Estimating the Position of the European Union: A Tool for Macro-Quantitative Studies

7/24/2019 Estimating the Position of the European Union: A Tool for Macro-Quantitative Studies

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E the P EU:A Tl M-Qv Sd

Dl J d Nl D

N. 65 | O 2015

WORKING PAPER


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2 | KFGWorking Paper No. 65| October 2015

KFG Working Paper Series

Edited by the Kolleg-ForschergruppeT T Pw E

T KFG W P S v d l Kll-F y

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x l d xl d E d E U.

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l [email protected].

Cy : Dl J d Nl D

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J, Dl/D, Nl 2015: E theP E U: A Tl M-Qv

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ISSN 1868-6834 (P)

ISSN 1868-7601 (I)

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Kll-F

T Tv Pw E:

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Estimating thePosition of the European Union | 3

Estimating thePosition of the European Union:

A Tool for Macro-Quantitative Studies

Detlef Jahn and Nils Dpont

Abstract

T dvl dx E U v ly ld d

dll d. T dx dd -v d, w ly ly

dy vl xy EU d l, l d . T dx

E (E Cl, Cl M, C,

d E Pl) d qly d- l w -

. Bd -d dx l ly

w l d l d- l. T dx y EU

dl d l ly q

l w EU d . F, dx llw l-

l l d dll w EU d dvdl

l . Q dll EU l l

lyzd w . T ll dx w d l- d,

w v ly lv -qv d. T d vll qly d

l ldl ly 1966 2012.

T A

Detlef Jahn P Cv Pl D Pll

S, Uvy Gwld, Gy. H ld

ll , wl d vl l wll l

d dll d d l ly. Sld

l ld Gllz Gl Pl: T l

ly d wl dvl, Il

Oz (2006), d T wld vl l, D, A.(d.): M Pl Ely (MIT P 2014). Cly

Evl P d Pl (Cd Uvy P).

C: [email protected]

Nils Dpont w C Cv Pl

Uvy Gwld. H ld y dly d

y , v dly wll v wl

. H P.D. j dl w d y dll

. C: [email protected]


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Contents

L Tl d F 5

1. Id 6

2. A E EU P 8

3. Ply P EU I 11

3.1 The European Council 11 3.2 The Commission 16 3.3 The Council of Ministers 19 3.4 The European Parliament (EP) 23

4. T Llv P E U 25

5. Cl 33

R 36

Adx A: E Cl 42

Adx B: E C 45

Adx C: Cl M 47

Adx D: E Pl 49

Adx E: C P 50

Adx F: Fl P E U 51


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L Tb F

F 1: P E Cl L-RD, 1966-2012 15F 2: P C L-R

D, 1966-2012 18Tl 1: V w Cl M 1958 2012 21F 3: P Cl E d Fl A

L-R D, 1966-2012 23F 4: P E Pl L-R

D, 1978-2012 25F 5: Hyl EU P d d D- Rl 32F 6: L-R P E U d I 1966-2012 33

F A1: Alv Mdll E Cl L-R D 42

Tl A1: Pw Cl Alv Mdl 43Tl A2: Dv S Sl d Idvdl Pw

( v 2012) 44F B1: Alv Mdll E C

L-R D 45

Tl B1: Pw Cl Alv Mdl 46F B2: P C d D W Gv

Pd d C 46Tl C1: Pw Cl Alv Mdl 47F C1: Alv Mdll Cl M

L-R D 48F D1: Alv Mdll E Pl

L-R D 49F E1: C P d D W 50

Tl E1: Pw Cl Alv W 51F F1: Alv Mdll Llv P EU

L-R D 52Tl F1: Pw Cl Alv Mdll

(L-R D) 53F F2: Fl P w Alv W

C d C P 54


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1. I1

T d E U (EU)2 j l w

E d l d lly dd. I d 80 ll ll d y v d y E U (Bzl/R 2000;

Hx 2005: 3). Hwv, l w EU l

(Sl/Kd 2004; Sl/K 2005; Sd l. 2010; T l. 2006; T

2011; Gl 2012). S ld l d dvdl d d v

y v, l E (H 1999; Bl 2004:

113; A/T 2009: 671). T v l

EU () ll y w wll ld l l. I l

d- l v d l, w ll

w , d EU w ll . I -

, l l v EU d l v l

l w . T l vw (Mv 1991, 1998) l v

d dl , wy w l l d y v

w d- ll . D- l w l

l v w, wll d d dv dv, y

(Hx/Hyld 2011: 16; T 2011: 188).

W lv d v l d x ly l d- l,

d. B d- EU vlvd v ,

vd v dy . T EU d- ly

dl wl l v l . T, w , d-

- d llw l d ld . I l

ly dl d l v dl d ll ll .

Hwv, l wll . Id w d

w EU d l, ly d . I

-qv d EU lzd dy vl w 0 EU

d 1 EU . T vy d w d

y d lyz l v l l (A 2007; Sw 2011),l xd (Kl/O 2003), vl l (Kll l. 2010), vz (O

l. 2014), x (Hy 2003). U dy vl EU d

l d llw : Fly, dy vl ly xy

1 Dl J wld l Tj Bzl d T R v P R

Fllw KFG 2012-2017. W vd ll wly d

. W lly d L H, Gy M, H Klv d w

y vw. C J (UNLV) l d v v . W -

l l , w w l . W l wld l

ll Gwld Uvy d lz d- dl. T d

d d-l d dd dwldd : ://vl.-wld.d.

2 W EU x, v w w w lld E Cy.


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lx vl. F vl, d, dy y . Hwv,

vl w d/d v l l d

vldy lz l d. U dy EU

l ly d , w ly dw EU . Sdly, d y dy

EU vd v v (w x -

). Tdly, dy EU ll l v d l-

. T y vy l EU v d

EU dd dvdl v

. T d, w w ll dll w EU d ,

d w l dx dvld (J/D 2015). T dx d

llw ly v w EU d yd.

I d ll EU w d- w d w EU

1966 2012. T y 1966 Lx C,

w w dd y d d j l EU d-

d (H 2005: 68), d- EU y . T l y

w vll d 2012. W ly l- (J 2011) d d M

R Pll R (MARPOR; Vl l. 2013); y d d-

vd MARPOR -l w l (l x jd -

vy) ld dl.3Cly, ll E U vd

- v. - d l- d ( vvw

d vw M/S 2002). F llv wv, w l lv

l- d; d ly d W d d xl l d

ly ly d l (MDld/Bd 2005).

I , w ly d dx d ly w xl w

lylly ly . Cqly, l l ly ld.

T d llw wy: Fly, w y d ld dy-

EU . A x d , w l

lv -d d d d d dl.

T d d w ly d E . A dl w lyz E Cl,

E C, Cl M d E Pl (EP). Sqly, w

-l d- d dy l EU

l- d 1966 2012. Bd lyl dl w

d- EU, w l . Flly, l z

l.4

3 Hwv, d vll lv ll EU . I d dx d.

4 T d d vll dwld : ://vl.-wld.d.


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2. A E EU P

T llw d EU . Bd

w l . T l q w - EU vy wy (B d Mq 1994; K 2007, 2008; M 2002;

S l. 1999; Tl/G 2000, 2001; v d B 1991).5I y, w

v lly l. M l European Union Decides(DEU) d

w d 331 ly 1996 2008 (T l. 2012). A w

d w dl (Sl/Kd 2004; Sl/K 2005)

lyz d 1999-2001 (Gl 2012). T d d x jd ly

v ll . Lw, EU lyzd dvdlly

, l EP (MEly/B 2007, 2010)6, C (T 2008) E

Cl (Tll/J 2008).

O y d d v l d vll

(K 2007; Wj l. 2008; V 2011). Hwv, d

E w d- l . Wj l. (2008)

C, Cl M, d EP d v

v EU . U ld A (2006) w w

wd v w l d l d- -

. Hwv, A l vll,

d.

A (2006) d Sd l. (2010) xly w vl dl d ld

lwy d l dl v l. I ,

l l ly ly l d l . I

w ld l d- l l . T d

v d 1966 2012 d d DEU j, w

v d. I j d y d, w d

d llv EU, d dvld d .

T ld w : T l and - . T lyl l fundamnal quaon of polics,

5 I dd y T l. (2006) vl dl v dd. A (2006) vl

dl y lyz w xl. Mdl w d xlvly l d-

l ld l . T l, wv, dd

(Sl 2014; Lwv/T 2014).

