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Cereal Advisory Committee20/06/2008
EU & World cereal market situation
CER(08)4186
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 2
EU Export Commitments
0
5
10
15
20
25
CommonWheat
Durum Wheat Barley+Malt total
Mt
Export 2005/2006 Export 2006/2007 Export 2007/2008
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 3
EU Import Commitments
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
CommonWheat
DurumWheat
Maize Sorghum total
Mt
Import 2005/2006 Import 2006/2007 Import 2007/2008
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 4
EU Wheat weekly imp/exp commitments since 01/07/2007
2932
279
385
-550
-450
-350
-250
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
1000
t
Imports
Exports
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 5
EU Barley weekly imp/exp commitments
7
11
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
1000
t
Exports
Imports
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 6
EU Maize and sorghum weekly import commitments
442 92
8861
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Week 1
Week 3
Week 5
Week 7
Week 9
Week 1
1Wee
k 13
Week 1
5Wee
k 17
Week 1
9Wee
k 21
Week 2
3Wee
k 25
Week 2
7Wee
k 29
Week 3
1Wee
k 33
Week 3
5Wee
k 37
Week 3
9Wee
k 41
Week 4
3Wee
k 45
Week 4
7Wee
k 49
Week 5
1
1000
t
Maize Sorghum
Imports
Maize:
Sorghum:
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 7
EU Durum wheat weekly import commitments
1
60
33
11
30
58
22
38
100
61
32
4850
35
53
37
62
39
57
6
103
91
13
40
93
1319
9591
19129
4
4436
48
25
1107
28
53
17
29
6
27
5650
2
1713
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Week 1
Week 3
Week 5
Week 7
Week 9
Week 1
1Wee
k 13
Week 1
5Wee
k 17
Week 1
9Wee
k 21
Week 2
3Wee
k 25
Week 2
7Wee
k 29
Week 3
1Wee
k 33
Week 3
5Wee
k 37
Week 3
9Wee
k 41
Week 4
3Wee
k 45
Week 4
7Wee
k 49
Week 5
1
1000
t
Imports
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 8
EU 27 Balance
5,1
11,6
-8,5
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
total
Mt
BALANCE 2005/2006 BALANCE 2006/2007 BALANCE 2007/2008
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 9
EU 27 Balance sheetEU-27 Cereals balance sheet:Marketing year: 2007/2008
Common (Mio t)wheat Barley Durum Maize Rye Sorghum Oats Triticale Others EUR 27
Beginning stocks (01.07.2007)Market 19,2 11,8 1,0 13,6 0,1 0,5 0,2 2,3 2,0 50,7Intervention 0,2 0,1 0,0 2,2 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 2,5
Total 19,4 11,9 1,0 15,8 0,2 0,5 0,2 2,3 2,0 53,2Usable production 111,3 57,3 8,1 47,7 7,4 0,4 8,7 9,4 5,4 255,9Import 4,7 0,3 2,0 14,5 0,1 5,5 0,0 0,0 0,2 27,3TOTAL AVAILABILITIES 135,4 69,4 11,1 78,0 7,7 6,5 8,9 11,7 7,6 336,3USE - Human 46,1 0,4 8,4 3,7 3,0 0,2 1,4 0,1 0,0 63,2 - Seed 5,4 2,9 0,9 0,4 0,7 0,0 0,6 0,5 0,4 11,7 - Industrial 7,5 9,3 0,1 5,3 0,8 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,1 23,3
o.w. bioethanol/biofuel 1,1 0,5 0,3 0,1 2,0 -Ultra peripheral islands 0,3 0,2 0,0 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,9 - Animal feed 49,4 38,3 0,4 53,5 2,7 5,8 6,0 10,0 4,9 171,0TOTAL USE 108,7 51,0 9,8 63,3 7,1 6,0 8,2 10,5 5,4 270,0Solde disponible 26,7 18,4 1,3 14,7 0,6 0,5 0,7 1,2 2,2 66,3Export (1) 11,0 6,5 0,9 1,5 0,1 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 20,2End stocks (30.06.2008)
Market 15,7 11,9 0,4 13,2 0,5 0,5 0,5 1,2 2,2 46,1Intervention 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
Total 15,7 11,9 0,4 13,2 0,5 0,5 0,5 1,2 2,2 46,1Change in stocks -3,6 0,0 -0,6 -2,6 0,3 0,0 0,3 -1,1 0,2 -7,1Change in public stocks -0,2 -0,1 0,0 -2,2 -0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 -2,5
(1) Grains equivalent. *) Maize includes processed products and animal feedESTIMATED EXPORT QUANTITIES 2007/08
11,9 Mio t8,3 Mio t
juin-08
Wheat incl. durumCoarse grains
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 10
EU 27 Cereal Area
56,9
21,9
2,9
13,7
8
2,7 3
59,9
8,8
3,12,83,1
14,2
23,2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
TOTAL Softw heat
Durumw heat
Barley Maize Rye Oats
Mio
ha
2007 2008
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 11
2008Agro-meteo conditions
Generally positive
Exceptionally high temperatures at the beginning of May in northern latitudes and at the end in southern Europe. Beneficial rain in Iberian Peninsula, Tunisia and Algeria.
Unseasonal amount and unusual spatial distribution of rain: – very abundant in Iberian Peninsula and western
Mediterranean, Ukraine and Russia; – very scarce in northern latitudes and central and
eastern Mediterranean.
