ESPAÑOL · WHO PAHO Region Model updates for October 15, 2020 covid.healthdata.org Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ESPAÑ. OL En los países de la región de las Américas,

WHO PAHO Region Model updates for October 15, 2020

covid.healthdata.org Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

ESPAÑOL

En los países de la región de las Américas, tanto los casos positivos, como las muertes por COVID-19 han disminuido durante en las primeras dos semanas de octubre. Las proyecciones que hace IHME de muertes acumuladas para el 1 de febrero son 955 mil; 2,600 más que las proyectadas hace una semana para la misma fecha. Si la inmunidad colectiva se presentará a un nivel bajo, como el 40% de personas infectadas, para el 1 de febrero aumentarían las muertes a 1.1 millones. El efecto de usar mascarillas faciales representa salvar 116 mil vidas que equivale a 12% de las muertes estimadas para el 1 de febrero de 2021. Situación actual

• Los casos confirmados presentan una tendencia estable en las últimas 4 semanas (Figura 1). • Las muertes diarias han ido disminuyendo hasta llegar a 4,100 por día en la última semana, se observa una ligera

disminución desde mediados de septiembre (Figura 2). Al 12 de octubre, COVID-19 sigue siendo la segunda causa de muerte en la región (Tabla 1).

• Alrededor de 58% de las muertes por COVID19 en la región de las Américas se concentran en población entre 65 y 84 años de edad (Figura 2b).

• La R efectiva calculada para el 1 de octubre – basada en el análisis combinado de casos, hospitalizaciones y muertes – es mayor 1.17 en algunos estados de Canadá (Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec); en Colorado y Kansas en los Estados Unidos y en Oaxaca y Guerrero en México (Figura 3).

• Aunque en la región no se ha abierto una discusión como en EEUU sobre inmunidad colectiva, se observa que Brasil y México más de 18% de la población está infectada. Los tres países con más casos infectados son: Bolivia 25%, Perú 34% y Ecuador 45%. Destaca el estado de la Amazonia en el norte de Brasil con más de la mitad de la población infectada (Figura 4).

• Alrededor de 20% de infecciones por COVID-19 son detectadas, es decir, los casos de COVID-19 notificados por los países solo representan la quinta parte de las infecciones estimadas por el modelo SEIR elaborado en IHME (Figura 5).

• Se estima para la primera semana de octubre Argentina presentará más de 8 muertes por un millón de habitantes al día (Figura 6).

Factores impulsores de las tendencias de transmisión (movilidad, uso de cubrebocas, pruebas y estacionalidad)

• Los mandatos de distanciamiento físico se mantienen como estaban en la última semana. Son muy heterogéneos en los países que componen la región. Solo Ecuador y Honduras mantienen los 7 mandatos estudiados, en contraste con Estados Unidos que no registra ninguno en promedio (Tabla 2 y Figura 7).

• La movilidad de la región es baja en comparación con otras regiones de la OMS. Los países con menor movilidad en la región son: Chile, Perú, Panamá, Costa Rica y Belice. En contraste, el país con mayor movilidad de la región son Estados Unidos, Canadá, México, Brasil, Haití, Honduras, Nicaragua y Colombia similar a enero de 2020 (Figura 8).

• La proporción de personas que salen de su casa usando cubrebocas varía en la región, pero en promedio, es la más alta en el mundo desde el mes de septiembre. En Haití la proporción es menor a 45%; en Canadá, Brasil y Estados Unidos la proporción va de 60 a 69%; Honduras y Uruguay entre 70 y 79% y en el resto de los países la proporción es mayor a 80% (Figuras 9a y 9b).

• En promedio, la región de las Américas realiza 110 pruebas por cada 100,000 habitantes, ubicándose debajo de la región de europea, pero por arriba del resto de las regiones de la OMS. Canadá, Chile y Estados Unidos realizan más de 150 pruebas por 100 mil habitantes (en algunos estados de los EUA se hacían más de 450 pruebas por 100,000 habitantes); le siguen Uruguay, Perú, Surinam, Panamá, Colombia, Costa Rica, Belice y Cuba que hacen entre 50 y 149 pruebas por cien mil; destacan como los más bajo México y Haití con < 10 pruebas por 100 mil habitantes (Figuras 10a y 10b).



