Eurelectric Power Stats 2010 Synopsis

8/3/2019 Eurelectric Power Stats 2010 Synopsis

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Power Statistics2010 EditionSynopsis


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The Union of the Electricity IndustryEURELECTRIC is the sector association representing

the common interests of the Electricity Industry at pan-European level, plus its afliates and

associates on several other continents.

In line with its mission, EURELECTRIC seeks to contribute to the competitiveness of the

Electricity Industry, to provide effective representation for the industry in public affairs, and

to promote the role of electricity both in the advancement of society and in helping provide

solutions to the challenges of sustainable development.

EURELECTRICs formal opinions, policy positions and reports are formulated in Working

Groups, composed of experts from the Electricity Industry, supervised by ve Committees.

This structure of expertise ensures that EURELECTRICs published documents are based

on high-quality input with up-to-date information.

For further information on EURELECTRIC activities, visit our website www.eurelectric.org, whichprovides general information on the association and on policy issues relevant to the Electricity

Industry; latest news of our activities; EURELECTRIC positions and statements; a publications

catalogue listing EURELECTRIC reports; and information on our events and conferences.

EURELECTRIC pursues in all its activities the application of the following sustainable development values:

Economic Development

Growth, added-value, efciency

Environmental Leadership

Commitment, innovation, pro-activeness

Social Responsibility

Transparency, ethics, accountability

Union of the Electricity Industry EURELECTRIC A.I.S.B.L.

Boulevard de lImpratrice, 66 Bote 2 B- 1000 Brussels Belgium

Tel: + 32 2 515 10 00 Fax: + 32 2 515 10 10

www.eurelectric.org


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Power Statistics 2010 Edition Synopsis 1

Foreword

The electricity industry has been steadily reducing its carbon footprint in recent years. Whilst

a double-digit growth has been attained in terms of electricity production, the carbon dioxide

emissions in the EU-27 have roughly stabilised, which shows a clear decrease in the carbon contentof each kilowatt-hour of electricity supplied. This decrease is the result of large-scale introduction

of carbon-neutral generation capacity into the system as well as more advanced, clean technologies

for conventional plants.

I am happy to share with you Power Statistics 2010, the 38th edition of the EURELECTRIC statistical

yearbook (formerly called EURPROG). Building on the expertise of our members, this report aims

to give a better understanding of the European electricity sector and its latest developments.

Beyond historical data, Power Statistics 2010 also delivers perspectives on 2020 and 2030 to show

the trends to carbon-neutral electricity.

An affordable, secure and sustainable supply of electricity is one of the cornerstones of modern

society. The electricity industry plays a key role in advancing towards a low-carbon economy

and society. Firstly, the industry is committed to decreasing its own emissions even further. With

the right economy-wide framework in place, EURELECTRICs objective is to achieve a 90% CO2

emission reduction by 2050 over 2005 levels, as laid out in our Power Choices study. Secondly,

carbon-neutral electricity, by steadily increasing its share in the energy mix and especially

in applications such as transport and heating & cooling, will then provide the basis for carbon

neutrality of our societies at large. However, many challenges still lie ahead of us: the deployment

of all low-carbon technologies, the integration of electricity markets currently constrained by

national borders, a major paradigm shift towards the electrication of society, and nally the

right political framework, which depends on policymakers decisions and on the support of the

general public.

Power Statistics 2010 provides you with the latest available statistics. For us, primary and

independent data from the electricity industry constitute the very ingredient for decision-making:

a solid basis for assessing the current situation, as well as the way ahead.

Lars G. Josefsson

President of EURELECTRIC


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2 Power Statistics 2010 Edition Synopsis

5Key Messages

Electricity demand rose by 70%

between 1980 and 2008

This trend towards electrication is expected to continue and reects the

substitution of fossil fuels with electricity in prime sectors such as heating

and transport (Figures 1 & 5).

Electricity Efciency is increasing

Power Statistics 2010 shows a clear de-coupling of electricity generation

from fuel consumption, a trend that is expected to become even more

signicant in the next 20 years (Figure13).


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The electricity industry

is reducing its emissionsPower Statistics2010 sheds light on a continuous decrease in CO

2emissions,

as well as in other gases (SO2

and NOx ). CO

2emissions from electricity

generation fell by 33 % in relative terms between 1980 and 2008, and will

be more than halved by 2030. Compared to 1980, SO2

emissions have been

reduced by 80 % and NOx

emissions by 60 % (Figures14-17).