6 F ld EP d v lyzd d ll-ll v ( x-

l A 1990; Hx 2001; Hx l. 2005). B v Wj d ll, w v dd ll ll

ly, v ldd d E , -

d, , E C (Wj l. 2008: 1245). T x l

ly y ld E l (S/W 2012), w V (2011) dl. Hwv, dd x lw, dl w MP E Pl

llw E ly l l .


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w zd y Pl (1991; l H/M 1997: 17; Sl 1989: 137) :

P * IPll O. A d, w l l

l [] d w dd ly l

ll y [] l dll [] d (Tl/R 2011: 2).A q, dl dly-dv d w ly l dl

d lly v . T d EU , w

llv , d w l . I d

, -l d- d w v l d d ld l

EU .

I d EU l- d yly 7 1966

2012, w -d . A -d

dvdl (P M d Pd, C, M, d M E

Pl). T llv d, w dd y l d--

l d l d . Wl l l y lvly ly

dd, y v d qly v EU y. T l ly

ll lx, d j l. T d l

dl, . W l l d, w

l . S l d ly d

l vy d. W ly x jd lv l

w v E (T/Hl 2006). B ld l y

ly lv, w d dld d w d w dl

d lv dx.

Fl dl wll dl lly ly ld EU w

llv EU. T ly w dl x l l-

lv . T E Cl, Hd S, d y d

llv . Y, E Cl EU l

[] dl d jv C d w C l

dl (Hx/Hyld 2011: 32). F, [] E Cl vd d

w Cl ( ) [] (Hx/Hyld 2011: 32). T

E Cl [] ll ll d [] (Hy-Rw/Wll 1997) wy jy dd E Cl l d dl. Hwv,

C d Cl M, E

Cl d. T, w E Cl l d C d

Cl M .

B ly EU, w wll ly w w

EU . W E Cl, C,

Cl M d E Pl (EP) lv ly d? F ll,

7 T lly d qly d ly d yly d

qv --l d.


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d d dll E d . O

wy y d l . Wj l. (2008: 1247) ld

[] d EU v dly l ly -

ll w y l.8

F llv w E l- d. W dy d y MARPOR d

ly y- d -v l- dx dvld y J (2011). O ly ld

y d dvd MARPOR d y , x jd, d

ld d ly . W ddd ll dx

l- d lv xl l d

-v d. Hwv, dl ,

d E , w EU-l.

U l y x E Cl d Cl

M, w d l ll : d

l v. Mwl, l vd E

Pl (MEP) d w w l d l l

l v E y (Hx 2002, 2004). W y , -

l dl wl d d y ld . Al, l -

l l dd l, w MEP w l y d

E ll , y l lwy v w l y (Hx/Hyld 2011: 57). I

EP E d - EP l vd lv y

l MARPOR d (S/W 2012). Y, w d E d

EP : F ll, l EP lly dd d-d l

l (R/S 1980) l d ( Hx l. 2003 -

). F, ql v y ll, vd EP

l , xlvly, ly d v l (S

2005; Hx/M 2007; Hl l. 2009), wy v v ly d y y d-

d l EU l (S 2005). T d l: T

E d l dl l MARPOR d. T wld l

ly EP (d E) v--v E Cl

Cl M (d l MARPOR d). Ad lly, ll (lly

ly y) w d v MARPOR d E w d.

M l l d EP l y

C. Ad Al 213 EU Ty, - . I ,

wv, l wd l y v (T 2008).

T vl , v l

. C ld w l y

v, w d . M 70 C

8 Wj l. (2008) d l ly dy d dy

C, Cl M d EP. Hwv, y l ly d ly . Ty d lyz llv w

w wld dd, xl, EU l .


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w 1967 d 2009 ld v C (Hx 2005: 46). T

d dly v y, 90 1990 (F 2007:

136-137; MMll 1997; W 2007). H (2001) l w C

ly d y ll y, y d w l lz C. F, C, l y lly vd w

C. I wd, C dd , d

lly (dll) l w v l . T, w y dly

dll l w C.

3. Py P EU I

T E U lx d- vlv v . T dy-

-dy ll dd y - d -d- E

C, Cl M d E Pl. Hw xly E ll -

w ly dd d d ll (B d Mq/S 1994; K

2004; Hl l. 2005; Sl/S 2004; T/Hl 2006; T l. 2006; T

2008). A d l d- l v

dd d d l ly d ly . T l d d w

ll l d l l ly EU. I ,

w ld d dl EUl -v ly. W

l dl d d-. Hwv, d v, w d

E Cl (d v) l C d Cl M.

W ly w E Cl.

3.1 The European Council

T E Cl d d v d d

E C, d w y. T y d d F d Cy E Cl. T d-

- l y d vy l v d. T d d -

d d lw d l. I wv, E Cl

ly d d E . T,

E Cl l vv ly l w v d lly yd

lvl lw d .

T dy E Cl vy x d y w dy

dl d . S 1 Jy, 2010 Pd

E U l d , w v l

v. F d, v llw


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w Pd E U, d y. Hwv, vy ll

w d E Cl, d d-

v v l d --d vvw E Cl (Bl/Wl 1987; J

1994; Wl l. 2004; Hy-Rw/Wll 1997). I lyl dy, Tll (2008) ddd q w E Cl. I qlv dy d

x vw w d d , wll E l,

ld v v d w d v

qlly v ll . T d d wd

lw d dd w dvdl .

M d dlly l w, , z y

(l) d w, ll . Tll (2008: 690) ld ly Ily

l l lv w l d E

d ll ly. Wl l w y dd

y, l, , ly ly, ll dvl, l-

l ly, dv y d y, w d

d dvy. W l (SPw1) d

(SPw2) d l w.

(1)

(2)

Explanaons: SPw Sl Pw. T l d GDP d

l EU l d GDP y. PMid ly

y i.

Tll (2008) ld l d dvdl d w dy -

. Il w d d- l. Tw lly l-

v x w: v d dy. E ECl v d, w v d ly. Sd

l v v w l l

w d w q (H 1988; H 1995: 32; S 1997). Hwv,

v E Cl w d. I ly d

l w . A d: Lx v

dd d B w (d Tll 2008: 691). T v l

w d l . T wld l v

E Cl d y . F,

v v d ll ld wy. T

v l wll w . P ly, v

l dv E Cl d l dl.


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Id v, w, w w E dy,

v. Gd y ly w y. A

Tll (2008: 697) : I l v ll d d-zd d

Pdy w []. T w dy dvd l w dy d d y d

dd w wll dd w d, w zd d w ld.

Pw y lly y d w y

y ld l d :

The Presidency either travels to or receives all other heads of government in the weeks preceding the

summi. T forma of bilaral ncounr nabls ads of govrnmn o sar informaon abou

ir boom lins wi Prsidncy, us improving cancs of summi agrmns on conn-

ous issus (Tallbrg 2008: 698).

W lz l w E Cl

Pdy d. T Pd E Cl w

d . F , wd w Pd

E Cl d d . T -

l w Pdy (IPw).

(3)

Explanaons: IPw d Il Pw; PMi ly

y i; v d .

Flly, Tll d dvdl w E Cl. T

y d . T l E Cl,

/ w l l, d . T

w . A d v Tll dy (2008: 700) : J

ly w w 12 14 ll . 9Ex l

. Ex , d wld

E Cl. M dl qv ly w x y. Sy y l ly ld w x d l v

l ld d . T d dvdl w (IdPw)

q y vd E Cl.10

(4)

9 B l Pd C J-Cld J w Lx w d l ll .

10 B d zd l q, w ly -d .


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Ev ll E Cl y, y l

ly d vll.11Flly, E Cl

(ECPO) dd llw:

(5)

T E Cl l w llv EU. Oly D 2009 dd

E Cl l E . Hwv, E Cl d

l ll d d E U, wll vd U w -

y dvl (E U 2015), yl l- l -

w E Cl l d, d C d Cl M

(Hx/Hyld 2011: 23-34).12A yl l- ly, ly

dl y d d w l d l. A

A (2006) x w ll ,

d- dl w w

wd y w. W ly wd C

d Cl M, d, w E Cl, . F

, wv, w d d l d- l C d Cl

M. B w l d Cl.

11 O y z dl d d l l v d (l ll),

-l v w, -v dv (d-) dv l

(Sll j). Al w d dw l dl, w ll ly -v

v w d -lvl. T wl-

d l, ldl d vll y w . A

A (2006) , dld , wd

. I dl d ld w d l d dvdl

d w w ll l. I l, l ld -

ldd dl y -v v ly dx (J 2010). T wld q

ld ly, T (2001) d Sll j d ld vy -

vly dd (d l wld ) d

. S ly yd , d w lv

.

