Estimating Net International Migration for the United States

Elizabeth M. GriecoImmigration Statistics Staff

U.S. Census Bureau

Presentation for the joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics,

Geneva, 3-5 March 2008

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Overview of Presentation How does the Census Bureau estimate

net international migration? How does the Census Bureau use the

American Community Survey (ACS) to estimate net international migration?

How does the Census Bureau estimate the emigration of the foreign born?

What are the results of the vintage 2007 net international migration estimates?

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Population Estimates The U.S. Census Bureau produces annual

estimates of the population and demographic components of change (births, deaths, and migration)

One component of the population estimates is net international migration (NIM), defined as the net movement across U.S. borders 50 states and the District of Columbia

For this presentation NIM does not include international movement of U.S. military personnel

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Sub-Components of the Net International Migration Estimates

This presentation will discuss:• Net foreign-born migration between the United

States and abroad• Net movement between the United States and

Puerto Rico• Net movement of natives between the United States

and abroad

National-level estimate, distributed: To the county level By detailed characteristics

Age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin

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Using the American Community Survey (ACS) to Estimate NIM Annual nationwide survey NIM estimates, and estimates research, use

seven years of ACS data, 2000-2006 (household population only)

Full implementation: 2005 Sample size (in thousands):

ACS data year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Initial addresses selected

891 858 742 829 838 2,923 2,885

Final interviews 588 602 513 572 569 1,925 1,968

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ACS Question: Citizenship

“Is this person a CITIZEN of the United States?”

Yes, U.S. citizen by naturalization No, not a citizen of the United States

Native

Foreign born

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ACS Question: Residence One Year Ago

“Did this person live in this house or apartment 1 year ago?”

No, outside the United States – Print name of foreign country, or Puerto Rico, Guam, etc. below_____________________

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Old Method (used 2002-2006):Single Year Change (SYC)

PR: NetMig

Net migration between the U.S. (50 states and D.C.) and Puerto Rico

FB: NetMig

Single Year Change

Change in FB population during interval(SYC = FB in ACS t2 – FB in ACS t1)

FB: Deaths

Deaths to FB population during interval

+ + N: Emig

Native emigration

-

Net Foreign BornMigration (NFB)

Data source:NCHS life tables, ACS population

Data source:ACS

Data source:DAPE research

Data source:DAPE research

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Problems with NFB Estimates Based on Single Year Change High standard errors Sensitive to changes in survey

population controls Annual reweighting of ACS data

required to provide consistent series of NFB estimates

Estimate is a net, and must be distributed as such No separate estimates of ins/outs

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New Method (proposed for v.2008):Residence One Year Ago (ROYA)

Net Foreign BornMigration

Data source:Rates applied to ACS FB population

Data source:ACS

Data source:ACS

Data source:ISS research

Data source:ACS

PR: Immig

Migration from Puerto Rico to the U.S. (50 states and D.C.)

+ N: Immig

Native immigration

-FB: Immig

Residence One Year Ago Was Abroad Foreign born, who were “abroad” one year ago

FB: Emig

Emigration of the foreign-born population during interval

- PR: Emig

Migration from the U.S. (50 states and D.C.) to Puerto Rico

Data source:PRCS

Net Puerto RicoMigration

N: Emig

Native emigration

+

-

Net Native Migration

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ROYA: Foreign-Born Immigrants Question on ACS: Where did this

person live one year ago? Immigrants: Foreign-born who were

abroad (outside the U.S. and U.S. outlying areas) one year ago, plus an adjustment for zero-year-old entrants

Estimates range from 1,032,000 to 1,431,000*

*numbers are rounded

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ROYA: Foreign-Born Emigrants Residual method used to generate

rates by period of entry (more than/less than 10 years ago)

Rate applied to eligible population (eligible to emigrate)

Eligible population: Foreign-born who were in the U.S. one year ago (ACS)

Estimates range from 211,000 to 232,000*

*numbers are rounded

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ROYA: Puerto Rico Immigrants Question on ACS: Where did this

person live one year ago? Immigrants (moved from P.R. to U.S.):

People in ACS who reported a residence one year ago of Puerto Rico, plus an adjustment for zero-year-old entrants

Estimates range from 47,000 to 63,000*

*numbers are rounded

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ROYA: Puerto Rico Emigrants Question on Puerto Rico Community

Survey (PRCS): Where did this person live one year ago?

Emigrants (moved from U.S. to P.R.): People in PRCS who reported a residence one year ago of the U.S., plus an adjustment for zero-year-old emigrants

Estimates range from 30,000 to 35,000* *numbers are rounded

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ROYA: Native Immigration

Question on ACS: Where did this person live one year ago?

Immigrants: Natives who were abroad (outside the U.S. and U.S. outlying areas) one year ago, plus an adjustment for zero-year-old entrants

Estimates range from 379,000 to 470,000*

*numbers are rounded

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ROYA: Native Emigration

Currently doing research to update the estimate of this subcomponent for our 2008 estimates

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1. Estimate emigration for 2000 to 2005 and 2000 to 2006 by period of entry groups using a “residual” method

2. Create annual emigration rates

3. Estimate annual emigration of the foreign born

How Does the U.S. Census Bureau Estimate Foreign-Born Emigration?