Power is and will be generated

using all available technologies

Power Statistics 2010 shows that the entire range of power generation

technologies has been used, although the proportions have shifted over

time. This diversied mix is crucial to ensure security of supply and to

achieve an optimal balance between intermittent renewable energy sources(RES) and exible and back-up capacity (Figures9-11).

The electricity industry is investing

signicantly in RES

Power Statistics 2010 shows that the electricity industry has taken up

the challenge and has become a signicant investor in new RES (mainly

wind, solar and biomass), whose capacity in 2008 was almost 60 times the

capacity in 1980. But for the industry to deliver in an optimal way carbon-

neutral, commercially viable, at affordable prices an integrated European

electricity market is needed (Figure12).


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Power Statistics2010 gathers the latest available data from the electricity sector, with forecasts up to 2030.

It contains referenced data: from EURELECTRIC members from all 27 EU member states, as well as from Switzerland, Norway

and Turkey;

for the years 1980, 1990, 2000, 2007, 2008, as well as forecasts for 2010, 2020 and 2030.

concerning: the structure of the electricity industry;

trends in general economic indicators;

peak demand and load management;

medium and long-term generating prospects; sectoral electricity consumption;

electricity balances;

fuel consumption in and emissions from the electricity sector.

Power Statistics2010 primarily contains data from 2008, although preliminary information on 2009 has

also been gathered and is partly integrated into the report.

The synopsis of EURELECTRICs Power Statistics 2010 conveys key messages about the electricity

industry and its position in Europe.

What is Power Statistics 2010?


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Setting the Scene:

Macroeconomic and Regulatory Trends

With the world economy in turmoil from late 2008, the recession

began affecting the electricity sector severely from 2009

onwards. Between 2008 and 2009 overall energy consumption

in the EU-27 decreased by 5.5 %.1

While not explicitly reected in the 2008 gures, the economic

downturn appears very clearly in the provisional 2009 data

incorporated into this report. Energy-intensive industries

reduced their consumption signicantly, thus reducing total

electricity consumption. Electricity demand was affected from

2008 or 2009 onwards (depending on the country in question),

showing negative consumption trends. Total EU electricitydemand dropped, between 2008 and 2009, by 4.2 % from

3,165 TWh to 3,034 TWh (see Figure 1).

Despite the overall decrease in electricity demand, national

patterns vary widely the economic crisis did not strike evenly

throughout Europe. In 2009, Slovenia experienced the biggest

year-on-year decrease, with a decline of 10.9 %. Slovakia,

Hungary and Estonia also experienced cuts exceeding 8 %. As

for the large electricity consuming countries, demand fell by 6.5 %

in Italy, by 5.2 % in Germany, by 4.3 % in Spain and by 3.9 % in

the UK. Within this category, only France saw a lower decrease

of1.6 %. Similar decreases (between 1 and 2 percentage points)

were registered in Bulgaria, Poland, Portugal and Romania.

The only country with rising demand was Cyprus (+ 2 %).

Figure 1: EU-27Total electricity demand (EU-27)

Economic crisis and electricity demand downturn

1 Source: DG ENER, Energy Trends 2030.

Total demand (TWh)

0

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

3500

3000

1980 1990 2000 2007 2008 2009


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Outlook up to 2030

Gross domestic product trends

Although economic growth is expected to resume from 2010

onwards, the recent recession will have a long-term impact even

beyond 2015. It will be difcult to recover the important losses in

gross domestic product (GDP) across Europe in the near future.

Average EU growth prospects for 2011 and 2012 are indicated to

be around 1 %. A further increase in GDP across Europe is to be

expected from 2013 onwards.

A breakdown of the EU-27 GDP (see Figure 2) reveals the dominant

role of services (including transportation). Both the industry

and services sectors recover after 2010, partially offsetting the

negative effects of the 2008-2009 crisis. Sustained recovery will

then occur between 2020 and 2030.

Based on these gures, the standard of living in Europe (GDPper capita) is expected to increase at a low rate of roughly 1-2 %

annually, near or even above ination rates. Recovery will be

very unequal across Europe, and forecasts are contradictory

and require further detailed analysis. The resulting, increased

pressure on all resource requirements and infrastructure,

including energy, electricity and associated networks, means

that strong incentives for investment will be needed.