12 O dl l- l EU dly. Hx d Hyld (2011: 25-27)

l v l d C . F (2007) d Cd l d EU ll l. All dl v v

. Hwv, l v l vd

ll EU. I wld ly 27 l w dvdl (llv) .

T v v y d

l w E Cl. T l. I dl

y l llv , d l v.

T, d d v E Cl

l. Wl lz Cl M dd,

l v, w d y ld vw

Cl M : Fly, y v. I

l, dl (Lv/Sl 1996) w v jd l

v, y dv v . Sdly, w d

l v l d , E Cl y dv dly

Cl.


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I d ld w E Cl, w

d w ld dy, l E Cl d

l lld v d w x (F 1).13

Figur 1:P E Cl L-R D, 1966-2012

-20

-10

0

10

20

Right

Left

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Position of European Council Position of presidency

Maximum position Minimum position

Source: A.

I 45 y vd y d, w d wd l l 1970. T

v L d d d Edd L 1973, w w Bl P

M d Sl Py, wll Wlly Bd (Sl D Py Gy) 1974. I d l 1976, J d Uyl D L Py (PvdA) d

l-l dy d. T v w ld y l d wd -w -

l 1970. I d l 1980, dy Ud Kd, l

Bl d D, ld E Cl . I d l 1986, d

dy M T E Cl -w y.

Hwv, M. T w dd 2002 y Ad F R, D d

ld vv-ll y V (V). A -w d-1980, l

-v l l d d G, S d F ll w d

13 Adx A v dll y lv dll d dv

l d dvdl w d.


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Sl D . Y, -w lly dd 1990 d

v L w ly l wd d dd d A P M V

Kl (SP) d G ll Gd Sd (SPD). I w ll, -w

d d, v w l dd w y ld dy.I , l d wd d d y R.

3.2 The Commission

T E C l d- E l, d ly -

ll d E C J.

T C zd l d v w xv ,

Cll C. T Pd C ql. Hwv, /

vll ly d C y l w , l

d d Cll, d / S

Gl, w v w D Gl. W v , d q

l jy, w C Pd dd v v .

T C l l l l v.

T C lwy d l l, C d, ll d -

vv (MMll 1997). Hwv, ll d ll l d

d - Cll (Hx 2005: 44). I d

C, w dl d- w Pd d dll

C ld l .14T dl

d Pd C (PC) d C w -

l (CPl). B v wd ly

. Wl Pd l d, C

v x v l (R 1995: 162, 197; S 1996: 244-246) d -

lly l d w w.

T d w Pd d C w l ( w ) d l w l w

C. T wd C l

Pd d C (Cl1

), d

l (Cl2

) d , l l jy vd. T v

C dd jy C.

14 W l d l Cl E M d

lly d y l- d. F ly l d Cl

M y lv. S J (2016) ly vl l d v-l l d Cl Evl M. I d dy J l ld vl ly

d dd l- l.


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(6)

Explanaons: CP = C; PC = ly Pd C; C

l= ly C w v l.

B C E Cl l C

:

(7)

F 2 w C l- ly d.15Wl C

d, lly ld . Ud dy G Wl

Hll (CDU), C q d d L

l 1960 d Bl Ll J Ry d Il C D F Ml. S Ld

Ml D PvDA (1972) d Ry J B L Py (1977-1981) d

l d. Ty w d y F Gll F-Xv Ol (1973-1976),

l l (1977-1981) w d J. Hwv, -

J Ml dy w l d

l 1970.

15 A w E Cl, w d vl lv l d . T

dl dd Adx B.


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Figure 2: P C L-R D, 1966-2012

-20

-10

0

10

20

Right

Left

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Position of European Commission Position of commissioner (economic affairs)

Position of presidency


Source: A.

T ll l w d vl . M

y w d w l , dl . T

() wd .

1977-1981 wd Bl Dv (-ld), F F-Xv Ol (Gll)

d Lx Ryd Vl (LSAP) L-l d Ry J (L).

W dy G T, R d d w lly vd d dy v M F, F Sl Jq Dl. T w G

Al P (SPD), d dl w vv I P Sld (FG), S

Al M (PP) d B F A Cld (Cvv) (1985-1989). C

dd dlly l Dl w l d w D H

C (V) d G M B (FDP), w ll d (1989-1993).

Wl l R l 2000 d R Pd d J Ml

B, ll dvd R-w L-w . N ly, dl-

w ll vv , wl l d

d dd .


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3.3 The Council of Ministers

T Cl M d v d

xv d llv w. T Cl dy w ll y EU. S 1970, dy Cl vy x

d y. Olly, dy xd l.

Adly, l z dy l l d

l. Al wldd ld dy d

d, y d v dv (B 1988; S 2000; Wl

1995; Hy-Rw/Wll 1997; Alxdv/T 2013). Hwv, l d

vw. S l dy v v x

[] govrnmn a olds prsidncy as considrabl conrol of lgislav agnda insid

the Council. Each government takes over the presidency with a central part of the presidencys work

program and will b on agnda of all ky Council mngs. Howvr, prsidncy can only ac

on s issus if lgislaon is proposd by Commission. Convrsly, if prsidncy dos no lik a

Commission proposal, i can simply rfus o pu i on Council agnda. (Hix 2005: 80-81)

T l d y l d w w ld dy d -

ly d vly w v (Tll 2006;

S 2000; Tll 2010). Idd y z d w w l

v w d d v v ddl lv EU d-

d w (Sl l. 2007: 245). Wj (2008: 334)

[] ly l xd w ld dy

l l v C. L w E Cl, ll

vd ld dvl dl wy w dy

Cl M.

T Cl lly dd y d y v l v

. T w v l Cl:

Uy, w v d ll d - v . A l Lx w (l) l Cl

l Sl E A (SEA) (Tdl 1993).

Qld-jy v (QMV), w v wd d z -

l, d v-zd jy qd ll d. T l

.

T v d y l lzd d w w x -

, . Ay dv wld ld

ddvd l d. W ll dl

l d, y d. Flly, :


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(8)

Explanaons: CPUy= P Cl M d y; CM= ly l l EU ; C

Mx= ly - l

EU

T Sl E A 1 Jly 1987 w v d QMV l.

Sqly, w dl d- Cl E d Fl A d QMV.

W Cl w ld dy. T Cl

l l Cl, d l . w l qld

jy d. T l Cl Cl w

dd qld jy.

(9)

Explanaons: CPQMV

= P Cl M d QMV; CP = ly

Pdy Cl M; C = ly l EU .

T dl ld l 2010. I d v y, L Ty ld

v d, w presidency trios. T w -

dy x l ll d . T ,

Cl 2010 d w . B l l w

w l w, llw w . T

dy wy dy w , wl d d -

v d v w . F , dy l l

Cl, d l . l qld jy d:

(10)

(11)

Explanaon: CP = P Cl M; CRP = P Pdy

Cl M; CP = C Pdy; SP1d SP

2= Sv Pd;

C = Pl EU .

Tl 1 w v w y Cl M 1958

2012. I l w qd q qld jy d ld l y.


21/56


Table 1: V w Cl M 1958 2012

01.01.

1958

01.01.

1973

01.01.

1981

01.01.

1986

01.01.

1995

01.05.

2004*

01.11.

2004*

01.01

2007*Bl 2 5 5 5 5 5 12 12

F 4 10 10 10 10 10 29 29

Gy 4 10 10 10 10 10 29 29

Ily 4 10 10 10 10 10 29 29

Lx 1 2 2 2 2 2 4 4

Nld 2 5 5 5 5 5 13 13

G B 10 10 10 10 10 29 29

Ild 3 3 3 3 3 7 7

D 3 3 3 3 3 7 7

G 5 5 5 5 12 12

Pl 5 5 5 12 12

S 8 8 8 27 27

A 4 4 10 10

Fld 3 3 7 7

Swd 4 4 10 10

Cy 2 4 4

Cz Rl 5 12 12

E 3 4 4

Hy 5 12 12

Lv 3 4 4

L 3 7 7

Ml 2 3 3

Pld 3 27 27

Slv 3 7 7

Slv 3 4 4

Bl 10

R 14

Tl 17 58 63 76 87 124 321 345Qld jy 12 41 45 54 62 88 232 255

( % v) 70.5 70.6 71.4 71.0 70.9 72.2 73.9

Bl y 6 18 19 23 26 37 90 91

( % v) 33.3 31.0 30.1 30.2 29.8 29.8 28.0 26.4

Explanaons: * Ud Ty N l jy qd: (1) qld jy, (2) jy

, d (3) 62 l . Addlly, l y

d .

