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ETHIOPIA Country Program 2004-2006

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ETHIOPIA Country Program

2004-2006

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Ethiopia Country Program 2004-2006

Austrian Development Cooperation 2

Publisher: Federal Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Austrian Development Cooperation

Minoritenplatz 9, 1014 Wien Telefon: 01/531 15-4469 Fax 01/531 15-4469 e-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.bmaa.gv.at

∗ Map on cover: ADC priorities in Ethiopia

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Table of Content

Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................ 5

1. Executive Summary................................................................................................................ 7

2. Basic Information.................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Profile ................................................................................................................................................ 9 2.2 Political Developments since 1991............................................................................................... 10 2.3 Political and Institutional Establishments ................................................................................... 11 2.4 Economy ......................................................................................................................................... 11 2.5 Poverty ............................................................................................................................................ 13 2.6 Regional Context ............................................................................................................................ 13

3. Status of Ethiopian Economic Development...................................................................... 14 3.1 Problems of Ethiopian Economic Development ......................................................................... 14 3.2 Development Policy of Ethiopia (SDPRP).................................................................................... 15 3.3 Problems of the SDPRP................................................................................................................. 16 3.4 International Development Cooperation with Ethiopia .............................................................. 17 3.5 Coordination of Development Cooperation by Ethiopia ............................................................ 18

4. The hitherto existing Austrian Cooperation ....................................................................... 19 4.1 Bilateral Relations between Ethiopia and Austria ...................................................................... 19 4.2 Development and Structure of Austrian Development Cooperation ........................................ 19 4.3 Performance and Mode of Austrian Development Cooperation ............................................... 20 4.4 Evaluation ....................................................................................................................................... 20 4.5 Activities of Private Organisations............................................................................................... 20

5. Austrian Development Cooperation 2004-2006.................................................................. 21 5.1 Austrian Development Aims and Principles................................................................................ 21 5.2 Objectives of Programming .......................................................................................................... 21 5.3 Developmental Approach of Cooperation with Ethiopia............................................................ 21 5.4 Focussing........................................................................................................................................ 22

5.4.1 Overall Program ....................................................................................................................................... 22 5.4.2 Subprogram Health .................................................................................................................................. 23 5.4.3 Subprogram Food Security ...................................................................................................................... 25 5.4.4 Subprogram Energy ................................................................................................................................. 28 5.4.5 Subprogram Gender and Democracy ...................................................................................................... 30

5.5 Methodology for Implementation.................................................................................................. 32 5.5.1 Regional Focussing.................................................................................................................................. 32 5.5.2 Program Component Education and Science .......................................................................................... 32 5.5.3 Co-financing ............................................................................................................................................. 34 5.5.4 Operational Coordination with other Donors ............................................................................................ 34 5.5.5 Project-, Program Assistance, Budget Support ........................................................................................ 34

6. Medium-Term Implementation ............................................................................................. 35 6.1 Areas of Emphasis ......................................................................................................................... 35 6.2 Administrative Operationalisation................................................................................................ 35

7. Considerations on Sustainability ........................................................................................ 36 7.1 Promotion of Peace........................................................................................................................ 36 7.2 Appropriate Technologies............................................................................................................. 36 7.3 Crosscutting Issues ....................................................................................................................... 36

7.3.1 Environment ............................................................................................................................................. 36 7.3.2 Gender ..................................................................................................................................................... 36 7.3.3 Poverty ..................................................................................................................................................... 37 7.3.4 Democracy ............................................................................................................................................... 37

7.4 Socio-Cultural Aspects.................................................................................................................. 37 7.5 Development of Capacities ........................................................................................................... 37 7.6 Economic Viability.......................................................................................................................... 37

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Annex 1 Overview of ODA Flows to Ethiopia 1997-2003 .................................................... 38 Bilateral Development Assistance by Donor.......................................................................................... 38 Multilateral Development Assistance by Donor..................................................................................... 39 The Ten Largest Bilateral Donors............................................................................................................ 40 The Ten Largest Multilateral Donors....................................................................................................... 40 Summary of NGO Disbursements of Official Development Assistance.............................................. 40 Summary of Total Development Assistance by Thematic Area/Sector............................................... 41 Priority Sectors.......................................................................................................................................... 41

Annex 2 Analysis of the Current Political Situation............................................................. 42 1. Political Developments since 2000...................................................................................................... 42

Elections 2000 ......................................................................................................................................................... 42 The Internal Reverberations of the Ethio-Eritrean War ............................................................................................ 43 Spring 2001 – TPLF-Split and Student Unrest......................................................................................................... 43

2. The State of the Ethiopian Political System ....................................................................................... 43 Human Rights Situation ........................................................................................................................................... 43

3. Prospects and Chances........................................................................................................................ 45 Annex 3 Economic and Social Data of Ethiopia................................................................... 47

Key Economic Indicators ......................................................................................................................... 48 Annex 4 Bibliography ............................................................................................................. 50

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Acronyms € Euro ADC Austrian Development Cooperation ADLI Agricultural Development Led Industrialisation AEDC Austrian Embassy Development Cooperation (Addis Abeba ADC Coordination Office) AIDS Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome ANRS Amhara National Regional State AU African Union BL Budget Line BoA Amhara Regional Bureau of Agriculture CBO Community Based Organisation CCM Comitato Collaborazione Medica COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CSA Central Statistical Authority DAC OECD Development Assistance Committee DAG CG Development Assistance Group Core Group DAG Development Assistance Group DFID Department for International Development (UK) DPPC Disaster Preparedness Prevention Commission ECA Economic Commission for Africa EEPCO Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EPI Expanded Program of Immunization EPLF Eritrean People’s Liberation Front EPRDF Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front ESAF Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility ET Ethiopia ETB Birr (Ethiopian Currency) EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investment FDRE Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia FSP Food Security Program GDP Gross Domestic Product GoE Government of Ethiopia GPR Consulting Group Dr. Holzer HIPC Highly Indebted Poor Country HIV Human Immune Deficiency Virus HSDP Health Sector Development Program IDA International Development Association IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development IGADD Intergovernmental Authority on Drought and Development ILDP Integrated Livestock Development Project IMF International Monetary Fund KW Kilowatt M.Sc. Master of Science MDG Millennium Development Goal MFA Federal Ministry for Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Austria MoFED Ministry of Finance and Economic Development MoH Ministry of Health NGO Non-Governmental Organization OAU Organisation of African Unity (replaced by AU) ODA Official Development Assistance OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OLF Oromo Liberation Front Ph.D. Doctor of Philosophy PHC Primary Health Care PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Program SDPRP Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Program SIDA Swedish Agency for International Development Cooperation

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SMNP-IDP Simen Mountains National Park-Integrated Development Project SNNPR Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region SNRS Somali National Regional State SRHB Somali Regional Health Bureau SSA Sub-Saharan Africa TGE Transitional Government of Ethiopia TPLF Tgrayan People’s Liberation Front TT2 Tetanus Toxiod Vaccination (two doses) UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Program UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNIDO United Nations Industrial Development Organization UNMEE United Nations Mission for Ethiopia and Eritrea US Untied States WB World Bank WHO World Health Organisation wpa wpa-beratende ingenieure ZHD Zonal Health Department

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1. Executive Summary

1. Nearly two decades of civil war and command economy ended in 1991 for Ethiopia, a country ranked among the poorest countries of the world with a per-capita income lower than that prior to 1960. The concerted efforts of the new government under the leadership of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi targeted towards economic reforms with special emphasis on "ownership" during the planning and implementation of reform programs. Remarkable economic progress in terms of high economic growth, a low inflation rate and the reduction of budget deficit have until 1998 confirmed the appropriateness of the path followed. This positive development trend, however, was interrupted in May 1998 by the eruption of a military conflict with Eritrea that caused extensive negative impacts on all spheres of the economy. The renewed positive trend, which seemed to emerge after the conclusion of a cease-fire agreement in Algiers (18 June 2000), came to a halt in 2003. A combination of wrong economic policies and an extended drought in 2002 managed to spiral the economic growth for 2003 down to negative levels.

2. The continued exclusion of a truly democratic opposition and the allocation of all key positions of the central as well as regional governments of the federal states to confidence persons of the EPRDF are to be evaluated critically. Although the parliamentary elections in 2000 were considered a step into the right direction, the regional and local ones in 2001 were a step backwards.

3. Bilateral relations between Ethiopia and Austria have increasingly improved since 1991. In this respect, the promising new start of politics in Ethiopia along with the priority policy adopted by Austria in its Foreign Policy Initiative “Africa 2000+” and development cooperation have greatly contributed. In May 1996, Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin stayed in Austria on an official bilateral visit, followed by several visits of Ethiopian Ministers to International Organisations in Vienna. The latest high-level official visit was the one of Ato Girma Birru, Minister of Trade and Industry between 24 and 27 February 2003. Unfortunately there never was an official bilateral visit in Ethiopia on ministerial level.

4. In the development cooperation with Ethiopia, a comprehensively structured country program was first formulated for the period of 1998-2000. With only one exception, the selection of the subprograms contained in this country program proved to be correct. The subprogram on tourism, has therefore, been replaced by that on food security during the country program 2001-2003.

5. In continuation of the last country program 2001-2003 the development cooperation intends to contribute towards the alleviation of poverty in Ethiopia and will concentrate on the subprograms of health, food security, energy, gender as well as democracy. Education programs, the scientific pool and NGO co-financing are intended as complementary tools for the subprograms. The Subprogram Health focuses on the Health Sector Development Program, initiated by the government. The Austrian contribution in the Subprogram Food Security is geared towards increasing agricultural production and the creation of employment opportunities. The Subprogram Energy concentrates on mini-hydropower and management support to the major Ethiopian energy utility EEPCO. In the Subprogram Gender & Democracy Ethiopian NGOs and government institutions will implement projects with focus on advancing gender equality, democratisation and the respect of human rights.

6. A comprehensive regional concentration, due to the specific Ethiopian situation, is justifiable only in the Subprograms Foods Security and Health. Therefore the Subprogram Food Security is exclusively active in the North Gondar zone of the ANRS, whereas the Subprogram Health concentrates on the Somali region.

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2. Basic Information

2.1 Profile

Geography

Area 1.130.138 km2

Capital City Addis Ababa

Climate 3 temperate zones:

up to 1500m, "kolla" humid or dry-hot

1500-2500m, "weyna dega“ temperate

2500-3500m, "dega“ cool and foggy

Population

Total 62,9 Million (estimate 2000)

Forecast 2015 – 89,8 Million1

Population Growth Rate 2,6% (1975-2002)

Migration approx. 85% of the population live on the countryside, with the majority depending on subsistence farming

Languages

Total approx. 80 and over 200 dialects

Main Languages Amharinya (official), Oromiffa, Tigrinya, Sidamic, Afar, Somali

Religion

Muslim 50% (estimate as no official figures available)

Christian 40% (mainly Orthodox Christians)

Social Data2 Infant Mortality (per 1000 births) 117

Maternal Mortality

(per 100.000 life births) 1.400

Life expectancy ("at birth“) 43.9 years

Access to health facilities 50-79%

Medical Care (physician per 100.000) 4

Adults living with HIV/AIDS 6,41%

Access to clean potable water 24%

Access to sanitary facilities 15%

Adult literacy rate 43,9%

1 UNDP, Human Development Report 2002 2 UNDP, Human Development Report 2002; see also Annex 3 for partially different data

Characteristics: Extreme agricultural and climatic diversity due to its altitude and proximity to the equator

Ethnic Composition: Oromos (ca. 40%), followed by Amharas (ca. 30%) and approx. 76 other nationalities, (among others Somali, Tigrai, Afar, Sidama, Gurage, etc.)

English: applied as the official second language, though regional languages are accepted as official languages and taught in primary schools

Social Figures: among the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa and the world

Calorie Intake: dropped by 14% from 1980 up to 1992, "Stunting figures“ (Height to Weight Ratio) have increased continuously from 60% in 1983 to 64 % in 1992 and to over 68 % in 95/96

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School enrolment ratio 27%

Adult literacy rate) 39,1%

Human Development Index 0.327 (ranking 168 out of 173)

Human Poverty Index Rank 87, 56.5%

Membership in international organisations: COMESA, ECA (headquarters in Addis Ababa), IDA, IGAD, IMF, AU, UN, and WB

2.2 Political Developments since 1991

1991 May Surrender of the Ethiopian army in Eritrea, dictator Mengistu flees to Zimbabwe, US-supported peace negotiations in London, EPRDF (Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front) occupies Addis Ababa

July Constitutional conference called by EPRDF, establishment of Transitional Government of Ethiopia (TGE) with Meles Zenawi as President

TGE publishes economic policy

1992 TGE-proclamation on the establishment of self-governing regions

June Regional elections, dominated by the EPRDF

Withdrawal of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) from the "State Council“

Oct. Devaluation of the national currency ETB and deregulation of agricultural trade

1993 April Referendum in Eritrea

May Eritrea becomes an independent nation

Introduction of "auction for foreign change“

TGE-proclamation on rights and duties of federal and regional authorities

1994 New constitution

1995 May National and regional elections

Establishment of the "Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia“

1997 Introduction of a separate currency in Eritrea (Nakfa). Ethiopia decides that trade with Eritrea should be conducted in hard currency

1997/98 Increase of tensions at the Ethio-Eritrean border with the first armed clash in the Northern part of the Afar region

1998 May After a border incident in the area of Sheraro on May 6th, Eritrean troops occupy the Yirga triangle, which encloses Sheraro, on May 12th, as well as other areas along the border.

1998 up to July Sporadic clashes at various parts of the border with reciprocal air attacks. In Mekele, Northern Ethiopia, 59 children are killed during an air attack of a school. The armed conflict subsides during July.

1998 June Both countries start evicting nationals of the other country. The evacuation of many Ethiopians from Eritrea in 1993, immediately after Eritrea's independence,

Historical Relations: Relations between the comrades in arms of TPLF (Ethiopia) und EPLF (Eritrea) during the liberation struggle against the military dictatorship have never been free of tensions. The conflict had many reasons, one of which is apparently to be seen in the eruption of old differences.

Since 1991, positive developments despite the continued absence of a truly democratic opposition, and the allocation of key positions in both central and regional governments to EPRDF confidence persons

For both states, (at the lowest end of all indices) the conflict is self-destructive under present conditions, both economically and with a view to their political image and development goals.

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apparently serves as an emotional catalyst in Ethiopia.

1998 Peace efforts by the OAU, UN and other brokers, which started from the onset of the armed conflict, culminate in the OAU conferences of Ouagadougou I (2 Aug.) and Ouagadougou II (7 Nov.), with the adoption of a "Framework Agreement“ and its "Modalities“. Though Ethiopia accepts both documents, Eritrea defies acceptance.

1999 Feb Ethiopia starts an offensive to recapture the Yirga triangle, whereupon Eritrea accepts the "Framework Agreement“ and the "Modalities“.

Nov OAU-conference in Algiers: Eritrea accepts the ensuing "Technical Arrangements“. Ethiopia first demands comments and later on changes.

2000 29 April First indirect negotiations between Ethiopia and Eritrea at foreign ministerial level bear no fruits.

14 May Elections for federal and regional parliaments

18 June After intense fighting resulting in gains of land by Ethiopia, both countries sign a cease-fire agreement in Algiers.

12 Dec Peace Agreement of Algiers signed in the aftermath of which UNMEE was established in 2001

2002 13 April The independent Border Commission for Ethiopia and Eritrea announces its verdict on border delimitation.

