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Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar – Apr’ 2019

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Page 1: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Equity & Debt Strategy

Mid Mar – Apr’ 2019

Page 2: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Equity Market Update &

Equity MF Strategy

Page 3: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Confidential | 3

Nifty ended the month flat (-0.36%) while Midcaps fell by 1.09% in a month marked by geopolitical tension

16,000

16,200

16,400

16,600

16,800

17,000

10,500

10,600

10,700

10,800

10,900

11,000

11,100

31-Jan-19 06-Feb-19 12-Feb-19 18-Feb-19 24-Feb-19

NIFTY Index Nsemcap index

Markets

reacted

positively

to Union

Budget

Markets kept

nervous after

terror attacks in

PulwamaRBI cuts

repo rate

by 25 bps

Increase in

geopolitical

tensions after

airstrikes by IAF

Buoyed by the Union budget, Nifty touched 11,000; shedding gains

due to fears of escalation in conflicts between India and Pakistan

Large cap funds have outperformed in the last one year while multi-

cap funds were not far behind

Auto index corrected sharply due to weak volumes; IT sector

continued outperformance buoyed by strong Q3 results

Source: Bloomberg, KIE, AMFI

8.3%

-5.6%

-3.7%

-9.2%

-0.1%

0.4%

-9.7%

0.2%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Trump

announced

extension in

US-China trade

talk deadline

Performance shown for the period of 31 Dec ’18 – 28 Feb ’19

Unlike last year, Nifty 50 underperformed peers till end of February

-0.6%

8.8%

17.9%

8.8%10.8%

9.1%11.1%

6.8%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Nifty 50 MSCI EM Shanghai Brazil Hongkong Germany US Japan

Performance shown for the period of 31 Dec ’18 – 28 Feb ’19

-25.00 -20.00 -15.00 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00

1 Month

6 Month

1 Year Multi Cap

Small Cap

Mid Cap

Large Cap

%

Page 4: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Confidential | 4

2039

-1931

2018

-943-1427

-377

208

-278-1314

-3752

868476

-75

2249

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19

Broad markets seeing sharp recovery since late February with FPIs allocating money to Emerging markets including India

FII flows turned positive in February on the back of Dovish comments by major Global Central Banks

Source: Bloomberg, KIE, AMFI

USD Mn

Equity mutual fund net inflows fall to lowest in two years on the back of elevated redemptions

INR Cr

Note: Amount excludes Arbitrage Funds, assumes 65% equity flow from Balanced

13,446 13,083

10,6239,639 10,085

11,647

15,779

10,188

17,513

6,260

9,656

6,690 7,304 7,554 7,554 7,658 7,727 7,985 7,985 8,022 8,064 8,095

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19

Net Equity Inflows SIPETF inflows include CPSE ETF flows on public offer

ETF inflows include INR 3,500 Bharat 22 ETF public issue

Page 5: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Confidential | 5

Global Central Banks signal renewed measures to ease liquidity amidst moderating global growth

As of 14th March 2019Source: Bloomberg, IMF, CLSA

IMF projects world output to slow down in 2019 revising its estimates by 0.2% downwards from its earlier projections

INR appreciated sharply due to foreign inflows, while crude inched higher on hopes of positive US - China negotiations and Production cuts

74.215

69.3586.29

67.23

50

60

70

80

90

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

Feb 18 Apr 18 Jun 18 Aug 18 Oct 18 Dec 18 Feb 19

USDINR Brent Crude ($)

US, EU and Japan’s Central Banks turned dovish also signalling to inject liquidity in coming times

2500

3500

4500

5500

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

6,000,000

Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16Sep 16 Jan 17 May 17Sep 17 Jan 18 May 18Sep 18 Jan 19

Fed Assets ($ Bn) Japan Assets(*10 JPY Bn)ECB Assets(Eur Bn)

