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Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
CSIROOCEANSANDATMOSPHERE
SeanPascoe,AmarDoshi,MladenKovacandAngelicaAustinAustralianCoastalCouncilsConference,Brisbane,May2017
Outline
• Roleofeconomicvaluesincoastalplanning• Manyvalues!• Combiningtechniquestoestimatecoastalvalues• Multi-criteria approaches (AHP)• Choiceexperiment• Somekeyresults
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods2 |
Acknowledgement:Thestudywassupported bytheNSWEnvironmentTrustEnvironmentalResearchProgram,Project2014/RD/0017,andCSIROOceansandAtmosphere
• Coastalassetshavevaluesthatarenotaccountedforinthemarketplace• Can’tbuyorsellahectareofbeach• Coastaldevelopmentincreasinglyimpingingonthecoastalenvironment• Benefit costanalysisrecommended inNSWtoinformcoastalmanagementoptionsbeingconsidered bycouncils
• Climatechangeadaptationworkstoprotectcoastalresourcesexpensive• Howdowejustifyorprioritise thiswhenbudgetsarelimitedandothercompetinguses forthefunds?
• Marinereserveplanningalsorequireestimatesofnaturalcapitalvalues• Onlyfew(andlimited)studiesoncoastalvaluesinAustralia
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
Roleofeconomicvaluesincoastalplanningandmanagement
3 |
• Coastalenvironmentshavemanycomponentswithdifferentvalues• “traditional”non-market valuetechniques are– inpractice– limitedtodealingwithonlyafewcomponentsatatime
• Thebasicpremiseofthisstudy…• Relativewillingness topayreflect relativepreferences– Preference elicitationtechniques shouldbeabletoapproximaterelativeWTP
– Multicriteriapreference elicitationtechniques canaccommodatealargernumberofalternatives thanmostnon-market valuationtechniques
• Non-marketvaluation techniquescanbeapplied toderivevalues forkeyassets– Thesecanbescaled forotherassetsbasedontherelativepreferences
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
Aimandchallengeofthisstudy
4 |
• Onlinesurveyof1400NSWcoastalresidents
• Multicriteriaanalysisapproach (AnalyticHierarchyProcess (AHP))used toderive relative importanceofallassets
• Choiceexperiment used toestimateWTPfortheshorebasedassetsonly
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
Sowhatwedid…
5 |
Keynaturalcapitalassetstobeexaminedinthisstudy
Location KeyAssetShoreline Beaches
RockyshoreHeadlands
Backshore SanddunesAdjacentscrublandFreshwaterLakes/Rivers
Intertidal EstuariesMangrovesSaltmarsh
Aquatic SeagrassReefsSandyseabed
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
Somesampledetails
6 |
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
Beachvisitation
7 |
• Geometricmeanmethod• Lessinfluenced by“extreme” preferences
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
AHPapproach
8 |
1/
,1
1/
,1
nn
i kk
ni n
i kk k
a
aω =
=
⎛ ⎞⎜ ⎟⎝ ⎠=⎛ ⎞⎜ ⎟⎝ ⎠
∏
∑ ∏
12. A=Shoreline(Beach,headland,rockyshore); B=Backshore(dunes,scrubland,lakes/rivers)
AllA(noB)
MostlyA
MuchmoreA
MoreA
equalimportance
A=B
MoreB
MuchmoreB
MostlyB
AllB(noA)
(codefrom1to17lefttoright)
IncreasingimportanceofA IncreasingimportanceofB
, 9i ka =, 1i ka =
, 1 / 9i ka =
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
Hierarchy
9 |
Coastalassets
Shoreline
Sandybeach
Rockyshore
Headland
Backshore
Sanddune
Adjacentscrubland
Freshwaterlakes/rivers
Intertidal
Estuaries
Mangroves
Saltmarsh
Aquatic
Seagrass
Reefs
Sandyseabed
• D-efficientdesigndevelopedusingNGENE• Fourblocksof6choicesets(total100ha– justtradingoffassets)• Twoblocksof6choicesets (varyingsize– sizeandassets)• Scenario:CoastalareastobeprotectedthroughRegionalConservationPlans• Paymentmechanism:Environmentallevyincludedinquarterlyrates(indefinitelevy).