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 12
2008Agro-meteo conditions
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 13
Germany, the Netherlands, Baltic States – revised down due to dry conditions
Spain, Portugal, Hungary - revised up due to favorable conditions
Other countries: Good potential from previous forecast kept
2008 Yield forecasts
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 14
EU 27 Cereal Production
257,7
8,2
57,7
7,6
295,1
9,18,8
47,8
111,8
58,3
130,6
63,5
9,3 8,6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
TOTAL Softw heat
Durumw heat
Barley Maize Rye Oats
Mt
2007 2008
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 15
USDA - June ReportWheat Production
13,9
119
1616,649,4
13,1
610,8
56,314,521
140
662,9
14245466
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
World Prod
uctio
n
USA
Austra
lia
Russia
Ukraine
Kazak
hstan
Argenti
na EU
Mt
2007 2008
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 16
USDA - June Report
Source: USDA
Wheat
124,1 115,1 132,1
38,3 32,2 37,2
662,9
646,0
610,8592,0
617,1622,2
0,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09US Marketing Year
MM
T
540,0
560,0
580,0
600,0
620,0
640,0
660,0
680,0
World Ending Stocksof which 5 major exportersWorld ProductionWorld Consumption
MM
T
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 17
USDA - June ReportMaize Production
332
789,8
21,5 587,4
48,4
298
5723,5 10
775,3
56,1
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
WorldProduction
USA Argentine Brazil EU Ukraine
Mt
2007 2008
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 18
Corn
105,5 121,0103,3
33,1 36,417,1
775,3
793,0789,8
706,7
728,0
778,9
0,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09US Marketing Year
MM
T
660,0
680,0
700,0
720,0
740,0
760,0
780,0
800,0
World Ending Stocksof which USWorld ProductionWorld Consumption
MM
T
USDA - June Report
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 19
Wheat 2005/06 2006/072007/08
(est)2008/09
(forecast)Production 620 593 604 650Trade 110 110 105 109Consumption 624 611 612 632Stocks 137 120 112 1315 major exporters 59 39 27 38
Maize 2005/06 2006/072007/08
(est)2008/09
(forecast)Production 696 702 777 763Trade 79 87 100 90Consumption 699 721 773 786Stocks 133 114 118 95
IGC - May Report
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 20
Source: IGC
US Maize Use 2008/09
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 21
Durum Wheat
37,535,7 34,8
38,5
76,37,97,3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2005 2006 2007 2008
MT
World Total Production
World Total Imports
Source: IGC
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 22
Source: IGC
Durum Wheat SuppliesUS - Canada - EU
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 23
Wheat export prices
285378444
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Week 0
Week 3
Week 6
Week 9
Week 1
2Wee
k 15
Week 1
8Wee
k 21
Week 2
4Wee
k 27
Week 3
0Wee
k 33
Week 3
6Wee
k 39
Week 4
2Wee
k 45
Week 4
8Wee
k 51
Week 2
Week 5
Week 8
Week 1
1Wee
k 14
Week 1
7Wee
k 20
Week 2
3
$/t
US SRW FOB GulfUS HRW FOB GulfArgentinaAustralia ASW Canada CWRS 13.5% St Law
Source: IGC
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 24
Source: IGC
US Export prices
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 25
EU Wheat prices since 1/1/2007
213
215
185
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Wee
k 1
Wee
k 3
Wee
k 5
Wee
k 7
Wee
k 9
Wee
k 11
Wee
k 13
Wee
k 15
Wee
k 17
Wee
k 19
Wee
k 21
Wee
k 23
Wee
k 25
Wee
k 27
Wee
k 29
Wee
k 31
Wee
k 33
Wee
k 35
Wee
k 37
Wee
k 39
Wee
k 41
Wee
k 43
Wee
k 45
Wee
k 47
Wee
k 49
Wee
k 51
Wee
k 1
Wee
k 3
Wee
k 5
Wee
k 7
Wee
k 10
Wee
k 12
Wee
k 14
Wee
k 16
Wee
k 18
Wee
k 20
Wee
k 22
Wee
k 24
€/t
Dlvd Rouen (11-12, 5%protein)Fob Hamburg (B)
UK feed FOB
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 26
Comparison EU prices
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
Wee
k 1
Wee
k 3
Wee
k 5
Wee
k 7
Wee
k 9
Wee
k 11
Wee
k 13
Wee
k 15
Wee
k 17
Wee
k 19
Wee
k 21
Wee
k 23
Wee
k 25
Wee
k 27
Wee
k 29
Wee
k 31
Wee
k 33
Wee
k 35
Wee
k 37
Wee
k 39
Wee
k 41
Wee
k 43
Wee
k 45
Wee
k 47
Wee
k 49
Wee
k 51
Wee
k 1
Wee
k 3
Wee
k 5
Wee
k 7
Wee
k 10
Wee
k 12
Wee
k 14
Wee
k 16
Wee
k 18
Wee
k 20
Wee
k 22
Wee
k 24
€/t
Comparison EU wheat price (blue) and maize price (pink)
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 27
Durum WheatPrices in SP and IT
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Juil
Aout
Sept Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Fev
Mar
Avri
Mai
Juin
Juil
Aout
Sept Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Fev
Mar
Avri
Mai
Juin
Juil
Aout
Sept Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Fev
Mar
Avri
Mai
Juin
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
Euro
/T
ItalySpain
Cereals Advisory Committee , Brussels, 20/06/2008 28
Thank you for your attention