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Estimating the Costs, Capacity (Supply), and Tradeoffs of Ecosystem Services in a Resource
Assessment
R. Bernknopf University of New Mexico
S. Faulkner USGS Leetown Science Center
B. Chivoiu USGS National Wetlands Research Center
ACES December 12, 2012
Key Policy Questions
What are the ecosystem effects from likely terrestrial carbon sequestration management actions? How do we incorporate social and economic sciences that enhance our ability to quantitatively evaluate the full range of effects of proposed terrestrial carbon sequestration strategies? How does it affect the benefits of the policy?
B = P ´DQ( )
There are many analyses about the economic uncertainty of values for ecosystem services that is reflected in the price or nonmarket value. Few, if any estimates of the effect of uncertainty of the quantity of ecosystem services? Reliability of the policy - Do we get all the benefits from a management activity that analysis tells we should? Objective is to maximize benefits and minimize uncertainty simultaneously
Motivation for research
Mitigation Actions:
Land Use/ Cover
Management
Policy Portfolios
and Mitigation Options
Ecosystem Structure, Processes
and Function
Ecosystem Goods
and Services
Ecological evaluation
Policy/Management strategies and ecosystem services approach
Portfolio Analysis
Valuation Benefits / Costs
Quantitative Spatially Explicit Metrics
+ Economic evaluation
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
Carbon Sequestration
Waterfowl
NitrateWater Supply
Sediment Retention
Baseline
Targeted Reforestation
Max Eucalyptus
Spider diagram of management scenarios for five ecosystem services
Policy scenarios and benefits
A policy scenario i, i=1,…,N scenarios is composed of a land portfolio in a region of k, k=1,…,K land units of land uses that produces market commodities Vi and ecosystem services benefits . For any scenario i there is a regional land grid of available agricultural lands that, if converted to forest in a scenario, has annualized net value of benefits Bi. A policy is weighted by the emphasis placed on the types of services provisioned.
Bi Z( ) = bz( )k
k=1
K
å , i =1,...,N
Bi Z( )
A land use / land cover (LULC) portfolio analysis of an afforestation
policy that maximizes the production of ecosystem services
(expected return on investment (ROI)) and minimizes the standard
deviation (risk) of the quantity of ecosystem services produced given
their values.
Research approach
r =Bt -B0
B0
s = BiB js i
i=2
N
åi=2
N
å s j
Multiobjective Optimization
Two objectives are to maximize B and minimize risk σ, which can be converted to a single objective to minimize the relative risk – coefficient of variation:
Min CV B( )N
s.t. Bi ³ B0
where CV =s N
rN
Expected return vs. standard deviation
B0
0
B1
B2
B*
Lower limit benefit constraint
Bi
rN
s N
Scenario 1: Baseline – no change in current land cover (forest, agriculture,
restored forested wetlands)
Scenario 2: Convert agriculture to forest through targeted afforestation
by selecting specific landscape locations
- hydric soils, soybean production, low elevation
- high hydrologic connectivity score
- watersheds with currently high sediment and nutrient loads
- near watershed outlet
- native Quercus/Carya species
- increase current forest area by 15% over 20 years
Carbon Management Strategy - Increase
biological carbon sequestration on the landscape
to mitigate increasing CO2/climate change effects
Scenario 3: Convert agriculture to forest through random afforestation
- fast growing Eucalyptus species
- increase current forest area by 15% over 20 years
- harvest every 10 years (biomass energy)
Scenario 4: Convert all agriculture to Eucalyptus forest through
random afforestation
Two Parishes in LA – Madison and Tensas
Carbon Management Strategy - Increase
biological carbon sequestration on the landscape
to mitigate increasing CO2/climate change effects
Current Practice in MAV: random conversion of cropland to forests
Targeting afforestation to enhance other ecosystem services
Sink
Source
Connector
“Prices” and quantities for ecosystem services
Scenario Baseline Eucalyptus (15%)
Targeted reforestation
(15%)
Eucalyptus (max)
P(carbon)1 $10.09 $10.09 $10.09 $10.09
P(waterfowl)2 $7.90 $7.90 $7.90 $7.90
P(Water quality – nitrate)3 $624.00 $624.00 $624.00 $624.00
P(Water quality – sediment)4 $2.76 $2.76 $2.76 $2.76
P(Water quantity)5 $0.0003 $0.0003 $0.0003 $0.0003
Q (carbon) mg/ha 173 191 186 351
Q (waterfowl) in 000 36,308.6 36,191.4 42,949.0 35,876.1
Q(Water quality – nitrate) kg/ha 7.8 7.7 9.7 8.0
Q(Water quality–sediment) metric tons 12,851 12,426 7,253 4,908
Q(Water annual flow) m3/s 2,133 2,096 1,997 1,614
1 California cap and trade market 2012 2 Gascoigne et al 2011 3 Jenkins et al 2010 4 Hansen and Ribaudo 2008 5 delivery cost price for a ft3
Forest establishment and maintenance costs
Land prices: Madison Parish - $1,675/ha - $4,586/ha Tensas Parish - $4,700/ha - $7,384/ha Hectares converted to forest – 9,632 (15%); 86,747 (MAX) Total hectares – 167,745 ha
Afforestation activity Establishment costs/ha ($2009) Establishment and maintenance costs/ha ($2009)
Eucalyptus Land preparation 252 Weed control 264 Plantation establishment 112 Seedlings 416
Fertilization 151 Fire and safety 2 Weed control 142
Hardwood Land preparation 145 Saplings and planting 209 Supervision 109
Weed control 72 Boundary 8 Management 32
Gonzalez et 2011 Zhu et al 2010
Ecosystem service expected return and standard deviation
Scenario Baseline Eucalyptus (15%)
Targeted reforestation
(15%)
Eucalyptus (max)
r(carbon) 0.10 0.08 1.03
r(waterfowl) -0.003 0.18 -0.01
r(Water quality – nitrate) -0.013 0.24 0.03
r(Water quality – sediment) 0.03 0.44 0.62
r(Water quantity) -0.02 -0.06 -0.24
σ(carbon) 162 160 157 292
σ(waterfowl) 16,923,356 16,630,274 17,668,619 17,509,519
σ(Water quality – nitrate) 14.1 13.9 14.9 14.4
σ(Water quality – sediment) 14,478 14,413 7,599 5,503
σ(Water quantity) 2,888 2,834 2,581 2,161
Management scenario return, uncertainty, and coefficient of variation
Scenario CV Eucalyptus (15%) – B1 -0.02 48,707 2,435,350
Targeted reforestation (15%) – B2 0.16 43,081 269,256
Eucalyptus (max) – B3 1.43 51,998 36,362
r s
Summary
We have integrated natural and economic sciences in a multiobjective optimization analysis to better understand the impacts and tradeoffs involved in comparing reforestation management scenarios with different objectives in a risk – return analytical framework. From our analysis the targeted hardwood scenario has a lower coefficient of variation that indicates it is a better management option.