ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS1 Climate Change:
Pragmatic Solutions We Cannot Risk Our Kids Futures On the False
Hope That the Vast Majority of Scientists Are Wrong. BICEP
Businesses Bill Haaf, December 2014
Slide 2
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS2 How to Prevent
Catastrophe? Climate science is settled enough Slides at end Today:
Grim reality Why it will get hot Risks and harsh metrics Take home
message Six pragmatic steps Hail Mary: Technology overview How you
can help Your feedback and ideas Supplemental slides: References;
science; geo engineering
Slide 3
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS3 Status & Todays
Message 800 pound Fossil Fuel Industry Cheap coal/Nat gas
Pathforward ???
Slide 4
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS4 Science Enough
References: Consensus groups; Peer-reviewed publications; Reputable
scientists actually working in this field It is a RISK issue:
Believe science Do not need 100% Science is more than Enough
Slide 5
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS5 Why it Will Get Hotter
IPCC: Keep carbon emissions below 3.6F not exceeding Dangerous..
But Still a work in progress; Unknown feedback emissions
(Permafrost; clouds; plant and ocean absorption/emit back?; Short
lived gases?, etc. 480 billion tons left to emit, then ZERO Others:
250- 350 billion tons; depends on percent risk and halting
deforestation; plant new forests; methane? London Financial Group:
Carbon Tracker Can only burn 20% of total reserves of coal, oil
& natural gas. So, 15-30 years to reach CO2 levels that cause a
3.6F increase - UNEP: 2055 -70 35 billion tons of CO2/year; Hot
even if..
Slide 6
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS6 Will a China/USA Trade
Agreement Save Us? China: Emissions peak in 2030 & NonFF rise
to 20% USA: Cut 27% below 2005 by 2025 (needs coal reductions) New
Congress will attack EPA & CAAct on coal Even if all
implemented, NOT ENOUGH REDUCTIONS Value: Takes away the argument
that China wont reduce Helps shape future policy and other nations
Includes major CCS coal plant in China (& potable water)
Funding for clean energy technology partnership University &
Res. institutions & industry CCS= carbon capture & seq
Slide 7
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS7 We are on track for a 7
F hotter world* marked by extreme heat waves, declining global food
stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and a life-threatening
sea level rise. CEO, World Bank (1.8 F so far) 7F is incompatible
with an organized global community, is likely to be beyond
adaptation, is devastating to the majority of ecosystems... Price
Waterhouse Coopers The coldest year by 2047 will be hotter than the
hottest year 1860-2005 Mora C., Nature 2013 Hurricane Haiyan = 194
mph wind. A preview? *Earths temperature was 7 lower during last
ice age, with a mile of ice above us. Risk is Real
Slide 8
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS8 Risk Drives Everything
IPCC 2013/14: International Panel Climate Scientists: Warming is
unequivocal atmosphere & oceans have warmed, snow and ice
diminished, sea level has risen as GHG has increased Over the last
20 years Greenland & Antarctic ice sheets have lost mass;
worldwide glaciers shrinking; Arctic Sea ice & Northern
Hemisphere spring snow cover continue to decrease Ocean
acidification up 26% Human influence extremely likely as dominant
cause
Slide 9
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS9 Risk Drives Everything
National Climate Assessment 2014: Temperatures rise; Extreme
storms; Prolonged droughts in the Southwest Large forest fires;
Insect-borne diseases; Pine Beetle Sea level rise & storm
surges! USDA, 2 reports 2013: American agriculture and forests
threatened Crop yields decline fast with temperatures > 88F 2F
increase = wheat > 20% loss Melting ice in Greenland = 500 cubic
kilometer per year; csr.utexas.edu/personal/chen/publication.html
90% of the worlds glaciers are retreating, see slides
Slide 10
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS10 Harsh Metrics #1 : CO2
China = 30% global CO2 emission USA = 15 % (leader for 150 yrs;
highest per capita) EU6 = 10 % India = 7.1 Russia = 5.3 Japan = 5
Cheap coal emits 43% of the worlds CO2 and consumption is
growing
Slide 11
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS11 Harsh Metrics #2:
Focus on Electricity Gen China burns 50% of the worlds coal India
has cheap large coal reserves 59% of Indias electricity coal; 4 new
mega coal power sites = 10% USA = 37% of electric power from coal
Average* American coal utility emits 10,000,000 tons CO2 per year
(= 2250 wind turbines 2 Mw) It would take 260,000 wind turbines to
replace 50% of electricity All solar PV in America displaced 1.3
coal utilities *Average of top 100 coal utilities; 7000 in America
(carma.org); 72,000 wind turbines in 2013 *USA = 6.5 billion tons
CO2/yr; World = 35 billion tons CO2/yr
Slide 12
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS12 Harsh Metrics #2:
Focus on Electricity Gen 2001-2010 Global Elect. by coal increased
; 2700 terawatt vs 1300 TW All RE & N Proj. American Elec.
