“Adaptation to the Consequences of Climate Change Process: progress achieved and capacity building needed”

Budapest, 19-20 November, 2007

EEA Activities on Adaptation: progress EEA Activities on Adaptation: progress achieved and cooperation aheadachieved and cooperation ahead

Michaela Schaller, ETC/ACC

André Jol & Stéphane Isoard, European Environment Agency

European Environment AgencyEuropean Environment Agency

The European Environment Agency is the EU body dedicated to providing sound, independent

information on the environment

We are a main information source for those involved in developing, adopting, implementing

and evaluating environmental policy, and also the general public

The EEA mission

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EEA’s mandateEEA’s mandate• To help the Community and member countries make

informed decisions about improving the environment, integrating environmental considerations into economic policies and moving towards sustainability

• To coordinate the European environment information and observation network (Eionet)

About 300 national institutions

•National focal points•European topic centres•National reference centres•Other institutions

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EEA member and collaborating countries

Member countries

Collaborating countries

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EEA’s clients

Institutions and governmentsEuropean Commission, Parliament, Council, EEA member countries

• InfluencersNGOs, business, media, advisory groups, scientists, debaters

• General public

• EEA’s networking partners

• Eionet partners in 32 member countries + collaborating countries (NFPs, NRCs)

• Commission services (DG ENV, TREN, AGRI, Eurostat, JRC)

• International organisations (UNEP, UNECE, WHO, OECD)

• EEA’s products

• diverse publications & information (Reports, briefings, etc.)

http://www.eea.europa.eu

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EEA‘s main Products on Impacts, Vulnerability EEA‘s main Products on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change (Past)and Adaptation to Climate Change (Past)

• EEA Report No 2/2004 „Impact of Europe‘s changing climate“

• Review of scenario exercises in the context of cc adaptation in Europe (CASE background study)

• EEA Technical Report No 7/2005 „Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe“

• EEA Technical Report No 2/2007 „Climate change and water adaptation issues“

• (Europe‘s Environment. The fourth Assessment, 2007)

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Key European CC vulnerabilities (biogeographical regions)

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River flooding events 1998-2005River flooding events 1998-2005 • About 100 (river) floods: more than 700 fatalities, a million people affected and

25 billion EUR in insured economic losses

Data-source: EEA, 2006, unpublished

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Water Quantitiy

• One‑third of the pan‑European population lives in countries where water resources are under substantial pressure.

• Over the past five years, the region has suffered more than 100

major floods.

River catchments affected by flooding 1998-2005

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Vernagt glacier (Austria) lost more than 50% of Vernagt glacier (Austria) lost more than 50% of mass between 1912 and 2003mass between 1912 and 2003

Source: Global Outlook for Ice and Snow, UNEP, 2007

11Source: Zemp, 2006

Cumulative net balance loss of glaciers from the community of independent states (C.I .S.)

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Cu

mu

lati

ve

sp

ec

ific

ne

t b

ala

nc

e (

mm

w.e

.)

Ts. Tuyuksuyskiy Igli Tuyuksu Manshuk Mametov Mayakovskiy Molodezhniy

Ordzhonikidze Partizan Shumskiy Visyachiy-1-2 Zoya Kosmodemya

Abramov Golubin Kara-Batkak Djankuat Garabashi

Kozelskiy Leviy Aktru Maliy Aktru No. 125 (Vodopadniy)

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Projected shifts in water runoff in the Alps (increase in winter, decrease in summer)

Source: Beniston, 2005

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Projected changes in water runoff (decrease in south/east, increase in north/north west)

Source: PESETA project, PRUDENCE; IPCC SRES A2 high emission scenario (change mean 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990)

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Projected increase in heat-related deaths in Southern Projected increase in heat-related deaths in Southern EuropeEurope

Source: PESETA project, PRUDENCE; IPCC SRES A2 high emission scenario (change mean 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990)

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Projected local extinction of plants in Southern EuropeProjected local extinction of plants in Southern Europe

Source: ATEAM, 2004, IPCC A2 scenario

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Key relevant EU research programmes• PRUDENCE/ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE based predictions of climate change and

their impacts)• ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European Climate Policy)• ALARM (Assessing LArge scale Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods)• BRANCH (Biodiversity Requires Adaptation in Northwest Europe under a

CHanging climate)• CarboEurope (Assessment of the European Terrestrial Carbon Balance)• CIRCLE (Climate Impact Research Coordination for a Larger Europe, European

Research Area)• CIRCE (Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment)• CLAVIER (Climate Change and Variability:Impact on Central and Eastern Europe)• COST 725 (Establishing a European Phenological Data Platform for Climatological

Applications)• ESPACE (European Spatial Planning: Adapting to Climate Events)• Euro-limpacs (Evaluating the Impacts of Global Change on European Freshwater

Ecosystems)• FLOODSITE (Integrated Flood Risk Analysis and Management Methodologies)• GRACE (Groundwater Resources and Climate Change Effects)• PACE (Permafrost and Climate in Europe)• SCENES (Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States)

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Examples of national assessments

• Finland: FINADAPT (Assessing the adaptive capacity of the Finnish environment and society under a changing climate)

• Germany: KomPass (Competence Centre on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation)

• Hungary: VAHAVA Changing (VÁltozás) Impact (HAtás) Response (VÁlaszadás)