• Si se compara el riesgo de enfermarse por neumonía el 1 de febrero con el 1 de agosto, se observa que en el hemisferio norte es mayor en Canadá y Estados Unidos y el riesgo va descendiendo hasta desaparecer en el hemisferio sur. El efecto de la estacionalidad de las infecciones respiratorias las recoge esta variable (Figura 11).

Proyecciones

• Las proyecciones en el escenario de referencia establecen que se acumularán 955 mil muertes por COVID-19 para el primero de febrero de 2021, 2,600 más muertes que la proyección de hace una semana. Esta proyección asume que los países con mortalidad diaria mayor a 8 por 1 millón de habitantes volverán a cerrar su economía por un periodo de seis semanas. Las defunciones por COVID se mantendrán en 2.8 mil al día hasta la mitad de noviembre y volverán a incrementarse a 4 mil al día en enero de 2021. Sin embargo, de mantener la relajación de los mandatos, el peor escenario proyecta alrededor de 8 mil muertes al día. (Figuras 12 y 13).

• Debido al importante incremento de la mortalidad detectado por las proyecciones, son algunos estados de EUA y Canadá los que deberán reimponer mandatos en los meses de noviembre, diciembre y enero. En los países de América Latina no requieren reestablecer mandatos antes del primero de febrero de 2021 (Figura 15).

• Incorporando el uso de cubrebocas a 95% de la población se podrían salvar en la región 116 mil vidas para el 1 de febrero de 2021 (Figura 14).

• Para finales de 2020 se estima que 8 países de la región presentaran más de 24.5% de su población infectada por COVID-19. Entre 24.5 y 30.9% Bolivia, Colombia y Costa Rica; entre 31.0 y 36.9 % México, Perú, Honduras y Panamá; y Ecuador con casi la mitad de su población infectada (Figura 16).

• Para el primero de febrero de 2021 se estima que Canadá presentarán una tasa de mortalidad diaria por COVID-19 superior a 8 por 1 millón de habitantes; y entre 5 y 7 defunciones por un millón están Estados Unidos, Surinam, Venezuela y Cuba (Figura 17).

• Para la primera semana de enero de 2021 se estima que la segunda causa de muerte en la región será COVID 19, superada por la cardiopatía isquémica (Tabla 3).

• Ofrecemos una comparación de nuestros pronósticos con otros modelos que proporcionan actualizaciones periódicas y archivan sus resultados. Al comparar los pronósticos del pasado con lo que ha ocurrido, nuestro modelo tiene el error porcentual medio más bajo para las muertes acumuladas en la región. Como muestra la Figura 18, nuestros pronósticos son marcadamente diferentes. Otros modelos importantes sugieren que la epidemia está llegando a su fin con una disminución de las muertes diarias hasta el final del año. Encontramos una fuerte correlación estadística de la R efectiva en los últimos 6 meses con el patrón semanal de muertes por neumonía visto en cada país o estado. Esta variable de estacionalidad combinada con nuestra predicción de que los mandatos continuarán disminuyendo durante las cuentas de otoño para nuestros pronósticos marcadamente diferentes.

Notas metodológicas

No hay actualizaciones importantes para nuestro modelo esta semana. Continuamos buscando evidencia sobre si la tasa de letalidad por infección (IFR por sus siglas en inglés) ha cambiado durante la pandemia. Hay un claro cambio hacia edades más jóvenes en los casos diagnosticados. Tan solo este cambio, debido a la dependencia de la edad de la IFR, reduciría la IFR para todas las edades, incluso si los tratamientos no hubieran mejorado. Sin embargo, el cambio en la distribución por edades de los casos confirmados puede deberse a la ampliación de la cobertura de pruebas diagnósticas. El análisis subsecuente de los datos sobre el tratamiento clínico individual y su resultado en salud, puede proporcionar una medida más directa de la situación COVID.