2003 January Increasing delay of demarcation process as Ethiopia finds it difficult to accept the border decision.

2.3 Political and Institutional Establishments

Official Name Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

Form of State & Government Parliamentary Federal Government, parliament consisting of two chambers

State President Girma Woldegiorgis (since October 2001)

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, EPRDF (since August 1995, 1991-95 Federal President)

Administration 9 self-governing federal regions: Tigray, Afar, Amhara, Oromia, Somali, Benishangul/ Gumuz, Southern Nations, Nationalities & Peoples, Gambela, Harar; autonomous city of Addis Abeba and special zone of Dire Dawa; subdivision into Awrajas (zones), Woredas (districts) and Kebeles (town districts)

2.4 Economy3

Ethiopia is – also in economic terms - in a transitional period, which can be categorised into five phases: civil war (1986-1991), stabilisation (1991-1995), reconstruction (1995-1998), conflict with Eritrea (1998-2000) and resumption of development policies since then. The period after the signing of the cease-fire agreement in Algiers (18 June 2000) can be seen as a post-

3 WB, IMF, Economic Report for Africa 2002 (UN-ECA), see also Annex 3

The Self Government of regions is politically and financially heavily restricted through wide-spread control of the regional governments by the EPRDF and their dependence on budgetary allocations from federal budgets. Decentralisation is supposed to give increased powers to lower levels of administration.

GDP per capita annual growth rate 1990-2000 2,4%

Trade Deficit (% of GDP) including ODA 91-95 -5.9% 95-98 -3.6% 98-00 -5.4%

The 2nd Elections lead to the expected victory of the ruling party (EPRDF), though with an increased number of elected representatives from opposition parties. The access to government media granted to opposition parties prior to the election is considered as a positive development.

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conflict phase. During the period after 1991, some achievements have been made in the transformation of the command economy into a quasi market economy with a growing, albeit still small, private sector.

Structural reforms aim particularly at a more efficient utilisation of resources, the strengthening of legal and institutional framework conditions, as well as the integration of the Ethiopian economy into the world economy.

A significant, although unrealistic, part of the strategy adopted by the Ethiopian government consists of reducing poverty by doubling per-capita income within 15 years. This, however, would presuppose a reduction of the population growth rate from 3% to 2.5% and an annual economic growth of 7-8%. Food security, strengthening of the social sector and the improvement of infrastructure are regarded as the corner stones of this strategy.

Against the background of the “cold peace” with Eritrea and increasing food insecurity at household level, the donor countries regard the achievement of these targets as rather ambitious. The growth rate for 2003, forecasted by the IMF at –1,8% is not encouraging either.

At the beginning, the Ethiopian government was highly successful in curbing inflation, which was achieved, among other measures, through a drastic cut in military expenditures and a simultaneous increase of social and infrastructure spending. Military expenditures, which increased once again since 1998, due to the conflict with Eritrea, could initially be compensated through extra-budgetary resources. At the beginning of the conflict, the government was still able to finance the increase in military expenditure transparently with a minimum impact on overall budgetary allocations.

However, the negative effects became apparent after 1998 with figures for military expenditure between 8.1% up to more than 10%. Other parameters such as trade deficit and reduction in foreign currency reserves consequently become critical and macro-economically less sustainable. The trade deficit was 5.8% in 2000. This represents an abrupt diversion from hitherto expressed macro-economic practices of the government, with vast impact at all economic levels.

The policy of the Ethiopian government encourages private/foreign investors. Since 1991, numerous restrictions on the private sector have been removed and various reforms have been introduced.

In the long-term, private investments are hoped to have a 20% share in the GDP. As everyone agrees, however, this requires the reduction of regulatory measures and drastic reductions in tiresome registrations and bureaucracy, which very often are viewed as significant barriers during entry.

The WB and IMF criticise the very slow pace of the liberalisation and privatisation process. A structural adjustment program (ESAF), being implemented as of 1992, had to be interrupted in 1997 due to diverging opinions with respect to structural reforms and implementation criteria. A compromise was finally reached in 1998 with the adoption of a new three-year framework program. The Ethiopian government meanwhile continued independently with the macro-economic stabilisation. The program was again interrupted in 1999, apparently under the effects of macro-economic destabilisation caused by the conflict

The prudent opening-up of Ethiopia, particularly with respect to international capital markets, seems more than justified in view of the experiences made in Russia and Eastern Asia.

Foreign debt, at about 10 billion US$ until 1998 has been reduced to 5,55 billion US$ in 1999 but still represents a heavy burden for the Ethiopian economy. Ethiopia has been qualified for the HIPC initiative by the IMF after the military conflict with Eritrea had been resolved. Therefore 47% of Ethiopia’s external debts have been forgiven.

GDP Shares (00/01) Agriculture 53% Industry 12% Trade 7% Services 30%

Inflation 90-93 20% 94-97 2.3% 97-98 2.5% 99-01 2,0% Military Expenditure (% GDP) 86-91 9.6% 91-95 2.7% 95-98 3.0% 98-00 7.5% 00-01 9,5%

Trade Deficit (% of GDP) excluding. ODA 92-95 -8.7% 95-98 -6.7% 98-00 -7.3%

Major Exports Coffee, chat, hides & skins, animals, gold

Major Imports Vehicles, machinery, aircrafts, grain and food commodities, metals and metal products, crude oil and artificial fertilisers

Foreign Trade withAustria (in Mio. €s) Exports ’98 5,43 Exports ’00 3,33 Exports ’01 2,99 Imports ’98 4,30 Imports ’00 1,40 Imports ’01 0,43

Foreign Dept 1998 152,2 % GDP 32% of exports 2000 43,9% GDP

13,6% of exports

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2.5 Poverty With an average per-capita GDP of US$ 100, Ethiopia is considered as one of the poorest countries in the world. The national per-capita calorie consumption is found at 1954 calories, well below that of 2200 calories as recommended by the WHO. The national poverty line in Ethiopia is stated at US$ 165 per capita, and henceforth is significantly lower than the international poverty line of 1 US $ per day. 45% of the Ethiopian population are found below the national poverty line. The income disparities seem significantly lower than in other developing countries, despite statistically low-income levels, which are by far lower than those of other Sub-Saharan Countries. Priority is given to the eradication of absolute rather than relative poverty.

2.6 Regional Context

IGAD “Intergovernmental Agency on Development“ (former IGADD): Member States: Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya, and Uganda. With the support of various donors, attempts have been made to revitalise IGAD. However, an effective cooperation seems rather unlikely as a result of prevailing political relations between member states.

AU The "African Union“ was established in July 2002 during a Summit in Durban/South Africa. It will finalise its transitional stage in July 2003, during the AU-Summit in Mozambique. With its headquarters in Addis Ababa its new organisational structure is modelled alongside the one of the EU. Its organs will comprise among others a Commission, an Executive Council, a Peace and Security Council, a Court, Parliament and an African Central Bank.

COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, i.e. the successor of the former PTA (Preferential Trade Area). This regional organisation was founded in December 1994. It is an organisation of 21 independent nations. The goal of the organisation is cooperation in developing natural and human resources, focussing mainly on the development of large economic and trade entities.

Statistical Data Per Capita GDP 110 US $Calorie Intake 1954 Nat. Poverty Line 165 US$, 45% below the national poverty line Ethiopia is found at the lowest level of almost all social and economic indicators.

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3. Status of Ethiopian Economic Development

3.1 Problems of Ethiopian Economic Development

According to international reports (WB, EU, and UN), the key problems of Ethiopia are described as follows:

(1) The per-capita GDP of 100 US $ is less than ¼ of the Sub-Saharan average. Poverty is rampant and markedly visible with a very high rate of malnutrition.

(2) Limited access of the population to clean potable water (24% in 2000), sanitary facilities (15% in 2000), access to essential drugs (50% in 2000) and enrolment in primary education (35% in 1998), the latter compared to the SSA average of 77% of youth literacy in 2000.

(3) Lack in food security at household level as a result of recurrent droughts (average of two years now), soil degradation and structural problems.

(4) After many years of civil war and negligence, the level of infrastructure facilities is found below that of similar countries. Ethiopia has the lowest road density among the countries of SSA. Less than 10% of the population have access to electricity.

(5) Still a considerable debt burden although the country qualifies for HIPC.

(6) Inadequately developed private sector, dependence on official financing sources, lack of foreign private investments. Ethiopian per-capita exports are among the lowest in the world, characterised by lack of diversification and concentration on very few products such as coffee, chat and skins.

(7) High population growth rate and therefore increasing poverty and unemployment.

Moreover, there are the following political risks:

(1) Continuation of a simmering, albeit not military conflict with Eritrea (“cold peace”). The border is still closed; trade is interrupted, no direct flights possible.

(2) The peace process in Somalia develops very slowly if at all. The forthcoming war in Iraq could lead Ethiopia to renewed attacks on Somalia under the pretext of fighting terrorism.

(3) Very slow progress in the improvement of human rights situation and the establishment of democratic institutions. Members of the (legal) political opposition face many problems, which leads to increased tensions in the population. The more important opposition groups are declared “illegal” and fought as “terrorist” groups.

In the short-term, problems can be expected due to:

(1) Limited institutional capacities, despite concerted efforts in this area

(2) Sluggish bureaucracy, which tends to focus on control rather than on promotion

(3) Increasing tension on the border to Eritrea over interpretation of decision of the Ethiopian/Eritrean Border Commission

(4) The consequences of a war against Iraq on Ethiopia with its over 50% of Muslims are difficult to predict.

Net Direct Foreign Investments in 2000: 0,8% of GDP Saudi Arabia is source of 60% of FDI; the EU is second largest source with about 30%

In 2000 Ethiopia had the lowest stock of capital per worker ($441) in Africa. The country’s road and telephone networks have some of the lowest densities on the continent. Output per worker (§268) was second lowest in Africa

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3.2 Development Policy of Ethiopia (SDPRP)

Ethiopia’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Program (PRSP) called Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Program (SDPRP) was endorsed by IMF/WB in September 2002. The following Consultative Group Meeting in December 2002 (first since beginning of the war) led donors to pledging financial resources of 3.6 billion US$ over the next three year period 2002/3 – 2004/5.

The SDPRP seeks to promote a rapid and broad-based growth by focusing on rural development and improvement in physical and human capital as well as deepening the devolution process to empower the poor and expand the choices and control that people have over their lives. Specifically, the poverty head count ratio is projected to decline by about 10 percent from the 1999/00 level of 44 percent to below 40 percent at the end of the poverty reduction strategy program period in 2004/05. To achieve this, real GDP is targeted to grow by at least 7 percent annually during the program period.

While recognizing the seriousness of the challenge, GoE is also committed to meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015. Over the longer term, it is estimated that the Ethiopian economy will need to grow by 5.7 percent per annum in real terms until 2015 to meet the MDG of reducing poverty by half from its current level.

The SDPRP is built upon four pillars.

Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI): As 85 % of the population is employed in agriculture this long-term strategy seeks to achieve economic development by making use of technologies that are both labour intensive and augment land productivity, such as the increased use of fertilizer, better seeds and improved agricultural practices. As the low level of urbanization in Ethiopia limits domestic demand for agricultural products, agriculture must be made internationally competitive, so that surplus agricultural output can be exported. In an agrarian economy such as Ethiopia, the resources for the development of the industrial sector need to be generated via primarily creating strong bondages between agriculture and industry.

Decentralization and Empowerment: To deepen the decentralization process, the government’s strategy is to empower districts as the centre of socio-economic development. In particular, this relates to primary education, primary health care, rural water supply, rural roads and agricultural extension. In four regions (SNNPR, Amhara, Tigray, Oromia), devolution to the district level has been under preparation since July 2002. To ensure their autonomy, districts are given a block grant to cover recurrent and some capital expenditures. Since local capacity is the major constraint in the decentralization process, the zonal level of government is being dissolved, and staffs are being sent to districts. A large-scale capacity building program as well as a robust system of recording, reporting and monitoring expenditures is to be implemented.

Reform of the Justice System and the Civil Service: To address the many capacity constraints that hinder the performance of public institutions in Ethiopia, the government embarked on a comprehensive Civil Service Reform Program in 1996. Key “second-generation” reforms seek to strengthen capacity at the regional and district levels, to improve coordination across line ministries and between levels of government, enhance incentives for behavioural change among civil servants, and establish benchmarks against which to measure impact.

Capacity Building: This program is designed to support ADLI, reform of the judiciary and civil service as well as decentralization and empowerment and is a coordinated effort to develop human resources, build and strengthen institutions, and establish more effective working practices.

Harmonisation At present, each multilateral and bilateral donor in Ethiopia applies different rules and procedures in its approval, disburSiment, procurement, monitoring and evaluation, and reporting systems. These, in turn, increase the transaction costs for government and reduce the speed, efficiency and effectiveness of externally funded projects and programs. As a result, the overall level of disburSiment per capita is low.

Medium term macroeconomic goals

(1) Reorientation of budgetary resources towards poverty reducing sectors

(2) Laying the foundation for a strong revenue performance through the tax reform program

(3) Monetary and financial sectors reforms

(4) Capacity building and regulatory reforms to promote private sector development

Budget Support The government sees it as a more efficient instrument for aid delivery since it can: reduce transaction costs, enhance the significance of the domestic budget system, increase the predictability of aid, focus on public sector performance and accountability and create a better basis for policy dialogue between government and donors.

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3.3 Problems of the SDPRP

Under the umbrella of the Development Assistance Group (DAG), a Joint Partner Review of the SDPRP was undertaken, which identified the following major shortcomings:

Like many other government and donor policies the SDPRP suffers the lack of a clear linkage between analysis and policy choice. A greater desegregation of results (e.g. by livelihood group - pastoralists, specific urban groups etc - and gender) and greater analysis of past policies (i.e. what worked – what didn’t?) as well as the use of qualitative poverty data would have helped to determine causes of poverty and therefore enabled such a linkage.

As set out in the SDPRP the indicator matrix should be an unambiguous measure of progress. However, there are important gaps in terms of missing themes and sectors (e.g. private sector development, trade and export, democratisation) and missing either short or long-term indicators (e.g. food security is measured only by final outcome i.e. food poverty headcount, agriculture is measured only by short-term outputs e.g. fertiliser and seeds used). Furthermore the government considers these targets and indicators (other than those related to HIPC triggers) as serious ‘declarations of public intent’ but not as ‘binding commitments’.

The role of various government institutions in monitoring and evaluating progress is clearly set out. However, whilst there are statements in the text offering non-state actors a role in monitoring, reviewing and evaluating the SDPRP, which would broaden ownership of the overall process and add to the credibility through independent observation, the nature of this role and specific mechanisms are left unclear.

Crosscutting issues (such as HIV/AIDS, gender and environment) are not well integrated. Targets and indicators for these issues also suggest limited commitment.

Although civil society organisations, private sector representatives and individual citizens (i.e. non-state actors) actively participated in the consultation process, this had little impact on policies proposed. Furthermore there is little clarity as to how participation of non-state actors in policy, planning and monitoring of the SDPRP will be institutionalised.

The SDPRP states that empowerment is a core value and explicitly recognises the links between democracy, good governance and development. But no strategies for promoting empowerment are explicitly set out such as creating an enabling environment for active civil society and promoting continued participation in policy and planning. Furthermore there is no commitment to holding national, regional and local elections that fall within this SDPRP cycle in a democratic manner.

The SDPRP says little specific about enhancing freedom of expression and freedom of association. Although reforms in the justice system are mentioned as a major aim, there are no explicit commitments e.g. to change the culture of impunity among local administrators, to overcome the excessive length and inefficiency of the judicial process, to end the practice of detention without trial and to stop the ill-treatment of street children.

The unprecedented and ambitious programme of decentralisation, under which some fifty per cent of federal budget will be transferred to regions and districts offers great opportunities but also threats. Success will depend on the ability of the government to mobilise qualified staff to lower tiers of government, that democratic decentralisation accompanies fiscal decentralisation and that the interaction of devolved district-level planning with federal and regional policies are clearly defined.

