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Estimating Passenger Flows on the
London Underground using Oyster Data
Harsha Ravichandran • 17 July 2013
Ridership Analysis
How many people take the Piccadilly Line during
the AM Peak?
How well does the supply of trains match this?
Ridership Analysis
Performed for the
Full AM Peak (7am-10am)
For the peak 30 minutes of the AM Peak
But which are the peak 30 minutes?
Eastbound (EB) and Westbound (WB) directions
Averaged from May 9-13 2011
Data Used
Oyster
A record for every journey made in the Underground
No data on route taken
RODS (Rolling Origin-Destination Survey)
Rolling survey on user route choice
Does not cover all possible OD pairs
Gateline totals
Information on total number of passengers entering/exiting a station
Methodology
Query Oyster for trips &
expand
Use RODS to figure out
path choice
Aggregate trips
What to Query?
All trips?
Only Piccadilly-Piccadilly trips?
Something else?
What about non-oyster trips?
Expansion factors from Gateline totals
Isn’t that all we need?
D O
What does RODS tell us?
Path 1 X%
Path 2 Y%
Path 3 Z%
What does RODS tell us?
Description OD pairs Trips
Total Queried (for 5 days) 28,822 1.17 mil
RODS data available 34% 76%
Can we infer more from RODS?
Assumption #1
OD pairs inferred: 34% 39%
Trips inferred: 76% 80%
D O
D O
Assumption #2
D O
D* O
OD pairs inferred: 39% 60%
Trips inferred: 80% 92%
Assumption #3
D O
D O
OD pairs inferred: 60% 65%
Trips inferred: 92% 95%
Next Steps
The remaining 5%
Loads on segments Ridership profile
What about those other trips?
>2 transfers, Piccadilly line in the middle 4%
What about service frequencies?
24 scheduled trains per hour in Central London
How many do they really operate?
Capacity: 800 passengers/train
Peak of the Peak
Which is the peak 30 minute period?
Central London: King’s Cross – South Kensington
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
7:00 -
7:30
7:10 -
7:40
7:20 -
7:50
7:30 -
8:00
7:40 -
8:10
7:50 -
8:20
8:00 -
8:30
8:10 -
8:40
8:20 -
8:50
8:30 -
9:00
8:40 -
9:10
8:50 -
9:20
9:00 -
9:30
9:10 -
9:40
9:20 -
9:50
9:30 -
10:00
Central London Arrivals
Acceptable Trips
Compute acceptable intervals for every station
When should a trip start (or end) to reach Piccadilly Circus
between 8:40 and 9:10?
Filter trips
Repeat analysis for the “acceptable” trips
Supply
Assume all scheduled trips are operated