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Eugene S. TakleIowa State [email protected]
Midwest Weather Working Group
Indianapolis, IN7 October 2009
Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 31
2009 so far: 1
1988: 26
Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 13 1988:
10
2009 so far: 0
Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 13 1988:
10
2009 so far: 0
Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 13 1988:
10
2009 so far: 0
6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years
Ames Data
Des Moines Airport Data
Des Moines Airport Data
State-Wide Average Data
State-Wide Average Data
Cedar Rapids Data
“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “
Cedar Rapids Data
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
December-January-February Temperature Change
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999
4.0
3.5
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
June-July-August Temperature Change
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999
2.5
3.0
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
December-January-February Precipitation Change
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999
0.0
0.1
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
June-July-August Precipitation Change
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999
-0.1
0.0
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Change in Annual Cloud Cover
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999
Change in Annual Cloud Cover
-1.0
-1.5
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Change in Diurnal Temperature Range
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999
0.0
0.3
-0.3
Change in Diurnal Temperature Range
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Change in Evaporation
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999
0.2
0.1
Change in Evaporation
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Change in Soil Moisture
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
A1B Emission Scenario2080-2099 minus 1980-1999
-5
0
Change in Soil Moisture
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
*Estimated from IPCC reports
*Estimated from IPCC reports
*Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports
Waxman-Markey Bill Midwest activities relating to a
“national climate service” Question for Midwest Weather Working
Group
TITLE I—CLEAN ENERGY TITLE II—ENERGY EFFICIENCY TITLE III—REDUCING GLOBAL WARMING
POLLUTION TITLE IV—TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN
ENERGY ECONOMY TITLE VII—GLOBAL WARMING POLLUTION
REDUCTION PROGRAM TITLE VIII—ADDITIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS
STANDARDS
TITLE IV—TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY Subtitle E—Adapting to Climate Change
PART 1—DOMESTIC ADAPTATION: Subpart A—National Climate Change Adaptation Program
NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS.
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION SERVICES NATIONAL CLIMATE SERVICE
Midwest regional office of the National Weather Service has been exploring climate needs assessment for the Midwest (Doug Kluck)
Corn and Climate Workshop (Ames, 2008) Regional Climate Services Planning Meeting
for Agriculture, September 9-10, 2009 – Champaign/Urbana, IL Pilot project (Steve Hilberg, Dev Niyogi, Gene
Takle) on agriculture needs assessment Calendar for weather-driven agriculture decsions
Don’t ask “what climate information do you need and when do you need it?”
Rather, “what do you do and when do you do it?”
When (month) are decisions made? What is the lead time related to that decision?
2 hours (weather forecast) 2 days (weather forecast) 2 weeks (ensemble climate simulation) 2 months (ensemble climate simulation) 6 months (ensemble climate simulation) 2 years (ensemble climate simulation)
What decision tools that you currently use can be driven by hourly values of future meteorological or soil variables?
When (month) are these decisions made? What lead time is needed for these weather
conditions?