3.5

2.5

1.3 1.11.5

7.5

6.2

2.5

0

2

4

6

8

WorldOutput

US Germany Japan UK India China Brazil

2018 Estimates 2019 Projections

2020 Projections

US FED Assets

BOJ Assets

ECB

Assets

2.42.1

2.82.4

2.1 2.11.6 1.6

1.3 1.20.6

2.4 2.2 2.11.8 1.7 1.6

1.2 1.1 0.90.6

0.00.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Spai

n

Fin

lan

d

Au

stri

a

Net

her

lan

ds

Po

rtu

gal

Gre

ece

Be

lgiu

m

Euro

zon

e

Fran

ce

Ger

man

y

Ital

y

Q3CY18 Q4CY18

ECB pivoted on unwinding bond buying after growth moderated; renewed focus on easing

% Real GDP Growth (YoY)

Page 6: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Confidential | 6

Six companies had more than 90% of their promoter holdings pledged in the BSE-500 Index

As of 14th March 2019 Source: Bloomberg, CLSA, RBI, BNP Paribas, KIE

Domestic Highlights

Passenger vehicle sales continued to remain under pressure with increase in ownership costs hurting demand for two wheelers

PMI Index recorded its highest levels for atleast last 12 months signalling healthy expansion

PMI Index

Select large cap consumer staples contribute to the high PE of consumption basket; gap widening from rest of consumer universe

52.1

51.0

51.651.2

53.1

52.3

51.7

52.2

53.1

54.0

53.2

53.954.3

50

51

52

53

54

55

Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19

BEST 12m forward PE 12m trailing PE

Large Cap Consumer Staples Other Consumer Universe

-24.2% -34.0% -39.9%

-3.7% -33.5%-42.0%

1.6

-3.4-0.4 -1.9 -1.11

17.2

7.1

-2.2-5.2 -4.2

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19

Passenger vehicle (% YoY) Two wheeler (% YoY)

26 25 24 24 24 24

16

13 1214 13 12

4 3

7 7 810

6 64 5 6 6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

25-50%

50-75%

75-90%

>90%

%

Page 7: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Confidential | 7

Earnings and Valuation

Midcaps saw a rebound in later half of month resulting in forward PE discount with Nifty 50 reducing by 100bps from last month to 10%

Earning estimates have been revised downward after Q3FY19 results We expect 17% Nifty 50 Earnings growth for FY19 and FY20

Source: Bloomberg, KIE * Based on KIE Estimates on free float basis.As of 14th March 2019

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

Mar 16 Sep 16 Mar 17 Sep 17 Mar 18 Sep 18 Mar 19

12m Forward PE of Mid Cap over Large Cap

Nifty Mid cap

Nifty 50 10% Discount

466497

641

751

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021

Est. EPS

+7%+29%

+17%

Despite recent correction, India still trades at a premium as compared to other emerging market peers

13.410.2

9.28.9

12.7 11.0 12.5

26.6*

10.80 10.909.80

13.708.70

14.5010.60

17.20

0.005.00

10.0015.0020.0025.0030.00

Earnings Growth (%) (2019E) P/E (X) (2019E)

400.00

450.00

500.00

550.00

600.00

650.00

700.00

Apr 15 Aug 15Dec 15Apr 16 Aug 16Dec 16Apr 17 Aug 17Dec 17Apr 18 Aug 18Dec 18

FY2019 FY2018 FY2017

*India Earnings growth is for CY2019

Page 8: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Confidential | 8

Equity Deployment Strategy10% underweight on equities to hold in cash, 90% to be deployed in staggered manner

9,936

10,078

10,22010,362

10,50410,646

10,788

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

Mar '19 Apr '19 May '19 Jun '19 Jul '19 Aug '19 Sep '19

Nifty at 1-Yr FwdPE 17x

Nifty at1-Yr FwdPE 15.5x

Current Nifty level

13.1% Downside(Immediate)

3.6% Upside (6 Months)

Equity allocation of INR 100 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Total

• Staggered deployment of INR 90• Hold INR 10 in cash; deployment basis market level & outlook

22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 90.00

Risk-Reward ratio unfavourable at current Nifty level, however recent rally in market over upcoming general elections and global events, has shown positive developments in global liquidity and improved general sentiment, we have therefore changed our stance to “10% Underweight” from previous

20%

Source: Bloomberg

Page 9: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Confidential | 9

India Equities: Valuations & Strategy – Change in stance to 10% Underweight

Nifty ended the month flat (-0.36%) while Midcaps fell by 1.09% in a month marked by geopolitical tension. Central banks acrossmajor countries have started to acknowledge risk of slowdown and indicated / announced measures for the same. This has causedglobal liquidity to ease off and money has started to flow in emerging markets, leading to a global rally since the start of the year.