The ADLI strategy emphasises inputs (e.g. fertilizer supply, improved

The (In) Famous Six Draft Laws Contrary to the tone of the SDPRP, but in view of the 2005 elections the government tries to ensure control over large parts of society through a series of laws, which were presented in 2003, and, if endorsed in their draft forms, would mean the end of civil society as well as decentralisation in Ethiopia. NGO Law: restricts through stringent licensing procedures and new tax regulations the work of international and local NGOs even further than before Press Law: ensures that the independent press has no access to information and looses its economic base Information Law: makes any independent monitoring or evaluation of the SDPRP impossible by prohibiting data collection except by the Central Statistical Authority and data evaluation except by the Welfare Monitoring Unit of MoFED Chamber of Commerce Law: inserts EPRDF dominated professional associations into the Chamber, thus destroying its independence Municipality Law: reverts decentralisation by putting regional capitals under direct control of central government Intervention Proclamation: allows central government to suspend regional governments and take over control

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seeds). The demand side is not properly addressed. Recent experience in Ethiopia has shown how increased production, in the absence of functioning markets, can result in severe fall in prices and a further impoverishment of farmers.

The SDPRP presents the existing government position of sedentarisation as a long-term goal for pastoralist development without taking into account the many negative experiences in other countries.

Contrary to the emerging global discourse on social protection (e.g. World Development Report 2001/2), the SDPRP argues that its pro-poor growth strategy makes redundant a need for additional safety nets. Yet at least 4 million people in Ethiopia require relief assistance in any given year irrespective of climatic shocks, are therefore unable to enter - and benefit from – the growth process and would need an asset protection system to prevent further destitution.

The private sector development section lacks a clear analysis of bottlenecks and whilst a large number of policy intentions are described, no indication of priorities or indicators is given. Although the importance of export for pro-poor growth and poverty reduction is stressed, trade policy is not included in the SDPRP.

3.4 International Development Cooperation with Ethiopia

During the five-year period, for which reliable data are available4, Official Development Assistance (ODA) accounted for some 13 percent of the Ethiopian GDP, which is considerably higher than the average of Sub-Saharan Africa, around 6 percent. On the other hand at 12.8 percent, per capita ODA flows to Ethiopia are just under one half of that for the continent as a whole. A number of other important features of ODA flows to Ethiopia during this period include the large amount of donor flows being channelled into humanitarian/relief assistance and the declining trend in the grant portion of ODA.

This is especially disquieting, as Ethiopia’s debt-to-export ratio has risen sharply, since Decision Point under the Enhanced HIPC Initiative was reached in November 2001. Due to new exchange rates, discount rates and export prices the debt stock far exceeds the 150% debt-to-exports threshold at Completion Point and will remain at an uncomfortably high level for several years. Therefore build up of new debt should be prevented and assistance should, as much as possible, be on grant terms. Several donors have reacted to this situation by increasing considerably their grant based development assistance, especially in form of direct budget support (EU, Sweden, WB, DFID; with Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium and Norway contemplating to join).

The EU member states, as well as the European Commission, play a major role with a combined share of over 40% of the total assistance. Canada, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the US are the major bilateral donors, with Austria ranking at the lowest end in terms of volume.5

Donor coordination is expressed on the Embassy level through the OECD Ambassadors Group and on the Cooperation Offices level through the Development Assistance Group (DAG), a consortium of 24 bilateral and multilateral agencies, which has several Technical/Thematic Working Groups. In 2001 the establishment of the DAG Core Group (DAG CG) as a coordinating mechanism for support to the PRSP led to a further

4 UNDP, Development Cooperation Report 2002 5 An overview of ODA flows to Ethiopia 1997-2003 is given in Annex 1.

Total ODA in Millions of US $ 1997 606 1998 674 1999 731 2000 919 2001 1078 Average 1997-200 1 813 2002 1448 2003 1583

Urban v. Rural Development In view of the limited absorption capacity of the habitable land for the exponentially growing population many donors criticize the lack of a coherent urbanisation policy, which specifically would address the growth of small and medium urban centres. ADC’s Subprogram Energy tries to build a link between rural and urban development.

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intensification of coordination with weekly meetings and a pooled funding mechanism for the PRSP process managed by UNDP. DAG CG has become the major coordinating mechanism between donors and for developing joint positions towards the Ethiopian government. It keeps playing a vital role in the harmonisation debate and the development of the New Partnership Architecture. This architecture, which was basically endorsed by the Ethiopian government in early 2002, foresees quarterly meetings of the High Level Forum (MoFED/DAG), a permanent Secretariat and subsidiary groups which will deal directly with line ministries on content (e.g. health, education) and process (e.g. monitoring, harmonisation). Thus, existing coordinating mechanisms e.g. for the Health Sector Development Program will be integrated. As the architecture is still evolving the final number and TORs of the subsidiary groups is not yet decided.

In view of the intensive work in the DAG CG, donor coordination between the EU Commission and its member states, which existed as a pilot project since 1994, has lost some of its impetus. It has been taken up again in the first half of 2002 with the purpose to harmonise and adapt cooperation arrangements to the extent possible.

With respect to NGOs, Ethiopian government policies aim at channelling the entire funds collected on behalf of the beneficiaries to the respective target groups. NGOs with funds, who do not need funds from other donors, are given preference. The bilateral financing of NGOs is not accepted by the government and hence cannot be taken up during bilateral negotiations. The Ethiopian government puts great emphasis on streamlining NGO activities with the development priorities of the federal government, regional administrations and the needs of the population.

3.5 Coordination of Development Cooperation by Ethiopia The Ministry for Finance and Economic Development

(MoFED) has the overall responsibility for economic planning and coordination of external resources.

With the exception of emergency aid, which is entrusted to the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC), MoFED is also leading in the coordination of bilateral and multilateral development cooperation (see New Partnership Architecture in chapter 2.4).

Since the introduction of decentralisation, the regional administrations have the leading role in the implementation of projects at operational level. A further decentralisation of this role to the district level is foreseen but still hampered by lack of capacity. The line ministries are responsible for national or cross-country projects as well as for technical matters.

Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) Austrian NGOs are particularly encouraged to work within the framework of NGO- and EU co-financing.

MoFED MoFED is also responsible for recording grants and calculating the deductions from the regional budgets. However, the inadequacy of this system encourages donors as well as regions not to disclose grants.

Donor Coordination Real operational donor and donor/government coordination was found only in the Sector Development Programs but will be enhanced and enlarged through the New Partnership Architecture.

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4. The hitherto existing Austrian Cooperation

4.1 Bilateral Relations between Ethiopia and Austria

The prospects for a new start in Ethiopia since 1991 influenced the bilateral political relationships with Austria. Initially these had positive effects on the intensity of diplomatic visits. However, the reciprocation of the official visit of Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin in May 1996 to Austria could not be realised before the outbreak of the conflict with Eritrea in May 1998. As the conflict is under control the bilateral visit auf Austria’s Minister for Foreign Affairs is overdue now.

Austria has successfully worked on building a positive image and intensifies this with a set of cultural activities. In December 2002 a two week multi-media event on “Mountain Cultures”, has been organised which was followed by an equally long one on “E-Migration/I-Migration” in cooperation with the Swiss and German Embassies as well as the University of Addis Ababa in May 2003. In July 2003 a Workshop and Exhibition on “Preservation of Cultural Heritage” will follow, this time in cooperation with the Czech Embassy and the Addis Ababa University

The training of journalists was continued albeit on a smaller scale with training of Ethiopian radio journalists in Austria.

The series of seminars on diplomatic law in the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry conducted in 1997 and 1998 by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been complemented by other seminars such as “International Law of the Sea” and “International Humanitarian Law” in 2001 and 2002 respectively.

Despite a marked revival of foreign trade between Ethiopia and Austria during the past years, there is room for improvement of economic relationships between the two countries. Major steps in this direction was the first mission of an Austrian economic delegation in February 1998 which will be followed by the one in 2003 and Austria’s participation at the Ethiopian economic trade fair in April 2000, 2001 and 2002.

The special relationship established through development cooperation between Ethiopia and Austria creates a positive image, which will also benefit Austrian firms. Furthermore, some projects provide opportunities for direct participation of Austrian consulting, planning and manufacturing companies. Although different primary motives are in the forefront, the development cooperation contributes its share in the improvement of economic relations.

4.2 Development and Structure of Austrian Development Cooperation

Economic relationships between Austrian firms (Voith, ELIN) and Ethiopia date back to the sixties. Austria granted development aid to Ethiopia in the sixties (Imperial Body Guard Hospital, training courses for police and customs officers, assignment of two music professors, Heeding and Zellwecker). Actual development cooperation, however, started with the signing of a loan agreement during the visit of Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister to Vienna in 1984 for the supply of machinery and equipment for the Gilgel Gibe hydropower plant

After a phase characterised by individual activities, the necessity of a structured approach for development cooperation became apparent in 1993, when Ethiopia was upgraded as a priority country. In May 1996, a bilateral framework agreement with Ethiopia was concluded, with AEDC beginning

AEDC 1996 Bilateral

framework agreement and establishment of AEDC

98-2000 First Country Program

98-2000 Health and Energy Subprograms

2001-03 Second Country Program with Subprograms in Food Security, Health, Energy and Gender/ Democracy

Private Economic Partnerships This new tool of Austrian Development Cooperation should increasingly be applied in Ethiopia.

Cultural Activities have so far been organised mainly by the Austrian Embassy. In the future AEDC envisages cultural activities as part of the Subprogram Gender & Democracy.

Diplomatic Visits The Ethiopian visit at foreign ministry level should be reciprocated as soon as possible.

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work during the same year. Subprograms on health care and energy, along with guidelines for the subprogram on gender and democracy followed after the formulation and approval of the first country-program (1998 – 2000). In the scholarship program, emphasis was placed on capacity building of academic staff of selected universities. The second country program (2001-2003) consisted of subprograms in food security, health, energy and gender/democracy.

4.3 Performance and Mode of Austrian Development Cooperation

With the exception of the loan agreement for the Gilgel Gibe hydropower plant, all contributions made by the Austrian Development Cooperation were in the form of grants.

The volume of contributions between 1990 and 1995 amounted to an average of 1,8 Million €. In 1996 the amount of contributions was raised to 2,8 Million € per year with an intention to further increase contributions gradually. However, as a result of political developments in Austria and consequent budget cuts the average yearly expenditure lies between 2 and 2,5 Million € since 1999.

Recent cooperation was based on the country program 2001-2003 and identified the following focal regions and subprograms:

Subprogram Subprogram Subprogram Subprogram

Area Energy Health Food Security Gender & Democracy

Focus Management, Hydropower

PHC, HSDP Livestock, Bio-Mass, Resource Protection

Projects

Emphasis National Somali Region Amhara Region National

4.4 Evaluation

The disbursement of funds over the last two country programs was rather sluggish due to the complicated approval process as well as slow reporting by the Ethiopian counterparts on the one hand and the above mentioned budget cuts from Austrian side on the other.

The local evaluation of projects has been regularly applied and led to several redesigns. Tendering is increasingly being used for parts of the program.

The selection of the subprograms has proved to be appropriate and consistent with recent developments in Ethiopia’s development policy (SDPRP).

4.5 Activities of Private Organisations

Mr. Clauda and an institution that supported him undertook selected interventions in the fight against leprosy in the seventies. The first boost has been noted in 1984/85, where big aid organisations such as CARITAS, Volkshilfe, the Red Cross, the Malteser Orden and others provided more than 7 million €. SOS-Children’s Village International and “Menschen für Menschen” are the only big and financially independent NGOs that have been continuously represented in Ethiopia for long periods. Since 1996, activities of NGOs have been increasing within the framework of NGO and EU co-financing. In this respect, it is worth mentioning Care Austria, Horizont 3000, Caritas Feldkirch, Hope 87, Don Bosco Action Austria and Christoffel Blindenmission. Furthermore, Caritas Feldkirch is represented through self-financed projects in Addis Abeba and Awassa.

Deployment of Funds The planned gradual increase of funds could not be realised due to several budget cuts in the overall Austrian development budget since 1999.

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5. Austrian Development Cooperation 2004-2006

5.1 Austrian Development Aims and Principles

The three-year Austrian Development Cooperation Program 2004 – 2006 sets the following basic aims and principles, which also guide this country program: poverty alleviation, peace and human security, democracy, environment, ownership/partnership, integration into the socio-cultural environment, gender, social development of the economy, coordination.

5.2 Objectives of Programming

The Country Program 2004 – 2006 is the third country program for Ethiopia. The goal of this program is the consolidation and continuation of the cooperation with Ethiopia in four subprograms by improving coverage on the one hand and quality through focussing on the other hand. Crosscutting issues (gender, environment, poverty) play an important role through the application of checklists and coordination with other donors. Tendering, evaluation and complimentarity (scholarship program, scientific pool, NGO co-financing) are important tools.

5.3 Developmental Approach of Cooperation with Ethiopia

Ethiopia is a priority country for bilateral development cooperation.

The number of hitherto defined subprograms and focus regions will be maintained. As Ethiopia is prone to natural disasters a solution for an Austrian contribution to emergency relief will have to be found. This contribution will have to be financed outside the foreseen budget for the country program but should be given in ways and areas which are consistent with this program and based on existing expertise.

In continuation of a development that already emerged during the first country program contributions should increasingly be made at program level in government-promoted sector development programs. This, however, presupposes a corresponding political environment, which must be favourable for the allocation of budgetary grants.

The following funds, subject to budgetary provisions, have been earmarked as indicative figures for the program:

Budget Line ET

Co-financing

Scientific Cooperation

Education Program

Multilateral Projects (UNIDO)

Total Million €

2004 4.0 0,3 0,07 0,5 0,35 4.82

2005 4.2 0,3 0,07 0,5 0,35 5.12

2006 4.4 0,3 0,07 0,5 0,35 5.42

∑2004-2006 12.6 0,9 0,21 1,5 1.05 16.26

The country program will be financed through grants and soft loans. For the Budget Line (BL) Ethiopia an optimistic scenario of low increases for the coming years is foreseen. Out of the BL of 12.6 million € for Ethiopia, 10 million € are defined as tied indicative core program to MoFED. The remaining amount is to be reserved as an open budget line for budget increases that are not yet accorded with MoFED.

The expenses anticipated for NGO co-financing are based on actual figures of the previous country program and account on the average for 10% of the budget for Ethiopia. The expenses for scientific cooperation and the education program will be covered by the budget of the MFA Development Cooperation Sub-Department for Scholarships and Education. The costs for the education program include also the indirect study costs. The multilateral projects refer to projects already approved by the MFA Multilateral Development Cooperation Department.

Additional ways of cooperation are to be sought for economically attractive projects with the support of both AEDC and the Austrian Embassy.

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5.4 Focussing

On the basis of experiences with the implementation of the last country program and four workshops on the revised subprograms the following cooperation field matrix can be deduced:

Subprogram Subprogram Subprogram Subprogram

Area Health Food Security Energy Gender & Democracy

Focus

Primary Health Care

Health Sector Development Program

Animal Husbandry

Natural Resources

Alternative Income Generation

Capacity Building for Basic Organisations

Hydropower

Management Support to EEPCO

Strategic Interests and Practical Needs of Women

Democratisation and Respect of Human Rights

Indicatively tied X X X BL/ET (Million €) 3.45 3.42 4.86 0.87

Methodical Implementation

Project-, Program Aid

Additional Tools Scientific Pool, Education Program, NGO Co-financing

The subprograms on food security, health, energy as well as gender and democracy were approved for the period 2000 – 2003. For the current third country program, these subprograms therefore only require updating or focus adjustments.