Demography: low population growthto be offset by dynamic migration

Demographic trends within the EU-27 will continue to follow a

low growth scenario ( see Figure 3 ), with some countries on a

negative growth track. For instance, the German population will

drop from 82 million in 2008 to 78 million in 2030, while Italys

population of approximately 60 million is expected to decrease

to 58 million during the same period. Dynamic immigration is

expected to be an important factor in offsetting this trend.

Breakdown of Gross Domestic Product

2000

0

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

16000

14000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

GDP(2000

prices)

Agriculture

Industry

Services

Gross Domestic Product

Demographic evolution of the EU population

0

500

400

300

200

100

700

600

1980 1990 2000 2007 202020102008 2030

463.648476.199 488.145

503.076 505.305 506.948515.345 521.653

Figure 2: Breakdown of EU-27gross domestic product

(billion euros at2000 price levels and exchange rate)

Figure3: Demographic evolution of the EU population

(thousands, at year end)


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Fossil fuel price trends:continuous increase up to 2030

Oil prices are expected to increase up to 2030, as forecast by

the Prometheus model developed by the National Technical

University of Athens (see Figure 4 ). They would rise to 72

Euros/bbl by 2015 and to roughly 106 Euros/bbl by 2030. Gas

prices will follow a similar curve, albeit at lower price levels.

Coal prices will rise to 17 Euros/boe in 2015 and stabilise at

around 29 Euros/boe by 2030. Thus, fossil fuel prices for oil,

gas and coal are all expected to increase throughout the entire

projection period.

Electricity demand grows steadily

EURELECTRICs Power Choices study foresees electricity demand

to grow steadily over the next decades, substituting fossil fuels

as the primary source of energy (see Figure 5). This will primarily

materialise because of a shift in some high consumption sectors,

namely transport and heating. The increased use of electronic

appliances will push electricity consumption even further. Final

curves will appear to atten, since energy efciency measures

(including generation efciency), demand side measures (DSM),

smart grids as well as other new technologies applied to the

sector are expected to contribute.

Electricity Share (%) in the Energy Mix

5

10

0

35

30

25

20

15

50

45

40

1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030

share

Solids

Oil

Gas

Electricity

Steam/Heat

renewables

Fossil Fuel Prices in Baseline (Constant Euro of 2008 per boe)

20

0

100

80

60

40

120

1980 1990 19951985 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Oil

Gas (NCV)

Coal

105.88

76.59

29.35

88.41

62.11

25.81

71.88

44.18

17.22

Figure 4: Energy price trends up to 2030 Figure 5: Share of electricity in the overall EU energy mix

Source: DG ENER, Energy Trends 2030, 2010, based on Prometheus. Source: EURELECTRIC, Power Choices, June 2010. Values here are

shown as nal consumption, and electricity values do not include

electricity consumption of the electricity sector.


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Figure 6 summarises some of the most recent EU policy

developments. The implementation of the third liberalisation

package is on the agenda for early 2011. Yet with the second

liberalisation package still not fully implemented across member

states, a full implementation of the third liberalisation package

cannot be expected before 2015 at the earliest. Completing

the internal energy market remains an ambitious project, with

interconnectors gaining prominence, as within the European

Commissions infrastructure package. An integrated European

electricity market is key for EURELECTRICs members.

Along with the opening of energy markets, the EU agreed upon

an ambitious climate and energy package aimed at fostering

the development of less carbon-intensive energy systems.

Policy and regulatory trends: decarbonisation,

market integration and security of supply

The RES Directive (Directive 2009/28 ), the setting up of a

regulatory framework for the development of carbon capture

and storage (CCS) (Directive 2009/31 ), and the amended ETS

Directive (Directive 2009/29 ) represent major steps towards

the decarbonisation of the EU economy. Furthermore, energy

efciency is expected to become a priority from the beginning

of2011 onwards, when a revised Energy Efciency Action Plan

will be brought forward by the European Commission.

As a strong supporter of the EUs three main energy policy

objectives the completion of the single European energy

market, decarbonisation and energy security EURELECTRIC is

in permanent consultation with the European Commission on

the new legislation and its implementation.