However, it was different for India upto end of February given our premium over other EMs, tensions with Pakistan and upcominggeneral elections. This changed towards the end of February, with market participants now pricing-in a higher probability ofcurrent regime continuing. FPI flows (CYTD19) in Indian Equity markets from USD -0.4 bn in February end, now stand at USD 4.7bn.

General elections, global growth concerns, US-China trade negotiations and Brexit outcome are key events which continue todrive markets in the short term. Therefore we have changed our stance from 20% underweight to a “10% Underweight” onequities. For fresh corpus, we recommend staggering 90% deployment in next 4 months while keeping 10% as dry powder fordeploying opportunistically.

Mutual Funds: As domestic liquidity continues to drive markets, we advise new investments to be staggered in Mutual Funds viaSIPs/STPs.Recommended allocation within equity mutual funds is as under:

• 50% Large Cap allocation

• 50% Multi Cap allocation (such funds currently have a bias toward large cap)

• 5%-10% Mid Cap allocation (only for Moderate, Growth and Aggressive risk profiles)

• For investors who want equity exposure but have low appetite for volatility, they can take equity exposure throughAggressive Hybrid Funds. Such funds have around 25% to 30% of their portfolio into Debt instruments which providescushion to the portfolio return during market volatility.

Source: EPS Estimates by KIE

Page 10: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Confidential | 10

Recommended Large Cap, Multi Cap & Balanced Fund Performances

Source: MFI ExplorerReturns are CAGR as on Mar 25, 2019 and for Regular Plans with Growth option. Corpus size is as on Feb, 2019.

Scheme Name Corpus (In crs.) 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Investor Suitability

Large Cap Funds

Aditya Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund 20,664 7.06 12.60 14.24 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Axis Bluechip Fund 4,221 14.12 14.90 14.34 All Risk Profiles except Secure

HDFC Top 100 Fund 15,163 15.80 16.76 14.76 All Risk Profiles except Secure

ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund 20,101 8.63 14.86 14.30 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Mirae Asset India Equity Fund 10,560 12.62 17.42 18.28 All Risk Profiles except Secure

UTI Nifty Next 50 Index Fund 320 - - - All Risk Profiles except Secure

Large & Mid Cap Funds

IDFC Core Equity Fund 2,801 2.05 14.20 13.28 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Invesco India Growth Opportunities Fund 1,115 7.42 15.56 15.83 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Multi Cap Funds (Multi Cap/ Value/ Focused/ Dividend Yield/ Contra)

Axis Focused 25 Fund 6,762 7.23 16.54 16.18 All Risk Profiles except Secure

HDFC Equity Fund 20,465 13.61 16.74 15.45 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Kotak Standard Multicap Fund 21,682 10.35 16.27 18.47 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Mid & Small Cap Funds (Mid Cap/Small Cap)

HDFC Small Cap Fund 6,312 -1.11 19.81 19.41 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Kotak Emerging Equity Scheme 3,535 -1.52 14.87 22.52 All Risk Profiles except Secure

L&T Midcap Fund 3,733 -4.14 16.77 22.34 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Thematic/Sectoral Funds

Sundaram Rural and Consumption Fund 2,328 1.00 16.58 18.43 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Sundaram Services Fund 1,084 - - - All Risk Profiles except Secure

Aggressive Hybrid Funds

Aditya Birla Sun Life Equity Hybrid '95 13,141 2.96 10.65 14.06 All Risk Profiles except Secure

L&T Hybrid Equity Fund 9,446 1.11 10.05 14.46 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Reliance Equity Hybrid Fund 12,283 1.94 11.12 14.31 All Risk Profiles except Secure

SBI Equity Hybrid Fund 27,907 8.55 11.87 14.99 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Balanced Advantage Funds (Balanced Advantage OR Dynamic Asset Allocation)

ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund 28,499 6.55 11.00 12.07 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Kotak Balanced Advantage Fund 2,525 - - - All Risk Profiles except Secure

Indices

Nifty 13.49 13.71 11.49

Page 11: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Debt Market Update &

Debt MF Strategy

Page 12: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Confidential | 12

Indicators

Policy Expectation

• Policy rate currently stands at 6.25% with the policystance changed to “Neutral” from “Calibrated tightening”

• With inflation continuing to ease and moderation ingrowth, we expect another rate cut in next policy (April2019).