2013-40 ( EIA): - 73% Nat gas; 24 % RE; 3 % Nuc Worlds Largest
solar PV : 290 MW= 625,000. mw-hr #50 COAL UTILITY =10 to
13,00,000. MW-hr (60-85% ) - - RE starting from much lower
base
Slide 13
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS13 Harsh Metrics #3
Electricity Generation USA = 67% fossil fuel Germany = 56% fossil
fuel As Germany phases out nuclear, use of coal increases &
GHGs go up! Pennsylvania: 69% FF 21% nuclear 3% wind 0.4% solar 5%
hydro
Slide 14
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS14 Transition to Low
Carbon Takes Many Decades CHINA: By 2040 coal drops 15% to 52% Wind
up 7% Nuclear up 6%; More? More low carbon energy than all of
Europe
Slide 15
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS15 American Oil & gas
industry = $1.1 trillion Massive infrastructure, political power,
and many jobs THUS the FF Industry Must help lead on climate
stewardship Progressive FF corporations Concern : State Rep. Att.
Gen. & Oil Companies Take Home: All solutions must include FFI
CAN NOT WORK AROUND!
Slide 16
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS16 FFI: Their Solution is
Carbon Capture & Sequester Fossil Fuels are not disappearing
soon it seems inconceivable that we can do this without substantial
carbon capture & sequestration. - J. Thompson, director of
Fossil Fuel Transition Project Clean Air Task Force Even if we were
given free renewable energy, it would be economically unthinkable
for nations or corporations to abandon the enormous investments
they have made in the fossil fuel system from coal mines to oil
wells, gas pipelines and refineries to millions of local filling
stations. Infrastructure equals $20 trillion. - Vaclav Smil,
Czech-Canadian scientist and policy analyst. He is a Distinguished
Professor Emeritus University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, Canada
Slide 17
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS17 No Easy Path Forward
for Low Carbon Energy Not going to happen Coal, natural gas and oil
are too cheap TRUE: Unfair subsidies lead to increase in death of
miners, black lung, spills, air pollution (Hg), health impacts,
etc. * Jobs and the Economy TRUMP ! Society does not seem to care;
Nor vote to change
Slide 18
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS18 Step #1 FFI: This is a
KEY STEP Make Their climate science Risk Assessments public -
Simple yet powerful tool - FFI must be good Product Stewards Force
Congress, public, & FFI to discuss solutions FFI have in-house
expertise & climate risk assessments! Not Why we need
energy
Slide 19
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS19 Step #2 FFI: Low Cost
and Easy Industry must lead by setting goals to reduce and maintain
background CH4 emissions EPA proposed rules Monitoring data highly
variable Need 3 rd party assessment which is made public
Stewardship Example: ACC - Responsible Care Code; Alaskan Pollock
Industry; Forestry; Green Bldgs
Slide 20
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS20 Steps #3, 4, and 5:
ALL STALLED UNTIL ECONOMIC IMPACTS ARE LINKED TO HEAT GOAL: Power
plants can use any fuel or technology to generate electricity as
long as all emissions & GHGs meet steadily increasing
standards. Let the most cost-effective clean technology win Means
Govt Policy*: STEP 3: All Utilities Must use Carbon Cap & Seq
$$ & needs R&D; 100 X pipelines E.OilR. & Deep storage
Govt - Need $ub CC& S SEE:
http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/calculations.php (Yes- Eng eff,
And..) http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/calculations.php
Slide 21
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS21 Steps # 4, & 5:
Let the most cost-effective clean technology win. Needs Policy :
STEP 4: Massive crash program for - New Gen nuclear; &
Subsidize offshore wind & R&D for solar STEP 5: Carbon tax
Helpful; Slow; Not sufficient *All policies must resolve the FFI
800-pound gorilla
Slide 22
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS22 STEP 6: Hail Mary of
Cheap Energy Google RE < $ Coal project Learnings: that
reversing the trend would require both radical technological
advances in cheap zero-carbon energy, as well as a method of
extracting CO 2 from the atmosphere and sequestering the carbon. ..
reliable zero-carbon energy sources so cheap that the operators of
power plants and industrial facilities alike have an economic
rationale for switching over soonsay, within the next 40
years.
Slide 23
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS23 What is Needed: Google
The owner would have to factor in the capital investment for
construction and continued costs of operation and maintenanceand
still make a profit while generating electricity for less than
$0.04/kWh to $0.06/kWh. Energy so cheap utilities and corporations
switch over in 40 years. Across the board, we need solutions that
dont require subsidies or government regulations that penalize
fossil fuel usage So rather than depend on politicians high ideals
to drive change, its a safer bet to rely on businesses self
interest: in other words, the bottom line.