Figure 6: EU-27policy trends

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ...up to 2020 ...up to 2030 ...up to 2040...up to 2050

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ...up to 2020...up to 2030 ...up to 2040 ...up to 2050

EnergyStrategy

Security ofSupply (SoS)

Market

Liberalisation

Renewables20% by 2020

Emissions-20% by 2020EnergyEfficiency-20% by 2020

EU Policy Developments

an energy policy for europe

2nd strategic energy review

eu energy strategy 2020

eu infrastructure package

1st res directive

2nd res directive

res financing communication

ets phase 1 ets phase 2 ets phase 3

1st liberalisation package 2nd liberalisation package 3rd liberalisation package

1st ee action plan 2nd ee action plan 3rd ee action plan

eu roadmap 2050 (climate, move, energy)

electricity SoS directive

gas SoS directive gas SoS regulation


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Electricity Statistics

Electricity demand increases,driven by heating and transport

Over a period of nearly three decades, from 1980 to 2008,

electricity demand increased by more than 70 % (see Figure 1

above). While the economic crisis led to a reduction in demand

of about 4.2 %, the shift towards electrication, as well as the

recovery of electricity demand from industry and services,

means growth will resume before 2020.

All sectors agriculture, industry, transport, services,

as well as households are expected to increase theirelectricity consumption up to 2020 ( see Figure 7 ). Whilst

industrial consumption will stabilise at around pre-crisis

levels in the range of1,200 - 1,300 TWh consumption by

services is expected to rise from about 600 TWh (2008 ) to

900 TWh by 2020. A spectacular shift will occur in household

consumption, with a 40 % increase driven by the expected

electrific ation of heating, as well as for example the increased

usage of IT and electronic entertainment devices. Electricity

consumption in the transport sector is also set to achieve

double digit growth, assuming large-scale electrificationof road transportation.

Demand Trends

2 * For the sake of completeness, estimations have been performed by EURELECTRICs Secretariat in order to gain a comprehensive picture for the

EU-27. As a consequence, it must be noted that this table differs from the table published in the full report.

1980 1990 2000 2007 2008 2010* 2020*

Final Consumption 1,703.6 2,175.4 2,633.0 2,928.0 2,938.9 2,595.0 3,242.2

of which Agriculture 46.2 59.1 60.5 55.9 57.0 52.9 62.6

Industry 892.1 1,060.6 1,180.5 1,235.4 1,226.4 1,059.2 1,288.0

Transport 48.9 61.6 74.6 79.3 76.1 66.0 98.1

Services 262.8 427.2 595.4 607.0 606.4 660.6 888.9

Households 405.5 562.6 716.2 655.3 653.7 745.9 904.6

Figure 7: Annual electricity consumption by sector2


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Generation Trends

Installed capacity vs. electricity generation:independent trends

Figure 9 clearly reveals the importance of the capacity factor

of generating capacities. Different generation sources have

different capacity factors, which are inuenced by the type of

resource used, the technology, etc.3 Therefore, the shares of

installed capacity for different technologies do not necessarily

translate into the same shares in electricity production.

Thus, although nuclear represented roughly one sixth of total

generating capacity in 2008, its actual share of electricity production

was almost one third, since nuclear power plants are commonly

run in base-load mode. By contrast, hydro capacities in the EU-27,

which represented a similar share of generating capacity, yielded

lower values of electricity production due to the several different

running modes of hydro power plants. The low capacity factor of

wind and solar (grouped under other renewables in Figure9)

translated into relatively low electricity generation gures compared

to installed capacity. However, this discrepancy does not apply to

biomass plants, which tend to run in base-load or mid-merit mode.

A new, less carbon-intensive mix emerges

Figures 9 and 10 give an overview of the development of

electricity generation in the EU-27 between 1980 and 2008, as

well as indications of future expected production. While nuclear

production has stabilised in the last decade, fossil-fuel red and

RES generation have increased their respective shares in 2008.

Thus, between 2000 and 2008, conventional thermal production

increased by just 13 % to 1,729 TWh, while RES generation

mainly driven by wind experienced a real boom, increasing by

240 % to reach 226 TWh. Carbon-free electricity thus accounted

for roughly 46 % of total generation in 2008.

