Ernesto U. SavonaProfessor of Criminology at Università Cattolica,

Milan and Director of TRANSCRIME

www.transcrime.it

CRIME AND DEVELOPMENT

A Complex relationship

Economic and Social Council, United Nations Geneva, 22 July 2012

panel discussion

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STARTING POINT: the three scenarios• United Nations have defined three possible scenario to integrate

security and criminal justice into the post-2015 agenda.

• First and second scenarios are designed to formulate common goals and measures to address specific aspects of crime reduction and good governance.The third scenario envisages a parallel accountability monitoring system based on national goals, targets and indicators.

• According to me, this third scenario is the better tool to focus on the relationship between crime and development, since it could capture the specificities of each country. This is because the relationship between crime, drugs and development varies . Let me concentrate on the relationship between crime and development, since drugs is a variable which enters in this one

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THE COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CRIME AND DEVELOPMENT

SOCIO CULTURAL FACTORS

- Culture of legality

- Levels of corruption

- Rule of law

SOCIO ECONOMIC FACTORS

- Deprivation

- Income inequality

-Market structure and level of productivity

DEVELOPMENT CRIME

ORGANIZED CRIME

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CRIME AND DEVELOPMENT different combinations

If Crime and Development influence each other, it is not automatic that more development produces less

crime. The same is for the reverse relationship: more crime does not automatically produce less development. There are two main variables which, linked to the previous two, give different directions to the relationship: rule of law which means culture of legality, less corruption, more justice etc. and Organized Crime.

When the rule of law lacks and/or Organized Crime grows the relationship between crime and development is distorted. There are many examples….

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THE COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CRIME AND DEVELOPMENT: some examples

Source: Transcrime elaboration on International Maritime Bureau and World Bank data

Rule of Law and Maritime Piracy

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THE COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CRIME AND DEVELOPMENT: some examplesMexico: violence and economic growth

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012405060708090

100110120130140

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

GDP per capita Intentional Homicides

Mile

s d

e p

eso

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Source: Transcrime elaboration on INEGI data

• Mexico represents an example of the complex association between crime and development. The economic growth of the last 15 years corresponds to a dramatic rise in the intentional homicide rates. The motivations of this apparent inconsistency are largely connected with income inequality, corruption, drugs and organized crime. They are all interrelated

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THE COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CRIME AND DEVELOPMENT: some examplesItaly: the influence of the Mafias on the development

Source: Transcrime elaboration on ISTAT and Ministry of Interior data

GDP per capita (EUR) Index of Mafia Presence

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

North-Center SouthItaly

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CRIME AND DEVELOPMENT: some examples

• Organized crime could both caused of and be caused by the development dynamics. One the one hand, the economic backwardness and the lack of institutional control have facilitated the emergence of organized crime. On the other hand, the long-term presence of organized crime has immobilized the development of the legal economy, increasing the economic gap with the North.

• The Italian experience shows that the relationship between crime and development is connected with the type and characteristics of the crime involved and the social background.

Italy: the influence of the Mafias on the development

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ORGANIZED CRIME AS A DETERMINING FACTOR

• From the latest examples, it emerges clearly how the presence of organized crime and its peculiarities are fundamental aspects to be considered in the analysis.

• Therefore, a specific effort for improving the knowledge and the data sharing and collection on this topic should be a fundamental part of the post-2015 development agenda.

• In particular, the implementation of dedicated methodologies and tools for measuring and revealing the impacts that organized crime has on the social and economic fabric of a country should be supported

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ANALYZING THE CRIMINAL OPPORTUNITIES

• Post-2015 development agenda should enlarge its focus beyond the analysis of the extent of crime or of the criminal justice effectiveness.

• Closer attention should be paid to the analysis of the criminal opportunity structure that could enable the specific criminality or could undermine the efficacy and efficiency of the adopted policies.

• As an example, the analysis of the dynamics and characteristics of the illicit markets in a country, and the structural, legal and cultural features that could facilitate them are relevant information for understanding their impact on the social development and on the economic growth. This knowledge is also fundamental for orienting and implementing more focused and effective policies.

Ernesto U. SavonaProfessor of Criminology at Università Cattolica,

Milan and Director of TRANSCRIME

www.transcrime.it

CRIME AND DEVELOPMENTA Complex relationship

Economic and Social Council, United Nations Geneva, 22 July 2012

panel discussion