Europe-Middle-East-North-Africa Energy Security based on

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Europe-Middle-East-North-Africa Energy Security based on Trans-Mediterranean Cooperation

Franz Trieb

NATO Headquarters, Brussels, September 24, 2009

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Trans-Mediterranean High Voltage Direct Current Electricity Grid:Interstate Highways for Renewable Electricity in EUMENA

www.desertec.org

EUMENA:EuropeMiddle EastNorth Africa

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Studies:

Assessment of the renewable energy potential for

the sustainable supply of electricity and water in

50 countries of Europe, the Middle East and

North Africa taking into consideration the option of

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP).

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSPMED-CSPMED-CSP AQUA-CSPAQUA-CSP

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Criteria for Sustainable Electricity Supply:

Inexpensivelow electricity cost no long term subsidies

Secure diversified and redundant supply power on demandbased on inexhaustible resourcesavailable or at least visible technologycapacities expandable in time

Compatible low pollution climate protectionlow risks for health and environmentfair access

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Portfolio of Energy Sources for Electricity:

Coal, Lignite

Oil, Gas

Nuclear Fission, Fusion

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)

Geothermal Power (Hot Dry Rock)

Biomass

Hydropower

Wind Power

Photovoltaic

Wave / Tidal

ideally storedprimary energy

fluctuatingprimaryenergy

storable primaryenergy

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• spinning reserve

• firm capacity,power on demand

• combined generation of process heat for cooling,industry, desalination, etc.

Fuel

Thermal Power Cycle (e.g. Steam

Turbine)

Process Heat

Electricity

Principle of a Conventional Thermal Power Plant

Concentrating Solar Collector Field (Mirrors)

Solar Heat

Thermal Energy Storage

• concentrated, easily storable solar thermalenergy as fuel saver

Principle of a Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plant

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Renewable Energy Technologies

Hydropower

Tides

Waves Wind PowerPhotovoltaic

Geothermal

ConcentratingSolar Power

Biomass

http://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/inhalt/36983/35338/

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High Voltage Direct Current Transmission in China

Voltage: ± 800.000 VoltPower: 6400 MegawattLength: 2070 kmSource: Hydropower

http://www.abb.comhttp://www.siemens.com

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Biomass (0-1)

Wind Energy (5-50)

Geothermal (0-1)

Hydropower (0-50)

Solar (10-250)

Max

Min

Electricity Yield in GWh/km²/y

Renewable Electricity Potential in Europe, Middle East & North Africa

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0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Potentials Demand 2000 Demand 2050

Ele

ctr

icit

y in

TW

h/y

Solar

Geothermal

Hydro

Wind

Biomass

Wave/Tide

Desalination

MENA

Europe

Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials vs. Demand in EUMENA

> 630000

How Does a Sustainable Mix Look Like?

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Installed Capacity vs. Peak Load in EUMENA

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Inst

alle

d C

apaci

ty [G

W]

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400 Photovoltaic

Wind Power

Geothermal

Hydropower

Biomass

Tidal/Wave

CSP

Oil & Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Firm Capacity

Peak Load

100 % availability plus 25 % reserve capacity

5000 h/a 2000 h/a

Import/ExportDesalination

www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp

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Availability and Redundancy

Power on Demand by a Mix of Fluctuating and Balancing Sources

Increased Number of Non-Correlated Energy Sources

Increased Number and Reduced Average Size of Power Plants

Increased Number of Supply Regions

Additional HVDC Grid Infrastructure for Long-Distance Transfer

Domestic Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix

Renewable Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix

Strategy Based on Proven Technologies

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Carbon emissions of EUMENA power sector are reduced to 38 % until 2050 in spite of a quickly growing demand

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

CO

2-E

mis

sio

ns

in

Mt/

y

Avoided

Import Solar

Photovoltaics

Wind

Geothermal

Hydropower

Wave / Tidal

Biomass

CSP Plants

Oil / Gas

Coal

Nuclear

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Environmental Security

Reduced Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Power Generation

Reduced Risks of Nuclear Radiation and Proliferation

Reduced Local Pollution by Combustion Products

Optimal Land Use (1%) through Diversified Mix

Technology based on Recyclable Materials

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Electricity Cost (Example Spain)

4.04.55.0

5.56.06.57.0

7.58.0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Ele

ctri

city

Cos

t[c/

kWh]

TRANS-CSP Mix BaU Mix 2000

€2000, Fuel Cost: IEA / WEO 2005, after 2020 CCS

Investment Phase Profit Phase

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Economic Security

Economic Risk Hedged by Increased Portfolio

Intrinsic Trend to Lower Cost and Lower Price Volatility

Energy Cost Stabilization through Investment in New Sources

Prevention of Cost Escalation due to Environmental Constraints

Prevention of Cost Escalation due to Scarcity

Reduction of Energy Subsidies in Europe and MENA

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Energy, Water,Food, Labor and Income

for further300 Million People in MENA ?