According to the assumptions of EURELECTRIC members (Figure

10 ), low-carbon generation sources such as RES, hydro and

nuclear will constitute the major generation source by 2020,

delivering more than 2,000 TWh, compared to 1,692 TWh from

fossil fuels (53 % vs. 46 %). Low-carbon generation sources

will continue to dominate the generation mix thereafter, thanks

to a major increase of RES in electricity generation, as well as

an increase in nuclear production. The data for 2030 show

low-carbon electricity generation reaching some 60 % of total

electricity production.

3 The capacity factor of a power plant is the ratio of the actual electricity produced in a given period to the hypothetical maximum possible,

i.e. its output if it had continuously operated at full nameplate capacity.

Figure 9: Installed capacity vs. electricity generation

Figure 10: Evolution of electricity production in the EU-27

Hydro

11%

Hydro

17%

Electricity Generation in 2008

Nuclear

28%

Fossil Fuel Fire

53%

Fossil Fuel Fired

56%

Other Renewables7%

Not Specified

1%

Installed Capacity in 2008

Nuclear

16%

Other Renewables

11%

Not Specified

0%

Hydro10%

Hydro9%

Electricity Production 2020 (TWh)

Nuclear26%

Conventional Thermal46%


Other Res17%

Not Specified1%

Electricity Production 2030 (TWh)

Nuclear29%

Other Res22%

Not Specified0%


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Capacity by technology: use them all

A closer look at generation capacity by technology clearly

demonstrates that the European electricity mix builds on a wide

variety of energy sources and is set to remain highly diversied

(see Figure11).

RES capacity takes off

The advent of new RES, with hydro retaining an important

share, is conrmed as a major trend. Between 1980 and 2008,

RES capacity (mainly wind, solar and biomass) increased

almost 60 times from about 1,600 MW to more than 93,000 MW.

This trend is forecast to continue up to 2030, when RES

generation capacity will have increased to 370,400 MW. As

the major renewable energy source in the EU-27, hydropower

accounted for roughly 142,000 MW of installed capacity in

2008 compared to 99,000 MW in 1980. Although hydropower

capacity is projected to only marginally increase by 2030,

its role will remain crucial: in certain EU areas it will provide

an important back-up for intermittent renewable generation

such as wind and solar power.

Nuclear power retains its importance

Nuclear energy, which some years ago was expected to be

phased out in some major EU member states, is assumed

to remain a major generation source, representing slightly

over a third of the capacity provided by fossil fuels in 2030.

Although the current trend of growing nuclear capacity is set

to continue at a slower pace in the next 20 years, nuclear will

represent nearly three times the generation capacity available

in 2030 compared to 1980 (154,700 MW against 42,400 MW).

Power Statistics 2010 takes into account the latest policy

developments so that the new assumptions for nuclear arereected in the tables: in Sweden, as in Germany, the phase-

out period of nuclear energy has been extended, with an

average lifetime extension in Germany of 12 years. Further,

Poland and Italy are assumed to build up nuclear capacity

by 2030.4

Figure 11: Evolution of installed capacity in the EU-27in 2020

and2030

Hydro15%

Installed Capacity 2020 (MW)

Nuclear13%


Other Res27%

Not Specified1%

Hydro14%

Other Res33%


Installed Capacity 2030 (MW)

Nuclear14%

Not Specified0%

4 It must be noted here that Italian forecasts have been taken from EURELECTRICs Power Choices report, which stipulated that nuclear power

re-enters the Italian generation mix by 2020 and then increases at constant pace throughout the following decade.


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The climate dimension: towards carbon-free electricity

Fossil fuel capacities remain, but a strong shift towards carbon

reduction can be witnessed.

Natural gas has been displacing oil and coal in the last

decades, creating the so-called dash-for-gas. Thanks to the

lower carbon content of the primary fuel, shorter construction

lead-times and lower capital costs, a major deployment of

combined cycle gas turbine plants (CCGTs) has been witnessed

throughout the continent, with capacity of gas-dependent

electricity increasing nearly fourfold from 37,266 MW in 1980

to 138,745 MW in 2008. Natural gas is assumed to further

increase in the upcoming decades, albeit at a slower pace.

As back-up capacity, it will play a fundamental role in exibly

complementing the integration of intermittent renewables

electricity into the EU electricity market.

Oil-based electricity generation fell by more than 70 % between

1980 and 2008. Nevertheless, oil-red generating units are

still used for peaking purposes, i.e. in times of high electricity

demand. Furthermore, some countries, especially small island

systems such as Malta and Cyprus, still rely on oil to generate

their electricity, although a shift towards gas is envisaged.

