European Paper Packaging OverviewAn outlook for the next two years

Gleb SinavskisAssociate Economist, European Paper Packaging

European Paper Week ‐ Brussels23rd November, 2016

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Gleb Sinavskis

• Previous experience in the financial services industry

• Masters in Economics from Uppsala University

• Co‐author of the European Packaging Paper 5‐Year and 15‐Year Forecasts

Associate Economist, European Paper Packaging

gsinavskis@risi.com 

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• Capacity• Demand• Trade• Production Costs

3

Containerboard

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Containerboard Expansion Projects for 2015‐2018

Company Location Country Capacity Year Quarter

Metsä Board Husum Mill Sweden 300 2015 2

Aviretta Ettringen Mill Germany 180 2015 2

Modern Karton Çorlu Mill Turkey 400 2015 3

Stora Enso Varkaus Mill Finland 300 2015 4

Parenco Renkum Mill Netherlands 385 2016 3

EcoPaper Zarnesti Mill Romania 280 2016 3

Rafael Hinojosa Sarria de Ter Mill Spain 90 2016 4Papierfabrik Schoellershammer Düren Mill Germany 250 2016 4

Pro-Gest Mantova Mill Italy 550 2017

Leipa Schwedt Mill Germany 450 2017 H2

International Paper Madrid Mill Spain 380 2017 H2

Heinzel Group Laakirchen Mill Austria 450 2017 H2

Hamburger Spremberg Mill (?) Germany or Turkey 450-493 2017 or 2018

Burgo Avezzano Mill Italy 200 (?) 2017 (?)

Schumacher Myszkow or Grudziadz Poland 250-300 2018

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Containerboard Expansion Projects 2015‐2018

Western European Containerboard Demand Growth is Slowing Down in 2016 and 2017

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[CELLREF][CELLREF] [CELLREF]

[CELLREF]

85%

86%

87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MILLION TONNES

Capacity Demand (APC) Production Operating Rates

Western European Virgin Containerboard

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[CELLREF]

[CELLREF][CELLREF] [CELLREF]

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MILLION TONNES

Capacity Demand Production

Western European Recycled Containerboard

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[CELLREF] [CELLREF] [CELLREF] [CELLREF]

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MILLION TONNES

Capacity Demand Production

Trade trends in Western EuropeModerate Changes Going Forward

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‐1

‐0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MILLION TONNES

Net Exports of Containerboard

Virgin Containerboard Recycled containerboard

Western European Virgin Containerboard Operating Rates and Production Costs

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70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

350

400

450

500

550

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

EURO

S PE

R TO

NNE

Virgin Containerboard

Production Costs Operating Rate

Western European Recycled Containerboard Operating Rates and Production Costs

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70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

350

400

450

500

550

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

EURO

S PE

R TO

NNE

Recycled Containerboard

Production Costs Operating Rate

Containerboard in Emerging Europe

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[CELLREF][CELLREF]

[CELLREF][CELLREF]

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MILLION TONNES

Overall Containerboard

Capacity Demand (APC) Production

Turkish Containerboard Trade Dynamics

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‐100

‐50

0

50

100

150

200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

THOUSA

ND TONNES

Quarterly Net Imports 

Recycled Containerboard Virgin Containerboard

• Demand• Production Costs• Trade

14

Cartonboard

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Western European Virgin Cartonboard

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[CELLREF] [CELLREF] [CELLREF] [CELLREF]

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MILLION TONNES

Capacity Demand (APC) Production

Western European Recycled Cartonboard

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[CELLREF] [CELLREF] [CELLREF] [CELLREF]

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MILLION TONNES

Capacity Demand (APC) Production

Western European Virgin Cartonboard Operating Rates and Production Costs

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70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

EURO

S PE

R TO

NNE

Virgin Cartonboard

Production Costs Operating Rate

Western European Recycled Cartonboard Operating Rates and Production Costs

18© Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. | Proprietary Information

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

EURO

S PE

R TO

NNE

Recycled Cartonboard

Production Costs Operating Rate

Trade trends in Western Europe

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0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MILLION TONNES

Net exports of cartonboard

Virgin Cartonboard Recycled Cartonboard

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Thank you!