Source: A.


22/56


T y dd y v d- l,16 , Cl

M (-

dl), d v w ( dl),17

wd v l (llv v dl). A w C, Cl M l E Cl. Sl C, w

wd w E Cl d Cl M:

(12)

F 3 w l l l- d.18R d d

d vd E Cl. T ly d-1970 w l v l d

ld vl v ( xl Gy, Bl, D, d Nld),

l d l (Ild, Ily). Hwv, y l 1970, l

x l. I d l 1983, d G dy Ad d Lz

(PASOK) dd y F v, l l d d

L l d d ly. 1986 1988 wd

vv v w: UK d M. T, Bl -y l d

C d ld, d D d G vv-ll l, v

Cl M R-w ld .

T v l 1990: T UK d Ty Bl, l d A l d

Gy d- l d Cll Gd Sd dd Cl .

Hwv, D dy 2002 d wd . I ,

Cl M ld R-w . A E

Cl, dy ld . T d d QMV,

wv, lly d .

16 Rly d (OMlly 2007; S l. 2003) d l y(Bl S 2009) l l ly Wd d dd d

dy d- l v ( dld d d ly J 2016). T l

ly ll ll W d wll S, D, Pl d F l;

w PM. T d l d A, Fld, Nwy, Nld,

Swd d Bl, ll w w d llv d-. T

l l ld Gy, Ily d G, w v l y v l.

I ll d w v v d

wd (llv d-). F Cy d, w

l xlv w (K-Ldy 2009).

17 A w l ( wd y ) dvd-

lly; l l ll .

18 F Cl E d Fl A, w M F M EA. I x v y, w Idy/Td, lly v-

. S Adx C lv dl.


23/56


Figure 3: P Cl E d Fl A L-R D, 1966-2012

-20

-10

0

10

20

Right

Left

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Position of Economic and Financial Affairs Council Position of presidency


Source: A.

I , d l lly E Cl. Mwl, -l

dy v ld q d dl .

3.4 The European Parliament (EP)

T EP ll y EU l US C y d

l E. T EP qd v EU-v

w jy EP. T EP lvly dd. L US

C, EP dd ll. Hwv, l EP w

US C, l llv d v ( lw).

S 1979, E Pl (MEP) ld EU-wd l vy v y.

T MEP y , j w l . T w MEP

dl d US C d l y EP d

lyl MEP d v y d , y

EP dl. Al l v v v v , d


24/56


MEP d w w l lly d l

, w d d d (Bwl/Fll 1993; N/Fl 1997; Hx 2002; F

2003).19O j l y ld l -l

MEP, y EP. A dy ly l d y EP, w ly d l-

l l d v y EU. T dy ld

[] y d ly EP x l l y (MEly/

B 2010: 396).

T EP v d l jy l. T dl dll

EP (EPP) l:

(13)

Explanaons: EPP = P E Pl; MEP = ly M E

Pl.

T dll EP d MEP w dll d. T

EP d ly v MEP lly MEP

. T, w l (d) v d ().20

I l- d, E Pl lly dv -w

(F 4). Ty w lly d ly 1980 d d-1990. Oly

2004 dd -w d. T w d lly

l w 1987 d 1992.

19 O F (2003: 859) : lzd dd l , lly d

MEP d; l v y , lly d MEP d;

l y MEP, lly d MEP d; -

y-d ll y , lly d MEP d; d y lv, d MEP lly d.

20 Nvl, Adx D dll d.


25/56


Figure 4: P E Pl L-R D, 1978-2012

-20

-10

0

10

20

Right

Left

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Position of European Parliament


Source: A.

A v dd E Cl, C, Cl M d

E Pl, w w q d EU.

4. T L P E U

T llv lly d y C, Cl M d E

Pl. B E Cl vlvd llv , w

Cl M Cl. Hwv, llv EU dl dl

-v ly. I w d l E -

. Ev w wld l ll v d v d

d- ly lzd d l. I dd, d l ly

v d ly ld. W lly dl y

ly w d w v dd y Cl d d l

v l (V 1997; H 2007). T y lld ly d

w ld y Cl d Jly 1987, Sl E A d


26/56


.21By 2000 w ldy 200 . T v d (dvy,

, ly, d, Cl l) d w w d w

d v C.

Cly zd q, lly d v

d. Hx d Hyld (2011: 37) z ly:

Undr som procdurs of comiology sysm r is a sparaon of powrs, wrby lgisla-

ors ( govrnmns) can scruniz xcuv ( Commission). Undr or procdurs, owvr,

comiology as crad a fusion of powrs, wrby mmbr govrnmns can in som rspcs

nforc ir wiss on Commission, and so xrcis bo lgislav and xcuv auoriy.

T d C w d Cl v C -

C d l. T l w d C -

l w [] C ly d xly w wll

d l , d d dly (Hx 2005: 57). T

y v l j- ll ld w l

d y C dd y Cl lly llv l-

(K 2007: 427).22Wl EP ly vlv l lly 1999, w

d w dd d 2006, w w ly d w y

v EP v d v--v C d Cl ll ld. I

dd, l w , wl EP dd , (ll) d

w l l (C/Dl 2012).23

I lx llv d- EU ld dl d-

l w . T l v dy w W

w EU? (T/Hl 2006; B/Pll 2009). W dl EU d

lyz llv , w v ld ly l dl (Tl/G 2000; T/

Hl 2006; Hx/Hyld 2011). Hwv, dl dly l l ly

vl : Fly, y d E d

( C d EP Cl) w d

y (H 2001; Wj l. 2008; Hx/Hyld 2011). Sdly, dl ly d-d q (G 1995: 296). T q lly d

21 I w d J 1999, ly Ad Ty d .

22 K (2007) ld d 1984-1999 76 l dd y Cl.

Hwv, l v d ly, l w d l d

dd. Hx (2005: 56) 4,357 d C 2000, ly

vl w xd y l x d ly x l w d

Cl.

23 D (2007: 210) v llv l EP. O

Tl (1994) ld wdly d l w dld w EP

y v dl d- w. T d l EU ly.F, d d w EP v dl d- w d ld

j dy.


27/56


-, w y l v d lly. I

ly ld d E , l q .

T, w d dl d- w dd d q. Tdly,

dl d- EU ly d l d l .T ly d y dl.24Ty y v l

C d l l d-.

I d lyz EU 1966 2012, w llw Sl

E A (SEA; d 1 Jly 1987), Ty E U (M Ty;

1 Nv 1993), Ty Ad (1 My 1999), d Ty L (1 D 2009)

.

(a) T Lgislav Procss undr Luxmbourg Compromis: B SEA 1987, llv d-

- EU d d Lx C, w d dd

1966 d lv ddl w F d . I w l

, w d w j qld jy v, wld

d y l l w d . B

d d l , d y w

dd .

T llv d w C l l d d

dd d l w v d dd. Awd Cl w -

ld d EP v . T, Cl d ldy d l

w l ll d y dd. T EP d l w l -

d. Ll w ly EP l d EP ld v y v.

Evlly, Cl wld dd y y QMV j l. Ad

d d y y. S Cl w vlvd d C l d

l ddd , y Cl ld EU (EUPO)

l 30 J 1987. 25

(14)

24 I vl v d- dl, A (2006; 2006) dl ly ly

l l w dl w l d : T l

dl dl d l x. Ty d j l l, l

l w l d (A 2006: 298). T ll ,

wv, w l l dl d w w w l

l. W ld l w ly d w l

ld dy ( v).

25 T l d y l l dl d x jd. C ,

Tl d G (2000: 12-13) : Ev d- w d w v-

d l d q. W l w d w

C, Cl d EP, T d Hl (2006: 412) ld: F j l w EP d v Cl M, - w ll

w Cl d C d EP.


