European Parliament elections at 1st glance

European Parliament elections at 1st glance

ContentsSocialist Social Democrat Centre Left

Christian Democrat Centre-right

Liberal Centrist

Conservative right-wing (further right than the EPP)

Green Centre left to leftist

Communist Far left

Populist-Eurosceptic-nationalist

Socialist Social Democrat Centre Left

Ideology Select key priorities affecting business Projection for 2019 (in % and number of seats)

Socialist Social-Democrat Centre-Left

Economic policies– Bigger EU budget

– Strongerfinancialregulationforbanks

Digital policies– Createlong-terminvestmentplantopreparefordigital

revolution and AI

– Fightfakenews

Climate/environment policies– Createlong-terminvestmentplantoprepareforgreen

transition

– Adopt a sustainable development pact and a just transition fund

– EUtoleadinrenewablesandbecomeclimate-neutralby2050

– NewtaxonCO2emissions

– Planforaffordablehousingandcleanpublictransport

– Reformofagriculturalpolicy

Social policies– Nojobwithoutacontract

– Nojobwithoutafairsalary

– Banonzero-hourscontractsandfakeself-employment

Tax policies– CommonEuropeanapproachtoensureaproperlevelofeffectivetaxationandstopdownwardcorporatetaxcompetition

Corporate governance policies– Protectwhistleblowers

Competition policies– Notinthemanifesto,buttheSpitzenkandidatsaidontherecordthatitiswrongtocallforachangeofthecompetitionrulesfollowingtheblockedSiemens-Alstommerger

– Weneed‘anotherindustrialpolicy’itis‘completelywrong’touseSiemens-Alstomasanexampleofwhythisisneeded,he said

Trade policies– Againnotinmanifesto,buttheSpitzenkandidatisinfavourofinternationaltradeandconcludingfree-tradeagreements(FTAs)

– BelievestheFTAsnegotiatedbytheCommissionwouldneedtobebetterexplainedtovotersandmoretransparent,becauseEUcitizensfearinternationaltradewill‘underminetheirjobs,socialandenvironmentalstandardsandconflictswouldnotbedealtwithbyjudges’

– Infavourofa‘democratization’ofthetraderules:iethattheCommissionwouldneedtoasktheEuropeanParliament(andnotonlytheCouncil)foramandate

– InfavourofopeningtradenegotiationswiththeUS(unlikesome Socialist MEPs in parliament)

– InfavourofmaintainingWTOrulesandmultilateralism

– T he challenge is that trade policies should not go against EU social and environmental standards

20.1%

142 seats

2014 results (if the UK leaves the EU, then the number of seats will fall to 705 from 751)25.43%

191 seats

Our expectation: what does it mean in practice for businessWith the Socialists expectedtoloseasignificantnumberofvotes,MEPsfromthisgrouparelikelytokeeppushingforinitiatives popular to their votingbase,especiallyinrelationto:

– betterprotectionofsocialrightsofworkers;

– overhaulofthecorporatetaxationrulestoensure‘fairandtransparent’taxationofmultinationals;

– focusonstringentenvironmental and energypoliciestofightclimatechange;and

– strongfinancialregulation.

Party/groupPartyofEuropeanSocialists (S&D)

Spitzenkandidat (if applicable)

Frans Timmermans (Dutch)

Christian Democrat Centre-right


Christian-Democrat Centre-right

Economic policies– EnforceEUeconomicrulesonmemberstates’publicfinances

– StrengthenEuropeantoolstocombateconomicshocksincludingbyturningtheEuropeanStabilityMechanismintoaEuropeanMonetaryFundandsettinguptheEuropeanDepositInsuranceScheme

– Deepen Eurozone integration

Digital policies– IncreaseinvestmentinAIandfosterhuman-centredinnovations(wherepeoplecomefirst)

– ModerniseEUlegislationtoensurefitnessfor technological changes

– Create a true European Innovation Union to remain competitive at the global level

– Ensureallregionsbenefitfromdigitalinfrastructure and education

– Protectprivacytoenhanceonlinetrust

Climate/environment policies– EffectivepriceonCO2withawell-functioningemissionstradingsystemandincentiviseemissionreductionsinEUindustriesandtheenergysector

