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Chair of Energy Economics and Public Sector Management
EU - MENA RegGrid 2050
A “Decentral” Approach for the
Integration of Large-Scale Renewables
(LRES)
Christian von Hirschhausen, Florian Leuthold, Jonas Egerer,
Robert Wand, et al.
Enerday, TU Dresden April 16, 2010
- 2 -
Agenda
1. Introduction and Background
2. Approach
3. Results
a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration
b) Influence of Scandinavia
4. Conclusion
5. References
- 3 -
5 Theses
• New infrastructure emerges gradually from a nucleus or previous
infrastructure, and they do not appear from nowhere; thus, any SuperGrid,
too, will develop gradually from the existing grid.
• Regional, multi-source Super Grids are more likely to go forward than
continental, single source projects.
• The technical challenges of a large-scale renewables Super Grid are
challenging (HVDC technology, CSP, wind turbines), but the more critical
issues of implementation are regulatory and political design.
• The Desertec Super Grid project seems to have chosen the wrong technical
design, and it has substantial flaws of the institutional design.
• The EU-MENA RegGrid 2050 is a more realistic approach to achieving
similar LRES objectives; however, substantial institutional, and financial
obstacles remain.
- 4 -
Classification of Different Approaches for a Super Grid
Geographic Approach
Continental Regional
Source
Single
• Zweibel et al. (2009):
Grand Solar Plan
• Trieb et al. (2009):
Characterisation of Solar
Electricity Import Corridors
from MENA to Europe
-
Multiple
• Trieb et al. (2006):
Trans-Mediterranean
Interconnection for
Concentrating Solar Power
• AWEA, SEIA (2009)
Green Power
Superhighways
• Krapels et al. (2009):
Integrating 200,000 MW of
RES into the US power grid
• Hirschhausen et al. (2009):
EEA- MENA RegGrid 2050
Integration of Large-Scale
Renewables
- 5 -
The DESERTEC Project
• Concept based on Med-CSP (Trieb et al., 2005), Trans-CSP (Trieb et al., 2006),
• Recent study (Trieb et al., 2009) examines possible HVDC corridors from MENA
for EU wide integration of CSP
• Some unaddressed issues:
- No incentives to connect point to point HVDC connections to the right nodes
(price signals, multiple TSOs involved, national renewable targets)
- Special characteristics of electricity networks (loop flows, constraints) and
fluctuation of renewable generation not addressed
- Interdependency of Desertec approach with other developments not
sufficiently addressed (offshore-wind in north sea, balancing power, etc.)
Source: Trieb et al. (2009)
- 6 -
Agenda
1. Introduction and Background
2. Approach
3. Results
a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration
b) Influence of Scandinavia
4. Conclusion
5. References
- 7 -
Challenge: Integrated Economic Engineering Approach
• Optimization problem:
• Renewable energy:
• Engineering:
• Raised questions:
Maximizing total welfare for EU30+
with a DC load flow model.
Interaction of LS hydro, wind and solar electricity
generation.
Economic assessing of HVDC integration for MENA
CSP generation to EU30+.
What should the process of CSP integration look
like?
Does a stronger integration of the Scandinavian
market change the results?
- 8 -
Original ELMOD
• Model of the Western / Central European UCTE network with 2120 nodes and 3243 lines
- 9 -
• Model of the EU30+ network with 105 zones and 1230 lines
• 105 demand and generation nodes
• Simplified AC grid
• Reference year with 24 states
Season
Daytime
Demand
Wind generation
• Seasonal storage (reservoirs)
• Objective: Welfare maximization
for the entire system
Adjusted ELMOD
- 10 -
• Three export nodes in the MENA region (Morocco, Tunisia and Middle East)
• Possible HVDC connection to 30 demand centers in the EU30+
• Line costs according DLR cost-distance images (Trieb et al., 2009) - 4GW cables
Model obtains the optimal HVDC connections for 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050
Welfare Optimizing HVDC Expansion from MENA
Evaluation of the HVDC expansion path for CSP integration.
- 11 -
• Demand increase to 4.200 TWh/yr in 2050
• Gradual decrease of fossil fuels in the electricity sector due to increasing generation capacities of RES
• Exogenous CSP generation expansion
• CO2-price 2050: 100 €/t-CO2
• Escalation rates fuel prices:
• Oil and gas: 2.5 %/yr
• Coal: 1.0 %/yr
Assumptions
- 12 -
Agenda
1. Introduction and Background
2. Approach
3. Results
a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration
b) Influence of Scandinavia
4. Conclusion
5. References
- 13 -
HVDC Expansion for CSP integration
2020 2030 2040 2050
Morocco 1 1.9GW 2 7.8GW 5 18.5GW 9 32.7GW
Tunisia 1 1.4GW 4 5.7GW 4 13.4GW 6 23.6GW
Middle East 1 3.5GW 4 14.4GW 9 33.9GW 15 57.5GW
• Expansion based on
welfare maximization:
Electricity prices
Transmission costs
Grid congestions
Demand
• CSP profitable in 2030
• Calculated
transmission costs
of about 1 cent/kWh
• Additional gains in total
welfare
- 14 -
Investment Analysis CSP MENA
• Generation: 425 billion €
• Transmission: 55 billion €
• Total Investment: 480 billion €
• Starting in the early 2030th, CSP from the MENA region becomes competitive on
the European electricity market.
Investments in pilot projects and large scale CSP in MENA before 2030 has to be
financially supported
In addition to export capacity, capacity building for MENA domestic markets is of high
importance
Billion €
CSP Investment Transmission Investment
- 15 -
Influence of Scandinavia
• Evaluation of the integration of the Scandinavian market and continental Europe/
the UK
• Additional exogenous HVDC connections:
- Integration of Scandinavian reservoirs
- Balancing of wind power
- Shift in electricity prices
Change in the HVDC expansion and profitability for CSP?
- 16 -
• Expanded inter-connection of the markets shifts prices
- Price increase for Scandinavia of 4 cent/kWh
- Price decrease for rest of Europe 0.5 - 1.0 cent/kWh
• No influence on HVDC corridors before 2050
• CSP profitability delayed due to lower prices
also in southern Europe
• Welfare increase outweighs costs of
transmission investment in inter-connections
Influence of Scandinavia
[cent/kWh]
Northern zones
Southern zones
Integration of Scandinavia influences CSP integration.
Price difference through
better market integration:
- 17 -
Agenda
1. Introduction and Background
2. Approach
3. Results
a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration
b) Influence of Scandinavia
4. Conclusion
5. References
- 18 -
Conclusion
• Transmission
- HVDC connections for CSP integrations to closer markets (southern Europe)
- Existence of alternative large scale renewable energy sources other than CSP
avert integration in CSP supply, e.g. regions with high shares of wind or hydro
power are not supplied
• Profitability
- Dependent on scenarios (2030 reasonable for increasing CO2 prices)
- Possible delay in case of strong integration of the Scandinavian market (price
shifts)
- Subsidies for CSP in some MENA countries with cheap natural gas availability
might be required after 2030
- 19 -
Agenda
1. Introduction and Background
2. Approach
3. Results
a) HVDC expansion for CSP integration
b) Influence of Scandinavia
4. Conclusion
5. References
- 20 -
References
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