28/56


(b) T Lgislav Procss undr Singl Europan Ac (SEA): T llv d d SEA

w 1987 d 1993 w lld d. T SEA C w d

. T d- d llw: T C d l;

E Pl d d; EP , Cldd l w qld jy w C P; Cl wd

d l, dd v, w j

l d ; C P w d d EP; EP -

vd C P d d w , Cl ld d

llv ; EP ld j l y l jy w Cl ld

vl ly y d w .

I d dl v d, llv d l-

ld : () C P, () d d

EP, () vd C P y C, d lly (d)

d l vd C P d Cl.

T C v d- d l-

w Cl. El d (T/Hl 2006: 409) w Cl w

d C. I wd, l ldy -

Cl l d. A q, dl l

C d C P dl lyl .26

(15)

T C P EP d d, w dd w l jy,

d l dv. Nlly l d dd. I

y dd (4,500 1987 1993 (Tl/G 2000: 19)), w ly :

(16)

T C j d EP d

ll d . W , EP C P l C, d. I , j

d EP d l C P. T dd C

P 2 C l d. Flly, w z l-

lv llw:

(17)

26 S Adx E lv w C P.


29/56


T d C dd y Cl QMV ( y).

Hwv, Cl ly d y y. T dd C P ld

wy Cl wll ll . I wd, Cl l,

w d y C. W dl dj y w ddC P w d Cl:

(18)

Ud d, w C d ld

l d w: y l l l ( w

Cl ly ) d d , d

EP. T EP l vd dl d w dd w ld d

(Tl 1994; Tl l. 2001). I C d EP wd ( C -

d EP), y w llv EU, v

lly w ll ly d Cl.

(c) T Lgislav Procss undr Co-Dcision I Procdur: F 1 Nv 1993 l 30 Al 1999,

llv d w ly ddd -d d. T -d dl dd

y M Ty lld -d I d; w l vd y Ad

Ty (w -d II). T w EP d- -

llw Cl d EP -dd v l C (J

2011). T w w j l d w d d -d-

I. Fly, Cl ld j EP d d y C. Id,

Cl C ll Cl d lly ql

EP d d d d j x. Sdly, Cl C

ld j x, Cl ld C P. T Cl l

lw l l jy MEP vd .

T -d I l d d. A

, Cl . T v Cl dl w

w v l w . I v ll d

EP, j d dd C P. T [] Cl d d d -d I ld lly Pl y

v wd (Tl/G 2000: 23). T, dl

-d I d llw:

(19)

T C P lly d -d I l

Cl, v C ll l.27T EP ll

27 Hwv, ll, l C Pl C d Cl w Cl

d 100:33 l ly.


30/56


-d I d. I Ty M [] dd Pl

-ql ll [], d [] ld v jv (Tl/G 2000: 23).

(d) T Lgislav Procss undr Co-Dcision II Procdur: F 1 Al 1999 l ly 2003, -d I d w dd v EP, Ty Ad O 1997.

T -d II d dd d l w -d I w

dd ( Cl l l Pl, d Pl d w j ). I

wd, Cl C l -d II. T d q

llv EU. B Cl d ql

MEP w Cl C, EU d -d II d ly

w w . W , ld lwy w

Cl v d EP d: [] Cl d EP wll ly l

d w Cl d EP dl [] (Hx 2005: 105). T

l d dl :

(20)

S dl d C . Ev C -

l l (lly 100 , lly ly, d d),

w Cl d EP, j C P, xld C. I

l dl d x jd w C, Cl d EP,

l w d -d II 15 C, 100 Cl d 25

EP (T/Hl 2006: 413). T dl l w C,

w xldd dl lyz l llv .

() T Lgislav Procss ar Nic Tray: T Ty N d 1 Fy 2003.

I l d lv w Cl d EP. Hwv, N Ty

d llv d, d dl d ll

Cl d d w v. T dd ly EP d-

l Cl l y w Cl.

I , w w Tl d G (2001: 372-376) C l w d w ld -d I -d II. Hwv, wl dl

C d w 1987, Tl d G (2001: 374) ld

C d [] dl v llv []. T d

w d v Cl w y 1987 w

Tl d G lyz xlvly QMV.28 W d d C

28 A Cy d Hx (2011) : [] C dd ly l vv -

d q, d d ly d l. T

C d ld d- w SEA. Ad T d Hl (2006: 410),

Cl v d d. A d v, d v Clld ll w wl C d EP ld . Hwv, d qld jy v w -

l d - w 30 C 15 EP d 100 Cl.


31/56


w w EP. Hwv, C l l

ly d d d y EP. T v l l

C, vd wd Cl. T

C d -d I, lly w Cl. Hwv, l w -d II d, x w -

l l l w Cl ly .

T EP llv v C. T EP d

d l d. I d d d

w d w d y C. Ud -d I, l ll

l C P w C d Cl. T EP

d -d II. H Cl.

T Cl w l d v v llv l. I w -

d l w y l. I w ly w d d

w C d EP d dl d- w (Tl 1994). I w

d -d I d. H C P lly d, d

, Cl d 70 . T Cl l -d II

d w w w EP (50 ).

S yl ll dl. I 1 l

Cl v x d (3 l 0 10), d C (10) d EP (9)

lly d. T ylly d E . T -

l l EU : 3.0 d l, 4.94 d , 4.75 d -d

I d 6.0 d -d II. T l w d y d.

I 2, Cl (1) w w EP (2) C (10). T l

1.0 d l, 2.13 d , 3.25 d -d I d 1.5 d -d II.

I w v d Cl (1) d C (2) d EP

(10), l 1.0 d l, 1.13 d , 1.25 d -d I d

5.5 d -d II. Flly, w v Cl ddl (5) d l EP d (1)

d C (9) ( 4), w lv EP d Cv . I l : 5.0 d l, 5.5 d , 6.0 d -d-

I d 3.0 d -d II.

Ud l, Cl lly d . Ud , C

l v l lly dl , v Cl d EP l

, d lly EP d C d ( 4).

T d -d I. T w EP d C l -

vly. T EP w d -d I, w d y l. T

d dlly d -d II, w C l w EP. T Cl

l w d- d xl. Hwv, l -d I

Cl d w w w C w EP. I , d


32/56


-d II Cl dvd w EP. Uly, l-

EP d C y Cl. F 5 vlz

d d- l EU.

Figur 5: Hyl EU P d d D- Rl

Co-Decision II (1999-)

Co-Decision I (1993-1999)

Co-Operation (1987-1993)

Consultation (-1987)

Institutions

0 2 4 6 8 10

Scenario 1

0 2 4 6 8 10

Scenario 2

0 2 4 6 8 10

Scenario 3

Co-Decision II (1999-)

Co-Decision I (1993-1999)

Co-Operation (1987-1993)

Consultation (-1987)

Institutions

0 2 4 6 8 10

Scenario 4

Position of EU

Council Commission Parliament

Source: A.

W w E Cl, C, Cl E d Fl

A d E Pl d ly llv d ld v,

ld EU l- d w y ld l F 6.29

29 Adx F dll d l EU y lv

.


33/56


Figur 6: L-R P E U d I 1966-2012

-5

0

5

Right

Left

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Position of European Union Position of European Council

Position of Commission Position of Council of Economic and Financial Affairs

Position of Parliament

Source: A.

I l- d, EU vd L 1970 1980

l d d ly. All llwd d d l l ld

wd l d-1970. F l 1970 d-1980, ll E

C ld ly . Al EP w l-l

d-1980 d-1990, v l E . F d-

1980 l d 1990, E Cl d Cl ld ll E . I d ddl ,

v E Cl -l Cl M.

5. C

T dy lyl dx EU lv ly d d

l -v d, w w EU d

l d . T dx ld l lyz v w

EU.


34/56


T j ll d dx. A ll

w vd l d EU l- d 1966 2012. T dx d

d d d y -v ly.

M-v ly lly wll qd lyz l EU

. M l dy vl d EU . T d

dy vl EU- l d v wy w EU

. F, dy vl x d- ql-

v lx vl, w dl . O v w dy

vl l v , w v d w EU . I

d -v vl. E EU d

- d -l d- d dlv vl.

By a singleEU y j EU y . A ly w,

ly . My w v vlvd E l,

w y d- l d llw dly l. V

vlvd E d- v ld d- l d ld -

v y l v. Hwv, d dy EU x

v ly ld. E lv ,

d dl, w l l ly l l, lv

lx v dl . W l

d l w EU. Hwv, d wll v w

w y EU dl v -

(w lly d w EU-dy vl) .

