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Evaluating risks and opportunities while protecting Florida’s environment
USGS Florida Activities Related to Climate Change, Energy Resources,
And New Technologies
Robert A. RenkenAssociate Director for Hydrologic StudiesU.S. Geological SurveyFort Lauderdale Office
Overwhelming Scientific Consensus
The National Academy of Sciences (2005) “The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear…(we urge) prompt action to reduce the causes of climate change.”
National Security and the Threat of Climate Change--CNA Corp (2007) for Dept of Defense“The nature and pace of climate change are grave and pose grave implications for U.S. national security.”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (90%) … “unequivocally” due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”
U. S. Climate Change Science Program, SAP 4.1 (2009)“Climate warming will raise sea levels and potentially increase storms, resulting inincreased erosion, wetland loss, salt water intrusion. Actions and plans are neededat national and state levels for adaptation to future climate conditions.”
Past 10,000 Years
Greenhouse gases
Atmospheric change in the past 100 years: Global mean temperature increase:
0.74 degrees C over past 100 yrs. 0.65 degrees C over past 5 years
1850
2000
The changing landscape factor
Climate change in the Southeastern USWhat can we expect?
• Increased air and water temperatures will create stress for humans, plants and animals
• Decreased water availability
• Increased coastal storm intensity, storm surge, and long-term sea level rise
• Ecological thresholds will be crossed – major disruptions to ecosystems
US Climate Research ProgramSAP 4.1, 2009
Source: NOAA National Climate Data Center
Southeastern US Precipitation Trends
Historic Eustatic Sea-Level RiseSea level measurements from 23 long tide gauge records in geologically stable
environments show a rise of around 20 centimeters per century (2 mm/year). Source: IPCC 2001
Modified from IPCC 2007 report
Increasing Range in Sea-Level Rise
Projections Since 2007
2007 IPCC Sea Level Rise Median Projection
Se
a l
eve
l c
han
ge
(in
ch
es
)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
> 6 meters (21 feet)
Effects of increased sea-level rise and storm intensity
Loss of coastal habitats and resources Increased coastal erosion Loss of recreation resources (beaches,
marshes) Saltwater intrusion into aquifers, water wells,
septic systems Elevated storm-surge flooding levels Greater, more frequent coastal inundation Increased risk to people and infrastructure
Gre
ater
pot
entia
l im
pact
(Thieler, E.R., and Hammar-Klose, E.S., 1999, 2000)
North Captiva Island
Sept 2001 August 2004
SEA LEVEL RISE: POTENTIAL FOR INNUNDATION AND EROSION
Retreat from low-lying coastlines
In some coastal areas retreat may be the most cost effective option.
“Protect, Accommodate, Retreat”(IPCC response strategies for accelerated sea level rise)
• Florida’s energy infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and storm impacts….
• The interdependencies of fuel, transportation and electrical generation
and distribution were found to be major issues in Florida’s recovery from recent major hurricanes.
\
Bull et al., 2007, US. Climate Science Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.5
Stationarity is dead – the future will not look like the past
Model-Projected Changes in Annual Runoff, 2041-2060
(Paul Milly et al., 2005)
Total water withdrawals in Florida by major category, 2005
12 BGD water used forpower generation
Florida Power Industry
Total water withdrawn and consumed in Florida by category, 2005 (billion gallons per day)
Total water withdrawn and gross power generated in Florida, 1970-2005
Sea level rise and saltwater intrusion
Hydrologic models to assess climate changeData Collection
Prediction &uncertainty
Conceptualization, simulation & sensitivity
Saltwater Intrusion Sensitivity Analysis
• Historic SLR affected saltwater intrusion• Withdrawals had a greater impact• Sum of multiple forcings greater than
individual forcings
1850 1994
Zygnerski and Langevin, 2008
. GCM SPATIAL DOWNSALING
Hindcasting and Forecasting Climate Impacts on Coastal Habitats and Species in the Everglades
Integrated Modeling Approach:• Enhance existing hydrology model
to hindcast SLR and historic vegetation change
• Add hurricane disturbance • Assess habitat suitability• Add NARCCAP AOCGM
climate predictions• Add Land use/land change• Three scenarios (1900, 2010, 2050,
greenhouse gas, temp & precip impacts)
• Develop predictive capability for SLR under restoration and management scenarios
SALTWATER INTRUSION -- 2 FT SEA LEVEL RISE
100
75
50
25
0
Time inundated (%)2 FT SLRExisting sea level
Innundation and increased surface water salinity
Simulated two foot increase in sea level
Carbon sequestration:
Deliberate effort to decrease the net flux of CO2 to the atmosphere by sequestering it from the atmosphere to
the land and oceans
• Geologic Sequestration• Terrestrial /biologic sequestration
Geologic sequestration
Geologic sequestration
http://energy.er.usgs.gov/health_environment/co2_sequestration/
• Digital database of borehole geophysical log data
• Map the regional extent of saline aquifer systems
• Delineate salinity variations at key well sites and along section lines and depict fresh and saltwater interfaces
Saline Water Aquifer Mapping Project in the Southeastern United States
Groundwater Resources Program
Biological carbon sequestration
Evapotranspiration & Carbon Network
Urban station (with UCF Biology Department)
A L A B A M A
G E O R G I A
ET & CO2
ET
USGS/UCF Urban Carbon Project• Characterize carbon and water flux in an urban landscape• Relate the carbon/water flux to landcover• Develop models for optimizing carbon uptake and water
conservation
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24355
360
365
370
375
380
385
390
395
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Example Data for Average atmospheric CO2 concentra-tions
(Oct. 4 - Nov. 6, 2008)EastWestTraffic
Time of day (h)
CO2
conc
entr
ation
(ppm
)
Traffi
c vo
lum
e (v
ehic
le/h
r.)
Carbon sequestration through restoration of former wetlands (IPCC, 2007)
Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan
QUESTIONS ?
Global Carbon Cycle and Carbon Sequestration
Sundquist et al., 2008