EU Climate Security - E3G · Nick Mabey, E3G November 2013 EU Climate Security Understanding Core European Security Interests in Climate Risk Management

Nick Mabey, E3G

November 2013

EU Climate Security Understanding Core European Security Interests in Climate Risk Management

Presentation Outline

• One Reframing

• Three Critical Risks

• Two Opportunities

• A Reform Proposal

November 2013 E3G 2

Security Actors now routinely analyse Climate and Resource Security

• UK Ministry of Defense (2006) The DCDC strategic global trends programme, 2007-2036.

• CNA (2007) National Security and the Threat of Climate Change

• CFR (2007) Climate Change and National Security: An Agenda for Action

• RUSI (2008) Delivering Climate Security: International Responses to a Climate Changed World

• NIC (2008) NIA on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030.

• NIC (2008) Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World

• DOD (2010) Quadrennial Defense Review

• U.S. Joint Forces Command (2010) Joint Operating Environment

November 2013 E3G 3

E3G 4

1. Climate Change is a serious national security threat

2. Threat multiplier, particularly in the most fragile regions of the world

3. Will add to tensions even in stable regions

4. Climate change, energy security, and national security are related

A Security Sector Consensus?

CNA Report “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change”

November 2013

November 2013 E3G 5

Why Risk Management?

• E3G’s work on climate security showed the importance of considering the full range of climate scenarios for effective national security planning including economic reslience

• Most analysis uses median IPCC scenarios which do not reflect latest science on extreme impacts or analysis on instability

• Public debates unhelpfully equate uncertainty with inaction

• In contrast major security decisions made on far more uncertain data than climate policy; “what threat will Al Qaeda pose in 2050?”

Question: what would climate strategy look like if we treated it as seriously as nuclear proliferation?

The Climate Sensitivity Risk Landscape

November 2013 E3G 6

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (°C)

IPCC 2007

November 2013 E3G 7 7

Scenarios assuming agreement to keep global temperatures below 2C

Could breach tipping points even if mitigation policy is successful

High Climate Sensitivity

Low Climate Sensitivity

Failed Mitigation Policies

Successful Mitigation Policies

Collapse and

Competition

6-8C

Defensive

Adaptation

2-4C

Crash

Response

3-5C

Robust

Regime

2-3C

November 2013 E3G 8

The “ABC” Risk Management framework

• Aim to mitigate to stay below 2°C;

• Build and budget for resilience to 3-4°C;

• Contingency plan for capability to respond to 5-7°C

Elements same for all countries/actors but goals will differ; there is no universal risk management approach

November 2013 9

Contents

• From Climate Impacts to Climate Security Risk Management

• Key Security Risks to Europe

– Food systems

– Instability in North Africa and the Sahel

– Unravelling of global rules-based systems

• Key Resilience Opportunities

– Energy Efficiency

– Low Carbon trade and Investment Agreements

• Understanding European Interests

E3G

European Security Priorities

• Terrorism, organised crime and WMD proliferation

• Neighbourhood stability and security

• Energy and resource security

• International rules—based system (“effective multilateralism”)

Climate change impacts all areas

November 2013 E3G 10

E3G 11

EU Security Strategy

“ climate change is a "threat multiplier". Natural disasters, environmental degradation and competition for resources exacerbate conflict, especially in situations of poverty and population growth, with humanitarian, health, political and security consequences, including greater migration. Climate change can also lead to disputes over trade routes, maritime zones and resources previously inaccessible.”

EU SGHR Report on Implementation of the EU Security Strategy December 2008

November 2013 11 E3G

Scarcity, Climate and Food Prices 2030

E3G - EWI 12 Source: Oxfam 2012

Food Price Volatility 2030

E3G 13

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

% increase on 2010 baseline

% increase in

average world market export

price 2010-2030 (caused

by climate change and

other factors)

Additional %

increase in world market

export price in 2030 due to

weather related shock

NORTH AMERICA SHOCK:

140% additional price increase on 2030 baseline

177% increase

on 2010 baseline

by 2030

NORTH AMERICA SHOCK:

33% additional price increase

on 2030 baseline

120% increase

on 2010 baseline

by 2030

MAIZE

WHEAT

Source: Oxfam 2012

European Food Security Risks

• Most of major global food growing areas are highly vulnerable to climate change; trade system is not adapted to mange these shocks

• EU will experience higher frequency of years significant domestic production declines and high prices

• UK Government study has identified food prices and security as largest climate change risk even under 2C

• Current EU and national climate impact studies generally do not look at global supply chain risks and impacts. Industry is actively managing these risks.


