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Chapter 1: Time for Review

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“They say that time changes things, but you actually have to change them yourself.”

–AndyWarhol

1.1 Introduction

1.1.1 TheHongKong2030:PlanningVisionandStrategy,or“HK2030Study”inshort,istaskedtoupdatetheTerritorialDevelopmentStrategyforHongKong,whichisdefinedas:

“along-termplanningstrategytoguidefuturedevelopmentandprovisionofstrategicinfrastructure,andtohelpimplementgovernmentpolicytargetsinaspatialform”.

Itrecommends,onthebasisofaseriesofassumptions,howourspatialenvironmentshouldrespondtovarioussocial,economicandenvironmentalneedsinthenext20to30years,takingHongKongtowardsasharedvision.

AnotherParadigmShift

1.1.2 Asmallterritorythoughitis,HongKongexperiencedrapiddevelopmentevolvingfromasmallfishingvillagetoametropolitancity.Ithassustainedthroughseveralroundsofeconomictransformationanddevelopedintooneofthemostvibrantanddynamiccitiesintheworld.

1.1.3 HongKong’ssuccessisaresultofmanyfactors,andperhapswithadashofluckaswell.ItoccupiesastrategiclocationattheheartofEast/SoutheastAsia,assumingtheroleasaregionaltransportationhubandthesoutherngatewayto

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China.MostpartsofEastAsiacanbereachedwithinfivehoursofflighttimefromHongKongandabout40MainlandcitiesarelinkedtoHongKongbyairservices.Ithasworld-classtransportationandtelecommunicationsinfrastructure,includingadeep-waterportwhichisoneofthebusiestandmostefficientintheworld.Ithasthemostopeneconomy,astablemonetarysystem,alowandsimpletaxregime,advancelegalandaccountingsystemsandanefficientpublicservice.Itspeopleareindustriousandstable.AllthesehavecontributedtothesuccessofHongKongasaninternationalbusinessandfinancialcentre,amajortradehubaswellasanimportanttransportationnodeinAsia.

1.1.4 However,onemightquestionwhetherthesestrengthscanhelpusmaintainourpositioninthenextdecadesinthelightofmountingglobalandregionalcompetition.Risingcommunityaspirationsforabetterqualityoflife,too,makeitnecessarytoadjustourgoalsandpriorities.Moreimportantly,gonearethedayswhenthesuccessofacityismeasuredbyitseconomicperformance.Today,thequestforsustainabledevelopmentcommandsamorevigilantattitudetowardsgrowthanddevelopment.Areweindeedontracktowardssustainabledevelopment?Dowehavethecapacity,andthewill,toadvanceinthisdirection?

PreparingfortheFuture,ShapingtheFuture1.1.5 Thebiggestchallenge

forlong-termplanningisprojectingafuturewhichisfullofuncertainties.ThirtyyearsagowhenHongKongwasfrequentlybrandedasoneof“Asia’sfourlittledragons”withdouble-digitgrowthratesforitsmanufacturedexports,fewmighthavepredictedthatonedayitwouldbesomuchde-industrialisedandtransformedalmostfullyintoaserviceseconomy.EvenfewercouldhaveguessedthatChinawouldbetheChinaoftoday,withHongKongardentlyreturningtoherembrace.However,weareatleastcertainthatfurtherchangesareforthcoming.Toprepareforthechanges,wehavetoplanahead,

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butuncertainty,particularlyinrelationtomanyexternalfactorswecannotcontrol,dictatesthatthekeytoagoodlong-termstrategyistomaintainflexibility.

1.1.6 Nevertheless,agoodstrategyisnotonlyaboutpassivelyrespondingtochangingcircumstances.Sureenough,weareinapositiontoactivelyshapeourfuture.TheHK2030Studywillaimtocontriveastrategythatisdrivenbyavision–avisionthatmakesHongKongabetterplaceinwhichtoliveandwork,undertheover-archinggoalforsustainabledevelopment–acitythatcouldrightfullyassumethetitleof“Asia’sworldcity”.

1.2 The Territorial Development Strategy

1.2.1 StrategicplanninginHongKonghascomealongwaysincethepreparationoftheAbercrombieReportinpost-war1948,respondingtotheneedsofrebuildingHongKongandtothemassiveinfluxesofmigrantsfromtheMainlandatthattime.Apartfromthis,pastreportsinclude:

• ColonyOutlinePlan1970• HongKongOutlinePlan1979• TerritorialDevelopmentStrategy(TDS)1984• RevisionsofTerritorialDevelopmentStrategy1986/1988• TerritorialDevelopmentStrategyReview1996

1.2.2 Theearlierplanstendedtoprovideonlybroad-brushplanningdirectionsanddidnotcontainquantifiablesubstantiationfortherecommendations.Majorrecommendationsincludetheintroductionofthezonalconcept,targetpopulationdensities,theprovisionofacomprehensivetransportnetwork(includingacross-harbourtunnel),andthedevelopmentofsatellitetownsintheNewTerritories.