– Enable investments and innovation in all technological solutions tolow-carbonmobility

– SafeguardsupplyofenergytoEuropeataffordableprices

– ModernisetheCommonAgriculturalPolicy

– Defendstandardsforagriculture,fisheriesandfoodquality

– Protecthealthagainstlower-qualityimports

Social policies– Equalopportunitiesforwomeninthelabourmarketthroughequalpayforequalworkandgreaterchoiceonbalancingworkand caring responsibilities

– Helpforthosewholosejobsthroughdigitisation andglobalisationbyincreasingtheEuropeanFund forTransition

– Improvetradedefenceandsystematicforeigninvestmentscreeningtoprotectworkersfromanti-dumping,delocalisationandtechnologysell-out

Tax policies– IntroduceaDigitalFairTax

– WorkforanOECD-levelsolutionforfightingtaxevasionandeliminatingtaxhavens

Corporate governance policies– Notinmanifesto

Competition policies– Forward-lookingEuropeanindustrialandcompetitionpolicytoallowglobalchampionstobebuiltinEurope,andtochallengecompetitorslikeChinaandtheUSwhiledefendingstrategicallyimportantEuropeansectorsagainstunfairpractices

– NotinmanifestobuttheSpitzenkandidatsaidontherecordthatweneedtothinkaboutapotentialvetomechanismondeals(notto the Council though)

– Proposenewlegislationonmergersforthenext fiveyears

Trade policies– Negotiatenewandadditionalfreeandfair-tradeagreements,alongsideongoingtalkswithMercosur,AustraliaandNewZealand,includingwiththeUS(withoutloweringstandards)

– CloserelationshipwiththeUKpost-BrexitwhilemaintainingintegrityoftheEU

– Qualifiedmajorityvotingtobeadoptedforforeignpolicy

Functioning of EU institutions– Give the European Parliament the right to initiate legislation

– Improvenationalandregionalparliaments’involvementinlaw-makingandoversight

26.7%

188 seats


221 seats

Our expectation: what does it mean in practice for businessWhiletheEPPwillbethebiggestparty,itmaynotbeable to push its agenda throughwithoutcomingcloser to the centre ground oraligningwiththefartherright.

Duringthenextmandate,wecanexpecttheEPPtopushstronglyfor:

– commencementoffulltradenegotiationswiththeUS;

– competition rules to be updatedtofacilitatethebuildingofEuropeanchampions;and

– aEuropeanMonetaryFund.

Party/groupEuropeanPeople’sParty(EPP)


ManfredWeber (Germany)

Liberal Centrist


Liberal Centrist

Party/groupAllianceofLiberalsandDemocratsfor Europe (ALDE)

Economic policies– SupportSMEs,‘thebackboneofprosperityinEurope’

– Createjobsthrougheasieraccesstofinance,simplerrules forinvestmentfunds

– Encourageknowledgeandtechnologytransferfromuniversitiesand research institutes

– ManageEUfundseffectivelytoensuretheEUbudgetdeliversonissues that matter to citizens

– Develop loans/guarantees to mobilise private capital and incentivise innovation

– ContinuetoreconstructtheEconomicandMonetary Union (EMU)

– RapidimplementationofaBankingUnionintheEurozone,basedonstrengtheningtheresponsibilityofownersandcreditors

– ReformtheEuropeanStabilityMechanismintoaEuropeanMonetaryFund

– Stableframeworkforsustainableinvestmentsandfinance

Digital policies– Invest in research and innovation

– Reachthetargetof3%ofEUGDPinvestedinresearchanddevelopmentby2020

– Enableself-drivingvehicles

– Buildafully-functioningDigitalSingleMarket

– Abolishgeoblocking

– Harmonise data protection policies

– EnsurefreeaccesstoinformationwhileguaranteeingIP rights

– Createalegalframeworkforblockchain,artificialintelligenceandotherswithoutstiflinginnovation

– Developdefensesagainsthybridactivities:disinformationcampaigns,cyberespionage,cyber-attacksandcrime

– DevelopasecuredigitalidentityforEuropeanstobeabletologinandsigndocumentssafely

– Digitise all public services

Climate/environment policies– TheEU’sbudgettoonlysupportprogrammesinlinewiththeEU’sclimateandenergyobjectives

