EU-Belarus Relations:Short on Carrots, Short on Sticks

Mitchell A OrensteinJohns Hopkins University SAIS

Dictatorship in the Heart of Europe

• How does Europe deal with a dictatorship in the heart of Europe?– Belarus has not progressed towards democracy,

market reform, membership in EU– Challenges vision of Europe whole and free

• Especially when the EU will not use the carrot of conditionality?

• EU policy defined by what it is not able to do

Argument

• Short on Carrots– Carrot of membership is off the table– EU tries to come up with other carrots

• Short on Sticks– EU has imposed sanctions– Has few other tools

• Problem Remains

The Carrot of Membership

• Membership conditionality has been EU’s number one tool – Influenced Central and Eastern Europe– Influenced the Balkans

• No agreement on offering membership to non-Baltic former Soviet states

• Europe beset by enlargement fatigue• Membership conditionality is out

Let’s Find Some New Carrots?

Berlusconi Visit to Belarus

Lukashenko at Vatican

New Carrots?

• Recognition– Lukashenko Visits Vatican, April 2009– Berlusconi Visits Belarus, December 2009– Grybauskaite Visits Belarus, October 2010

• Money– IMF Loan to Belarus, $3.6bn, January 2009 – EBRD Strategy for Belarus, December 2009– EU promises $4bn, November 2010

• With Political Conditionality

Charm Offensive Ends

After December 19th, 2010

• EU and US impose travel bans on top officials• Belarus currency collapses, May 2011– Needs infusion of cash– Negotiates with Russians, Chinese, Iranians, IMF

• Voices in EU urge new carrots– Bulgarian Foreign Minister Mladenov letter– Polish Prime Minister Tusk

• Belarus cancels participation in European Partnership Summit, supports Eurasian Union

Short on Carrots, Short on Sticks

• EU cannot foster political change in Belarus• Without carrot of EU membership,

relationship with Russia is more important• Sticks are symbolic, but not effective– More effective stick might be a ban on oil and gas

imports from Belarus

• EU continue to sway between engagement and isolation

Policy Options

• Strengthen Sanctions• Engagement• Bail Out Economy• Watch and Wait