Inflation

• CPI inflation continued to be muted; February CPI at 2.57%.• RBI estimates 4QFY19 inflation at 2.8%, with further

downward revision for 1HFY20 to 3.2-3.4% from 3.8-4.2% earlier

• Risks remain broadly balanced as food inflation expected to remain benign in medium term

Corporate and G-Sec Benchmark Yield• G-Sec yields remain range bound (7.50-7.60%) despite

rate cut• Expect this to continue till March 31

Liquidity• Liquidity continues to be scarce however RBI has continued

to infuse liquidity• RBI has completed Rs. 25k cr of OMO in first half of March

INR• RBI announced Rs. 35k cr USD/INR swap with banks over 3

year; infusing long term INR liquidity in banking system• Year end export activity & continuing FPI flows to provide

fillip by March end. Expect INR to trade in the range of 68 – 72 in Q4 FY19

G-Sec Supply• RBI has done OMO of Rs. 305,500 cr. this year, with Rs.

25,000 cr completed in first half of March• Gross G-sec supply of Rs. 7.1L cr in FY20 is at least Rs.

50k cr higher than expectations. • Expected state loans supply of ~Rs. 5.5L cr likely to

keep supply-demand dynamics unfavorable

Debt Market: Key Variables

Source: Bloomberg, KIE

Global Trends• US 10 Year yields at ~2.63% with US Fed’s revision in

narrative to taper rate trajectory and willingness to reconsider shrinking balance sheet

• Brent has rallied to ~67/bbl with crisis in Venezuela, output cuts by OPEC and positive US-China trade talks helping reduce growth concerns

• China & ECB announced liquidity measures amidst slowing growth

Fiscal Policy• Fiscal risks continue with upward revision in target to 3.4%

for FY19 and FY20

Page 13: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Confidential | 13

US Fed revised rate trajectory signalling relook at unwinding; China continued to infuse liquidity over slowing growth

3500

3700

3900

4100

4300

4500

4700

4900

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 1

7

May

17

Jun

17

Jul 1

7

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Oct

17

No

v 1

7

De

c 17

Jan

18

Feb

18

Mar

18

Ap

r 1

8

May

18

Jun

18

Jul 1

8

Au

g 1

8

Sep

18

Oct

18

No

v 1

8

De

c 18

Jan

19

Feb

19

Mar

19

3,900,000

4,000,000

4,100,000

4,200,000

4,300,000

4,400,000

4,500,000

4,600,000

4,700,000

US Fed Balance Sheet ($ Mn)

ECB Balance Sheet (EUR Bn)

Fed signaled adjusting balance sheet unwinding; ECB bond

buying slowed but new measures announced to maintain liquidity

Note: As of 13th March 2019, Source: Bloomberg, AMFI, CCIL, RBI, BSE

Jun16

Aug16

Oct16

Dec16

Feb17

Apr17

Jun17

Aug17

Oct17

Dec17

Feb18

Apr18

Jun18

Aug18

Oct18

Dec18

Feb19

12

13

14

15

16

17

18 China CRR %

China has cut banks’ reserve requirement rate 5 times in current

fiscal to infuse liquidity & drive growth

%

2.38

3.13

3.38

2.38

2.88

3.13

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

3.20

3.40

2018 Projections 2019 Projections 2020 Projections

% Y

ield

Sep '18 FOMC Meeting

US Fed revised stance on rate trajectory for 2019

-804

-6,745

22,987

-6,529

7,560

CYTD2019CY2018CY2017CY2016CY2015

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

US

D M

illi

on

FII outflows continued from Indian debt markets in CYTD19

Page 14: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Confidential | 14

GDP growth moderated amidst continuing fiscal concerns; liquidity concerns eased with RBI’s continued OMO infusion

2.57

5.29

-0.07

Feb18

Mar18

Apr18

May18

Jun18

Jul 18 Aug18

Sep18

Oct18

Nov18

Dec18

Jan19

Feb19

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00 CPI (YoY%) Core Inflation Food Inflation

