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Ethno-Demographic Change and Nationalism in the UK and Beyond
[email protected]; twitter: @epkaufm; web: www.sneps.net
Numbers = Power?
• Demography usually affects politics indirectly, or in association with another factor
• Ethnonational change not about world population growth but:
• Uneven population growth across political, national and ethnic units
• Democracy and nationalism mean numbers=power• So more numbers = more power OR rising threat
perceptions
Figure 7
Source: Goldstone 2007
Ethno-demographic change and conflict
• To the extent ethnic groups and nations resemble biological ‘populations’ AND the link between ethnicity and territory has been sacralised by nationalism
• Where ethnic groups have fluid boundaries OR there is no sacralisation of ethnie-territory link, no conflict
Demography and Ethnic Conflict: Northern Ireland
• "The basic fear of Protestants in Northern Ireland is that they will be outbred by the Roman Catholics. It is as simple as that." - Terence O’ Neill, Unionist PM of Northern Ireland after resigning, 1969
Examples
• N. Ireland, Lebanon, Kosovo, Bosnia, Israel-Palestine, Cote D’Ivoire, Kenya, Uganda, Assam (India)
• Rise of Germany, Rise of USSR, Rise of Islam, Rise of China, Decline of the West….
• In a less violent way, demographic change can lead to increased threat perceptions, even in peaceful societies
Source: Duffy and Frere-Smith 2014: 8-9. Issues Index question: “What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?”. Issues Index base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home. Home Office statistics based on ‘Year ending’.
Pendle
Wigan
Bexley
Solihull
Derby
Tower HamletsAmber Valley
Epping Forest
South Tyneside
Burnley
Gateshead
Sandwell
Hastings
Barnsley
Barnsley
Epping Forest
Leeds
Sandwell
BirminghamWakefield
South TynesideSouth Tyneside
Nuneaton and BedworthBurnley
Rochdale
Burnley
Newcastle upon Tyne
BexleyManchester
Sandwell
Bexley
Walsall
GreenwichStoke-on-Trent
Hounslow
Newcastle upon Tyne
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Manchester
KirkleesRochford
Kirklees
Kirklees
Hillingdon
Bexley
Bexley
Sandwell
Merton
Liverpool
BirminghamWigan
Kirklees
Coventry
WolverhamptonBromley
Halton
Kirklees
Solihull
Cannock Chase
Hillingdon
Wakefield
Sandwell
Broxbourne
Coventry
Hounslow
LeedsKirklees
Birmingham
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Calderdale BarnetBirmingham
Sunderland
KirkleesGreenwich
Stockport
Hertsmere
RochdaleBarnsley
WolverhamptonMertonGreenwich
Harrogate
Pendle Barnsley
Wigan
Barnsley
Coventry
Bexley
Sandwell
South TynesideBasingstoke and Deane
Kirklees
Leeds
Greenwich
Bristol, City ofGateshead
Bexley
Kirklees
LiverpoolNewcastle upon Tyne
HarrogateRochford
Amber Valley
South Tyneside
Ealing
GatesheadSunderlandBarnsley
Doncaster
Stoke-on-Trent
Sandwell
Harrogate
Sandwell
BurnleyBirmingham
Sandwell
SunderlandSunderland
Rotherham
RochdaleDerby Kirklees
Ipswich
Redbridge
Gateshead
Sandwell
Greenwich
Gateshead
Sutton
South Tyneside
North Tyneside
Nuneaton and Bedworth
St. Helens
Calderdale
Bolton
Kirklees
Tower Hamlets
Wigan
Bristol, City ofRichmond upon Thames
Solihull
Greenwich
