Trend Letter: A report on the forces transforming the economy, business, technology, society and the world

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14

Trend Letter Editor: What are

some of the obstacles to futuristic

thinking?

Eric Garland: The problem is

not that people are lacking informa-

tion. We all wake up each day with a

6,000-pound meatball of informa-

tion in front of us. Most people turn

to the media to try to make sense of

things. However, with a 24/7 news

cycle, many news outlets simply are

trying to keep viewers’ a t t e n t i o n

until the next advertisement. So they

use sex, death and calamity stories

or random stories about fads that are

of little utility to someone who

wants to invest or make a significant

business decision.

TL: Is there a simple and reli-

able way to determine when a

trend is more than a passing fad?

G a r l a n d : The difference is

numbers and basic analysis. Not

everyone is going to be a strategic

intelligence analyst, but most people

can learn how to do basic analysis of

social trends, demographics and

technology trends and then come to

their own conclusions. Most mass

media outlets are not helping the

big and important. The Internet is

big; ball bearings are important.” I

should amend that to: The iPhone is

big; ball bearings are still important.

We can live without the iPhone, but

we can’t live without certain indus-

trial equipment.

TL: Please give us an example

of a current trend, and tell us how

you are tracking it for future

implications.

Garland: Much of what I do is

to get to the root of the issue and

look at the unsexy stuff that forms

the basis of economics—the type of

information that is not reportable by

most media. For example, we are

looking at a report on the future of

urbanization. As of three months

ago, the majority of people live in

cities for the first time in 20,000

years.

So what are the implications of

that? There will be demand for

sewage systems, water infrastructure

and transportation. We are going to

be living on top of each other, so

soundproofing may be an increasing

need. Although there is a lot of talk

about iPhones and the Prius, there

are huge movements right now in

c o p p e r, rebar, concrete, steel and

iron. The demand for metal has

become so intense in part because of

the huge growth in building Chinese

cities. In fact, people are stealing

Eric Garland is the author of Future Inc., published by AMACOM. He is

a professional futurist and has provided insight in areas such as agriculture,

energy, nanotechnology, health care and information technology. His clients

include General Motors, Coca-Cola, Nestlé, Siemens, Eli Lilly and several

government agencies.

Look beyond the iPodO v e rcome media hype to discover the real trends that

influence business

business investor. For example, in

the chapter in my book called

“Analyzing Trends: Real Change vs.

Media Hype,” I point out that the hot

trend in the summer of 2001 was the

threat of shark attacks. Every few

days there was a story about a shark

attack. The immediate conclusion

would be that shark attacks are esca-

lating, except for one problem: Shark

attacks were down that year and for

the third year in a row. However,

reporting of shark attacks was up.

In 1995, Peter Drucker said: “Do

not confuse the difference between Continued on Page 15

Spotlight Interview With Eric Garland

“We all

wake up each

day with a

6,000-pound

meatball of

information in

front of us.”

April 2008

2807 N. Parham Road • Suite 200 • Richmond, VA 23294 • (800)791-8699 or (570)567-1982 • Fax: (212)918-1568 • www. b r i e f i n g s . c o m

Trend Letter: A report on the forces transforming the economy, business, technology, society and the world 15

manhole covers and breaking into

old buildings to rip out copper

wiring to sell them for scrap metal.

TL: How does someone begin

the process of predicting future

trends?

Garland: The first steps are to

organize your thinking and to under-

stand the system you play in. When

you look for trends, there is a lot of

information on any single topic. For

example, if you sign up for Google

News updates, you are likely to

receive many messages each day.

Although this type of service is free,

consider whether you can realistically

sift through and interpret a deluge of

information.

L a rge organizations have people

whose jobs are to track trends.

H o w e v e r, for small businesses that

cannot hire a futurist or pay someone

full time to track trends, I suggest set-

ting aside five or 10 minutes a week to

do trend research. It is about changing

the way you think of things and

changing your culture. You are always

going to be trying to hit a moving targ e t .

A director of business intelligence

recently told me that there is no such

thing as right intelligence and good

decisions anymore. Instead, you must

track a moving marketplace with vig-

ilance. A meeting once a year to dis-

cuss trends and changes won’t cut it

a n y m o r e .

Start a blog or a wiki and share

information with others in your

industry, but, most important, con-

sider the meaning of the information

collected. Whittle it down to a few

scenarios and consider what your

competitors will do with the same

information. That analysis should

lead to a few decisions.

T L : Although you mention

many important future trends in

your book, please discuss one and

its impact on U.S. businesses and

the economy.

G a r l a n d : One that comes to

mind is the upcoming talent crisis.

As the baby boomers prepare for

retirement, America is poised to lose

many experts in a wide variety of

industries. For example, Lockheed

will lose two-thirds of its engineers

in the next six years. The lack of

experienced workers could be so

damaging to organizations that I

suggest investors determine whether

every business that they own stock in

has a succession plan. The businesses

that are planning for a shortage of

workers are the ones to invest in.

T L : Is it easier for small org a n-

izations to react to future tre n d s

than it is for large org a n i z a t i o n s ?

G a r l a n d : Dinosaurs don’t do well

in terms of evolution. A good example

is the pharmaceutical industry. In

the late 1990s and early 2000s, drug

manufacturers were acquiring other

pharmaceutical businesses with the

goal of developing huge research and

development operations that would

crank out new products. It didn’t hap-

pen. The organizations underperformed.

In the end, the industry’s innovation

came from small shops in niche markets.

Innovation usually comes from

the margins. Many people think huge

organizations have the upper hand in

creating new technologies, but large

outfits generally buy innovation

from small ones. An organization

can have deep pockets, but in gen-

eral, a bureaucratic structure works

against it.

iPod (continued from Page 14)

April 2008

Society• Demography

• Family life

• Public health

• Religion

Technology

• Biotechnology

• Chemistry and materials science

• Information technology

• Manufacturing

• Nanotechnology

Ecology

• Global warming

• Supplies of clean water

• Topsoil and agricultural systems

• Air quality

Economics• Globalization of commerce and

labor

• Poverty and the rich/poor gap

• Inflation

• Currency fluctuations

Politics

• International governing bodies

• Wars and regional conflicts

• Government regulations andagency oversight

• Legislative trends, new bills

• Lawsuits and litigiousness

The STEEP method of futuristic thinking

Futurists use the STEEP method to explore possible impact areas for a c e rtain topic, product or trend. STEEP stands for trends in Society, Te c h n o l o g y,Ecology, Economics and Politics.

Source:Future Inc., Eric Garland, AMACOM, www.amacombooks.org.