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PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF HASS AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN THE AREA OF THE STATE OF MICHOACAN CERTIFIED TO EXPORT TO THE USA 2010-2011
JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR Bachelor of Statistic
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS
BACKGROUND
Undoubtedly the avocado industry is the most important economic activity in the National Agro and no say in the state of Michoacán, as is the Mexican avocado which ranks first worldwide in exports, it is also the organization APEAM the country's number one exporter of fruit. Given the importance that this industry poses to the country and the state is Michoacán’s largest producer by far, it is crucial to a harvest estimate by flowering of this precious fruit; This project already has a history that started from 2006, formally using a scientific methodology, this project each year provided reliable, accurate, timely and that had sufficient coverage in the region of Michoacán avocado. Where one of the immediate benefits of greater importance was: Having the confidence of knowing exactly how much fruit in stock available in the region, in order to contemplate the strategic planning, sales both overseas and domestically. Still another benefit that this project carried out with the seriousness that the organization represents APEAM is the absence of speculation fruit that does not benefit the industry in general.
On this background, and probably for many more reasons that both packers, exporters and producers interested in growing in many ways you can find, there is a proposal to give follow up this project and will continue to make efforts for the benefit of all those who one way or another and that some more and others less dependent on this great industry.
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR 2
JUSTIFICATION
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS
• Implementa)on of scien)ficallybased methods
• Advance planning of marke)ngcosts and revenue
• Strategic Planning and Marke)ng• Efficient Inventory Management• An)cipate poten)al marketofferings
• Avoid fruit specula)on
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR 3
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS
GLOBAL OBJETIVES • Predict ahead and security available volumes avocado
produc)on, corresponding to different stages offlowering
• Iden)fy geographically, regions with higher produc)vityduring the year.
• Design a plan of ac)on to effec)vely es)mate theavocado harvest and mobiliza)on USA cer)ficate inMichoacán
• Iden)fy, quan)fy and analyze the plan)ngs actuallyobtained or will obtain the produc)on of avocado.
• Determine the produc)on performance of each area andtake correc)ve ac)on to increase this
• Get values from trend in produc)on per area cer)fied(Municipality)
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR 4
AREA CERTIFIED FOR EXPORT TO USA BY MUNICIPALITY IN THE STATE OF MICHOACAN
APPLIED IN THIS STUDY AND ITS MAIN PROFILES
MUNICIPALITY SURFACE (ACRES) ACUITZIO 1,717.38 APATZINGAN 1,009.55 ARIO DE ROSALES 18,737.92 COTIJA 1,040.46 LOS REYES 4,250.92 MADERO 466.41 NUEVO PARANGARICUTIRO 10,303.31 PARACUARO 232.97 PERIBAN 9,546.65 SALVADOR ESCALANTE 16,325.46 TACAMBARO 9,342.94 TANCITARO 34,143.26 TANGAMANDAPIO 792.76 TARETAN 1,505.98 TINGAMBATO 2,411.00 TINGUINDIN 3,230.28 TURICATO 2,958.24 URUAPAN 14,173.50 ZIRACUARETIRO 1,425.85 TOTAL 133,614.86
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS
5
ACRES
8,001 8,895
12,565
17,61519,926 19,702
15,629
7,927
669 709 1021 1458 1554 1621 1245 970 416
1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 5000
DISTRIBUTION OF ACRES AND ORCHARDS OF ALTITUDE ABOVE SEA LEVEL
AASL ORCHARDS 0 1600 669
1601 1700 709 8,895 1701 1800 1021 12,565 1801 1900 1458 17,615 1901 2000 1554 19,926 2001 2100 1621 23,356 2101 2200 1245 19,702 2201 2300 970 15,629 2301 5000 416 7,927
25,000 23,356
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS
8,001
6
Orchard Number
DISTRIBUTION OF AREAS AND ORCHARDS BY STRATUM
Stratum (1)Surface by
Stratum Percentage
STRATUM 1 22,262.16 16.7% 5,207 STRATUM 2 47,265.03 35.4% 3,236 STRATUM 3 44,938.19 33.6% 1,051 STRATUM 4 19,149.48 14.3% 169
133,614.86 100.0% 9,663
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS
60,000
47,265.0350,000 44,938.19
40,000 Orchard Number
30,00022,262.16 Surface by 19,149.48 Stratum 20,000
10,000 5,207 3,236 1,051 169-
STRATUM 1 STRATUM 2 STRATUM 3 STRATUM 4
(1)
Stratum 1: orchards with less than or equal to 7.41316 acres. Stratum 2: surface orchards with more than 7.41316 acres to 24.7105 acres. Stratum 3: surface orchards with more than 24.7105 acres to 74.1316 acres. Stratum 4: orchards with more than 74.1316 acres.