IHME desea agradecer calurosamente el apoyo de estos y otros que han hecho posible nuestros esfuerzos de estimación de COVID-19. Gracias.

Para ver todos los recursos de COVID-19 en IHME, visite http://www.healthdata.org/covid.

Preguntas? ¿Peticiones? ¿Realimentación? Comuníquese con nosotros en https://www.healthdata.org/covid/contact-us.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/acknowledgementshttp://www.healthdata.org/covidhttps://www.healthdata.org/covid/contact-ushttps://www.healthdata.org/covid/contact-us



ENGLISH

In the Pan-American region, both positive cases and deaths from COVID-19 have decreased during the first two weeks of October. IHME’s projection of cumulative deaths by February 1 is 955,000; this is 2,600 more than projected a week ago for the same date. If herd immunity occurs at low levels, such as 40% of people infected, by February 1, deaths would increase to 1.1 million. The use of face masks could save 116,000 lives, which is equivalent to 12% of the estimated deaths by February 1, 2021.

Current situation

• Confirmed cases show a stable trend in the last four weeks (Figure 1). • Daily deaths have decreased to 4,100 per day in the last week; a slight decrease is observed since mid-

September (Figure 2). As of October 12, COVID-19 remains the second-leading cause of death in the region (Table 1).

• About 58% of deaths from COVID-19 in the Pan-American region are concentrated in people between 65 and 84 years of age (Figure 2b).

• The effective R calculated for October 1 – based on the combined analysis of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths – is greater than 1.17 in some states in Canada (Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec); in Colorado and Kansas in the United States; and in Oaxaca and Guerrero in Mexico (Figure 3).

• Although there is no discussion across the region as there is in the US about herd immunity, it is noted that Brazil and Mexico have more than 18% of the population infected. The three countries with the most cases are Bolivia (25%), Peru (34%), and Ecuador (45%). The state of Amazonia in northern Brazil stands out, with more than half of the population infected (Figure 4).

• About 20% of COVID-19 infections are detected, that is, the COVID-19 cases reported by countries only represent one-fifth of the infections estimated by the SEIR model developed by IHME (Figure 5).

• It is estimated that by the first week of October, Argentina will have more than 8 deaths per million inhabitants per day (Figure 6).

Trends in key drivers of transmission (mobility, mask use, testing, and seasonality)

• The physical distancing mandates remain as they were in the last week. They are very heterogeneous in the countries that make up the region. Only Ecuador and Honduras maintain the seven mandates studied, in contrast to the United States, which has none on average (Table 2 and Figure 7).

• Mobility in the region is low compared to other WHO regions. The countries with the lowest mobility in the region are Chile, Peru, Panama, Costa Rica, and Belize. In contrast, the countries with the highest mobility in the region are the United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Colombia, similar to levels observed in January 2020 (Figure 8).

• The proportion of people who wear face masks when leaving their homes varies across the region, but on average, it is the highest in the world as of September. In Haiti, the proportion is less than 45%; in Canada, Brazil, and the United States, the proportion ranges from 60% to 69%; in Honduras and Uruguay, between 70% and 79%; and in the rest of the countries, the proportion is greater than 80% (Figures 9a and 9b).

• On average, the Pan-American region conducts 110 tests per 100,000 inhabitants, below the European region but above the rest of the WHO regions. Canada, Chile, and the United States conduct more than 150 tests per 100,000 inhabitants (some US states conduct more than 450 tests per 100,000 inhabitants), followed by Uruguay, Peru, Suriname, Panama, Colombia, Costa Rica, Belize, and Cuba, which conduct between 50 and 149 tests per 100,000 inhabitants.



• Comparing the risk of getting sick from pneumonia on February 1 with that on August 1 shows that in the Northern Hemisphere it is higher in Canada and the United States, and the risk decreases until it disappears in the Southern Hemisphere. The effect of the seasonality of respiratory infections is reflected in this variable (Figure 11).

