Eric ChristensenNational Hurricane Center

Gridded Marine ForecastsStatus as of Oct 2009

What are gridded marine forecasts?… and how will they be used?

• Geospatial database of integrated marine weather elements on a high resolution through space and time (12.5 km spatial resolution, 6 hour temporal resolution out five days)• Can be coupled with private sector software/communications systems. Useful for ship routing, oil rigs, commercial fishing, cruise ships, etc.• Can result in more efficient forecast operation with more consistent, higher quality products.

A reminder why gridded forecasts matter…

The following was written by Chris Parker for the mariner magazine “Ocean Voyager” in 2008:

“Any good forecast offers sufficient temporal and spatial resolution (frequent and closely spaced forecast points), and detail and specificity so you can make good tactical decisions. In my opinion, weather-fax type charts and forecasts prepared for consumption by the general public lack many of these attributes.”

The rest of the article is about how to use grids from direct model output…OUCH!!

Current Setup

Satellite, data, models, etc.

Offshore Forecast Text

High Seas Forecasts Text

Wind Wave GraphicsSurface Prog GraphicsWave Period GraphicsHigh Wind Graphic

Text and graphics only - no gridded database

• No built-in consistency between forecast elements• No built-in consistency between forecast products• No built-in method to incorporate the NHC tropical cyclone forecast• No easy way to coordinate details with OPC and WFOs• Often labor intensive• No gridded database

Satellite, data, models, etc.

Offshore Forecast Text(via GFE text formatter)

Polygon-based High Seas Forecast(via N-AWIPS or IC4D)

High Wind Graphic

Wind Wave, Surface Prog and Wave Period Graphics (via N-AWIPS)

GFE Gridded Database

Model Data

Wavewatch Model1) Value-added Wind Grids into Wavewatch

2) Value-added Wave Grids back into GFE Database

• Built-in consistency between forecast elements - Coupled winds and seas = higher quality forecast • Built-in consistency between forecast products• Built-in method to incorporate the NHC tropical cyclone forecast• Inter-Site Coordination: easy to coordinate with OPC and WFOs• More efficient – trims a couple of hours off workload per shift

…and it includes a gridded database

Proposed TAFB Setup

Marine Verifcation (via GFE formatter)NAVTEX (via GFE formatter)

2009 Accomplishments (special thanks to Ariel Cohen)

• NetCDF to GEMPAK - allows us to populate in NMAP with our own grids developed in GFE (tool developed by Chris Lauer)

• MSLP Grids

• Cohen Wind Tool (derives wind from MSLP), Gap Wind Tool

• Hazard Grid Product

• GFS 35, GFS 55, ECMWF, UKMET, WNA, ENP

• Inter-Site Coordination Tool

• TCM Tool

• English Text Formatter (started on Spanish and French)

• NAVTEX Formatter

• Staff Training

• Polygon-based High Seas Formatter (in progress)

Satellite, data, models, etc.

Offshore Forecast Text(via GFE text formatter)

Polygon-based High Seas Forecast(via N-AWIPS or IC4D)

High Wind Graphic

GFE Gridded Database

Model DataWavewatch Model1) Value-added

Wind Grids into Wavewatch

2) Value-added Wave Grids back into GFE Database

• Built-in consistency between forecast elements - Coupled winds and seas = higher quality forecast • Built-in consistency between forecast products• Built-in method to incorporate the NHC tropical cyclone forecast• Inter-Site Coordination: easy to coordinate with OPC and WFOs• More efficient – trims a couple of hours off workload per shift

…and it includes a gridded database

Proposed TAFB Setup

Marine Verifcation (via GFE formatter)NAVTEX (via GFE formatter)

DONE

DONE

DONE

ALMOSTDONE

???DONE

Wind Wave, Surface Prog and Wave Period Graphics (via N-AWIPS)

Next major evolutions:

Short Term •“VOBRA” Formatter (if needed) for USCG Broadcast• Approval to change Offshore Zone Configurations (Oct 2010) • GFE Synergy with other offices (including ISC)• Outreach

Longer Term • Formal Adoption of Polygon-Based High Seas Product• Operational Integration of Wind Grids into Wavewatch• Unveil the Gridded Database – as part of NDFD?• International Partnerships?• AWIPS 2 challenges/opportunities