5.4.1 Overall Program

Sequence of Objectives according to the "Logical Framework"

Rational for Interventions Objectively Verifiable Indicators

Sources of Verification

Assumptions

Overall Goal

Contribution towards poverty alleviation in Ethiopia

Poverty Indicators National and International Statistics

SDPRP will be implemented successfully with increased donor support.

Purpose 1. Contribution towards the improvement of the health status of the Ethiopian population 2. Contribution towards improvement of food security in Ethiopia 3. Contribution towards improvement of electric power supply 4. Contribution to the promotion of human rights by strengthening endeavors for democratization and gender equality

National, social and medical indicators Economic indicators Improvement of the condition of marginalized groups

WB, UN, MoH, HSDP, CSA, MoFED, Expert's Studies

The health policy remains unchanged. MoFED approves the projects and forwards them for promotion. The government is committed to the promotion of human rights, democratization and gender equality.

Results 1. Health systems in the Somali region with focus on primary health care within the HSDP are improved 2. The capacity of rural households to generate income is strengthened 3.1 Electric power distribution access increased 3.2 Appropriate institutional set-up and sufficient human resource achieved 4.1 Awareness on human rights, democratization and gender equality created, capacities of government and civil society enhanced.

Regional and project -relevant social and medical indicators Increase in additional income (%), reduction in the poverty of the population (%) Micro-hydropower plants and amount of electric energy sold (capacity) EEPCO capacity increase in generation, transmission and distribution Increase in capacity and quality of development programs addressing gender equality,

Evaluation of Austrian activities

SRHB capacities and the political- and security situation of the Somali region do not deteriorate. Nation-wide food security strategy is implemented. MoFED approves the projects and forwards them for promotion. The society is committed to the democratization process, the respect for human rights and gender equality.

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Rational for Interventions Objectively Verifiable Indicators

Sources of Verification

Assumptions

4.2 Gender-sensitive policies and laws formulated and proclaimed, economic empowerment of women increased

practical and strategic needs of women, and human rights Changes of legal structures and societal attitudes responsible for the discrimination of women

The overall goal of bilateral development cooperation from 2004-2006 is the alleviation of poverty in Ethiopia, where by emphasis will be put on the areas of health, food security, energy and gender & democracy. Education programs, scientific cooperation and NGO co-financing are designed as complementary tools for augmenting the above mentioned subprograms.

The achievement of targets in the Subprogram Health is based on the second Health Sector Development Program (2003-2006) of the government. The HSDP has been jointly designed and implemented with donor countries under the auspices of the World Bank. The Austrian contribution is characterised by the financing of the SRHB and external implementation of projects.

The Austrian contribution in the Subprogram Food Security focuses on increasing agricultural production and income generation. In addition, activities in rural development, forestry and biomass will continue to be carried out. As in the previous country program, biomass is treated as a source of livelihood and income, rather than being confined to resource protection and fuel-wood generation.

The Subprogram Energy concentrates on hydro electric-power generation, with emphasis on increasing the hydropower generation capacity to bridge the gap between the rising annual average total demand for electricity (7.9%) and the limited supply (0.67%). This is to be tackled through the expansion of micro-hydropower plants within the framework of rural electrification (<1000KW, average 300KW), deployment of experts for the technical support of hydropower plants as well as management of the national electricity utility company.

The Subprogram Gender & Democracy aims at the strengthening of the democratisation process and the promotion of gender equality. With regard to gender, this is to be achieved through interventions aimed at increasing awareness, support of legal change, policy improvement and implementation, capacity building, support of research activities, promotion of women organisations and many more. Both strategic interests and practical needs of women are considered. Within the framework of other subprograms, gender-mainstreaming instruments are applied at all stages of project planning, implementation and evaluation. Interventions in the area of democracy concentrate on supporting NGOs, independent media, research institutions, as well as documentation centres in order to enhance an enabling environment in the area of human rights and democratisation.

5.4.2 Subprogram Health

Sequence of Objectives according to the "Logical Framework"

Rational for Interventions Objectively Verifiable Indicators

Sources of Verification

Assumptions

Overall Goal

Contribute to the improvement of the health status of the population of Somali region

National social and medical indicators6

Reports of MoH, SRHB, WHO/UNICEF, HSDP

The health policy remains unchanged

Purpose Contribute to the sustainable development and strengthening of the health system in the Somali National Regional State with a focus on Primary Health Care services within the framework of the current government Health Sector Policy

Increase of health service coverage (%)

Increase of immunization (EPI) coverage (%)

Increase of TT2 coverage for

Reports of partner agencies, MoH, SRHB, HSDP

Regional and project related statistics

SRHB capacity and the political- as well as security situation of the SNRS do not deteriorate

No major natural or man-made disaster

6Health indicators as presented in the MoH Health Information Booklet should be taken with precaution since reliable and accurate baseline data for the Somali Region are largely not available and would most likely show significantly higher rates/ratios.

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Rational for Interventions Objectively Verifiable Indicators

Sources of Verification

Assumptions

mothers (%)

Elimination of Polio (certification by the International Polio Commission)

Results Institutional and technical capacity of SRHB and ZHD strengthened Initiatives of the regional government to decentralize health system to selected districts materialized according to plan Complementary initiatives to the governmental health care system supported Pastoralist Health Care program implemented as part of a pilot integrated pastoralist development program materialized Disaster prevention by SRHB enhanced Attitudinal change on harmful traditional practices initiated Activities on mainstreaming of gender in health are well initiated A well-coordinated HIV/AIDS prevention and control activities initiated

Education and status of personnel (%)

Increased health service coverage (% of population)

Priority objectives within HSDP accomplished (%)

Study result on PHC (number)

Improvement of supply with essential drugs (%)

Position of women at and above the level of team in SRHB and ZHDs (%)

Attitude and behavior of the target community

MoH, SRHB, HSDP-reports

Less frequent changes in SRHB management personnel to enhance smooth HSDP implementation.

The district elections will take place as planned and the political commitment to decentralization is sustained.

Non-parallel, sustainable, alternative initiatives complementary to the governmental services will be tolerated, supported and proposed by GoE and SRHB. The frequency and severity of emergencies will be in manageable range.

Activities Assistance to the implementation of HSDP implemented directly through the SRHB Complementary projects through NGOs Initiatives on pastoralist health care programs Emergency and disaster assistance Activities focusing on Harmful Traditional Practices Support activities focusing on HIV/AIDS prevention and control

Education and status of personnel (%)

Increased health service coverage (% of population)

Priority objectives within HSDP accomplished (%)

Study result on PHC (number)

Improvement of supply with essential drugs (%)

Position of women at and above the level of team in SRHB and ZHDs (%)

Attitude and behavior of the target community

MoH, SRHB, HSDP-reports

SRHB presents yearly proposal.

Accountability and appropriate funding utilization is realized as outlined in the five-year framework

SRHB’s plan to upgrade the Jijiga Junior Health Professional School to a senior level and establish Gode Junior Health Professionals School is approved and supported by federal and regional government.

The civil service reform program gives solution to the critical shortage of technical and administrative staff at various level of the health system.

The results of the pilot integrated pastoralist development program are utilized to expand the initiative to other areas in the region and implementing agencies with proven experience and expertise are given adequate room for collaboration.

The Subprogram Health enjoys high priority in the development agenda of Ethiopia. It has also been one of the focal areas of cooperation between the two countries since 1985, which has led to a high level of awareness on the presence of Austrian assistance in the Somali region.

The targets of the subprogram are based on the 2003-2006 Health Sector Development Program (HSDP II) of the government. The HSDP has been jointly designed and implemented with donor countries under the auspices of the World Bank. The financing of the SRHB and external implementation of projects, focussing on primary health care with priority being given to pastoralist health care and traditional harmful practices, in

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particular female genital mutilation, characterize the Austrian contribution. The regional focus is in the Somali region. The overall financial limit is set at 3.45 Million € from the budget line earmarked for Ethiopia.

At the HSDP level, the interrelation of the four crosscutting issues is to be ensured through the participation of the AEDC Health Program Officer in donor/government coordination activities. At project level, the crosscutting issues are to be treated as follows7:

Environment: AEDC performs the EIA in cooperation with local partners, although few direct environmentally relevant interventions are expected.

Gender: Gender mainstreaming at the level of AEDC is carried out in cooperation with local partners and through complementary project activities within the framework of the Subprogram Gender & Democracy. Starting point is the definition of target groups, while a reform of a male-dominated health structures should be initiated in the long term.

Poverty: Evaluation of the contribution towards poverty alleviation at AEDC level is done in cooperation with local partners. In general, primary health care is regarded as a direct intervention towards poverty alleviation, in addition to the choice of the Somali region, which is considered as one of the poorest regions in Ethiopia.

Democracy: Monitoring of the political situation and participatory aspects of the projects in the Somali region.

At the level of intervention, the assistance in the subprogram is aimed at both program and project support. A combination of interventions within the HSDP (channel 2 through SRHB) through sub-contracting of projects to external implementing organisations is anticipated. The activities within the HSDP are defined through the 3-year bilateral agreement with MoFED (2004 -2006).

The reasons for sub-contracting to external organisations are lack of capacity at the level of the SRHB. The award of contracts is exclusively based on tendering. The content of sub-contracted Austrian project interventions will be agreed upon with SRHB and integrated into the HSDP. Conformity with the content of the HSDP is a basic precondition for new activities.

In case of natural disasters, a re-allocation of ADC funds can be considered, provided that the financing of the emergency assistance is limited in time and space.

The parties involved are the AEDC Health Program Officer and the MFA Country Desk with backup by an MFA Health Consultant being a recurrent unresolved issue.

A brief annual evaluation and a final closing control of projects through local and/or Austrian experts are standard practise.

5.4.3 Subprogram Food Security

Sequence of Objectives according to the "Logical Framework“

Rationale for Interventions Objectively Verifiable Indicators

Sources of Verification

Assumptions

Overall Goal

Contribution towards improvement of food security in the country as well as poverty reduction as an ultimate goal

Social and Poverty Indicators at country level

CSA, districts (relevant data and statistics)

Food security and poverty reduction remains a priority for the government.

Purpose Strengthening the potential of rural households in the generation of additional income and to improve access to food

Increase of additional income (%) Poverty reduction of population (%) Increase access to food (quantity and quality) (%)

Project reports, monitoring and evaluations

Government gives priority to an enabling environment, capacity building and human resource development

Results Park management and community based tourism development in a sustainable manner strengthen Livestock productivity increased and quality of livestock products improved Marketing possibilities assessed and improved Improvements towards preservation and

Increase of rural households applying intensive agriculture (%) Increase in quality of agricultural and livestock production (%) Improved marketing systems in place

Project reports, monitoring and evaluations

Implementation of intervention goes smoothly Improved linkages and networks between individual

7 See 7.3

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Rationale for Interventions Objectively Verifiable Indicators

Sources of Verification

Assumptions

sustainable management of natural resources achieved Access to land and other resources increased and appropriate land use put in place Off-farm activities promoted and income generation possibilities increased Tree-coverage in intervention areas increased and potential for fuel wood and energy saving tools enhanced Institutional development and human capacity of basic organizations at all levels enhanced

systems in place Reduction of soil degra-dation and increase of afforestation (%) Increase in income (%) Increased farmer’s security for land Improved land use and watershed management in place Increase in fuel wood production (%) Capacity of basic organizations strengthened (%)

measures are established Integration within existing framework can be achieved

Activities Integrated Livestock Development Project (ILDP) Enhance the availability of feed and access potentialities for distribution Improve animal health situation Improve genetic potential of local cattle Promote fattening of small-scale cattle and improve sheep and milk processing Improve marketing systems Strengthen environmental protection Promote small scale income generation activities Improved veterinary service to gharry horses Increase awareness of the community in veterinary and feed needs

Area under improved forage increased (%) Soil fertility improved (%) Distribution to other areas initiated Mortality rates of animals decreased (%) No. of improved animals increased (%) Overall number of cattle reduced Length of treated gullies increased (km) No. of cattle and sheep fattened increased Amount of milk collected and milk processed in-creased (%) Amount of dairy pro-ducts marketed increased (%) Marketing information and networking in place Horses used for the eco tourism (%)

Project reports, monitoring and evaluations

The consumer market is able to absorb the growing supply of animal products The consumption habits at household level will improve No major outbreaks of livestock diseases occurs All required staff is in place The political and social situation will allow the project to implement its activities unimpeded The Amhara Regional Tourism Commission will be interested in developing eco-tourism initiatives

Activities Simen Mountains National Park -Integrated Development Project (SMNP-IDP) Develop park management Community based tourism development on a sustainable basis Increase agricultural livelihood basis of communities intensified and productivity per unit area Increase production and consumption of additional products Facilitate small scale irrigation schemes and water harvesting measures for agricultural production Rehabilitate and conserve natural resources in the project areas Establish fuel wood plantation and introduce and distribute energy saving stoves Enhance capacity of communities and concerned institutions for conservation and development in the project areas Strengthen capacities and skills of local

Reduction of pressure (cattle grazing, expan-sion of farmland, settle-ments) in park area (%) Increased income from tourism (%) Productivity and potentials of farming systems in selected project areas improved Availability of additional products (fruits, vege-tables) for home con-sumption and at market places Increased access to water for agricultural production (%) Biomass coverage increased (%) Time to collect fuel wood reduced (%)

Project reports, monitoring and evaluations

Exceptional weather conditions do not occur. Peace and stability of the project area and the country will remain. The farmers will accept introduction and dissemination of new technologies. The Amhara Regional Tourism Commission will be interested in developing eco-tourism initiatives. The community will be interested in equine-based

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Rationale for Interventions Objectively Verifiable Indicators

Sources of Verification

Assumptions

administration and institutions Strengthen trekking route and increase income of the surrounding community Enhance eco tourism activities

Increased demand for improved stoves (%) Increased awareness of religious leaders, com-munity and community associations (%) Implementation, follow-up and monitoring capa-city of administration units improved (%) Eco tourism communities organized/registered

eco tourism (trekking) as an environmentally sensitive income generating activity.

Activities Program Coordination and Facilitation (will be specified during planning) Institutionalize information and experience exchange between Austrian interventions as well as with other donors active in the area Enhance networking between the different stakeholders as well as concerned capacity building endeavors

Ongoing and regular information and experience exchange Networks established and capacities strengthened (%)

Project reports, monitoring and evaluations

Stakeholders are willing to cooperate and share information.

Activities Land Use Management and Administration (will be specified during planning) Increase farmer’s security to land and other assets Promote appropriate land use management suitable to the area Initiate land use planning Increase necessary skills

Land allocation system, registration and certi-fication in place Farmers have certifica-tion for their land (%) Appropriate land use management systems in place Land use plans available Technical and practical skills for land use planning and management increased (%)

Project reports, monitoring and evaluations

Government policy remains in favor of land use policies. Directives including rights and obligations concerning land will be in place.

Ethiopia is one of the most food-insecure countries of the world. Despite an increase in food production (food self-sufficiency by and large reached at country level since 1996), especially in rural areas an increasing number of the Ethiopian population is threatened with food insecurity. Consequently, Ethiopia has become one of the main recipients of international food aid. Food security is therefore given the highest priority in the development policy of Ethiopia.

A corresponding food security strategy, initially developed in December 1996, has been revised in March 2002 to improve access to food for those segments of the population living in chronically food-insecure districts. Major components of this program are the increase of agricultural production in food deficient areas, investment in a number of employment generation possibilities, rural development and the balancing of surplus and deficit area markets.

The Austrian contribution will aim at increasing agricultural production and the creation of income generating opportunities. Activities will continue in the already successful intervention area of animal husbandry. In addition, activities in rural development, forestry and biomass will continue to be implemented. As in the previous country program, biomass is treated as a source of livelihood and income, rather than being confined to resource protection and fuel-wood generation. The Amhara region is the focal area with an overall amount of 3.42 Million € being earmarked from the budget line for Ethiopia.