– Ensuretransitiontoaresource-efficientcirculareconomy

– FollowtheParisAgreementtoavoidcostlylock-instohigh-carbon investments

– EUtotakegloballeadershipinsettingambitiousinternational targets

– CompletetheEnergyUnion

– MovetofosterR&Dinlowemissiontechnologies,infrastructure,cleanenergyproduction,energyefficiencyandareductionofindustryandtransportemissionsincluding aviation and shipping

– StrengthentheEUEmissionsTradingSystem-wherepossibleextenditsscopee.g.transport

– By2050theEUtobeacarbonneutraleconomywithitsenergysystemfullybasedonrenewableenergy:completethesingleEuropeanenergymarketwithfreeflowsofrenewableenergynow

– Reducegreenhousegasemissionsby55%by2030comparedto 1990 levels

– Pushformorezero-emissionvehiclesanddecarbonisationofall transport modes

10.21%

72 seats


67 seats

Our expectation: what does it mean in practice for businessOverall,ALDEisexpectedtoretaintheroleof‘kingmaker’–canmakeavote go in one direction or another.

ALDEfocusesonitstraditional liberal and pro-European stances in favouroffreemarkets,open competition and trade. It also has a strong focusondigitalissuessuchasblockchainandAI.Theseissuesareexpectedtoremain high on the politicalagendathankstoALDE impetus.

Spitzenkandidat (if applicable)NoSpitzenkandidatappointedbut a team ofsevenseniorEUfiguresforming ‘TeamEurope’.Theyaredescribedas‘agroupofsevenpassionate leaders as diverse asEuropeitself,readytorenewEuropeandleadtheALDEelectoralcampaign’.

SomearealsorunningforMEP in their member state.

Nicola Beer (Germany)

Emma Bonino (Italy)


Social policies– “AEuropethatrenewsitspromiseofastrongsocialcontractforacompetitiveeconomy”

– StrengthenourknowledgeeconomybyinvestinginresearchandinnovationandequippingEUworkforcewiththerightsetofskillsforthe21stcentury

Tax policies– Notinmanifesto

Corporate governance policies– Notinmanifesto

Competition policies– Encourage competition among companies in the digital

space

– Preventdevelopmentofmonopoliesinthedigitalspace

– Ensure competition to develop innovative services

Trade policies– EU to set global standards in international trade and promotefreeandrules-basedtrade

– Pushformodernandprogressivefreetradeagreements-contenttobeexplainedinclearlanguagetothepublic

– Support the European Commission negotiate more trade deals–futureagreementsshouldpreservehumandignityandhumanworkingconditions,sustainabilityandanti-corruption

EU institutions functioning– EUtoencouragedecentralisationanddiversity,notburdensomebureaucracyandover-regulation

– MoretransparentandefficientEUinstitutions

– EuropeanParliamenttoonlyhaveoneseatinBrussels

– Give the European Parliament the right to initiate legislation

– EnsuremoretransparencyofnegotiationsandvotingwithintheCouncil

– BetterpromotethepositiveimpactofEUpoliciesandco-operationonthelivesofcitizens

Violeta Bulc (Slovenia)

KatalinCseh (Hungary)

Luis Garicano (Spain)

GuyVerhofstadt (Belgium)

Margrethe Vestager (Denmark)




Party/groupEuropean Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR)


Economic policies

– NofurtherintegrationoftheEurozone

Digital policies– Notinmanifesto

Climate/environment policies– Protectionofwildlifeandendangeredanimals

– LoweringemissionsthroughtheETS

– Balancebetweenensuringaprosperousfishingsector,meetingthedemandsofconsumersandensuringsustainability

– Diversificationofenergysupply,particularlyawayfromRussia,andoppositiontoNordstreamII

Social policies– Notinmanifesto

Tax policies– TaxcompetitionisoneofthesourcesofEuropeanprosperityandshouldremainamemberstatecompetency

Corporate governance policies

– Protectingwhistleblowers

Competition policies– Againstreformofcompetitionpolicytofacilitate

European champions

Trade policies– Pro-trade

– SupportiveofopeningEUmarkettonon-EUproductsinalimitedandcontrolledway,whilstensuringEUproductshaveimprovedaccesstonon-EUmarkets