Among solids, coal and lignite have experienced different

evolution patterns. Despite maintaining or even increasing

its absolute volumes, hard coal saw its shares plunge from

44 % to 30 % of total fossil fuel fired production between

1980 and 2008. By contrast, the use of lignite has been

growing steadily both in absolute and in relative terms (f rom

16 % in 1980 to 18 % in 2008 ), driven by its abundance in

some EU countries.

According to EURELECTRICs Power Choices Study carbon

capture and storage (CCS) will inuence the future use ofcoal and gas in the generation mix, provided the technology

reaches maturity and commercial roll-out starts in the period

2020-2025.

Figure 12: Generating capacity in the EU-27in 2009compared

to 2008 and2007(MW)

2007 2008 2009 2008/2007 2009/2008

Nuclear 132,855 132,882 132,876 27 -6

Conventional Thermal 436,464 446,936 456,967 10,472 10,031

Hydro 140,894 141,788 142,617 893 829

Other RES 77,983 93,342 107,491 15,359 14,149

of which Wind 55,394 63,611 74,335 8,217 10,724

Total 791,233 815,515 841,732 24,282 26,217

New installed capacities: RES dominates

As shown in Figure 12, some 25 GW of new capacity have been

added between 2007 and 2008, the majority of which (around60 %) was RES. Looking at the conventional eet, numbers

seem to suggest that the majority of new fossil-fuelled plants

are red with natural gas rather than coal and oil. The reversal

of phasing out and nuclear lifetime extension in countries like

Sweden and Germany add, mathematically, new capacities,

although without setting up new plants. Preliminary statisticsconrm that all generation sources increased their capacity

in 2009 compared to 2008, with RES increasing from

93,342 MW to 107,491 MW. Wind made up over two thirds of

total installed RES capacity.


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Increasing foreseeable not available capacity,the need for generation investment and for abalanced generation portfolio

A look at capacity balances across the EU reveals an increase in

total foreseeable not available capacity in nearly all EU member

states. Spain for example witnessed an increase from 20,902

MW in 2007 to 24,131 MW in 2008. Foreseeable not available

capacity is set to increase to 45,825 MW in 2020 and to 62,280

MW in 2030. Similar trends can be witnessed in many other

countries.

There are two reasons for this trend: on the one hand, the ageing

generation park and related maintenance requirements are

responsible for the current slight increase in foreseeable not

available capacity. There is an urgent need to get investmentconditions right to renew the generation park in many European

countries. On the other hand, the non-dispatchable character of

intermittent RES will accentuate this trend in the future. This fact

underlines the need to improve the interaction between different

generation sources, as well as the need to use them all to offset

intermittency with non-intermittent conventional sources.

Power balances and the need for a single

European electricity market

Unequal net transfer capacities conrmthe need for a European electricity market

A countrys net transfer capacity refers to the capacity available

for exports at peak times. Based on available data, the situation

of EU member states is quite diverse. Signicant available net

transfer capacities exist in Europes northern and Alpine regions,

for example in Sweden or Switzerland (8,570 MW and 6,000 MW

respectively in 2008 ). National scenarios foresee an important

increase especially between 2020 and 2030 in countries like

Spain. More interconnections and a more integrated European

electricity market are the best answers to making the most of

existing capacities across Europe.


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Increasing electricity generation,decreasing fuel consumption

Electricity generation vs. fuel consumption

Power Statistics 2010 shows that, while overall electricity

generation in the EU will substantially increase between 1980

and 2030 (from 1,835 TWh to 4,076 TWh), fuel consumption for

electricity generation is expected to remain stable at 1980 levels

(13,406.6 PJ in 1980 compared to 13,692.8 PJ in 2030)5. This

is mainly due to a decreasing share of solid fuels in electricity

generation, as well as to increasing gas consumption. Figure 13

clearly shows the de-coupling of electricity generation and fuel

consumption for the period 1980-2030.

Power Statistics 2010 also shows that fossil fuels are being used

more efciently to generate electricity. This efciency is projectedto improve further at a comparable rate to the last ten years.

For conventional power plants, efciency is the ratio between

primary energy input and the electricity actually delivered. The

commissioning of new, more efcient stations, coupled with the

decommissioning of older power stations with low efciency

levels, is already driving down relative fuel consumption in

thermal generation. It is set to decrease even further with the

commercial roll-out of new generating technologies.