At the FSP level, the interrelation of the four crosscutting issues is to be ensured through the participation of the AEDC Food Security Program Officer in donor/government coordination activities. At project level, the crosscutting issues are to be treated as follows8:

Environment: AEDC performs the EIA in cooperation with local partners.

8 See 7.3

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Gender: Gender mainstreaming at the level of AEDC is carried out in cooperation with local partners, and through complementary project activities within the framework of the Subprogram Gender & Democracy. Starting point is the definition of target groups, while a reform of a male-dominated agricultural and social structure should be initiated in the long term.

Poverty: In general, poverty in Ethiopia is mainly related to food poverty; thus interventions in this subprogram are regarded as a direct intervention towards poverty alleviation. Evaluation of the contribution towards poverty alleviation at AEDC level is done in cooperation with local partners.

Democracy: Monitoring of the political situation and participatory aspects of the projects in the Amhara region.

A combination of national execution with disbursement under Channel 3 is envisaged, which represents direct payment by the donor agency or its agent. Aid through this channel may also be targeted to any of the administrative levels of government. Projects of the subprogram have their own offices for project implementation. This arrangement is based on mutual agreements between ADC and the Amhara Regional Bureau of Agriculture (BoA) and is believed to facilitate the day-to-day decision-making process being necessary for carrying out activities. Ethiopian counterparts, such as the BoA, will implement individual projects, while AEDC oversees that execution is carried out according to the respective signed agreements. Each project is subject to bilateral approval through MoFED and therefore forms an integral part of the Ethiopian-Austrian Indicative Country Program 2004-2006.

The ADC parties involved are the AEDC Food Security Program Officer, the MFA Country Desk and the MFA Rural Development Consultant.

A brief annual evaluation and a final closing control of the projects through local and/or Austrian experts are standard practise.

5.4.4 Subprogram Energy

Sequence of Objectives according to the "Logical Framework"

Rational for Interventions

Objectively Verifiable Indicators

Sources of Verification

Assumptions

Overall Goal

Improve standard of living of the population by extending and optimising the use of modern and sustainable energy sources in order to contribute to economic self-reliance and balanced development in Ethiopia

National social and energy indicators

Reports from the government, EEPCO, UNDP, WB, REF

The priorities in the energy strategy of the Ethiopian government remains unchanged

Purpose Improve access to electricity in rural areas; Promote an appropriate institutional set up & sufficient human resource both in quality & quantity

Increase in supplied or saved electric energy (%) Increase in self reliance of the community Business plan executed & targets achieved by EEPCO

Assessments, surveys and project reports

MoFED approves the projects and forwards them for promotion The newly established organisations are fully operating The newly established organisations have an adequate capacity A positive environment for the participation of the private sector is maintained

Results Access to electric power in rural areas through improved mini/micro hydropower plants enhanced. Modern hydropower plants & rural supply technology transferred and staff qualified. Relevant studies conducted. Operational performance of EEPCO enhanced by making it a first class utility. Modernisation of organisational structure of

Construction of micro- mini hydropower stations initiated Local stakeholders for Aweto and Bonora HPP show willingness to pay and contribute to investments Defined economic efficiency (kWh sold per employee) Duration of outages Number of new additional customers

Project reports The electric co-operatives are organised successfully and funds for implementation of mini hydropower projects identified

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Rational for Interventions

Objectively Verifiable Indicators

Sources of Verification

Assumptions

EEPCO achieved. Reliable supply of energy at the right time at an affordable price assured.

Studies conducted

Mini Hydropower Development Preparation of detail design, specifications and tender documents for mini/micro hydropower plants; Establishment of proper tariff structure, detailed financial and economic analysis including billing and bill collection mechanisms as well as cash flow programs; Preparation of feasible ownership, operations and management structures; Preparation of capital contribution and investment schedules; Analyse issues related to different licensing based on the changing institutional framework for off-grid mini/micro hydropower plants.

Detailed mini hydropower plant design prepared Existence of financial flows and tariff structures

Project reports The electric co-operatives are organised successfully and funds for implementation of mini hydropower projects identified

Activities

Management Contract Program Modernising EEPCO’s organisational structure; Introducing new technology and strengthening the supply network; Enhancing the ability of EEPCO’s staff and management; Enhancing EEPCO’s financial performance.

Achievement of targets of a first class utility

Project reports The positive working environment and priorities remain unchanged

The per-capita consumption of energy in Ethiopia is one of the lowest in the world. The supply of energy is characterised by an extreme dependence on biomass (95%). The remaining sources are petroleum products (4.3%) and hydropower (0.7%). This unbalanced energy consumption, characterised by a massive use of biomass and on the other hand under-utilisation of hydropower, causes increasingly severe deforestation, soil degradation and erosion with negative consequences particularly on the environment and agricultural production. The application of crude oil products consumes a big portion of the foreign currency income, covering a very small percentage of the energy consumption. The sustainable development of the country in other subprograms is therefore jeopardised or is even doomed to fail, unless substantial changes occur in the energy consumption patterns of Ethiopia.

The Subprogram Energy therefore mainly focuses on hydropower and the management contract of EEPCO with an overall amount of 4.86 Million € being earmarked from the budget line for Ethiopia. Emphasis is particularly put on increase of capacity in order to bridge the gap between the rising annual average total demand for electricity (7.9%) and the limited supply (0.67%). This is to be tackled through the expansion of micro-hydropower plants within the framework of rural electrification (<1000KW, average 300KW), deployment of experts for the maintenance and rehabilitation of small- up to large- hydropower plants and the education and training of personnel. Implementation is principally concentrated on Oromia and SNNPR, due to their specific hydrological potential, whereby focal areas have been determined through feasibility studies based on their conditions and financial as well as social viability. The program addresses peri-urban communities that do not currently have access to electricity. The management contract will focus on the implementation of the designed business plan designed and proposed to EEPCO after an extensive study.

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The financing of this program is to be carried out through a soft loan of 3.0 million €. In case such financing scheme is not found to be feasible alternatives are to be developed from other financing sources.

The long years of Austrian involvement in the energy sector of Ethiopia imply good contacts and working relations. The comparative advantages of Austria in the energy sector are to be exploited and strengthened during the coming three years.

At the energy policy level, the interrelation of the four crosscutting issues is to be ensured through the participation of the AEDC Energy Program Officer in donor/government coordination activities. At project level, the crosscutting issues are to be treated as follows9:

Environment: AEDC performs the EIA in cooperation with local partners.

Gender: Gender mainstreaming at the level of AEDC is carried out in cooperation with local partners.

Poverty: In general, the subprogram contributes to poverty alleviation by providing access to electricity to peri-urban communities. Evaluation of the contribution towards poverty alleviation at AEDC level is done in cooperation with local partners.

Democracy: Monitoring of the political situation and participatory aspects of the projects in the regions of intervention.

At the level of implementation, a combination of national execution with sub-contracting of program- and project-components to external implementing organisations is to be considered. The reasons for outsourcing to external organisations are to be found, among others, in capacity deficiencies at public administration level; i.e. a company or a consultant will be directly responsible for project implementation to relieve public institutions. The award is based on tendering.

The ADC parties involved are the AEDC Energy Program Officer, the MFA Country Desk and the MFA Energy Consultant.

A brief annual evaluation and final project closing control by local and/or Austrian experts are standard practise.

5.4.5 Subprogram Gender and Democracy

Sequence of Objectives according to the "Logical Framework“

Rational for Interventions

Objectively Verifiable Indicators

Sources of Verification Assumptions

Overall Goal

To contribute to the promotion of human rights

Improvements of the position of disadvantaged groups

Studies conducted

The government is open to the promotion of democratization, human rights and gender equality.

Purpose To strengthen endeavors for democratization To promote gender equality

Institutions working in the field of democratization Change in structure attitude and practice that enhance gender equality

Project evaluations

The society is open to the process of democratization, human rights and gender equality.

Results Public awareness created, and changes of attitudes on human rights, particularly on gender equality, democratization, development and their inter-linkages enhanced. Gender sensitive policies drafted and/or proclaimed. Gender equality, women’s needs and human rights adequately addressed through enhanced capacity of civil society and through direct project interventions. Economic empowerment of targeted disadvantaged

Improvement of political, social, and economic indicators Number and quality of gender-sensitive policies drafted and/or adopted. Increase in the capacity and quality of development programs that address gender equality, practical and strategic needs of women, and human rights. Number of women economically

Publications, statistics and surveys Policy documents and guidelines Assessment reports and degree of civil society’s visibility and their role in enhancing respect for human rights Project monitoring and evaluation, project reports

9 See 7.3

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Rational for Interventions

Objectively Verifiable Indicators

Sources of Verification Assumptions

women increased. i empowered by projects

project reports

Activities Public educational programs over the national or regional media. Community awareness raising and civic education. Facilitations of policy revision / drafting discussions at national and regional levels. Capacity building, including training activities and support of strategy development, of development practitioners in NGOs and government. Support for research activities on human rights and gender equality. Support for individuals, institutions and government bodies that work on the elimination of harmful traditional practices. Support for activities geared towards achieving economic independence of targeted women at community level. Support of economic empowerment of women through the promotion of service-giving associations and institutions. Support for activities geared towards exploring the culture-development nexus and its links with the promotion of human rights and gender equality.

Basic respect for human rights, and the promotion of gender equality is reflected in a number of key policy instruments of the Ethiopian government. Nevertheless, the practical implementation of these basic values leaves much to be desired.

The Subprogram Gender & Democracy desires to contribute to the fulfilment of these commitments, which also reflect key concepts of development practice as defined by the OEDC countries. The subprogram also aims to improve the framework conditions in which development efforts take place. The direct strengthening of civil society on the one hand, and the promotion of collaboration between government and civil society actors on the other hand creates links that ultimately follow the same goal, that of reducing poverty and enhancing a democratic society, in which all citizens are able to enjoy their rights.

Based on the experience of the past five years, the gender component of the subprogram focuses on the promotion of strategic interests and practical needs of women. This is achieved through interventions both at policy level as well as with organizations that target grass-roots communities. Interventions in the first area focus on support of legal change, awareness raising and the promotion of organizations that focus on enhancing gender equality by lobbying for the creation of a more positive societal framework for women. Practical needs of women are supported by assisting organizations that provide social services (otherwise not available to target women and their communities) as well as support the economic empowerment of women.

Within the framework of the other ADC subprograms in Ethiopia, gender as a crosscutting issue will be integrated by measures aimed at increasing understanding of basic gender concepts and gender mainstreaming as a strategy to promote project implementation success.

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In the democracy component of the subprogram interventions focus on supporting both government and civil society organizations in endeavours geared to increase respect for human rights, the promotion of good governance and democratisation in general. The role of the independent media, research institutions, and documentation centres in the area of human rights and democratisation and cultural institutions is explored and taken into account.

In both areas, capacity building is seen as one of the key strategies to achieve the subprogram goals.

The Subprogram Gender & Democracy was approved by MFA in September 2001 and updated in June 2003.

There are no regional limitations and the crosscutting issues poverty and environmental protection will be taken into account both during the inception and implementation of projects by AEDC in cooperation with local partners.

The volume of finance will be 870 000 € from the budget line for Ethiopia, not exceeding the annual upper limit of 72 600 € per project.

Implementation patterns for the Subprogram Gender & Democracy are the same as for the Scientific Cooperation Pool. A 2 year pool fund of 581 000 € is approved by MFA and periodically renewed. Individual subprojects are funded out of this pool. Responsibility for financial administration of the pool project lies with GPR in Vienna, while AEDC selects implementation partners for subprojects or initiates projects in line with the subprogram policy matrix. AEDC is also in charge of project monitoring, evaluation and reporting to GPR. Project partners can be government or non-government actors, including NGOs, CBOs, professional associations, institutions or, if suitable, individuals.

The ADC parties involved are the AEDC Gender and Democracy Program Officers, the MFA Country Desk and the MFA Gender Consultant, who provides expert back up and assists AEDC in the definition of priority areas of involvement. Close collaboration with the Austrian Embassy in Addis Ababa has been fruitful and will be continued in the future. The subprogram is not based on a formal agreement with MoFED, as GoE does not endeavour to carry responsibility for cooperation between NGOs and foreign donors.

5.5 Methodology for Implementation

5.5.1 Regional Focussing

A regional focus is only applied in the Subprograms Food Security and Health.

The Subprogram Health concentrates on the support of the regional HSDP of the Somali region, partly implemented by government institutions, partly by NGOs. Maintaining the focus on the Somali region, which has traditionally been regarded as an Ethiopian periphery, is of great importance, particularly in view of poverty and democratisation considerations.

In the Amhara region, the Subprogram Food Security has been hitherto active in the North Gondar zone. In view of the limited budget this concentration should be kept and strengthened (e.g. inclusion of bio mass project into SMNP-IDP).

Activities in the Subprogram Energy will be conducted at national level. Depending on the results of the Mini-Hydropower project a focal region could be defined at a later stage.

The purpose of the Subprogram Gender & Democracy is its openness to proposals from all over Ethiopia. No regional focus is therefore foreseen.

5.5.2 Program Component Education and Science

Although the program component has its independent objectives (developing know-how and strengthening of institutions) and its orientation follows the sector policy on education, it should be applied particularly as a supportive and supplementary tool in the cooperation areas outlined under 5.4.

The program component will not be negotiated under the indicative framework program with MoFED, since only tied resources are to be dealt with in this agreement.

Scientific Cooperation Pool

Scientific Cooperation has been designed as a funding tool complementary to the cooperation areas outlined in 5.4 and the educational program with focus on direct support for Ethiopian research activities. Thus, subprojects that either complement the subprograms or address one of the crosscutting issues directly are given priority for funding. Support to the education program is given through co-financing of thesis research

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projects for Ph.D. scholars, funding of Masters thesis research papers of scholars of the Innsbruck School of Public Health, the financing of Masters thesis research papers for staff members of higher institutions in a variety of fields, funding of seminars and/or conferences in and outside of the country and the support of related publications. The applications should focus on non-material support, though applications for the acquisition of hardware may be submitted in certain cases. Priority should be given to demand, in view of addressing the concerns of Ethiopians with relations to Austria.

The building of scientific networks is also an integral part of the scientific pool. An example in this regard is the integration of community health courses at the Innsbruck and Addis Ababa Universities. The general objective is facilitating quick decisions on applications as well as ensuring the quality and achievement of goals in the partner country. The pool further aims at strengthening scientific networks with former scholarship holders, their institutions and their Austrian Universities. It encourages and supports ex-graduates to initiate more cooperation and scientific exchange programs.

The earmarked volume of funds is set at about 70,000 €, with an upper limit of 7,000 € per agreement. The scientific pool is to be financed from the ADC education budget line.

Although GPR administers the scientific pool, potential project partners should submit their proposals to AEDC, which will evaluate the proposals based on pool guidelines. Upon the approval of the project proposal, AEDC shall enter into an agreement with the Ethiopian counterpart and release the funds on instalment basis. Each finalised project will be subject to a self-evaluation by the Ethiopian counterpart and a final evaluation by AEDC.

The parties in charge are the AEDC Education Program Officer, the MFA Development Cooperation Sub-Department for Scholarships and Education, GPR and an Ethiopian auditor accredited by the government.

Education Program

Educational cooperation with Ethiopia focuses on the tertiary sector with specific emphasis on the promotion of Ethiopian scholars through Ph.D. and short-term research scholarships, of which annually there are about ten of the former and five of the latter. In addition, several short courses are offered in a variety of fields, which are designed for an international student body; language of instruction is therefore English.