Slide 24
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS24 Resources for R&D:
Google Incremental improvements are not enough Adopt 70-20-10
R&D strategy 70% existing low carbonbuild to help reduce impact
20%cutting-edge technology on the path to economic viability
10%wild and crazy and disruptive
Slide 25
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS25 Will Some be Hail
Mary? Free night wind energy to make H2 for fuel cells(currently
into methane) Biomass to H2 South Korea Jeju Islands $200 million
smart grid test Segway inventor Dean Kamen: New Stirling Engine
fuel cell Need low cost and more efficient solar thanks China! EG:
perovskite; etc; Scale up cost issues! Experience needed on Off
shore wind (harsh)
Slide 26
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS26 More Technology
Convert CO2 (from CCS) to EG, methanol, synthetic gas, Siluria
tech: CH4 to fuels Net Power Company: No-emissions power plant
Scaling up Low-cost Energy storage: German Regelenergie, Aquion,
many others New generation nuclear : SMR- NuScale, Thorium China,
Saudi Arabia and Russia Conceptual studies on low carbon energy
plus HVDC M. Jacobson OR Sandy MacDonald German 80% RE; Solar 100%
America
Slide 27
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS27 CONCEPT: Inject CO2 in
hot brine from deep Gulf, use geoheat = sequestration plus cost
effectiveness
Slide 28
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS28
Slide 29
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS29 CO2 Capture: Rice
University Needs Scale-Up
Slide 30
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS30 Fusion: China or
Lockheed Martin? The potential is amazing No radiation Lockheed
Martin: 10 years to a small fusion reactor Skeptical ?
Slide 31
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS31 What Must All
Companies do? Set Public goals : Reduce absolute CO2-e Emissions
every year Not Indexed Count both internal and external energy
Annual public reports Lobby Congress on climate risks
Slide 32
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS32 What Can You Do? Send
email to (see list): Express your concern and fear for children and
grandkids Ask CEOs of oil and natural gas companies and utilities
for their climate risk assessments. Dear Company : I am very
concerned about the risks of climate change to my children and
grandchildren. What is your opinion of the science? What are you
doing to reduce the carbon emissions of your products? Thank you
Dear Congressman: I am very concerned about the risks of climate
change to my children and grandchildren. Please send me your
opinion of the science and risks. Thank you..
Slide 33
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS33 Feedback What are your
ideas/ questions ?
Slide 34
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS34 Supplement Slides
Science and data Geo-engineering Resiliency
Slide 35
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS35 Harsh Metrics NATURAL
GAS: Energy for 90 years OIL SHALE: Competing with OPEC; Russias
3000-mile pipeline to China
Slide 36
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS36 U Texas challenge Ngas
Forecasts
Slide 37
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS37 REF: Climate Science
Enough A Climate Overview from the Royal Society and the US
National Academy of Sciences 2014:
dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/exec-office-other/climate-change-full.pdf
American Association for the Advancement of Science: 2014:
whatweknow.aaas.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/AAAS-What-We-Know.pdf
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: ipcc.ch/ NOAA:
climate.gov/teaching National Snow & Ice Data Center:
nsidc.org/ eg: Nov 2014: Worldwide retreat of glaciers confirmed in
unprecedented detail 2014 National Climate Assessment:
globalchange.gov/ncadac
Slide 38
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS38 REF II: Science Enough
Reuters
reuters.com/investigates/special-report/waters-edge-the-crisis-of-rising-sea-levels/
NASA climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus Skeptical Science
skepticalscience.com/ Google work on energy
spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/what-it-would-really-take-to-reverse-climate-
change (Ross Koningstein and David Fork) World Meteorlogical
Organization (WMO)
wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/factsheet/documents/Climate-Change-Info-Sheet-
136_fr.pdf
Slide 39
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS39 REF III: Science
Enough A Crack in the Natural-Gas Bridge: Nature; 514, 436437,
(Oct. 2014); Steven J. Davis & Christine Shearer Climate
Science is Settled Enough:
slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2014/10/the_wall_street_journal_and_ste
ve_koonin_the_new_face_of_climate_change.html By Raymond T.
Pierrehumber Four Top Climate Scientists - Letter on Nuclear Power:
cnn.com/2013/11/03/world/nuclear-energy-climate-change-scientists-letter
4 Former EPA Heads Under Republican President Testify on Climate:
usnews.com/news/articles/2014/06/17/former-epa-chiefs-under-reagan-bush-to-testify-
on-need-to-address-climate-change 15 Stabilization Wedges
http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/
Slide 40
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS40 Emergency:
Geo-engineering Remove CO2 from the atmosphere: Not easy; still
ocean impacts Biochar? Block sunlight? Olivine rocks in ocean surf?
Iron in ocean? Capture CO2 from Air? Presentation to 4CP ?