Bexley
Calderdale
Bradford
Islington
Barnsley
Kirklees
Sunderland
Leeds
Sandwell
Solihull
Birmingham
Pendle
GatesheadNewcastle upon TyneBristol, City of
Barnsley
KirkleesBolton
Solihull
Coventry
Camden
Solihull
Redbridge
BirminghamNewcastle upon Tyne
Wakefield
Gateshead
HertsmereSouth Tyneside
BradfordBarnsley
Epping ForestCroydon
Solihull
Wakefield
Coventry
Croydon
St. Helens
WakefieldWigan
Worcester
RedditchSandwell
Wakefield
Hounslow
Worcester
Basildon
Greenwich
BexleySandwell
SunderlandGateshead
Barnsley
Leeds
Newcastle upon Tyne
BassetlawNewcastle upon Tyne
Amber ValleyBarnsley
St. Helens
Kirklees
South TynesideLiverpool
Leeds
Cannock ChaseWakefield
Burnley
Wolverhampton
Kirklees
Nuneaton and BedworthBarnsley
Hounslow
St. HelensSt. Helens
Bradford
Burnley
Burnley
HaveringHastings
Bolton
Birmingham
Wakefield
Redbridge
Bristol, City ofSouth Tyneside
Brent
CalderdaleLiverpool
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Wakefield
Croydon
Gateshead
Stoke-on-Trent
Manchester
WiganWorcester
Bolton
Sutton
Newcastle upon TyneBirminghamWiganCarlisle
Stockport
Solihull
Sandwell
Bradford
Calderdale
Bradford
Sandwell
Merton
Pendle
Bristol, City of
Stoke-on-Trent
Nuneaton and BedworthBexley
Newcastle upon Tyne
Wigan
Solihull
Greenwich
Newcastle upon Tyne
Southwark
Amber Valley
Birmingham
Ealing
Crawley
LeedsNorth Tyneside
WiganWakefieldBristol, City ofBexley
Kirklees
Crawley
Kirklees
Leeds
Epping Forest
Bristol, City of
Solihull
Barnsley
Leeds
Sandwell
South Tyneside
CarlisleNewcastle upon Tyne
Solihull
BexleyBarnsley
Nuneaton and BedworthLeeds
BirminghamSutton
Bexley
LeedsSunderland
Bexley
Worcester
Crawley
Pendle
Warrington
Hastings
Bradford
CoventrySouth Tyneside Bristol, City of
Leeds
Merton
Newcastle upon Tyne
Rochdale CoventrySandwell
BexleyGateshead
Rochford
SandwellSouth Tyneside
Nuneaton and Bedworth
BirminghamBasildon
Calderdale
Broxbourne
Coventry
Leeds
Carlisle
North TynesideBristol, City of
Pendle
South Tyneside
Sandwell
Derby
South Tyneside
CrawleyHounslow
Stockport
Hillingdon
Richmond upon Thames
GatesheadGatesheadWigan
Hastings
Gateshead
St. Helens
LeedsBarrow-in-Furness
Greenwich
South TynesideSt. Helens
Manchester
Nuneaton and BedworthBarnsleyPendle
Broxbourne
North TynesideWigan
Leeds
Sandwell
Newcastle upon Tyne
Enfield
Coventry
Newcastle upon Tyne
Stockport
Wandsworth
Derby
Tower Hamlets
St. Helens
Newcastle upon Tyne
Burnley
Oldham
Pendle
Swindon
Greenwich
Newcastle upon TyneWigan
Newcastle upon Tyne
Camden
Bristol, City of
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Greenwich
Rochford
Wigan
Newcastle upon Tyne
Barnsley
South TynesideBirmingham
RedbridgeBurnley
Newcastle upon Tyne
Newcastle upon Tyne
Amber Valley
GatesheadCoventry
South TynesideSandwell
Camden
Birmingham
Sandwell
Stockport
North Hertfordshire
Newcastle upon TyneSouth Tyneside
Bexley
Hyndburn
Wigan
MertonHounslow
Leeds
Kingston upon Hull, City ofKirklees
Bexley
WorcesterNuneaton and Bedworth
Kirklees
Salford
Newcastle upon Tyne
Sunderland
Tower HamletsDerby
Wigan
Gateshead
Barking and Dagenham
Croydon
Doncaster
Sandwell
Solihull
Crawley
SolihullStockportKnowsley
Birmingham
Solihull
ExeterBirmingham
Birmingham
Solihull
BirminghamBirmingham