Since 1999 a new approach takes into account priorities defined by GoE in the area of education, supports selected institutions with the implementation of their staff development plans and intends to provide opportunities that will facilitate inter-university cooperation between Ethiopia and Austria. Crosscutting Issues (Gender, Environment, Poverty Eradication, Democracy & Good Governance) as well as ADC priorities are taken into consideration as selection criteria. Female candidates are given priority wherever possible. Therefore the following program is foreseen: (1) Ph.D. scholarships will be primarily accorded to the four partner universities Addis Ababa University:

(2 scholarships per year, not limited to one particular faculty), Alemaya University (1-2 scholarships per year, promotion of the newly established Faculty of Education), Ethiopian Civil Service College Addis Ababa (2-3 scholarships per year with focus on the Faculty of Business Administration) and Mekelle University College Tigray (2 scholarships per year with focus on the Faculty of Technology).

(2) Scholarships for short courses will be given for courses in Community Health (This one-year course takes place at the School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Innsbruck with 2 scholarships per year reserved for Ethiopian candidates), Hotel & Tourism Management (For this eight-month intense program at the Institute of Tourism and Hotel Management Klessheim 1-2 Ethiopian students are selected every year), Peace & Development Studies (The three-month course by the European Peace University Burg Stadtschlaining accepts 1-2 Ethiopian candidates), Groundwater Tracing Techniques (1-2 Ethiopian candidates participate at the six-weeks summer course at the Joanneum Research Institute, Technical University Graz, which takes place every two years), Limnology (Usually 1-2 candidates drawn from the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ethiopian Agricultural Research Organization are chosen for the six-month course for biologists/limnologists at the Institute of Limnology Mondsee) and Mountain Forestry (This new two-year M.Sc. program is given at the Vienna University of Agricultural Sciences with 1-2 Ethiopian candidates accepted every year preferably from the Amhara Agricultural Research Centre).

(3) For short-term research scholarships (3-12 months) candidates from partner institutions are encouraged to apply.

The parties in charge are the AEDC Education Program Officer (acquisition, pre-selection and increased post monitoring), the MFA Scholarship Board and MFA Development Cooperation Sub-Department for Scholarships and Education.

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5.5.3 Co-financing

The bilateral /EU co-financing of projects by Austrian NGOs and companies (private partnership) follows the decreed MFA and EU guidelines. AEDC will give comments on respective applications with specific emphasis on their complimentarity. The required documents such as quarterly reports, information on awards and financial statements from project partners should be submitted to AEDC.

5.5.4 Operational Coordination with other Donors

AEDC participates in the New Partnership Architecture10. Furthermore coordination in the program areas (North Gondar, Somali region) is to be enhanced through specific projects (e.g. Program Coordination and Facilitation Project of the Subprogram Food Security) or by inclusion of this task into running projects (CCM as health ‘coordinator’ in Gode and Libaan zones).

5.5.5 Project-, Program Assistance, Budget Support

To date, ADC has been limited to projects as well as program assistance through parallel financing of projects within Ethiopian sector development programs. In view of the limited financial possibilities direct program aid (either through a pool or directly to national government institutions) as well as direct budget support are not foreseen.

10 See 3.5

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6. Medium-Term Implementation

The medium-term implementation aims at appropriate structures within the Austrian Development Cooperation with respect to the volume of finance and the development level of Ethiopia. This entails the efficient implementation of the above-mentioned focal programs and the development of locally adapted activities, which promote the development of local capacities rather than their replacement or suppression.

6.1 Areas of Emphasis

The areas of emphasis are defined by sector and region (see chapter 4.4). The implementation will be carried out in the form of projects, whereby pools can also be applied. Program aid should remain an option in cases of appropriate economical and political conditions. Complementary activities, which have the function of supplementing subprogram interventions at project level, are found in the scientific pool and the education program.

6.2 Administrative Operationalisation

AEDC and the MFA Development Cooperation Section have the administrative responsibility for the implementation of the country program. AEDC manages the project cycle independently as much as possible and oversees the individual subprograms of the country program. MFA has the function of backstopping and focuses on design parameters, while the actual project work is being carried out on site.

The most important legal instruments for the bilateral cooperation are the basic framework agreement, the Austrian-Ethiopian Indicative Country Program 2004-2006 and bilateral project agreements.

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7. Considerations on Sustainability

The sustainability of the country program will be ensured particularly through attention given to crosscutting issues. The long-term impact of ADC interventions in Ethiopia is to be secured through these quality criteria.

7.1 Promotion of Peace

Conflict prevention is a major principle of ADC. This principle is to be realised and implemented at project- and program-level. Within the scope of conflict prevention, local capacities should be employed as an early warning system, with discussions on conditionality being conducted at program level in the event of armed conflict. The level at which and whether a de-escalation of conflicts can be enforced or whether Austrian interventions contribute directly or indirectly towards violent conflicts should be investigated. In the medium- and long-term, Austrian engagement in the area of democracy should promote conflict prevention.

7.2 Appropriate Technologies

In the projects, new technologies will be introduced only after having safeguarded adequate training along with economical operation and maintenance of the respective technologies.

7.3 Crosscutting Issues

7.3.1 Environment

An Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is obligatory for all ADC programmes and projects. All project interventions have to be checked by project partners against a list of environmental criteria at the planning stage, thereby providing information if important principles of environmental impact have been considered for the project in question. AEDC personnel can assist project partners in applying this EIA checklist. The consulting company “wpa-beratende ingenieure” in Vienna is to be integrated in this process and will also give comments and recommendations, based on the information provided.

Instead of the EIA checklist, it is also possible to incorporate relevant information in the draft project document in order to enable wpa to make recommendations. Wpa should receive all relevant information at an early stage of the planning process, with two weeks minimum to give a qualified response. In case of major comments or issues that have been overlooked, the project document must then be adjusted accordingly in collaboration with the partner.

EIA reports form part of the final project file, recommendations made will be given priority during project implementation. AEDC and the MFA Country Desk ensure that all stakeholders of the project receive complete information on these issues.

7.3.2 Gender

Gender mainstreaming is obligatory for all programmes and projects. All project interventions have to be checked by project partners against a list of gender criteria at the planning stage, thereby providing information if important principles of gender equality have been considered for the project in question. As a result of this analysis, a gender marker is assigned to the project (DAC marker for gender equality: marker two is given to projects aiming to promote gender equality as a principal goal, marker one to projects aiming to promote gender equality as a significant goal, and marker zero if no goals for promoting gender equality have been formulated). AEDC personnel can assist project partners in applying the gender checklist. The consulting company “wpa-beratende ingenieure” in Vienna is to be integrated in this process and will also give comments and recommendations.

Instead of the gender checklist, it is also possible to incorporate relevant information in the draft project document in order to enable wpa to make recommendations. Wpa should receive all relevant information at an early stage of the planning process with two weeks minimum to give a qualified response. In case of major comments or issues that have been overlooked, the project document must then be adjusted accordingly in collaboration with the partner.

Gender reports form part of the final project file, recommendations made will be given priority during project implementation. The DAC markers become part of the short project information. AEDC and the MFA Country Desk ensure that all stakeholders of the project receive complete information on these issues.

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Aside from forming a part of the approval procedures, gender mainstreaming is monitored during project implementation, and evaluation teams must include a gender expert in order to assess the impact of measures taken and to make recommendations for the continuation of a project.

7.3.3 Poverty

Poverty alleviation is defined as the overall goal of Austrian cooperation with Ethiopia. Therefore, all subprograms aim to contribute to this goal through improvement of social service delivery and the promotion of gender equality as well as the democratisation process in the country. This is further enhanced through capacity building in the scholarship and scientific cooperation programs. All project interventions have to be checked by project partners against a list of poverty criteria at the planning stage, thereby providing information if the main goal of the project is poverty reduction.

7.3.4 Democracy

Although participatory democracy and good governance have been adopted as one of the crosscutting issue of the Austrian Development Cooperation, their application as a mainstreaming tool has been difficult. This is in part due to the fact that no mainstreaming checklist has been developed so far and in part, because the concept of a rights-based approach to development cooperation is not yet fully understood. In this program democracy/good governance is specifically addressed in the Subprogram Gender & Democracy. In all subprograms strengthening of the capacity of civil society actors in the country plays a major part.

During the planning period of 2004-2006, AEDC will continue to implement projects in the area of democracy/good governance with both government and non-government partners as outlined in the subprogram. In addition, it is planned to continue collaboration and information exchange with the Austrian Embassy Addis Ababa in the area of monitoring the human rights situation in Ethiopia and to share experience with other donors.

7.4 Socio-Cultural Aspects

The culture of Ethiopia is respected and preserved as a treasure. Interventions, which undermine cultural values, will not be undertaken as long as they do not stand in contradiction with other basic principles. In the case of e.g. contradictions between human rights and culture, the former should prevail.

Furthermore, an open cultural approach is to be aimed at, implying that culture cannot be preserved in its original form in a globalised world, but is kept alive only by inter-changes. Therefore, the active preparation for external influences and the strengthening of local reception capacities should be promoted, rather than emphasising on the preservation of hereditary values of culture.

7.5 Development of Capacities

The interventions of the country program are designed to take strong roots in the Ethiopian structures. In this regard, it is important to give due attention to education and the development of capacities, rather than aiming at high degrees of goal achievements within short periods of time. The interventions have to be developed therefore in cooperation with the partners and their respective pace.

7.6 Economic Viability

The sustainability of activities ultimately depends on whether local structures are economically strong enough to independently continue interventions. Development, which aims at the eradication of poverty, should not overtax the economy, but must rather establish new services such as health care and energy supply on a sound financial basis. This can only be achieved if the running costs of investments are considered and the general macro-economic framework conditions are observed.

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Annex 1 Overview of ODA Flows to Ethiopia 1997-2003 11

Bilateral Development Assistance by Donor12

(in Millions of US $) 1997 1998 1999 200 2001 2002 2003

Average 1997-2001

% Average

Austria 2.44 2.9 3.53 2.17 3.82 3.22 3.54 2.97 0.81%Belgium 3.55 6.52 2.33 8.17 13.22 7.41 9 6.76 1.84%Canada 15.84 22.21 27.26 16 16.37 16.75 17.14 19.54 5.32%China 0.1 13.06 1.92 0.56 13.62 2.42 0.43 5.85 1.59%Finland 6.75 7 5.91 NA NA 4.1 4.95 3.93 1.07%France 7.35 11.19 9.9 1.07 1.14 2.6 5.93 6.13 1.67%Germany 35.79 16.83 19.55 24.01 17.77 15.21 17.92 22.79 6.20%Greece 1.36 1.36 0.06 0.1 0.11 0.04 0.01 0.6 0.16%India 0.31 0.09 0.03 0.06 0.13 0.04%Ireland 13.5 15.31 14.46 16.23 18.61 22.13 32.19 15.62 4.25%Israel 0.38 0.27 0.44 0.68 0.27 0.11 0.04 0.41 0.11%Italy 20.35 7.77 25.84 36.53 6.36 27.45 61.41 19.37 5.27%Japan 43.94 38.51 29.9 41.5 45.05 42.31 45.83 39.78 10.83%Korea 0.88 0.98 1.09 0.44 0.12%Kuwait 25.33 10.3 0.0004 0 17.82 4.85%Libya 1.01 1.31 1.7 2.2 1.16 0.32%Netherlands 18.96 24.47 26.74 5.56 16.76 21.09 10.75

18.5 5.03%Norway 25.55 26.7 12.15 13.42 15.65 21.66 20.99 18.69 5.09%Spain 0.3 0.36 0.72 0.15 0.37 0.05 NA 0.38 0.10%Sweden 14.35 24.05 9.51 0.86 15.74 16.14 17.6 12.9 3.51%Switzerland 4.74 4.4 1.85 2.81 1.33 0.63 0.3 3.03 0.82%United Kingdom

0.74 4.65 5.63 9.37 20.67 20.31 37.5

8.21 2.23% United States of America

47.22 74.81 49.49 362.92 177.7 119.15 101.3

142.43 38.76%Total Bilateral

263.21 302.37 247.19 568.76 397.14 345.48 390.18 367.44

11UNDP, Development Cooperation Report 2002 12For the period 2000 to 2003 disbursement figures were estimated or projected for donors who did not make their data available.

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Multilateral Development Assistance by Donor13

(in Millions of US $) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Av. 1997-

2001 % Av.

FAO 2.17 3.2 5.03 3.2 5 4.81 5 3.72 0.83%IAEA 0.51 0.92 0.66 0.47 2.42 12.37 63.22 1 0.22%IFAD 1.48 0.52 0.18 2.42 1.15 0.55 2.42 1.15 0.26%ILO 0.24 3.16 1.67 1.15 0.92 0.96 0.8 1.43 0.32%ILRI NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 0.00%IOM 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.12 0.25 0.18 0.12 0.03%ITU NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 0.00%UNAIDS 0.34 0.32 0.36 NA 1.05 0.62 NA 0.41 0.09%UNEP NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0 0.00%UNDP 25.43 19.37 13.35 25.64 23.44 19.17 19.57 21.45 4.81%UNECA 1.16 0.6 0.69 0.12 0.58 0.06 NA 0.63 0.14%UNESCO 0.05 0.13 0.48 0.14 0.087 0.175 0.42 0.18 0.04%UNFPA 7.36 1.87 4.04 2.82 5.21 4.88 NA 4.26 0.96%UNHCR 19.95 20.08 18.66 16.44 15.8 16.08 15.96 18.19 4.08%UNICEF 10.49 12.6 29.12 34.42 37.77 32.31 26 24.88 5.58%UNIDO 0.06 0.13 0.33 0.84 2.13 1.63 1.25 0.7 0.16%WFP 74.04 59.44 129.26 102.16 46.51 164.09 167.3 82.28 18.46%WHO 5.91 7.82 9.29 13.61 5.85 16.58 1.88 8.5 1.91% Sub Total 149.34 130.31 213.27 203.45 148.03 274.53 304.02 168.88 37.88%World Bank and IMF IDA(WB)* 58.38 72.29 148.77 105.2 270.5 531.93 610.05 131.03 29.39%IMF 0 20.8 0 0 51.31 50.63 52.3 14.42 3.24%Sub Total 58.38 93.09 148.77 105.2 321.81 582.56 662.35 145.45 32.63%AfDB 58.83 36.01 30 0.92 178.27 73.68 75.35 60.81 13.64%BADEA 2.42 2.42 2.42 2.42 2.42 1.45 0.33% EU 76.22 110.67 86.45 34.86 27.67 168.21 147.72 67.17 15.07%OPEC 0.17 1.75 2.42 3.35 2.42 1.75 1.27 2.02 0.45%Sub Total 135.22 148.43 121.29 41.55 210.78 246.06 226.76 131.45 29.49%Total Multilateral

342.94 371.83 483.33 350.2 680.62 1,103.15 1193.1 445.79 100.00%

13For the period 2000 to 2003 disbursement figures were estimated or projected for donors who did not make their data available.

