Dr. T Jayaraman
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 6 / 19
Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectors Regional model’s simulation of extreme temperature in IGP region
Regional model’s simulation of extreme temperature inIGP region
RCMs show a large uncertainty in simulating area exposed to criticaltemperature of wheat
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 7 / 19
Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectors Exposure of extreme temperature on plot level yields
Exposure of extreme temperature on plot level yields
Observed Vs Simulated Wheat Yield (Papda, Raisen 2009-10 to 2013-14)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Yiel
d (
in K
g)
Plot ID
2010 (R square : 0.70)
Observed Yield Simulated Yield
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
08
A
08
B
30
AA
30
AB
30
BA
31
A
32
A
35
A
37
AA
37
AB
A
39
AB
A
40
AA
41
A
41
B
41
CB
42
A
42
BA
43
AA
43
BA
44
AA
A
46
BB
47
AA
48
AA
50
BB
51
AA
A
51
AB
51
DA
52
G
53
A
53
BA
55
B
57
A
57
C
57
DB
57
EB 57
F
57
GA
57
GB
A
58
AA
B
58
B
58
C
58
D
Yiel
d (
Kg/
Ha)
Plot ID
2011 (R square : 0.72)
Observed Yield Simulated Yield
Temporal simulation of daily temperature records are useful to estimateGDDs and EDDs, which are useful to estimate plot-wise exposure toextreme temperatures.
Contributors: Himanshu Pathak and Dr. T Jayaraman
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 8 / 19
Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectorsThe relationship of heat wave and mortality and projection of heat
wave characteristics in India
The relationship of heat wave and mortality
Source: Murari et al., 2015
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 9 / 19
Studies on impact of extreme temperature on different sectors
Projection of heat wave characteristics in India
Source: Murari et al., 2015
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 10 / 19
The added value of RCMs and issues
Projections from Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
RCMs has scale related added value for providing simulation of keyclimatic variables.
However, it is not clear whether this added value also reflects insimulation of intensity, magnitude, duration and frequencycharacteristics of key climatic variables.
In addition, there are limited studies that attempts to assess theadded value of RCMs to better represent climatic processes andphenomena that explains occurrence of extremes.
However, the ability of RCMs to provide a realistic simulation ofclimatic features is well debated in the literature and it is not clear ifRCMs have better skills than GCMs, particularly for simulation ofboth temperature and precipitations extremes (Racherla et al., 2012;Glotter et al., 2014; Laprise et al., 2014).
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 11 / 19
The added value of RCMs and issuesFramework for assessing the added value of CORDEX-RCMs to
address added value
Framework for assessing the added value ofCORDEX-RCMs
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 12 / 19
The added value of RCMs and issuesEvaluating the added value of CORDEX-RCMs extreme
temperatures
Simulation of leading mode of EOF of daily temperaturedata
Contributors: Dr. Subimal Ghosh and Dr. Edoardo Daly
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 13 / 19
The added value of RCMs and issuesEvaluating the added value of CORDEX-RCMs extreme
temperatures
Simulation of second leading mode of EOF of dailytemperature data
Contributors: Dr. Subimal Ghosh and Dr. Edoardo Daly
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 14 / 19
The added value of RCMs and issues
The relationship of SST variability of Indian ocean region
Contributors: Dr. Subimal Ghosh and Dr. Edoardo Daly
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 15 / 19
The added value of RCMs and issues Simulation of characteristics of severe heat waves in India
Impact of extreme temperature on wheat yields
Contributors: Dr. Subimal Ghosh and Dr. Edoardo Daly
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 16 / 19
Issues for evaluation of added value of CORDEX RCMs
Issues for evaluation of added value of CORDEX RCMs
Unavailability of appropriate framework for evaluation added value ofRCMs.
There is no framework that can address the separation good RCMand not good RCM (or weighting RCMs based on performance inrelation to observed data) from a set of ensembles
It is not yet clear whether RCMs has added value than statisticaldownscaled product obtained from driving GCMs
RCMs has a similar magnitude of bias as of their driving GCMs.There are plenty of bias correction approached. For users it is notclear which bias correction method should be used.
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 17 / 19
Conclusions
Conclusions
Temperature extreme is one climatic information that is well evidentto relate with the impact on electricity demand, crop yield (both atmacro and micro scale)
Impact assessment studies emphasized the need of daily scaleinformation along with spatial detail for better applicability ofapproaches.
There is no framework available that guides users to evaluate RCMsor assess the added value of RCMs.
In our study of assessment of added value of CORDEX-RCMs we findboth GCMs and RCMs has similar skill to simulate heat wavecharacteristics of north India.
Our study suggest CRODEX-RCMs adds values for simulation of heatwave characteristics of South India. It provides better physicalexplanation of occurrence of extreme temperature conditions in SouthIndia.
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 18 / 19
Acknowledgments
Prof. T. Jayaraman: TISS, Mumbai
Mr. Ayush Maheshwari: IIT Bombay
Mr. Sandeep Mahato: TISS, Mumbai
Mr. Himanshu Pathak: TISS, Mumbai
Dr. Subimal Ghosh: IIT Bombay
Dr. Edoardo Daly: Monash University, Australia
Thanks
Email: [email protected]
Kamal Kumar Murari Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai (India) (US-India Partnership for Climate Resilience Workshop for development and applications of downscaling climate projections Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India))Evaluating the added value in regional climate model simulations of extreme temperatures in IndiaMarch 6, 2017 19 / 19