Birmingham
Southend-on-Sea
Southend-on-Sea
Bradford
Birmingham
Bradford
Wigan
SalfordBirmingham
Wirral Colchester
Wirral
Wigan
Southend-on-Sea
Wigan
StockportLiverpool
Southend-on-SeaBury
Leeds
ManchesterLiverpool
Barking and Dagenham
Southend-on-SeaCroydon
Leeds
Southend-on-Sea
Southend-on-Sea
Birmingham
Tameside
Leeds
Birmingham
Birmingham
TamesideSalfordSolihull
TamesideBirmingham
Liverpool
Lincoln
LincolnCroydon
Southend-on-Sea
Tameside
LeedsWirral
Salford
Redbridge
Southend-on-Sea
Barnsley
Bristol, City of
LeedsSefton
BirminghamNorth Hertfordshire
Liverpool
Coventry
Swindon
Southend-on-SeaLeeds
Tameside Croydon
Salford
Wirral
Doncaster
Leeds
Birmingham
Birmingham
Tameside
SalfordSalford
Stoke-on-Trent
Carlisle
Enfield
Enfield
Barking and Dagenham
Coventry
SalfordSheffield
Barking and Dagenham
Wirral
Enfield
Rotherham
Sefton
Sheffield
Leeds
Greenwich
Newcastle upon Tyne
Manchester
Sefton
Tameside
Southend-on-Sea
ManchesterSwindonBromley
Sefton
RotherhamDoncaster
WiganLincolnStockport
Basildon
Carlisle
DoncasterManchester
Bexley
Carlisle
Rotherham
Kirklees
SunderlandCarlisle
Salford
Sefton
Tameside
Dudley
Leeds
Tameside
Swindon
Thurrock
SheffieldSwindonSheffield
Barnsley
Wolverhampton
Milton Keynes
Sefton
Coventry
Bexley
Basildon
Bristol, City ofLeedsTameside
Bexley
Stockport
StevenageKingston upon Hull, City ofCoventry
Bexley SheffieldLeeds
Bromley
Birmingham
Leeds
Havering
Burnley
Sutton
Southend-on-Sea
Wakefield
Leeds
Sheffield
Carlisle
TamesideWakefield
Tameside
Leeds
KirkleesSheffield
Thurrock
Walsall
Wakefield
RotherhamThurrock
Bury
Tameside
Lincoln
Tameside
Bury
Sheffield
Rotherham
North Hertfordshire
Sheffield
Dudley
Basildon
Basildon
Leeds
Thurrock
BasildonSouthend-on-Sea
Thurrock
Sheffield
Bury
Bury
Sheffield
Worcester
Reigate and BansteadCarlisleSouthend-on-Sea
North East Lincolnshire
Sheffield
Bradford
Basildon
Southend-on-Sea
Basildon
Sunderland
Sefton
BuryAmber Valley
Sefton
Tameside
Thurrock
Basildon
Havering
Havering
Rotherham
Thurrock
Bury
Wakefield
Sheffield
BuryReigate and Banstead
Wakefield
Dudley
Bury
Barnsley
BroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourne
SunderlandRotherham
Hartlepool
Barnsley
Southend-on-Sea
CrawleyRotherham
Sefton
ThurrockThurrock
BuryBasildon
Basildon
Barnsley
Basildon
Plymouth
WakefieldHartlepool
Thurrock
Thurrock
Wakefield
Hartlepool
Wakefield
Basildon
Southend-on-Sea
Thurrock
Thurrock
Thurrock
Rotherham
Hartlepool
WakefieldRotherham
Sunderland
010
2030
0 1000 2000 3000 4000% White British 2001 x Change in Minority Share '01-11
wards Fitted values
BNP Vote and Ethnic Shift in Local Elections, 2010-12%
BN
P V
ote
(Wh
ite B
ritis
h O
nly)
Source: Plymouth Elections Centre
Bradford
Westminster
Birmingham
ExeterHaringey
SheffieldExeter
Westminster
Camden
WokingLambethEaling
Birmingham
Camden
SheffieldCambridgeSouth Cambridgeshire
Merton Cambridge
Harrow
South CambridgeshireSouth CambridgeshireWokingSwindon
Islington
Kensington and Chelsea
Wirral Reading Newcastle-under-LymeMilton Keynes
Ealing
Merton
Westminster
Hammersmith and Fulham
WirralEastleigh
CroydonCroydon
Richmond upon ThamesMole Valley
Croydon
Merton
BirminghamTraffordSheffield
Harrow
Southend-on-SeaOxford
Westminster