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR 7
PROFILES OF THE ORCHARDS: CROP TYPE
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS
>> Crop Type << Percentage
Organic 16%
Conventional 84%
Total 100%
100%84%90%
80%70%60%50%40%30%
16%20%10%0%
Organic ConvenRonal
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR 8
PROFILES OF THE ORCHARDS: HUMIDITY SOURCE
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS
>> Humidity Source << Percentage
Irrigation 47%
Temporal 53%
Total 100%
100%90%80%70%60% 53%
47%50%40%30%20%10%0%
IrrigaRon Temporal
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR 9
PROFILES OF THE ORCHARDS:
PLANTATION SISTEM
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS
>> Plantation Sistem << Percentage
Real Square 71.00%
Triangle 29.00%
Total 100.00%
100.00%90.00%80.00% 71.00%70.00%60.00%50.00%40.00% 29.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%
Real Square Triangle
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR 10
PROFILES OF THE ORCHARDS:
DISASTERS
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS
80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
>> Disasters<<
Frost
Hail
Strong Winds
Others
Without Disasters
Total
27.00% 24.00%
15.00%
Frost Hail StrongWinds
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR
Percentage
27.00%
24.00%
15.00%
2.00%
32.00%
100.00%
32.00%
2.00%
Others Without Disasters
11
ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION
ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION ADVANTAGED AND MARCEÑA FRUIT CERTIFIED AREA TO USA (AREA UPDATE)
694,724,708.24 Lb.
740,121,299.32Lb.
649,328,117.17Lb.
LOWER LIMIT UPPER LIMIT
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR 12
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS
MAXIMUM PRODUCTION
TREND POUNDS
MAXIMUM PRODUCTION
TREND POUNDS/ACRE
PRODUCTION TRENDS BY MUNICIPALITY
TREND MEDIA TREND MEDIA MUNICIPALITY SURFACE PRODUCTION PRODUCTION
POUNDS POUNDS/ACRE
ACUITZIO 1,717.38 9,523,993.95 5,545.65 10,146,336.66 5,908.03
APATZINGAN 1,009.55 2,756,635.07 2,730.57 2,936,766.62 2,908.99
ARIO DE ROSALES 19,306.54 100,259,144.94 5,193.02 106,810,550.63 5,532.35
COTIJA 1,040.46 5,449,662.54 5,237.74 5,805,769.21 5,580.00
LOS REYES 4,239.80 12,608,702.09 2,973.89 13,432,614.19 3,168.22
MADERO 466.41 3,556,547.43 7,625.36 3,788,949.02 8,123.63
NUEVO SN JUAN P. 9,967.87 58,025,656.37 5,821.27 61,817,326.59 6,201.66
PARACUARO 232.97 1,337,082.66 5,739.28 1,424,453.95 6,114.31
PERIBAN 9,566.42 57,179,522.14 5,977.11 60,915,901.97 6,367.68
SALVADOR ESCALANTE 17,391.10 92,028,116.40 5,291.68 98,041,667.83 5,637.46
TACAMBARO 9,342.94 41,267,222.35 4,416.94 43,963,817.41 4,705.57
TANCITARO 34,309.32 163,190,937.68 4,756.46 173,854,603.71 5,067.27
TANGAMANDAPIO 792.76 5,686,017.42 7,172.41 6,057,568.63 7,641.09
TARETAN 1,505.98 8,688,158.22 5,769.10 9,255,883.48 6,146.08
TINGAMBATO 2,415.95 10,778,142.32 4,461.25 11,482,437.00 4,752.77
