ESSENTIAL DATA FOR ADMISSIONS ADVISERS

August 6, 2010Reuben Ternes, OIRA

OVERVIEW Presentation in 6 Parts

Introduction to OIRA Part I: FTIAC Growth Part II: Recruitment Data Part III: The Importance of Transfer Students Part IV: Comparing OU to National Data Part V: Academic Success Indicators

WHAT DOES OIRA DO? Tracks and projects enrollment Reports to federal agencies (IPEDS) Official record keeper for large amounts of

university data Analyzes policy decisions

i.e. Is it a good policy to encourage students to take 16 credits their first semester, regardless of their ACT score? What will happen to our retention rates if we change our admission requirements?

Reports graduation rates, retention rates, etc.

Gathers and reports on various student surveys.

…and much much more…

OIRA WEBSITE Fastest way to get to the website is from the

OU home page. Mouse over to Faculty and Staff.

Selecting Assessment takes you directly to OIRA home. Lots of potentially useful info on the website:

New student profiles Enrollment data, current and historical Ad hoc reports Retention and Graduation Rate Data NSSE Data Assessment data and links PowerPoint Presentations (including this one)

FTIAC GROWTH

Part I

HISTORICAL FTIACS NUMBERS 1998 - 2010

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

15301813188819051868

21012053221322872340235024662466?

CHALLENGES TO FTIAC GROWTH

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

Projected New Undergraduate (FTIACs) by Year

Goal Pace (25,000 by 2020)Pace Assuming No Changes (Steady State)

We are here.

UNDERSTANDING THE PROJECTIONS There are two major obstacles responsible for

the gap between the 2020 goal and the steady state projections 1). High School Demographics 2). Current Market Share

20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201950,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

NCES Projections of Michigan High School Graduates 2008 - 2019

2009 OU-FTIACS BY COUNTYCounty of Origin % of 2009 FTIAC Cohort

Oakland 41.3%

Macomb 30.3%

Wayne 9.7%

Lapeer 2.9%

Genesee 2.6%

St. Clair 2.2%

Every Where Else 11.0%

MARKET SHARE, 2009 VS. 2004Market Share

County 2009 2004Oakland 16% 14%Macomb 25% 22%Wayne 4% 4%

FTIAC GROWTH: GOOD AND BAD NEWS Bad News for FTIAC Enrollment

High school graduates are down We will need to do more with less

Over 80% of our FTIACs come from only 3 counties Our market share in other counties is low and/or non-

existent. The Good News for FTIAC Enrollment

The decline in projected high school students is slightly less severe in Oakland and Macomb counties (at least for the next few years).

Our market share in both Oakland and Macomb county has increased since 2004.

RECRUITMENT DATA

Part II

HIGH SCHOOLS WITH MOST APPLICANTS

Top 22 Feeder High Schools for Fall 2009, by ApplicationsRank Name Apps Rank Name Apps

1 Eisenhower Senior High School 247 12 Rochester Adams High

School 1342 Adlai E Stevenson High

School 195 13 Avondale Senior High School 1273 Clarkston Senior High

School 191 14 Oak Park High School 1124 Dakota High School 175 15 Chippewa Valley High School 1085 Lake Orion Cmty High

School 174 16 Utica High School 1086 Athens High School 167 17 West Bloomfield High School 1037 Rochester High School 165 18 Oxford High School 938 Troy High School 162 19 Paul K Cousino Sr High

School 929 Stoney Creek High

School 143 20 Fraser High School 8910 Romeo High School 142 21 L Anse Creuse High School N 8611 Henry Ford II High

School 136 22 Notre Dame Preparatory 85

HIGH SCHOOLS WITH HIGHEST YIELDTop 22 High Schools by Yield (enrollees per application),

for Fall 2009 (for HS w/ 30 or more Apps)Rank Name Yield Rank Name Yield

1 Lapeer East High School 0.50 12 Holly Senior High School 0.38

2 Anchor Bay High School 0.46 13 Brandon High School 0.38

3 Bishop Foley High School 0.45 14 Sterling Heights High School 0.38

4 Avondale Senior High School* 0.45 15 Lake Shore Senior High School 0.38

5 Romeo High School* 0.43 16 Rochester High School* 0.37

6 Adlai E Stevenson High School* 0.42 17 Dakota High School* 0.36

7 Oakland Christian School* 0.42 18 Walled Lake Central High Sch 0.35

8 Eisenhower Senior High School* 0.4 19 Lapeer West High School 0.34

9 Waterford Kettering High Sch 0.4 20 Seaholm High School 0.34

10 Lamphere High School 0.4 21 Lahser High School 0.34

11 Paul K Cousino Sr High School* 0.39 22 Utica High School* 0.33

* Represents one of the 22 highest feeder schools (by application)

YIELD BY HS GPA Many variables are correlated with yield (the

probability that an applicant will attend OU). HS GPA and ACT scores come to mind, but there

are lots of other variables too. HS GPA is often thought of as the ‘better’ of

the two predictors, but often they each add important information.