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The Ten Largest Bilateral Donors

(Average Share of Official Development Assistance, 1997- 2001)

USA39%

Others 11%

Canada5%

Germany6%

Ireland4%

Italy5%

Japan11%

Sweden4%

Norway5%

Netherlands5%

Kuwait5%

The Ten Largest Multilateral Donors

(Average Share of Official Development Assistance, 1997- 2001)

IDA(WB)29%

IMF3%

UNHCR4%

UNDP5%

UNICEF6%

WFP18%

Other3%UNFPA

1% EU15%

ADB Group14%

WHO2%

Summary of NGO Disbursements of Official Development Assistance14

(1997 – 2001, in Millions of US $)

Year Nationals (29) International (35) Total15 In % of total ODA

1997 7.0 58.9 65.9 10.91998 7.4 62.0 69.4 10.31999 8.5 62.8 71.3 9.82000 15.1 92.5 107.6 12.12001 11.7 72.3 84.0 5.7Average 1997-2001

10.0 69.7 79.7 5.0

14To avoid double counting, NGO disbursements have not been counted separately in ODA as most, if not all, get their resources from either the multilateral or bilateral donors. 15Includes estimate for 2000 and 2001

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Summary of Total Development Assistance by Thematic Area/Sector

(in Millions of US $)

Sector 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries 79.32 59.45 68.93 70.86 54.16 77.4Area Development 50.02 53.21 47.78 36.38 34.12 35.26Communication 16.46 11.55 10.59 0.01 0.53 0.97Development Administration 11.53 16.04 13.56 21.08 15.87 28.83Disaster Preparedness 14.30 12.66 2.62 3.82 8.53 12.37Domestic Trade in Goods and Services 2.35 9.38 8.78 1.20 2.26 0.07Economic management 6.11 70.06 5.67 46.03 147.67 291.67Education 49.33 58.12 43.31 50.18 55.81 75.33Energy 34.04 23.77 39.52 17.42 95.43 56.77Humanitarian Aid and Relief 181.25 152.00 232.32 448.82 293.48 383.33Health 45.32 53.97 52.05 56.5 76.15 110.16Industry 4.35 2.44 3.17 0.37 0.24 3.20Multi Sectoral 18.44 12.78 12.86 18.96 35.73 82.54Natural Resource 25.44 22.05 26.36 13.48 5.44 7.27Social Development 37.7 50.27 61.99 42.00 55.57 72.66Transport 27.24 66.17 99.39 65.68 140.52 151.74Unspecified 2.95 0.50 1.62 26.17 56.25 59.06

Total 606.15 674.4 730.52 918.95 1077.76 1448.63

Priority Sectors

(Percentage Share of Official Development Assistance, 1997-2001)

Agriculture, Forestry and

Fisheries8% Economic

management7%

Area Development

5%

Education6%

health7%

Energy5%

other13%

Transport10%

Social Development

6%

Natural Resource

2% Humanitarian Aid and Relief

31%

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Annex 2 Analysis of the Current Political Situation

1. Political Developments since 2000

Developments in the political sphere in Ethiopia since 2000 reveal a rather pessimistic picture. Expectations of an accelerating democratisation of the country have-not been fulfilled as growing demands for greater participation of the population in decision making as well as demands for the realisation of constitutionally guaranteed rights and freedoms were repeatedly frustrated. Despite serious challenges to the dominant political force of the country, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), from within the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), held a firm grip on power with no serious challenger appearing on the political scene.

Elections 2000

The May 2000 National Elections showed a mixture picture in terms of whether they represented an improvement over earlier elections or not. From the outset, the return to power of the incumbent EPRDF was never seriously in doubt – the number of all opposition candidates combined was not sufficient to oust EPRDF from power, even if they had all won their respective constituencies. However, the widespread participation of opposition parties and independent candidates represented a big step forward in comparison to the 1995 National Elections. On the positive side, the 2000 elections saw much improved electoral administration and a certain levelling of the political playing field through improved media access for non-government candidates as well as through a campaign fund for opposition party candidates. Vigorous debate on issues before the elections as well as a more activist role by the National Election Board (NEB) to correct abuses (especially in the SNNPR where the worst irregularities were found, necessitating re-elections in 14 constituencies) have also to be seen as positive developments. On the negative side, however, there were undoubted instances of intimidation of prospective opposition candidates, of ballot box stuffing and of abuse of office by election officials. Election-related violence resulted in up to 5 fatalities. Most importantly, there were no exemplary measures taken against officials who committed abuses.

The May 2000 National Elections resulted in some increases in opposition representation in the House of People’s Representatives, the Amhara region, the SNNPR, and the Addis Ababa administration. However, a clear evaluation of whether these elections by themselves were a step forward or backward in terms of democratisation is not easy. A report by the Norwegian Institute of Human Rights on the 2000 elections concluded that “what we may have been witnessing was the emergence of a new pattern to preserve full political control at the national level, while allowing a symbolic democratic discourse to go on and providing an opening for opposition parties in certain urban areas and a few rural zones.”16 The next test to come was the 2001 local elections.

Opposition hopes for the 2001 local government elections were high, especially in Addis Ababa where the opposition had managed to win 61,5% of the votes. However, due to the division of the vote amongst a number of opposition candidates, the opposition eventually reclaimed only four of the 23 parliamentary seats in Addis Ababa. Thus, the EPRDF managed to take the other 19 seats with a mere 38,5% of the votes. Therefore, in the preparation for the zonal, woreda and kebele elections in February and March 2001 (Addis Ababa, and four other regions) and December 2001 (SNNPR) respectively, the opposition came up with an agreement not to run against each other – an agreement which held most of the time.

However, the ruling coalition had learned its lessons from the 2000 National Elections as well and made sure it would not lose out to the opposition. While in some places intensified EPRDF campaigning followed legitimate lines, in many places it turned into intimidation of voters and would-be candidates, detention of opposition members, and various fraudulent practices on election day. Nevertheless, opposition parties managed to win a small number of kebeles and woredas in the SNNPR – transfer of power, however, was slow and often wrought with conflict. An evaluation of the 2001 local elections therefore leads to the conclusion that they were a big step backwards with intimidation, abuse and repression growing markedly, once again. The conclusion of the authors of a report on these elections was therefore that “unless serious action is taken, the democratisation process is going to be derailed permanently”17.

16Siegfried Pausewang, Kjetil Tronvoll (eds.), The Ethiopian 2000 Elections: Democracy Advanced or Restricted?, Human Rights Report No. 3/2000, Norwegian Institute of Human Rights, University of Oslo 2000, p.180 17Siegfried Pausewang, Lovise Aalen, Withering Democracy: Local Elections in Ethiopia, February/ March 2001, Working Paper 07/01, Norwegian Institute of Human Rights, University of Oslo, May 2001, p. 40

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The Internal Reverberations of the Ethio-Eritrean War

The Ethio-Eritrean War, which had started in 1998, reached its decisive phase in the spring of 2000 when Ethiopia launched an all-out military offensive, which saw Ethiopia emerging victorious from the two-year border war with its northern neighbour. Ethiopia managed to recapture all territory that Eritrea had temporarily occupied and to delve deep into Eritrean territory. With Ethiopia gaining the upper hand and in the stronger position, an agreement on the cessation of hostilities was signed in Algiers on 18 June 2000. Eventually, this led to the Algiers Agreement of 12 December 2000 laying down the details of a peace process between the two countries under the auspices of the UN and the OAU. Since then, the United Nations Mission in Eritrea and Ethiopia (UNMEE) has been guarding the demilitarised Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) established exclusively on Eritrean territory. An independent Boundary Commission (EEBC) was set up under the Algiers Agreement to deliver a “final and binding” decision on the exact border between the two countries.

From the beginning, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s decision to halt the Ethiopian offensive at a time when Ehtiopia’s troops were making huge gains every day drew heavy criticism in Ethiopia. Already in 1993, when Eritrea gained independence, PM Meles had been accused of selling out the unity of the country. With complete military victory for the Ethiopian army seemingly within grasp, many in Ethiopia now advocated the pursuing of the “hidden war agenda”, namely the regaining of the strategic port of Assab or even the toppling of the regime of President Issayas and the re-annexation of Eritrea. Under strong international pressure to seek a peaceful solution, PM Meles however decided to halt the offensive and content himself with the rules of the Algiers Agreement.

While rather cordial at the beginning, relations between Ethiopia and UNMEE turned sour in spring 2002, among others due to a number of minor incidents and insensitivity on the part of UNMEE. More importantly, the EEBC delivered its ruling on the 13 April 2002 and subsequently denied an Ethiopian request for “revision and correction” of its decision in November 2002. Obviously, the new border is not to the liking of the Ethiopian regime and, if it were to accept the EEBC’S decision, the EPRDF would once again come under strong criticism once the decision is made public. Not surprisingly, therefore, the actual demarcation of the border has been delayed.

Spring 2001 – TPLF-Split and Student Unrest

Differences over the course of action to be followed on Eritrea were at the heart of an internal TPLF argument. This led to a split within the most important party of the leading EPRDF coalition and posed a serious threat to PM Meles’ continued position at the helm of the country. TPLF-dissidents under the leadership of Seye Abraha, the then chairman of EFFORT (holding of party-affiliated enterprises), severely criticised the decision not to pursue the hidden war agenda in Eritrea. Ideological differences over the concept of “revolutionary democracy” further contributed to the rift within the TPLF, which became known on 20 March 2001. A serious internal power struggle ensued which saw PM Meles, Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin and Sebhat Nega emerging victorious. After being removed from their positions in the state and the party, the dissidents were imprisoned and accused of corruption – a pattern well known by now for getting rid of political rivals. To further strengthen its position, the leadership of the EPRDF ordered “gemgemmas” (self-evaluation sessions) to take place in all the parties of the coalition.

2. The State of the Ethiopian Political System

Human Rights Situation

The intensity of the power struggle within the TPLF might also explain the severity and brutality with which the government reacted to student protests that broke out just weeks after the TPLF split. Following a panel discussion on students rights at the Addis Ababa University on 8 April 2001, students presented their demands – among them greater academic freedom and the removal of security forces from the university premises – to the government. An initial clampdown on the protests led to countrywide student strikes and protests leading to huge demonstrations and violent riots in Addis Ababa on 18 April. The government’s reaction was swift and brutal: Special Police forces moved in killing 41 people and wounding hundreds more; thousands of people were initially arrested. Also, the government seemed to make use of the opportunity to clamp down on the opposition as the cases of a number of killed, wounded and arrested opposition politicians seem to indicate.

The brutality and uncompromising attitude of Ethiopian security forces were highlighted, once again, in two serious incidents in 2002, which probably left several hundred people dead. In March 2002, a demonstration in Tepi (Yeki Woreda, Sheka zone, SNNPR) got out of hand, leading to riots and the death of

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a couple of police officers, town administrators and demonstrators. Demonstrators supporting the opposition Sheko-Majenger People’s Democratic Unity Organisation (SMPDUO) wanted to protest against what they claim was rigging of the 2001 local elections. The elections in Yeki woreda had reinstated the local affiliate of the EPRDF while elections in Sheko Woreda (in neighbouring Bench-Maji zone) had brought the SMPDUO to power. Therefore, demonstrators wanted to reclaim what they saw as a stolen election.

The reaction of the authorities was, however, completely disproportionate and cruel: After initially restoring order in the town of Tepi, local police supported by Special Forces and Ground Army forces went on a one-week rampage in the surrounding villages from where the demonstrators had come. This retaliatory campaign left an uncounted number of people dead (probably hundreds) and thousands of huts burnt, and sent thousands of people from the Sheko, Majenger and Manja tribes fleeing to relatives in other zones. Due to the remoteness of the area,the incident only came to be known in Addis Ababa a few weeks later. Representatives of EU countries represented in Addis Ababa then started a fact-finding mission – only upon pressure from the EU was a serious investigation started which until the end of 2002 led to the arrest and replacement of some zonal and woreda administrators as well as members of the security forces. New elections to replace those arrested were also held.

In May 2002, security forces opened fire on an apparently peaceful demonstration outside of Awassa, the capital of the SNNPR. The demonstrators from the Sidama people wanted to protest against rumoured plans that Awassa would be cut out of adjacent Sidamo zone to form a separate administrative entity although having long been the centre of the Sidama people. The demonstration had not been authorised wherefore authorities decided to prevent it by all means from entering Awassa town proper. According to information from eyewitness accounts, police started firing indiscriminately on the demonstrators upon the blow of a whistle. At least 30 people were killed in the incident and scores more wounded. Again, investigations got under way only after strong diplomatic pressure. However, so far results have not been too encouraging with the majority of the persons under investigation coming from the victims’ side. The possible implication of regional authorities may be a reason for the slower pace of investigations in Awassa as compared to Tepi.

The situation of the free press and journalists has to be regarded as a delicate one. Freedom of the press is a relatively new phenomenon in Ethiopia as it was only introduced after 1991. The media in Ethiopia generally suffer from a lack of know-how, well-trained journalists, and printing facilities. Currently, there is only one printing press which is government owned. Although the ownership structure does not seem to have been brought into play in conflicts between the government and newspapers critical of the government, it could represent a potential restraint for the independent press in case relations with the government got worse. The Ethiopian Free Journalists Association has long been trying to play a role as a forum uniting the independent press. It has also come up with its own code of conduct/ code of ethics for journalists and has been engaged in efforts to create an independent press council. Although arrests of journalists for their work have become increasingly rare, there are now fears that the draft new press law – which is currently being discussed – will infringe on the freedom of the press by creating a government controlled press council and introducing stricter slander regulations open to abuse for political purposes.

Relations between the government and the academic community have long been tense, in particular, of course, since the spring 2001 student protests. In the summer of 2002, PM Meles devoted a considerable amount of time to highly publicised and televised discussions with the academic community at the Addis Ababa University to defuse tensions and discuss basic concepts of the Ethiopian political system. As it now becomes clear, relations between the government and academia have not improved. Just before the end of the year 2002, the administration of the Addis Ababa University (the president and the two vice presidents) stepped down and was replaced by TPLF proxies who are not acceptable to the majority of the university teachers and the students. Among other things, they resent the fact that party affiliation weighed more heavily than academic qualification and dedication to teaching – both of which are seriously doubted by the Addis Ababa academic community.

In a related field, the government has decreed new study plans for the country’s primary and secondary schools and has tried to bring the teachers under its control. The old independent Ethiopian Teachers’ Association has for years been harassed, intimidated and prevented from functioning properly, its leader being imprisoned without charges for years. Only upon international pressure was Dr. Taye released in June 2002 while “investigations” are still dragging on. In the meantime, the government has created a “new” Ethiopian Teachers’ Association, which is politically in line with the government.

Religious relations in Ethiopia have always been delicate. Recently, differences within the Ethiopian Orthodox Church as well as between followers of the EOC and some Protestant churches have led to unrest and cases of police brutality. Within the EOC, many clergy as well as laity are opposed to the spiritual head of the church, Abune Paulos, whom they see as a puppet of the ruling TPLF. This confrontation came to the fore again in a struggle over the control of the Lideta Church, one of the wealthiest churches in Addis Ababa. Also, clashes between EOC followers and followers of one of the numerous Protestant churches – whom the

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former accuse of “illegal” active proselytisation – have necessitated the intervention of security forces. Apart from their relevance for inter- and intra-religious relations, these recent incidents once again gave good examples of the inadequate and brutal response of Ethiopian security forces to riots and unrest. In the case of the Lideta Church conflict, Special Police arrested, beat up and maltreated as many as 700 supposedly peaceful demonstrators.

Since the summer of 2002, problems have also arisen in connection with the implementation of the new Master Plan for the urban planning of Addis Ababa. Doubtlessly, Addis Ababa needs a facelift and more coherent and professional urban planning. Not surprisingly, the Master Plan also foresees the clearing of certain slums and “illegally erected” living quarters. The implementation of these measures, however, requires a certain amount of concern on the part of the authorities for the lives of the people affected by these measures. So far, Ethiopian authorities have generally displayed a lack of concern for their citizens – the razing of a whole slum in the middle of the rainy season as well as the demolition of a mosque without prior notice are cases in point.