T dx dvld d dd q, w v

ly ddd. F , EU l v

EU ld l d y- dx dll . O ld

l l z EU ly ly

wd w , w ll. S ly wld d -

lylly ly dy vl, w d

EU .

T ly dll w EU d l v -EU lv-

. I , w d ll EU d l

( F d Gy), EU lly w

ll ? F, ly ld l vl lv w N d

S ld d w . Alyz dll wld l dy d-

ly l w EU d y l d w

d EU.

A wy d wld v EU. S ly ld

dd lvl d l, d, w EU, . I


35/56


dd EU ddl v ly. T , ly vd

l ly v . I d ( xl Sd 1996; Cl 1996) l

v d ( xl d , dl, l y, d,

dly d ) d EU dd l.30

By dx EU lyzd v ly d l ly v ly

v G Tl (J 2010). I l ll dll

w dvdl EU d, d , lld ly EU

(K/P 2001). S ly wld l y EU

d dy ly .

Aly dll ldy dwy (J/D 2015). A l-

ly d, w lly d dll W d, d

l ld dll d wll ( l v-

l l xl J 2016). Hwv, dl wld v djd.

Alyz ly d wld ly q d ( v-

l d E ) l dj l w

( , C w vl l Cl Evl

M dd).31Hwv, l d ly

d d l ( B/Lv 2012; Sl 2014; Lwv/T 2014), d-

l zd w dll vl ( d

ly d d , lv d x jd, l ly, .) d

dj l w d-. Al w

ldy v, l l d v .

30 F d y vpointly vplayerly J 2010. F,

l vl dl d. Tx

wld ll vl vl dy vl, w wld d

l ldy d .31 D w d lz, w dd dx w vl ly

d, dwldd : ://vl.-wld.d.


36/56


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Hix, Simon 2001: Llv Bv d Py C E Pl: A Al N EU, : JCMS: Jl C M Sd 39/4, 663-688.

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Hix, Simon 2004: Ell I d Llv Bv: Exl V D E- Pl, : Wld Pl 56/2, 194-223.

Hix, Simon 2005: T Pll Sy E U. 2d d., B: Plv Mll.

Hix, Simon; Hyland, Bjrn 2011: T Pll Sy E U. 3d., B: PlvMll.

Hix, Simon/Mars, Mical 2007: P P? Udd E Pl El,: T Jl Pl 69/2, 495-510.

Hix, Simon/Noury, Abdul G./Roland, Grard 2005: Pw P: C d C E Pl, 1979-2001 35/2, 209-234.

Hix, Simon/Raunio, Tapio/Scully, Rogr 2003: Fy Y : R E Pl, :JCMS: Jl C M Sd 41/2, 191-202.

Hobol, Sara B./Spoon, Ja-Ja/Tilly, Jams 2009: A V A E? Exl D 1999 d 2004 E Pl El, : B Jl Pll S 39/1, 93-115.

Hoog, Lisb 2001: T E C d I EI Gv,Cd: Cd Uvy P.

Hrl, Bjrn/Warnjn, Andras/Wonka, Arnd 2005: Bl Qd? A Dd Pdl SlMdl EU Llv D-, : Jl E Pl Ply 12/3, 592-606.


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Jan, Dlf 2010: T V Ply A M-Cv Pl: C d M,: K, T/D, M/Tl, G (d): R P d Ply C.V Ply d D-M Md D, Nw Y, NY: S (Sd Pl C, 16), 43-68.

Jan, Dlf 2011: Clz L d R Cv Pl: Twd Ddv A,: Py Pl/17, 745-765.

Jan, Dlf 2016: Evl P d Pl Hly Gllzd d Idlzd D-: T Ad S Pw A Cv Pl, Cd: CdUvy P.

Jan, Dlf/Dpon, Nils (2015): Idll M EU: E EU P Rl Gv P L-R d Evl Ply D, M. Uv-y Gwld.

Jnsn, Crisan B. 2011: Pdl C d S Ex A C EU Ll, :Gv 24/3, 495-516.

Jonson, Mary Troy 1994: T E Cl. G E Cy, Bld, CO:

Wvw P.

Kasack, Crisan 2004: T Llv I E Pl Ud Rvd C-D- Pd: Evl, Pl Hl d C P Pl, : EU Pl 5/2, 241-260.

Kr-Lindsay, Jams 2009: Pdl Pw d Ay, : K-Ldy, J/F, H(d): T Gv d Pl Cy, Ld: L, 107-124.

Kil, Brnard/Obingr, Hrbr 2003: Pll P, I, d Dy Sl Exd- T Ay, : Jl E Pl Ply 10/1, 20-45.

Knill, Crisop/Dbus, Marc/Hicl, Span 2010: D P M Ild Ply A?T I Pll P Evl Ply O 18 OECD , 1970-2000,

: E Jl Pll R 49/3, 301-336.Knig, Tomas 2007: Dv Cv? F Ev-Gw Ev-Slw E Ll-

v D M, : E Jl Pll R 46/3, 417-444.

Knig, Tomas 2008: Aly P EU Llv D-M: T M L SyS, : E U Pl 9/1, 145-165.

Knig, Tomas/Pr, Mirja 2001: Ex EU Llv P: T Rlv I A-d d V Pw, : E U Pl 2/3, 329-351.

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Linawavr, Jusn/Tomson, Robr 2014: T Mdl Llv D-M w M-

E: T R Pdv Pw B Mdl v Pdl Mdl, : E- U Pl 15/1, 43-58.

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Marks, Gary/Snbrgn, Marco R. 2002: Udd Pll C E U, :Cv Pll Sd 35/8, 879-892.

McDonald, Mical D.; Budg, Ian 2005: El, P, Dy. C Md Md,Oxd: Oxd Uvy P.

McElroy, Gail/Bnoi, Knn 2007: Py G d Ply P E Pl, :Py Pl 13/1, 5-28.

McElroy, Gail/Bnoi, Knn 2010: Py Ply d G Al E Pl, :B Jl Pll S 40/2, 377-398.


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Moravcsik, Andrw 1991: N Sl E A: Nl I d Cvl S- E Cy, : Il Oz 45/1.

Moravcsik, Andrw 1998: T C E. Sl P d S Pw M M-, I, NY: Cll Uvy P.

Mosr, Pr 2002: D Rl E U. A Rl C Pv, B:Plv Mll P.

Norris, Pippa/Franklin, Mark 1997: Sl R E Pl, : E J-l Pll R 32/2, 185-210.

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Plo, Carls R. 1991: Wll E B Exl S, : S E Jl57/4, 901-919.

Rif, Karlinz/Scmi, Hrmann 1980: N Sd-d Nl El A Cl Fw Aly E El Rl, : E Jl Pll R 8/1, 3-44.

Ross, Gorg 1995: A Dl E d Sl Ply, : Ld, S/P, Pl (d):E Sl Ply: Bw F d I, W D.C.: B I-, 357-388.

Sbragia, Albra M. 1996: T P-Pll Evl Ply-M, : Wll, Hl/Wll, Wl-l (d): Ply-M E U. 3d., Oxd: Oxd Uvy P, 235-255.

Scalk, Jlmr/Tornvlid, Rn/Wsi, Jron/Sokman, Frans N. 2007: T Pw Pdy EU Cl D-M, : E U Pl 8/2, 229-250.

Scarpf, Friz W. 1997: Id: T Pl-lv Cy Ml-lvl Gv, : Jl

E Pl Ply 4, 520-538.Scmid, Manfrd G. 1996: W P M: A Rvw Pl d L P I-

Pl Ply, : E Jl Pll R 30/2, 155-183.

Scmi, Hrmann 2005: T E Pl El J 2004: Sll Sd-Od?, : WE Pl 28/3, 650-679.

Scmi, Hrmann/Ws, Andras M. 2012: E Pj (EMP) 1979 - 2004, : ://-./-1984-dy/-dy, Ad: 12 O 2015

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Slck, Torsn J./Kading, Mical 2004: Dv I d D S R: F, Gy,

Ily, d Ud Kd EU Llv N, : F Pl 2/1, 81-95.Slck, Torsn J./Kuiprs, Sannk 2005: Sd H, J S: D, Fld, d Swd

E U Ply P, : Jl E Pl Ply 12/1, 157-176.

