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European gas market share
Francis Browne
Editorial Director Price Group
Conflict or Opportunity
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Will the Competition for European Market Share Lead to a Price War?
How long will the new pricing last?
Assessing oil price scenario vs. gas price scenario
Understanding the impact of LNG imports on European gas pricing dynamics
How does henry hub influence European pricing trends?
Exploring the relations between gas, power & carbon pricing
Agenda
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Lets recap on the previous panel Is there really conflict or opportunity…
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Russian gas flows to Europe soar in 2016
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Russian gas in the money in the near future
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Buyers introduce floors, ceilings into contracts What is the real value of volume and flexibility?
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“…in the European market, US LNG is
losing against Gazprom's pipeline
gas.” (October 21, 2016)
Gazprom’s board of directors concludes…
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Gazprom supplies to ‘Far Abroad’ since 2006 Exports to Europe, Turkey (minus ex-Soviet Union)
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
(Bcm/ year)
* Latest Gazprom forecast Source: Gazprom Export
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Norway’s exports start year at record highs
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“We have a very good understanding on the
next 20 years where we expect to export on
average 100 Bcm/year. That is less than today,
but it's still high. It's going to still be more than
20% of the EU's gas consumption." —
Norway’s energy minister Tord Lien talking to
Platts on November 10.
Norway’s energy minister on gas exports Sees 2016 exports in the same range as 2015’s 115 Bcm
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Algeria proves doubters wrong on gas supply
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Eclipse forecasts strong increase in Russian gas… Russian production vs NWE imports of Russian gas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
550
600
650
700
750
Ru
ssia
to
NW
E (b
cm/a
)
Ru
ssia
pro
du
ctio
n (
bcm
/a)
Russia production vs NWE imports
NWE-Russia Russia production
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All importers share increased market penetration Not conflict but opportunity
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
bcm
/a
NWE Supply Mix - Market Scenario
LNG
Russia
Other Domestic
UKCS
NCS
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Changing direction of US Gas
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Oil and technology key to US gas production
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US LNG supplies head mostly for Latin America
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Gulf Coast Marker (GCM) Reflects best netback value in absence of transaction data
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Cheniere’s LNG offtake deals Changing terms of new Cheniere contracts
Date Buyer Volume/year Duration Pricing basis Price index
28/10/2015 Engie 840,000 mt 5 years DES Northern European indices
21/09/2015 EDF 850,000 mt 2 years DES TTF
11/08/2015 EDF 630,000 mt To end-2018 DES TTF
18/12/2014 EDP 770,000 mt 20 years FOB N/A
17/07/2014 EDF 380,000 mt 20 years FOB Henry Hub
17/07/2014 EDF 390,000 mt 20 years FOB Henry Hub
02/06/2014 Gas Natural 1.5 million mt 20 years FOB Henry Hub
30/05/2014 Iberdrola 400,000 mt 20 years FOB Henry Hub
30/05/2014 Iberdrola 400,000 mt 20 years FOB Henry Hub
07/04/2014 Endesa 750,000 mt 20 years FOB Henry Hub
02/04/2014 Endesa 1.5 million mt 20 years FOB Henry Hub
25/03/2013 Centrica 1.75 million mt 20 years FOB Henry Hub
17/12/2012 Total 2 million mt 20 years FOB Henry Hub
26/01/2012 BG (Shell) 2 million mt 20 years FOB Henry Hub
21/11/2011 Gas Natural 3.5 million mt 20 years FOB Henry Hub
26/10/2011 BG (Shell) 3.5 million mt 20 years FOB Henry Hub
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Bentek Price Forecast – Henry Hub
$2,50
$3,00
$3,50
$4,00
$4,50
фев.17 май.17 авг.17 ноя.17 фев.18 май.18 авг.18 ноя.18 фев.19 май.19 авг.19 ноя.19
Bentek NYMEX Foreward Curve
Fundamentals are
decidedly bullish this
winter and in 2017
The Market seems to think Northeast
infrastructure will come online and
pressure Henry Hub
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Bid week at the core of US physical hub pricing Basis pricing the key to its robustness
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Price basis HH
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Infrastructure remains key
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#POTUS
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Thank you very much! [email protected]
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