Projections

• The projections in the baseline scenario show 955,000 cumulative deaths from COVID-19 by February 1, 2021, 2,600 more deaths than the projections a week ago. This projection assumes that countries with daily mortality greater than 8 per 1 million inhabitants will re-impose mandates for a period of six weeks. Deaths from COVID-19 will remain at 2,800 per day until mid-November and will increase again to 4,000 per day in January 2021. However, if mandates continue to be relaxed, the worst-case scenario projects around 8,000 deaths per day (Figures 12 and 13).

• Due to the significant increase in mortality detected by the projections, some US and Canadian states will have to re-impose mandates in the months of November, December, and January. In Latin American countries, mandates do not need to be re-imposed before February 1, 2021 (Figure 15).

• By increasing mask use to 95% of the population, 116,000 lives could be saved in the region by February 1, 2021 (Figure 14).

• By the end of 2020, it is estimated that eight countries in the region will have more than 24.5% of their population infected with COVID-19. Between 24.5% and 30.9% in Bolivia, Colombia, and Costa Rica; between 31.0% and 36.9% in Mexico, Peru, Honduras, and Panama; and nearly 50% in Ecuador (Figure 16).

• By February 1, 2021, it is estimated that Canada will have a daily death rate from COVID-19 of over 8 per 1 million inhabitants; and between 5 and 7 deaths per 1 million in the United States, Suriname, Venezuela, and Cuba (Figure 17).

• By the first week of January 2021, it is estimated that the second-leading cause of death in the region will be COVID-19, surpassed only by ischemic heart disease (Table 3).

• We offer a comparison of our forecasts with other models that provide periodic updates and archive their results. Comparing past forecasts with what has occurred, our model has the lowest average percentage error for cumulative deaths in the region. As Figure 18 shows, our forecasts are markedly different. Other important models suggest that the epidemic is coming to an end, with a decline in daily deaths through the end of the year. We found a strong statistical correlation of effective R in the last six months with the weekly pattern of pneumonia deaths seen in each country or state. This seasonality variable, combined with our prediction that mandates will continue to decline during the fall, accounts for our markedly different forecasts.

Model updates

There are no major updates to our model this week. We continue to search for evidence on whether the infection-fatality rate (IFR) has changed during the pandemic. There is a clear shift to younger ages in diagnosed cases. This shift alone would – because of the age dependence of the IFR – reduce the all-age IFR even if treatments have not improved. However, the shift in the age distribution of confirmed cases may be due to the scale-up in testing capacity. Analysis underway of data on individual clinical treatments and outcomes may provide a more direct measure of whether the IFR by age has changed. If the IFR has declined, this would alter our forecasted death rates; to date, however, we have not been able to find sufficient evidence to support this change to our model.



IHME wishes to warmly acknowledge the support of these and others who have made our COVID-19 estimation efforts possible. Thank you.

For all COVID-19 resources at IHME, visit http://www.healthdata.org/covid.

Questions? Requests? Feedback? Please contact us at https://www.healthdata.org/covid/contact-us.

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Region of the Americas MODEL UPDATES

COVID-19 Results Briefing: the Region o f the Americas

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

October 15, 2020

This briefing contains summary i nformation on t he l atest projections f rom t he IHME model on COVID-19 in the Region of the Americas. The model was run on October 13, 2020.

Model updates

Updates to the model this week include additional data on deaths, cases, and updates on covariates.

covid19.healthdata.org 1 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Region of the Americas CURRENT SITUATION

Current situation

Figure 1. Reported daily COVID-19 cases

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep OctMonth

Cou

nt

Daily cases



Table 1. Ranking of COVID-19 among the leading causes of mortality this week, assuming uniform deathsof non-COVID causes throughout the year

Cause name Weekly deaths RankingIschemic heart disease 22,182 1COVID-19 16,612 2Stroke 10,124 3Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 7,401 4Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer 6,369 5Lower respiratory infections 6,211 6Chronic kidney disease 6,184 7Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias 5,890 8Diabetes mellitus 5,822 9Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases 4,153 10

Figure 2a. Reported daily COVID-19 deaths and smoothed trend estimate. Points shown are reporteddeaths, line and ribbon represent estimate with uncertainty.