– BelievesEUshouldretaliateagainstUStariffs

Functioning of the EU institutions– GeneralreviewoftheEUinstitutionsandagencies,aswellasafreezeonnewproposals,asidefromthoseagreedunanimouslybythecouncil

– Oppositionforincreaseduseofqualified majorityvoting

– Infavourof‘multi-speed’EU

7.5 %

53 seats


70 seats

Our expectation: what does it mean in practice for businessCurrent polling suggests the ECRwillfallfrombeingthethirdlargestpartytothefifth,withtheGreensandfar-leftonlyafewseatsbehind.TheeventuallossoftheUKConservativePartynotonlywillaffecttheECRnumberofseatsbutalsotheiragendaandthewaybusinessesinteractwiththem.TheyareexpectedtomaintaintheUKConservativeMEPs’pro-businessstance(fightingforde-regulation)but,depending on the parliamentaryarithmetic,wemightseetheECRshiftfurthertotherightandalignwithpopulistpartiestooppose:

– economic,fiscalandpoliticalintegration;

– institutionalreform;and

– reformofcompetitionlawtofacilitatethebuildingofEuropean champions.

Jan Zahradil (Czech Republic)

Green Centre-left to leftist


Green Centre-left to leftist

Party/group

EuropeanGreenParty/Green-European Free Alliance

Spitzenkandidat(ifapplicable)

Economic policies– Investinajustgreeneconomy,researchandinnovation

– Promotegreenmanufacturingandfinancewithoutgreenwashing

– Developadequateinfrastructure:emphasistobeputonresearchand eco-innovation

– Europetomoveawayfromfossilfuelsbypullingprivateandpublicfundsfromfossilinvestments

Digital policies– CreateaneffectiveandindependentEUauthoritytosupervisethedigitalsectortocontrolandlimitthemarketpowerofbigcorporations

Climate/environment policies– Phaseoutcoalby2030andotherfossilfuelssoonthereafter

– Phaseoutnuclearenergy

– Promoteenergyefficiency

– Moveto100%renewables

– Promoteajusttransitiontoacarbon-neutralcirculareconomythroughaGreenNewDeal

– Cutemissionsfastenoughtoreachthe1.5Climitbypromotingajusttransitiontowardsanet-zero- emissionseconomy

– DevelopanEUcarbonbudgetandastrongcarbonfloorprice

– Developsustainablealternativestoplasticandincreaserecyclingtargets

– Createanewenvironmentalactionprogramme

– Ban the most poisonous pesticides as soon as possible

– LinkEUagriculturalpolicysupporttoenvironmentalandclimateprotection(safeguardwater,investinanimalwelfare,protectbiodiversityandrefrainfromusingGMOs)

Social policies– Createsustainablejobsinregionsaffectedbythephasingoutoffossilenergy

– Fight social dumping

– Securefairpay,unionrightsanddecent workingconditions

– Adoptaminimumincomedirective,respectingnationalsocialsecuritysystems

– Developfairlypaidsickleaveandfairparentalleaveinallcountries

– Pilotuniversalbasicincomeandworking-timereductionschemes

– Guaranteesocialprotectionforyoungpeoplethroughminimumincome,andbasicincomepilots

Tax policies– Fairtaxationofairtravel

– Non-recyclableplasticstobetaxedorbanned

– Developtaxregimesthatdonotbenefitlargemultinationalsandwealthyindividuals

– Continuetocrackdownontaxhavens,taxevasion,taxavoidanceandmoneylaundering

– IntroduceanEUdigitaltax

– Againstunfairtaxcompetitionbetween member states

Corporate governance policies– Ensureprotectionofactivists,journalistsandwhistle-blowers

Competition policies– NotinmanifestobuttheSpitzenkandidatBasEickhoutisagainstgivingindividualmemberstatesthepowertooverruleaCommissiondecisionbecause‘that’stheendoftheinternalmarketandcompetitionrules’

– Thereshouldbe‘moreroomforpoliticalcontextaroundglobalcompetition’incompetitionpoliciesbutitshouldremain‘inthehandsoftheCommission’