• Netherlands: CcSP (Climate Changes Spatial Planning)

• Portugal: SIAM (Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures)

• Spain: ECCE (Assessment of the Preliminary Impacts in Spain due to Climate Change)

• Sweden: SWECLIM (Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme)

• UK: UKCIP (Climate Impact Programme)

• All countries: communications to UNFCCC

• Preparation of national adaptation strategies: Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, UK

• Sectoral actions mainly in areas with a long tradition of dealing with climate extremes such as flood defence, water scarcity and droughts

• Water sector- recent focus of EEA study (with German Presidency) with a country survey: very high awareness, measures implemented, planned or underway from technical engineering, building codes, spatial planning, improved forecasting, improved landscape management, behaviour campaigns, new economic instruments

Current adaptation measures

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Recent droughts and flooding – range of actions

Droughts:• New legislation: France, Portugal• New water savings standards, recycling: Cyprus, UK• New infrastructure, desalinisation plants: Cyprus,

Spain, UK• Effective economic instruments: Germany

Floods:• Emergency responses, improved forecasting- all• Self- protection and flood awareness• Spatial planning and land management• Hard and soft engineering

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● Scope and review impacts (and opportunities) - mapping exercise

● Simple risk analysis to assess the probability and the consequences

● Adaptation responses considered and appraised (decision making)

● Ad. Plan (raise awareness, strengthen capacity, incorporate in policy / operations)

• Strategic: broad corporate plans, policies and management strategies

• Operational: specific services that each organisation provides

• Functional: as applies to the internal business processes and units

● Consultation throughout

● Review: act (learn) act again

● Number of organisations involved – from scoping to detailed analysis (hazard, vulnerability and exposure )

High Risk

(priority)

Low Risk

Probability

4

1

2

3

+4+3+2+1

Magnitude

Possible practical steps

Source: Paul Watkiss

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Challenges: what is needed next?

• Climate-proof EU policies and Directives (Agriculture, Industry, Energy, Health, Water, Marine, Ecosystems/Biodiversity, Forestry)

• Integrate adaptation into EU’s funding programmes (Structural, Cohesion and Solidarity funds, Agriculture and Rural Development funds)

• Consider new policies, e.g. spatial planning as an integration tool

• Integrate adaptation in EU external relations (developing countries)

• Enhancing the knowledge base, e.g. regarding regional scale and information on costs

• Involvement of civil society, business sector organisations and enhanced information exchange

• Exploit opportunities for innovative adaptation technologies

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Future Activities EEA (ETC/ACC) CC Impacts & Adaptation

• Provide support to EU policy development on adaptation (e.g. follow-up of Green Paper)

• Continue networking with main clients and partners, e.g. - 1st EIONET Workshop on CC vulnerability, impacts & adaptation

(27-28 November 2007)

• Publish indicator based assessment report on impacts of cc in Europe in 2008 (update of 2004) & update core set cc impact indicators

• Develop adaptation indicators & scenarios

• Develop approaches to integrate cc impacts & adaptation issues in other main policy areas

• Further work on costs of adaptation, exploring approaches to include country specific information

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Thank you for your attention!

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European Topic Centres (ETC)

Consortia of institutions across EEA member countries dealing with a specific environmental topic and contracted by EEA to perform specific activities as defined in the EEA work programme

• ETC Water • ETC Land Use & Spatial Information• ETC Resource & Waste Management • ETC Air & Climate Change • ETC Biological Diversity

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Why is adaptation important ? Why is adaptation important ?

• Climate change cannot be totally avoided• Anticipatory adaptation can be more effective

and less costly than “retrofitting” or “emergency adaptation”

• Climate change may be more rapid and pronounced than currently known

• Immediate benefits from adaptation to current climate variability and extreme events

• Avoid maladaptive policies and practices

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Timing – pro-active vs. reactive ?

Cost-effective adaptation – what is

proportionate and efficient?

Ancillary effects – positive and

negative?

Differences in scale, from EU to local

Integration & consistency?

Appropriate adaptation “stakeholder-

led”, rather than enforced

Cross-sectoral

Uncertainty – different confidence for

average temperature vs. extremes

Determined by future socio-economic

development

Ownership - different actors (builder vs.

operator)

Time-scales – investing now for benefits in

the (far) future

Inequalities (impacts and adaptive capacity)

Complexities Challenges

Some issues with adaptation

Source: Paul Watkiss

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EEA is member of the advisory group of the EEA is member of the advisory group of the following projectsfollowing projects

• ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European Climate Policy; 6th FP; 2006-2009)

• SCENES (Water Scenarios for Europe and for neighbouring States; 6th FP; 2007-2010)

• ALARM (Assessing LArge scale Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods, 6th FP)

• GEMS (Global and regional Earth-system (Atmosphere) Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data, 6th FP)

• Euro-limpacs (Evaluating the Impacts of Global Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems, 6th FP)

• CarboEurope-IP (Assessment of the European Terrestrial Carbon Balance, 6th FP)

• CIRCLE (Climate Impact Research Coordination for a Larger Europe, European Research Area (ERA-Net), 6th FP)

• CcSP (Climate changes Spatial Planning, Netherlands research programme)

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Projected crop yield decrease in Southern Europe, increase in Northern Europe (2 models)

Source: PESETA project, PRUDENCE; IPCC SRES A2 high emission scenario (change mean 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990)