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
Choicemodel
10 |
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
AHPResults
11 |
• Widerangeofpreferencesforbeachgoers• Non-beachgoerswerelargelyindifferent
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
Relativetosandybeach
12 |
Medianrelativevalues
• Medianrelativevalues– relativetosandybeach• Usingalldata• Usingdataonlyforthosethatvisitedthebeachinthelast12months• Removingthosethatwere“indifferent”betweenthedifferentassets
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods13 |
Coefficient StandardError z sig
Randomparametersinutilityfunctions
Sandybeach(ha) 0.056 0.002 36.170 ***Dunesandscrubland(ha) 0.047 0.002 28.790 ***Headlandandrockyshore(ha) 0.037 0.002 21.720 ***Cost($/household/quarter) -0.062 0.002 -30.050 ***Non-randomparametersinutilityfunctions ASC 1.517 0.222 6.820 ***Male -0.226 0.099 -2.280 **Age 0.011 0.003 3.470 ***Sydney -0.148 0.105 -1.400 Income -0.002 0.001 -2.520 **NSWNationalParkannualpass -0.509 0.174 -2.930 ***Environmentalgroupmember -0.662 0.234 -2.840 ***Distancefrombeach -0.002 0.001 -2.320 **Distributionofrandomparameters(standarddeviations) Sandybeach 0.056 0.002 36.170 ***Dunesandscrubland 0.047 0.002 28.790 ***Headlandandrockyshore 0.037 0.002 21.720 ***Cost 0.062 0.002 30.050 ***
• RandomparametersmodelestimatedinNLOGIT
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
Choiceexperimentpreliminaryresults
14 |
Non-randomparameters indicate likelihood thattherespondentwouldchoose“none”• Nosignificant differencebetweenSydney/non-Sydney• Likelihood increaseswithage• Likelihood decreaseswithothervariables
Indicatesthatthevariableis
highlystatisticallysignificant
Notstatistically significant
• Assetvaluesscaleduptoannualfigure,discountedindefinitelyassuming4%discountrate(lowerboundsuggestedbyTreasury)• RelativevaluesforotherassetsreasonablysimilartothosederivedfromAHP(directcomparisondifficultascombinedinthechoiceexperiment)
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
Derivedeconomicvalues
15 |
CoastalAsset WillingnesstoPay Relativetobeach
$/ha/quarter NPV$/ha/household
Fromchoicemodel
FromAHP
Beach $0.90 $89.82
Dunesandscrubland
$0.76 $75.70 0.843 0.630
Headlandsandrockyshores
$0.60 $59.69 0.665 0.630
• Mixedlogitmodelrecognisesthatthereisvariabilityinvaluesofindividuals
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
Variabilityinvalues
16 |
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
Expandingthevalues….
17 |
Asset AHP MLM($/ha/household)
SandyBeach 1.000 $89.82
Headland 0.794 $71.29
Rockyshoreline 0.474 $42.60
Dunes 0.699 $62.82
AdjacentScrubland 0.568 $51.04
FreshwaterLakes 0.777 $69.80
Estuary 0.467 $41.92
Saltmarsh 0.358 $32.19
Mangroves 0.529 $47.49
Seagrass 0.751 $67.44
Reefs 0.556 $49.90
SandySeabed 0.801 $71.93
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
Anexampleofwhatthismaymean
18 |
• ManlyBeach(ManlyShirepopulation)
• Forcomparison…• VacantlotnearManlyBeach– Askingprice$4-4.4m– Landsize690m2
– Valueperha=$57,971,014• Sobeachesarestillrelativelycheaprealestate!
Sandybeach Adjacentpark
Households 18,050
Value/ha $1,621,251 $575,434
Area (ha) 10.35 2.8
Totalvalue $16,779,948 $1,611,215
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
Furtherafield…Estimatedvalue$m/ha
19 |
Manly Warringah Byron Coffs
Households 18,050 58,300 11,197 27,614
SandyBeach $1.62 $5.24 $1.01 $2.48
Headland $1.29 $4.16 $0.80 $1.97
Rockyshoreline $0.77 $2.48 $0.48 $1.18
Dunes $1.13 $3.66 $0.70 $1.73
AdjacentScrubland $0.92 $2.98 $0.57 $1.41
FreshwaterLakes $1.26 $4.07 $0.78 $1.93
Estuary $0.76 $2.44 $0.47 $1.16
Saltmarsh $0.58 $1.88 $0.36 $0.89
Mangroves $0.86 $2.77 $0.53 $1.31
Seagrass $1.22 $3.93 $0.76 $1.86
Reefs $0.90 $2.91 $0.56 $1.38
SandySeabed $1.30 $4.19 $0.81 $1.99
• Projectisstillgoingforacoupleofmonths• Potentialchangesinsomeofthesevalues
• Keyquestion• Howfaroutdowegointermsofhouseholds?
• Thesecaptureassetvalues• Recreational usevaluesarelikelytobesubstantiallyhigher (asiscontributiontolocaleconomies)
Estimatingcoastalassetvaluesusingmulti-criteriaandvaluationmethods
Somecaveatsandhealthwarnings
20 |
CSIROOCEANSANDATMOSPHERE
ThankyouThanksalsotoSydneyCoastalCouncilGroup
andEurobodallaShireCouncilAcknowledgement:Thestudywassupported bytheNSWEnvironmentTrustEnvironmentalResearchProgram,Project2014/RD/0017,andCSIROOceansandAtmosphere