Wirral
Southend-on-SeaEastleigh
Wirral
BradfordGosport
South CambridgeshireBirminghamBradford
WiganSeftonWirral
Birmingham
ExeterBradfordWirralWirralWirral
ExeterWiganSouthend-on-SeaWiganWokingham
SheffieldSwindon
Exeter
Milton Keynes
Waltham Forest
South CambridgeshireWokingham Doncaster
Waltham Forest
Chorley
Harrow
Kensington and Chelsea
SouthamptonWokingSouthend-on-Sea
Leeds
West LindseyWirralManchester
Croydon
ExeterMilton KeynesGloucesterDoncasterReigate and BansteadMaidstone
Milton Keynes
Wokingham
Barking and Dagenham
Eastleigh
Southend-on-SeaMilton Keynes
Croydon
LeedsStockport
Southend-on-Sea
SheffieldBirminghamTameside
Croydon
Norwich
SuttonBradford
Reigate and Banstead
Croydon
Milton KeynesEastleighGosport Milton KeynesBasingstoke and Deane
EastleighTamesideTrafford
Milton KeynesReigate and BansteadTameside
BirminghamMole Valley Woking
WirralBradfordEastleigh
Huntingdonshire
Wirral
Sheffield
Merton
Wirral
Southampton
LincolnHavant
Lincoln Eastleigh
LincolnRedbridge
Woking
WokinghamPlymouthBasingstoke and Deane Milton Keynes
South CambridgeshireCroydonHavering
Tameside
Newham
SeftonLeeds
Lincoln
Wirral
NorwichWirral
RedbridgeBromley
Swindon
Southend-on-SeaGosportLincolnSefton
Wokingham
Wirral
EastleighSefton Epping ForestNorwich
Woking
Reigate and Banstead
WirralMole ValleyWoking
Enfield
Merton
WirralPurbeck
Coventry
SwindonStevenage
Milton KeynesNorwich
SouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaNorwich
CroydonBromley
BradfordSefton Tameside
Croydon
Huntingdonshire
Walsall Hounslow
MaidstoneSheffield
WirralBirmingham
Redbridge
Crawley
Enfield
North East Lincolnshire
Tameside
Sefton
Enfield
Mole ValleyGloucester
Milton KeynesEastleigh
BromleyHavant
BromleyHaveringSouth Cambridgeshire
Manchester
Tandridge
Tameside
Stoke-on-Trent
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Barking and Dagenham
Enfield
Enfield
StevenageTandridge
Reading
Barking and Dagenham
Maidstone
Barking and Dagenham
Eastleigh
Enfield
WalsallRotherhamNorth East LincolnshireSefton
Stoke-on-TrentStoke-on-TrentManchester
Sheffield
Leeds
Wokingham
Greenwich
Redbridge
FarehamWirral
Woking
Newcastle upon TyneStoke-on-Trent
Sefton Mole ValleySeftonWoking Manchester
Milton Keynes
Sefton
WolverhamptonSwindonNorth East LincolnshireBromley
Sefton
RotherhamDoncaster
Gloucester
BrentwoodWigan
EastleighDudley
LincolnExeter
Maidstone
TamesideLincolnLincoln
Eastleigh
WokingStoke-on-TrentMilton Keynes
Stockport
Kingston upon Hull, City ofSwale
West Lindsey
Doncaster
DoncasterStoke-on-Trent
Manchester
GosportBromleyExeter
BexleySutton
Eastleigh
Milton KeynesWokingham
Bromley
Newcastle-under-LymeRotherhamMole Valley
GloucesterStoke-on-TrentNewcastle-under-Lyme
Mole Valley
DudleySefton
Stevenage
Havant
Eastleigh
Newcastle-under-LymeTamesideDudley
Leeds South Cambridgeshire
Tameside
Sefton Tandridge
HuntingdonshireStevenage
Barking and Dagenham
SheffieldAdur
West LindseyNewcastle-under-Lyme
Sheffield
Milton KeynesNewcastle-under-LymeWest Lindsey
Tameside
Walsall
Manchester
EastleighFarehamAdur
Walsall
Tunbridge Wells
WokingKingston upon Hull, City of
WolverhamptonGloucester
North Hertfordshire
Epping Forest
Milton KeynesSefton
BexleyStoke-on-Trent
Basildon