E3G 15

The Reality of Climate Security

“The expanding Sahara desert had brought with it some cross-border problems … nomadic Fulani cattle herdsmen arming themselves with sophisticated assault rifles to confront local farming communities…

It was important that, from time to time, the Council evaluate the

dangers of such confrontations. The deadly competition over resources in Africa could not be glossed over; be they over water, shrinking grazing land or the inequitable distribution of oil.”

L.K. Christian, Representative of Ghana, UN Security Council debate on Energy and Climate Change, 17th April

2007

November 2013

Climate related hazard exposure in

North Africa

E3G 16 Source: Busby et al 2010

Increased Failure of the Cereal Growing

Season

2000

2050

17 E3G

Managing Neighbourhood Security

Underpinning the

MENA Democratic

Transition

Delivering Climate, Energy and Resource

Security

Sabrina Schultz, Nick Mabey, Taylor Dimsdale

and Luca Bergamaschi

E3G

February 2013


• Democratic transition in MENA remains vulnerable to economic shocks, including food and oil prices

• Even under best-case political and economic scenarios instability risks remain high in Egypt and Tunisia to 2025.

• Development strategies in the region need to focus more strongly on building economic and social resilience alongside economic growth.

• Resource efficient and low carbon investment opportunities offer potentially high-value stability interventions but require shifts in country and international partner priorities and practices

Geo-political Implications of a Failed Climate Regime

• Climate regime is unlikely to be politically sustainable if it fails to credibly limit climate change below 3C

• Vulnerable countries likely to take issue to UN Security Council and ICJ

• Major emitters will feel pressure to apply border measures on high carbon imports

• Likely to freeze trade and investment liberalisation, and undermine any future rules on managing resource trade

Failed climate regime would immediately impact Europe’s ability to shape other global regimes


November 2013 20

Contents



– Food systems





– Low Carbon Trade and Investment Agreements


E3G

Low Carbon = Greater Resilience to Price Shocks


Fossil import costs have risen by €300 bn per annum – usage is flat


EU and China are the two main markets for low carbon economy

• Installed capacity of non-fossil fuel energy to grow to 474 GW, 33% of the total capacity (322GW RES in EU)

• Investment of 2-3 trillion yuan (€230- €340 billion) in renewables over the next 10 years (EU €360- €450 billion)

• China’s energy saving and environmental protection sector is expected to be worth 4.5 trillion Yuan (€520 billion) by 2015

• €460 billion on “smart” grids (€100 bn needed in EU by 2020)

• Chinese urbanisation investment $8 trillion to 2020 – focus on efficient, clean and low carbon

European firms are leaders in all these sectors

But EU-China Relationship Dominated by Trade Tensions

• Inclusion of aviation in the EU Emission Trading System

• Export impacts of Chinese clean energy subsidies: light bulbs; solar case etc

• Domestic preferences in Chinese procurement rules

• IPR and technology sharing issues

• Export restrictions on rare earths

• Chinese suspicions of TTIP regulatory agenda

75% of EU Trade Defence Instruments Apply to RES


An EU-China Green Growth Area?

• “Early Harvest” of investment liberalisation in green sectors, with an emphasis on energy and urbanisation, in current EU investment negotiations with China.

• Maintaining or lowering tariffs on environmental goods and work together to pursue further global liberalisation of these sectors through APEC and the WTO.

• Creating mechanisms for “early warning” of possible EU-China trade disputes in green sectors where government support and policies will continue to play a strong role.

• Creating a joint “EU/China Green Growth Platform” involving the private sector which will work to suggest ways of better aligning and integrating EU and Chinese markets in green sectors, including around standards and future growth goals.


November 2013 25

Contents



– Food systems





– Low Carbon trade and Investment Agreements


E3G


Europe does not understand its core interests in controlling climate risk. Lack of institutions and balanced public debate

• Current climate debate under-emphasises scientific uncertainties and implications of extreme scenarios.

• There is no clear locus in governments – outside security community – to identify and manage full range of climate risks including external threats;

• “Climate makers” - fossil fuel using industries - dominate mitigation debate.“Climate takers” – business, cities, – are absent.

• Most European governments have domestic policy of no compensation for climate damage; privatises “loss and damage” and makes it “off balance sheet” for finance ministries

• European Parliament and EEA should have mandate/resources to monitor, debate and propose management of climate risk?

“How much climate risk are you prepared to take?”



Thank You!

Detailed discussion of risk management issues can be found in E3G’s “Degrees of Risk” Report

All materials can be found at www.e3g.org

http://www.e3g.org/

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EU Climate Security - E3G · Nick Mabey, E3G November 2013 EU Climate Security Understanding Core European Security Interests in Climate Risk Management