– ‘Importanttobasecompetitiononstrictrulesbutcan’thurttohaveabitmoreflexibility[…]whenthereisapoliticaljudgementtobemadeatacertainmoment’

Trade policies– NotinmanifestobutEickhoutbelievesthat‘tradeisameanstoachievesomething,notatargetonitsown’

– Trade agreements must not undermine environmental and social progress

– ReadytoimposetariffsagainsttheUSifneeded

– SDGshouldbeatthecoreoftradepolicy

Functioning of the EU institutions– EnsuremoreEUinstitutionaltransparency

– Imposetransparencyoflobbyingactivities

– EuropeanParliamentshouldbeabletoremoveunderperformingCommissioners

6.9%

52 seats


50 seats

Our expectation: what does it mean in practice for businessTheGreensarefocusedonthefightagainstclimatechange. As a result the promotionofbiodiversityandcleanenergywillbeatthecoreofthenextmandateoftheEuropeanParliament and Commission. Compromises willhavetobefoundanditremainstobeseenhowcoalitionswouldbeformed,buttheGreens’long-standing proposals on these issues cannot be ignored.

BasEickhout(Netherlands)

SkaKeller (Germany)

Communist Far left


Communist Far left

Party/group


Economic policies– ChangetheECB’smissiontoincludeemployment goalsandoverrideitsautonomyinfavouroftrue democraticaccountability

– Abolishthefiscalandgrowthpact

– Endausterity

Prioritise a social public investment programme– Mimictheformsofeconomicandsocialalternativesthatemergedfromtheexperiencesofsocialco-operativesandtheself-managementofrecoveredfactories

– Stopthedevelopmentofatwo-speedEurope–‘weworkforallcountriesinEuropetodevelopinaco-operativeway’

– UseEUbudgetforsolidarityandredistributionthrough ‘thedemocraticcontroloffinancialmarketsandthepublic,democraticownershipofbanks’

– SetoutaEuropeanconferenceonpublicdebttofinaliseandputinplacestructuralandlong-termsolutionsforitsrestructuringandreduction

Digital policies– Equalrightsofaccesstoculturalresources(includinginformationanddigitalplatforms)

– Promotedigitaldemocracy,internetneutralityandfreedomofspeech

Climate/environment policies– Preventprivatisationofnaturalresourcesandpublicgoods

– Createafundamentalrightofaccesstoenergyandwater

– Reducedependenceonfossilfuels

– Develop short production and consumption circuits to minimise the useofresources

– Fightclimatechangebydevelopingtruerenewableenergiesandenergysavings,improvementofpublictransport,andagainstnewmarketsolutionstocarbonemissions

– Developeconomicallyandecologically sustainable agriculture

– Protecttheseaandusemarineresourcesinanon-exploitativeway

– Fightagainstmarinepollutionandprotectoil,mining and gas reserves

Tax policies– Secureadequatesalariesanduniversalaccesstopensions

– Takeconcretemeasuresagainstpoverty

– ImposeaFinancialTransactionsTax(FTT)

– Developaminimumtaxforlargecorporates

– Takemeasuresagainsttaxevasionandendtaxhavens

Corporate governance policies– Imposepubliccountry-by-countryreporting‘definingobligationsoffulltransparencyforthestrategiesofthebigcompaniesactinginEurope’

– Strengthenthefightagainstcorruptionthroughindependentcontrol

– Respectpopularsovereigntyandpromotecitizens’involvementinEUdecision-making

– Legallyprotectwhistleblowersandjournalists

Competition policies– Notinmanifesto

Trade policies– Fightagainstfreetradeagreements

– Internationaltradeagreementswhichthreatenagriculture,industry,audio-visualbroadcasting,workers’rights,theenvironment,andculturemustberescinded

– SuspendEUassociationagreementswithcountriesthatviolatehumanrightsand/oroccupydisputedterritories,notablyIsraeland

Morocco

Functioning of EU institutions– Notinmanifesto

7.2%

51 seats


52 seats

Our expectation: what does it mean in practice for businessTheGUEareexpectedtoremainamarginalforceinthe European Parliament withlimitedinfluenceonpolicy-making.However,inthelikelyscenarioofamorefragmentedparliament,findingallianceswillbemoredifficultandGUEMEPs,whoarebroadlypro-European,willprobablybeneeded to secure voting majorityonspecificproposals,withothergroups(suchastheS&D,Greens,ALDEandevenEPP)on some particular issues.