Inflation has continued to soften due to low food inflation;

core inflation has remained stubborn

Note: As of 12th March 2019, Source: Bloomberg, PTI

6.55

6.96

8.02

7.747.69

Dec 18Sep 18Jun 18Mar 18Dec 17

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50 GDP (% YoY)

India’s GDP growth moderated to 6.55% in Q3FY19

-453.65

-2000

-1000

0

1000

8-Feb 18-Feb 28-Feb 10-Mar

Am

ou

nt

in R

s. B

n

Liquidity concerns have reduced with RBI continuing OMO

aggressively

972.47

121.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Apr 18 May18

Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug18

Sep18

Oct 18 Nov18

Dec18

Jan 19 Feb19

900

920

940

960

980

1000

1020

1040

GST Collections (Rs Bn)

Fiscal deficit % of target

Fiscal concerns persist with GST collections falling below 1L

Cr

Rs bn%

Page 15: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Confidential | 15Note: As of 12th March 2019, Source: Bloomberg, RBI

8.25

8.09

7.51

Mar 19Feb 19Jan 19

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.501 Yr CP 3 Yr AAA PSU 10 Yr G-Sec

Rates have softened in shorter end of the yield curve over

expectations of rate cut

G-sec Yield curve steepening as RBI eased liquidity concerns & expectations of further rate cut lead to rally in shorter end

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

8.00

8.50

3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y

% Y

ield

G-Sec Yield (Current)

G-Sec Yield 3M Prior

G-sec Yield curve steepening with rally in shorter tenure;

fiscal risks keeping longer tenure range bound

10,000

20,000 20,000

36,000

52,000 50,000 50,000

37,500

25,000

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

May-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19(1st Half)

RBI aggressively infused liquidity post September with Rs. 3.05

lac cr OMO in FY19

Rs cr

55,296

136,135

(148,906)

58,637

(24,509)(37,933)(6,457) (3,401)

1,991

(4,363)

Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

INR

Cro

res

Liquid Others (Income & Gilt)

Flows to Debt funds have been muted in the post IL&FS

period

Page 16: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Confidential | 16

Debt Funds Performance – Last 1 YearSharp recovery in Gilt and Dynamic fund returns with rally in G-sec yields

6.8

7

6.9

5

6.8

5

5.5

9 6.6

1

7.8

7

L IQUID FUNDS ULTRA SHORT/LOW DURATION

FUNDS

SHORT TERM FUNDS

MEDIUM AND CREDIT RISK

FUNDS

DYNAMIC FUNDS

GILT FUNDS

PERFORMANCE COMPARISON

Note: As of 12th March 2019, Source: MFI

Page 17: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Confidential | 17

17

Tenors G-Sec AAA - PSU AAA- Corp AA+ AA AA- A+

3M 6.11 7.61 7.40 7.78 8.02 8.25 8.70

6M 6.33 7.72 7.52 7.90 8.14 8.37 8.82

1Y 6.55 7.88 8.04 8.43 8.67 8.48 8.93

3Y 6.86 7.91 8.23 8.55 8.77 8.55 9.00

5Y 7.04 8.22 8.52 8.78 9.04 8.75 9.20

7Y 7.35 8.49 8.65 8.93 9.17 9.06 9.51

10Y 7.37 8.59 8.88 9.03 9.26 9.12 9.57

15Y 7.79 8.50 9.17 9.14 9.37 9.30 9.75

Credit SpreadsThe current spreads in high quality (AAA) upto 5 year segment is attractive

Note: As of 13th March 2019, Source: Bloomberg

Page 18: Equity & Debt Strategy - Kotak Mahindra Bank · 2020. 7. 22. · Equity & Debt Strategy Mid Mar –Apr’ 2019. Equity Market Update & Equity MF Strategy. Confidential | 3 Nifty ended

Confidential | 18

AAA bonds trading at attractive spreads, maintain overweight on short/medium term strategies

7.73

8.20

6.25

Apr 18May 18Jun 18Jul 18Aug 18Sep 18Oct 18Nov 18Dec 18Dec 18Jan 19Mar 19

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00 3M CP Yield 12M CP Yield Repo Rate