Slck, Torsn J./Sunnbrg, Brnard 2004: Bw Pw d L: T E Pl EULlv P, : E U Pl 5/1, 25-46.

Spsl, Knn A. 1989: Sdy I: S L Rl C A, :Jl Tl Pl 1/2, 131-147.

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Slapin, Jonaan B. 2014: M, Mdl T, d Llv I E U,

: E U Pl 15/1, 24-42.


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Sunnbrg, Brnard/Scmidcn, Dir/Kobold, Crisan 1999: S Pw EU: Evl D Pw Ply G, : Jl Tl Pl11/3, 339-366.

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Tallbrg, Jonas (d.) 2006: Ld d N E U, Cd: CdUvy P.

Tallbrg, Jonas 2008: B Pw E Cl, : JCMS: Jl C MSd 46/3, 685-708.

Tallbrg, Jonas 2010: T Pw C: Fl Ld Il C, : I-l Sd Qly 54/1, 241-265.

Tallbrg, Jonas/Joansson, Karl Magnus 2008: Py Pl E Cl, : Jl E- Pl Ply 15/8, 1222-1242.

Tarar, Amr 2001: Il B w Tw-Sdd D C, : Jl CRl 45/3, 320-340.

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Tomson, Robr 2008: T Cl Pdy E U: Rly w Pw, :JCMS: Jl C M Sd 46/3, 593-617.

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Tomson, Robr/Arrgui, Javir/Lun, Dirk/Cosllo, Rory/Cross, Jams/Hrz, Robin/Jnsn, Tomas

2012: A Nw D D- E U d 2004 d2007 El (DEUII), : Jl E Pl Ply 19/4, 604-622.

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Tsblis, Gorg/Rasc, Bjrn Erik 2011: Gv d Llv Ad S: A Id, :R, Bj E/Tl, G (d): T Rl Gv Llv Ad ,

Ld: Rld, 1-20.


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van dn Bos, Jan M. M. 1991: D EC Ply . Dl T, Ad: Uvy A-d.

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Wonka, Arnd 2007: T d Idd? T A E C d Ply Il, : Jl E Pl Ply 14/2, 169-189.


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Ax A: E C

I d dll l E Cl w

lv . F A1 w v lv E Cl: dl d dl ld x. T dl A

(2006) wd ( ll ) d l d l

d- dld ( l xl Wj

l. 2008), wl d dl Cl w v d l -

jy l. T v dl w l w lly d l, l

(dy) dvdl w (y).

Figur A1: Alv Mdll E Cl L-R D

-5

0

5

Right

Left

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Bargaining model Mean model Median model

Weight: Population Weight: GDP Weight: Seniority

Weight: Institutional power

Source: A.

T dl l l w d l d dvdl x

d w y. I dd, w l

w dy. T l l w Tll (2008) d lly

ll d d-zd v dy, wd y .

T w l vw (Tl A1): B dl d dl -

l ly (P = 0.951), d w l w l w d

l d y. I dl l andl d-,


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d dl l w E Cl. T

dl, wv, wld dwly ll d d-zd y

d- w dy. B E Cl dd d y QMV,

d y v d, d dl , wld l d l jy l. I l w , d dl lw l w

dl d w w dl.

Tabl A1: Pw Cl Alv Mdl

B

dl

M

dl

Md

dl

W:

Pl

W:

GDP

Wig:

Seniority

Wig:

Insuonal powr

B

dl

1.000

M dl 0.951 1.000

Md dl 0.827 0.870 1.000

W:

Pl

0.973 0.914 0.807 1.000

W:

GDP

0.964 0.902 0.809 0.991 1.000

W:

Sy

0.963 0.961 0.838 0.935 0.922 1.000

W:

Il

w

0.882 0.824 0.679 0.767 0.747 0.792 1.000

Source: A.

I l d y , q llw w v w?

Tl A2 dv w.

I l w, l : Pl d d -

l (P = 0.964), l l dw l l d. Hwv, ly l wly w y (P = 0.203 d 0.311

vly). I l w Tll (2008: 690) Ily l l l w

E d ll ly, w Ily vy lw

y, l lvl w Cl d E E . T l, wv, v ly -

ly E U. S y l w v

d l-d dvdl x. Sy ly

, ly d ll ly v: W

M. W, M. T, M. S d M. J Lx, xl, ly d y

1964 ( y), wl d Ily

d y 19 d . T w (ll) ll

ly d y ll . A ldy d v, d


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v Tll dy (2008: 700) ld: J ly w w

12 14 ll .

Tabl A2:Dv S Sl d Idvdl Pw ( v 2012)

Pl GDP Sy

Cy M M Mx SD M M Mx SD Mean Min Max SD

A 1.93 1.68 2.14 0.21 2.37 2.20 2.70 0.13 0.39 0.18 0.75 0.18

Bl 3.32 2.15 5.20 0.94 3.55 2.70 5.10 0.77 0.39 0.16 0.73 0.16

Bl 1.50 1.47 1.54 0.03 0.29 0.25 0.31 0.02 0.34 0.25 0.42 0.07

Cy 0.16 0.15 0.17 0.01 0.13 0.12 0.14 0.01 0.38 0.25 0.49 0.09

Cz

Rl

2.14 2.08 2.23 0.06 1.11 0.87 1.23 0.14 0.24 0.17 0.34 0.06

D 1.55 1.11 1.97 0.30 2.18 1.83 2.83 0.29 0.44 0.18 0.74 0.17

E 0.28 0.27 0.30 0.01 0.12 0.09 0.13 0.01 0.43 0.21 0.64 0.15

Fld 1.24 1.07 1.38 0.14 1.48 1.42 1.53 0.03 0.40 0.18 0.64 0.14

F 18.34 12.55 27.03 4.45 20.32 15.17 28.66 4.20 0.50 0.23 0.85 0.18

Gy 22.76 16.37 32.49 4.73 28.56 19.53 43.55 6.66 0.49 0.18 0.91 0.19

G 2.89 2.22 3.64 0.44 1.65 1.36 2.00 0.18 0.37 0.15 0.65 0.14

Hy 2.08 1.99 2.21 0.09 0.79 0.75 0.84 0.03 0.27 0.18 0.40 0.07

Ild 1.08 0.88 1.30 0.14 0.96 0.60 1.53 0.32 0.36 0.17 0.75 0.15

Ily 18.63 11.83 28.64 5.29 15.40 12.13 20.70 2.35 0.26 0.14 0.48 0.09

Lv 0.45 0.41 0.50 0.03 0.15 0.11 0.18 0.03 0.27 0.16 0.43 0.10

L 0.66 0.60 0.74 0.05 0.22 0.17 0.26 0.03 0.35 0.18 0.48 0.10

Lx 0.13 0.10 0.18 0.03 0.24 0.18 0.33 0.04 0.59 0.18 0.99 0.22

Ml 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.00 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.00 0.47 0.16 0.68 0.17

Nld 4.81 3.32 6.97 1.09 5.34 4.47 7.03 0.79 0.42 0.15 0.78 0.16

Pld 7.91 7.68 8.35 0.30 2.59 1.93 2.95 0.36 0.30 0.16 0.52 0.13

Pl 2.64 2.11 3.12 0.35 1.34 1.03 1.50 0.13 0.42 0.17 0.70 0.15

R 4.12 4.02 4.29 0.10 1.03 1.00 1.12 0.04 0.31 0.15 0.45 0.12

Slv 1.11 1.08 1.17 0.04 0.50 0.43 0.55 0.05 0.37 0.20 0.62 0.15

Slv 0.42 0.41 0.44 0.01 0.28 0.26 0.30 0.02 0.30 0.18 0.45 0.10S 10.58 9.10 11.97 0.98 7.69 6.55 8.90 0.70 0.52 0.18 0.84 0.17

Swd 2.14 1.85 2.38 0.24 2.86 2.48 3.16 0.17 0.46 0.19 0.72 0.17

G B 17.20 12.41 21.94 3.31 16.18 13.34 19.07 1.60 0.44 0.18 0.79 0.17

Total 7.30 0.08 32.49 8.26 7.30 0.04 43.55 9.04 0.42 0.14 0.99 0.18

Nos: Gy dd vl d w vl w. Sources:

Pl: ES; GDP: Wld B; Sy: w ll.

Source: A.


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I , dl l E Cl l d lly -

l w v l d l l w

d- w dy. I dd, y y w l

l andl d- w E Cl. Wl dl y lly y, l w vd qlv d.