Solar Power & Desalination Plants

HVDC Line

Conventional AC Grid

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AQUA-CSP Scenario for Middle East & North Africa

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Wat

er C

onsu

mpt

ion

[Bm

³/y]

Natural Water Used Wastewater reused Fossil Fuel DesalinationGroundwater Over-Use CSP Desalination Efficiency Gains

www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp

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Political Security

Conflict Prevention between EU and MENA Reducing Pressure on Fuels

Conflict Prevention in MENA Solving Energy and Water Scarcity

Conflict Prevention in Europe Increasing Energy Diversity

Reduction of European Energy Import Dependency

Addition of Energy Corridors for European Supply

Initiating EU-MENA (Energy) Partnership

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Challenges

Requires New Structures and New Thinking (Change of Paradigm)

Requires Long-Term Financing Scheme for Large Infrastructure

Based on International Cooperation and Interdependencies

Higher Complexity than Using Ideally Stored Fossil Energy Sources

More Stakeholders Involved due to Decentralized Generation

Cultural and Political Differences in EUMENA

Lobby Groups Acting Against Each Other

Speed of Environmental Change and Conflict Potentials

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Thank You!

www.dlr.de/desertec

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Some Background Information

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0.800.750.670.60Capacity Factor

350

45

245

31

134

16

42

5

Cum. Investment CSP

Billion € HVDC

0.040

0.010

0.040

0.010

0.045

0.010

0.050

0.014

Elec. Cost CSP

€/kWh HVDC

50 x 503600 x 1.0

40 x 403600 x 0.7

30 x 303600 x 0.4

15 x 153100 x 0.1

Land Area CSP

km x km HVDC

352412.53.8Turnover Billion €/y

70047023060Transfer TWh/y

40 x 2.528 x 2.516 x 2.54 x 2.5Lines x Capacity GW

2050204020302020Year

Total EU-MENA HVDC Interconnection 2020 – 2050 *

* All countries analysed in TRANS-CSP


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Electricity Supply in Europe (TRANS-CSP Scenario)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Ele

ctric

ity[T

Wh/

y]

Import SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclear


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Electricity Supply in the Middle East & North Africa

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Ele

ctric

ity[T

Wh/

y]

DesalinationExport SolarPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil / GasCoalNuclear

www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp

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3,912 – 5,352 2,232

10010

1228

10250

100

total6,821-8,261 MW

5052

2020 25

3,912 – 5,352 2,232

10010

1228

10250

100

total6,821-8,261 MW

5052

2020 25

430 MW operating, 500 MW under construction~8,000 MW under development

Units in MW

Concentrating Solar Power Projects 2009

www.dlr.de/tt/csp-resources

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Solar Electricity Corridors to Europe: REACCESS


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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2000 2200 2400 2600 2800

Direct Normal Irradiation [kWh/m²/y]

An

nu

al F

ull

Lo

ad

Ho

urs

[h/y

]

SM4

SM3

SM2

SM1

ANDASOL 1

Nevada Solar 1

Effect of Thermal Energy Storage on the Availability of CSP


Solar Field1

Storage1

Power Block

Solar Field2

Solar Field3

Solar Field4

Storage2

Storage3

SM1 SM2 SM3 SM4

Electricity

Solar Field1

Storage1

Power Block

Solar Field2

Solar Field3

Solar Field4

Storage2

Storage3

SM1 SM2 SM3 SM4

Electricity

SM = Solar Multiple1 Solar Field = 6000 m²/MW1 Storage = 6 hours (full load)

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0.010

0.100

1.000

100 1000 10000 100000 1000000

Installed Capacity [MW]

Ele

ctri

city

Co

st[€

/kW

h]

Cost of Concentrating Solar Power

Irradiation 2400 kWh/m2/y5% Discount Rate, Life 25 Years

log2

logPR

0

x0x P

Pcc

60 €/kWh92%Storage

1200 €/kW98%Power Block

360 €/m290%Solar Field

Start2005(c0)

ProgressRatio (PR)

CSP Learning Curve

numbers in constant (real) €2000

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Import Dependency of European Power Generation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

En

erg

y Im

po

rt f

or

Po

wer

Ge

ne

rati

on

Import Dependencyin TRANS-CSPScenario

Current Trend ofImport Dependency


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Firm Power Capacity based on Renewables and Fuel(no fossil or nuclear base load supply)

Hourly Model Germany 2050 (TRANS-CSP)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

25.6. 26.6. 27.6. 28.6. 29.6. 30.6. 1.7.

Po

wer

Su

pp

ly[G

W]

Combined Heat & Power Domestic Renewables Solar Import

Import & Pump Storage Balancing Power (fossil) Surplus

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Global Potential for Concentrating Solar Power

Global Technical Potential: 3,000,000 TWh/yGlobal Electricity Consumption: 18,000 TWh/y


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Europe-Middle-East-North-Africa Energy Security based on