ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005 Introduction to the ESA Space Weather Pilot Project A. Hilgers, A. Glover, E. Daly Space Environments and Effects

ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005

Introduction to the ESA Space Introduction to the ESA Space Weather Pilot ProjectWeather Pilot Project

A. Hilgers, A. Glover, E. DalySpace Environments and Effects Analysis Section,

ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands

C. de Matos and F. OngaroEUI-A, ESA-HQ, Paris


Historical Background of ESA involvement

• 1996: ESA Round Table on Space Weather.• 1998: FMI report on space weather capabilities in Europe.• 1998: First ESA Space Weather Workshop.• 1999-2001: ESA feasibility study on a Space Weather Programme.• 2000: Setting up of Space Weather Working Team.• 2001: Submission of programme initiative to ESA management board =>Rejected

(Quantification of value of service for sustainability and need more scientific basis).• 2001: Start preparation of ESA-PP, COST724, and other…• 2003: ESA SW pilot-project formally starts.• 2003: COST 724 starts.• 2005: COST 296 starts (follows from COST 271).


Where we stand in Nov 2005 • Overall European harmonisation/coordination: SWWT• Organisation of the scientific community (through COST Organisation of the scientific community (through COST

296, COST724).296, COST724).• Coordinated service investigation/evaluation in Europe -

SWENET (Starts: April 2003 – ends: Mars 2006).• International relations: ISES, CAWSES, COSPAR PSW &

PRB, IHY, ILWS.


Coordinated Service Investigation

• Space Weather European Network (SWENET)Space Weather European Network (SWENET):– Network of 26 service development activities (SDAs): 16

ESA co-funded SDA applications activities began on 1st

April 2003 + 10 independently funded activities.– Common support (portal, service provision, data access), ommon support (portal, service provision, data access),

evaluation method, modelling.evaluation method, modelling.• Independent benefit assessmentIndependent benefit assessment is establishing the economic

and other benefits of the services (Contract with SEA).• Investigation of future sustainable structure for service

provision.


SWENET as a sample for study

• Represents ~5 M€ investment incl. 2 € from ESA GSP.• Co-funding (approx. 3 M€) made available to this project by users or Co-funding (approx. 3 M€) made available to this project by users or

developers from 9 member states or from other ESA programme.developers from 9 member states or from other ESA programme.• Questions to address:

– users (and their requirements)?– current realistic(sustainable) services?– Need for specific space elements?– Value of coordinated approach?– Overall organisation requirements?


Users and user domains(in EUROPE)

• Broad community of users (incl. Broad community of users (incl. military).military).

• About 90% of the pilot project About 90% of the pilot project activities addressed three main types activities addressed three main types of effects which are related to:of effects which are related to:1.1. External geomagnetic field External geomagnetic field

variationvariation2.2. Ionospheric perturbations of Ionospheric perturbations of

radio signal (comms, nav).radio signal (comms, nav).3.3. Direct space environment effects Direct space environment effects

on spacecraft.on spacecraft.• Some SDA’s are general purpose

services with broad class of users (usually solar/indices,…).

Industry

National Agencies

Public & Tourism

Scientific Institutes

Military


External geomagnetism in Europe

• Users: survey, electric power, pipe-line, military.Users: survey, electric power, pipe-line, military.• SW Service: ~? M€; ground based magnetometers + ACE. • 10 Y Market trend: remains of same order.• Need of space measurements:

– may be not for ground effects,– speculative for global scale and/or forecast service,– major need for Solar wind monitoring.

• => Case for a SW monitor?


Ionospheric effects on radio signal in Europe

• Users: HF users (Users: HF users (airlines, military and civilian security airlines, military and civilian security applications) and GPS single frequency (~all) and dual applications) and GPS single frequency (~all) and dual frequency (geological surveying for prospecting, military, off-frequency (geological surveying for prospecting, military, off-shore drilling in very deep sea, airlines for airport approach)shore drilling in very deep sea, airlines for airport approach)..

• SW Service: ~? M€/Y, Ionosonde, dual frequency networks. • 10 Y Market Trend: significant growth (Galileo, +down

stream growth).• Need of space measurements:

– would allow global coverage and (possibly) forecast.• => Case for a LEO constellation?



Direct effects on space systems in Europe • Users: spacecraft designers, operators, downstream users, manned space Users: spacecraft designers, operators, downstream users, manned space

flight.flight.• SW Service: ~? M€/Y; using US NOAA, NASA data. • 10 Y Market Trend: might be significant growth (new techno, manned

space flight).• Need for space measurements:

– major (no serious alternative).

• => Case for monitoring in critical regions?- Very likely.



Scientific monitoring

• Users: All (including scientific communities).Users: All (including scientific communities).• SW Service: ~? M€/Y; using local and world wide resources

(e.g., geomag and solar indices or recurrent features, e.g, CME).

• 10 Y Market Trend: might be significant growth (sw market, new challenges: global change, space pollution, etc…).

• Need for space measurements:– major for L1 and other critical region/components.

• => Case for: SW L1 monitor, CME, EUV, X, Rad Belt,etc… ?


Organisation of the Review/Discussion

• Today:– SWENET infrastructure (P. Beltrami, Eta-max)– Ionospheric effects session (reporter: L. Cander, RAL).– Effects on aircraft and spacecraft (reporter: A. Hilgers, ESA)– Ground effects (reporter: R. Pirjola, FMI & CNS).– Solar monitoring and magnetic indices (reporter: M. Messeroti, TSO).– Cost/benefit analysis study status (T. Woodward, SEA)

• All the week: Scientific sessions and Business meetings (COST, SWWT-TWG)

• Friday: Agency activities – Round table – SWWT meeting.

Documents

ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005 Introduction to the ESA Space Weather Pilot Project A. Hilgers, A. Glover, E. Daly Space Environments and Effects