One of the major organising principles of the Ethiopian state since ascension to power of the TPLF/EPRDF is the concept of “ethnic federalism” and decentralisation under which the country is split up into separate entities roughly according to ethnic lines. While per se the acknowledgment of different ethnicities and the devolution of a certain amount of powers and responsibilities to sub-national entities is a novelty in Ethiopian history that has to be regarded as a positive step, the practical implementation has proven difficult. Most importantly, the geographic ethnic fabric of Ethiopia is so diverse and mixed that clear-cut boundaries are hard to establish – even relatively homogenous regional states like Tigray, Amhara and Afar Regional States retain sizeable minorities. In the SNNPR, with its multitude of “nations, nationalities and peoples” the concept seems to be doomed altogether. What’s more, the concept is not even applied coherently and correctly all over the country and down to the zonal and woreda levels. When one ethnic group is affiliated with the ruling coalition and, thus, attains political dominance over other ethnic groups, conflict is inevitable. This explains how long-standing conflicts between ethnic groups – such as between the Annuak and Nuer in Gambella region – have intensified in recent years. It also shows that in many areas of Ethiopia ethnic federalism might prove impossible to apply.

3. Prospects and Chances

It has now been almost 12 years since the regime of Mengistu was toppled and the TPLF/EPRDF-coalition came to power. However, the democratisation process has not made the progress desired both by the Ethiopian public and by political discourse and theory in the country. There are mixed signals as to whether Ethiopia is developing in the direction of a pluralistic society or reverting to earlier authoritarian experiences.

Recently, there have been increasing indications that – apart from token democratic legitimacy – the government is not ready to share power in Ethiopia and engage in a process of real democratisation that might eventually lead to a peaceful change of government. Instead, power is still concentrated in the inner circles of the EPRDF – meaning the closest allies of PM Meles within the TPLF. At a time when the central government in Addis Ababa is seemingly engaging in stronger decentralisation by devolving power, responsibilities, finances and personnel to the regions and zones and even further down to woreda and kebele levels, it is strengthening its direct control by appointing hand-picked administrators. With problems in its regional sister parties, organised along ethnic lines, on the rise (accusations of corruption, ineptness, misadministration), the TPLF has started to gain direct control by appointing mainly Tigrayan proxies for trouble-shooting.

The generally positive trend in elections from the 1995 Parliamentary Elections that were boycotted by the opposition to a certain levelling of the political playing field in the 2000 National Elections was reversed in the 2001 local elections, which saw a relapse into repressive tactics. This shows that for the time being the government seems unwilling to accept real democratic contest. In a way, the conclusion of a report by the Norwegian Institute of Human Rights on the 2000 elections is still valid: “What we may have been witnessing was the emergence of a new pattern to preserve full political control at the national level while allowing a symbolic democratic discourse to go on and providing an opening for opposition parties in certain urban and a few rural zones.”18 While the 2001 local elections showed that the ruling coalition has become more sensitive even on the local level, this new pattern may be symbolic of the current limits of democratic discourse. Amongst international observers, the 2005 National Elections are widely seen as the last chance to make sufficient progress to placate the growing dissatisfaction in Ethiopia. Should the EPRDF fail

18 Siegfried Pausewang, Kjetil Tronvoll (eds.), The Ethiopian 2000 Elections: Democracy Advanced or Restricted?, Human Rights Report No. 3/2000, Norwegian Institute of Human Rights, University of Oslo 2000, p.180

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to allow such progress, the democratisation process could suffer a final blow with all its consequences for Ethiopia.

Apart from the political field, the TPLF/EPRDF has also been steadily increasing its control over all aspects of the life of its citizens. The government’s interference in the education sector and its attempts at creating a community of school and university teachers absolutely loyal to the regime as well as the draft new press law which might increase the government’s leverage over the press are indications to this end. With no real economic growth in sight, prospects for strong advocates of change from the business community or an increasing industrial workforce remain equally dim. All indications therefore currently point in the direction of a still deficient democratic system.

Given the importance of elections and of gaining access to political representation if not power for so-called ethnic tensions and conflicts in the country, the international community should not be surprised to see more events like the Tepi and Awassa incidents or the current fighting between the Annuak and the Nuer happening. Unless the democratic discourse and practice open up considerably, allegations of election rigging or favouring of certain ethnicities over others will continue to fuel conflicts.

In any case, the various Ethiopian security forces – but in particular the Special Police Forces – currently seem unwilling and unable to handle protests, demonstrations, escalations and riots appropriately. The recurrence of serious human rights violations in the past with maltreatment of citizens and a high number of casualties shows that Ethiopian security forces are not trained and ill-equipped to handle these situations. The action taken by Special Police Forces, whenever called in, follows a similar pattern with a high degree of violence and brutality including indiscriminate beatings, firing live ammunition at demonstrators, mass arrests and maltreatment of prisoners. It is questionable whether the government in the past ordered these excesses to take place and whether it needs this kind of repressive tactics. However, there certainly is a lack of awareness on the part of officials for the need to safeguard citizen’s rights and a degree of carelessness. Most likely, Special Police Forces do not get specific directions how to act when they are called in to “solve a problem” – it will be clear from their training what they are expected to do. Any action designed to improve the human rights record of the Ethiopian security forces will therefore have to aim at improved training and awareness raising among officials.

Generally, other human rights violations of the past years and the general attitude towards people’s participation in decision-making and in achieving the realisation of their constitutionally safeguarded rights clearly show that awareness raising about basic concepts of human rights and democracy is still paramount. Unless the general attitude towards individual rights and the value of a human being among the population at large can be changed, significant progress in the fields of human rights and democratisation will remain difficult to achieve.

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Annex 3 Economic and Social Data of Ethiopia19

19World Bank, Ethiopia Country Assistance Strategy 2003: data variations to Chapter 2 are due to the lack of reliable information or different data assessments

Ethiopia at a glance 3/14/03

Sub-POVERTY and SOCIAL Saharan Low-

Ethiopia Africa income2001Population, mid-year (millions) 65.8 674 2,511GNI per capita (Atlas method, US$) 100 470 430GNI (Atlas method, US$ billions) 6.7 317 1,069

Average annual growth, 1995-01

Population (%) 2.5 2.5 1.9Labor force (%) 2.2 2.6 2.3

Most recent estimate (latest year available, 1995-01)

Poverty (% of population below national poverty line) 44 .. ..Urban population (% of total population) 16 32 31Life expectancy at birth (years) 42 47 59Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births) 98 91 76Child malnutrition (% of children under 5) 47 .. ..Access to an improved water source (% of population) 24 55 76Illiteracy (% of population age 15+) 60 37 37Gross primary enrollment (% of school-age population) 71 78 96 Male 85 85 103 Female 57 72 88

KEY ECONOMIC RATIOS and LONG-TERM TRENDS

Fiscal Year 1981 1991 2000 2001

GDP (US$ billions) 5.2 9.5 6.4 6.2Gross domestic investment/GDP 13.3 9.9 14.0 18.0Exports of goods and services/GDP 10.7 5.7 15.5 15.4Gross domestic savings/GDP 7.3 2.7 -0.1 2.2Gross national savings/GDP 8.1 4.4 10.0 13.7

Current account balance/GDP -4.8 -5.5 -5.3 -5.9Interest payments/GDP 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0Total debt/GDP 35.6 95.9 86.6 101.6Total debt service/exports 10.3 25.2 13.9 10.8Present value of debt/GDP .. .. 51.3 ..Present value of debt/exports .. .. .. 150.0

Fiscal Year 1981-91 1991-01 2000 2001 2001-05(average annual growth)GDP 1.0 4.4 5.4 7.7 2.8GDP per capita -2.1 1.5 2.3 4.6 0.1Exports of goods and services 0.8 11.9 23.6 -1.6 5.0

STRUCTURE of the ECONOMYFiscal Year 1982 1991 2000 2001(% of GDP)Agriculture 53.1 53.3 43.6 45.1Industry 13.0 10.5 10.7 10.5 Manufacturing .. .. .. ..Services 33.9 36.2 45.7 44.4

Private consumption 79.0 81.8 76.8 80.3General government consumption 13.7 15.5 23.2 17.5Imports of goods and services 16.7 12.9 30.8 31.2

Fiscal Year 1981-91 1991-01 2000 2001(average annual growth)Agriculture 0.7 2.4 2.2 11.5Industry -1.0 4.1 1.8 5.0 Manufacturing .. .. .. ..Services 2.5 6.3 9.5 4.7

Private consumption 0.8 2.7 -1.9 11.4General government consumption 3.0 13.0 29.3 -18.5Gross domestic investment 0.2 10.9 -1.2 27.4Imports of goods and services 1.2 7.1 6.3 -1.8

* The diamonds show four key indicators in the country (in bold) compared with its income-group average. If data are missing, the diamond will be incomplete.

-10

0

10

20

30

96 97 98 99 00 01

GDI GDP

Growth of investment and GDP (%)

Ethiopia

Low-income group

Development diamond*

Life expectancy

Access to improved water source

GNIpercapita

Grossprimary

enrollment

-20

0

20

40

96 97 98 99 00 01

Exports Imports

Growth of exports and imports (%)

Ethiopia

Low-income group

Economic ratios*

Trade

Domesticsavings

Investment

Indebtedness

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Key Economic Indicators Actual Estimate Projected

Indicator / Fiscal Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

National accounts (as % of GDP) Gross domestic producta 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Agriculture 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 Industry 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Services 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 Total Consumption 93 92 92 99 100 98 98 96 94Gross domestic fixed investment 17 17 17 16 14 18 20 21 22 Government investment 8 8 7 8 5 9 13 12 11 Private investment 9 9 10 8 9 9 7 9 11 Exports (GNFS)b 13 16 16 14 15 16 16 16 16Imports (GNFS) 23 25 25 29 31 31 34 39 35 Gross domestic savings 7 8 8 1 0 2 2 4 6Gross national savingsc 18 10 12 5 10 14 12 13 16 Memorandum items Gross domestic product (US$ million at current prices) 5993 6383 6535 6434 6363 6233 6059 6363 7005GNP per capita (US$, Atlas method) 110 110 100 100 110 110 100 100 100 Real annual growth rates (%, calculated from 1981 prices)

Gross domestic product at market prices 10.6 4.7 -1.4 6.0 5.4 7.7 1.2 -3.8 8.0

Gross Domestic Income 8.8 4.4 0.9 4.6 3.8 .. .. .. .. Real annual per capita growth rates (%, calculated from 1981 prices)

Gross domestic product at market prices 7.2 1.5 -4.3 2.9 2.3 4.6 -1.5 -6.3 5.2

Total consumption 11.8 3.5 -1.4 14.1 6.4 5.6 1.2 -5.8 5.8 Private consumption .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Balance of Payments (US$ millions) Exports (GNFS)b 784 1011 1037 915 984 957 962 1016 1097 Merchandise FOB 412 599 602 485 486 441 431 456 509 Imports (GNFS)b 1378 1589 1653 1873 1960 1945 2073 2453 2447 Merchandise FOB 1144 1309 1357 1558 1611 1558 1696 2037 2028 Resource balance -594 -578 -616 -958 -976 -1112 -1437 -1350 -1315 Net current transfers (official and private) 707 4971 552 605 708 798 1056 939 979

Current account balance 68 -416 -333 -510 -335 -365 -415 -439 -349

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Actual Estimate Projected

Indicator / Fiscal Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Net private foreign direct investment 0 60 7 136 51 0 40 65 70 Long-term loans (net) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Official 211 104 75 154 122 374 419 469 355 Private .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Other capital (net, incl. errors & omissions) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Change in reserves (negative indicates increase in reserves)d -104 -163 -134 40 225 12 -327 -116 -184 Memorandum items Resource balance (% of GDP) -9.9 -9.1 -9.4 -14.9 -15.3 -15.8 -18.3 -22.6 -19.3Real annual growth rates ( YR81 prices) Merchandise exports (FOB) 14.5 36.1 -9.7 -2.6 23.6 0.1 8.6 7.7 7.2 Primary .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Manufactures .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Merchandise imports (CIF) 3.0 18.4 9.9 18.4 6.3 18.3 -2.8 1.2 3.3 Public finance (as % of GDP at market prices)e Current revenues 18.4 18.2 18.1 17.9 18.3 19.6 20.1 21.4 21.5 Current expenditures 14.7 13.8 15.8 20.9 26.5 20.0 20.4 21.7 21.9 Current account surplus (+) or deficit (-) 3.6 4.4 2.3 -3.0 -8.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 2.4 Capital expenditure 12.2 10.4 9.5 9.9 6.6 9.6 13.7 13.4 13.4 Foreign financing 6.6 5.4 4.6 7.2 5.0 9.0 14.2 18.6 13.7 Monetary indicators M2/GDP 42.1 39.8 41.5 40.7 43.3 47.3 52.0 52.3 52.2 Growth of M2 (%) 10.8 3.4 12.7 5.9 14.0 9.5 12.3 13.0 9.9 Private sector credit growth / 79.4 1097.6 67.8 46.2 15.9 132.8 294.9 67.5 100.0 total credit growth (%) Price indices( YR81 =100) Merchandise export price index 91.1 97.4 108.4 89.7 72.7 64.5 65.8 69.7 73.4 Merchandise import price index 103.5 100.0 94.3 91.5 89.0 86.7 86.4 87.7 88.5 Merchandise terms of trade index 88.1 97.3 115.0 98.0 81.7 58.5 58.8 59.6 60.7 Real exchange rate (US$/LCU)f 38.3 38.7 38.4 38.0 35.6 35.2 .. .. .. Real interest rates Consumer price index (% change) 0.9 -6.4 3.6 3.9 4.2 -7.2 -7.2 9.2 4.5 GDP deflator (% change) 1.2 3.9 9.4 2.7 1.7 -7.0 -7.0 8.3 4.6 a. GDP at factor cost b. “GNFS” denotes “goods and non-factor services” c. Includes net unrequited transfers excluding official capital grants d. Includes use of IMF resources. e. Consolidated central government.

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Annex 4 Bibliography

ADC, Ethiopia Country Program 2001-2003, 2000

ADC, Ethiopia Subprogram Energy 2004-2006, 2003

ADC, Ethiopia Subprogram Food Security 2004-2006, 2003

ADC, Ethiopia Subprogram Gender & Democracy 2004-2006, 2003

ADC, Ethiopia Subprogram Health 2004-2006, 2003

ANRS, Food Security Strategy, November 1996

CSA, Welfare Monitoring Survey, 1998

EPRDF, The Second Five-Year Development Program, 2000

EU, Ethiopia Country Fact File, May 2003

FDRE, Food Security Program, March 1999

FDRE, Food Security Strategy, November 1996

FDRE, Partnership for Accelerated and Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction, December 2002

FDRE, Partnership for Enhanced Aid Delivery, December 2002

MFA, Austrian Development Cooperation Program 2004-2006, 2003

MoFED, Ethiopia: Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Program, July 2002

MoH, Health Sector Development Program II 1995-1997 EFY

OECD, Harmonising Donor Practices for Effective Aid Delivery, A DAC Reference Document, 2003

SIDA, Ethiopia Country Gender Profile, February 2003

SIDA, Ethiopia Structures and Relations of Power, March 2003

SIDA, Ethiopia, Survey of Culture and Media, February 2003

Siegfried Pausewang, Kjetil Tronvoll (eds.), The Ethiopian 2000 Elections: Democracy Advanced or Restricted?, Human Rights Report No. 3/2000, Norwegian Institute of Human Rights, University of Oslo 2000

Siegfried Pausewang, Lovise Aalen, Withering Democracy: Local Elections in Ethiopia, February/ March 2001, Working Paper 07/01, Norwegian Institute of Human Rights, University of Oslo, May 2001

SRHB, HSDP II for the Somali Region, 1995-1997 EFY, 2001

UNDP, Development Cooperation Report Ethiopia, 2002

UNDP, Human Development Report, 2002

World Bank, Ethiopia Country Assistance Strategy 2003, March 2003