Slide 41
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS41 When it Gets Hot:
Adapt Verizon flood barrier Con Edisons Risk Assessment for climate
risks to its power grid NYC Move away from ocean, drought areas
Farmers move north Survival techniques: What will your family do?
Water, food, power Varies with time period Separate presentationnot
today
Slide 42
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS42 Planet has Been
Liveable Earth = 55F warmer from CO2. H2o vapor goes with temp. - 8
F = Mile of ice +7 F = Mile of heat? 280 to 400 ppm in 125
years
Slide 43
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS43 NOTE: Land
Slide 44
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS44 Global Sea-Land
Anomaly 1880-2013
Slide 45
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS45 Global Surface Air
Temp = 3-6 ft Above Land or Water World = 34 billion tons CO2/yr;
USA = 5.5 B (Electricity = 3 B); China = 8.7 B)
Slide 46
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS46 Global Ocean Heat
Content
Slide 47
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS47 Ocean Temperatures:
2000-2013 IPCC: Virtually certain (o-700m) warmed 1971-2010; Likely
warmed 700m-2000m -1957-2009; & 3000 m to bottom 1992-2005.
From 2000-2013 the global ocean surface temperature rise paused, in
spite of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Called Global
Warming Hiatus. However, as of April 2014 ocean warming has picked
up speed again. The 2014 global ocean warming is mostly due to the
North Pacific, which has warmed far beyond any recorded value &
has shifted hurricane tracks, weakened trade winds, and produced
coral bleaching in the Hawaiian Islands.
Slide 48
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS48 Ocean Temperatures:
Gulf of Maine (Atlantic), Cape cod to Nova Scotia, warming faster
than 99% of the oceans Impacts on fisheries, lobsters? Species are
changing
Slide 49
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS49 Causes jet stream to
wobble & move. Weather systems get stuck. High Latitudes
Warming 2X
Slide 50
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS50 Antarctic &
Greenland Satellite data shows ice sheets of Greenland and
Antarctica are declining at record speed. The annual loss of ice
has doubled in the case of Greenland (left) and tripled in the West
Antarctic compared to figures from 2009. In 21 years,the West
Antarctica Ice Sheet has lost the equivalent of a Mt. Everest in
ice every 2 years.
Slide 51
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS51 Antarctica Sea ice
surrounding the Antarctic reached its maximum extent = 7.76 million
sq miles; 595,000 sq miles above the 1981 to 2010 average; well
above average Might be caused by changing wind patterns or recent
ice sheet melt from warmer, deep ocean water reaching the
coastline. The melt water freshens and cools the deep ocean layer.
Huge section of west Antarctic ice sheet has reached a irreversible
collapse point = 3 ft sea level rise.
Slide 52
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS52 More Scary Data Amazon
Basin Rainforest: In dry years the basin loses carbon.
Climate-caused droughts will change to a net emitter Of 588 birds
studied, 314 will lose the majority of their current range
(National Audubon Society) Soils store more carbon than plants and
atmosphere combined: Impact of more CO2? Higher temps? Impacts
microbes & plant enzymes in unexpected ways Permafrost: Ground
temps have increased in most regions; Northern Russia and Europe
has most degradation; permafrost boundary of discontinuous moved 80
km and continuous moved 50 km. note 2X C that is in atmosphere
Slide 53
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS53 More Scary Data II Sea
Level: 1901-2010, global mean rose 0.19 meter. The rate of sea
level rise since 1950 has been larger than the rate during the last
200 yrs (IPCC). Impact of ocean acidity and rising temperatures on
corals, fish, shellfish, jellyfish? Pine bark beetles live through
warmer winters, millions of trees dead
Slide 54
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS54 Climate Corp: Predicts
Weather for Farmers The company tries to factor every important
climatic condition into its algorithm, including carbon-dioxide
levels, ocean temperatures, and the oscillations of El Nio and La
Nia. The Corn Belt is moving north, absolutely and rapidly. You can
see it most clearly in North Dakota. Richland and Cass Counties
(the latter includes Fargo) used to be the only places in the state
where corn grew successfully. Now they are growing it all the way
up to Manitoba, Seifert said. That had been canola territory, but
canola has retreated even farther north. Eventually, we will hit
the Canadian Shielda vast stretch of Precambrian rock covered by a
thin layer of soil and that will be the end. For the first time,
farmers in North Dakota are having trouble getting their corn to
market: there is just too much of it to be moved on the existing
system of roads and rails.
Slide 55
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS55 Climate Corp: Weather
Prediction, Continued by 2050 wheat could be planted rarely in
Kansas but widely in Alaska. This is not so much about global
warming as it is about the frequency of severe weather
Slide 56
ETHICAL AND PRAGMATIC ENERGY SOLUTIONS56 Cumulative
Emissions