TINGUINDIN 3,230.28 13,778,142.49 4,265.31 14,678,471.35 4,544.02
TURICATO 2,947.12 17,415,819.54 5,909.43 18,553,851.38 6,295.58
URUAPAN 19,075.17 83,059,845.61 4,354.34 88,487,367.91
13
6,143.10
5,287.76
4,638.88
ZIRACUARETIRO 1,410.85 8,135,359.04 5,766.30 8,666,961.80
139,968.87 694,724,708.24 4,963.42 740,121,299.32
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS
PRODUCTION TRENDS BY MUNICIPALITY
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS
200,000,000.00
180,000,000.00
160,000,000.00
140,000,000.00TREND MEDIA PRODUCTION 120,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
MAXIMUM80,000,000.00 PRODUCTION
TREND 60,000,000.00
40,000,000.00
20,000,000.00
-
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR 14
TRENDS OF PRODUCTION BY STRATUM
TRENDS OF SURFACE BY PRODUCTION STRATUM ACRES (POUNDS)
STRATUM 1 4,315.02 STRATUM 2 5,138.85 STRATUM 3 4,302.27 STRATUM 4 6,982.50
22,262.16 47,265.03 44,938.19 19,149.48 133,614.86
96,061,730.89 242,887,967.84 193,336,355.52 133,711,195.08 665,997,249.33 4,984.45
80006,982.50
7000
6000 5,138.855000 4,315.02 4,302.274000
3000
2000
1000
0STRATUM 1 STRATUM 2 STRATUM 3 STRATUM 4
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR 15
POUNDS PER ACRE
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS
TRENDS OF PRODUCTION BY ALTITUDE ABOVE SEA
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS 10,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000
-
LEVEL AASL
0 1601 1701 1801 1901 2001 2101 2201 2301
AVERAGE PER ACRE
9,279
YIELD IN POUNDS PER
ACRE 1600 6,887.63 1700 9,278.67 1800 6,370.16 1900 4,612.57 2000 4,077.26 2100 4,389.52 2200 3,265.38 2300 4,942.67 5000 5,246.02
4,983.43
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR 16
6,8886,370
4,6134,077 4,390
3,265
4,943 5,246
1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 5000
AREA CERTIFIED
DISTRIBUTION AASL
DISTRIBUTION STRATUM
BACKGROUND
JUSTIFICATION
GLOBAL OBJETIVES
ESTIMATION
GRAPHIC
TRENDS / MUNICIPALITY
TRENDS / STRATUM
PRODUCTION BY AASL
FINAL COMMENT
CROP TYPE
HUMIDITY SOURCE
PLANTATION SISTEM
DISASTERS
FINAL COMMENT IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE FOLLOWING:
HAVING ALREADY COMPLETED THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FIRST STAGE WHERE HAD WORKED WITH 133,614.86 ACRES REGISTERED UNTIL THEN, THE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (SEMARNAP), GAVE THE INFORMED TO APEAM OF THE STOCK OF 6,354.01 ACRES MORE LAST TIME CERTIFIED FOR EXPORT TO USA, SO THAT THE ONLY INFORMATION THAT COULD BE CONVERTED RESULTS IS CONTAINED IN PAGES 17, 18 AND 19 YIELDED THE MOST RELEVANT PROJECT AND ARE BEING ESTIMATED TOTAL PRODUCTION IN THE STATE AND TRENDS OF THEIR PRODUCTION BY MUNICIPALITY.
ALL OTHER INFORMATION KEEPS RESULTS REPRESENT RESPONSES INITIALLY REGISTERED WITH 133,614.86 ACRES AREA AND WITH NO 139,968.87 ACRES.
LIC. JESÚS JASSO AGUILAR 17