1.2.3 TheformulationofTDSthuspresentedasignificantbreakthrough.Itfollowedasystematicapproachofsettingouttheobjectivesandissues;identifyingconstraints;generatingoptions;evaluatingtheoptionstoderiveapreferredoption;andtranslatingthepreferredoptionintodefinitiveplansandprogrammes.Sophisticationwasespeciallyintroducedintotheoptionevaluationandimpact

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assessmentprocesses,i.e.acomputer-based“landuse-transportoptimisationmodel”(LUTO)wasdevelopedtofacilitatetheformulationofthedevelopmentoptions,inrecognitionofthestrongrelationshipbetweenlanduseandtransportinfrastructureconstruction/utilisation,andtheneedtoreconcilethetwocomponents.Theoptionsweresubsequentlyevaluatedagainstasetofcriteriatogeneratethepreferredoption.However,environmentalfactors,whiletakeninconsiderationintheTDSstudy,formedonlyasmallpartoftheevaluationcriteriaandwereonlyinvolvedinthefinalphaseofthestrategyformulationprocess.

1.2.4 TworoundsofminorrevisionstotheTDSweremaderespectivelyin1986and1988,mainlytotakeonboardrecommendationsofanothertwoimportantstrategicplans,viz.thePortandAirportDevelopmentStrategyandtheMetroplan.

1.2.5 ThelastcomprehensivereviewoftheTDSwascompletedin1996andreleasedtothepublicinFebruary1998.Underthisreview,therewasamuchstrongeremphasisontheenvironmentalattributes,somuchsothatthe“landuse-transport”duobecamethe“landuse-transport-environment”trio.Whileitspredecessorstookintoaccountanumberofenvironmentalfactors,theTDSReviewwasthefirststrategiclanduseplanningstudyinHongKonginwhichtheenvironmentalbaselineconditionswerefullyassessedandaseparatePlanningandEnvironmentalAssessmentwascarriedout.

1.2.6 AnothermajorachievementoftheTDSReviewwastheintroductionofthesustainabledevelopmentconcept,whichhassubsequentlyledtoamajorstudyunderthetitle“SustainableDevelopmentforthe21stCentury”(SUSDEV21)conductedattheturnofthecentury.ThestudyaimedtoredefinetheconcepttosuitHongKong’scircumstancesanddevelopproposalsforauser-friendlysystemthatcouldprovideabasisbywhichpolicies,resourceallocation,planning,programmingandworksimplementationcouldbedeveloped,appliedandmonitoredinaco-ordinatedandsustainablemanner.

1.2.7 Despitethebigstepforward,thereisstillroomforimprovement.FromthelastreviewoftheTDS,lessonscanbelearntespeciallyinrevisingtheapproachfortheHK2030Study:

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(a) Oneofthemaincomplexitiesencounteredinthelastreviewwasthedisagreementonthepopulationassumptions.Wethereforeneedtostudymoreonthefundamentalfactorsofgrowthaswellascausestochangesincharacteristicsinordertoensurethatourpopulationassumptionswouldbeasplausibleandpersuasiveaspossible.

(b) Theworkingassumptionsadoptedinthelastreviewwereessentiallyderivedonthebasisofpasttrends.Hence,therecommendedstrategiesanddevelopmentprogrammeswerebasicallydrivenbydemand.Suchanapproachwasconsideredshortsightedandinsensitivetotheexternalenvironment,global/regionaldevelopmenttrendsandcommunityaspirations.Avisionaryapproachiscalledfor.

(c) Thetime-frameof20yearsinthelastreviewwasconsideredtooshortwithregardtothelongleadtimerequiredtoplanandimplementmajorplanningproposals,especiallywhenthestudyprocessitselfalreadytookupseveralyears.Alongertime-frameisthereforerequired.However,asthelevelofcertaintydiminisheswithtime,weneedtoensurethatthelengtheningoftime-framedoesnotgivetheimpressionthatweareinanybetterpositionto“foretell”thefuture.