Environment

Decoupling of electricity generationand electricity-related emissions

CO2

emissions: towards carbon neutrality

While electricity generation has increased, a decoupling of

generation from CO2

emissions can be observed (see Figure 14).

In fact, Power Statistics 2010 shows that absolute electricity-

related CO2

emissions in the EU-27 have only increased slightly

between 1980 and 2008 (from 1,027 GT CO2

in 1980 to 1,206 GT

in 2008) and will drop signicantly to 937 GT CO2

by 2030.

5 The gures do not take into account all EU member states.

Figure 13: Evolution of electricity generation vs. fuel

consumption in the EU-27 (1990 baseline)

Figure 14: Evolution of electricity generation and CO2

emissions

in the EU-27 (1990 baseline)

Electricity generation & CO2 emissions (1990 baseline)

120100

80

60

40

20

0

200

180

160

140

1980 200820071990 2000 2010 2020 2030

%o

f1990Va

lue

Electricity Generation

Electricity-related CO2 Emissions

CO2 Specific Emissions

300

200

100

0

600

500

400

1980 200820071990 2000 2010 2020 2030

g/kWh

Electricity Generation & Fuel Consumptionfor electricity generation (1990 baseline)

100

50

0

200

150

1980 200820071990 2000 2010 2020 2030

%o

f1990V

alue


Total Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation

Power Statistics 2010 also shows that signicant steps have

been taken in reducing carbon intensity, even though electricity

generation still relies heavily on thermal plants. Between 1980

and 2008, the European electricity sector reduced its CO2

specic emissions from 559.7 g/kWh to 374.6 g/kWh. By 2030,emissions will have fallen to 230 g/kWh (see Figure 15).

Figure 15: Evolution of CO2

specic emissions in the EU-27


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Air pollutants: reducing SO2

and NOx

The electricity industry is also on track towards a major reduction

of its SO2

and NOx emissions by 2030. SO2

emissions have been

reduced by 80 % between 1980 and 2008, falling from 17,000

kt to 3,500 kt in the same period. Trends for NOx

emissions are

similar: they have been reduced by 60 % between 1980 and

2008, falling from 3,740 kt to 1,500 kt. Figure 16 clearly shows a

de-coupling of electricity production and SO2

and NOx

emissions

for the period 1980-2008.

SO2

and NOx

specic emissions have also been signicantly

reduced since 1980. SO2

specic emissions fell from 9.3 g/kWh

in 1980 to 1.1 g/kWh in 2008, whereas NOx

specic emissions

decreased from 2 g/kWh in 1980 to 0.5 g/kWh in 2008 (see

Figure 17).

Figure 16: Evolution of electricity generation and SO2

and NOx

emissions in the EU-27 (1990 baseline)

Figure17: Evolution of SO2

and NOx

specic emissions in the EU-27

SO2

Specific Emissions

4

2

0

1

3

5

7

9

10

8

6

1980 20071990 2000 2008

g/kWh

NOx Specific Emissions

1.2

0.6

0

0.3

0.9

1.5

2.1

2.4

1.8

1980 20071990 2000 2008

g/kWh

Electricity Generation & SO2

and NOx

emissions(1990 baseline)

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

200

180

160

140

1980 200820071990 2000 2010 2020 2030

%o

f1990V

alue


Electricity-related NOx Emissions

Electricity-related SO2 Emissions


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Please address all enquiries relating to Power Statistics 2010 to: Giuseppe Lorubio [email protected] and

Charlotte Renaud [email protected]

The full report Power Statistics2010 is available free of charge for all EURELECTRIC members.

For non-members, please visit http://www.eurelectric.org/PowerStats 2010.

The data provided in Power Statistics2010 Synopsis Report are based on estimates provided by EURELECTRICs Networkof Experts on Statistics & Prospects. The gures may be considered as best engineering estimates and should be

regarded as possible future trajectories only. While EURELECTRIC has taken reasonable care in the preparation of this

report, no claims, expressed or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of its content. For any investment

activity, further detailed analysis is recommended.


20/20

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Belgium website: www.eurelectric.org Coverdesignbywww.generis.be/p

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Documents

Eurelectric Power Stats 2010 Synopsis