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Residual Method of Estimating Emigration: 2000 - 2005

Foreign-Born Emigration (2000-2005) =

(FB Pop (Census 2000) – Deaths (2000-2005)) – FB Pop (ACS 2005)

Time 1 data source: Census 2000 (weight: pwt)Time 2 data source: ACS 2005 (weight: pwgt)(in thousands)

Pop, time 1 (Census 2000)

Deaths (2000 to 2005)

Pop, time 2(ACS 2005)

Emigration (2000 - 2005)

Total Emigration 30,189 1,121 27,747 1,321Period-of-Entry-Specific

Prior to 1990 17,712 933 16,505 2731990-1999 12,476 188 11,241 1,047

Note: Both Census 2000 and ACS 2005 data are restricted to the foreign-born population whose year of entry was 1999 or

earlier.

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Residual Method of Estimating Emigration: 2000 - 2006

Foreign-Born Emigration (2000-2006) =

(FB Pop (Census 2000) – Deaths (2000-2006)) – FB Pop (ACS 2006)

Time 1 data source: Census 2000 (weight: pwt)Time 2 data source: ACS 2006 (weight: pwgt)(in thousands)

Pop, time 1 (Census 2000)

Deaths (2000 to 2006)

Pop, time 2(ACS 2006)

Emigration (2000 - 2006)

Total Emigration 30,189 1,359 27,598 1,231Period-of-Entry-Specific

Prior to 1990 17,712 1,129 16,284 2991990-1999 12,476 230 11,314 933

Note: Both Census 2000 and ACS 2006 data are restricted to the foreign-born population whose year of entry was 1999 or

earlier.

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Create Annual Emigration Rates(numbers in thousands)

Time 1 data source: Census 2000 (weight: pwt)Time 2 data source: ACS 2006 (weight: pwgt)

Emigration (2000 - 2006)

Annual Emigration (total emigration / 6.25)

Annual Emigration Rate ((annual emig / pop time1 ) * 100)

Total Emigration 1,231 197 0.65Period-of-Entry-Specific

Prior to 1990 299 48 0.271990-1999 933 149 1.20

Note: Above rates are based on un-rounded numbers and expressed as percents.

Time 1 data source: Census 2000 (weight: pwt)Time 2 data source: ACS 2005 (weight: pwgt)

Emigration (2000 - 2005)

Annual Emigration (total emigration / 5.25)

Annual Emigration Rate ((annual emig / pop time1 ) * 100)

Total Emigration 1,321 251 0.83Period-of-Entry-Specific

Prior to 1990 273 52 0.291990-1999 1,047 199 1.60

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Final Annual Emigration Rates

• Average the period-of-entry specific emigration rates for the 2000-2005 and 2000-2006 time periods

• Final Rates (percent per year): – Period of entry more than 10 years ago: 0.28– Period of entry within the last 10 years: 1.40

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Estimate Annual Emigration of the Foreign Born

• Apply period-of-entry specific rates to each year of ACS, 2000 to 2005, to estimate annual foreign-born emigration

• Population in universe: foreign-born population whose residence one year ago was in the United States

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Annual Foreign-Born Emigration: 2000-2005(numbers in thousands)

ACS Data Year

Total Annual Emigration

Period of Entry = More than 10 years

ago

(Emig Rate: 0.28)

Period of Entry = Within last 10

years

(Emig Rate: 1.40)

2000 212 48 1642001 214 52 1622002 226 55 1712003 230 57 1732004 231 59 1732005 242 61 181

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Constructing Final Vintage 2007 NIM Estimates Transition from old to new method by

phasing in the new method Average v.2006 SYC-based

estimates and v.2007 ROYA-based estimates (by subcomponent) to create final v.2007 NIM estimates

Estimate year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

v.2006 SYC NIM 349 1,396 1,396 1,232 1,103 1,174 1,174

v.2007 ROYA NIM 303 1,213 1,149 1,011 907 891 944

Average 326 1,305 1,272 1,122 1,005 1,032 1,059

(in thousands)

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ROYA- and SYC-based NIM Estimates, 2001-2008 Periods

350

550

750

950

1150

1350

1550

1750

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

Estimate Period (July 1 to June 30)

ROYA-based NIM, v.2007FINAL VINTAGE 2007 NIMSYC-based NIM (smoothed), v.2006

(in thousands)

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ROYA- and SYC-based NIM Estimates, 2001-2008 Periods

350

550

750

950

1150

1350

1550

1750

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

Estimate Period (July 1 to June 30)

ROYA-based NIM, v.2007FINAL VINTAGE 2007 NIMSYC-based NIM (smoothed), v.2006(in thousands)

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For More Information

Elizabeth M. GriecoChief, Immigration Statistics StaffEmail: Elizabeth.M.Grieco@census.govPhone: 301-763-5275Website: www.census.gov