Shorter tenure CPs have rallied over expectation of another rate

cut

Note: As of 13th March 2019, Source: Bloomberg

8.25

6.88

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

3Y AAA PSU Bond Yield

3Y G-sec Yield

AAA Bonds yields in 3-Year segment trading at attractive

spreads on G-sec

8.57

6.30

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.0010Y AAA PSU Bond Yield

10Y Tax Free

10Y AAA bonds spreads over tax free yields; consider replacing

tax free allocation for uptick in yield

8.33

6.25

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00 5 Yr AAA PSU Repo Rate

5-Year PSU Bonds v. Repo Rate spread currently

at 208 bps v. average of 143 bps

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Confidential | 19

India Fixed Income: Strategy

The recent policy is suggesting scope for another rate cut in next policy. We expect another rate cut of 25 bps in the April policy. We maintain our call for cumulative 50 bps of rate cut in CY19.

We reiterate that the current environment calls for a “caution” in credit space. Therefore we recommend no allocation to “Credit Funds” and predominate allocation to AAA oriented funds.

Investment Focus: We recommend to maintain overweight on short term debt funds, preferably with portfolio maturity of 1-3 years.

Maintain focus on high portfolio credit quality.

Focus on Roll-down strategies or 3 year high quality Fixed Maturity Plans (FMPs)

Clients with a long investment horizon of at least 10 years, may look to lock in yields in high quality 10 Year roll down or hold to maturity (HTM) funds.

Source : AMCs, other Financial websites

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Confidential | 20

Recommended Short Term Bond, High Yield & Debt Others Performances

Scheme NameCorpus (In

crs.)6m 1Yr 2Yr Investor Suitability

Short Term 1-3 yrs (Corporate Bond/ Banking & PSU/Short Duration)

Tier IAditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond Fund 15,134 11.25 7.87 7.24 All Risk Profiles except SecureHDFC Short Term Debt Fund 7,316 10.50 7.61 7.07 All Risk Profiles except SecureICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 4,943 9.11 6.43 6.45 All Risk Profiles except SecureICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 7,326 10.15 6.80 6.46 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Tier IIAxis Banking & PSU Debt Fund 3,161 14.65 8.95 8.00 All Risk ProfilesIDFC Banking & PSU Debt Fund 3,078 15.72 9.16 7.38 All Risk ProfilesL&T Triple Ace Bond Fund 578 14.57 7.38 6.15 All Risk ProfilesSundaram Corporate Bond Fund 369 14.25 7.12 6.33 All Risk Profiles

Dynamic Debt (Medium to Long Duration/ Dynamic Bond/Gilt)Tier I

ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 2,018 10.36 7.17 6.72 All Risk Profiles except SecureReliance Gilt Securities Fund 929 15.52 10.10 6.77 All Risk Profiles except SecureSBI Magnum Gilt Fund 1,484 12.62 7.48 5.20 All Risk Profiles except Secure

Tier II

Aditya Birla Sun Life Active Debt Multi Manager FoF Scheme 11 7.35 5.31 7.51 All Risk Profiles except SecureICICI Prudential Bond Fund 2,882 12.39 6.66 5.98 All Risk Profiles

Source: MFI ExplorerReturns are CAGR as on Mar 25, 2019 and for Regular Plans with Growth option. Corpus size is as on Feb, 2019.

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Confidential | 21

DisclaimerThe aforesaid is for information purposes only and should not be construed to be investment advice under SEBI (Investment Advisory) Regulations.

In the preparation of the material contained in this document, Kotak Mahindra Bank has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the Kotak Mahindra Bank and/or its affiliates and which mayhave been made available to Kotak Mahindra Bank and/or its affiliates. Information gathered & material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. KotakMahindra Bank however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and/or completeness of any information. For data reference to any third party in this material nosuch party will assume any liability for the same. Kotak Mahindra Bank and/or any affiliate of Kotak Mahindra Bank does not in any way through this material solicit any offerfor purchase, sale or any financial transaction/commodities/products of any financial instrument dealt in this material. All recipients of this material should before dealingand or transacting in any of the products referred to in this material make their own investigation, seek appropriate professional advice

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