Ax B: E C

W d d- dl y dl,

ld x, w dl, d dl, d llv dl (F B1).

T dl j l- l, w llv dl w

E C w E Cl (w

l dl ld). I C x

, l d (llv dl), dd v ld

y E Cl.

Figure B1: Alv Mdll E C L-R D

-5

0

5

Right

Left

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Bargaining model Mean model Median model

Legislative model Position of European Council

Source: A.

When considering the pairwise correlaons (Table B1) our bargaining model and the legislave model cor-

relate comparavely weakly (Pearsons r = 0.835). Unsurprisingly, all correlaons of the legislave model with

the principal-agent models are relavely low, indicang the substanal impact of this modelling decision.


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Table B1: Pw Cl Alv Mdl

B dl M dl Md dl Llv dl

B dl 1.000M dl 0.859 1.000

Md dl 0.898 0.971 1.000

Llv dl 0.835 0.489 0.547 1.000

Source: A.

T lw l d d dl w q dl -

dy d l v l. I

d d v ql w d d

w E C (without l- dll)

lv dl: Fly , dld x (ql w), dly, w l

ll w v Pd (99:1) d dly w l ll w v C (1:99).

F lly d w l w C l. I

lv w w C, q

d vll, ll l l w . F B2 d l l

lv. Al dl dv, ld , l- l

-100 +100. A d, ld lw .

Nvl, Adx F w w d y l EU

w lv w.

Figure B2: P C d D W Gv Pd d C

-5

0

5

Right

Left

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Upper and lower boundary Bargaining modelSource: A.


47/56


I , dl l E C dv

l- l, wl d dl within C d l d.

Ax C: C M

Dd j, Cl M lly v d qld jy v l

y l. F C1 llw lv dl: Cl dld

x, dl, Cl lly d y v l d QMV, d QMV

wd y v, d llv dl ( , Cl w E

Cl).

T d QMV d QMV wd y v dy: Ud

QMV dy l l d w l y v w -

. Hwv, y l ld l l

l. I , QMV wd y v v v w

l . T l d dll d Cl lly dd

y . T dy v l d v l d

w l v w, v w l d d

; vl , / ly d y

l. T wld , dy - w

wy dl .

Table C1: Pw Cl Alv Mdl

Bargaining model Mean model Unanimity QMV weighted

by votes

Lgislav modl

B dl 1.000

M dl 0.906 1.000

Uy 0.922 0.946 1.000

QMV wd

y v

0.868 0.924 0.848 1.000

Llv dl 0.752 0.703 0.669 0.881 1.000

Source: A.

Tl C1 w w l v dl. T dl y w

w x l dl, , ly d xv

. T lw l dl d QMV wd y v l

Cl w dlld d y l 1987 ( l w l -

y dl). W l l d 1988 2012 ly (w QMV

l), dll QMV wd ( dl) wd y v d

dlly l l (P = 0.907). T l dl

d dl (P = 0.906) , w d


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dl l andl d-. Uly, llv dl

x vy lw l ll dl. T d y F C1, w l ll

dl l- d.

Figure C1: Alv Mdll Cl M L-R D

-5

0

5

Right

Left

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Bargaining model Mean model Unanimity voting rule

QMV weighted by votes Legislative model Position of European Council

Source: A.

Sl C, Cl M d x ,

dd y E Cl. T , wv, lw. T, ,

dl l Cl M d dl Cl E Cl, w C

Adx A. Uy d wll dl, wl v

w (l lly ) d l l y l d.


49/56


Ax D: E P

T E Pl E Cl, ly lv dl

d, ly d dl. Hwv, v E Pldd d jy l, dl l . F D 1 w dl l-

d d dl d ( w l dl q lw w

P = 0.639). Ex d d-1980 d-1990, dl

d dl, w d vl . T

dl l x -w dl.

Figure D1: Alv Mdll E Pl L-R D

-5

0

5

Right

Left

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Bargaining model Mean model

Source: A.

L v dl -l d-, -

ld j d w w lz C d

Cl E Cl. F vw l-

dl, l d E Cl. Hwv, dd

w dvdl , y (lly) l

dw.


50/56


Ax E: C P

Al l d (T/Hl 2006: 409) w Cl M w

d C d d (1987-1993) d -d I (1993-1999), ld d w l. I d w

d, w lv (lv l- dl d): T

dl, dd x, v w Cl C

(F E1). T d dl v ql w , wl d v , ,

C wl. T l w dl w 99:1 d 1:99.

A xld Adx B, q d vl, d l

vl.

Figure E1: C P d D W

-5

0

5

Right

Left

1985 1990 1995 2000

Upper and lower boundary Bargaining model

Equal weight Power to Commission (3:1)

Source: A.

T w l (Tl E1) vw Cl M dd wl,

l dl d ql w d

dl w C w. I , Cl lly l dw

l w dl . Hwv, v d ql w

d l, lly ll l- l -100 +100. Adv

w C wl E d


51/56


y d l, l w dl, l w ql

w dl, lly lw.

Table E1: Pw Cl Alv W

Bargaining model Equal weight Power to Commission

LR

B dl 1.000

Eql w 0.925 1.000

Pw C 0.627 0.876 1.000

Source: A.

Ax F: F P E U

E dll d l . T, w y

dl, ld x, w dl, d dl, d

llv dl (F F1). Gv l d l, w ld

vy . Nvl, w dl, wd

, w d dl d jy v l. Flly, ll-

v dl l E Cl w v y , d

C Cl M w d . I d w w

w vl w d l (F F 2), ly

w w d d w E C ( Adx

B dl), d w w C d Cl M w

( Adx E dl).


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Figure F1: Alv Mdll Llv P EU L-R D

-5

0

5

Right

Left

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Bargaining model Mean model

Median model Legislative model

Source: A.

A d d d, d dl

C d Cl M E Cl. Elly 1980

E U wld v l-l wl l wld v l l w ll

dl. I , wl EU wld lly x , dd y

E Cl. T l w dl, d d dl

lly l l. T d y w l (Tl F1): All l 0.93. I llv dl lly l

dl, w w ll E , wll ll - d -l

d-, . T d dl dv ly dl. T

llv dl lw l w d d dl.


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Table F1: Pw Cl Alv Mdll (L-R D)

B

dl

M

dl

Md

dl

Llv

dl

Pw

wC. 99:1

Pw

wC. 1:99

C

P. 1:1

C

P. 3:1

B

dl

1.000

M

dl

0.954 1.000

Md

dl

0.936 0.954 1.000

Llv

dl

0.966 0.870 0.867 1.000

Pw

w

C. 99:1

0.997 0.961 0.937 0.959 1.000

Pw

w

C. 1:99

0.998 0.948 0.932 0.966 0.992 1.000

C

P. 1:1

1.000 0.956 0.939 0.963 0.997 0.997 1.000

C

P. 3:1

0.999 0.958 0.939 0.962 0.998 0.995 0.999 1.000

Source: A.

Tl F1 ldy d w vl w d, w lv

d (1987-1993) d -d I (1993-1999), v ly l

vll l. W w d d ,

C w d Cl M y , -

dlly l (ll l > 0.99). D dl ,

w Adx B d E v w l d w l w y w E U v d l

l . A d, w d l. Hwv, w ly

v dl, w l w (qlv) d.

All l ql, F F2 l l EU w lv w. Al

w dl, w l w d w

w C (Pw w C 99:1), d v v (Pw w C

1:99). T l dl ll l w Cl ql w

C P, y, w C w

Cl M.


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Figure F2: Fl P w Alv W C d C P

-5

0

5

Right

Left

1985 1990 1995 2000

Bargaining model

Power within Com. 99:1 Power within Com 1:99

Common Pos. 1:1 Common Pos. 3:1

Source: A.

T : Al (w) d vl , l

l. I , dl , wl d dl

(ylzd) jy v l, l w dl l

l d l d l E U, d dl w

l ly.


55/56



56/56

T K-F - E A Ex

I R

T Kll-F (KFG) d ld y G R Fd (D F- - DFG) 2008. A R Cll, dd v-d lly l v vv w ll d j .

T Kll-F T Tv Pw E -v w d d d . D , 2008-2012, KFG dd d ly d d w E U (EU), dd d d. D d , 2012-2016, KFG l d d,l, d yd E (v l)d ly EU v d xl .I w :

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Estimating the Position of the European Union: A Tool for Macro-Quantitative Studies