Violeta Tomic (Slovenian)

Nico Cue (Belgium)

Populist-Eurosceptic- nationalist


Populist/ Eurosceptic/ nationalist

Party/groupPre-election:

EFDD(EuropeofFreedomandDirectDemocracy)

ENF(EuropeofNationsandFreedom)

Post-election(possibly):

EuropeanAllianceofPeoplesand Nations (EAPN)

Spitzenkandidat (if applicable)N/A

Thereisnocommonmanifestoyetandtheformationofanewpoliticalgroup(s)cannotoccuruntilaftertheelection(agroup needs to have at least 25 MEPs representing at least a quarterofEUmemberstates).Itisthereforetooearlytodeterminekeypriorities,althoughthemanifestosofsomeflagshipnationalparties(egtheGermanAlternativfürDeutschland (AfD) and the French Rassemblement National (RN))givessomeindicationoftheirdirectionoftraveland

possiblepointsof(dis)agreement.

Economic policiesAfD

– Reintroductionofnationalcurrencywhilemaintainingtheeuro in parallel

– RejectionofEUrulesontheresolutionofbanksandroleoftheECBinsupervisingbanking

RN

– Decrease French contribution to the EU budget

– Alignmonetarycreationwiththerealeconomyratherthanfinance

– Includethefightagainstunemploymentinthemissionsofthe ECB

Digital policies

AfD

– Increasedindependencefromforeignhardwareandsoftware

– Avoidover-regulationoftechsector

Climate/environment policiesAfD

– Reject Paris climate agreement and decarbonisation

– Favourmixtureofenergysources,includingthroughNordstreamIIandthedevelopmentofnewtypesofnuclear reactors

RN

– Favourlocalproductionandconsumptionbyde-taxingshort/localproductioncircuitsandover-taxingglobalisedand non-sustainable imports

Social policiesAfD

– Rejectstandardisationofsocialsecuritysystems

– Restrictwagedumpingthroughadditionalcontrolsontemporaryworkcontractsforlow-paidforeignworkers

RN

– Rejectstandardisationofsocialandfiscalsystemstopreserve French interests

– RepealtheDirectiveonPostedWorkers

Tax policiesAfD

– WorkforanOECD-levelsolutionforfightingtaxevasionandeliminatingtaxhavens

– Supportafinancialtransactiontax,ifintroducedatalltradingvenues,alsooutsidetheEU,andcollectednationwide

RN

– DecreasetaxforFrenchcitizens

– DecreasetaxforSMEs

Competition policiesAfD

– Public procurement in critical areas should be geared towardslong-termstrategicandsecurityconsiderations

RN

– Enddogmaoffreecompetition

– GiveprioritytoFrenchcompaniesinpublicprocurement

– Recognisethe‘nationalresponsibilityofcompanies’toencouragevirtuousbehaviours(suchasrefusalofdelocalisationandhiringofdomesticworkers)

EFDD

30 seats

4.26%

ENF

61 seats

8.65%

2014 results (if the UK leaves the EU, then the number of seats will fall to 705 from 751)EFDD

48

6.39%

ENF

- 24 seats

- 4.1%

Our expectation: what does it mean in practice for businessCurrenttalksbetweennationalpartieswithinthesegroupsareongoing(suchasItaly’sLegaandGermany’sAfD,bothmembersoftheEFDD,andItaly’sMovimento5StelleandAustria’sFPÖ,bothmembersoftheENF).Bringingtogether these parties has been historicallydifficult,notablybecausetheirviewsonsocial,economicandenvironmentalpolicy

differwidely.

However,thetrickwilllikelybeunitingeveryonearoundacommoninterest(opposingtheEU’sposition).Ifeffective,thiscouldresultinlegislativeparalysis.Suchgroup(s)wouldattempttoslowdowntheEU’sagendaandopposeanyformofeconomic,fiscaland political integration.

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European Parliament elections at 1st glance