Upload
doannhu
View
213
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016
1
Evaluating andCommunicating Natural Hazard Risks
New Zealand Case StudyPeter Higgs President IPWEA NZCivil Defence Group Controller
APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016
2
Pacific Ring of Fire
APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016
3
Christchurch City February 2011
• Vertical accelerations > 2g• Energy = 5 Hiroshima bombs• 1 in 2500 year event
APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016
4
Volcanoes
Ngaruahoe 1995
Auckland – the largest City
Cylone Bola Gisborne 1988
APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016
5
Tsunami(near and far)
Turihaua(Gisborne) 1947
Chile 2015
Coastal Erosion, and Inundation and Storms
APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016
6
Land Slips
Snow
Drought
2013 (Not for 70 years)
Climate Change
APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016
7
Resilience – Bounce back but stronger – An Integrated Approach
Uncertain future Be agile and adaptive Sea Level Rise – design for it now, but side effects – flood frequency,
groundwater level, salt water intrusion Smarter designs – repairable, components, redundancy Sharing data, communities, across agencies We are now so well connected – what if connections fail? We have smart infrastructure – what if power, internet fails… Integrating “engineered” with natural processes Financial Risk Planning – integrated with Asset Management If all else fails – what is our plan?
He tangata, he tangata, he tangata - It is the people - community
Building Resilience =De-Risking Strategy
From the Cost of Risk
To theGUARANTEE OFPERFORMANCE
• Investment in development has been about business opportunities• Not about Managing Risks
• Even Climate Change Adaptation Plans driven by “pay back period”• Not by delivering on safer communities
• Near Term vs Long Term – e.g. political election cycle
• Not just focus on the “assets” – the service they deliver
• Develop the risk mitigations – through hazard identification, assessment, preparedness, response, financial planning and recovery - immediate and long term
• Focus on Community aims/aspirations to deliver GUARANTEE OF PERFORMANCE
“The Sea Change”
APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016
8
APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016
9
APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016
10
APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016
11
Training in Schools, businesses
National Training Exercise
CD Websites
Apps
Council Websites – One “Version of the Truth”
Media
Near and Far Threats
Self Evacuation• If you feel a Large Earthquake• Or longer than a minute• Move To beyond the Tsunami zone
APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016
12
• Local Community Groups
• Neighbourhood Support Groups
• National
• Regional
• District
APWA 2016 PWX 23/08/2016
13
NATIONAL EXERCISE
31 August14 September28 September
• SO WHAT ARE WE DOING IN NZ? - A NEW STRATEGIC APPROACH
• Incorporating all risks into investment decision making – Guarantee of Performance – not just Managing the Cost of Risk or Disaster Response
• Asset Management and Financial Planning focus on risk, criticality, vulnerability
• Town Planning – long term
• Agility
• Community responsibility/ownership – Be prepared
• Community resilience – their aspirations driving performance