0

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8,000

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

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ly d

eath

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Figure 2b. Estimated cumulative deaths by age group

0

5

10


Figure 4. Estimated percent of the population infected with COVID-19 on October 12, 2020

=50.5

Figure 5. Percent of COVID-19 infections detected. This is estimated as the ratio of reported COVID-19cases to estimated COVID-19 infections based on the SEIR disease transmission model.

0

5

10

15

20

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Per

cent

of i

nfec

tions

det

ecte

d

African Region

Region of the Americas

South−East Asia Region

European Region

Eastern Mediterranean Region

Western Pacific Region



Figure 6. Daily COVID-19 death rate per 1 million on October 12, 2020

=8


Region of the Americas CRITICAL DRIVERS

Critical drivers

Table 2. Current mandate implementation

All

gath

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d

All

none

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usin

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Any

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k us

e

Sch

ool c

losu

re

Sta

y ho

me

orde

r

Trav

el li

mits

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)Uruguay

United States of AmericaTrinidad and Tobago

SurinameSaint Vincent and the Grenadines

Saint LuciaSaint Kitts and Nevis

PeruParaguayPanama

NicaraguaMexico

JamaicaHonduras

HaitiGuyana

GuatemalaGrenada

El SalvadorEcuador

Dominican RepublicDominica

CubaCosta Rica

ColombiaChile

CanadaBrazil

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)Belize

BarbadosBahamasArgentina

Antigua and Barbuda

Mandate in place No mandate



Figure 7. Total number of social distancing mandates (including mask use)

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)Uruguay

United States of AmericaTrinidad and Tobago

SurinameSaint Vincent and the Grenadines

Saint LuciaSaint Kitts and Nevis

PeruParaguayPanama

NicaraguaMexico

JamaicaHonduras

HaitiGuyana

GuatemalaGrenada

El SalvadorEcuador

Dominican RepublicDominica

CubaCosta Rica

ColombiaChile

CanadaBrazil

Bolivia (Plurinational State of)Belize

BarbadosBahamasArgentina

Antigua and Barbuda

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

# of mandates

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Mandate imposition timing



Figure 8a. Trend in mobility as measured through smartphone app use compared to January 2020 baseline

−50

−25

0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Per

cent

red

uctio

n fr

om a

vera

ge m

obili

ty

African Region



European Region



Figure 8b. Mobility level as measured through smartphone app use compared to January 2020 baseline(percent) on October 12, 2020

=−10



Figure 9a. Trend in the proportion of the population reporting always wearing a mask when leaving home

0

20

40

60


Per

cent

of p

opul

atio

n

African Region



European Region



Figure 9b. Proportion of the population reporting always wearing a mask when leaving home on October12, 2020

=85



Figure 10a. Trend in COVID-19 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people

0

50

100

150


Test

per

100

,000

pop

ulat

ion

African Region



European Region



Figure 10b. COVID-19 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people on October 08, 2020

=500



Figure 11. Increase in the risk of death due to pneumonia on February 1 compared to August 1

=80%


Region of the Americas PROJECTIONS AND SCENARIOS

Projections and scenarios

We produce three scenarios when projecting COVID-19. The reference scenario is our forecast of what wethink is most likely to happen. We assume that if the daily mortality rate from COVID-19 reaches 8 permillion, social distancing (SD) mandates will be re-imposed. The mandate easing scenario is what wouldhappen if governments continue to ease social distancing mandates with no re-imposition. The universal maskmandate scenario is what would happen if mask use increased immediately to 95% and social distancingmandates were re-imposed at 8 deaths per million.

Figure 12. Cumulative COVID-19 deaths until February 01, 2021 for three scenarios.

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900,000

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90

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb

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umulative deaths per 100,000

Continued SD mandate easing

Reference scenario

Universal mask use

Fig 13. Daily COVID-19 deaths until February 01, 2021 for three scenarios.

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6,000

8,000

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8


Dai

ly d

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aily deaths per 100,000


Reference scenario

Universal mask use



Fig 14. Daily COVID-19 infections until February 01, 2021 for three scenarios.