(d) Inthepaststrategicplanningstudies,wehadbeenquiteconfidentabouttheassumptionthatHongKongwouldmaintainitsrapidpaceofpopulationexpansionandeconomicgrowth,whichwouldnecessitateacontinuousquestfordevelopableland.However,morerecenttrendsdonotpresentsuchaclear-cutpattern.Inviewoftheuncertaintiesoverthelong-termandtoprovidethenecessaryflexibility,thereisaneedtoformulatearobuststrategythatrespondswelltoawiderrangeofpossibilities,andtodeviseanescapemechanismthatallowsmakingdeviationstothestrategyincaseofunexpectedchanges.

(e) Althoughthreeroundsofextensiveconsultationwereundertakenforthelastreview,itappearsthatthepublicwasstillnottoosatisfiedwiththeapproach.Weneedtoreviewandrefinethe

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studymethodtoallowahigherlevelofengagementwiththecommunityinthestudyprocess.

1.3 New Circumstances Leading to a New Vision

1.3.1 HongKong’sreunificationwithourmotherlandin1997didnotonlysignifyahistoricmomentforanewera,butalsobroughtaboutmomentouschangestotheeconomicandsocialstructureofHongKong.Thesefactorshavestrategicimplicationsforthelong-termdevelopmentoftheSpecialAdministrativeRegion.

1.3.2 Theturnofthecenturydenotesaturnaroundinthepopulationgrowthtrends.Fordecades,HongKong’spopulationhasbeengrowingatatremendousspeed,averaginganadditionofaboutamillioneverytenyears.Latestforecastsindicatethatwemayachieveonlyabouthalfthatrateinthecoming30years.Theslowingdowninpopulationgrowthhasrelievedpressureforhousing,andtheneedtoidentifynewstrategicgrowthareas.Itallowsroomforustofocusmoreonthequalityofourlivingenvironment.Nevertheless,theageingofthepopulationcouldposenewchallengesintheyearsahead.

1.3.3 Economically,Asiaexperiencedthefinancialcrisisofthelate1990swhichrevealedHongKong’seconomicstrengthandrobustresilience.Amidstthefinancialcrisis,theHongKongeconomyexperiencedathoroughadjustmentwiththeGrossDomesticProductfallingby4.9%andunemploymentratesurgedfromalowof2.2%to4.7%.Fortunately,HongKonghasquicklyrecoveredfromthecrisis,thankstoarisingeconomicpowerbehindus.

1.3.4 WithChina’saccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganisation,hereconomyisgraduallytransformingintoamoreliberalisedandaccountableregime.Alongside,HongKongwillbeabletobenefitfromreducedtransactioncostandexpandedtradepotentials.Itisexpectedthatgreaterbusinessopportunitieswillbeavailableforparticularlythedistributivetrades,banking,finance,telecommunicationsandtourism

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sectors.Ontheotherhand,moreintensecompetitionintheMainlandmarketisalsoenvisaged.Thecontinuingstructuralchangesinoureconomyarenotoccurringonlyinthemanufacturingsector,butlow-orderservicesactivitiesarebeginningtorelocateacrosstheboundaryaswell.Toturnchallengesintoopportunities,HongKongneedstore-positionitselftosustainandexpanditsgatewayandhubfunctionforChina.

1.3.5 TherelaxationofthetouristpolicyintheMainlandhassignificantlyincreasedthenumberofMainlandtouristsvisitingHongKonginthelastfewyears.IthasresultedinspeedinguptheeconomicrecoveryofHongKong.Furthermore,theimplementationofCloserEconomicPartnershipAgreementwillfurtherenhanceoureconomicrelationshipwiththeMainland.

1.3.6 Thesocio-economiclinkagesbetweenHongKongandtheMainlandhavecontributedtothedramaticgrowthofcross-boundarymovementsofgoodsandpeople.Theseinteractionshaveraisedasurgeinbothpassengerandvehicletrips.Therapidgrowthincross-boundarymovementshasplacedtremendouspressureonourinfrastructureandwarrantsare-visitofthevariousscenariosdevelopedinthepreviousTDS.

1.3.7 Ournationalpolicies,includingChina’s11thFive-YearPlanratifiedbytheNationalPeople’sCongressinMarch2006,alsobroughtinnewdimensiontoouroutlookaboutHongKong’sfutureroleandhowweshouldre-positionourselvesinlightofthemanychangesoccurringintheMainland.