Walsall
SwindonSwindonSwindonSwindon
Leeds
TamesideDudley
BexleyRotherham
Exeter
Huntingdonshire
Tunbridge Wells
Stevenage
Plymouth
Reigate and Banstead
Stevenage
North East Lincolnshire
WokinghamReigate and BansteadCoventry
HaveringBexley
Woking
Tandridge
Hillingdon
Newcastle-under-LymeWalsall Bromley
Birmingham
Bromley
Leeds
Barking and Dagenham
Gosport
Sheffield
North HertfordshireWolverhamptonWorthingMole Valley
Barking and Dagenham
Tandridge
Sefton BromleyHaveringBrentwood
Chorley
Sutton
Walsall
Sutton Sutton
Gosport
Tandridge
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Dudley
Havering
PlymouthReigate and BansteadSeftonExeter
Purbeck WorthingReigate and Banstead
SheffieldTameside
Tunbridge Wells
Wolverhampton
Runnymede
Stoke-on-Trent
Worthing
ThurrockWalsall
AdurWalsall
Wakefield
PlymouthWokingham
Rotherham
ThurrockReigate and BansteadWokingham
Dudley
Lincoln
Stoke-on-Trent
Tandridge
Havering
Lincoln
Runnymede
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Fareham
Adur
Tandridge
HaveringRotherham
Sheffield
Tunbridge WellsStevenage
Worthing
North East Lincolnshire
Kingston upon Hull, City of
Dudley
Basildon
Dudley
PlymouthBasildonPlymouthWalsallAdur
Havering
Dudley
North East LincolnshireReigate and Banstead
Adur
BasildonSouthend-on-Sea
Stevenage
Thurrock
PlymouthNorth East LincolnshireCarlisle
North East LincolnshireDoncasterWiganHuntingdonshire
North East Lincolnshire
Worthing
Havering
North East LincolnshireWaveney
Dudley
Bradford
Mole Valley
Waveney
BasildonSouthend-on-Sea
Walsall
Newcastle-under-LymeKingston upon Hull, City of
Basildon
Mole ValleyHavant
Worthing
Mole ValleyWaveneyDudley
Bradford
North East Lincolnshire
Havant
Plymouth
Brentwood
HaveringDudley
PlymouthWorthing
Worthing
Adur
Tandridge
SeftonTameside
Thurrock
Stevenage
Stoke-on-Trent
Reigate and Banstead
North East Lincolnshire
Tandridge
Basildon
Havering
WalsallHavering
RotherhamSefton
Rotherham
HuntingdonshireSwale
Plymouth
Adur
Adur
Wokingham
Reigate and Banstead
Waveney Swale
SheffieldBrentwoodDudleyAdur
Rotherham
Havant
Plymouth
AdurBrentwood
Runnymede
Rotherham
Dudley
TandridgePlymouth
Sefton
Plymouth
RotherhamHartlepool Southend-on-Sea
Swale
Dudley
Tunbridge Wells
Runnymede
Huntingdonshire
Plymouth
RunnymedeNewcastle-under-Lyme
Huntingdonshire
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Worthing
Milton Keynes
PlymouthWorthing RunnymedeRotherham
PlymouthPlymouth
ThurrockThurrock
RotherhamNewcastle-under-Lyme
Dudley
North East LincolnshireHuntingdonshire
SheffieldDudley
Plymouth
Reigate and Banstead
Hartlepool
West Lindsey
Reigate and Banstead
Thurrock
Hartlepool
Rotherham
Swale
Runnymede
Plymouth
Hartlepool
Rotherham
Waveney
Hartlepool
North East Lincolnshire
Newcastle-under-LymeAdur
North East LincolnshireSouthend-on-Sea
West Lindsey
Thurrock
ThurrockRotherham
Tandridge
Adur
Dudley
Adur
RotherhamNewcastle-under-Lyme
Rotherham
Hartlepool
Newcastle-under-Lyme
RotherhamNewcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme
010
2030
0 1000 2000 3000 4000% White British in 2001 x Change in minority share '01-11
Wards Fitted values
UKIP Vote and Ethnic Shift in Local Elections 2010-12%
UK
IP v
ote
Source: Plymouth Elections Centre