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600,000

900,000

1,200,000

0

30

60

90


Dai

ly in

fect

ions

Daily infections per 100,000


Reference scenario

Universal mask use



Fig 15. Month of assumed mandate re-implementation. (Month when daily death rate passes 8 per million,when reference scenario model assumes mandates will be re-imposed.)

October

November

December

JanuaryNo mandates before Feb 1



Figure 16. Forecasted percent infected with COVID-19 on February 01, 2021

=50.5

Figure 17. Daily COVID-19 deaths per million forecasted on February 01, 2021 in the reference scenario

=8



Figure 18. Comparison of reference model projections with other COVID modeling groups. For thiscomparison, we are including projections of daily COVID-19 deaths from other modeling groups when avail-able: Delphi from the Massachussets Institute of Technology (Delphi; https://www.covidanalytics.io/home),Imperial College London (Imperial; https://www.covidsim.org), The Los Alamos National Laboratory(LANL; https://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/), the SI-KJalpha model from the University of Southern Cal-ifornia (SIKJalpha; https://github.com/scc-usc/ReCOVER-COVID-19), and Youyang Gu (YYG; https://covid19-projections.com/). Daily deaths from other modeling groups are smoothed to remove inconsistencieswith rounding. Regional values are aggregates from availble locations in that region.

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

Nov Dec Jan FebDate

Dai

ly d

eath

s

Models

IHME

Delphi

Imperial

LANL

SIKJalpha

YYG


https://www.covidanalytics.io/homehttps://www.covidsim.orghttps://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/https://github.com/scc-usc/ReCOVER-COVID-19https://covid19-projections.com/https://covid19-projections.com/


Table 3. Ranking of COVID-19 among the leading causes of mortality in the full year 2020. Deaths fromCOVID-19 are projections of cumulative deaths on Jan 1, 2021 from the reference scenario. Deaths fromother causes are from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 (rounded to the nearest 100).

Cause name Annual deaths RankingIschemic heart disease 1,153,500 1COVID-19 834,525 2Stroke 526,400 3Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 384,900 4Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer 331,200 5Lower respiratory infections 323,000 6Chronic kidney disease 321,600 7Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias 306,300 8Diabetes mellitus 302,700 9Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases 215,900 10

Mask data source: Premise; Facebook Global symptom survey (This research is based on survey resultsfrom University of Maryland Social Data Science Center) and the Facebook United States symptom survey(in collaboration with Carnegie Mellon University); Kaiser Family Foundation; YouGov COVID-19 BehaviourTracker survey.

A note of thanks:

We would like to extend a special thanks to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) for keydata sources; our partners and collaborators in Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, theDominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Honduras, Israel, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Moldova, Panama, Peru,the Philippines, Russia, Serbia, South Korea, Turkey, and Ukraine for their support and expert advice; andto the tireless data collection and collation efforts of individuals and institutions throughout the world.

In addition, we wish to express our gratitude for efforts to collect social distancing policy information inLatin America to University of Miami Institute for Advanced Study of the Americas (Felicia Knaul, MichaelTouchton), with data published here: http://observcovid.miami.edu/; Fundación Mexicana para la Salud(Héctor Arreola-Ornelas) with support from the GDS Services International: Tómatelo a Pecho A.C.; andCentro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Anáhuac (Héctor Arreola-Ornelas); Lab onResearch, Ethics, Aging and Community-Health at Tufts University (REACH Lab) and the University ofMiami Institute for Advanced Study of the Americas (Thalia Porteny).

Further, IHME is grateful to the Microsoft AI for Health program for their support in hosting our COVID-19data visualizations on the Azure Cloud. We would like to also extend a warm thank you to the many otherswho have made our COVID-19 estimation efforts possible.


http://observcovid.miami.edu/

COVID-19 Results Briefing: the Region of the AmericasInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)October 14, 2020

Model updatesCurrent situationCritical driversProjections and scenarios

Documents

ESPAÑOL · WHO PAHO Region Model updates for October 15, 2020 covid.healthdata.org Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ESPAÑ. OL En los países de la región de las Américas,