The relationship between HS GPA and yield follows a non-obvious (and non-linear) pattern.

YIELD BY HS GPA FOR FALL 2009

HS GPA

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Yie

ld

SWITCHING FOCUS: THE ROLE OF THE TRANSFER STUDENT

Part III

PART III: TRANSFER DATA Historically, OU has focused much of its

attention towards FTIACs, but transfers make up a large portion of new OU students too. 2466 new FTIACs in 2009 1677 new transfer students in 2009

So far, FTIACs for Fall 2010 are down 4%. Transfers are up 28%. Will these numbers hold? Final numbers won’t be in for some time, but this

represents a huge surge in transfer students so far.

TOTAL NEW STUDENT ENROLLMENT

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

FTIACsTransfersTotal

If current pace con-tinues

WHERE DO OUR TRANSFER STUDENTS COME FROM?Campus Name FA09 New X-fers

Macomb Cmty Coll Center Campus 275Oakland Cmty College 193

OCC - Auburn Hills Campus 116Macomb Cmty Coll South Campus 84

OCC - Orchard Ridge Campus 53OCC - Royal Oak Campus 49

OCC - Highland Lakes Campus 48Central Michigan University 41Michigan State University 40St Clair Co Cmty College 36Henry Ford Cmty College 35

Wayne County Cmty College 34Wayne State University 34

Grand Valley State University 33Schoolcraft College 32

Westrn Michigan University 28

TRANSFER STUDENT PROFILE (FALL 2009) Approximately 66% come from 2-year

colleges while 33% come from 4-year institutions.

Over 50% were under the age of 22. 25% are over the age of 26.

70% were full-time. Most students had a GPA of a 2.5 or higher

from their former institution. Half had a GPA of 3.0 or higher.

SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES: COMPARING OU TO NATIONAL DATA

Part IV

SURVEYS OU has two major student surveys.

CIRP (freshmen only) NSEE (freshmen and seniors)

These surveys give us information about our student body. How many hours they work? How difficult they find courses to be at OU How much money their parents make How often they drink Why they choose OU Etc…

The NSSE data is available on the OIRA webpage. Mostly, we find that OU is similar to other

institutions. However, there are some differences.

IMPORTANT REASONS TO SELECT OU

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2009

010203040506070

Academic reputation Grads get good jobs* Cost Live near home Financial assistance

Perc

ent

THE IMPORTANCE OF KEEPING UP TO DATE WITH POLITICS

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

OUComparison

MARIJUANA SHOULD BE LEGALIZED

1993

1996

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2009

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OUComparison

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DRANK BEER DURING HIGH SCHOOL YEAR

1995

1996

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2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2009

0102030405060

Drank Beer in High School

OUCompar-ison

MORE THAN 15 HOURS PER WEEK WORKING OFF CAMPUS

Class Oakland Selected Peers

First-Year 35% 24%

Seniors 61% 52%

TIME SPENT PREPARING FOR CLASS

2003 2005 2007 20093.103.203.303.403.503.603.703.803.904.004.10

OUPeer

“THE ENVIRONMENT EMPHASIZES SPENDING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF TIME ON ACADEMIC WORK”

2003 2005 2007 20092.90

2.95

3.00

3.05

3.10

3.15

3.20

3.25

OUPeer

ACADEMIC SUCCESS INDICATORS

Part V

% OF FTIAC IN PROBATION END OF FIRST SEMESTER

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

18.6%20.5%

18.2% 17.8% 17.4%16.0%

RETENTION TO SECOND YEAR

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

75.0%

One Year Retention

GRADUATION BY 1ST-TERM CREDITS

19921993199419951996199719981999200020010.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Total12-1314+

6-YEAR GRADUATION RATE BY ACT SCORE

6 YEAR GRADUATION RATE BY HS GPA

FIRST YEAR RETENTION RATE BY ACT SCORE

FIRST YEAR RETENTION BY HS GPA

QUESTIONS What questions do you have for me? What questions do you have for OIRA? What data do you use on a regular basis? What information do you need? What tools do you need to turn your data into

information?