1.3.8 Onanotherfront,recommendationsoftheSUSDEV21StudyledtotheformationoftheCouncilforSustainableDevelopmentin2003whichistaskedtopromotesustainabilityinHongKong,inparticularthroughextensivepublicengagementprocessesanddebatesabouttheshapeofourfutureaswellaspriorities.TheCouncil’sfirstengagementprocessculminatedinthepromulgationoftheFirstSustainableDevelopmentStrategyforHongKongbytheGovernmentinMay2005,whichencompasses,amongotherthings,theimportantissueof“UrbanLivingSpace”.

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1.3.9 Anothermajoreventin2003wasourbattleagainstSevereAcuteRespiratorySyndrome(SARS)whichhasraisedwidecommunityawarenessoftheimportanceofpersonalhygieneanddemandedforbetterlivingenvironment.TheoutbreakofSARSatAmoyGardeninparticularpromptedarethinkonbuildingdesign(especiallyregardingdrainageandairventilation)andurbandesign.InAugust2003,theTeamCleanproposedasetofmeasurestogetherwithaneducationprogrammetomakeHongKongacleanerandmorehygieniccity,includingforexample,applicationofurbandesignguidelinestoimprovetheurbanenvironment.ManyofthesemeasureswillhaveimportantimplicationsfortheurbanlandscapeofHongKong.

1.3.10 Inconsiderationofthesenewcircumstances,HongKongneedstochartanewcoursetowardsacommonvisionforabetterandsustainablefuture.TheplanningstrategyformulatedundertheHK2030Studythusaimstoarticulateoursharedvisionandsetoutaroadmapforthatpartwhichrelatestophysicalplanningtowardsachievingthisvision.

1.4 A Guide to the Final Report

1.4.1 ThisFinalReportoftheHK2030Studyissetoutinsixteenchaptersinfoursections.Itconcentratesonwhatmattersmost,i.e.thebroadconceptsandstrategies,withdetailsincludedinsupportingtechnicalreportsandworkingpapers(Annex I).Thefirstsectionexplainstheplanningprocess,thesecondelaboratesontheplanningvisionandobjectives,thethirdoutlinestheplanningchoicesandthefourthsetsforththeplanningstrategyandnextsteps.

Section I : The Planning Process

Chapter 1 – Time for Review• Settingoutthebackgroundandreasonsforthereview.

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Chapter 2 – Doing it Right• Explainingtheprocessandapproachofthestudy.

Section II : Planning Vision and Future Challenges

Chapter 3 – A Vision for the Future • DescribingourvisionasAsia’sworldcity–acitythatisproudofits

outstandingachievementsforsustainabledevelopment.

Chapter 4 – The Desired Living Environment• Featuringanoverviewoftheattributesforalivingenvironment

whichHongKongpeopleaspireto.

Chapter 5 – The National Dimension• Lookingatdevelopmentatthenationallevelandtherelationship

betweenHongKongandtheMainland.

Chapter 6 – The Changing Economy• ExamininghowHongKong’seconomiclandscapehaschanged

overtimeandthefuturechallengesweface.

Chapter 7 – Population Dynamics• Addressingtheimplicationsoftheprojectedpopulationgrowthand

structuralchanges.

Chapter 8 – Defining Our Needs• Settingouttheworkingassumptionsandassessingrequirements

forvariouslandusesunderaReferenceScenario.

Section III : Planning Choices

Chapter 9 – Deriving Planning Choices• Describingtheplanningchoicesevolvedindifferentstagesofthe

Studyandoptionsforthespatialdevelopmentpattern.

Chapter 10 : Evaluation Framework • Highlightingtheframework,principlesandapproachof

assessmentforthedevelopmentoptionsintermsoftransport,

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Section IV : Planning Strategy and Next Steps

Chapter 11 – Preferred Development Option • Depictingthepreferredspatialdevelopmentpattern,includingnew

developmentareas,developmentdensities,transportnetworkandothermajorinfrastructure.

Chapter 12 – Impact Assessments• Summarisingresultsofvariousimpactassessmentsonthe

preferreddevelopmentoptionandrecommendingsuitablemitigatorymeasureswhereappropriate.

Chapter 13 – A Future Roadmap• Settingoutthestrategicplanningprinciplesandmeasures

pertainingtothethreebroaddirections.

Chapter 14 – What If….?• Postulatingalternativescenarioswithbroadassessmentsto

exploretheimplicationsoffuturesituationswhichdeviatefromwhatwenowexpect.

Chapter 15 – Response Mechanism• Recommendingamechanismtorespondtounexpected

circumstancesaswemoveahead.

Chapter 16 – Outstanding Issues and Conclusion• Outliningthenextstepstoaddressoutstandingissues.

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